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for important disclosure information at the

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conclusion of this episode. Hi,

0:20

and welcome to The Long View. I'm Christine

0:23

Bens, Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning

0:25

for Morningstar. And I'm

0:27

Amy Arnot, Portfolio Strategist for Morningstar.

0:30

Our guest on the podcast today

0:32

is author and columnist Matt Krantz.

0:34

He's the Personal Finance and Management

0:36

Editor at Investors Business Daily. Prior

0:39

to joining IBD, Matt was a senior

0:41

financial writer for Capital Group. He was

0:44

also a personal finance writer and reporter

0:46

at USA Today for nearly 18 years.

0:49

Matt is also the author of several books,

0:51

including Fundamental Investing for Dummies, Online

0:54

Investing for Dummies, and Retirement Planning

0:56

for Dummies. Matt, welcome

0:58

to The Long View. Thanks for having

1:00

me. Well, thanks for being

1:02

here. I've admired your work for a long

1:05

time. I want to start by talking about

1:07

your personal journey and how you ended up

1:09

writing about investing. Yeah,

1:12

so I went to Miami University in

1:14

Oxford, Ohio, and I was a business

1:16

major. I always worked on the

1:18

college paper and I always really enjoyed journalism.

1:20

So it kind of dawned on me, why

1:23

not just blend them? And it

1:25

was funny because I was

1:27

working at the Daily Herald, which is north

1:29

of Chicago. I was working in Chicago at

1:31

Ernst & Young, which is an accounting firm.

1:34

And the editor-in-chief from Investors Business

1:36

Daily was coming to Chicago. And

1:39

it was such an exciting opportunity.

1:42

We met at Michael Jordan at a

1:44

restaurant in Chicago. Oh,

1:46

yeah, that was back in the 90s, I think. Yeah,

1:49

and it was great. So I met with him

1:51

and we had a great lunch and it worked

1:53

out. And he's like, come and join

1:55

us. So I moved out to LA and met

1:58

William O'Neill and... It was

2:00

great because I was finally able to bring together

2:02

journalism and business, and it was such

2:05

an exciting time to be at Investors Business

2:07

Daily. So,

2:09

can you talk about a book

2:11

or an individual that was especially

2:13

influential in shaping how you think

2:15

about investing? Yeah, a

2:17

couple. I read all the time, so

2:19

I'm constantly reading things. But

2:22

a couple that come to mind would be William

2:24

O'Neill, of course. He was the founder

2:26

of Investors Business Daily. He's no longer with

2:28

us, sadly. But he wrote a book

2:30

called How to Make Money in Stocks. And

2:33

at the time, it was very

2:35

old sacrilege. His

2:37

idea was, you don't need to get

2:39

so wrapped up about how high a P.E. is. I

2:41

mean, you can think about it if you want to.

2:44

But stocks that go up,

2:46

go higher up. They keep going

2:49

up. And people thought he

2:51

was nuts because at the time, everything was about

2:53

value. And if you pay too much, you're going

2:55

to get burned. But

2:57

as we see with today, it's a great example.

3:00

People who thought that Nvidia was too expensive

3:03

three years ago missed one

3:05

of the greatest bull market runs in

3:07

history. Same goes

3:09

with Apple and Tesla.

3:13

Winning stocks do tend to keep going up. And

3:15

granted, you have to know when to sell

3:17

them, too. And he covers that in his book. But

3:20

I thought that was pretty amazing how an idea

3:22

that he had that seemed to be

3:24

so crazy at

3:26

the time now is kind of mainstream.

3:29

Another book that I really enjoy is The

3:31

Four Pillars of Investing, which is on the

3:33

opposite side. That's by William Bernstein.

3:36

And in this book, he

3:38

talks a lot about building a

3:40

portfolio and managing your

3:42

risk and trying to

3:44

get the most optimal returns for the amount

3:46

of risk that you've taken on. So those

3:49

two books are very different, but I think

3:51

they both kind of tell a complete picture

3:53

of how to make money in markets. Yeah,

3:55

we're big fans of Bill Bernstein at Morningstar.

3:58

And I think he's been on the podcast, Kristi. Yes,

4:01

I believe three times. He was our first

4:03

guest and we've had him on a couple

4:05

times subsequently. Yeah, he

4:07

also has a book called The Intelligent

4:09

Asset Allocator, which is a little more techy,

4:13

but those two books together are just, I

4:15

think they're just masterpieces. So

4:19

we wanted to follow up on the O'Neill

4:21

strategy. Do you think it's safe to kind

4:23

of shorthand that as a momentum strategy? I

4:26

think that might be a little

4:29

simplistic because I think you can

4:31

buy ETFs that have momentum factors

4:33

to them and that's part of it. I

4:35

think people like to say that because that's

4:38

part of it, but a lot of these

4:40

momentum factor ETFs don't pay a lot of

4:42

attention to fundamentals. I think that's where people

4:44

get kind of caught by O'Neill's strategy is

4:46

he doesn't just jump into a stock that's going up.

4:48

It has to have the fundamentals too. So the

4:51

William O'Neill strategy skipped out on that

4:53

whole meme stock thing because

4:55

those stocks did not have the fundamentals to back

4:57

it up. So I think

5:00

that's part of it, but that's not the

5:02

whole strategy. So

5:05

if we look at

5:07

IBD's strategy and the things

5:10

that Bill O'Neill was

5:12

looking for, he was looking at

5:14

things like strong earnings

5:16

growth over the most recent quarter

5:18

and the most recent year,

5:20

but also things like profitability,

5:23

revenue growth, high returns

5:25

on equity, as well

5:27

as some more momentum oriented

5:29

factors. Yeah,

5:31

so we have these charts that people

5:33

can get through our subscription services and

5:36

it outlines all these indicators that are important

5:38

and we look at what the institutions are

5:40

doing. We look at relative

5:42

strength versus other stocks. So

5:46

there's various inputs that go into it, but it's not

5:48

just simply did the stock go up a lot. So

5:52

one thing I've sometimes heard about IBD is

5:54

a criticism that it sort of creates this

5:56

dependency like if you buy into this for

5:58

the next year, you can do it. philosophy

6:00

will you also need us on an

6:02

ongoing basis, you know, to tell you

6:04

what to do because the strategy isn't

6:06

super simple to implement as far as I

6:08

understand it. Can you talk about that, Matt? Yeah,

6:11

I guess this could be said

6:13

about any kind of subscription, right? So, like,

6:16

I love music and I subscribe

6:18

to Spotify. Am I dependent

6:20

on Spotify? Maybe. I

6:23

mean, I know when I'm having

6:25

a tough day in the morning, I need to

6:27

get going. I really need

6:29

to turn on that high energy, you know, mix

6:31

to get me kind of going. So, I guess

6:33

in a way and

6:36

I think like even like with Morningstar,

6:38

I mean, it's a subscription service that's

6:40

worth its waiting goal and I have

6:43

never ever met someone

6:45

from mutual fund or a financial

6:47

advisor who said that I don't get

6:50

enormous value out of my Morningstar

6:52

subscription and Morningstar direct. Those

6:54

tools are just so valuable. So, I

6:56

guess one way of saying dependent on

6:59

something is and it's just another way

7:01

of saying it's valuable and

7:03

it's worth. I think if you're into

7:05

music, the subscription to Spotify is worth

7:07

it. There may be alternatives, I don't know, but

7:09

Spotify for me is a good value and it

7:11

delivers and I think that's kind of the case

7:13

with our subscribers with IVD. Yeah,

7:16

I'm totally dependent on Spotify

7:18

now. I basically can't write unless

7:20

I'm listening to music, which

7:23

can be good or bad, I guess. So,

7:26

a lot of people will probably be familiar

7:28

with your work at USA Today where

7:30

you were a reporter for about 18 years. Was

7:34

it a difficult transition for you

7:36

to go from writing for that

7:38

audience to investors business daily, which

7:40

seems to be more geared toward

7:42

kind of investment junkies, you know, who

7:45

are more active traders?

7:47

Well, so what happened is I went to college

7:49

and then I landed my job, my first journalism

7:51

job, my first real job, really. I was hired out

7:54

of Ernst & Young, but I wasn't there that

7:56

long. So, I was writing for

7:58

hardcore investors and what happened was USA

8:01

Today, this is 1999, was like,

8:03

wait a second, there's

8:06

a lot of interest in people buying

8:08

individual stocks. It's not just

8:10

mutual funds anymore because they had a great columnist that

8:12

wrote about mutual funds in like 401ks. So,

8:15

like, well, where can we get some people

8:17

who know about investing in individual stocks? So

8:20

they brought me over to help

8:22

build that part of the business

8:24

at the time that individual investors

8:26

were keenly interested in buying individual stocks.

8:28

So in a way, I was carrying

8:30

over some of the things I learned at

8:32

IBD over to USA Today. So,

8:36

I want to talk about educating people

8:38

about stock picking and fundamental analysis. I've

8:40

seen you present, I think it was

8:43

maybe in front of an AAII group and

8:45

I thought you did such a fantastic

8:47

job explaining things. But

8:50

maybe you can talk about sort of

8:52

the case for individual

8:54

investors, especially being invested in

8:56

a basket of individual stocks versus just

8:58

picking an ETF for a fund. Can

9:01

you talk about how you educate

9:03

around that idea? Yeah,

9:06

really, it comes down to people's

9:08

willingness to put in the time

9:10

and their expectations and their skill.

9:13

So, I would say for most

9:15

people would just a 401k or

9:18

retirement plan, doesn't have a

9:20

lot of time, doesn't have a lot

9:22

of interest, doesn't really care if they beat

9:24

the market or not. I mean,

9:26

you're made to order for mutual funds and ETFs.

9:28

There's just no doubt. You just buy those things,

9:31

low cost, high quality,

9:33

use the Morningstar rankings that are

9:35

available, those are awesome and

9:38

just put it away and forget about it. But

9:41

if you are interested, if you did find

9:43

yourself reading how to make money in stocks

9:46

or you want to get a better return or

9:48

you think you can get a better return or

9:50

you have knowledge of the markets, then

9:52

I don't see any harm

9:54

in kind of moving in that direction and

9:56

see how you do. Most

9:59

people don't track... performance, which is

10:01

a shame. And the brokers don't do

10:03

an amazing job at that. But

10:05

if you maybe do like start with the baby stuff

10:07

and maybe put 10% of your portfolio

10:09

in individual stocks, you see how you do. And

10:12

if you do great, then you might want to do

10:14

more of it. If you don't do great, it

10:17

might be kind of a lesson for you to say,

10:19

stick with the ETFs and the mutual funds. Another

10:22

suggestion that I think is helpful is

10:24

before you buy the stock, you know,

10:27

get a notebook and write down your

10:29

rationale for buying it. And then

10:31

that's a way of kind of holding yourself accountable.

10:33

You can go back and see if you were

10:36

right or not. And I think that can

10:38

also be sort of a learning exercise for

10:40

investors over time. Absolutely. And

10:42

some of the brokers, I think TD Ameritrade,

10:44

which is being absorbed into Schwab, they

10:47

have this paper trading thing. I don't know if

10:49

they still do, but you can find

10:51

these paper trading broker offerings that

10:53

help you really test

10:55

and see how you're doing, which

10:58

I think is really a good exercise. So

11:02

when it comes to your own portfolio,

11:04

do you use individual stocks or are

11:06

there areas where you use mutual funds

11:08

or ETFs instead? So I'm

11:10

kind of unusual and I've been used to this since

11:12

I've been in this business is we're

11:15

highly, I don't think regulated is

11:17

the right word, but we have these

11:19

strong internal rules that we

11:21

can't do certain things with trading. And it's

11:23

just so complicated for me. I

11:25

just buy mutual funds. That's just what I

11:27

do. So I remember

11:29

when I was at USA Today, I wanted to

11:31

write a story about Nike and I couldn't because I

11:33

owned it. And it was at that point, I'm like,

11:36

you know, Matt, this is just not worth it. It's,

11:38

this is interfering with your job just by

11:40

index mutual funds and just kind of do

11:42

your job. Well,

11:45

I wanted to ask about that index versus

11:47

active question with your portfolio sounds

11:50

like you're an indexer. How does

11:52

that square with your day job

11:54

of helping people pick individual stocks?

11:57

If you think that index funds.

12:00

Or maybe better than active. Aren't.

12:02

Active stock portfolio sort of active

12:04

to are very active. Most.

12:07

Of my Russians. mainly because I don't

12:09

want to buy a star that I

12:11

write about. So for me. You.

12:14

Know that makes a lot of sense. Plus we

12:16

do a lot of profiles of managers. Views

12:18

of a major so I wouldn't want anyone

12:20

to say that. Know. I'm only profile

12:23

in his manager because I own. The.

12:25

News. you'll find that he or she runs With

12:28

that said, I mean you guys

12:30

post the data. As a few posts

12:32

is the data. I mean the

12:34

tracker for activist I agree with

12:36

after fees very few. If.

12:39

Any to be the market on a consistent basis. Adidas

12:41

can have been proven out and. If you

12:43

look at the flows. And you

12:45

guys right about this all the time and

12:47

really really smart way. I think

12:49

the flows or just pouring into passive

12:52

because. Of it's you were understanding

12:54

Bad. Light. Is mutual funds

12:56

and like sitting ducks and they have to hold. He.

12:58

Stocks and they can't move the cash when

13:00

they should and eight they have so he

13:02

disappears is over time of versus the low

13:04

fees as you can get from the the

13:06

index times. So.

13:09

He related to the popularity of

13:11

index funds. One criticism that has

13:14

come up is that you know

13:16

you have this handful of large

13:18

companies tech companies that have been

13:20

driving so much of the market

13:22

gains and as results those you

13:24

know handful of companies have become.

13:27

Bigger and bigger positions

13:29

in. Most of that major

13:31

market indexes. is that something that you're

13:33

concerned about? It on. Ivy. We

13:36

look at it and it's higher than

13:38

it has been. It's. Not

13:40

as high as is always ban. I.

13:42

Think to see to. I think a

13:44

lot of to think that the Sep

13:46

Five Hundred is set in stone and

13:48

it doesn't change when in fact it's

13:50

constantly changing. Been super microcomputer, Is

13:53

coming out of nowhere and is be added

13:55

and. So. I think the thing to

13:57

that is that. The. index's

14:00

dynamic and it's evolving. And

14:02

so I think that eventually you're going to

14:04

see other companies come in and fill in

14:07

the gaps. I mean, just look at,

14:09

so Apple, everyone was worried that Apple would fade

14:11

and it has. This year it's down about 10%.

14:15

But as it's fading, Nvidia comes out

14:17

of nowhere and Berkshire

14:19

Hathaway and Eli Lilly. So

14:21

I think that over time our economy

14:24

is so evolving and dynamic that those

14:26

things kind of work themselves out. I

14:28

don't get too concerned about it yet.

14:32

So we want to spend some more time talking

14:34

about the current market environment. But first we just

14:36

want to go over your approach

14:38

to picking stocks, how you think

14:40

people should go about picking stocks.

14:42

You're a big believer in fundamental

14:44

analysis and you wrote

14:46

the fundamental analysis for Dummy's book. So if

14:49

someone is focusing on picking stocks based on

14:51

fundamentals, what are the key ones that you

14:53

think they should home in on? Yeah,

14:56

so I think growth is really important. So

14:58

you want to look at earnings growth and

15:00

revenue growth. You

15:02

want to compare gap earnings to adjusted earnings.

15:04

You don't want to see those get too

15:07

far apart. Return on equity is

15:09

a great measure to see how the management is

15:11

performing. There's just a kind of a

15:13

laundry list of things that you can look at. Those are

15:15

the kind of the big ones, of course. And

15:17

then with the timing, you want

15:19

to make sure you're not buying

15:22

stocks when we call them extended, which is

15:24

when they're like basically straight up in the

15:26

sky. Because a lot of times those do

15:28

pull back and it's better to kind of

15:31

wait until they kind of consolidate. So you

15:34

kind of combine the chart action with the

15:36

fundamentals to kind of pick the best possible

15:38

time to get in. So

15:41

you mentioned the chart action and I

15:43

know that Investors Business Daily puts a

15:45

lot of emphasis on technical analysis. Do

15:48

you look at technicals yourself and are

15:51

there any metrics that you think are

15:53

especially helpful? So

15:55

I'm the editor of Personal Finance, so

15:57

I'm mainly writing for people who buy.

16:00

ETFs and mutual funds. And while you

16:02

can try that kind

16:04

of chart action with ETFs especially,

16:07

for the people that I'm writing for, that's

16:09

not really what they're trying to do. They're

16:11

just trying to pick out great funds and

16:13

hold on to them and build diverse side

16:16

portfolios. So for my corner of the world,

16:18

that's not as important, but we

16:20

do have, as you pointed out, a lot of our

16:22

writers spend a lot of time on that. And

16:25

if you visit our website and read any of

16:27

the articles, they will kind

16:29

of talk about the technical levels that

16:31

they're looking at. But for my corner

16:33

of the publication, we look mostly at

16:35

broader sector themes and

16:38

whatnot. How

16:40

much attention do you think investors should pay

16:42

to what's going on with the broad economy,

16:44

whether the direction of interest

16:47

rates or recession, et cetera?

16:50

It seems like interest rates have been super influential

16:52

in the markets movements over the past couple

16:54

of years. Can you talk about how big

16:57

a role they should play and how

16:59

investors approach their portfolios? Yeah,

17:01

I think it's one of these things where it's important

17:03

to watch it and kind of know what's going on,

17:06

just like you would in, say, you know,

17:08

when you listen to the radio in the

17:10

morning, just to kind of know what's going on in the world,

17:12

just to be kind of an educated investor. But

17:15

I also think you have to have some

17:17

modesty and some reality in that. I

17:19

don't think I've met anyone that's reliably predicted

17:22

interest rate changes in my life. And

17:24

even if they did, it's so random the

17:26

way the markets can react to changes. I

17:29

mean, there was a time

17:31

where when unemployment started rising, the stock market

17:33

started rising because people thought, I don't even

17:35

know, like bad news is good news or

17:37

whatever. So I think it's important to monitor

17:39

it, but don't put too

17:41

much precedence on it in

17:43

your portfolio because the odds of

17:46

you being able to cash in wisely at the right

17:48

time is that great. Yeah,

17:50

I think even a lot of professional

17:53

investors were kind of caught

17:55

up guard by inflation being,

17:57

you know, much higher than

17:59

anyone expected. so quickly and

18:01

I'm cooling off and interest rates

18:03

have been tricky too for professional

18:06

investors. It's

18:08

really hard because you know news is

18:10

random and we don't know what's going

18:12

to come out you know day-to-day and

18:14

to try to convert that into like

18:16

a gain ahead of time is like really

18:18

tough. Yeah. So

18:21

we know a lot of individual investors

18:23

who put a lot of emphasis

18:25

on dividend paying stocks as a

18:27

way of creating cash flows for

18:29

retirement. Is that a good

18:31

strategy in your opinion? Okay.

18:35

That's a tough one. That's a great

18:37

question. So a couple answers to that.

18:39

So I do think that

18:41

people don't pay enough attention to dividends. They

18:44

account for about a third of the market's

18:46

total return over time. That's a powerful

18:48

force and what's also great about them

18:50

is in that down year usually

18:52

your only source of any kind of return at

18:54

all is the dividend. So in

18:57

that way it offers some buffer and I love

18:59

it when my index mutual funds pay dividends

19:01

because it's kind of like reassuring and it's

19:04

this nice kind of return

19:06

when everything else is going wrong. With

19:08

that said, I've

19:10

seen absolute horror stories of people

19:13

chasing yield. Specific gas and

19:15

electric is just makes me want to just cry.

19:17

I mean people were chasing that

19:19

for the... I think it's like a double

19:21

digit dividend yield and

19:23

it's from a utility in Northern

19:27

California. I mean how...

19:29

that's like money in the bank. I mean

19:31

how could you not score on

19:33

that? And it was a complete

19:35

disaster. I mean and that

19:37

happens actually more times than you think. I can't

19:39

think of any other examples off the top of

19:42

my head but it's actually fairly common. So I think

19:44

that dividends are awesome long

19:47

term and if you have

19:49

a diversified basket of dividend paying stocks then you

19:51

can get those in ETFs and mutual funds. I

19:53

think it can work out all right but

19:56

if you start chasing yield you're

19:58

just asking for a world of hurt. So

20:01

earlier, Matt, you mentioned that a good

20:04

starting point for investors who might want

20:06

to dabble in individual stocks is just

20:08

start building a small portfolio. One

20:11

thing I see sometimes in investors' portfolios

20:13

is that they have this basket

20:16

of stocks that really duplicates what's

20:18

in their mutual funds, and oftentimes

20:20

they've doubled down on the most

20:22

expensive stocks in the mutual funds.

20:24

So you might see Apple and

20:26

then Nvidia and so forth. Do

20:29

you see that problem? And how do you caution

20:32

investors to not run into that?

20:35

Yeah, that's actually pretty common. I

20:38

think people like to own certain stocks.

20:40

So when I walk around my block at

20:42

my house or around the office, and you just

20:44

talk to people, and they all

20:46

want to brag about how they own Nvidia. They

20:48

all want to brag about how they owned Apple

20:50

whenever the iPhone came out. So I think

20:53

that's human nature. I don't really

20:55

see it's a problem unless they hold these

20:57

things too long and they're getting killed on

20:59

them when they crash. And

21:02

I don't really see a problem unless

21:04

it becomes ridiculously overweighted. Most people

21:07

when they say they own a lot of something,

21:09

they actually really don't. They might own like 100

21:11

shares. They're like, Oh, I'm loaded up to the

21:13

gills. I think it's a bragging thing. Yeah, more

21:16

like bragging rights, I was going to say. I

21:18

think that's what it is. Because when I actually see

21:21

people's portfolios, it's a lot more timid

21:23

than they try to indicate usually. So

21:27

in addition to stocks, what other

21:29

kind of building blocks do you

21:31

think belong in most investors portfolios?

21:35

I'm a huge fan of ETFs. I think

21:37

those are just things of

21:39

beauty. I mean, they're just incredible. The

21:42

costs are low. They're easy to trade.

21:44

You don't have to open accounts with like a

21:46

zillion different mutual fund companies. You

21:49

can get pretty much any flavor you want.

21:51

You can play it straight with SVP 500,

21:53

like super low cost, or you can

21:56

specialize a little bit like I was surprised

21:58

to see that the QQQ that just

22:00

turned 10 years old has outperformed

22:03

just about every other major US diversified.

22:05

And that's according to Morningstar Direct. And

22:08

that is incredible. And that's kind of

22:10

an easy ETF to buy as

22:12

high liquidity, low spreads.

22:15

I mean, that's just like, it's

22:17

just, it doesn't get any better than that. So I really,

22:20

I think ETF should be really a

22:22

big piece of most people's portfolio. How

22:26

about at the asset class level? Are

22:28

there categories like fixed income?

22:30

For example, if I have an equity

22:32

portfolio, what other asset classes should belong

22:34

to my portfolio? Yeah. So

22:38

that's a tough one. So I think

22:40

if you read the textbooks and

22:42

you read like the Nobel laureate

22:44

work and the modern portfolio theory,

22:46

you should have, yes, if

22:49

you found a hundred large growth, you should have

22:51

large value, small value, value,

22:53

small international emerging, trying to

22:56

think of a real bond.

22:59

The textbook says that. And

23:01

it makes sense when you run the map and you look at

23:03

the correlation between the asset classes

23:05

and you can lower your risk and you

23:08

get on that efficient frontier and it's all

23:10

gravy. But in reality, it's

23:12

so hard because it hasn't worked out that

23:14

way at all. I mean, large

23:16

growth is completely dominated. So

23:19

I think my

23:21

advice to people is to have

23:23

a diversified portfolio with a different,

23:25

you know, small, large value, growth,

23:27

blend, international emerging bond.

23:30

But I do take it with

23:33

a grain of salt because that strategy has not really

23:35

worked for a long time. I mean, 15, 20 years.

23:40

Yeah. So international, I think is

23:42

another great example of

23:44

that where the theory is you

23:46

should diversify and have,

23:48

you know, maybe at least a third of

23:50

your assets outside of the U.S. But if

23:53

you did that, it's pretty much, you know,

23:55

been a huge drag on your returns over

23:58

the past 15 years. So

24:01

what's your take on that? Do you think that

24:03

the benefit of international

24:05

diversification is overrated or is

24:08

it still worth having a

24:10

non-US allocation to stocks? You

24:12

know, that is a great question and I've been

24:14

thinking about that a lot. My

24:17

own portfolio, I do have a complete

24:19

spread. So I've got value, I've got

24:21

international, I've got emerging. But

24:23

I do have to be really

24:25

patient. I mean, all the statistics

24:27

and the studies that find that

24:29

these asset classes have value usually

24:32

run back to the early 1900s. And

24:36

so we were just looking, I think they call

24:38

it recency bias, is that

24:40

recently only large cap growth has

24:43

worked. And I think

24:45

if some people, you know, Jack Bogle always

24:47

made the case, I'll never forget,

24:50

he used to really take issue with this

24:52

whole idea of owning eight or nine asset

24:55

classes. Like all you need is the S&P 500 and a

24:57

bond index. And

24:59

I think if that's your strategy and you stick with

25:01

it, I think it's going to be okay. But

25:04

if you're going to want a broader

25:06

diversification, I think it's probably better, but

25:08

you have to be even more patient because you

25:10

can go 20, 30 years

25:13

before some of these asset classes do, you know,

25:15

do anything. So I think that it comes down to

25:17

patients, right? With that said, I don't have a problem

25:19

with people that just buy an S&P 500 and a

25:21

bond index. I

25:23

always tell people to do. So

25:26

all the headlines about the 60-40 portfolio

25:29

being dead, do you think that's a

25:31

little overdone? I

25:33

think that is. That was really

25:35

due to one bad year or two bad years.

25:38

Over time, that portfolio does fine. I

25:41

do think that it may

25:43

be a little bit too conservative for more people.

25:45

Like I've met someone who was in their

25:47

20s and he had a 60-40 portfolio. To

25:50

me, that's a little bit plain, a little bit too safe.

25:53

I think that's another thing that people could do a

25:55

lot is they play it too safe.

25:58

They avoid as much risk as they can. as possible.

26:01

And I think that's a real shame to see, especially when you

26:03

have time on your side when you're only 20 and you don't

26:05

need the money for another 40, 50, 60 years, that's your

26:09

chance to take some risk. And those

26:11

returns early on can really pay off later

26:14

when you then can afford to dial back

26:16

your risk. So

26:18

one thing I've been wondering about international is

26:20

whether it's sort of an indirect value

26:23

play in a way in that, you

26:25

know, the sector composition of non US

26:27

indexes is pretty different from

26:29

the US market today. Have you thought

26:32

about that, Matt, thought about how

26:34

like rebalancing into international potentially

26:37

gets you a little bit more exposure

26:39

to value in some areas that have

26:41

just not performed especially well? Yeah,

26:44

I mean, I think the really great

26:46

example that's Novo Nordisk, right with their

26:49

miracle weight loss drug, that

26:51

stock is it's now the most valuable company

26:53

in Europe. That's a healthcare

26:56

play. That's a stock that no one

26:58

even cared about before. So that

27:00

would be like your ultimate value

27:02

play. With that said, man,

27:05

international has been so moribund

27:07

for so long. But

27:09

I guess it does go with the value. That's a really

27:12

good point. I wouldn't mind looking at that some more, but

27:14

I think you're right on that. So

27:17

we also wanted to circle back

27:19

to the current market environment and

27:21

talk about some of the trends

27:23

you're seeing there. So, you know,

27:25

looking at what's been driving the market

27:27

lately, if you look at the technology

27:29

sector, I think it's up about 60%

27:32

over the past 12 months. Does that, you know,

27:37

worry you at all? Or does it remind

27:39

you of the tech bubble in the late

27:41

1990s? When I think you

27:44

were writing about investing back in 1999? Yeah,

27:49

another great question. I think

27:51

there's similarities, but it's different. And people always say it's

27:53

different this time. So I'm going to have fun with

27:55

that. I think it is different this time. But

27:58

you have to remember back in the In 1999,

28:00

the USA Today, we had this index called

28:02

the USA Today Internet 100 Index. We

28:05

actually had 100 internet companies.

28:09

The only ones you would have heard of would be like Amazon.

28:13

There used to be a e-toys. There

28:15

used to be a website that was

28:18

publicly traded that only sold toys. It

28:20

was just crazy. pets.com,

28:22

I think was another. pets.com,

28:24

that's another classic. We looked

28:27

at it and what happened was the

28:29

business models actually didn't work. They

28:33

were losing money. They had no margins. They

28:35

had no return on equity. Someone

28:37

didn't even have revenue. But

28:39

compare that to today. We were

28:42

talking about companies that have

28:44

made more profit than any other companies

28:46

in the history of the country. They

28:49

have nothing really stopping them. There's

28:52

no one in the way of Nvidia right

28:54

now. They're so far advanced

28:57

in their AI chips and their Bitcoin

28:59

chips. It's just amazing. These

29:01

are businesses that we've never really seen

29:03

before. Totally different than

29:06

the pets.com. You have to remember

29:08

when stocks go up, they have

29:10

the component that's tied to the fundamentals and then

29:13

they have the part that's tied to the speculation.

29:16

Back in the 90s, it was all speculative return.

29:19

Today there's some speculative return, but there's

29:21

a lot of fundamental return as well.

29:25

With that said, stocks can get overdone.

29:27

There's no question. It wouldn't surprise me

29:29

at all if some of these stocks come off. They

29:31

always do. Look at Apple. Apple's way

29:34

down. There will be new entrants. There

29:36

will be new competition. I

29:38

think there's a lot of exciting things with AI

29:40

going on in Europe of all places. That

29:42

could be really interesting, but these

29:45

companies are profit machines and that is

29:47

completely different than the 90s. I

29:51

wanted to ask about the

29:53

AI area specifically, whether you

29:55

think that's a bubble. It sounds like you

29:57

don't, but how can investors kind

29:59

of... to protect themselves in case

30:01

there is a downdraft in that area.

30:05

And to be fair, there will be a downdraft.

30:07

Just like with the internet, the internet was real. I

30:10

mean, it revolutionized everything. I mean, we're

30:12

having this interview right now over a system that

30:14

probably didn't even exist and is due to the

30:16

internet. It just takes time and

30:19

it took a long time for businesses

30:21

to figure out how to make money off the internet. It

30:23

took a long time for companies to figure out how to

30:25

integrate it. These things take a long

30:27

time. That was the case with the railroad too. I

30:29

mean, it took a long time before companies figured

30:31

out how to implement these or the typewriter

30:34

or all these things. So

30:36

there's a lot of false starts and there's

30:38

a lot of great ideas that never pan out

30:40

and there's great ideas that become featured in a

30:42

set of companies. So there's going to

30:44

be enormous turnover and there's going to be

30:47

heartbreak and pain and there's going to

30:49

be all kinds of crashes and

30:51

bubbles in AI because

30:54

it's such an exciting thing. But

30:56

the fact of the matter is AI is

30:58

going to revolutionize things. It is so powerful.

31:01

What I think is so amazing about it is with

31:03

the internet, people had to kind of figure it out

31:05

and they had to download their browser and do all

31:07

that stuff with AI. You

31:10

can be just typing in a natural language query

31:12

and have it generate an image for you or

31:14

a video or an article. So

31:16

I think it's going to have a huge impact. But with that

31:18

said, I think it's not going to be

31:20

a slam dunk for every investor. So

31:24

related to that, we've been hearing

31:26

from portfolio managers who manage

31:29

small cap funds or international

31:31

or value that they think those

31:33

areas are the most attractive they've been

31:35

in a couple decades. So

31:37

do you think there's anything to suggest

31:40

that we might see market rotation away

31:42

from the US tax stocks

31:44

that are driving the market and into

31:46

some of those areas? People

31:49

were telling me that last year, they

31:51

were telling me that five years ago and it

31:54

still hasn't happened. The

31:56

fact that they're saying that makes me think that we're

31:58

still not there yet. Usually. These

32:01

rallies come outta nowhere I can remember.

32:03

After the internet bubble burst and ninety

32:05

nine commodities in emerging markets came on

32:07

outta nowhere, no one was expecting it,

32:09

know, and owned it. They.

32:12

Com Bricks at the time. It

32:14

was such a shock to everybody. And

32:16

the same was with Bitcoin right? That came out

32:18

of nowhere. So. I think once

32:20

he will stop saying that there's mb of recovery

32:22

Had small cabin valued international. As for I went

32:24

to laugh and but are they were there yet.

32:28

To ask about the role of

32:30

passes funds and all of this

32:33

passive fund flows. As you noted

32:35

earlier, Matt have been going heavily

32:37

to the he know a broad

32:39

market index products and I guess

32:41

I'm curious to get your take

32:43

on whether that is driving some

32:45

other concentration in that big tech

32:47

stocks because says index fund investors

32:49

are just sort of inherently valuation

32:51

insensitive right? that they're just buying

32:53

the index and so the index

32:55

has to buy the stocks and

32:57

that helps. Tried the stacks up. Have

32:59

you thought about the interplay there? You.

33:02

Know I've been meaning to look into that. I

33:04

think it's a really. Important question?

33:06

I don't know the answer. You

33:09

know the indexes are markets have waited so

33:11

big gets bigger. But. There's also

33:13

turning around it so. I

33:15

see people think that be sauce can only go

33:17

up because the indexes are by on boat. if

33:19

you look at apple we keep going back to

33:22

ice down ten percent. And it's

33:24

getting bought like crazy by the same index is that

33:26

are buying and video so. We're. They have

33:28

a little bit of faith at the. Market. Structure

33:30

that underlies all this stuff. works about the

33:32

fundamentals do matter and even have a. Nobody

33:35

has terrible fundamentals, puts it in

33:37

index. A stock is still going

33:39

to go down. Cited. As cities

33:42

where the that apple with should be down

33:44

to two percent idol now. I'm

33:46

but hopefully some academics was. or take a

33:48

look at the services as a question. Another

33:52

big market trends. We've seen

33:55

recently. Is that huge? Rebounds

33:57

in crypto and and

33:59

Bitcoin. we're taping this in the second

34:01

week of March, it just crossed over $72,000. So

34:06

what's your take on cryptocurrency? Have

34:08

you added any to your own

34:10

portfolio? I don't

34:12

buy it, but I do watch

34:14

it. And I think everyone does, but a couple

34:17

of things with that. So going

34:19

back to the point where things rally when no one's

34:21

expecting it a lot of times, that's

34:23

totally the case with Bitcoin. I think if

34:25

you ask most people, they think, oh yeah,

34:27

Bitcoin, didn't that crash last year? They

34:29

don't even know it's come back. And that's kind of

34:32

how these things work. With that said,

34:34

Bitcoin didn't do what it was supposed to

34:36

do. It was supposed to

34:38

be a form of store of value, which

34:40

it totally failed at miserably. It

34:42

didn't do that. It was supposed to be an inflation hedge. It

34:44

didn't do that either. And it

34:46

was supposed to be a form of payment, and it still

34:49

hasn't panned off for that. So I

34:51

think it's really just a scarcity play. And

34:53

that scares people, and I get that. It

34:56

scares me. But if you think

34:58

about it, what is gold? It's just a rock.

35:00

Some people don't even think it's that pretty. It's

35:03

just a rock that people dig out of the ground. The

35:05

only reason it really has value, and it's had

35:07

value for centuries, is because of scarcity. So

35:11

maybe Bitcoin is going to be

35:13

kind of like play the role of gold in

35:15

some portfolios for some people. I don't know gold

35:17

either. But I think that might

35:19

be what's going on. Yeah,

35:22

I know that's been an assertion. I guess the sort

35:24

of counterpoint is, well, there are all

35:26

these other cryptocurrencies, and I could create

35:28

a cryptocurrency rate so that, to

35:31

me, kind of diminishes the scarcity argument,

35:33

doesn't it? It does,

35:35

except I think right now why we

35:37

saw Bitcoin go parabolic was the fact

35:39

that it's getting a set of ETFs.

35:41

I think there's 11 of them, and

35:43

they're all backed by big companies like

35:45

iShares and whatnot. You

35:47

don't have that yet with the other cryptocurrencies. That's

35:49

going to change. I think Ethereum is in the

35:51

process of getting an ETF. I

35:54

think what it does is it makes it more legit, and it

35:56

makes it easier for people to put like 1%

35:58

of their portfolio in it. You

36:00

don't have to open a wallet with some

36:02

crazy crypto exchange, you just buy it

36:04

through your broker's account. And

36:07

right now Bitcoin's the only one that has that.

36:10

But I think once that broadens out, you could

36:12

see some of these other cryptos

36:14

doing pretty well as well with scarcity. With

36:16

scarcity, I don't know if that's like a

36:18

lasting investment thesis. It isn't for me. Like

36:21

I said, I don't own gold either. So

36:25

we also wanted to talk about some of

36:27

the other areas that you write about. So

36:30

financial planning, retirement planning. I

36:33

think one topic you wrote about recently is the

36:35

fact that there's so much fear and discouragement

36:38

about retirement savings. Can you talk

36:40

a little bit more about that?

36:43

Yeah, it breaks my heart when I meet

36:45

people and they're like, I'll never be able to retire. I'll

36:48

never be able to. It is not even going to

36:50

happen. It's one thing if people don't

36:52

want to retire, but it breaks my heart when people think

36:54

they can't. Because

36:56

the fact of the matter is you can if you start early

36:59

to do the right things. And it's not that hard now to

37:01

do the right things. I feel bad for

37:03

people 23 years ago. There

37:05

were no ETFs. Fees were

37:08

sky high. You had to work for these

37:10

expensive brokers who actively threw

37:12

your advisors, but they're really selling you product.

37:14

I mean, that was tough. I'm

37:16

sure things will get better, but we don't really have

37:18

those problems today. You can

37:20

set up an account right now

37:23

with very little effort, very little

37:26

cost. If you don't want to

37:28

pick out your portfolio, you can get a robo-advisor to

37:30

do it really cheaply. The key is

37:32

to just get started. Don't

37:36

worry about the fact that you're probably going to need

37:38

to save a couple million dollars. If you start now,

37:40

you'll be shocked at how quickly this

37:42

is. Einstein has that famous quote, right?

37:45

Compounding is the most powerful force in the universe.

37:47

And it's totally true. If you just

37:49

sit down with a spreadsheet and just run the numbers, you'll

37:52

be amazed at how much money you can make if

37:54

you start as soon as you can, which

37:56

I really hope people will do. Are

37:59

there others? other key pieces of advice in addition

38:01

to the like getting started and sticking with it?

38:04

Are there any other key things

38:06

that you always tell investors when

38:08

you're doing educational sessions with them? I

38:11

think we talked about it earlier is you have to

38:13

be patient. I mean, there will be times when your

38:15

portfolio is going to go against you and it's going

38:18

to go the wrong way. And it's so easy to

38:20

say, this is, this is not working and pull your

38:22

money out. But I think people

38:24

have to be patient and they have to pick

38:26

a strategy. So we talked about that as well.

38:28

If you're going to go with the multiple asset

38:30

classes at international and emerging and all that, stick

38:33

with it. Don't keep switching it around. You don't

38:35

say, Oh, well, large cap growth

38:37

is all that matters. I'm going to switch

38:39

and then switch to that. Then you'll inevitably

38:41

see valuables are rallying. So you have to

38:44

be patient. You have to be kind of

38:46

persistent. And I think if you

38:48

start early enough, you're going to get where

38:50

you need to be. What's

38:52

your take on target date funds? It seems like

38:54

that's a way that people can kind of, you

38:57

know, choose a fund that is appropriate

38:59

for when they are planning

39:02

to retire and then just sort of set it

39:04

and forget it. You

39:06

know, I'm on mixed mind on those. I

39:08

love the simplicity. And I think for a

39:10

lot of people, they're better than nothing. I

39:12

think they make it look so simple. And

39:14

I was looking at ICI numbers. I'm just

39:17

shocked at how popular those are. Almost

39:19

every plan offers them. And I think a

39:21

huge percentage of younger investors, specifically

39:23

use them. But

39:26

what kind of bums me out about

39:28

them is I've been offered some of

39:30

my life through 401k plans. Some

39:32

of them are pretty darn lousy. I've

39:35

seen some with huge fees, with terrible

39:37

mixes, with either mixes that are

39:39

too aggressive in my mind or way too

39:41

conservative. And I think a lot

39:43

of people just buy them and they don't look

39:46

at them and they just assume that they're okay.

39:48

In those cases, people be better off not using

39:50

them. So I think they're great.

39:53

If you're not going to do anything and you

39:55

do a target date, you're better off. But

39:58

if you were going to build a smart portfolio. portfolio

40:00

and you just out of laziness get the

40:02

target date, then I think you might be

40:04

doing yourself a disservice and you really, really need to take

40:06

the time to look at what's in those things. Yeah,

40:09

I guess the good news is it does seem

40:11

like fund flows are strongly favoring the good

40:13

series. So Vanguard series,

40:16

Fidelity's Index series, they have been getting

40:18

the lion's share of target date fund

40:20

assets as far as we can tell. Absolutely.

40:23

And Morningstar does such a great job

40:25

of tracking this. I love this one

40:27

statistic that Morningstar puts out, talking about

40:29

how the lowest cost funds get the

40:32

most flows, which really is

40:34

encouraging to me because that makes me think that we're

40:36

getting through to people, right,

40:38

at Morningstar, that you guys are

40:40

really making an impact and people are listening to

40:42

what you're saying about, you know, fees

40:45

matter. They matter a lot, especially over a long

40:47

period of time. And I think most

40:49

people, as your data shows, are paying

40:51

attention. Yeah, I think it

40:53

is encouraging. And, you know, there was a period

40:56

of time, you know, 20 or

40:58

30 years ago when we saw a

41:00

lot of assets still invested in funds

41:03

with high expense ratios or front end

41:05

loads, back end loads, but that

41:08

trend is definitely reversed.

41:10

So I think that's a

41:12

nice thing to see for investors. And

41:15

Morningstar, you guys definitely deserve credit on that. I

41:17

mean, you guys were on the vanguard of pointing

41:19

out those high fees. So hats off

41:21

to you. Oh, thank you. That's,

41:24

yeah, it's been great to see the results. So

41:28

with retirement planning, if

41:30

somebody is trying to figure out how much do

41:32

I need to save to retire or what should

41:36

my portfolio value be

41:38

before I retire? Is there

41:40

any software or tools that

41:42

you think are particularly helpful

41:45

for individual investors trying to figure that

41:47

out? Absolutely. So I'm

41:49

kind of old school, but I'm kind of

41:51

glad about it now. I'm a diehard user

41:53

of Qcknd. And I know people are like,

41:56

Oh man, that this guy, wow. Where

41:58

does he also have a model? I mean,

42:01

it's like, but I've never found a

42:03

tool that's as powerful as Quicken.

42:05

It's a little harder to learn, but once

42:07

you learn it, it just gives

42:09

you so much control. What I like

42:11

about Quicken is two things. First of all, it tracks

42:14

everything, right? It tracks your portfolio. It'll

42:17

tell you how you're doing, which we

42:19

talked about earlier. It'll also tell you how

42:21

much you need. It'll tell you how much you're spending. And

42:23

it really makes it easy to figure that out. And

42:26

you're in control of your own data. So

42:29

unlike Intuit, which decided to just

42:31

close Mint, you don't really

42:33

have to worry about that with Quicken because the data

42:35

is on your drive and you control it, which

42:37

is really important. The other tool

42:40

I kind of like is, I

42:42

know this is maybe simplistic, but I

42:44

love Vanguard's retirement planning tool.

42:46

I think it's pretty smart. It

42:48

gives you a really good idea how you're doing and whether or

42:50

not you're going to have money to retire. It's

42:53

super simple to use. I

42:55

think it's a lot more sophisticated than it looks like on the front

42:57

end. I think there's a lot going on in the back end. And

43:00

it just gives you kind of a comfort level of where

43:02

you're at and if you're saving it up. Those

43:05

two tools together are pretty killer in my opinion. I

43:08

wanted to ask about investing

43:10

online and online brokers. You've

43:13

written a lot about this topic. You've written

43:15

a book on this topic. Can

43:17

you talk about how people should

43:20

vet online brokers, you know, where they

43:22

should do their business and what are the

43:24

key factors that should be on their dashboards?

43:27

Yeah, so that's really a taste issue. So just for

43:29

fun, I like opening accounts and just trying to kick

43:31

in the tires and they make it really easy to

43:34

do that. A lot of the brokers, you don't even

43:36

have to put money in them anymore. And

43:38

I think that's a really good way to try it. So

43:40

it's like if you buy a new bike, right? You want

43:42

to try it out because even if you

43:44

ask someone, you know, do you like this bike or that

43:46

bike? It really, you have a different body shape,

43:49

you know, you pedal differently,

43:51

you wear different shoes. So you

43:53

really don't know until you actually ride around the block a

43:55

couple of times. I think the same goes

43:57

for the brokers. And I've opened up, like I said,

43:59

like I've opened up accounts, I never really funded, but

44:01

I just opened them up to see what they were

44:04

like. And I can tell which ones

44:06

I like and which ones I prefer. And

44:08

I think that's really the best way to do it. So

44:12

are there any specific names that you would

44:14

mention as, you know, standing out as being

44:17

easier to use or having other good quality?

44:21

Yeah, so I've been a long time

44:23

customer of TD Ameritrade and it

44:26

just kind of suited me. It's just going to fit and

44:28

I've been with them for a lot of time and they

44:30

were always aggressive on fees. They were one of the first

44:32

to go to zero and they were always aggressive in pushing

44:34

down fees. They're being kind of

44:36

pulled into Schwab. So that should

44:39

be interesting to see how that goes. Schwab has said

44:41

that they're going to keep thinkorswim, which is a great

44:43

tool for more active investors.

44:46

So we'll see how that goes. In terms of fun,

44:48

I think Robinhood is just a

44:50

lot of fun. I like opening the

44:53

app. I don't really have any money and I think I

44:55

have a $5 in there. They

44:57

do such a great job of making

44:59

it like a video game and kind

45:02

of entertaining and kind of colorful and

45:04

honestly joyful that I kind of I applaud. I

45:06

think they've had a huge impact on the industry. I've

45:08

noticed ever since they came around, a lot

45:10

of the brokers have done a better job of

45:12

cleaning up their interfaces. With

45:15

that said, I think Vanguard is getting better.

45:19

They're so darn popular that I

45:21

think they're having some customer service issues. I think you

45:23

guys have written about that. They're just

45:25

so popular and there's some kind of rough edges in

45:27

their interface that you kind of run into. You're like,

45:30

wow, this screen looks like it was made

45:32

a while ago. But I think they're

45:34

improving and there's new leadership there. So we'll see

45:36

what happens there. Yeah. What

45:38

about Robo Advisors? Have you opened any accounts

45:41

to kind of check those out? You

45:44

know, I did back when I first wrote

45:46

one of my early editions of Investing Online

45:48

for Dummies that I tried them out. But

45:51

what I found lately is that that

45:53

has become kind of a feature. It

45:56

used to be you'd have to open an account with

45:58

like a wealth front or a betterment. to get that

46:00

kind of capability. But now you

46:03

can just get that right through your existing

46:05

broker, be that Vanguard or whoever else. So

46:08

I'm glad that the pure plays are still in there. And

46:10

I think they do this on edges for some people and

46:13

they're definitely worth looking at and they do some things better.

46:15

Um, but for a lot of people that just

46:17

want to go Robo, they can just do

46:20

it through their existing broker. So

46:22

when you say go Robo, you mean having

46:24

kind of a prebuilt diversified

46:26

portfolio that's appropriate

46:29

for your risk tolerance

46:31

and time horizon. Yeah.

46:33

So if you have an account, say at Vanguard,

46:35

they have different offerings now and you can push a

46:37

button and you pay a fee. I can't remember what

46:40

it is, but they'll build your portfolio for you.

46:42

Or if you pay a little

46:44

bit more, they'll build your portfolio for you. And then

46:47

you can consult with a live advisor. I'm pretty sure.

46:49

So I think you can get all that stuff like

46:52

right from the main line brokers without kind of going

46:54

with these other ones with that said, I don't want

46:56

to spare it to the pure play Robo

46:58

advisors. I think they do a good job.

47:00

And in some cases they're superior choices, but

47:03

you'd have to really look and see what your use case is.

47:07

Well, Matt, this has been such a great conversation. I

47:09

know we've put you through your paces on a lot

47:11

of different topics. Thank you so much for joining

47:13

us today. Thanks for having me. Thanks

47:16

again, Matt. Thank

47:20

you for joining us on the long view. If

47:22

you could please take a moment to subscribe

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47:33

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47:41

Cassidy is our engineer for the podcast

47:44

and Terry Gretchen produces the show notes

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47:48

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a comment or a guest idea, please email

47:52

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47:57

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