0:00

The shocking math how bitcoin

0:02

will reach forty three billion

0:04

dollars. We're going to break down the math.

0:06

Now, in life, there are no such things on certainties.

0:09

There's only probabilities, and we bet

0:11

on those probabilities every single day.

0:13

That's exactly what markets are. And Bitcoin

0:16

has beaten the odds over and over. It's

0:18

been called dead hundreds of times, it's

0:20

crashed dozens of times, and yet it

0:22

keeps coming back stronger every single

0:24

time. And now today it's crossing what

0:27

we call the chasm as we see Blackrock

0:29

and Fidelity adding millions of people.

0:32

We have three US presidential candidates

0:35

openly discussing bitcoin, and so

0:37

today for those of you with an open

0:39

mind and are willing to understand that

0:41

again, everything in life is a probability, I'm

0:43

going to break down the math. I'm going to break

0:46

down the future potential of Bitcoin like

0:48

it's never been done before. I'm going to show you

0:50

the odds. I'm going to show you the path it will take.

0:52

We're going to look at the different price points along

0:54

the way, the timeframes, and of course

0:57

how to play this. If you're a huge

0:59

bitcoin skeptic or you're a diehard

1:01

bitcoin believer either way, this is

1:03

for you, So let's go. All

1:05

right, welcome back. If you're new to the channel, my name is Mark

1:07

Moss. I make these videos, of course, to change

1:10

the way you think about money, because

1:12

almost everything you've learned is wrong and it's

1:14

changing. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking

1:16

about a new form of money, and most people don't

1:18

understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who

1:20

will hear about later, he likes to say

1:23

that it's very hard to see a new

1:25

system, to understand a new system when you're

1:27

stuck in an existing system. So look, I

1:29

get it. It's difficult. So have an

1:31

open mind. Now if you want the short

1:33

answer, where is it going? I'm going to break

1:35

the down the math to how we get to forty

1:38

three billion and for

1:40

some of us in our lifetime. All right, I'm going to break

1:42

down the math, the path, all that. But first I want to tell

1:44

you a story. Last night I was watching

1:46

a brand new TV show. I think it was called The

1:48

Tracker. It's not super good. It was

1:50

okay, it was the very first episode that I saw. But

1:52

there's this guy and he goes and finds people

1:54

like people have rewards and bounties, things like

1:57

that, but he would throughout the show he kept

1:59

saying, if we go now, we have a ninety five

2:01

percent chance, but if we wait an hour, we only

2:03

have a five percent chance. If I hurry up and get

2:05

you out now, I think we have a fifty percent chance. But if

2:07

we wait, and he kept talking about probabilities

2:09

all the time, we have a probability of this. Now

2:12

if we wait, my probability drops to this. And

2:14

probably I don't know, three, four or five times throughout the show

2:16

he would do that, And that's how life is.

2:19

So the first thing I want to let you know is that all right.

2:21

So the problem that I see too many people making is they think

2:23

very linear. Everything's black or white, it's this

2:26

or that, there's no way this can happen, or

2:28

there's no way this can happen. And that's not how life works.

2:30

Okay, there's a world of possibilities.

2:33

Everything is possible, and then there's probabilities

2:36

or percentages that we think that this can

2:39

happen. So you may be the biggest Bitcoin

2:41

skeptic in the world, but still ask

2:43

yourself this question, are you one

2:46

hundred percent sure, one hundred

2:48

percent guaranteed there's no way bitcoin

2:50

will ever succeed from here, And of course the answer is no, you

2:52

can't say that. Now you might say there's a ninety

2:54

percent chance, Okay, great, then that ten percent

2:56

you might want to listen, all right, does that makes sense? So think

2:59

about things in terms of and let

3:01

me break this down for you in what's going to be

3:03

a masterclass. So the short answer is, like

3:05

I said, forty three billion. If you just want

3:07

to shut it off right now, you could have just read the title. But let

3:09

me break down the mas for you. But more for than they said,

3:11

how does it get there? And when?

3:14

When does it happen? I bet those are the questions

3:16

that you want to know, and that's what I'm going to

3:18

break down. Okay, So if we start to break

3:20

this down, the very first thing we have to understand is

3:22

what is it? When in Silicon Valley

3:24

about fifteen years ago, when they were trying to raise money for

3:26

Uber, they would go, Hey, I have this new

3:29

app I'm building. I want to raise one hundred million,

3:31

and they'd say, what is it? Right, I'm

3:33

a venture capital investor of investing in venture

3:35

cap for probably over a dozen years now, that's

3:37

what we do what is it?

3:39

So?

3:40

First of all, what is bitcoin? Is

3:43

it a brand new technology? Sure,

3:45

yeah, it's technology. What is

3:47

it disrupting? So, okay, it's an app. Uber

3:50

is an app. What is it disrupting. It's disrupting

3:52

the taxi industry, the limo industry,

3:54

the ride share industry. And then we look

3:57

at how big those markets are, and

3:59

then we look at how much we think you can pull from those

4:01

We're going to break the math down in a minute.

4:03

But first, what is it? So? Yes,

4:05

it's a brand new technology, it's an app. What is

4:07

it doing? Well, it's sort of like money, a medium

4:09

of exchange. The white paper says it's peer

4:12

to peer cash, electronic cash, so we

4:14

exchange it for money and meaning of exchange. It's

4:16

also a store of value, as

4:18

we call an soov. All right

4:21

now, it is winning the war of store value, which

4:23

eventually could evolve into the next stage. I'm

4:25

going to break that evolutionary path down for

4:27

you so you can see the timeframe. But

4:29

let's just talk about the store value because I

4:31

want to simplify this, and I

4:34

know it sounds crazy, but I'm going to make it sound very conservative

4:36

so we could overshoot it. So let's just

4:39

talk about the store of value

4:41

right now, all right, so what we can see mini

4:44

headlines that can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs,

4:46

one of the biggest financial institutions in the United

4:48

States and the world, says bitcoin will

4:51

not could not should, but

4:53

will compete with gold as

4:56

store of value. This is Goldman

4:58

Sacks. We know that Larry Fink, the

5:00

largest asset manager in the world from black Rock Now, went

5:02

on TV a month ago saying that bitcoin

5:04

is a flight to safety. Right,

5:07

so it's a store of value. We know this.

5:09

We can see Kathy Wood, who runs one of the biggest

5:11

tech funds in Wall Street. She

5:13

says that bitcoin describing bitcoin

5:16

as both. So it's both, it's multiple

5:18

things. It's more things than we'll know in the

5:20

future. Both a store of value and

5:23

a risk off asset, meaning we use

5:25

it to store wealth, but we also use it to when

5:27

there's times of risk or high inflation. Wood

5:30

emphasize that when compared

5:32

to gold, the upward trajectory

5:35

hints at the possibility of overtaking

5:37

gold as a more valuable

5:40

investment in the future. Okay,

5:42

so you can see this from any number of people. It

5:45

is a store of value. It's winning the store

5:47

of value. Bitcoin is like digital

5:49

gold, all right, but it's better than gold. I'm

5:51

not going to break down all the ways in this video. If you want a

5:53

separate video comparing bitcoin to gold, let

5:55

me know. I can make another video on that. But you

5:58

have to understand that it doesn't compete directly

6:00

with gold, because it's better from that standpoint.

6:03

And again the markets tell us

6:05

that that's not just my opinion. If you're a goldbug,

6:07

I am too. I've been at goldbug since two thousand and eight. I

6:09

own gold, I talk about gold all the time. But

6:12

you still have to understand this. Don't be mad. This is what

6:14

the markets tell us. As a matter of fact, we can see here

6:16

the pace of inflows. Now we have these new bitcoin

6:18

ETFs, so the markets are now voting. The

6:20

pace of money going into the ETFs

6:23

is remarkable. In just fifteen

6:25

days, In only fifteen days, the first

6:27

fifteen days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted

6:30

over twenty five billion dollars,

6:33

comparable to the market cap of the largest

6:35

gold producer, Bear Gold. Within

6:37

fifteen days, more money went into these

6:39

bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap

6:41

of the largest gold producer. Think about that

6:44

we can see right here, this unparalleled

6:46

growth to the second largest assets

6:48

under management AUM among US

6:50

commodity ETFs, establishing them as the new

6:53

digital gold. So they surpassed

6:55

silver, and they

6:57

are growing way faster than gold ever did, and they're

6:59

catching up to At the rate they're at, they could

7:01

overtake gold in the next year. All right, So the markets

7:04

are telling us this, it's not just commentators,

7:06

right, But we have to also understand as a

7:08

store of value, it's not competing in

7:10

an industry, right, So uber was competing

7:13

against taxis, Uber was competing

7:15

against limousines. Bitcoin

7:17

as a store of value doesn't compete with industries.

7:20

It's not competing with Visa or PayPal. For people

7:22

to make those comparisons as ridiculous. It's

7:24

a store of value, So it competes

7:27

against other store of value

7:29

assets. That's what's scoring. That's what it's

7:31

actually competing against. And we can see that

7:33

the market that it's going after, the market

7:36

it's competing in is value

7:38

itself. Okay, so

7:41

it's not It is a new technology,

7:43

but it's not Visa, it's not MasterCard,

7:45

it's not Facebook. It's competing

7:48

against other store value assets such

7:50

as gold, for value itself.

7:52

All right, hopefully that makes sense. Now, we

7:55

also have to realize that the world has changed

7:58

a lot, and what's happened is as the

8:00

world has rapidly changed money

8:02

and our technology into store of value

8:05

has not. So we are in the digital revolution.

8:07

I'm sure you know that by now. You're watching me over

8:09

the internet, so of course you're part of the digital

8:11

revolution. What we've seen is that while

8:14

the digital revolution has digitized

8:16

everything, music,

8:20

movies, books, videos,

8:23

everything's become digitized, our money

8:25

hasn't. And actually, this cool image, all these

8:27

images were created by chat GBT.

8:29

Pretty interesting and this shows us how

8:31

all of these technologies have become digitized,

8:33

books, movies, music, et cetera. And

8:36

the last thing to be digitized that

8:38

hasn't yet it's happening right now is

8:40

digitizing value,

8:42

digitizing wealth. That's what we're doing

8:45

right now, and it's a monetary

8:47

evolution. We have to understand that what

8:49

we use as money today, well gold was money for five

8:51

thousand years, has been an evolutionary

8:54

process and this is the next step,

8:56

the digitization of value.

8:59

This is where it's compute. That's how big

9:01

the market is. Okay, now, let

9:03

me just break this down to something that you can understand,

9:05

so we can have something to build off of. Okay, So,

9:08

as I said, gold was money for five thousand

9:10

years, right, So at the end of the day, we

9:13

don't want money. I know it's a shocking statement

9:15

to make. I know you want a lot of money. No, we

9:17

don't want money. What we want is the goods and

9:19

services that money buys us. We want food,

9:22

we want clothes, we want a house, we want to travel, things

9:24

like that. We want the goods and services. Gold

9:27

or money is what we use to get

9:29

those things. And we can hold our value,

9:31

our wealth, our energy in that money

9:34

until we're ready to deploy it to get those goods

9:36

and service that we want. So if goods and

9:38

services are wealth and money is

9:40

a way to acquire it, then what we do is we

9:42

take all the goods and services of the world,

9:44

the wealth divided by all

9:46

the gold. That's the price. It's a unit

9:49

of account. Everything is priced in gold or

9:51

priced in money. So think about this. Gold

9:53

was money. It was the store of value

9:55

for five thousand years. It was the unit

9:58

of account. Everything was priced in Now

10:00

gold because of technology, the

10:02

world started evolving and we had global trade,

10:04

taking off globalization. But gold's very

10:06

slow. If I want to pay from California

10:09

somebody in New York with gold, it takes a long

10:11

time to get that gold there. So what we did

10:13

is we put the gold in the banks, and the banks

10:15

then used a ledger to say, hey, you know from

10:17

California. Now the guy in New York, now on the ledger

10:20

shows he has the gold. The golden actually

10:22

move. They just changed the ledger. That was a new piece of technology,

10:24

all right, but that didn't actually solve

10:27

anything. And so what we did is we

10:29

created paper dollars, Fiat money,

10:31

paper dollars that represented the gold in the bank.

10:33

So we had one US dollar

10:36

was equal to twenty ounces of gold.

10:38

Let me show you the chart. This is the gold

10:40

price chart for the last one hundred years.

10:43

So what we can see since the eighteen hundreds,

10:46

twenty US dollars equaled one ounce

10:48

of gold. Then in nineteen thirty

10:50

three, I've talked about this extensively, because all

10:52

the gold went into the bank, the government just took

10:55

it all. They seized it all. They don't want to

10:57

say they seized it. They bought it from you forcibly.

11:00

What they did is they revalued it to now

11:02

be thirty five dollars

11:04

for one ounce of gold. You can see

11:07

that twenty and then it was thirty five this whole

11:09

time. Now, this red line here

11:11

is where we ended the gold standard

11:13

and we no longer had relation to

11:15

the price of gold. But the reason why I

11:17

want you to understand this for right now

11:20

is because at this time all

11:22

the dollars in existence were divided

11:25

by all the gold, and

11:27

it was twenty dollars for every one ounce,

11:29

and then it was thirty five dollars. So they

11:31

printed way too many of them. That's why they had to seize the gold. Then

11:34

they took it was thirty five dollars for

11:36

every one ounce of gold. You're understanding

11:38

this, But again, in nineteen

11:41

seventy one, we left the gold standard, and

11:43

you can see by this chart right here

11:45

is where we left. Now, what I did is I took

11:47

a trend line, and you can see the trend line we

11:50

were on. And if we hadn't left the gold

11:52

standard here, we would have about

11:54

this much money in circulation today.

11:56

This is the M two chart. This shows how

11:58

much dollars are in circulation. Okay, so

12:01

we would have about this much, but of course they would

12:03

have needed to get more gold. But then nineteen

12:06

seventy one we got a new trend line and

12:08

that took us to hear right around here.

12:10

In the year two thousand, we got a new trend line

12:12

that takes us to here. Two thousand

12:14

and eight, we got a new trend line

12:16

that takes us to here. In twenty

12:19

twenty, we have a new trend line. And look

12:21

at that trend that we're on. Here's

12:23

the problem. They've added

12:25

more of those paper currencies, but they

12:28

didn't add more gold because of course

12:30

we're no longer on a gold system,

12:33

which is why you can see this right

12:35

here. All right, But you have

12:38

to understand this to understand where we're going.

12:40

We had all the dollars in existence divided

12:42

by all the gold, and that's gone. But that's

12:44

the way it works, and we have to go back to it. We are

12:47

in a fifty two or in about a fifty

12:49

two year experiment that's gone

12:51

horribly wrong. I'll show you how it's gone horribly

12:53

wrong in a minute. Okay, So now that you understand

12:56

that, you hear a lot of people talking

12:58

about maybe going back to the gold stand the rise

13:00

of bricks. Bricks are going to launch their own gold

13:02

back currency. You've heard me talk about that extensively.

13:05

You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking about

13:07

we're going to go back to gold. And the reason why

13:09

is because gold was money for five thousand years.

13:11

For fifty years, we've tried this little fiat experiment.

13:14

It's failed horribly wrong, and so the

13:16

only way that governments will get trust back into

13:18

fiat currency is to back it with something like

13:20

gold. Again, you've heard that many times. So this

13:23

is how this would work. Let me break it down.

13:25

In the United States, there's about twenty

13:28

trillion dollars of currency of

13:30

paper of fiat currency twenty tint the

13:32

US supposedly, I don't know if I believe this

13:34

holds eight thousand tons of gold.

13:37

So then what you would do is you would take the eight

13:39

thousand tons is two hundred and eighty two million

13:42

ounces, So you take the twenty trillion

13:44

divided by the two hundred and eighty two

13:46

million ounces, and that would give you a new

13:48

gold price of seventy thousand

13:50

dollars per ounce of gold. At the twenty

13:53

dollars per ounce of gold up until ninety thirty three,

13:55

the thirty five up to nine seventy one. That's how it

13:57

worked. And to go back to a gold standard one hundred percent

13:59

back this would be the new math. That's why goldbugs

14:02

want this to go back to a gold standard, and they want

14:04

to hold gold because they think they're two thousand dollars

14:06

an ounce gold will go to seventy thousand ounce. It'd

14:08

be pretty amazing if that happened, although Big one's

14:10

going to do better. I'll break the math down now. We

14:13

also have to think globally, all right, because this is

14:15

not just the US the US dollars, the global

14:17

observe currency bus of the euro dollar going

14:19

on, so we have to think globally. So if we think

14:21

globally, there's about eighty seven trillion

14:23

dollars globally and about we don't

14:25

really know because China doesn't really report it properly, but

14:28

approximately one hundred and eighty seven thousand

14:30

tons of gold in the whole world, all

14:33

the gold in the world that's ever been brought above

14:35

ground is still above ground. It's

14:37

not really a consumable good. I think all

14:39

the gold in the world fits in like a football field. It's

14:41

not even that much. One hundred eighty seven

14:43

thousand tons, which is six billion ounces.

14:46

So we take the eighty seven trillion

14:48

dollars of currency divided by

14:50

the six billion ounces would give us about

14:52

a thirteen thousand dollars price per

14:54

goal. Does that make sense? Okay? So now

14:56

that we've gone through that math, you're ready

14:59

to understand the next step in the process.

15:01

Okay, So you remember we've made a couple

15:03

of cases here. Gold was what we used

15:06

to measure or price things in. Wealth

15:09

is goods and services, not gold. Wealth

15:11

is the goods and services. The gold is what

15:13

it was priced in, and so we had to divide

15:15

the goods and services by the wealth by the

15:17

gold. So now what

15:19

other global assets are there? How do we measure

15:21

how much goods and services are out there? How

15:24

much wealth is out there? Well, there's a couple

15:26

of ways we can look at this. All of these

15:28

global assets are well,

15:30

we're looking at the global assets right now for this math

15:33

in store of value assets. There's lots

15:35

of assets, but we don't store our wealth

15:37

in all types of assets. So, just for this exercise,

15:40

being conservative, I know this sounds crazy,

15:42

we're only looking at what we call store of value assets,

15:45

things that you would put your money into such as

15:47

gold is a store of value asset real

15:49

estate. Sure, I have a house there, but I park my

15:51

wealth in real estate as well, bonds,

15:54

stocks, things like that. Okay, so

15:56

if we look at that. Here's a chart from

15:58

Jesse Croasis. He

16:01

did an amazing write up on this. We're going

16:03

to link to it in the description down below if you want

16:05

to read his rite up and break down of this. But

16:07

we have store of value assets right here,

16:09

gold, cars, other collectibles.

16:12

So rich people buy really old

16:14

collectible cars, things like that, they store their

16:16

wealth in there. One of my buddies down the streets

16:18

got a couple Mustangs that are worth millions of dollars.

16:20

Pretty cool, doesn't drive them fine? Art

16:22

of course, stock market, right, we buy

16:24

stock to put our wealth in their real estate, Like

16:26

I said, not just your home, but other real estate that you invest

16:28

in, bonds, and of course money. If

16:30

we add those up, we have twelve trillion dollars

16:33

in gold, six trillion in collectibles,

16:35

eighteen trillion in fine art, one hundred and fifteen

16:38

trillion, and you do the math. It totals

16:40

nine hundred trillion dollars.

16:42

If we add all that up. Now again

16:44

back to the uber example, uber is going

16:47

to disrupt taxis, limos vans. What

16:49

percentage do we think it can get from each

16:51

of those markets? So conservatively, do

16:53

we think bitcoin could capture fifty

16:56

percent of the gold market

16:58

cap? I think so, Golden Sacks, this is going

17:00

to overtake it. So fifty percent.

17:02

That puts bitcoin at six trillion, cars,

17:05

other collectibles. It's not going to take the whole

17:07

thing. People like cars, people like collectibles, people

17:09

like fine art. But could it take five percent? I

17:12

think that's reasonable, fine art five

17:14

percent, sure stock market fifteen

17:16

percent, I think reasonable, real estate fifteen

17:18

percent. Okay, bonds thirty percent,

17:21

money thirty percent. That brings

17:23

us to two hundred trillion dollars

17:26

just at those levels, and this could happen

17:29

over the next five, six, seven

17:31

years. All right, I'll get more to the timeframe.

17:33

We'll break this map down a little bit more. But

17:36

that would put it one bitcoin

17:38

to ten million dollars. It's a big number,

17:40

ten million dollars just forgetting these

17:42

pieces. Now. We're not even adding all the other use

17:45

cases, the money exchanging, we're not including

17:47

all the technologies being built on bitcoin. We're just

17:49

talking about store of value assets

17:51

only, all right, so you can see that

17:54

math. Now let's keep going here. Now,

17:56

remember there's no such thing as certainties,

17:59

there's only probabilities. So is

18:02

this a probable outcome? But

18:04

what we do know is pretty much certain,

18:07

ninety nine percent certain that FIAT

18:09

is dead, FIAT is crashing. FIAT

18:11

was an experiment. We're fifty two years

18:13

into this experiment, five thousand years

18:15

of using sound money, fifty two

18:17

years of FIAT, and it's dead. It's over.

18:20

There's pretty much no way I can continue from

18:22

here. Like I said, they're going to have to figure out

18:24

a way to bring some trust

18:27

back into the system. So what options

18:29

do we have. Well, I did a video a

18:31

couple months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk

18:33

at a conference in Amsdam a couple months ago. Let's

18:35

go ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it. We

18:38

can see this system is shifting.

18:40

If you're paying attention, they're buying

18:42

gold. The problem is that already

18:44

failed before. We live in

18:47

a information world today. We

18:49

need money to transfer at the speed

18:52

of our transactions over the internet, and gold

18:54

can't do that. Gold requires

18:57

trust. Since gold can't transfer immediately,

19:00

are someone to hold a ledger and if someone's

19:02

holding the ledger, we must trust that person.

19:04

But trust is lost. So if that doesn't work,

19:07

if we don't go back to commodities, where do we go.

19:10

Well, the next solution is central bank

19:12

digital currencies, because that should

19:14

fix everything. Right, The CBDCs

19:17

seem to be the next logical step.

19:19

But the problem is I would call this not de evolution,

19:22

I'd call it zero evolution because it's

19:24

basically the exact same thing that

19:26

we have right now. It

19:29

still allows US central banks to print unlimited

19:31

amounts of money. So if we

19:33

have a problem of inless money printing,

19:35

then we need to fix it. We need a solution

19:37

that has a fixed supply, doesn't allow

19:40

anybody to have in this money printing. And

19:42

in a multipolar world, whether we're

19:44

no longer in the current monetary order

19:46

or the current international order that

19:48

we have today, a US

19:50

led order with a US dollar reserve

19:53

currency in a paper

19:55

fiat monetary system, moving

19:58

to a multipolar world, how

20:02

does the world move forward when there

20:04

is no trust? In a world where

20:07

trust is gone, it's almost like we

20:09

need a decentralized

20:11

ledger that's trust lists. And

20:14

so in this new world order that we're

20:16

going into, the question is left,

20:18

if not bitcoined, then what all

20:21

right, so you can hear from there like

20:23

the options are one we go back

20:25

to gold, but gold already failed because

20:27

it's old technology. We live in

20:29

a world of instant transactions and

20:32

we need instant settlement, but gold can never

20:34

do that without adding debt and adding trust in the system,

20:36

which there is no trust in the system anymore. So gold

20:38

doesn't work. The other option is well,

20:41

a CBDC, but that's basically still FIAT

20:43

and the problem is the unlimited money printing in the debt,

20:45

so that doesn't fix it either. So, as I put

20:48

in the question at the end of debt presentation,

20:51

if not bitcoined, then what So it's

20:53

not guaranteed, but is it at least probable?

20:56

Do you think there's a twenty percent chance that

20:58

people move to it? I mean, we're certainly

21:00

seeing that happen now. Is there a thirty,

21:02

forty fifty percent chance. We'll come back to that

21:04

in a second. Let's look at some of the

21:06

time frames that is happening on now. Remember I said

21:09

this is an evolutionary process. One of the biggest

21:11

problems that people have with understanding this

21:13

is they expect way too much too soon. Imagine

21:15

you and I walking through a forest of

21:17

redwoods and we find this little tree

21:19

like this big, and I'm like, oh my gosh, look at this little tree. Look

21:22

how cool it is. Can you imagine that this

21:24

tree one day is going to be as

21:26

big as these other trees? And You're like, Oh, that's stupid,

21:28

Mark, that tree will never be that big. Look

21:30

how small it is. How could it ever grow that big?

21:33

And I'm like, but give

21:35

it time, give it a couple decades.

21:37

It's like it'll get there. Right. So you have to understand

21:39

things take time, and there's an evolutionary

21:42

path that things have to go down. Another image

21:44

by chat GBT showing this evolutionary

21:46

path. So what am I talking about? Let's take a look

21:48

at this evolutionary path. So remember,

21:51

as I said money, If you study thousands of

21:53

years of history of money, rocks, feathers, seashells,

21:56

gold, you understand it. It was always emergent

21:58

and it was always an evolution. Happens is it

22:00

starts right here as a collectible.

22:03

Oh this is a pretty cool rock. I think I'm going to keep

22:05

it. It's a collectible. Oh look at this baseball card, This

22:07

Pokemon card. I like this, I'll collect it. Now,

22:10

there's a lot of things that become collectibles.

22:12

But if maybe, sometimes

22:14

they could evolve to the next stage,

22:17

which could become a store of

22:20

value. So baseball

22:22

cards are stores of value. Some people store millions

22:24

of dollars in baseball cards, Pokemon

22:26

cards, watches. Not all

22:28

collectibles make the evolution to

22:31

store value, but a lot do. Now

22:33

if maybe, if

22:35

they have the right attributes of money,

22:37

portable, divisible, durable, recognizable,

22:39

things like that, then maybe it

22:41

could evolve to the next stage from

22:44

a store value to a medium

22:46

of exchange. Okay, so now it's big enough,

22:48

it's a big enough asset class, it's widely accepted,

22:50

it has that right attributes, like I said, and now people

22:52

use it as a medium exchange. And then maybe,

22:55

if potentially, if it could,

22:57

we could evolve to the next stage, which is a

23:00

unit of account, which means everything's

23:02

priced in that thing. Now. Right

23:04

now, everything's priced in dollars. Oil's priced

23:06

in dollars, gold priced in dollars. Most

23:08

of the world prices things in dollars because it is the

23:11

currency of the world. Now some countries have

23:13

other currencies, but you get my point. You're still

23:15

pricing it in that currency. So this

23:17

is the evolutionary path. I think

23:19

we are somewhere right around here. We've

23:22

already checked all these boxes and

23:24

we have a little bit ways to go. Now, what

23:26

time frame are we looking at? All? Right?

23:28

I showed you the path. What is the time frame?

23:30

Now? That evolutionary path doesn't mean it's guaranteed.

23:33

Remember life is about probabilities, but

23:35

we can continue to watch that now over what

23:37

time frame? Now, when you look back through technological

23:40

revolutions, you realize they happen about

23:42

every fifty years. You've heard me talk extensively

23:44

about technology cycles. So this

23:46

is a path. This is where bitcoin

23:49

started right here, and

23:51

we are sitting somewhere right about here

23:53

right now, we're in this path. You're

23:56

not too late. We still have all this

23:58

to go right here before we start

24:00

to level out. And I think we really see

24:02

all this happen by about twenty fifty. So

24:05

I don't know where you're at in your stage of life right now.

24:07

You could be alive to see this happen. Now, none

24:09

of this is guaranteed, but

24:11

this is the most probable outcome going

24:13

back to old technology of gold or

24:16

what that's the question, and

24:19

you can see we're rapidly heading for this. Now

24:21

we're literally living through this. We're

24:23

literally watching this revolution.

24:25

We're watching this financial revolution cycle

24:27

end right in front of us. Okay,

24:29

great, So now you understand

24:32

what it's attacking value itself.

24:34

You understand that's the evolutionary

24:36

path and what that process looks like. You understand the time

24:38

frame. Now let's talk about the prices.

24:41

Now. I talked about forty three billion,

24:43

you know, in fifty sixty years from now, but where

24:46

is it in a year from now, or four

24:48

or five years from now, seven or eight years from now.

24:50

Let's talk about that for now, all right, So, how

24:52

Finny was one of the main developers

24:54

that developed bitcoin. He worked with Satoshi Nakamoto,

24:57

which, yes, nobody knows who he is, but we know lots

24:59

of the other helopers that worked on it with Satoshi,

25:02

including howf any Adam back, Nigsabo,

25:04

et cetera. So how Finnie was a developer. Now,

25:07

back in two thousand and nine when it

25:09

was released, we just got a whole bunch of Satoshi's

25:12

emails released to the public. We can see this

25:14

was January tenth, two thousand and nine,

25:16

and he said here announcing the first release

25:19

of bitcoin. Pretty cool, but we can see

25:21

through those emails. I sort of summarized it

25:23

here so you can see it easier. How Finny

25:25

predicted twenty two

25:28

million dollar bitcoin. This was back

25:30

in two thousand and nine when it was first released. He

25:32

said, not based on mere speculation, but

25:34

rather on a thoughtful analysis of

25:36

bitcoin's potential as a global

25:38

payment system. So he back into the

25:40

math sort of the same way I am. The collective

25:43

value of bitcoin would align with the total

25:45

wealth of the world. Wealth of the world divided

25:47

by the asset unit of account, which

25:49

he estimated to be within the range of one hundred trillion

25:52

to three hundred trillion dollars. That was in two

25:54

thousand and nine. Today it's about nine

25:56

hundred trillion dollars. By dividing this value

25:58

among the limited supply of twenty one mister bitcoin,

26:00

Finney came up with a twenty two million

26:04

dollar price per bitcoin. That was in two thousand

26:06

and nine, when it was first invented. You could have picked it up for a couple

26:08

of pennies. But he saw that vision

26:10

that we're rapidly heading towards. What

26:12

about let's hear from Chamoth Chamoth

26:15

is a prolific investor in Silicon

26:18

Valley early early, early into Facebook

26:21

billionaire. Let's hear what he had to say Bitcoin

26:24

that falls into that category, because that's what that

26:26

is. Thirty nine thousand. Where's

26:29

it going?

26:30

I mean, can you play the clip in twenty

26:33

twelve and thirteen when it was at two hundred

26:35

and everybody was laughing at me on CFPC every

26:37

time I would talk about bitcoin, where's

26:40

it going? It's probably going to one hundred and one

26:42

hundred and fifty, then two hundred thousand in

26:44

what period I don't know, five years,

26:46

ten years, but it's going there. And

26:49

the reason is because every time you see

26:52

all of this stuff happening, it

26:54

just reminds you that, wow, our leaders

26:56

are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used

26:59

to be. And so just in case,

27:02

we really do need to have some kind of, you

27:04

know, insurance we can keep under our pillow that

27:07

gives us some access to an uncorrelated

27:09

hedge.

27:10

All right now, mind you, this video is from twenty

27:13

twenty one, so he's talking about it going to

27:15

one hundred, one hundred and fifty all

27:17

the way up to a million dollars, which

27:19

is certainly doing. He says a million dollars

27:21

by twenty forty. That's the timeframe

27:24

he's on. What else we have we

27:26

have Fidelity. Fidelity is I

27:28

think the second largest asset manager in the US.

27:30

They do a lot of research on bitcoin. It's

27:33

the second largest bitcoin etf They

27:35

predict a billion dollars for

27:37

one bitcoin by twenty thirty eight,

27:39

twenty thirty eight. The director of Global Macro

27:42

Fidelity Investments thinks a single

27:44

bitcoin could reach one billion by the

27:46

year twenty thirty eight. A lot

27:48

of what he's done is rooted and he's come up with

27:50

this from a bunch of angles. Specifically,

27:52

he says it's rooted in Metcalf's law, which

27:54

is that a network continues to grow faster and

27:56

faster and faster becomes more valuable. And

27:59

he says it will grow to about one million per

28:01

bitcoin by twenty thirty so one

28:03

million by twenty thirty, one billion

28:05

by twenty thirty eight. Based

28:08

off of that. Now fidealite, Like I said, they put

28:10

out a ton of good research and data on this,

28:12

one of which is this Metscalf's law, and

28:14

you can see how this price arc

28:17

is working. It doesn't go up hyperbolically

28:19

forever. Right, it doesn't go up straight

28:22

line. It starts to taper off, but

28:24

yet it still goes up. We have a million

28:26

dollar bitcoin, you know, right about

28:28

here, and you can see that. I'll

28:31

have this other chart right here that I think is really good fidelity

28:33

put together. You can get all this information

28:35

directly off of their website. But this

28:37

shows the different analogs. So this is the price

28:40

the bitcoin price arc right here, and

28:42

I know for the bitcoin skeptics, I know it

28:45

crashes, right, So it goes super high, and

28:47

then it crashes all the way back down, and

28:49

then it stays below the trend line. And then it goes

28:51

super high, and then it crashes all the way down

28:53

again, and it stays below the trend and it crashes.

28:55

It goes super high, and it crashes all the way down.

28:57

Now some people go, well, why do wouldn't I just sell

29:00

here and buy right here. Sure you can certainly

29:02

try that, or you could just wait and sit

29:04

and go along for the ride. Now, what about

29:07

me, where do I think it's

29:09

going to go? Well, I think a million dollars

29:11

by twenty thirty seems pretty realistic to

29:13

me. We'll see again in the world

29:15

of possibilities and probabilities. I think it's highly

29:17

probable we'll get there. It's certainly not guaranteed,

29:19

which is why I don't put one hundred percent of my

29:21

money in. We'll come back to that in a minute. But I

29:24

think in the next eighteen months one hundred

29:26

to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars bitcoin is kind

29:29

of what I'm thinking. That's a two to three

29:31

x return from here. I don't know if any other asset

29:33

I can put my money into right now today that

29:36

can get me that type of return. So that's kind

29:38

of what I'm thinking. All right. So now that you have

29:40

this information, what are you going to do with

29:42

it? What do you do? Well? In

29:44

the in the famous words of Satoshi Nakamoto,

29:47

he said that it might make sense to

29:49

get some just in case it

29:51

catches on. So back

29:54

to the world of probabilities, all

29:56

right, Just like that show I told you I was watching,

29:58

everything's a probability. So do

30:00

you think that there is a fifty

30:03

percent chance that bitcoin gets to one

30:05

hundred and fifty thousand dollars in the next two years? Okay,

30:08

and it's at fifty thousand today, that's a

30:11

two x upside with a one x downside,

30:13

it's pretty good odds you have fifty percent conviction

30:15

of that. How much money should put in? Maybe

30:18

put in fifty percent, hold the other fifty percent

30:20

you can average in so you can you

30:22

can buy it. You should

30:24

secure it and hold it, and you can

30:26

either lump some in, you can put that money

30:28

in, or you can dollar cost average

30:31

in over time. So buy

30:33

it. That's the first thing. Do you have

30:35

some do you have enough? How

30:37

much should you have it? Bait depends off your

30:39

conviction. Now what we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs,

30:42

we're putting two to five percent allocations

30:44

in. You put two to five percent allocation in.

30:46

Even if it drops by fifty percent, it's barely

30:49

even going to be noticed. However, if it goes

30:51

to where we think it can, then your portfolio

30:53

is going to be looking pretty dang good. Now, if you're

30:55

crazy and you have a lot of conviction, like

30:58

I do, you might want thirty, forty five, fifty

31:00

sixty percent allocation to bitcoin. Now,

31:02

it also depends on how much money you have, so those other factors

31:05

you need to figure that out for yourself. Buy

31:07

it, then you need to secure it and hold it.

31:09

The revolutionary feature of bitcoin is that I can

31:11

custody it and secure it and store it

31:13

myself, and so you should certainly do that. I

31:16

recommend using a hardware wallet to do

31:18

that. Plenty of help online. Check

31:20

that Out'll go to BTC sessions on YouTube.

31:22

He can show you how to do that. And then again, like I

31:24

said, should I buy it now just throw

31:27

my cash in as a lumpsum or should I average

31:29

in over time? It depends on where your conviction

31:31

is. But this video has gone long. That's about as much

31:33

as I can put into it right now. But I'll make

31:36

more videos. Let me know which of these you want me to dig into

31:38

more. Let me know what you think. Leave me a calmed down

31:40

below. Subscribe if you're not subscribed, and that's

31:42

what I got to your success, I'm out