0:10

oh my first

0:14

caleb didn't hit it it's

0:16

a friday july 1st 2022,

0:19

episode 185 on patrick's reznor,

0:21

and i'm kevin this

0:23

week patrick's resident gets replaced is kim

0:25

fever technicians carter work towards us

0:27

his health about his mythology for

0:29

analyzing markets how he is worried about

0:32

the coming follow period and why ghoul the

0:34

something that all investors should consider then

0:36

harris's back for copies corner you

0:38

don't wanna miss and if that wasn't enough them

0:40

patrick pulls the crayons he is doing out of his

0:42

mouth long enough to give us a terrific

0:44

talking charts segments you

0:46

do realize yeah and methodical and instead

0:49

of a methodology minerals perfect

0:51

keep it in a thing as great as a lead on a date

0:53

on which

0:55

are going to end with or segments of know stupid questions

0:58

and skyn in the game and us well

1:00

folks who might even tricks some beers along the way so

1:02

stick around got around great show lena

1:04

hop on now what be are we drinking

1:06

on ten

1:07

or canada day that's right x my kevin

1:09

that's right happy canada day of for everyone

1:12

all the canadians that are tuning in i hope you're

1:14

enjoying it by the doc

1:16

yeah oh and by the way like we should

1:18

have had law system as i

1:20

was short on time

1:22

the about some call we have managed to and

1:24

beer a brewery which been to ireland

1:26

is a is an island way up there

1:28

on lake huron which is terrific so

1:30

i think this is represented and hollowed out

1:32

a man strawberry be

1:34

and i was trying to look for this description

1:36

of the beer i cannot find any

1:39

description of the beer anyway

1:40

okay well , have a confession

1:43

to make what while we're well we're trying to be other

1:45

ice to make a confession or i saw skill

1:47

kev when you gave me these beers oh

1:50

a when i got back to the

1:52

condo i was in the parking garage downstairs

1:55

and the paper bag or ripped and

1:58

the cans when spilling cans when one

1:59

like exploded and

2:02

basically started spraying everywhere so

2:04

i like shock on this right there so

2:09

i totally do know what i a foaming

2:11

version of this beer tastes like so i'll be happy

2:13

to rate it now but i'm i'm

2:16

actually just can have a corona right now

2:18

oh day and then apparently strawberry

2:20

and

2:22

the way use you know what if you told

2:24

me strawberry beer after the disasters

2:26

was very beer the we had even though was

2:29

firmly the woods my your home the

2:31

area this isn't this

2:33

isn't anywhere near as bad as i signed agreement

2:35

is this is my ideal and bit sore like having a

2:37

roseanne the summer it's it's

2:40

like hey if it wasn't a very

2:42

well rosie the you shotgun already

2:44

let me do to solicit of back nothing back

2:46

nothing podcast should be viewed as of s been baseless

2:49

or should consult an investment professional before

2:51

making any decisions regarding topics mention

2:53

the show side effects of too much huddle may

2:55

include the german

2:58

james german boons slow time

3:00

to by doctor ,

3:02

and the multiverse of sadness and

3:04

stop gun then what then mavericks what

3:06

the thing said before that guy sent

3:08

us those i like those odds are summarized

3:11

let's get your first guess

3:12

these

3:15

are great pleasure you're welcome to the show today

3:17

carter worth from worth starting

3:19

car accident thanks for joining us

3:21

the pleasure think you brought

3:23

it's it's it's a great for those you

3:25

don't know you you've offered seen carter on c n

3:27

b c he's a staple

3:29

of the technical analysis the dark art

3:31

as i like to call it but before

3:33

we get into the years you know what you're

3:35

thinking about the markets right now as wondering if we could

3:37

go through how you got into the business

3:40

and how you got into the technical analysis

3:42

sides let's just start off with you

3:44

know did you would you are going to university did

3:46

you think you wanted to be on wall street

3:48

well i did grow up in manhattan

3:50

and it is the cottage industry

3:53

new york city right was

3:55

ripping

3:56

the biggest employer second biggest employer

3:59

almost

3:59

interfere with the exception of healthcare

4:02

think hospitals course i'm but

4:04

at maybe i can they're just answered the most direct

4:06

way possible the truth is

4:09

i went to wall street because

4:11

i have no natural god given talents

4:14

and , this is obvious and elements i think

4:16

everyone in the most kids moment would

4:19

know that in the sense that if i

4:21

could swing the golf club like tiger

4:23

woods i would have done that if

4:25

i could see like mick jagger i would have done

4:28

that

4:28

i don't act like tom hanks i would

4:30

have done that

4:31

the a but i don't have any

4:34

of those

4:35

god given talents and so he

4:37

doesn't take much soothing

4:39

or figuring to notice

4:41

that there are the margins

4:43

and wallstreet are exceedingly

4:45

higher right great the fortunes are mates

4:48

and the pay is basically outside and

4:50

you can be for instance the start

4:53

at your high school the valedictorian college

4:55

your mba from harvard you can

4:57

end up at a massive company like

4:59

johnson johnson maybe head of all of

5:02

north america consumer products from

5:04

band days or q-tip

5:06

whatever my be and

5:07

you get paid handsomely on

5:10

average than most should make ten times so

5:12

yeah i just a in just to be very

5:14

frank it's it's a bizarre saying it's i mean

5:17

we see this and all but i want to teachers get paid

5:19

a so er de minimis li

5:21

it when they're doing such an important role out

5:24

or again a nurse but the point is

5:26

just a shared a human interest

5:28

agreed what every white cause i

5:30

went to wall street because i it

5:33

wasn't missed on me there

5:35

was money to be made rate

5:38

or it's okay it's okay you go did you when you when

5:40

did you have your first job how did you start

5:43

with how did you get that first on we are

5:45

rough i came out of or cause

5:47

was inversely may inversely was sort of wanted

5:49

to be in advertising and

5:51

i invite hello small publishing company that

5:53

was gonna move

5:55

in that direction it was about was much

5:58

to concerned but it was more marketing

6:00

our like publishing and getting sponsors

6:03

an ad placement then you

6:05

know sometimes they say the best investments

6:08

the ones you never make it was clear

6:10

after about nine months did you could put more

6:12

money into this maybe not maybe not give it

6:14

up i should basically not

6:16

proceed and i

6:18

ended up by i went out to just to clear

6:21

my head i was driving a tractor on on

6:23

a farm out in long island ah

6:26

for about six months and and

6:28

then us that our i got it get gets

6:30

here in the sea or so i've i answered a help

6:33

wanted in the new york times

6:36

it was for security analysis

6:38

and , was at a come to hold value

6:40

line which everyone knows they are the originators

6:43

of the one page research report which

6:45

ores also didn't in the thirties

6:48

morningstar does now and so i went

6:50

in a for this interview was probably

6:52

fifty sixty people

6:54

and

6:55

they gave us or to it we had

6:57

also we sat down we gave a sort of an exam

6:59

resorts the first was was thirty math

7:01

questions in thirty

7:03

minutes or twenty minutes yet for it

7:06

and was like in a little stuff and you and

7:08

then i took the paper way and

7:10

then you had to write an essay in the us economy

7:12

the then

7:15

there were those are there was a server there was one longer mad

7:18

it was like as a plate of steel that's

7:20

four feet by four feet six inches

7:23

you know in deaths if you close circle

7:26

out of a what's the vine and vine could never do

7:28

that now but i but i i could do that it's

7:30

are hints and so is quick math

7:32

questions one longer mattress and then you

7:34

read this and i can remember

7:37

i started this was nineteen eighty

7:39

nine

7:40

and

7:41

anyway i got a call

7:43

and when i return there

7:45

weren't sixty people rooms just me not

7:48

to said well we like the way you write and you

7:50

did fine on the mask and so

7:52

i started at value line as

7:54

a securities analyst

7:57

it used to be clear this is a fundamental

7:59

the securities analyst you're sure exactly

8:02

and

8:03

because no one really starts as a technician

8:05

for there's nothing in that era where it's there were

8:07

no training programs you don't don't

8:10

hires you as you as to start looking

8:12

at charts per se although it's artistic and

8:14

going on for hundreds of years and

8:16

so what they do when you're,

8:19

when you're young, is

8:21

it don't give you the big like so princess,

8:23

the most oddball things

8:25

they hand off to these young

8:27

people or 2022 whatever my

8:29

pants are the very area i assigned

8:31

specialty finance

8:33

i think about that that's not covering

8:35

a big bank like jp morgan, right?

8:37

or or city bank, or manufactured

8:40

hanover at the time of its not

8:42

coming american express, it's

8:44

not covering an insurance company

8:46

it's things that work there no category for

8:49

h&r, block or

8:51

household, predatory

8:55

lenders beneficial traits

8:57

is 30 of 40% as

8:59

i i covered finance

9:01

and then at

9:03

one point they shifted me to specialty

9:05

steel which means i can give the u

9:08

s steel to the junior analyst or inland

9:10

steel or bathroom still she had this little thing

9:12

called carpenter and stainless

9:14

steel was just coming on carpenter technologies

9:17

allegheny technologies and ultimately

9:19

oil and gas canadian oil and gas

9:21

course not oh but some

9:23

i was there for a year like

9:26

a call or that to physically

9:28

change my life and subtle than i went on to

9:30

that

9:31

opportunity so what was the call the change

9:33

your life so

9:35

the young

9:36

i was at my desk and the someone

9:38

in eric t miller was

9:41

the chief investment officer

9:43

at donaldson lufkin in general basically

9:46

okay i'm the preeminent white

9:48

shoe from on the street

9:50

the

9:51

you know up there was one or two others but

9:53

a boutique and she finally

9:55

he was he that the to the chief

9:57

investment officer he was the chairman a vessel pass

10:00

give me the cermis fox was germany and

10:02

he he hired me

10:05

he also said i like the way right and

10:07

i started working for him and it was there

10:10

within the portfolio strategy group

10:14

that i met my teacher

10:16

and mentor his name was

10:18

vincent boring and he

10:20

had a started the fidelity charm rooms

10:22

and nineteen the sixties

10:25

whoa you fidelity had a chat room

10:28

back then like this old every the mutual the

10:30

bible and your original original source the terms

10:32

famous it's the size of a

10:35

not quite an airplane hangar but it's

10:37

it's big and the

10:39

johnson a family original

10:42

was was guy user of charts

10:45

and many people it

10:47

is it's a sizable for knowledge or room

10:49

is epic one what i

10:51

had no idea in it so they were doing

10:54

sort of the worthy almost at the forefront

10:56

of technical analysis with anyone

10:58

else doing it back to l e army's always been

11:00

right it's is a good got candlestick charts

11:02

going back over one hundred years but

11:05

, just about the mental which was it is

11:08

so unique to me but very important if

11:10

you think about the first person

11:13

to construct an index

11:15

what what's rent it was charlestown

11:17

and a down theory

11:19

which was developed by some of the

11:21

other editors at the wall street journal

11:24

the founding of occasions he was a party

11:26

started with his customer afternoon letter

11:29

and she was from springfield massachusetts

11:31

had been had journalist the the

11:33

seminal work on the subject of

11:35

tactical analysis sobbing

11:38

on his edwards and muggy just as in fundamental

11:40

land people don't refer the titled books

11:42

they said graham and dot right okay

11:45

graham and dot as an incentive was

11:47

the terrorists seminal work know it will ever it's

11:49

is known as it's i think it's technical

11:51

analysis of stock trends it was first

11:54

edition ninety forty eight at the point i'm making is is

11:56

referred to as edwards and magician here's the thing

11:59

now was from springfield mass

12:02

and edwards in mcgee operating

12:05

out of springfield mass and have us linked

12:07

to trials down my teacher and mentor new

12:11

edwards and again and was from springfield mass

12:14

so literally a line that connects from

12:16

charles now who his

12:18

apprentice wow in

12:20

so this guy took you wonder what under

12:22

his wing and you started to

12:25

shift from been focused

12:27

on the fundamentals to the technical know

12:29

, tell you why is your it wasn't shift i was

12:31

about to quit quit i

12:34

mean i i got out of island because i didn't

12:36

like that and then he just made us that by

12:38

that point is is very important and that's why i refer to them

12:40

as the fundamentals the error

12:42

rate predicting quarterly results is

12:44

nothing short of preposterous everybody knows

12:46

this right so james they scan before i was

12:48

scan before in and to you but what does that work

12:51

means is supposed to be that and forget

12:53

about something that's opaque and hard but let's

12:55

take your operating business like a sore

12:57

gap source you'd be stores they have

13:00

you can can study stooped consumer trans

13:02

disposal income you could study

13:04

inflation costs of goods sold us

13:06

all other things and yet it was committee and

13:08

myself i'd have is horrible

13:11

mr would never be right and it's gotten

13:13

worse on wall street did it was

13:15

then because there's no whisper number prior but

13:18

there's also this when rebuilding

13:20

our the spreadsheets the would talk to the

13:22

i er department logos

13:24

on and you would say well i'm

13:26

thinking is gonna be a dollar twenty

13:29

the quarter of dot my modeling you have his long

13:31

models that would you start with revenue

13:33

and then you'd have operating margins and and

13:35

you'd work down through and you get your vps figure

13:37

and then they might say well i think curious what might

13:40

be a little the whole about your there and tell

13:42

you what they're going on right road and about

13:44

twenty and there would just for livers you to pull

13:46

every time it's also the he made him though he woke

13:48

up so the first thing is is revenue

13:51

rose the to the top line i've got a

13:53

model that seven percent said put

13:56

it up to seven point five a

13:58

wall the towns of us the molson may

14:00

ps went from one twenty

14:02

the one

14:04

twenty two i got two sons right there and

14:06

then the so gross margin who

14:09

knows what's the best friend who are with a cup

14:11

no one company has no it comes in little and so

14:13

and my gross margin and edmunds an awesome i

14:15

was up to a dollar twenty five and

14:17

then the the third thing of course

14:20

is here's i'm standing they're

14:22

always issuing chairs

14:25

and buying bashers and you never quite sure what the cat

14:27

will be from company stock and

14:29

so i changed not changed little bit and

14:31

ah then i would be up to a dollar twenty

14:34

seven

14:35

the new industry

14:36

every course tax free cell

14:39

research and i got a

14:41

buck sorry this was this was outweighed authors

14:43

so stanza him is everyone should

14:45

know that never does it was the math is no

14:47

good we'll

14:49

math is the it's here i'm sitting in a billion

14:51

one assist in floor never once

14:53

occurred to me this building or class cause the

14:56

math was going the engineers math

14:58

of the engineer good math

15:00

wall street math is terrible that's

15:03

why i got out of it and soak this teacher

15:05

and mentor i was about the quite

15:07

i was getting it looking at the elysee t books

15:09

and i'm just going to be a of banker

15:11

lawyer doctor okay gotta get out of the banker

15:13

think so let's get into

15:15

the lawyer or doctor thing and

15:18

i met a vince

15:20

burning he's a german or for his grandparents

15:23

morning germany and

15:25

she said let me show you thing or two and

15:27

i was struck on the spot when

15:30

i

15:31

okay so what did he show you

15:34

well he show me that all that stuff is

15:36

i knew already but to me how silly

15:38

it all was and what he basically imported

15:41

to me the importance

15:43

of ice volume correlation what

15:45

i would really say is that it gets down

15:47

to this way they're accepts or

15:49

doesn't accept the concept that

15:52

there's a wisdom in price

15:54

the government knows it the government include

15:56

stock prices in their leading indicator

15:58

index

15:59

you know

15:59

right in fact if it is very worried about the market

16:02

autumnal target the markets some people think they manipulated

16:04

to the plunge protection because it's

16:06

the greatest leading indicator of all and

16:09

so what he basically and

16:11

i spent a you know years learning

16:13

at his name this trying to

16:16

recognize the patterns that

16:18

repeat in the market and i would go so far

16:20

as to say that any decision

16:22

that anyone has ever made it

16:24

was really true and good actor

16:26

based on how to recognition

16:28

and so let's just use of you very pedestrian

16:31

examples to make that point so

16:33

right now i'm sitting at my office new

16:35

york city and if there

16:37

were whispers electric guitars

16:40

and speakers and other musical equipment

16:42

being charged on my credit card my mirror

16:44

can express right now in boston

16:48

the what happened

16:49

it wouldn't have a computer would block

16:51

the chalks now i have a

16:53

sibling that a big musician right place older

16:56

and even then he likely you're busy lives in chicago

16:58

would he may be biased swimming around

17:00

in boston in michael through but i

17:03

not only have nothing to do with music other than

17:05

i appreciate listen to all time i shall we

17:07

don't play it and have a suit the computer

17:09

is engaging in one single pattern

17:11

wreckage the say this is off pattern block

17:14

that what if what

17:16

does that what is that scientist a bench

17:18

chemist it's dupont hundred and

17:20

are all working more than eight

17:22

hours they staring into the into the microscope

17:25

and one day in the beatrice eureka

17:28

that it it's right there do their

17:30

studying nothing happens nothing comes in

17:32

one day was a fun real else wire same

17:34

store sales

17:35

so much different

17:37

the past

17:39

yeah will be seat so much higher

17:41

rates why his death accounts

17:43

receivable starting to increase we

17:46

study patterns in the balance sheet fun

17:48

mouse patterns it's and sumer trends

17:51

whether it's patterns on impact charging

17:53

on the credit cards or in the teachers or teachers best

17:55

example of on this is very elements for with

17:57

you know what happens what five fifteen every night

18:00

the little like clockwork maybe five twenty

18:02

my wife the front door

18:04

i went comes on the three the morning

18:06

i got a big problem she's

18:10

, up with an old boyfriend boyfriend

18:12

having this is elemental and i'll give you one more

18:14

just to make a point in this is what's to pattern recognition

18:17

what he was for an apartment but i just wrote this is actually

18:19

was i had a a

18:21

an associate

18:22

when admin type who

18:25

what we start every day at some friends

18:28

and every day and seven seven

18:30

one she walked to the front or she's

18:32

tremendous now if

18:34

you live forty five minutes away

18:36

that now

18:38

public transportation we all

18:40

know it is mathematically impossible the

18:42

on a on time the same time every night

18:45

so rate for it was very careful would

18:47

obviously be early not to have

18:49

delay and that she must have waited and

18:51

coffee shop or or or or south

18:53

if it was nice weather and then would ascend and

18:55

come back into the office same time i

18:57

talk of now

19:00

we're together for years and one day

19:04

nine nine or five nine

19:08

still a matter of the

19:10

heart in say a word the mornings

19:12

real and we got to work and then the next a son

19:14

o'clock seven o'clock some men about a

19:17

week later and five then

19:20

seventy bucks and then today's around eight

19:22

thirty eight so you don't need to know

19:24

anything more you know whether

19:27

you know

19:29

she is

19:30

a child was terribly sec like it's it's

19:32

life or death or something very

19:35

wrong in the marriage or few self

19:37

as a physical cash or she's carrying

19:39

for and guess what is

19:41

anything i can do to help i'm in

19:43

anyway

19:44

we don't even own and then she said well this

19:46

is what's happening was quite pattern

19:49

, whether it's your spouse or years

19:51

living another company that remind you that

19:53

of you arafat or whether why am i getting strange

19:55

charges my credit cards and so pattern recognition

19:58

the mark this , most and

19:59

the thing is the study

20:02

of folly

20:03

unusual activity the basic

20:05

elemental reigns of the existential

20:07

us would say existence proceeds as

20:09

it's not can move or a sartre

20:12

and in market value

20:15

proceeds price here

20:17

looking for towels unusual

20:19

activity wise is treating three

20:21

times are if you look and then is or what was upgraded

20:24

by morgan said that would explain while

20:26

the stock up ten percent on double the average

20:29

age of i'm it's only twelve noon but there's no

20:31

there wasn't an article on there there was no upgrade

20:34

them more established there's no news on the

20:37

only one thing

20:38

someone expressing of you

20:40

we can't and it's situation us

20:42

the finale is it to

20:45

people are for farms working together

20:47

we're looking for unusual volume

20:50

spikes that move

20:52

price then to

20:54

boss to something that's

20:56

coming more often i people

21:00

someone is ahead of the news

21:03

with zesty approval or earnings be happy

21:06

so a

21:08

the great story that was gonna i was gonna

21:10

say when you're talking about years

21:12

you're associate their there was coming in late we

21:15

always on the desk we used to have the joke

21:17

about the interview suit

21:19

when going on in there you can what allison the guys

21:21

with someone was show up in a little bit chris pursuit

21:23

with a die we're like i interview

21:25

and stuff so that was immediately what pub popped into

21:28

my head when i saw that mm abuse i might

21:30

be a little cynical with a that again is that pattern

21:32

recognition okay so let's go in and

21:34

just talk about this ah

21:36

the way you approach technical analysis

21:39

and the fact that you say that for

21:41

you miss important part by

21:43

you also mention the fact

21:46

that if there is something

21:48

to explain the volume

21:50

you he doesn't mean as much about my

21:52

reading that rights for meaning that i view of

21:54

gets sick as why with so let's let

21:56

let's let's walk through if we if we have

21:59

a twenty dollars

21:59

right

22:01

an average daily vitamins emily on

22:04

any given day in trades to twenty

22:06

dollars and twenty cents and then closes

22:08

one point one million shares next day it's down to nineteen

22:11

ninety one point you might check

22:13

that it was like a twenty on religious

22:15

that's basic equilibrium public health

22:18

you've never her it but stock

22:20

x y z had perfect equilibrium

22:23

today dodgers

22:25

madison little max but a real stock android

22:27

market it's impossible it's mathematically bus stop

22:29

it has a million shares every day on average chance

22:32

have no by the we perfectly clear it which is

22:34

which is the highest bidder

22:36

is nineteen dollars ninety five cents

22:38

and los offers

22:40

twenty but nobody but

22:42

spread by a nickel

22:44

nobody reaches then we would have

22:46

volume zero stocks close

22:49

perfect equilibrium okay okay okay

22:51

so take that the reason why that doesn't happen

22:54

is because in any given day the people that basically

22:58

have to

23:00

the study in college when he lost ark hypothetical

23:02

the trades a million shares on average it's

23:05

best is the best bids ninety ninety five best

23:07

offers twenty nobody moves as perfectly

23:09

were with liberal values but

23:11

what happens is of course so the is

23:13

the lawyers coming into the market that the dead

23:16

person instead he settling new state

23:18

going to socks and is like or

23:20

will weeks we're we're selling is what's what's the

23:22

best bid on this it's my do

23:24

any facts he reaches down embrace the equilibrium

23:27

he sold degree and reach

23:29

and shit the bed and so

23:31

homicide shares interests and then there's

23:33

a new manager coming in the market has been out any

23:35

shred of of my work is gonna get a chance is

23:37

like a what's the he's a and he's watch and he reaches

23:39

up any case

23:42

the any given day that goes on people there will

23:44

be around to stream exists but

23:46

what we're looking for something

23:49

so the hack observers as

23:51

well you see a heavy volume day but

23:53

on every shares as a buyer and seller why

23:55

does divine get assigned to be bullish about as

23:58

is not understand it's work

23:59

here we are way markets work

24:02

is as simple as this as this a score was a search

24:04

that every year every a great trader

24:06

knows the sitting on whether you chilean the pits

24:08

in chicago works is standing on a train

24:10

he does get a bull's brackets at twenty

24:12

i start as equal or remy to people just buying

24:14

and selling to some of settling a stain summers

24:17

putting my works after what we're looking for

24:19

society

24:20

bell goes off the nine

24:22

ninety five by twice

24:24

and all son true the bunch of the on average and

24:27

right away that starts going off at twenty

24:29

twenty twenty can so awesome fifty

24:31

thousand seventy five thousand twenty nine

24:34

thirty five times what

24:35

three to one hundred thousand shares it's nine fifty

24:38

twenty minutes in the day and

24:40

it's already twenty

24:43

when you will find people are like who have just

24:45

like anything else i bother to be ironed prince

24:48

someone just use so they left the oscars

24:50

or the officer lifts now it's twenty six

24:52

the us molson

24:55

another twenty five thousand whopping twenty fifth

24:57

for now the stocks up from twenty produce

24:59

was a twenty fifty and one hundred

25:01

fifty thousand shares of traded it's only eleven

25:03

o'clock and for the millions and

25:05

then she was well the summit some of the spiritual

25:08

if if it's the list offers again now it's let's

25:10

say it's twenty seven also

25:12

read away is another twenty five thousand filled

25:15

a choice of the facts and all sudden sent

25:17

to the while there's a big bucks now the seats twenty

25:19

one offered a twenty one desperate

25:21

twenty said got some of these twenty one now

25:23

all the sun here we are at eleven thirty

25:26

and or six hundred thousand shares one such really

25:28

and twenty one up

25:31

substantially yes up here okay

25:34

now you see their buyers of put someone

25:36

is bridge week or so keep going so now

25:38

of a sudden one o'clock

25:41

is pretty good twenty one know if there was

25:43

a big buyer

25:44

really wanted to get

25:46

into position

25:47

what do you have to do to get you have to keep

25:50

moving sock don't you have that's the definition

25:52

of expressing of you and

25:54

so what we're seeing here in

25:56

this instance right stocks of five

25:58

percent

26:00

it's

26:01

twenty one and something also another

26:04

two hundred thousand shares now it's it's one

26:06

search nine hundred thousand

26:08

shares on the tape such twenty twenty

26:10

one sister

26:11

so what's personify the syria then

26:14

i'm an attorney or this altogether make sense

26:17

start of the day nine for in all

26:19

my life or sickness lehman brothers a deal j

26:21

oppenheimer

26:22

the phone call comes in the desk to traitors

26:24

right twenty thirty men and women on the desk

26:27

pm on the phone it's always just before the

26:29

hey rod hey what's up doc is

26:31

a wanna get and will take a look at zoc

26:33

x y z this is the twenty dollars on just

26:35

talking and he says okay would you think i

26:38

want to do so much of a million

26:41

mix do it that's to the three hundred

26:43

thousand

26:44

in and the traitor right away just signed

26:46

twenty seven times when he goes well off when when when

26:48

i use it trades the millionaire

26:50

that you wanna eight

26:53

hundred none are thousand shows that he's it's sort

26:55

of annoy the pieces your my son is ,

26:57

army of along with what were you are we

26:59

playing golf unaware of of yes we're playing

27:01

golf on wednesday as yet most most

27:04

that's his job just finished

27:07

and also as i described it's she's and cause

27:09

and backlash is getting sale visitors

27:11

the corner one for each call them attorney said

27:13

there's another said yes because i'm on his was the

27:16

and it's twenty one of the last we're

27:19

always filled on six hundred thousand

27:21

people obviously with is a big by aren't you census

27:24

to price makes you you

27:26

, me to work the v whopper mean if i'm

27:29

it's you know i to get you know if if

27:32

why would someone do

27:34

that so insensitivity to prices

27:36

conflicts with stock either

27:38

is drunk

27:39

wanted mind is having a hose i'm not

27:42

war

27:43

he's expressing conference when you're insensitive

27:46

to prison you

27:48

meet it what it means it is a simple as that

27:50

is you know something or you think

27:52

you know so the

27:55

day goes on it's three thirty

27:58

the user a cause moment

27:59

you should you only seven hundred alex he said

28:02

for i get another hundred his fingerprints twenty

28:04

two twenty five he said

28:06

so now a days closed instead

28:08

of twenty nine to fifty took

28:11

a train at twenty two twenty five and

28:13

three million shares now

28:16

there's no news barron's article

28:18

know and was operator downgrades no

28:21

information the company the

28:23

i personified this is not only one player

28:25

sometimes it's of other bursts but the

28:28

prisoners as the volume their buyers

28:30

and sellers every scientists mars in a markets were divine

28:33

is assigned to the person keeps breaking

28:35

the eclipse that one buyer

28:38

that was a torso and i

28:40

was and druckenmiller was it who was

28:42

bacon was one of the market grades are was

28:44

it's just a sort of amid chap tmt

28:47

guy was very concerned about dispossessed

28:49

and so low and looking for and is

28:51

insensitivity to price what price mean

28:53

by that is never going to

28:55

the car dealership it's it's what's the particular forty

28:58

five i'll give you fifty rapid you're

29:01

, a necklace for a

29:03

spouse a it's in her us actors

29:05

her us us our we're looking for why

29:07

would someone pay up or when you sit on the

29:09

way down what to do with pressing a pressing

29:11

trying to get out of socks it's because they've

29:14

done better choosing choose better chance at

29:16

better jesus and this pianist to

29:18

the south and earnings next week is really

29:21

and so there's no such thing as smart one that's an offensive

29:24

race offensive was finale smarter than while into welding

29:26

smarter than smarter wrote he was more than and

29:28

blackrock snopes on any given position

29:31

as someone who's close

29:33

one man one woman ritual people

29:35

and they've got a dead to rights and when

29:37

you're very very tough your

29:40

insensitive to price you want to get in or

29:42

get out and there's two ways you get

29:44

ninety nine percent of the time it's better to in case

29:47

better channel checks better due diligence

29:49

wonder how the time switching

29:53

mancini there's a lot of people who get information and

29:55

the government's looking for all types and six when

29:57

we have in two days later this i was on my last

29:59

star or during or after approval

30:01

and printing thirty of the open but their fingerprints

30:04

left behind and so pattern recognition

30:06

is looking it's like dusting for fingerprints was

30:09

this the never know but someone was

30:11

here

30:11

expressing of the

30:13

very confident

30:15

that's fascinating now you have the ability

30:17

to go through your charts and sure

30:19

the screen with us so why don't

30:22

we kind of jumps rude here and it's get

30:24

to as desk for some fingerprints

30:26

in the market silver spring singer a now sure

30:29

we do some top down low for my glasses

30:31

riddles so let's let's do that and

30:34

so i thought we could do

30:36

is look at other sequencing is very

30:38

important him the

30:40

recognition sorts to the sequencing

30:42

in the markets those are short term intermediate

30:46

term over the last denote several years and then

30:48

really long term

30:49

so that

30:52

let's talk about first

30:54

the importance of market in turnips

30:56

and and what is it tentacles nonsense

30:59

so i'm gonna start going to add some columns

31:01

december fifteenth march thirteenth may

31:04

twelve and engine forty okay so here

31:06

we go

31:07

on december fifteenth

31:10

you know that the snp picked on january

31:12

force

31:14

but equities basically teach

31:17

seventy eight months prior we know the msc

31:19

i our country world index excellent

31:21

us stocks pete fourteen months we

31:23

, that the world transportation excellence

31:25

of the classic downstairs but if

31:27

you simply just a look at the russell three thousand

31:30

which is the broadest i written states represents

31:32

ninety percent the vessel capital on

31:34

december fifteenth rumor the markers on markers make a

31:36

new high

31:38

the general

31:39

what on december fifteenth the market was

31:41

down a mere three point four percent

31:44

this

31:44

the week form of analysis looking at a chart

31:47

of the market the prince was the parts

31:49

compose the whole the whole comprises

31:52

the parts despite being down

31:54

a mere three point four percent and going to be was

31:56

look at the internals index

31:58

itself is done three points for

32:00

look at this thorough fifty two percent

32:03

stamps were down twenty

32:07

practice was published at the time because

32:09

using this is a big trouble internally

32:12

the to secure your swords excluding at excluding

32:14

at of the market

32:16

there's like you walk in the doctor to use sands

32:18

eight feet away and says

32:20

i think he looks okay like for me i don't know

32:23

some you have no idea what idea doubt are not diabetes

32:26

high blood pressure is and risk with a place

32:28

that's how we we we don't judge a book

32:30

by it's cover we get under the hood in the car and

32:32

so the week form of analysis looking at index

32:35

as determine here index texas down three points

32:37

were actually went to but internally seventy

32:40

six percent of the constituents were already down ten

32:42

percent sixty two would and fifteen

32:44

meticulous thirty five percent

32:47

were already down thirty percent to was all

32:49

coming apart it wasn't seen

32:51

by the investment community and then

32:54

we go to march

32:55

now it's starting to come apart but look how much worse

32:58

the index itself is only thirteen at

33:00

that point fifty

33:02

five fifty percent so started on thirty

33:04

and you fast for

33:06

with the internals let and

33:08

so it's no different than you civil what's

33:10

the average way in the class that means nothing

33:13

there could be someone has pushed or france's we all went

33:15

to a sporting event i came late

33:17

right hockey basketball by whatever and

33:20

i looked at the scoreboard and i said well we're doing great and

33:22

everyone tournaments in our in kill somebody

33:24

mean for winning said no actually

33:26

so and so's heard you out sources

33:29

as a terrible night and le bron james

33:31

carry molson

33:32

you get in the point is this was

33:34

mask but anyone who's doing their work

33:36

looking at because it was new to we're on the prices

33:39

are coming at us now of course with them apart

33:41

and now everyone's on barest when that

33:43

was something to do six and eight months ago so

33:46

anyway that's very important let's talk about

33:48

sequence

33:49

we had four one two three four distinct

33:52

the loss and rebounds since the gym

33:54

forth

33:56

see the mere for tables let's let's

33:58

look at them

34:00

jan for i

34:02

one two three four

34:05

then four distinct rebounds one

34:08

two three four sorts play

34:10

them of area or first drawdown jan

34:12

four we drop twelve point four percent

34:14

then we ricochet he pointing

34:17

and i'm a drop ten point sized and

34:19

a ricochet four point seven and then

34:21

we just seventy morning and then we were actually

34:23

nine point six image of twelve point

34:25

nine and we just richardson

34:28

so

34:29

the point of sequencing is that any good

34:32

up people lot

34:34

of the word essay by the dip what is the debt it's

34:36

a counter trembles when you're ascending

34:40

oh up trends are defined by punctuated

34:42

by countertrend those periods

34:44

where it goes down debs

34:48

what a reciprocal of course the same when

34:50

you're at a time for and you have countered

34:53

these enron have five

34:56

seven maybe twenty thirty

34:58

percent rally on what is you

35:00

always have killer trends whether you're up to

35:02

were in a downturn that's elemental and

35:04

you we tried to for a short term work time

35:08

the the sequence in terms

35:10

of intermediate term

35:13

this is the entire two thousand nine to than twenty

35:15

two the market we've

35:17

touched the to the penny the midpoint

35:21

the own hunch is that ultimately we worked in

35:23

for not on the lower band prospectively

35:25

to the bottom end of the lore van which

35:27

gets you into the thirty two thirty three hundred

35:30

but let's look at really long cycle and

35:32

then of a movie called one other

35:34

thing and we can now we could quit or who anyway

35:37

like i'm no drawings

35:39

know annotations now watch this there's

35:42

a a seven graduate take it away put it back

35:44

the way put it back let's

35:47

say you are so fortune dumb luck or brilliance

35:49

the most have was each we're married trader george

35:52

soros himself

35:53

who bought

35:55

on the low

35:56

that week after this the nineties

35:58

october nineteen i

36:00

can a salad and easily genius to

36:03

souls in march thirty of

36:05

two thousand

36:06

the you bought on the low then sold

36:08

at the time then

36:10

you did it again on low low in

36:12

own nine you bought march

36:15

six two thousand nine

36:18

the financial crisis love and you sold on jan

36:20

four this you twenty twenty

36:22

two

36:23

then he watches

36:24

to those look identical dishes

36:26

that absolute low met in a seven to the

36:28

absolute peak of march of two thousand

36:31

and this is the absolute lobo nine to

36:33

the beach or the identical

36:34

they're identical why would a

36:36

half years to a half years about

36:39

magnitude this was six hundred seventeen

36:41

this is sick twenty one so there

36:43

are cycles we know their daily cycles

36:46

we know that sir today we know their monthly

36:48

cycles and the moon we're so

36:50

we will believe in biblical cycles the

36:52

point is this is a very clear cycle

36:54

by my we

36:56

have

36:59

the fellow period

37:00

and that's

37:03

years and nine months and what's so

37:05

interesting is if you think back and i didn't included

37:08

here but you have

37:10

the eighty seven

37:12

then you have this

37:13

well matter run six hundred twenty percent

37:16

you have the the dot com

37:19

wipe out for basically a decade effectively

37:21

and then you have this twelve and of iraq there

37:24

, one that preceded also twelve and a half

37:26

years think about that we know there was a seventy three

37:28

seventy four their mark and was two years sword

37:30

littering generous rates went down fifty percent

37:33

if you were so genius or brilliant to

37:35

block on the law after

37:37

seventy three seventy four bear market but chin

37:40

one nineteen seventy five count forward

37:42

wealthy and a half years i

37:44

did seventy five to nineteen eighty seven is twelve

37:47

years january to october

37:49

there's twelve years and ten months

37:52

twelve years and ten months and

37:54

we get the after the seventy three seventy

37:56

four

37:57

the market twelve that's the third

37:59

time

37:59

twelve and

38:01

half years twelve and a half years twelve

38:03

years we're clearly going into

38:06

a foul doesn't matter how low

38:08

it goes are in the lower but it's not appear

38:10

to be overweight equity this is a very

38:12

clear sequencing to my eye so we

38:14

know is that a ball phase of airfares of office

38:17

we notices

38:19

if anyone's interest in his dhaka

38:21

course you can have it

38:23

magnitude duration and returns

38:26

and then real returns

38:28

the

38:30

anyway that's my sort of view on things that if

38:32

saba we could sort of a gold or i can

38:35

watch you know before we go on to go to the

38:37

i've had the good fortune to be a when

38:39

of your nights where you have

38:41

the institutional clients out into

38:43

one of the things that really struck me when you

38:45

went through it was your it

38:47

here it's on kind of a non traditional

38:50

moving averages and specifically

38:53

i'd love to easy to talk to them about

38:55

the fact that you don't believe in the two

38:57

hundred a movie average you have your own and

38:59

it just how you came about this in n

39:01

y u think this works i'd love that kind

39:03

of understand that a little better

39:06

sure so

39:08

the singers the i use the

39:10

hundred and fifty day moving average have no proud

39:12

of other ship i inherited my teacher and mentor

39:14

in in sports german cruz

39:17

should ah determine but so

39:20

curious is that the the

39:23

yum

39:24

the two hundred in we average is seems to be the

39:26

one that

39:27

the popular in all

39:29

my life and thirty years i've ask people why to use

39:31

the two hundred because

39:33

i your because all time you've just ask why do you

39:35

hundred and fifty and i've

39:38

gotten three answers and thirty years

39:41

well that's the number of calendar

39:43

days in the some something mishmash

39:46

know and , the

39:49

second one has been on

39:52

the

39:53

well

39:54

hey you know that was

39:56

that was the that was the default

40:00

you do sometimes or drive a cargo that's what that's

40:02

what lover defaulted to watch addresses

40:05

this is daily the in the

40:07

third was

40:08

you know cornerstone

40:09

okay ah there's

40:13

the be some reason right and reason to

40:15

work there was done by vince vaughn was that there

40:17

is that quarterly phenomena

40:19

in markets his associate with earnings

40:21

and ah starts dropping

40:23

gap on earnings drop and gap again and

40:27

the idea was thirty does force fifty two

40:29

and he was trying to smooth

40:31

out there the phenomenon to

40:33

the took two quarters was the premise

40:36

you never a certain either at twenty

40:38

six week moving average

40:40

that know it's hundred today's thirty weeks

40:42

then through trial and error by sort

40:45

of stretching the tales a little bit

40:46

it came out as a higher hit rate and i might

40:48

be other

40:49

put it

40:51

bird on here let's just do this

40:53

so if we were to do you

40:56

qq for instance printing instance

40:59

printing team after this

41:01

and let's to add to your chart

41:06

what are moving averages supposed to do is measure trend

41:08

we can either

41:09

you draw trendline watch i'll draw

41:11

tramline with all agree that sort of the trend

41:13

plus or minus

41:15

that you're used to do that with pencil and paper all night

41:17

talk after start there were no computers

41:20

and per se it in late eighties that

41:22

would that software programs weren't good and

41:25

the will be up all night so we went to all that a moving

41:27

averages an automated travel would

41:29

all agreed that that's essentially the trend

41:32

however one wants to drive

41:34

see that's effectively the transit

41:36

the queues rak and so are moving average

41:38

should approximate that will watch

41:42

if i put in on jimmy average

41:45

no take away the trend line

41:47

the queues touch don't touch it

41:49

that you did you watch when i put

41:51

in the two hundred and then when you rally back

41:54

for quit his attack the that

41:57

happen

41:59

the two hundred and watch a change

42:01

this two two hundred

42:04

and

42:07

it didn't touch the tuna day mary

42:09

up once on the way up

42:11

that would adam both

42:14

esa major we go

42:18

to be worthwhile

42:19

okay so we

42:21

would agree the

42:24

how did you average serves as a as the trend

42:26

lines which i was saying is just an automated

42:28

trauma it's trying to pull that's

42:30

the actual ten months which one did the job

42:34

the hundred today not

42:36

the two hundred let's try a stark

42:38

like now for to stomach points

42:42

two years doubt where is a trip back to

42:44

to products and then where does it throwback to

42:47

the two hundred is too slow

42:51

he not only didn't thousand so again

42:53

just to be clear if i put in just

42:56

the one get rid of the two hundred

42:59

let me get rid of it but you can see this year is

43:01

what we found over times is that the

43:03

moving average says the high as hitler in terms of vs

43:05

trend in where you are in relation to trend

43:08

is

43:09

doing average in that so

43:11

heritage and nov never look back and stood

43:14

out can i get sorted interrupt was air kartik

43:16

bread just a quick question have you gone and actually

43:18

studied them like you say that you've looked over

43:20

time it have you done

43:22

as quantitatively or is it just i've

43:24

had was i never was effects or

43:26

over the over the years and they , tobacco

43:29

the same thing said it's as a higher every i mean

43:31

more detailed it was the difference it's it's close

43:33

but it it it a higher hit rate

43:36

then a tune in terms of

43:38

where you are in relation to where you've been

43:40

on , back is finding edo

43:43

you subverted me i've subverted me i've

43:45

looked at both and i've adopted

43:47

your one hundred fifty the other thing that i love about

43:50

your analysis as you have i

43:52

have ten of for a cheat sheet i

43:54

would say of different patterns the

43:56

new off and will pull that oppose wonder doesn't like

43:58

it puts you on the spot is a

43:59

there to pull ups that one

44:02

all right the dentist viable by junctures

44:04

and i call my children's because of to their from those

44:06

who went before us just as a we found

44:08

them indicates my teacher mentor

44:11

who in turn again edwards and jays

44:13

you knew them personally will turn from

44:15

springfield mass a basic level

44:17

said when success charlestown for identify

44:19

will buy junctures for it and of animal

44:21

shelters and so bears

44:23

to bullish reversals are very important

44:26

bullish too bearish reversals

44:29

very important and so we're looking for

44:31

sequencing when something is turns from

44:33

bowl to bear for the reciprocal

44:36

turns from there to both so this is a

44:38

bearish to bullish reversal and

44:40

what happened as to notice if

44:42

you overshoot john very average the

44:45

entry points on that check back know to switch

44:47

back to

44:48

the penny what's the reciprocal

44:50

of that the accused once

44:53

you bridge trend the shorts it when

44:55

it's rows back rats throwback

44:57

to align it's than flat

44:59

you the reciprocal of a check

45:02

back to align

45:04

the treadmill necessarily and

45:06

so i'm looking for t inflection points based

45:08

on the cave drawings bears to bush

45:10

reversals very important

45:13

the bullish to bears reversals

45:15

are very

45:16

so just as down when

45:19

it had one the great shorts you

45:21

wait for start to break and then notice

45:23

when you get a throwback it's going to

45:26

you fx that throwback that

45:28

moment there is identical to

45:30

the slovaks

45:32

choose which is a reciprocal

45:34

of the check back

45:36

in february

45:39

the reason that these are they

45:41

and

45:43

we do i do is based on the difference

45:45

i love that expression

45:47

the cave drawings okay let's talk about

45:49

using those caves rags furry analyzing

45:52

gould

45:53

oh sure so let's let's look at go

45:55

the just and they would

45:58

to to talk about got they're they're only

45:59

three types of people to be fair

46:02

carrillo world when it relates

46:04

to go out there people that never

46:06

goal will never own gold

46:09

the parts

46:10

and then at the opposite people always own

46:12

goals of it will make fun of them is bold bombs

46:15

or whatever but the always and and then there's

46:17

the middle crowd who

46:19

want own don't try to see said rach

46:22

has a hatch during times of

46:24

well activity

46:26

shirts super the middle ground first

46:29

the very clear to

46:30

the homes or queen rose or clean colors

46:33

are clean and what it is simply every

46:36

twenty percent plus sell off history

46:38

the snp from an all timer

46:41

start date

46:42

and day and the return

46:45

of the snp

46:46

then simply what gold did

46:49

the exact same time

46:51

the right column

46:53

for those who seek to

46:56

successor not be in gold

46:58

as gold as

46:59

it is inconsistent

47:01

and here we are just now jan four pigs

47:03

june sixteen low

47:04

isn't he a twenty four point five and go to

47:07

front spread of twenty seven

47:09

percent so addressing the middle crowd

47:11

i think it's a good endeavor i myself

47:14

engage in this kind of thing arms

47:16

and embracing goals

47:19

as something

47:21

it's a practical was a hedge

47:23

it is it's time tested

47:26

so much talk about the other two

47:28

people who never home goals are people

47:30

who always among the people who never involved

47:33

in oh the horror of this a barber's relic this he's

47:35

been was time and money to how the ground article

47:37

buried back in the ground and evolved still

47:39

bit as carry them in a

47:41

cost to carry and has no yields

47:44

but the truth is gold is a long term investment

47:47

so let's let's prove that this is

47:49

a three year comparative char

47:50

gold

47:52

something of a gold color that or it

47:54

and innocent

47:55

there even money

47:56

this is a cyberattack

47:59

the even money this

48:02

is a fifteen year chart

48:04

the market peak in two thousand seven

48:06

to prison

48:08

there even money so we're starting to see

48:10

that goal this

48:11

no

48:13

here's the snp from the dot com peak

48:15

here's

48:18

the s m t with dividends reinvested

48:20

taken away but a bit

48:23

the way put it back obviously dividends

48:25

reports as the index itself and

48:27

this is unix with different has

48:29

golden forget about the as and be how

48:32

school done

48:33

with dividends reinvest mean

48:36

the blown it away

48:39

how for years to go back to actually

48:41

have gold and the snp total

48:43

return even money

48:46

twenty four years

48:48

so if you come at a college at twenty two twenty

48:52

fourth anyone is essentially younger

48:54

than fifty five

48:55

there's been right to have gold their entire

48:57

investment queer because it is kept

49:00

up with yes in key west

49:02

dividends reinvested which most people don't do

49:04

must be protected him though

49:07

they didn't ask

49:09

i think oldest

49:11

one friend had found to the penny

49:13

penny penny is down the trend

49:15

again and i think ones right to have some either

49:18

is a hedge or as longer term

49:20

part of a portrait

49:22

through that almost the reciprocal of your

49:24

ah your ,

49:27

called the fact that we're about to go into

49:30

eight years or whatever was scared i'll appeared

49:32

out of how many years but years fallow period rights

49:34

or period or or crash or something that's and

49:36

ns and goal this on the opposite side

49:39

of that you know what's interesting and you'll remember

49:41

this when i was a kid

49:43

you would go into a mural see where to quicken

49:45

rally or merrill lynch office and they always

49:47

had him as may deserve to the

49:49

have these little pamphlets right color pamphlet

49:52

be open up in the threats we always had always patch

49:54

on his ass allocation they

49:56

always all my life and seventies

49:58

if the always has

49:59

this much for starts in the house you

50:02

this much for bonds for for tests and this much

50:04

for of there was always a part of any

50:06

nineteen ninety nineteen

50:09

don't close the gold

50:11

much the they removed

50:14

gold was

50:15

the joke

50:17

and you wanted to be

50:18

technology and dot com and growth

50:21

so something that had been in the pamphlets for

50:24

if not longer

50:25

was taken out classic right

50:27

timing air said you don't victim

50:29

it from the gold guess what was the absolute

50:32

or peak in the market and

50:34

the absence of low end goal

50:37

if it isn't bad that exerts

50:39

i you know i think you and i are roughly the

50:41

same age i'd i don't remember the gold

50:43

pamphlets but you're you're probably not have ever do

50:45

the asset allocation yeah the asset allocation

50:47

but there was a livable wage freeze in in in in

50:50

the pamphlet say the i like a ice because

50:52

it didn't even notice or maybe you know what it

50:54

is were canadian we probably leave the golden

50:56

because role physical smart as school

50:59

said you call browns folly right to

51:01

suggest her for bracing for his old a

51:03

great deal of it's cool that alone is why

51:05

and i think listen the bank of canada did this

51:07

as we weren't that far off we also down

51:09

tic to do as well so if you're

51:12

europe's we rated the the browns folly

51:14

was a it was a classic time there was a very

51:17

lucrative for those the were buying gold a third

51:19

at that point we nobody wanted it and

51:22

carter i know your time soluble so we'll

51:24

we'll finish up here with our five questions

51:27

that we we always ask all of our guests

51:29

and list or with your favorite

51:31

investment books

51:33

read one is so been referred to here

51:35

is known as edwards initiate a societal this

51:37

amazon as to what you just look it up his first

51:40

edition magic would have one of those

51:42

signed by my sit your mentor and that ceiling

51:44

that ceiling the market wizards interviews

51:46

which are fastened i would serve

51:49

the wicket okay so

51:51

next question is do think the great

51:53

traders or investors are born

51:56

are made

51:57

six it's not

51:59

or it's

51:59

there are people who are just

52:02

inherently great and there a lot of

52:04

people who threw a lot of hard

52:06

work and trial and error and studying

52:08

their trades it's and learning being

52:11

coached and working under great mentor

52:13

have become great traders were not it's

52:16

but there are people who are just born

52:18

gifted and seven nose for ferreting

52:21

out opportunities and taking a dollar and turning

52:23

to three then

52:26

there are people who have to hard work in a lot

52:28

of training and a lot of you know

52:30

a stick mit have become

52:33

a great i think this is my best answer i've

52:35

ever heard i was honestly i think you you summed

52:37

it up perfectly a okay the next

52:39

one is i'm if you

52:41

will will actually let's move on to are too

52:43

kind of strategy slash a

52:45

market questions will start with the byron

52:48

we're surprised by her and we love love to

52:50

publish his yearly annual

52:52

surprises and woody to find a surprise

52:54

as is something that the market would

52:56

assign a less than one third

52:59

chance of occurring over the next year but

53:01

he believes has a greater than fifty

53:03

fifty chance of happening what

53:05

would be your byron and between

53:07

surprise for the next year i'm just one

53:10

thing on the first i i understand why they feel like i've gotten

53:12

, bang mean where the strauss at morgan

53:15

stanley they were you're a do

53:17

all sorts august big big

53:19

big man apparently worked in the teams

53:21

over in it's it's a marketing thing

53:23

we did something called random gleanings at the

53:25

gleanings j it it because who

53:28

who can assign us odds are can very mathematical

53:31

thing right so thing it's a it's just to catch people's

53:33

attention i'm not i'm not pooh poohing you're making fun

53:35

of it just to know what it is right it right it

53:37

look we're talking about it many years later it's

53:39

people love to read that it the why the

53:42

[unk] warren buffet's newsletter or it it's one

53:44

of those things that that took on a life of its own

53:46

and it's a kitchen sink kind of thing

53:48

she put anything sink the that's crazy that's the point and

53:50

anything could happen right and odds

53:52

are only determined by big computers

53:54

by people who do actuarial the and so there are no

53:56

oz it's just you know he himself signing

53:59

and odds

53:59

not an automaker but all then

54:02

i was any i would say the other something being lower

54:04

that somehow we get out of

54:06

this and are making big big new

54:08

highs i would say that's a very

54:11

if you know anybody but do you think there's a chance

54:13

of a jew think that the market i'm

54:16

he during the market is over estimating

54:18

the chance of that occurring are under arrest me the chance

54:20

of that occurring was the sorry

54:22

i mean i would say the fixtures

54:24

of that occurring is almost zero if i could

54:26

make i'd like him make are these are created

54:28

so i was too that would have to be if

54:30

you were if you already have a burger barn

54:33

when cyclists that would be something

54:35

would be on their big new highs

54:37

and because i don't think anyone anyone things

54:39

prime is expected or

54:41

right now the now the stretch this

54:44

question is is a fellow canadian by then he

54:46

moved on fox and on cox's to talk about

54:48

investing on was spawn feeds sixteen

54:51

on it's way to page one meaning

54:53

the you don't buy was on the front cover to their you

54:55

buy what's gonna be on the front cover to moral stupid

54:58

dawn clocks tape investment the you

55:00

would say

55:02

that's what i think i would say this you

55:05

can spend a lotta time

55:07

building a portfolio and it

55:09

is it really worth it to say well we could have overwhelmed

55:11

walmart and underweight

55:14

and target or have them both and have

55:16

a little higher exposure consumer discretion

55:18

versus staples and then coke and proctor

55:20

but no a you know clorox

55:23

that can you never going to get anywhere right

55:25

that's just an interest you to a benchmark you have

55:27

to have something that's truly the

55:30

risky but also where you could have a page sixteen

55:32

turn to page one and it by definition

55:35

as to something that's a disruptor

55:37

some that against that could and

55:40

hopefully a become so the and so

55:42

i would say as a seem as an aggregate as

55:44

a as an area he would have to be

55:47

biotech right so beaten up just

55:50

down some , them by

55:52

treating below cash but in aggregate the

55:54

xp eyes is me chests

55:56

that having a high

55:58

exposure to broad basket

56:01

of biotechnology stocks the like

56:03

shelter in general has a sector both

56:05

for it's offensive and defensive

56:07

characteristics that biotech

56:10

a is the the

56:12

kind of thing that can go

56:14

from page sixteen to page one where you

56:16

know dupont or ford motor that just kind

56:18

of wrath so , that's a great

56:20

answer is wondering is there any signs

56:23

like when you read the tea leaves of your charts

56:25

that that is a that were seen relative

56:27

strength are there any sign that i

56:30

e it's a it's an important point that we got

56:33

right down to the coven

56:35

the show you where you were

56:37

how you behave at a critical juncture is

56:39

critical to be right those lows and

56:42

and exhibiting impressive relative

56:44

so since mid may

56:46

biotics up and twelve percent yes and fused

56:48

now

56:49

three or four i think it is

56:52

finding its footing and that it

56:54

asymmetrical this one's wrong

56:56

and gets involved with probably doesn't

56:58

hurt you much kind of models but if if

57:01

if we're right you get an outsize

57:03

return

57:04

okay a the that's a great answer

57:06

i think don't clash would be really proud allow and arms

57:09

final question if you were to give advice

57:11

to young person starting in our and see what

57:14

advice would you guess

57:15

oh not aware of this one is as

57:17

as as straightforward as it could be hello my

57:19

life i've met young people they're

57:22

in nervous banking there is

57:24

a man was job with their trip they're not

57:26

actually involved and

57:28

you see women on bob there were the first

57:31

thing and only thing is you have

57:33

to have money on the table and silks

57:35

or if i were at i've done this of interview with

57:37

fisher though i know switching and i'm

57:40

i can you show me your trade scripts one

57:43

i mean you have an american do we have an interest

57:45

me or schwab he was about nine or zero

57:48

interest interest it's it's that's

57:50

how you learn is and so there's a great expression

57:53

the march

57:54

the only place where first

57:56

you get the exam

57:58

then you

57:59

why

58:02

does not need to focus studies now i'm ready know

58:04

it's else who pushes you talk about academically

58:06

we've all done options are you to try this out

58:09

and you literally teacher had him

58:11

to how

58:14

that works

58:15

the only place where first

58:17

you get the exams venue get the less

58:20

the someone's not having it active

58:22

interest in the market with their own money

58:25

the i think

58:27

they're dude and so yes the question

58:29

is

58:29

trade get yourself involved

58:32

and you will learn things only

58:34

from

58:35

that's awesome okay quarter or

58:38

what are you tell people little bit more about your

58:40

from our that if anyone's is

58:42

city getting your research and and and

58:44

how it all works give us the whole spiel

58:46

you're so well adjusted going back

58:49

to that starting story so i've been on the sell side

58:51

of riches

58:53

thirty years and

58:55

so we're charting started the

58:57

from us forget was sold out to another

58:59

from an issue

59:01

i was just facing two things it was that

59:04

we've been in kobe and in was

59:06

traveling three that

59:08

of four days a week right no in town

59:10

so fresh and so you every week

59:12

he always be and i was facing the travel schedule

59:14

started was to be asked and dallas houston san

59:16

antonio trips and actually he was the chicago

59:19

milwaukee detroit trip and

59:21

then also the new deal was

59:23

a lot of stocks restricted

59:25

stock and so service returning

59:28

and so i am one of hundreds

59:31

thousands of tourists in the truth is in this

59:33

is candid i don't know anything you don't

59:36

i've just spent a lifetime studying and

59:38

learning getting exams getting my head and tips

59:41

and so what worth charting is

59:43

an i think in this sense it's unique there a lot of

59:45

great choice and me and i know

59:48

the

59:49

and they work for big suicide firms

59:51

their research into really available

59:54

to the individual

59:57

maybe indirectly through a broker

1:00:01

we have it's to supplies and

1:00:03

talking the biggest pension plans mutual funds

1:00:05

hedge funds in the world every day so

1:00:07

not only we an institutional

1:00:10

company technical analysis price we

1:00:13

also have that same output available

1:00:16

for individuals which typically is

1:00:18

not the case and self worth charting

1:00:21

is an online subscription service

1:00:23

where the content i

1:00:25

disseminate the team disseminates for the

1:00:27

biggest institutional i

1:00:29

into the world is available was a

1:00:31

slightly different with a depth to individuals

1:00:35

and so in that sense there are a lot of great

1:00:37

institutional technicians and their lot of people

1:00:39

who have online services with i don't think there's

1:00:41

anyone that has been sort

1:00:43

of i rights for fifteen years top

1:00:46

one two or three institutional

1:00:48

level of quality of who's also making

1:00:50

their product available two

1:00:53

oh right that green so foods they wanna

1:00:55

find out more about that products where do

1:00:57

they go

1:00:58

is go round the internet and it's worth

1:01:01

chardy dot com

1:01:03

and that carter i'd love your expression

1:01:05

in it reminds me of the one that i've actually adopted

1:01:07

for myself as i say the macro tours all

1:01:09

they do is bring twenty five years of mistakes to

1:01:12

the party and it's very similar

1:01:14

and i loved the the humility

1:01:17

that's huge as approach the markets because

1:01:19

if you don't you're going to get your head handed to

1:01:21

you and listen the i've listened

1:01:23

to your technical analysis

1:01:26

and of for those who listens to show

1:01:28

for a long time know that i'm not a

1:01:30

big technical analysis flap fan

1:01:32

because i sign a lot of them up

1:01:36

a fine too much certainty the things in there

1:01:38

is a little too much bhutto but i always find myself

1:01:40

gravitated always to your

1:01:42

analysis and i feel a coach easy to spot

1:01:45

finds a way to make it set a simple

1:01:47

yet ah something that everyone's

1:01:49

overlooked and it just ends

1:01:51

up more the often than not what your trees you

1:01:54

put them up they work so i highly

1:01:56

suggest everyone go have a look at were charging

1:01:58

us it's a the service and

1:02:00

i just want to thank you again for your time to

1:02:03

syria with us today

1:02:05

the moment for a pleasure thinking about

1:02:07

thanks carter

1:02:10

alright books it's that time a month again it's

1:02:12

the time when harris compliment aka a copy

1:02:14

joins us harris thanks for coming on the

1:02:17

hippo to have me on for the while it

1:02:19

has been a while since i've bad shadow with you

1:02:21

and i do have some stuff i want to

1:02:23

talk to about with uranium and energies

1:02:26

but before we start with those lists dig

1:02:28

into the homebuilders the

1:02:30

crowd favorite at ,

1:02:32

is it's as if it's the hatred out there

1:02:35

for our poor little homebuilder stocks

1:02:37

is unbelievable and actually to be thirty

1:02:39

you you you're not really homebuilders as much

1:02:41

as you are like oh

1:02:44

what would you call home improvements

1:02:47

a wonderful your thesis whether

1:02:49

you call the other though supply chain

1:02:51

for homebuilders a lie

1:02:54

hotel is a really terrible business

1:02:56

you lot of posts a land the prep

1:02:58

alleged to have to have you have to deliver the how's

1:03:01

he the you at the whole time

1:03:03

fighting you know your margins and cost

1:03:05

pressures and hope he can get the job done on

1:03:07

time and it is a terrible place either

1:03:09

way it's capital tied up ah the

1:03:11

while these are building trades

1:03:13

he says supply chain companies are phenomenal

1:03:16

businesses that is turn over there working capital

1:03:18

over and over again

1:03:20

and have a decent margin during get in return

1:03:22

on capital or just seen

1:03:24

in all in how long some these other companies

1:03:26

that are supplying a building products

1:03:29

to the homebuilders he had almost like the pics and

1:03:31

sellable arguments

1:03:33

the year earlier you don't get him a bridge

1:03:35

spine the gold companies get rich

1:03:37

are selling the selling to the people that

1:03:39

are trying to look prosper for gold okay

1:03:41

so what's happened know you know we

1:03:43

have we seen the i guess powers

1:03:45

killed the real with their recovery and they've

1:03:47

shot these stocks

1:03:49

yep pretty much i mean everyone

1:03:52

has ptsd even two thousand and eight and

1:03:55

i'm in love god mortgage rates

1:03:57

are five of the that almost any moment in time

1:03:59

the for the last decade now considered really

1:04:02

good arm is a few months of tts

1:04:04

see the good of a housing crash and

1:04:06

pounds truth is you're not having a housing crash

1:04:09

yet so much issues with affordability

1:04:11

by like to joke that you know the sun last

1:04:13

year there are ten people it showed up for each

1:04:15

home for sale another like sex tonight

1:04:18

it is a tip of the stuff athens

1:04:20

i think that's really the the trend here

1:04:23

it's a real disconnect between what your seat on

1:04:25

main street vs was

1:04:28

that's usually how it is our

1:04:32

a week name is he do you mind the

1:04:34

some of the names that you like

1:04:37

yes sir i mean i'm in a

1:04:39

builder's first source and absent labatt company

1:04:41

i these well managed all the money goes into

1:04:43

buybacks it's kind of seen return

1:04:45

capital it's something

1:04:47

about consolidator in the industry and

1:04:49

as they can to consolidate the marches your

1:04:52

expand i think their margins are structurally

1:04:54

expand by with caught fifty bucks a year as

1:04:56

consolidate the industry they

1:04:58

could end up being it's enough amazingly

1:05:01

lucrative high are oh i see basis

1:05:03

the why do you people the symbol for that one of

1:05:05

the ldr okay build the are

1:05:07

okay that's one of the middle seat what are their names

1:05:09

you have that you like

1:05:11

i like louisiana pacific tigres

1:05:14

lp acts i they're they're

1:05:16

in the oh as be industry is basically five

1:05:18

players laughs it's really consolidate quite a lot

1:05:21

and yeah by players

1:05:23

laugh t and up with a rational pricey

1:05:25

hopefully and you're the man

1:05:27

for always be just tracks their

1:05:30

homes and destruction inactivity

1:05:32

mandel stay there elevated then

1:05:34

there are shifting increasingly to the

1:05:36

citing product they have an evil to the average

1:05:38

whole america it's you're over forty years old

1:05:40

and the upper plate deciding the

1:05:43

so you either the businesses pivoting something

1:05:45

that's a much higher return on capital business

1:05:48

less cyclical business on the

1:05:50

left target price a lumber ago as be is

1:05:52

and i dare you to

1:05:54

keep take market share in the business and if

1:05:56

you just look at are siding this is is worth way more

1:05:58

than though the market cap is

1:06:01

and a you to get the a dominant

1:06:03

number to always be producer the united

1:06:05

states for free

1:06:07

the actually negative on which is

1:06:09

or this is t cheap in my book as

1:06:11

the we on a pile of that to the of course

1:06:13

down by joe a trade

1:06:15

the joe yeah never forget the job and

1:06:18

one of the things that things might are you is it you

1:06:20

know people say oh but there's a recession

1:06:22

coming which we could debate whether they're

1:06:24

actually is one but

1:06:26

i would almost

1:06:27

these stocks are already price for recession

1:06:30

oh yeah i mean if you assume

1:06:32

we go back to say two thousand and

1:06:35

eighteen two thousand and nineteen sort of

1:06:37

returns in terms of a ah

1:06:40

your unit built for a builder

1:06:42

and you assume marches compress back

1:06:44

to where they were in two thousand eighty ninety

1:06:46

i mean i think you're buying daughter at like six

1:06:49

times earnings and that you have an eighteen nineteen

1:06:51

it was like a forty percent return on capital

1:06:53

business still growing organically

1:06:56

like this is the dominant as as me while they

1:06:58

have executed a number of mergers that

1:07:01

have synergies in the the overall

1:07:03

a margins as it should increase despite

1:07:05

the take out to put have club ca structures

1:07:07

whatnot south know i think this is

1:07:09

a very very high quality does this that

1:07:12

i should be valued ,

1:07:14

a high quality bachelor five

1:07:16

fifteen twenty com so everything

1:07:18

earnings will be at the mid cycle you know and

1:07:20

i think is ironic a sorry to interrupt

1:07:22

their head can be but i want a thing is ironic

1:07:24

is that in the two thousand and five

1:07:27

six run up many

1:07:29

of these was three models didn't even the have

1:07:31

the ability to put in negative price ah

1:07:34

home appreciation on a nationwide level

1:07:36

because they'd never said and

1:07:39

, we've got

1:07:39

from believing

1:07:40

the houses never go down on a nation

1:07:43

wide basis to believing that every single

1:07:45

decline looks like two thousand and

1:07:47

seven eight

1:07:49

right in i just don't think that's accurate

1:07:52

if you look historically before two

1:07:54

thousand seven day you'd have regions that

1:07:56

had a bad run in it's

1:07:59

the

1:07:59

that again this cycle you are you have a massive

1:08:02

population move from a city suburbs

1:08:05

that particular from by the city

1:08:07

states to our florida and

1:08:10

ah you know act and

1:08:12

ethical be no one left in new york in five

1:08:14

years rate we're going on

1:08:17

and so you mean even the builders

1:08:19

a started a talk about those you know they're like oh like northeast

1:08:21

sucks for us california sox were caught

1:08:23

west coast the in a point of

1:08:25

this day and and i heard

1:08:28

in florida is in waco texas

1:08:30

in tennessee and georgia the

1:08:32

you having a giant a population

1:08:35

move and i it's really supporting

1:08:37

these regions and then on an eye

1:08:40

on a macro level there's also the whole thing about

1:08:42

the millennials

1:08:43

everyone thinks the boomers are so important and

1:08:45

they don't look at their the boomers are important most

1:08:47

financial markets because in terms of assets

1:08:50

the on on the most assets but when you look at the

1:08:52

actual size of the different color hearts

1:08:54

that there's nobody bigger than the millennials

1:08:56

and they've been sitting in their base parents' basement

1:08:59

the past you know ten twenty years or

1:09:01

ten years at least i just shellshocked

1:09:03

from the the two thousand and eight crash

1:09:06

not willing to buy a home and and to me

1:09:08

it was like they're going on starting

1:09:10

make families and they're going to do every other generation

1:09:12

does

1:09:14

yeah i think are the millennials

1:09:16

canada's push during off like ten years

1:09:18

on and family formation you notice the

1:09:20

widow the kind of lazy i guess know

1:09:22

you said not me i

1:09:26

think of a borderline malaria i don't hear an elder

1:09:28

millennium

1:09:29

are your i think you're an exit exam you'll

1:09:31

they call them something about star wars

1:09:33

and i honestly there

1:09:35

is there is something is something or an elder

1:09:37

millennial and death i just like to

1:09:39

remind people that everyone thinks the millennials

1:09:42

are a certain way but if you think back to

1:09:44

the hippies the hippies the the nineteen

1:09:46

sixties eventually turned into the yuppies a

1:09:50

man and everyone forgets that so

1:09:52

i don't think the millennials hard

1:09:55

the yes there are elements that are different

1:09:57

but in terms of they are going to do it all

1:09:59

do and and they're gonna go make how's

1:10:02

it making family formation yes

1:10:04

maybe the have less maybe they won't

1:10:06

do it is as much maybe the have less

1:10:08

kids but the things that they're not can do it

1:10:10

at all assists daves why i agree i think

1:10:12

there's a big huge like in

1:10:14

the python kind of a lump

1:10:16

coming through that we're going to have to digest

1:10:19

and

1:10:19

in i i do see the man continuing

1:10:21

and i'm just shocked at everyone else is so

1:10:24

bearish and just thinks that a if

1:10:26

if you think that are we doing

1:10:29

more than a million units over single family

1:10:31

a year was com where i think we are just

1:10:33

as we get back to try my new york's

1:10:35

ignore the five million that we have catch up plus

1:10:38

at a million or two you need for migration

1:10:41

it also ignores you know the fact that a budget homes

1:10:44

are suddenly dewey air bnb in iraq for

1:10:46

out of the supply for rental stock repeated

1:10:49

just assume we go back to train lines that kind of gives

1:10:51

that buffer from other two points on

1:10:54

your had a million millions you homes a year

1:10:56

i mean i think dollars for a source of come on at our stock

1:10:58

for years and in , ethical

1:11:00

yeah pacific is also as and you know i've

1:11:03

got a record and said you know i think jos

1:11:05

come on and i stock also and so neither

1:11:07

think these are are know really interesting

1:11:10

opportunities and opportunities

1:11:12

, has ptsd because

1:11:14

i you attend your when over three i

1:11:16

kissed or three for a few weeks and you

1:11:18

look what's happening macro or

1:11:22

euro dollar you go to twenty three his verse twenty

1:11:24

twos com inverted end of

1:11:26

the cannabis is telling cheap how it's time

1:11:28

to pivot you look at commodities me zinc

1:11:31

lad ah nicole

1:11:34

hoppers the bag while the ball rolled over

1:11:36

ah shipping rates

1:11:38

from asia have rolled over all it's happened

1:11:40

last three months mean everything's rolling

1:11:42

over and will be getting a recession a recession what is

1:11:45

coming back to train line of people figure out

1:11:47

of the bottlenecks this stuff it's almost been in

1:11:49

the last three weeks that that is really

1:11:51

as as pivoted i think we had peak

1:11:53

hawkishness at least in terms of relatives

1:11:55

expectations

1:11:57

oh yeah he did really well

1:11:59

the a fat either and debris as

1:12:02

a figure in a world where jay

1:12:04

power has some breathing space now

1:12:06

to say we're doing seventy five in july

1:12:08

that's the thing a wait and see and see how it all

1:12:10

pans out and and when he says

1:12:13

were taken to wait and see i think the market

1:12:15

those absolutely insane i i can't

1:12:17

believe you about bearishness that exists in this market

1:12:19

are all sentiment readers are

1:12:21

in a readings are or aren't extremes

1:12:24

are you have cast the sidelines extreme

1:12:27

i talked my friend that he went on the stocks anymore

1:12:29

when i have some friends of unhedged for them to be plotted

1:12:32

they're accountable they just knew him i think about

1:12:34

it and i'm

1:12:36

you know that that's usually me we so

1:12:38

precondition to have like a march twenty twenty

1:12:41

the bottom edges roars the

1:12:43

people forget that in bear markets bottoms

1:12:45

are you know trading bottoms get formed by

1:12:48

just see jack shit and hatred and

1:12:50

annoyance and you'll have is it a

1:12:52

cataclysmic crash with the vix

1:12:55

at your eighty

1:12:56

it just kind of like subs going down one day own

1:12:58

that are going up in a way to chase it i

1:13:00

completely agree and the other thing is it will

1:13:02

think that it's stocks either go down thirty

1:13:05

percent in the air or up forty percent

1:13:07

a year they forget it a lot of times

1:13:09

what a year looks like is down twenty

1:13:11

year down eighteen backup three

1:13:14

down ten to finish happy

1:13:16

and that's much more than people think

1:13:19

and the opportunities are actually are

1:13:21

within the market more so than than

1:13:23

just owning the mark and

1:13:25

i

1:13:26

the

1:13:28

the huge opportunities if you could pick the right

1:13:30

sector

1:13:31

right now i was images as that when

1:13:33

you're a ponzi scheme if it goes down

1:13:35

here the caught the capital goes up and

1:13:37

so it's reflected the way down because it's

1:13:40

silly to raise capital we own a country

1:13:42

that's very profitable with massive cash flow

1:13:44

and alibi back and place with the stock price

1:13:46

goes down issues more creative

1:13:48

for them to continue running a business

1:13:50

and buying in the shares and it's a reflexive

1:13:52

on the way back up a you know when

1:13:54

when the turned us com and yeah most the

1:13:56

on companies with aggressive buybacks

1:13:59

and lotta cash flow that trade at like two

1:14:01

or three times next use cash flow it's really

1:14:03

is click crazy out she blah these things are

1:14:06

as a great point now okay let's get on that

1:14:08

subject which is we're going to talk energy

1:14:11

and let's start with uranium

1:14:13

and i wanted to i want to talk about uranium

1:14:16

and i wanted

1:14:17

purpose we have

1:14:20

not asked you when we

1:14:22

been talking off air

1:14:23

about how the enrichment works

1:14:26

and the whole process so that we could do here

1:14:29

so that everyone else learn said the exact same time

1:14:32

i am a little bit of a new bill when

1:14:34

it comes to understanding the dynamics

1:14:36

of it and a lotta times you start

1:14:38

telling me oh no it's enrichment or if

1:14:41

this this and this as specifically when

1:14:43

we had the situation where biden now

1:14:45

said they organ a to

1:14:47

increase the amount of uranium

1:14:50

they bought it had to do with the type

1:14:52

and what that meant and i just wanna

1:14:54

go through this and and and explained to me like

1:14:56

i'm like i'm ten years old learning

1:14:59

about uranium for the first time this

1:15:01

whole idea of different types and what

1:15:03

and how the enrichment works

1:15:05

okay we're going to go through

1:15:07

this ah i'm no expert myself

1:15:09

so i'm sure so in a in in the crowd

1:15:12

will laugh at me and without my flaws but

1:15:15

you basically take you three oh it out of the ground

1:15:17

and it's you and total

1:15:19

conversion facility and he's turned

1:15:21

into a hexafluoride the

1:15:24

get to their you enrich it and wanted

1:15:26

to read it can then be loaded

1:15:28

into rods fuel rods

1:15:30

are assemblies of have some type and

1:15:33

is multiple different types of nuclear power plants

1:15:35

the on the different grades different grades sort of assemblies

1:15:38

but you basically have that three step

1:15:40

process you go are you three a way to

1:15:42

conversion to enrichment to a

1:15:44

few assembly okay and this

1:15:46

and bottlenecks along the way there that are

1:15:49

suddenly important because

1:15:51

you it would try to take russia out of our uranium

1:15:54

industry which is the new prices i'm

1:15:56

like twenty years ago right as

1:15:58

and arm so they did a bottleneck

1:16:00

and conversion right now is a big bottleneck and conversion

1:16:03

is just not enough a capacity if

1:16:06

, use russia and we have a bottleneck

1:16:08

enrichment and the enrichment one i find

1:16:10

interesting because was happened

1:16:12

the last decade or so

1:16:15

is that they've been doing something called are

1:16:17

under feeding it's a big this like

1:16:19

if you have a orange

1:16:21

juice and he a big shoes press

1:16:24

you use that she's pricey take every

1:16:26

drop foreign jha the orange juice because

1:16:28

he is precedent set

1:16:30

suits weights in get

1:16:32

your ninety your ninety of the jews have an arms

1:16:35

a cast as as as are under feeling

1:16:37

now i look good overfeeding overfeeding is

1:16:40

if i try to use it myself with with those use

1:16:42

machines or twisted a bet they they get sixty

1:16:44

percent juice out from calais the as

1:16:46

had his to go at it because the big bucket

1:16:48

oranges and says easier to twisty twenty sixty

1:16:51

of that overfeeding and that in the net result is

1:16:53

we under feed they were getting

1:16:55

about twenty million up how the extra uranium

1:16:58

out of the enrichment process because you're

1:17:00

extracting all the reading through centrifuge

1:17:03

how can win or there's a lack of centrifuge

1:17:05

capacity because or stuck in russia that's

1:17:07

why a million pounds goes away

1:17:10

the you're not gonna take all the uranium out

1:17:12

about it is that the to feed and

1:17:14

is that because we don't have the ability

1:17:16

to do that or taste longer time

1:17:19

why why why are we portal

1:17:21

the

1:17:22

the widow the capacity of centrifuges

1:17:25

for the enrichment process so what we're doing is

1:17:27

were purposely saying we're shortage

1:17:29

of capacity rolling in to get sixty percent out

1:17:31

like like yarn she's example and not double

1:17:33

that number on uranium but well you

1:17:35

get some of it out because we don't have enough capacity

1:17:38

to process all of it so

1:17:40

we go right through really fast and

1:17:42

so the net result is that you go from twenty million

1:17:44

pounds of are under feeding which was

1:17:46

added to supply and suddenly you're

1:17:49

overfeeding ended is really no limit

1:17:51

to how much overfeeding you do but

1:17:53

he writes when he goes away but also

1:17:55

you know more goes away could be another ten or

1:17:57

twenty or thirty nice depends

1:17:59

on how bad the bottleneck is where you

1:18:01

could go from situation we have say one hundred

1:18:04

fifty million total supply of which twenty

1:18:06

is the under feeding and suddenly you

1:18:08

gotta one thirty a supply maybe going to win twenty

1:18:10

or when ten of supply the at his command

1:18:12

and the demand side of when eighty five is pretty static

1:18:15

because you never turn off a nuclear power plant the

1:18:17

old it does make the deficit far more

1:18:20

extreme and eventually

1:18:23

either you need more supply to make up for the deficit

1:18:25

be a higher price to instead

1:18:28

about the supply to come back online is

1:18:30

so you know this is a very long which of way of saying

1:18:32

that a bowl thesis i've had for

1:18:34

nine months to scout whole lot more bullish okay

1:18:37

choice when choice understand this it almost sounds reflexive

1:18:40

to me in that

1:18:41

is it a function of the taste longer

1:18:44

the do the under feeding or is it a function

1:18:46

that we don't have the capacity to under

1:18:49

we will have a capacity

1:18:51

because it's just not enough her in return capacity

1:18:53

in the west so i was he so

1:18:55

once you got okay so what's you took

1:18:57

over russia out of his we downey

1:19:00

jr you know enrich a certain amount

1:19:02

but to get to that we have to overfeed

1:19:05

under no overfeed which is kind

1:19:07

of seems back counter intuitive to be buried overfeed

1:19:10

to get it done more quickly the we essence

1:19:13

say we're not going to be as efficient because we need to

1:19:15

get it because we're kind of behind

1:19:17

see with this way let's say we have to choose

1:19:20

presses or get an idea i'm so that you sat

1:19:22

and where the produce presses breaks that's being

1:19:24

in a rush off line and their factories

1:19:26

has a copy wanted to go there and with

1:19:28

your bare hands targets and it's use out cause

1:19:30

we have in order to fill suddenly

1:19:32

you know a lot of have been a

1:19:34

box of thousand oranges half of them are still

1:19:36

getting ninety nine percent the happened again

1:19:38

sixty presents ah ok

1:19:40

and now okay in that in that's

1:19:43

with the enrichment taken

1:19:45

out so how do you think this plays out because

1:19:48

now was and we see biden waking up

1:19:50

to the idea that this is actually a strategic

1:19:53

then are you

1:19:54

they are trying to deal with it when

1:19:57

he talked to us about that policy change

1:20:00

how you think that plays out in the coming

1:20:03

the border is years and what that means for

1:20:05

the rainy market

1:20:07

oh i mean i think over with her realize

1:20:09

that in america needs a uranium

1:20:11

in order run the nuclear powerplants we have

1:20:13

which are a pretty big component of our total atrocity

1:20:16

here the biden had a panic

1:20:18

or a panic easy by a million

1:20:20

pounds of you three oh wait for stockpile

1:20:23

given much of a stockpile really makes a

1:20:26

one hundred eighty five million pounds a year

1:20:28

a global they have a good the

1:20:30

start of a bigger are stockpile

1:20:33

of they intend to build it is so it's just

1:20:35

like having another strike fiscal

1:20:37

uranium trust much away on physical supply

1:20:40

and i assume once this million pound tenders

1:20:42

dunno do another one there's it's it's

1:20:44

it's it's another mouth to feed from an unlimited

1:20:47

a uranium stock or global inventory

1:20:50

and one day they'll finally get

1:20:52

that last pound out the rak with a warehouse the

1:20:54

prices go up as out i've

1:20:56

stayed longer and

1:20:58

or but adding on his pullback it's kind of funny

1:21:00

actually the rules pixie a loner

1:21:03

this a spot the spot for school uranium

1:21:05

trusts and australia i just can't

1:21:07

the nav right now has really binary pounds

1:21:09

and everyone's fixating on it the

1:21:11

com ignoring that that is one piece of a much

1:21:13

bigger ecosystem of uranium and i

1:21:16

think it in the and we had a lot of a wise

1:21:18

guy hedge funds that bought into this they ah

1:21:20

they they they they photos with squeeze like game stop

1:21:23

and i your they forgot that i took

1:21:25

a year before games i've really got going the

1:21:28

i'm reading is a similar situation if

1:21:30

you were coming up bored of it started sally went

1:21:32

to discount a nap it brought more sally

1:21:35

guys were down on the quarter guys got redemptions

1:21:37

guys wanted to go to some other shiny

1:21:39

bag and use her was selling ad

1:21:41

in australia defense an ad which you usually

1:21:44

as an opportunity i think i

1:21:46

think people need to step back and look at the bigger picture

1:21:48

you know the first time i came on you showed talk about

1:21:50

uranium it was at thirty one that

1:21:52

would nine months ago in here we are fifty one

1:21:55

answer that's a

1:21:57

two thirds or appreciation i

1:21:59

the minds and in i was all my trades

1:22:02

work that way as way as as

1:22:05

as he still like this but is your number one play

1:22:07

easing say away from the minors

1:22:09

that we stay away from the minors or

1:22:11

die ileal ios by i was some

1:22:14

of the uk version i yellowcake

1:22:16

island us , has adam

1:22:18

problem which is done poorly for

1:22:20

me but i'm

1:22:22

neither guess but the way to play this isis

1:22:25

play low risk way to get exposure

1:22:27

to a trend that i hate the minors only

1:22:29

that every industry retail

1:22:31

my by the miners are graded never time the i by

1:22:33

the physical i i prefer it gets i

1:22:35

pretty good of foresight on what the physical

1:22:37

do is to supply and demand and that's the easy

1:22:39

protect it is really a question

1:22:41

with all these commodities

1:22:44

get a deficit you know the prices go up his

1:22:46

question when and i'm

1:22:49

your it when it comes to investing allow the best

1:22:51

investments the ones where the market once

1:22:53

a certain see on when and what

1:22:55

in the next three months because i was trying to do

1:22:58

hit a quarterly number and if you will be a little patient

1:23:00

usually get paid a price our

1:23:03

i like it or trade and i got a whole lot of spot

1:23:05

okay speaking of commodities that might

1:23:08

squeeze in the future else talk about oil

1:23:11

obviously got rinsed with the

1:23:13

correction of the last i guess those

1:23:16

on our or as on vacation i missed

1:23:18

it a big down move

1:23:20

the think that we cleaned out the access

1:23:23

speculators and net zero energy

1:23:25

he's ready to march back of a continuous march higher

1:23:28

the i really do you think so i think we'll

1:23:30

be able to traitors comes out a few hours i think

1:23:32

you can see pretty sizable

1:23:34

building shorts on you know

1:23:36

look know look ah at alec looking

1:23:38

at a divergences in relative strength

1:23:40

and markets bus in a big sell off as

1:23:42

could tell you who's the strong guy we're

1:23:44

gonna sell off they sell everything and oftentimes

1:23:47

guy sell the winters to fund the losers

1:23:49

or you know they get re redeemed or liquid

1:23:51

a they are still everything and you

1:23:53

to look at what copper zinc lead

1:23:55

a you'll all these industrial commodities

1:23:57

that are really tied to gdp to look what they've done

1:24:00

that two months they look at oil

1:24:02

yet pull back a little from the eyes really

1:24:04

hasn't pulled back it is making

1:24:06

this big type and and we're drawing down

1:24:08

a few million barrels a day every day ah

1:24:11

you know that and cause the str and

1:24:14

china's reopening and me we're drawing down

1:24:16

when china was shot india's

1:24:18

accelerating i think i'd it's

1:24:20

it's it's gonna be very tight this fall

1:24:23

and i think it's

1:24:25

gonna explode are made of the view

1:24:27

that oil glut surprise

1:24:30

people in a stunning way you know that we got

1:24:32

a couple hundred and it's good to the next lehman moments

1:24:35

i feel about the lehman moment two thousand and

1:24:37

eight was that know and do with a side you look to the

1:24:39

box and you go you know as my car

1:24:41

party gonna pay me is is casco saddle

1:24:43

what's happening who's next what's happening

1:24:46

i think a because no would do old

1:24:48

happened it was terrifying and

1:24:51

with oil starts you know marching

1:24:53

five bucks a day it's equally terrified

1:24:55

because you are at five hundred oil you know walmart's

1:24:58

gonna do like a negative thirty com and

1:25:00

you know seriously i

1:25:03

know price oil

1:25:05

mostly are you know impacts

1:25:07

the middle class guys sorry guys going to walmart

1:25:10

or that really don't have much disposable

1:25:12

income and when the most walmart's the world

1:25:14

start having huge negative cops think what everything

1:25:17

else does i i i keep saying

1:25:19

that a oil is going to kill every a cusip

1:25:21

and i really do believe that and you

1:25:23

know it's it's kind of one of those as back to like the

1:25:25

uranium thing it seems almost

1:25:28

preordained it's just a question of when a

1:25:30

lot things in investing are actually

1:25:33

pretty obvious it's just a question of when

1:25:35

a game a tiny off by few months

1:25:37

can you be very expensive so

1:25:40

are utterly who fucks with timing or up with these trades

1:25:42

on islam ride and know it

1:25:45

just seems like of you have a couple

1:25:47

million barrel deficit every day any keep

1:25:49

drawing down global inventory eventually

1:25:52

it got some is a break eric

1:25:54

weddle break is is the price the upside

1:25:56

that he was a lot of are structured finance

1:25:58

or or

1:25:59

the oil to the upside and i

1:26:02

say it comes very very reflective

1:26:04

as much as a gamma squeeze but you

1:26:06

know yet hedge books that blow up and you've all the

1:26:08

source stuff that at a higher oil price

1:26:11

said lead you'll get margin calls which is lisa

1:26:13

at or higher oil prices went up

1:26:16

when the others interject there is everyone's

1:26:18

talking about this over one hundred twelve is so

1:26:20

high and so high he

1:26:22

, one hundred and forty one

1:26:24

was that oh wait

1:26:27

yeah we're forty over a didn't like him and

1:26:29

and then when you discount that today's dollars

1:26:31

using you know cpr i did the math it's

1:26:34

roughly two hundred dollars so it's

1:26:36

not like this is that higher price

1:26:39

we're really

1:26:40

everyone freaked out about it

1:26:42

the economy's been here before it this

1:26:44

isn't that unusual and i think when

1:26:46

you discounted into that you know today's dollars

1:26:49

i think that this was the privilege of from

1:26:51

two thousand and ten to two thousand and fifteen it

1:26:53

varied between one hundred and honor system

1:26:56

right is don't get what people are

1:26:58

riki motorboat in terms of the

1:27:00

price all yes it's hurting yes is causing

1:27:02

people the you know spend a little more

1:27:04

but as dot the into the world like everyone

1:27:06

thinks it is and now his ass they

1:27:08

speak to us and canada arrests

1:27:10

in great shape when it comes to this in

1:27:12

in of the government's killer the way unless the

1:27:14

middle pump a little bit more it's gonna be even better

1:27:18

yeah i agree i think that the difference

1:27:20

though is that the last time oil was at one

1:27:22

forty five dollars seventy five

1:27:24

not as i was at well suited a or something

1:27:27

and so it's not so much america that

1:27:29

gonna be a break it's gonna

1:27:31

be the countries that depends on

1:27:33

oil like japan or turkey with

1:27:36

these countries are literally guess gonna

1:27:38

be murdered by oil and so

1:27:40

i think that's what's gonna happen and with powell

1:27:43

raising rates and raising the dollar he's

1:27:45

just gonna be he sickly you know bankrupt

1:27:48

the periphery and he had for a freeze now japan

1:27:50

and europe needs

1:27:53

me that if it coming japan's literally

1:27:55

having emerging markets crisis a as

1:27:57

as you her up a hub facility

1:27:59

review except the the having a d m crisis

1:28:03

your way but he did it did they

1:28:05

iam this moved into the dm i

1:28:07

completely agree okay so out of from

1:28:09

this perspective is it again the same thing

1:28:11

is on their futures ligo you still love

1:28:13

with the farted features or anything else that you

1:28:16

this in wise to take

1:28:18

advantage of this can be squeezed

1:28:20

hi on the future's i'll own

1:28:22

futures features call options teacher

1:28:25

spreads the

1:28:27

adding more to my services name cisco's

1:28:29

they've been actually murdered i'm in full ours is down

1:28:31

from sixty to forty one and

1:28:33

we get a half that symbol the l

1:28:36

yeah are we have weatherford down

1:28:38

from need a thirty five to twenty you

1:28:40

make a week and a half hour i don't know what's happening

1:28:43

but a it almost feels like some guy

1:28:45

blew up or got liquidated or something because

1:28:48

in the and you know something like of hilarious it

1:28:50

it , it has a backlog and price

1:28:52

of oil goes up and down to the backlog doesn't

1:28:54

change and so

1:28:57

in a and but honestly know we're talking

1:28:59

right now and to be see i

1:29:02

that one that way to be necessary very profitable

1:29:04

price for offer drilling

1:29:06

and so i don't i just don't speaker

1:29:09

it's rep what's happening this actress have added

1:29:11

some there and then up no

1:29:13

i'm not but i do think that is

1:29:15

fall when jay power lands on

1:29:18

the right side oil discuss screaming number

1:29:20

dot performed all the other industrial commodities

1:29:23

and so was you steps off the gas

1:29:25

on on the hawkishness i see screams

1:29:27

our control and i have a bunch of

1:29:29

these december of two hundred by two

1:29:31

fifty by three hundred butterflies on

1:29:33

it's own i know that's you trading

1:29:35

us yeah

1:29:38

i'm the only god i forgot mostly opened

1:29:40

it uses a hundred cause also the

1:29:42

to order to the hundred cause of twenty five i've

1:29:45

actually get a proud of myself i can a kids

1:29:47

the whole ball surface there is

1:29:50

that what somebody to say but

1:29:52

us know these butters be like they're like

1:29:54

they're at twenty cents right now and

1:29:56

so gets a to ten i've worked

1:29:58

to time you get paid

1:29:59

the

1:30:01

that a pity hunt your money which

1:30:03

is a damn good return and

1:30:05

you know it the market pricing this like

1:30:07

the zero chance like i have a better

1:30:09

likelihood of getting hit by an asteroid

1:30:11

of my office and i kinda

1:30:14

think it's more like a fifty fifty shot though

1:30:16

it a to wanna go crazy buying a premium

1:30:19

by at what point a lot of these super furry

1:30:21

animals more worried that we blood

1:30:23

the top strike at three hundred that i am that

1:30:26

of the hat which shows you were my

1:30:28

polish level as i can kind of

1:30:30

feel semifinalist as at eleven

1:30:32

now but

1:30:35

i don't either but news they the out of

1:30:37

the structures everywhere and

1:30:39

ah at it's like the fact that

1:30:42

the oil ball you know is

1:30:44

super low because of the shape of the

1:30:47

though the future's curve you know it's very it's very

1:30:49

aided so even just going out the december

1:30:51

the

1:30:53

you know it ended at the the curve drops down quite

1:30:55

a bit and it's the net result is that you're buying

1:30:57

a call options that are no

1:31:00

had a flattish with a different price

1:31:02

for their being price very very cheaply

1:31:04

and especially as you go further out in the curb implied

1:31:07

volatility collapses you know it in the teens

1:31:09

which seems crazy for a product with the realize

1:31:11

volatility between thirty and sixty that

1:31:14

you you price out on long dated paper

1:31:16

especially cause you know in your past say two thousand

1:31:19

noteworthy for it though that the

1:31:21

future's strippers in the low seventies

1:31:23

and i don't think he could produce oil right

1:31:25

now the marginal barrel if you wanna

1:31:27

hundred million barrels of seventy to see that

1:31:29

that that's a blow to break even

1:31:32

and these guys need to have a casa

1:31:35

capital that they have to eat out fake

1:31:37

of and they all sat on sat return on their money their

1:31:39

made ever made ever to speak the rug as back

1:31:41

a twenty fifteen where he hopes

1:31:43

of oil guy goes to wall street and says oh

1:31:45

look at my hundred i are ours at thirty five

1:31:47

oil give me money and then you know they they

1:31:49

get our money at like fifty that's why

1:31:51

the of we're junk traits

1:31:54

that essays over it as a kid

1:31:56

scope the drill and proper wells

1:31:58

and your fudge the numbers i've known

1:32:00

figures it out is a yeah she has a fund

1:32:02

these things through are retained earnings and cash

1:32:04

flow the companies that are still laughed

1:32:07

i got some discipline the not doing that though

1:32:10

i used to see anyone producing

1:32:12

oil in are associated press oil dropping

1:32:14

outside of i got this are like fluker

1:32:17

flash crash he thing plus seventy

1:32:19

because you thought profit do with their at seventy

1:32:21

and so as a result you can basically by something below

1:32:23

the cost of production at sue below

1:32:25

implied ball and i think

1:32:27

you know if you were that four years you get your money

1:32:29

back or you make a ton of

1:32:31

money and i just love are trading

1:32:34

all loan that curve or that etti the curves

1:32:36

all screwed up and are add add one

1:32:38

with de leon in arma easy to sort

1:32:40

of guy that buys like us so and piano

1:32:43

but the a nose branch

1:32:45

of windows us out there with ya but these

1:32:47

are because the backwardation is a pretty aggressive

1:32:49

role yield which means if you go out the curb

1:32:51

and buy some of this a longer daily paper

1:32:54

ah you know you get it looks like you're

1:32:56

tweaks our the money but the role yield unpaid

1:32:58

hours three percent a month or four percent a month

1:33:00

he got six months you basically bind flat

1:33:03

price as that the whole of all curve

1:33:05

has into priced in this role

1:33:07

yield immediately their pricing in the royal

1:33:09

goes away in the current goes flat or

1:33:11

they're just more heinz and they did in order to how really

1:33:13

old works in the black cells and sell

1:33:16

you i think i'm a school that

1:33:18

market maker well

1:33:20

, he know copy that and four years we're all

1:33:22

gonna be using letter to

1:33:24

cars and will be no more need

1:33:26

for fossil fuels i

1:33:29

will be you the electric cars and porto rico the power

1:33:31

goes out the words

1:33:33

this him that you know and i'll let you go

1:33:35

because it was a middle the trading day but why do you tell

1:33:37

people about your product of our

1:33:40

so what you do where they can find more

1:33:42

about what you're talking about and all the

1:33:44

good stuff

1:33:45

hey great i get far me adventures

1:33:47

in capitalism our blog there

1:33:50

are right kind of regularly or

1:33:52

whenever i have mishaps throw down a paper

1:33:55

and , i publisher

1:33:57

event driven monitor court monitor

1:33:59

d i'm going to key d i'm dot com

1:34:02

and take a free trial offer a one month free trial

1:34:04

who track of a twentieth veterans strategies

1:34:06

mean both the names we've talked about we've

1:34:08

we've mentioned through a the monitor

1:34:10

actually flagged or through the monitor i also

1:34:12

been writing a couple pages of macro

1:34:14

commentary each week so if he took a trial

1:34:17

year ago the give us another email

1:34:19

address and try it again but he

1:34:22

won't be the first or last strike we've

1:34:28

improved the pride quite dramatically with hired

1:34:30

as more people and were looking

1:34:32

to hire some where people are going forward and just

1:34:34

keep making the product better and eludes

1:34:37

taken the feedback gone from readers that they want to

1:34:39

see more macro the was teamwork actionable

1:34:41

stop and we have some more improvements on

1:34:43

the way and to follow been doing these happy

1:34:45

hours at a pretty regular basis i

1:34:47

i in about one friday a month

1:34:50

where you can call it a nascar

1:34:52

etti expert real what's happening with

1:34:54

if they incur in , we're carson

1:34:56

block on a thorough that standing with

1:34:58

will look at have our next guess sometime soon sometime

1:35:00

you know he you know the full package and

1:35:03

yet it he didn't mention was the discord server who

1:35:05

have many people tell me that they find up to be

1:35:07

one of the best communities out there

1:35:09

in terms of when they have something they want to know about

1:35:12

in that is a throughout the earn your your

1:35:14

group is more than happy to help indo

1:35:16

a bunch inaudible people on yeah

1:35:19

we have a really great discord grew by mostly

1:35:21

headphone guys and the a post whatever

1:35:23

he was and is always someone who knows the story

1:35:25

better and you'll have done the work

1:35:27

and is is really amazing a cat's all