0:06

Welcome

0:07

to the MedPhaver Show. where the focus is

0:09

on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join

0:11

us as we discuss the craft of investing and

0:13

uncover new and profitable ideas, all

0:15

to help you grow wealthier and wiser, better

0:17

investing starts here.

0:19

Matt Faber is the cofounder and chief investment officer

0:22

at Cambrey Investment Management. Due to industry regulations,

0:24

he will not discuss any of Cambrey's

0:25

funds on this podcast. opinions expressed

0:28

by podcast participants are solely their own opinions

0:30

and do not reflect the opinion of Camry Investment Management

0:32

or its affiliates.

0:32

For more information, visit kamere at investment

0:39

Today's

0:39

episode is sponsored by AcreTrader.

0:42

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1:00

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aker trader dot com forward slash

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men. What

1:51

is up everybody? We got an around the world

1:53

amazing show for you today. got none other

1:55

than the legendary adventure capitalists

1:57

investment biker himself, Jim Rogers,

1:59

co founder of Quantum Fund and

2:02

Sorrow's Fund Management and creator of the

2:04

Rogers International Commodities Index.

2:06

Today's episode Jim gives us a take on the

2:08

global markets today. We touch on inflation,

2:11

central banks, and why he believes the next

2:13

recession will be the worst in

2:15

his lifetime. Jim also shares

2:17

what countries he's bullish on and some of the

2:19

names that may make you a little queasy.

2:21

Please enjoy this episode with Jim Rogers.

2:26

Jim, welcome to show. I'm

2:28

delighted to be your mayor and let

2:31

the audience know where do we find you.

2:34

I am in Singapore at the

2:36

moment where where I where I live because

2:38

I want my children to know Asia

2:40

and to speak Chinese and That's

2:43

hard to do in the US. Well,

2:45

I was listening to one of your podcasts earlier

2:47

today. Long time, podcast

2:49

listeners know I'm I'm a beer

2:51

drinker. And I to

2:53

memorize my first Chinese phrase

2:55

from you, which was cold beer. And

2:58

I've already forgotten it. It was III memorized

3:01

cheers and cold beer. And I was gonna say at

3:03

the beginning. I was gonna say, gym, cheers, cold

3:05

beer to you because it's day nighttime here. Morning

3:08

there. And I've already I've already forgotten it.

3:10

If you can say cheers and cold beer,

3:12

you're ahead of this payment, you can go far

3:14

in life. very far in life

3:16

everywhere in the world. We're gonna

3:18

talk about a lot today. Go around the world,

3:21

but I think you may have the

3:23

record for the only podcast guest

3:26

who's ever been held hostage in the Congo.

3:28

Is that true? Is that what I said? You're

3:30

gonna have the title for that? I

3:32

was held hostage in the for

3:34

eight days as a matter of fact. So you're

3:36

I don't know. And if if any of your other

3:38

guests were held passage in the on

3:41

Colombia. I didn't see any of them if they

3:43

were. But, no, it was the

3:46

whole thing was very interesting. If you

3:48

travel around the world, you're bound to have interesting

3:50

experiences. And the funny thing,

3:52

as long as you end up and

3:54

it's more of a long inconvenience they

3:56

often end up being great stories. You

3:58

know, as long as you don't get a

3:59

an arm chopped off or you survived

4:02

to tell to tell, most of the travel

4:04

experiences ones that are often terrible

4:06

are

4:06

some of the most memorable, which is kind of a weird,

4:09

you know, way to think about, you know, you don't plan

4:11

for the inconvenient experiences,

4:13

but those often ends up being ones that are burned

4:15

into your brain. Well,

4:17

I I have learned about lives.

4:19

You learn more from problems and you go learn

4:22

from successes. Successes can

4:24

be dangerous. Then you think you're smart.

4:26

And you think you know what you're doing.

4:28

When you have problems or you have

4:30

to learn. You might like

4:32

a quote, and I'm gonna

4:34

forget the attribution already. We'll add it to

4:36

Show Note Lakes listeners, but our friend

4:38

Mark Youssef was using, and we said every trade

4:40

makes you richer or wiser, but never

4:42

both. And I thought that was such a

4:45

wonderful way to think about making

4:47

mistakes in markets because so many people

4:49

just wanna talk about the winners. We've all

4:51

had our share of losers. We've been at it

4:53

long enough. Oh, no. I have

4:55

certainly learned that. The one thing I

4:57

have learned Well, I don't

4:59

do it anymore with you. If I said,

5:01

why don't you buy X? And

5:03

if somebody went in about X,

5:05

then they went up. They would tell all their

5:07

friends how smart they are and how wonderful

5:09

they are and why they bought it.

5:12

But if it went down, they

5:14

would say that Jim Rogers is a

5:16

fool. You know, he taught me to buy

5:18

this thing, and I bought it because of him

5:20

and it went down. But if it goes

5:22

up, they tell everybody how smart

5:24

they are. It feels like part of becoming

5:26

a good investor, at least one that

5:28

survives is you know, learning

5:30

to take those losses and being okay

5:32

with it and being able to just walk away and

5:34

move on to the next trade and kinda you

5:37

know, we call it the Eli manning effect where

5:39

you just bounce off and you keep

5:41

moving. Let's talk about the world today. You've

5:43

been talking about a few trends that seem

5:45

to be Coming to

5:47

a head here. I'm a longtime listener,

5:50

read all your books, found out tonight that

5:52

even my wife has read your book, or at

5:54

least one hundred books. Excuse me. And she's

5:56

a PhD in philosophy. So

5:58

kudos to you, Jim. But I figured

6:00

we'd start when we think about the macros going on in

6:02

the world today. it's kind of hard

6:04

not to start with

6:07

interest rates or just kind of

6:09

this really weird situation that

6:11

we're in a handful of

6:13

years ago where a

6:15

lot of interest rates around the world were negative,

6:17

which felt like a pretty odd time in

6:19

history and then walk forward

6:21

to today. And you were kind of predicted

6:23

a lot what's what's kinda happening. Take

6:26

take the mic from here. Well, also,

6:29

but I'll use the US, but there's

6:31

a big world out there. But the US is the

6:33

largest and most important

6:35

market. The US has had the

6:37

longest period in its

6:39

history without a big major

6:41

problem, economic problem. You

6:43

know, since two thousand nine, things have

6:45

been recently good in

6:47

the US. That's the longest in our history.

6:49

That does not mean it cannot go thirty

6:51

years, ma'am. But the facts are

6:53

this in the longest ever. So

6:56

It causes one to one. Now

6:58

I wonder a lot because

7:00

I see huge debts that

7:02

have piled up since two thousand nine.

7:04

Maybe we had a big problem in two thousand

7:07

and eight because of too much debt.

7:09

Since two thousand and nine, the debt has

7:11

skyrocketed. everywhere,

7:13

even China has a lot of debt now,

7:16

and China had no debt twenty five

7:18

or thirty years ago. when

7:20

everybody has been dead now,

7:22

especially us in the United

7:24

States. Unfortunately, I don't I

7:26

don't like saying that. So we've

7:28

always had bear markets. We've always

7:30

had recessions. We will

7:32

always have them despite what the

7:34

politicians in Washington tell you.

7:37

And then my view is the next time

7:39

we have one, it's going to

7:41

be the worst in my lifetime. Two

7:43

thousand eight was bad because of

7:45

death. We have the dead is so

7:47

much higher now that the next

7:49

recession has to be the worst in

7:51

my lifetime. I mean, it's simple looking

7:53

out to women and seeing what's going on in

7:55

the world. So my view is

7:57

that we are in a period, a dangerous

7:59

period. Interest rates

8:01

are going higher. Inflation is

8:03

going higher because they printed staggering

8:06

amounts of money. Everybody printed

8:08

staggering amounts of money. America

8:11

Japan everybody printed huge

8:13

amounts of money. So We have this big inflation

8:15

problem. It's not going to

8:17

go away without drastic action.

8:20

And as interest rates go higher,

8:22

gonna affect markets around the world, and

8:24

we're gonna have a very serious bear

8:26

market. You should be worried. The fact

8:28

that interest rates for the lowest they've been

8:30

in recorded history is

8:32

a dangerous sign to me. That's not a

8:35

good sign. They can only go

8:37

up. They have to go up if they're the

8:39

lowest they've ever been in the history of

8:41

the world. and they were artificial.

8:43

They were

8:43

absurd as

8:45

we're all finding out. But,

8:47

Nev, I would I was

8:49

around in the seventies interest

8:51

rates went to own treasury bills

8:53

went to twenty one percent

8:56

twenty one percent owned treasury

8:58

bills in nineteen eighty. So

9:00

when we have serious inflation problem,

9:02

it's hard to deal with, and

9:04

it takes drastic action, and

9:07

it hurts. I was joking with my father-in-law

9:09

the other day and kinda moaning

9:11

about mortgage rates currently. And

9:13

he's like, started laughing. He said,

9:15

I think my first mortgage was, like,

9:17

fifteen percent or something, you know, that

9:19

this, like, feels unfathomable to

9:21

probably people today, but very

9:23

real, you know, not too long ago for

9:25

many people. While we're here, let's stick and talk

9:27

to inflation. Talk about inflation because

9:29

it's a topic that an

9:32

entire generation of professional

9:34

investors really haven't had to deal with. You

9:36

know? Last, what is that? Four

9:38

decades almost or more

9:40

that people you know, it's been

9:42

declining inflation. How does that

9:44

mindset change, you know, for an asset

9:46

allocator, for an investor when you

9:48

have actually something

9:50

that's not two percent inflation.

9:53

Well, hit you in the phase

9:55

eventually. I mean, if you have a

9:57

butler who does your shopping, you may

9:59

never know until he

10:01

complains. But most of us who

10:03

go shopping or go to restaurants

10:06

or entertainment, education,

10:09

we all noticed that

10:11

prices are going higher and eventually

10:13

everybody notices. even

10:16

those who have butlers, notice

10:18

how high things are going. And

10:20

that causes problem.

10:22

People have to cut back their spending.

10:24

Employers have to to cut

10:26

back something. They cannot give

10:28

raises as much as people would

10:30

like. It's called recession. We've

10:32

had them for thousands of years.

10:34

We will continue to have them. Everybody

10:37

has had them, and they will continue to

10:39

have them. One of my favorite tweets

10:41

of the year was the American rapper's

10:43

snoop dogg and someone had written an article

10:46

saying that he has a professional cigar

10:49

roller for his marijuana blonds

10:51

or cigarettes. And they say, snoop

10:53

pays him fifty thousand dollars a year.

10:55

And then his only comment was, he says,

10:57

see, it's inflation. It

10:59

says, it's sour is going up against

11:01

inflation, but I think once it enters the common

11:03

lexicon, I feel like the

11:06

consensus at this point

11:08

is that Everyone believes

11:10

that it's coming back down and

11:12

quick, but the long history of

11:14

inflation is often such that

11:16

it tends to be a little sticky, you know, once

11:18

you have inflation pop up, very

11:20

rarely does it kind of pop up and come back down.

11:22

Would that would you say is that Was that your

11:24

experience? Is that your familiarity? Or how how

11:26

do I kinda well,

11:28

ma'am, did you know very well? Nothing goes

11:31

straight up or straight down there?

11:33

ups, downs, ups, and downs have

11:35

corrections along the way. That

11:38

happens with inflation too.

11:40

And yes, if the price of oil skyrockets

11:42

and then calms down for a while.

11:44

People

11:44

think inflation's coming

11:47

down. But they're usually temporary.

11:49

especially

11:50

when you have staggering amounts

11:52

of money printing and

11:54

it's compounded by war and war

11:56

makes it more difficult to plant

11:58

crops or harvest anything

12:01

when you have war. But the main

12:03

problem we had inflation before

12:05

your brain and

12:07

unless something is happening dramatic.

12:09

We're gonna continue to have

12:11

inflation because as the

12:13

economy slow down, worldwide,

12:17

Central banks will print more money.

12:19

The Japanese are already

12:21

printing staggering amounts

12:23

of money. and they have said

12:25

we will continue to print money. It's the

12:27

second largest economy in the world, a

12:29

third largest economy in the world. When

12:31

you have all these guys burning money

12:33

and Washington will too, don't

12:36

take it. If things start slowing

12:38

down, ma'am, the Federal Reserve is

12:40

gonna print more money. They're gonna loosen up

12:42

again. They don't care about you and

12:44

me. They care about their jobs.

12:46

And that's how they think they'll keep their

12:48

job. It's not good for

12:50

us, but they think it's good for

12:52

them. I have a proposal that I've

12:54

long floated First of all, it was the

12:56

beginning of it was actually a theory. I

12:58

said the Federal Reserve, I think, would just be better

13:00

off if they all

13:02

got together at each meeting got

13:04

some beers, they watched some TV, maybe football

13:07

or something, and then they just pegged

13:09

the Fed funds rate to the two year.

13:11

which is the market derived rate, and it often

13:13

is very close. But you can see in various

13:15

periods, including the last decade, where

13:18

the two year was much higher than the fed funds

13:20

rate. So you have these periods where, you

13:22

know, it's a it's a huge gap where it

13:24

doesn't feel like it necessarily needs to be.

13:26

Even today, it's still quite a bit lower.

13:28

We'll see if it catches up before

13:30

inflation comes down. I'm not optimistic.

13:32

Sorry. I have another proposal.

13:34

If I were the head of the Federal

13:36

Reserve, I would establish

13:38

the Federal Reserve and then resign.

13:41

You've had three central banks in

13:43

American history. The first two

13:45

disappeared for a variety of

13:47

reasons. The world many

13:49

times has not had central banks. The

13:51

world has survived without central

13:53

banks. In my view, usually,

13:55

is

13:56

God, make no mistakes and

13:58

they, you know, people think

13:59

they're smart. They're just

14:02

bureaucrats and academics. They're no

14:04

smarter than the market. And in my

14:06

experience, the market is

14:08

smarter than I am, and I presume

14:10

it's smarter than the central banks

14:12

too. So I'd get along without central

14:14

bankers. Okay. So

14:16

rates have come up pretty quick. Inflation

14:18

even faster. I think we

14:20

were over eight the last time. We'll see where comes

14:22

in and October. What's

14:24

the average investor to do? You know what? The

14:26

thing we said about sixty forty kind of coming into

14:29

it, and this is almost every allocation

14:31

portfolio is probably down twenty percent this year.

14:33

The thing that surprises a lot of

14:35

investors is that the biggest drawdown,

14:37

the biggest loss is actually quite a bit

14:39

more than that. It's north of fifty percent.

14:41

And I don't think we can find a country in the

14:43

world that hasn't had a at least a

14:45

fifty percent loss with with a sixty

14:47

forty portfolio in their own country.

14:49

So it's happened before. Where do

14:51

people hide out? What should they be thinking about? What should they

14:53

be doing in a world where stocks and bonds

14:55

are both getting hammered same

14:57

time. Well, first of all, there are

14:59

other investments besides stocks

15:01

involved. But my main answer to you

15:03

is, People should only invest in

15:05

what they themselves know a lot about.

15:07

Don't listen to other people.

15:09

Stay with what you know.

15:11

don't listen to hot tips. Everybody

15:14

wants a hot tip. Everybody

15:16

wants to be rich this week.

15:18

Including me, you know, I'd like to

15:20

be rich as we too, but

15:22

hot chips will ruin you. So

15:24

the main advice is stay with what

15:26

you know. And everybody

15:29

listening to this knows a lot about something,

15:31

whether it's cars, or fashion, or

15:33

sports, something, stay with

15:35

what you know. And when you see an

15:37

opportunity, then

15:38

you should invest. Now

15:39

people say that's boring. Be

15:42

boring. If you want to be rich,

15:44

be boring. Stay

15:45

with what you know and you will have great

15:47

opportunities. Maybe

15:49

you'll only have twenty investments in

15:51

your lifetime, but you'll be very

15:53

successful. Why is that so hard though? You know

15:55

what I mean? That sounds like pretty sane

15:57

and wise that it'd be hard to

15:59

argue with. But what I do think is it is just human

16:01

nature, laziness, envy,

16:03

preed fear. What do you think is the reason that that would be

16:05

so hard to comply with?

16:07

Well, many people won't be easy.

16:09

Well, I and they wanna quick

16:11

answers, including

16:13

me. We all want the easy way. We all

16:15

want the the quick answers.

16:17

And we all see the Internet

16:19

or we see the newspaper, the

16:21

TV, and everybody says,

16:23

I could have bought Apple.

16:25

This

16:25

is easy.

16:26

Anybody could have bought Apple. Well,

16:29

that's good to know. Wish

16:31

you had, but it

16:34

looks easy. This looks

16:36

like an easy way to make money. But

16:38

if you know, at least I know and I'm sure you

16:40

know good that this is not an easy way to

16:42

make money and it's very

16:44

hard and very difficult despite what you

16:46

see on the TV.

16:48

for quite a

16:49

while definitely became

16:51

associated with an area we like.

16:53

We talk a lot about on this podcast.

16:56

is the world in natural resources in

16:58

particular commodities, which

17:00

for the better part of this year is the only

17:02

thing on the long side that was really

17:05

going up and with the energy complex is probably still

17:07

the only thing going up. What's

17:09

that world look like you to you today?

17:11

Is that an area of

17:13

opportunity? Is it too

17:15

broad to really, you know,

17:17

discuss on one particular area? But

17:19

how does commodities look to you?

17:21

Well,

17:21

let's look at all assets, which

17:24

is what I have to do every day of my

17:26

life. We mow that bonds

17:28

are still in a bubble bonds

17:30

have never been never gotten that expensive in the

17:32

history of the world. So bonds are a bubble.

17:35

You know, property in

17:37

many places is a bubble if you go

17:39

to New Zealand or Korea or many

17:41

places in the U. S. Property

17:42

is absurdly expensive on

17:45

historic basis. Stocks

17:47

we have been talking about. Some

17:49

mini stuff got to be

17:52

crazies. Samsung goes up went

17:54

up every Apple went up every day, you know.

17:56

Some stocks were clearly a bubble. The only

17:59

thing that's not a

17:59

bubble, and I know of its

18:02

commodities. I mean, silver's

18:04

down.

18:04

sixty percent from its all

18:07

time. Sugar is down sixty percent

18:09

from its all time. Now

18:11

these are not global kind of

18:13

numbers. when you have assets that are down fifty,

18:15

sixty, seventy percent from their all

18:17

time high. So the only asset class

18:19

I know that's not a bubble

18:22

or hasn't been a bubble for commodities.

18:25

And everything that's happening

18:27

in the world is good for

18:29

many commodities. It

18:31

looks like we're going to have electric

18:33

vehicles. But electric

18:34

vehicles use four or

18:36

five times as much copper

18:38

as

18:38

a gasoline vehicle. So

18:40

and

18:40

nobody's been opening copper

18:43

mines and lead mines for a long

18:45

time. So it looks

18:46

to me like the fundamentals as well

18:49

as the prices. what commodities

18:51

might lead to opportunities. Howard Bauchner: How

18:53

do you think

18:53

about for most investors? Is it

18:55

the actual commodity exposure

18:58

itself? Is it commodity equities?

19:00

Is it both? Is it depend? How should

19:02

people really be thinking about them?

19:04

Well, there are many ways to invest in

19:06

commodities, agriculture, how many the best

19:08

ways to become a farm? buy land and become a

19:10

farmer. You get extremely rich.

19:12

But other than that, you can buy

19:15

shares. You can buy

19:18

futures. You can buy

19:20

indexes. There are many ways to invest

19:22

in commodities. Some of them simple

19:24

ways. Didn't say it was simple to make

19:26

money. I said there's simple revenues to

19:28

invest in committees, and

19:30

then go to it. But most

19:32

people are afraid of commodities.

19:34

Everybody has told them all their love, their

19:36

commodities are dangerous. Well,

19:38

yes, anything is dangerous if you don't

19:40

know what you're doing. But if you know a

19:42

lot about lead, you might

19:44

make

19:44

a whole lot of money. If you

19:47

figure out a way whether a stock or

19:49

a future or whatever

19:51

to

19:51

invest in commodities.

19:53

And commodities, by the way, are simpler

19:55

Nobody can no IBM

19:59

or Microsoft,

19:59

not even the chairman because there's

20:02

so many employees, etcetera, etcetera.

20:04

but

20:05

sugar is very simple. We

20:07

all know what sugar is. Everybody

20:10

watching this know what sugar is, so

20:12

that's a good start. And

20:14

if you can figure out the supply

20:16

and demand, I didn't say it was easy.

20:18

I just said it's easier than figure

20:21

out IBM. or

20:21

Microsoft or Apple or

20:24

something like that. The

20:25

one area that's a little bit of a

20:27

surprise, I mean, thus far, we are writing about this

20:29

a little bit. has been the

20:32

precious metals space. You mentioned silver

20:34

being down. That

20:36

hasn't quite started to see move

20:38

yet. What's your thesis? Is it part of the

20:40

heirs come out of the room due to

20:42

crypto? Is it a younger generation?

20:44

Less interested? Is it simply

20:46

the time just hasn't been right? What what

20:48

do you think about? What do you think about precious metals?

20:52

Well, with all this,

20:54

that gold did make an all

20:56

time high. few months ago, all time

20:58

high. So some precious metals

21:00

have done well. So it was

21:02

down. My experience is

21:05

that in declining markets, everything

21:07

goes

21:07

down for a while. Precious Metals

21:10

included. You go back to the

21:12

other agency that go went down

21:14

a lot. But then they

21:16

usually hit

21:16

bottom near among

21:19

the first things, they hit a bottom

21:21

will be the precious metals, and then

21:23

they people

21:24

the suddenly say,

21:25

oh, gosh, look at gold, look

21:27

at silver, and then they jump in, and then then

21:29

gold will go through the roof, and precious

21:31

metals will go to the

21:33

roof, especially in inflationary times. I

21:36

own precious metal. I have not been buying

21:38

them for a while.

21:40

But if they continue to go down,

21:42

I hope I'm smart enough to

21:44

buy precious metals and you say, is

21:47

it the generations or whatever, Now

21:49

throughout history,

21:51

people

21:51

know that when currencies and

21:54

governments fall into Distribute,

21:57

you better own some gold and

21:59

silver. I'm an old

22:01

peasant and all of us old

22:03

peasants know we need some

22:05

gold in the closet. we

22:07

need some silver under the

22:09

bed. because when things go bad, there's

22:11

nothing else, including cryptocurrencies,

22:14

which are going to save you. Yeah.

22:16

I mean,

22:16

one of the best things investors

22:18

can do, I'm referring mostly

22:20

to American investors, bit of all stripes,

22:22

is travel. And the inflation

22:25

topic is one that I think is hard

22:27

to really explain to

22:29

people who haven't been through it or

22:31

lived through it. And I talked to my friends

22:33

in Peru, or

22:35

Argentina or various places

22:37

that experienced it. And you can see the a,

22:39

the very real generational

22:42

trauma it can wreak havoc on. But, yeah, some I

22:44

have some humorous stories too. I remember being down

22:46

in point of areas and seeing all these

22:48

just gorgeous yachts. And I said,

22:50

oh my god, these are more than you would see in Miami or in

22:53

Los Angeles. And I said, well,

22:55

Moe, when you have when

22:57

you have fifty percent inflation,

22:59

it's better to own something than to own

23:02

nothing, meaning like, you know, cash that's

23:04

gonna depreciate. And so even

23:06

if it's a boat, which is a huge

23:08

money pit, it's better than nothing. And that that that's a huge imprint

23:10

on me. This is probably fifteen years

23:12

ago. Well, even if they

23:13

read about it, you're you're right.

23:16

There's nothing quite like experience yet

23:18

to make it deep in

23:20

your

23:20

brain. Even

23:22

reading about it is not

23:25

this significant is experiencing it.

23:27

And most, as

23:29

you rightly point out, most

23:31

Americans in the last thirty, forty years

23:33

don't know what inflation is.

23:35

We're gonna skip

23:35

around little bit. We talk a lot

23:38

about the global investing

23:41

perspective on And

23:43

there has been no

23:46

harder

23:47

harder fight

23:49

than I've had in the past ten

23:51

years. than talking

23:53

to US investors about the

23:55

need to think globally. And the

23:57

more US stocks went up relative to the rest

23:59

of the world the more friction

24:02

I received on that probably culminating

24:04

in in maybe January. What

24:06

does the rest of the world look like as

24:08

far as, you know, that equity

24:10

opportunity set? Are you starting to see

24:12

anything particularly of interest

24:14

or concern as we move outside

24:17

the US? Well, first of all, I would

24:19

like to endorse what you just

24:21

said. There are many

24:23

countries. There are over two hundred countries in

24:25

the world. So limiting yourself

24:27

to one country seems to

24:29

me not a

24:30

wise thing to do, but there

24:32

are many, many opportunities out there

24:34

in the world. once upon a

24:37

time General Motors was the largest

24:39

company in the world. Then it went

24:41

bankrupt. But Toyota, which was

24:43

not a US company, became

24:45

the largest car company in the world, and there were many, many

24:47

opportunities investing in

24:49

Japan. But that is true of any

24:51

country in the world right now, even

24:53

the obscure ones. If

24:55

you can

24:55

find the right management with the

24:58

right products, you can make a

25:00

lot of money wherever

25:02

wherever the company is, and that was

25:04

true of you as still is, but

25:06

it's also true of many other countries

25:08

in the world. If you go into

25:10

your own home and look around,

25:13

you're gonna see things from other

25:15

countries, so why limit your

25:17

investments to

25:17

only one

25:19

country? there

25:19

are opportunities, but don't do

25:21

it unless you know what you're doing. If I

25:23

say to invest in CountryX and you

25:25

can't find CountryX on the map.

25:28

Don't do it. Please don't do

25:30

it. But, you know, a huge

25:32

opportunity is that as I look around

25:34

the world right now,

25:36

I mean, some of the great opportunities I see.

25:38

Russia would be a a

25:40

new brain and I have learned that if you

25:42

invest in a country at war,

25:44

you're the end of the war, you usually make a lot of

25:47

money. Now I'm not investing in Russia and

25:49

Ukraine at the moment,

25:51

but I would like to. And

25:53

speaking of that kind of thing,

25:55

Venezuela is a disaster. I would

25:57

like to invest in

25:59

Venezuela. sanctions. So Americans are it's

26:01

difficult for Americans, but I have learned

26:03

that throughout history, you

26:06

invest in a country that's

26:08

a disaster Usually,

26:09

if you have staying power, you're

26:11

going to make a lot of money. Because

26:13

no country stays a disaster forever.

26:16

Even if it goes bankrupt,

26:18

or even if it loses war. So that's

26:20

one way that I look at the world.

26:22

It does not make mistakes, but

26:25

don't don't think I don't, but that

26:27

is one thing to do. So

26:29

the part of the problem right

26:31

now is most of

26:32

the disasters are yet

26:35

to come. If we do go

26:37

into recession for a year,

26:39

two or three in the US, that

26:41

means everybody will

26:43

have problems. because we are the largest and

26:45

most important. You

26:47

have to take that into consideration,

26:49

but look around your house

26:52

and see

26:52

what products that you really like, and

26:55

you know

26:55

are good and that might lead to an

26:57

investment or another country.

27:00

or just if you love

27:02

going to Country X

27:04

on your holidays,

27:07

don't think about just going hour

27:09

holiday. Think about what investments might

27:12

be in that country. My

27:14

main messages like

27:16

yours don't limit yourself to one country

27:18

because there are many opportunities

27:20

all over the world. So I have

27:22

two things that

27:22

I'm thinking about in my head. One is they're

27:24

a lot cheaper and so

27:27

exposure and value stocks

27:28

tend to do well during

27:30

inflationary times. But

27:33

there's the challenge that, as you mentioned, the recession,

27:35

the US stocks go down fifty. It'd probably

27:38

be a lot

27:38

to hope that foreign stocks would be

27:41

flat or up.

27:42

So how

27:43

do we think how should we think about that as equity investors? Is

27:45

this something that we should be thinking about buying

27:47

them and putting them away for a decade?

27:49

What's like a mindset to kinda think about

27:52

the opportunity set of these forty, fifty

27:54

plus countries. Well, that's

27:56

the way I try to invest.

27:58

I'm lazy, and so I like to find

28:01

something I can buy an own for many

28:03

years, then I don't have to

28:05

jump in and out, etcetera, etcetera.

28:07

I mean, it's not that easy to buy things

28:09

like that. But Some countries are like them.

28:12

I'm investing in Uzbekistan right

28:14

now. I mean, it's a

28:16

disaster. Uzbekistan was one of the

28:18

Soviet Union's countries.

28:20

They ruined it. Totally ruined it, but

28:22

it has huge assets. And there's a

28:24

new government now, which is running things

28:26

away you and I would run things.

28:29

I hope. and it's very,

28:31

very cheap. You know, most people can't

28:33

find it on the map. Please don't

28:35

invest in New Jersey unless you know

28:37

what doing. and I don't know that I

28:39

do. But there are places like

28:41

that. There are always places like

28:43

that in the world. But you

28:45

mentioned China. Yes. the Chinese market is

28:47

very cheap right now. And

28:49

China might be continuing

28:51

to grow as a very important

28:53

and successful country. I

28:56

have investments in China. I'm not

28:58

investing there at the moment. But

29:00

I hope that someday,

29:02

my kids say, my gosh, he

29:04

must do it a smart guy. Look at all these Chinese

29:07

shares we own, you know, for eighty

29:09

years from now. I hope

29:11

they're rich. because of these

29:13

Chinese shares that I never

29:15

sell. So there are usually

29:17

opportunities. And again, look

29:19

around your own home and you

29:21

will see things that are made in

29:23

other countries and that might lead

29:25

to opportunities. But you are exactly

29:27

right, ma'am, there are opportunities in

29:30

other countries always have been and

29:32

always will be. You

29:34

know,

29:34

one of the things when reading your

29:37

books many years ago that left a huge impression to

29:39

me was sort of this concept where you

29:41

would travel through a lot of the countries and talk about

29:43

opening up a brokerage crowd, picking

29:45

up some shares. And I think, you know, so often,

29:48

investors today, particularly in sort

29:50

of the Robinhood, fast trading. I mean, you could

29:52

have said this about many other, you

29:54

know, generations too, but

29:56

particularly feels like today, the time

29:58

horizons are condensed

29:59

from you

30:00

know, not years or decades, but

30:03

not even quarters anymore or

30:05

years, but, like, you know, days, weeks,

30:07

months. And trying to

30:09

come up with a concept to relate to

30:11

investors, you know,

30:12

investing in something and giving it

30:15

time. I remember hearing a Ken

30:17

French. He was like, you know, people making

30:18

inferences from 135

30:20

ten years is crazy. You know, like it a

30:23

lot of these, if you're buying a cheap

30:25

country, or a cheap commodity, you

30:27

don't know when it's gonna work out. How do

30:29

you think about that? You know, like, how do you like, if you're talking

30:31

to a young person and they're like, hey, you know,

30:33

okay, I'm interested. Maybe I'll start, you know, doing some

30:35

of these investments in some of

30:37

these countries. How do you relay that time

30:40

horizon? Well, you have answered

30:42

your own question. Everybody wants

30:44

a quick answer. Everybody

30:46

wants to get rich this week

30:48

this month. You have enough experience

30:51

I have enough experience to know

30:54

that unless you are a good short term

30:56

trader and there are some people

30:58

in the world who are extremely good

31:00

at that. I am not. I am

31:02

not. I've learned that I'm no good at

31:04

it. Unless you're a short term trader

31:06

though, the best returns or

31:08

only something for a long,

31:10

long time. You can go back and

31:12

look, if you

31:12

had bought IBM in

31:15

nineteen fourteen, my god, you'd be

31:17

rich. If you'd bought Microsoft

31:19

in nineteen eighty four, my

31:21

god, you'd be rich. If you

31:23

just never sold it, but

31:25

there are

31:27

examples

31:27

like that. If you

31:29

had bought Germany in nineteen

31:31

eighty, you know, like, gosh, you'd be

31:34

rich right now. Jeremy, of course, is one of

31:36

the very successful and

31:38

prosperous countries in the world. It

31:40

wasn't been Has it always

31:42

been? If you buy a country after

31:44

a war, you usually make a lot

31:46

of money because everything is

31:48

cheap. And if you own it for

31:50

years,

31:50

countries like that. Eventually, they

31:53

do very well.

31:54

I can show you many examples.

31:56

You can show people many

31:58

examples. but people, you know, they

32:00

say, yeah, but that's boring.

32:02

And my

32:03

answer to that is, if you

32:05

want to be a successful investor,

32:08

be boring. Be extremely

32:10

boring. And your children and

32:12

grandchildren will love you. Yeah.

32:14

I spend a lot of time trying to think about behavioral

32:16

way to do this. We talk a lot

32:18

about startup investing. And I and

32:20

I used to really think illiquidity was

32:23

a negative, and I and I've sort of changed my mind on this

32:25

over the years, meaning buying something that

32:27

you can't sell. We actually come from

32:29

a farming background in Kansas, and so

32:31

we still have and operate a

32:33

wheat farm in Kansas. And what we talk

32:36

about a lot on the show, there's some platforms that

32:38

have developed that let you

32:40

invest in farms. But, you know, if you invest in

32:42

these front lines, you're not getting liquidity

32:44

for seven years a decade. And it's

32:46

same thing with startups. And

32:48

so this decision to buy something. Actually, one

32:50

of my best investments, Jim,

32:52

was a startup well,

32:54

sorry. best

32:55

investment on paper. You can

32:58

never count, count your chips till you cash

33:00

them, but best investments in start ups was a

33:02

Venezuelan startup. that's doing really well. But I it's

33:04

obviously incorporated, I think, in Delaware, but it's

33:06

doing well. Anyway, but this concept

33:08

of illiquidity and the problem

33:10

with public markets that's hard and

33:13

seductive is that you

33:15

can trade them. So it's, like, almost

33:17

like we need, like, some sort of

33:19

lockbox or I

33:21

mean, financial advisers is is great for that

33:23

too, but a way to keep

33:25

people from harming themselves. I

33:27

don't have the answer, but but

33:30

if people learned. I I had to learn my

33:32

way, and that is my way. My way is

33:34

the only thing is a long time, but there

33:36

are people who are short term

33:38

traders. But if you figure out your

33:40

own way and you look at

33:42

your own

33:43

examples of the examples of

33:45

history, you will see that

33:47

vast fortunes can be made by owning

33:49

something for a long time and

33:51

not looking at the fluctuations, the

33:54

week to week or month to month

33:56

fluctuations. just ignore them. If

33:58

you've done the right

33:59

homework and you

34:00

found the right people and the

34:03

right concept, the best thing you saw

34:04

on it forever.

34:07

Yeah. You know,

34:07

we've talked to young investors a lot about this where

34:09

even at stock market sort

34:11

of ten percent returns. It's

34:14

pretty amazing to see the compounding, you

34:16

know, twenty five years, you're gonna ten x and

34:18

fifty years, a hundred x and invest and and

34:20

that I think a lot of people was, like, opens their eyes. I was

34:23

thinking as you were talking

34:25

because of all these patchwork

34:28

of countries around the world. What's your count up to? Jim,

34:30

are you over two hundred? I mean, how many pins do

34:32

you have on the map now?

34:34

Well, I have visited

34:36

a lot of countries. I've driven

34:38

around the world's wise, and I have

34:40

invested in a lot of countries. I've visited

34:43

more than I've invested in, but I am

34:45

constantly on the lookout for a new

34:47

country. I mentioned to Uzbekistan before,

34:49

I went to Uzbekistan,

34:52

thirty

34:52

or forty years ago for the first time, ignored

34:55

it ever since, but now

34:57

I see changes taking place.

35:00

with positive changes. And hopefully, whenever

35:03

I can observe the

35:05

world and find

35:08

positive changes, if they have

35:10

a market, I hope I can make

35:12

investments there. That does

35:13

not make it easy just

35:15

because,

35:16

I mean, have

35:18

investments in Zimbabwe now, which has been a disaster. But

35:22

if you find countries

35:24

where good things are happening,

35:27

you can make an investment if you do

35:29

your research. I don't know

35:30

how to tell people this. We

35:33

can show them example. After

35:36

example, I've for example, but they will

35:37

usually

35:38

say, I don't know anything or

35:40

please give me a heart chip. Tell

35:42

me

35:43

what to buy. And

35:45

that's a terrible thing to

35:47

do. The the fun

35:49

example, I mean, there's there's a great book.

35:51

We had him on the podcast Chris Meyer, who

35:53

talked about a hundred backers in the a hundred one in the stock market, an

35:55

older book. But this concept of

35:57

these investments that making

36:00

hundred times your money is a very life changing.

36:02

But often these can take, like, you know, a

36:04

decade or two versus the

36:06

sort of time frame most people operate around.

36:08

So I love this concept

36:10

of coming up investments. And I

36:12

kinda gravitate towards a little

36:14

bit of

36:14

your style too. Like, I love the

36:16

deeply beaten down ideas or

36:19

things that are just, like, they're hated or disaster,

36:21

but slowly or quickly being

36:24

less awful or

36:26

emerging into there's

36:28

amazing entrepreneurs everywhere. That's one of the biggest things you, you know,

36:30

know when you travel. You see

36:33

these, like, just incredible entrepreneurs

36:36

and

36:36

every walk of life all around the world. And if

36:38

you just give them enough tools, we were

36:40

saying this about Africa. We did a whole

36:43

startup series on Africa because you're really starting to see

36:45

a lot of startups take off

36:47

in Africa over the last five years. It's

36:49

pretty exciting to see as well, but

36:51

I've never been so on my to do

36:54

list. Well, I

36:54

I just want to repeat again.

36:56

There are millions of entrepreneurs in

37:00

the world and they don't all live in

37:02

California. Yeah. Many smart

37:04

entrepreneurial driven people live

37:08

other places. besides California, and besides the

37:10

United States. There's gotta be a decent

37:12

amount of countries that you've you went through on the first

37:14

couple trips that don't exist anymore.

37:16

Right? drove

37:18

through. I mean, like, the lines on the map have changed since then.

37:20

And that's throughout

37:22

history, that's been the case. You know,

37:24

you can pick any year in history

37:27

and everything that people thought fifteen

37:29

years later was wrong. nineteen

37:32

hundred. Everything people thought in nineteen

37:34

hundred was wrong. Fifteen

37:36

years later. everything people thought in nineteen thirty was wrong.

37:38

Fifteen years later, the world is

37:40

always changing. And if

37:42

you can figure out the

37:44

changes,

37:46

you

37:46

will be successful. Yeah. I mean, there's one of the

37:48

great arguments for diversification as you

37:50

look back again back to nineteen hundred

37:54

and was not necessarily altogether clear that Argentina

37:56

wouldn't be one of the, you know, best

37:58

performing markets, like a lot of

38:00

similar characteristics of of some

38:02

of the

38:04

countries that ascended, but they've been a really,

38:06

really tough one for the twentieth century.

38:08

Well, in nineteen hundred you

38:11

mentioned, Argentina was considered one of the

38:13

great new countries of the world. People

38:15

in Europe would say, I got this, which

38:17

is an Argentina. you know,

38:20

they were very prosperous

38:22

and promising. It would have

38:23

been better off going to the

38:25

United States, but many people thought Argentina

38:27

was the place ago in nineteen hundred. As you

38:29

look back, I'm gonna give you a

38:31

couple questions we can rip off. But the

38:33

first is we ask all

38:35

the podcast guests what's

38:37

been the most memorable, and this is probably

38:40

choosing from a list of thousands for

38:42

you at this

38:43

point. Good bad in between

38:45

between, but what's the most memorable investment you've

38:47

ever made?

38:48

Well, I

38:49

would guess how

38:51

in 'nineteen, every time

38:54

when I knew in the business and I tripled my

38:56

money in, like, six months when

38:58

everybody around me was

39:00

going broke. And I said,

39:02

this is so easy. I'm gonna

39:04

be the

39:04

next Bernard Baruch. So

39:06

I waited for the market to

39:08

rally, and then I so sure

39:11

and three months later, I

39:13

lost everything. That was memorable. You

39:15

asked about memorable investments. That

39:17

was very memorable. It was I

39:19

went from on top of the world and being the cockiest

39:22

kid in town to

39:24

losing everything.

39:26

was a time in once when

39:28

I shorted oil, I shorted

39:31

oil on the Friday, And

39:33

on the weekend, Iran and

39:36

Iraq went to war.

39:38

Needless to say, oil went through the roof on

39:40

Monday, that

39:42

was amemberable. investment. My mistakes are usually

39:44

more memorable than my

39:46

successes, and I hope

39:48

that everybody Most

39:50

people learn more from their mistakes than they do from their success.

39:52

When you have a success, you think

39:55

it is easy. I have learned that when

39:57

you have

39:57

a big success,

40:00

close the curtains and go to the

40:02

beach for a while. Stop

40:04

taking. Stop running around looking

40:06

for the next big thing. because

40:09

you're probably gonna make a

40:11

mistake. Yeah. It's so hard, though,

40:14

when we have all the

40:16

various

40:16

hormones raging through us convincing

40:18

us how smart we are and how how

40:22

much we're the masters of the

40:24

universe of a certain investment are getting

40:26

it right. No. Nothing

40:28

worse than a great success.

40:30

Did that period where you were up and

40:32

then kinda gave it back? Did that

40:34

inform, like, position sizing

40:36

or risk taking, you know, kind of

40:38

exposures for you? Or was it more just

40:40

like, hey, I'm gonna be a

40:42

little more cautious with my

40:44

gains? Or or was it just in

40:46

one ear out the other at the time?

40:48

Well, at first, who would talk me,

40:50

you know, the companies

40:52

that I shorted, all of them went

40:54

bankrupt within the next two or three

40:56

years. The problem was I lost

40:58

everything first. It told

41:00

me how little I knew about

41:02

markets. And I did fortunately,

41:04

I

41:05

learned from the experience that you have to know you

41:07

can know a lot about a company or an investment, but

41:09

you have to consider other

41:12

people and markets

41:14

as well. or the

41:16

possibility of war or the possibility of all

41:18

kinds of things happening.

41:20

Disease epidemic, anything

41:22

can happen. and you have to be aware of all It's

41:24

very great to go

41:25

into a a restaurant and get a

41:27

hot tip about

41:30

a company.

41:30

a company but then you have

41:32

to be wise enough to

41:34

consider

41:34

all the other factors in

41:37

the world too. and that was something I did

41:39

not know in the beginning. I hope I've learned

41:42

that. This is not easy.

41:43

I'll repeat.

41:44

This is not an easier way to make

41:46

money.

41:48

And on

41:48

top of that, like, one of the things thinking about so

41:50

many investors, if you don't have

41:52

the appreciation respect for history of what

41:54

has at least happened already, which

41:58

is usually crazy. Right? Like, there's the crazy things that have happened all over the

42:00

world, hyperinflation, stock

42:02

markets going to zero, you know, on

42:04

and on and on. Then

42:07

I feel like people are often so

42:09

surprised about what happens. And we're always look,

42:11

things are always gonna be weirder in the

42:13

future by largest drawdown is in your future. But if

42:15

you don't at least have the understanding that

42:18

normal market returns

42:20

your extreme, I feel

42:21

like it's almost hopeless. Right? Like, people

42:23

getting surprised by little moves that

42:26

are happening and say, look.

42:27

Yep. You ain't

42:29

see nothing yet. Well, you as I

42:31

say, I hope everybody will listen to

42:34

me and learn from

42:36

me because it's not

42:38

easy, and there are always surprises

42:40

coming from somewhere.

42:42

On the tangent to the last question, our

42:44

most memorable investment, most memorable country

42:47

you've been to? On these all

42:49

these travels you've done, is there one that

42:51

sticks out where you say, wow, that's seared into

42:53

my brain for whatever reason? Well,

42:56

I guess that the answer is is China

42:58

because it when I first went

43:00

there, it was red China.

43:03

and everybody was too about the happening. It's

43:05

literally me. And then China

43:08

in the last thirty or forty years has

43:10

become the most successful country in

43:12

the world. So I guess it be that

43:14

from a disaster to a huge

43:16

success that made an

43:18

impression

43:18

on me

43:20

and I'm teaching my children to speak Chinese, etcetera. It's preparing

43:23

them for their lifetime. So

43:25

I guess that's the answer. It's not

43:27

that so I mean, don't

43:30

pick up in favor of the communist party

43:32

of China or anything, but the

43:35

country itself and what has

43:38

happened there. in the past thirty or forty years is

43:40

remarkable. And I would like to find more

43:42

countries that are gonna go from

43:44

a disaster to being

43:46

very successful.

43:48

Well,

43:48

you've mentioned too. I mean, there's certainly there's no shortage of

43:50

lists of country that are in the disaster category.

43:52

So we've had fun on the

43:54

podcast reaching out to portfolio managers

43:57

They're usually in Europe or somewhere else that

43:59

are investing in

44:00

some far flung places. We did a podcast

44:02

on I think it was

44:04

Kazakhstan and one on Iran and how to invest in some of these

44:06

places. And usually, it's a little too wild

44:09

for me, but I love at

44:11

least trying to get a

44:13

base level of understanding. Any

44:15

other places that come to mind? Well, Orlando is

44:17

a great example. Part of the

44:20

problem is you know, we're

44:22

citizens of the land of the free.

44:24

We're not so free compared

44:26

to some other countries. People

44:27

other people can invest in

44:30

Iran. We cannot. other people

44:32

can invest in some of these countries

44:34

because we're from the land

44:36

or the free. But, yeah, Iran, Kazakhstan

44:38

is a good legal for Kazakhstan, legal

44:40

for Americans, but isn't you know,

44:43

there are countries in the world where there

44:45

are great opportunities. And speaking of

44:48

Kazakhstan, son. I found his spec a son, his neighbor,

44:50

more interesting. But, yeah, there are great

44:52

opportunities out there for somebody

44:54

who's got the time. and

44:57

the energy to do the research. So I'm glad to

44:59

hear you have people coming up

45:01

with these crazy ideas. Some

45:04

of them were were gonna be extremely successful. This is this

45:06

is the problem with why I'm a quantum is

45:08

that every you're talking about, like,

45:10

the the people that follow the tips

45:13

but, like, every idea sounds good to me. Like, if I

45:15

go sit down at an ideas dinner, if I go to

45:17

a conference and someone pitches an idea, I

45:19

said, that sounds amazing. which is why

45:21

I'm a quant because otherwise, I just will love everything. I'd be like, that's a

45:23

great idea. I love that. But -- Oh, no. --

45:25

I have learned

45:28

the

45:28

more wonderful it sounds, the more careful I need

45:31

to be. Yeah. On a lot of

45:33

the stuff that's

45:33

disaster, one of the and and

45:36

this is applies a value investing too, which is so

45:38

much of it is wrapped up as this concept in

45:40

our world of professionals is career risk.

45:42

You know,

45:44

if someone listen to this podcast

45:46

says, man, I really love Nevan Jim. I'm gonna put a big chunk in Uzbekistan

45:50

or Iran. and

45:52

they make money, great. They can, you know, they can brag to their

45:54

friends. When they lose money or lose their

45:57

clients' money more importantly, you

46:00

know, they get fired. And so part of the opportunity set on

46:02

the things that get pummeled, particularly

46:04

the things that everyone quote knows

46:07

you should never invest in think

46:09

what I don't know what that is right now. China's gotta be somewhere

46:11

in that category, but that's the

46:13

opportunity too. Right?

46:15

Well,

46:16

I have learned

46:18

that you. When there's a disaster, I should look.

46:20

There nothing I can do

46:21

sometimes like Iran. There it's

46:24

impossible like that as well, but

46:27

you know, in Asian countries have a

46:29

word that means disaster and

46:32

opportunity are the same thing. We don't have

46:34

that word in English, but we haven't been around

46:36

this long. but

46:37

several Asian countries have a word, which

46:39

literally means disaster and opportunity,

46:41

the same thing.

46:44

I've

46:44

certainly learned that in my lifetime just because

46:46

as a disaster

46:47

like Iran doesn't mean I can

46:49

do anything, but I should

46:51

always be looking.

46:54

So

46:54

as we start to wind down, Jim, this has been a

46:56

really a special treat for

46:58

me. This is a conversation. that

47:01

I've been looking forward to for many years. Are you

47:03

putting pen to paper anymore? I mean, you've written

47:06

a whole stack of books at this point.

47:08

You ever get the itch these

47:10

days to start writing a new story?

47:12

What are you working on? What are you thinking about? Well,

47:13

actually, I have written some books about

47:16

Japan, done some books about Japan.

47:18

I've had three

47:20

number one best sellers in

47:22

Japan because I'm saying Japan has got

47:24

serious problems. The first one

47:26

was called a warning

47:28

to Japan. Now the

47:30

problem is nobody cares about Japan

47:32

and many other countries. And so

47:34

the book doesn't go without side of Japan,

47:36

but it goes to

47:38

Kombucha, maybe. but no, that's me. I don't have another book

47:40

in me that I know of right

47:42

now except

47:44

I keep the Japanese

47:46

keep publishing the same book. Where I

47:48

keep the same things, they're gonna be bad in

47:50

Japan. So and then know the Japanese

47:53

publisher comes and says, oh, let's

47:55

do that again. But other than

47:57

that, I don't know of

47:59

anything

47:59

coming yet. Well,

48:00

Japan, I you entire hour or more

48:03

talking about Japan as such

48:05

a fascinating case

48:08

study of

48:09

so many things

48:12

demographics about their

48:13

bubble, which may have been. I mean, it it's

48:15

gotta be at least if it's not

48:18

the biggest equity bubble. It's gotta be on the Mount Rushmore of

48:20

equity bubbles in the eighties. You know, I was

48:22

only ten when it was

48:24

happening, but having read and studied it, I

48:26

mean, it

48:28

seems like such a crazy the largest stock market in the

48:30

world back then and then the

48:32

ensuing and how many decades

48:33

it is. been

48:36

since. But what a fascinating that

48:38

should

48:38

be like the the first case study people

48:40

look into and they're thinking about investing

48:42

is all things, all things Japan. Well, we had one

48:45

in America in the nineteen twenties,

48:47

you know, and in

48:49

Kuwait, they had a job getting both at once.

48:52

It was so great that

48:53

people

48:54

would put in an

48:55

order to buy a million dollars worth of

48:58

a stock. and they

48:59

would give you a

49:01

check postdated for six months to

49:03

pay for it. And the hell

49:05

of it was, the

49:07

book was accepted. The builder was so big

49:09

that everybody thought this was normal. Okay? We have the money

49:12

here. Yes. It's postdated

49:14

six months.

49:16

When that bubble pull out, oh, my gosh, it was

49:18

a huge loss. But, man,

49:20

don't worry. There have

49:22

been many big bubbles in the world,

49:24

his three, and they'll be

49:26

more and more. I always have a

49:28

soft spot for the Internet bubble because that's

49:30

when I was graduating University city and losing

49:33

all my money as a young twenty something. So that for

49:35

me, that was always the one that brings

49:37

back the most memories. But but I was

49:39

actually texting with some friends

49:42

recently because we do a yearly ski

49:44

trip that for many years was

49:46

in Japan. But, you know, they closed down

49:48

because

49:48

of COVID. They have some of the

49:51

best skiing in the world. And the yen

49:53

is a far cry from where it was

49:55

a few years ago. So we're

49:57

rich and to get back to Japan

49:59

and go skiing again. and

50:01

get a little tailwind from the the

50:04

yen's troubles. Well,

50:06

in bubbles, one of the things you'll

50:08

always hear is, oh, it's

50:10

different this time. When you

50:12

hear people tell you it's different at

50:14

this time, be very,

50:16

very worried. I mean, when

50:18

people say, oh, you're too old

50:20

to understand. be very,

50:22

very worried. Be very careful.

50:24

We did a

50:25

a few meet ups in Japan and I remember

50:27

having some beers and

50:29

just chatting with a lot of the locals about

50:32

how they thought about markets. And it was weird

50:34

because, like, there's such a cold to buy and hold here

50:36

in the

50:38

US, but in Japan. It wasn't even like a concept. Like, a lot of the

50:40

young people were like, you don't buy in old stocks

50:42

because they go nowhere. Like they like, why

50:44

would you buy in hold? Why

50:46

would you You gotta be a trader

50:48

here because they don't they don't go

50:50

up. Yes. But

50:50

then the interesting thing about

50:52

the the Japanese stock market is speaking of

50:54

buy and hold, the Japanese stock market is down over thirty

50:57

percent over from its all time

50:59

high. If I told you that US

51:01

market is going down

51:04

thirty percent and never going up again, you

51:06

wouldn't believe me. You

51:07

think he's crazy. You would say,

51:09

oh, you don't understand.

51:11

You're too old. or

51:13

it's different. Well, just be

51:15

careful. Yeah. Well, on

51:17

that note, it's never different

51:19

this time, Jim. It's been a blessing. Thank

51:21

you so much for joining us today.

51:24

My pleasure.

51:24

I might be lied left to

51:27

it again sometime, ma'am. Podcast

51:29

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51:31

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