0:01

You don't help the poor by making

0:04

everybody poorer. The

0:06

media has a frame and the frame is

0:08

Israel is the oppressor and the Palestinians are

0:11

the oppressed. I shouldn't be forced to

0:13

acknowledge my privilege unless I desire for

0:15

that to be part of my interaction

0:17

with somebody else. What I know to

0:19

be true and what all of my

0:21

fellow Gen Z know to be true

0:24

is that this is the most talented

0:26

generation yet. With respect to every indicia

0:28

of disadvantage, there is still a racial

0:31

hierarchy. And though I am of

0:33

course an Anglo, it's certainly not

0:35

a f***ing Saxon. Welcome

0:37

to the Monk Debates. Every episode we

0:39

provide you with a civil and substantive

0:41

debate on the big issue of the

0:43

day. Our goal is to arm you,

0:45

the listener, with enough information to make

0:47

up your own mind. Today's

0:49

debate, be it resolved, Israel

0:51

should take out Iran's nuclear

0:54

facilities. Explosions

1:00

lit up Israel's night sky

1:02

as interceptors took down dozens

1:04

upon dozens of Iranian launched

1:07

drones. Iran's

1:09

missile and drone barrage at Israel earlier this

1:12

month was one of the most brazen

1:14

attacks the Islamic Republic has ever

1:16

conducted against the Jewish state. While

1:19

Israel did respond with a limited strike,

1:21

some say Israel should

1:23

go further and destroy or

1:26

significantly degrade all of Iran's

1:28

nuclear facilities. The

1:30

Islamic Republic doesn't have a nuclear

1:32

weapon as far as we know,

1:34

but it certainly has the material

1:36

and know-how to put together a functioning

1:39

bomb in a matter of weeks.

1:42

That's according to former US national

1:45

security advisor, John Bolton. Well,

1:47

I think Iran could be a nuclear

1:50

threat within about 72 hours if it

1:52

simply wires the appropriate amount of purchase

1:54

money to the Central Bank of North

1:56

Korea and Pyongyang and get a couple

1:58

warheads loaded on transport. that would fly

2:01

across China and deliver

2:03

them to Iran. But

2:06

attacking Iran's nuclear installations comes with

2:08

enormous risks. It would likely result

2:11

in a significant retaliation by the

2:13

Iranian government against Israel, something

2:16

that could lead to a wider

2:18

regional war drawing in the United

2:20

States. U.S. officials such

2:22

as Secretary Anthony Blinken are urgent

2:24

caution. We're committed to Israel's

2:27

security. We're also

2:29

committed to de-escalating, to

2:32

trying to bring this

2:35

tension to a close. On

2:38

this installment of the Monk Debates podcast,

2:40

we challenge the essence of these arguments

2:42

by debating the motion being resolved. Israel

2:45

should take out Iran's nuclear facilities. Arguing

2:48

in favor of the motion is

2:50

Gadi Talb. He's an Israeli historian,

2:52

author, political commentator, and co-host of

2:54

the popular Tablet Magazine podcast, Israel

2:57

Update. Arguing

2:59

against the resolution is Treeta Parsi.

3:01

He's executive director of the

3:03

Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in

3:06

Washington, D.C. Gadi,

3:08

Treeta, welcome to the Monk Debates.

3:11

Thank you. Thanks for having me. Terrific

3:15

debate on deck for today.

3:17

Our motion being resolved, Israel

3:19

should take out Iran's nuclear

3:21

facilities. Gadi, you're arguing

3:23

in favor of the motion, so as

3:25

per debate convention, you're gonna open our

3:28

program with your opening statements. Get

3:30

us underway. Sure. Iran

3:32

is a highly ideological, clerical regime.

3:35

I think we should take their

3:37

ideology seriously. They are bent on

3:40

erasing Israel off the map of

3:42

the earth. And so

3:44

Israel can't afford to have such

3:46

a regime married to a nuclear

3:49

weapon. It has to

3:51

take its nuclear program out. That

3:53

said, I don't believe the chances are very

3:57

large that Iran will actually use the bomb

3:59

as the... I often say that

4:01

the Israelis a one state of

4:03

one bomb state. I don't believe

4:06

they'll actually use the bomb to

4:08

a Israel, but they will create

4:10

a deterrence umbrella over there. What

4:12

seems to be their favorite strategy

4:15

which is to a war of

4:17

attrition through proxies surrounding Israel and

4:19

that is enough to justify Israel

4:22

taking out by force Iran's nuclear

4:24

program to sort of points it.

4:26

To add to that one is

4:28

that the Middle. The minute Iran

4:31

has a nuclear bomb that would

4:33

trigger a nucleus armouries all over

4:35

the region, probably Saudis will be

4:38

dispersed by a bomb, but at

4:40

the world can afford to have

4:42

the whole Middle East and most

4:44

volatile region armed with nuclear weapons.

4:47

And thirdly, Iran's not a normal

4:49

state as a terrorist sponsor sponsoring

4:51

regime and they're letting and have

4:53

the bomb would be a parallel

4:56

to world orders. So I think

4:58

that the world should. Unite with

5:00

Israel in taking out that

5:02

program by force and conveying

5:04

a very strong message. The

5:07

terrorists sponsors can not have

5:09

nuclear weapons. Thank.

5:11

You get a for that opening

5:13

statement concise into the point. Trudeau

5:15

your opportunity now to weigh in

5:17

on our most and you're arguing

5:19

against the resolution? Say be it

5:21

resolved, Israel should take out Urens

5:23

you to their facilities. Let's hear

5:25

your opening statements. Thank.

5:27

You so much! I thank you for having me. There's.

5:30

A premise with this motion that is for

5:32

the new get assume. That. Israel

5:34

has the capacity to take out the

5:36

nuclear program with Iran get utterly it

5:38

does not sign at. This has been

5:41

a key problem from the outset that

5:43

it's pushing for an approach to the

5:45

nuclear program that simply will not work.

5:48

And was also problematic of course

5:50

is that we actually had an

5:52

approach that was working. There was

5:54

a nuclear deal negotiated by the

5:56

United States European allies Russia, China

5:58

and Iran. was in place

6:00

and that was working. The IEA

6:02

had certified 14 times

6:05

that the Iranians were actually living up to

6:07

the agreement. Even the Trump state

6:09

department certified it twice that the Iranians

6:11

were living up to the agreement and

6:13

as a result were kept away from

6:15

the nuclear weapon, the very same goal

6:17

that Gadi said that he supports. The

6:20

crisis we have today is a

6:22

direct result of the Israeli prime

6:24

minister pushing the Trump administration to

6:26

walk out of the deal, a

6:28

deal that was working. For

6:30

years he advocated force taking military

6:33

action against Iran, he opposed diplomacy

6:36

that led to the nuclear deal and

6:38

then later on took credit

6:40

for Trump having pulled out of

6:43

this agreement and creating the disaster that we

6:45

have right there. When the agreement was

6:47

in place, Iran was kept a

6:50

minimum of one year away from having a

6:52

breakout capability. That's the amount of time it

6:54

would take the Iranians to make

6:56

a political decision to build a nuclear

6:58

weapon to having the material for a

7:00

nuclear weapon, a full year. As

7:03

a result of Netanyahu convincing

7:05

Trump to pull out of the agreement,

7:07

Iran's breakout capability is today assessed to

7:09

be no more than a week. That's

7:12

51 weeks that have been

7:14

lost. They were having less than

7:17

300 kilos of low enriched uranium

7:19

as long as the deal was in place, far

7:21

less than what you need for a nuclear weapon.

7:24

They had zero stockpile

7:26

of 20% enriched uranium and

7:28

they hadn't even begun 60% enriched uranium.

7:31

You need about 90% to build a

7:33

weapon. Today as a result of Netanyahu

7:35

convincing Trump to pull out of the

7:37

deal, Iran has several

7:39

thousand kilos of low enriched uranium.

7:42

They have a stockpile of 20%

7:44

uranium as well as 60% uranium.

7:46

They are closer to a nuclear

7:48

weapon they ever have been as

7:51

a result of Netanyahu pushing for a military

7:53

solution that doesn't work And

7:56

pulling out of a nuclear deal that actually

7:58

did work. Have.

8:02

You. Been the arsonist and

8:04

this equation to present itself

8:06

particularly Netanyahu government as the

8:09

firemen as beyond preposterous. The.

8:11

Only thing this would lead this week

8:13

he thinks this would lead to it's

8:15

we were to go down this disastrous

8:18

path is that even would pull out

8:20

of the Nautilus racial treat each push.

8:22

It's nuclear program on the ground and

8:24

the field and nuclear weapon. It's almost

8:26

guarantee that they would have a nuclear

8:28

weapons if military strikes article. Secondly,

8:31

The United States will be dragged into

8:33

yet another disasters war in the region

8:35

that will weaken it. Visa. Be

8:38

China just as a disastrous wars

8:40

in Iraq and Afghanistan. and last

8:42

but not least, That. Struggle

8:45

of the Iranian people for democracy

8:47

and freedom will be further set

8:49

fact as the regime will become

8:51

even more radical and even more

8:53

repressive internally as as been the

8:55

case when we have seen tensions

8:58

between Iran and the outside world

9:00

increase. So it's important to understand

9:02

it is no longer a theoretical

9:04

propose. We have practical experience with

9:06

what it means when the United

9:09

States pulls out of this nuclear

9:11

deal on moves towards in military

9:13

solution or options heard. To request

9:15

of Israeli government. The track record is

9:17

absolutely clear and as a result I

9:20

argue that this motion should fall. Through.

9:23

To thank you for another excellent opening

9:25

scene and was less. Now go to

9:27

rebuttals. An opportunity. Few posts to react

9:29

to what you just heard Daddy Europe

9:31

First. Well. We

9:34

can add debate the past I

9:36

disagree with to the her about

9:38

the past and the wisdom of

9:41

pulling out Jcp Always which did

9:43

not limit your arms capability for

9:45

creating a nuclear weapon. Obama himself

9:47

once said that Iran will be

9:49

weeks away from breaking up to

9:51

a bomb by Twenty Twenty Eight

9:54

is was the high days of

9:56

the Jcp always. We also know

9:58

that the Trump. Strategy

10:00

worked very well because the

10:02

beginning of enrichment of uranium

10:04

accelerated at the minute Biden

10:06

became President and also loosen the

10:09

sanctions and and and everything else.

10:11

But debating the past is

10:13

one thing I think. Treat

10:15

I and I both agree

10:17

that we are now one

10:19

week away from a large enough

10:21

stockpiles of enriched uranium to create

10:24

a weapon. In fact, Director General

10:26

of the International Atomic Energy Agency

10:29

Director Grassley said. Past few

10:31

days back that Iran is weeks

10:33

away from such a capability so

10:35

we have to deal with the

10:38

present week. We can argue about

10:40

the past. theoretically historians can but

10:42

we are now weeks away from

10:44

your and having a large enough

10:47

stock wilde to create a in

10:49

nuclear weapon. and Iran is a

10:51

destructive force all over the region.

10:54

This is a very dangerous regime.

10:56

This is not a normal state

10:58

that we can make deals. With

11:00

it undermines the sovereignty of

11:02

all it's surroundings. It created

11:05

proxies forces all around, and

11:07

letting in have a nuclear

11:09

device is a danger to

11:11

world peace. Just before we

11:13

started recording, that was a

11:15

resolution by the European Parliament

11:17

calling for snap back of

11:19

all the Saxons. Regrettably, that's

11:21

too little too late if

11:23

I didn't have my own

11:25

take over the past, if

11:28

Trump was reelected. Whatever. The.

11:30

other repercussions might have been

11:32

and continue the maximum pressure

11:34

we would not be in

11:36

this dangerous positions that we

11:38

are now because the trump

11:40

administration at thought that the

11:42

way to treat a rogue

11:44

regimes is deterrence not coddling

11:46

which is what this administration

11:48

is doing and which alarmed

11:50

even the european parliament so

11:52

i think clearly the record

11:55

shows that it's too late

11:57

now and when it's too

11:59

late you can only take strong

12:02

measures. And I think the

12:04

international community should support an

12:07

Israeli attack on the

12:09

nuclear facilities. Whether we can do

12:11

it or not, I'm sorry that

12:13

I'm not a real expert on

12:15

all the military detail. My own

12:17

country has surprised me many times

12:19

with what it can do.

12:21

And furthermore, it doesn't tell us, Israeli

12:24

citizens, what it can and cannot do.

12:26

I don't know if you know. But

12:28

when we talk about Israeli nuclear capabilities,

12:30

we always say according to the foreign

12:33

press, because Israel has

12:35

never confirmed that it has

12:37

nuclear weapons. And lastly, the

12:39

Iranians have now threatened to

12:42

use nuclear weapons. They have

12:44

said that if Israel attacks

12:46

them, they will, quote, reconsider

12:49

the nuclear policy. Clearly, everyone

12:51

in the region understands what

12:53

this means. Thank

12:56

you, Gadi, for that rebuttal. OK, Trida,

12:58

your opportunity to react to Gadi's opening

13:00

statement or what you've just heard now.

13:03

Thank you so much. If I was

13:05

in Gadi's shoes, I would also review that

13:07

we should not look at the history of

13:09

this, because the history of this has

13:11

been disastrous for his argument. Reality

13:14

is, again, we are in

13:16

this situation because we unfortunately

13:19

pursue the very arguments and

13:21

strategy that he has been

13:23

advocated. When it

13:25

comes to what Biden did versus what

13:27

Trump did, or in terms of the

13:30

last thing that Gadi said, I thought

13:32

it was very interesting, he is quite

13:34

right. The Iranians have made, not

13:37

to use nuclear weapons, but to

13:39

reconsider their nuclear posture if Israel

13:41

attacks. Well, what did that tell us? It

13:44

tells us that right now, according to

13:46

Israeli intelligence, US intelligence, EU intelligence,

13:49

and the IEA, the Iranians do

13:51

not have a nuclear weapons program.

13:53

They have a nuclear program that

13:56

brings them far too close to

13:58

being able to have a nuclear weapons program. nuclear weapons program

14:00

much closer than it would if the

14:03

JCP had been in place because they

14:05

would have been kept quite a bit

14:07

away from that line. But

14:09

they will reconsider it if Israel

14:11

attacks. So right there you have

14:13

the logic. If Israel attacks with or without

14:16

the rest of the world, the

14:18

Iranians will reconsider posture and they will

14:20

move their nuclear program underground. Israel does

14:22

not have the capability of destroying the

14:25

program, not even the United States most

14:27

likely has that capability. And as a

14:29

result, the very line, the very approach

14:31

that has been advocated by this motion

14:34

is the one that actually will guarantee

14:36

that the Iranians will get a nuclear

14:38

weapon. That has been the track record of

14:40

the past 20 years. That

14:43

will be the track record of

14:45

the next 20 years, which is

14:47

precisely why we have to return

14:49

to a negotiated settlement that makes

14:51

sure that the Iranians are as

14:53

far away from the nuclear threshold

14:55

as possible without incurring the disaster

14:57

of war in the region. The

14:59

region is already tired of war.

15:01

It's seeing what's happening in Gaza.

15:04

The idea that we should expand that

15:06

in the name of creating peace is

15:09

beyond preposterous in my view. Thank

15:11

you, Trita, for that rebuttal. Let me join

15:14

the conversation now with some questions that would be top

15:16

of mind for our listeners. And, Gaddy, let me come

15:18

to you first. Not

15:20

to get too mired in

15:22

history, but I think it is an

15:25

important precedent that the international community has

15:27

been unable, so I might say unwilling,

15:29

to prevent the acquisition

15:31

of nuclear weapons by a variety

15:34

of different powers. We can go through

15:36

the list. India, Pakistan, North

15:38

Korea. Why is this time different?

15:41

Why do you think that there would be

15:44

an ability to remove

15:46

or at least significantly

15:49

degrade the Iranian nuclear

15:51

threat through the use of force?

15:54

Let's hear that argument. Yeah, well,

15:56

first of all, I'm arguing for Israel, and this

15:58

is the first time that

16:01

it puts us in real existential

16:03

danger. So arguing about

16:05

our capabilities, it would

16:07

not be a very informed conversation

16:09

here, but might I say that

16:11

Israel, if pushed to the brink

16:13

of existential danger, can cause great

16:15

havoc in this region? And, you

16:17

know, this administration has been trying

16:20

to avoid escalation of tensions in

16:22

this area by

16:24

appeasing the bullies,

16:26

and this has not worked. Their aim was

16:28

to prevent any American, United

16:31

States, being dragged into a

16:33

conflict here, but they're almost

16:35

inviting a conflict here by

16:37

trying to appease Iran and

16:39

look at what's happening across

16:41

the region. It's lit everywhere.

16:43

Iran's proxies are wrecking havoc

16:45

everywhere. So a regional war

16:47

is actually imminent. Secondly, is

16:50

not that strong. It is

16:52

very, very smart. It's a

16:55

very sly, very ideological regime.

16:57

It completely lacks any moral

16:59

scruples. We know that I

17:02

can rephrase Trida's statements, half of which

17:04

I agree with. But if you just

17:07

change the tone, you realize what they

17:09

are. This is the mobster telling

17:11

you that, look, you have a

17:13

very flammable structure, and maybe it's

17:15

not a good idea to aggravate

17:17

the mobsters because, you know, they're

17:19

preventing the fire from erupting. This

17:22

is Iran. This is what it's

17:24

doing all over the region, you

17:26

know. And I talked to

17:28

a strategist in the United States in the

17:30

aftermath of October 7, and I asked,

17:32

what would you have done? What the

17:34

United States actually did was prevent a

17:36

joint declaration saying that Iran is behind

17:39

October 7. And what this

17:41

guy told me is that if he were

17:43

to make the decision, the next day, the

17:45

Iranian fleet would have been sunk. Because what

17:47

we know is that after the

17:51

United States took out Qasem Soleimani,

17:53

the Iranians were after that very

17:55

careful. So I guess I can

17:57

explain the difference of worldview between...

18:00

and the Quincy Institute,

18:02

and my own view of

18:04

the Middle East is that

18:07

appeasing bullies does not work.

18:10

This is what the administration has been

18:12

trying to do, and it's been creating

18:14

havoc all over the neighborhood.

18:16

What it did from the minute

18:19

the Biden administration came

18:21

in was to loosen the

18:23

sanctions and release about $100

18:25

billion to Iran to finance

18:27

its proxies. I'll have just

18:30

one short sentence about

18:32

history. The JCPOA was

18:34

never intended to prevent

18:36

a nuclear weapon from

18:38

Iran. It was supposed

18:40

to give a cover for its allegedly

18:43

civil nuclear program, and

18:45

it forbades inspectors

18:48

from coming into Fordo and

18:50

other places where it was

18:52

cheating the international community. But

18:54

remember, it had sunset clauses.

18:56

By the end of this

18:58

decade, Iran can have a

19:00

military nuclear program approved by the

19:03

Security Council that is the best

19:05

that this murderous terror-sponsoring

19:07

regime could ever hope for. And

19:09

the Obama administration gave it to

19:11

if you listened to Obama's Cairo

19:14

speech, you would have realized that

19:16

appeasement was the approach all along,

19:19

and not prevention, and not containment,

19:21

and certainly not preventing Iran from

19:23

becoming a nuclear power. Thank

19:26

you, Gadi. Okay, Trudy, let me come to

19:28

you, and I want to again just refocus

19:31

us around our resolution. This is about Israel

19:33

taking out Iran's nuclear facilities. Are

19:35

you sympathetic to the reality

19:38

that Iran has created

19:40

a pretty unique security dilemma for

19:43

Israel? It has surrounded Israel with

19:45

proxies that are attacking it

19:48

from Lebanon, from the West

19:50

Bank, the horrific attacks of

19:52

October 7th from Gaza. Why

19:55

isn't Gadi right that even

19:57

the threat of an international Nuclear war is

19:59

not a threat. Imminently new killer

20:01

or ram creates a

20:03

new level of deterrence.

20:06

Against this, the scope

20:08

of Israeli actions against

20:10

imminent threats to. Israeli

20:13

security on behalf of

20:15

these proxies. My point

20:17

is, aren't the proxies.

20:19

The. Fly in the ointment of an

20:22

argument To say that. Israel

20:24

should not take out Urens

20:26

facilities because a ran is

20:28

a war against Israel. Right

20:31

now it is may mean

20:33

killing and murdering Israelis. How

20:35

can Israel. Legitimately

20:37

realistically tolerate a newsletter

20:40

ram. Slots.

20:42

Talks in your question that I would have to

20:45

on type the let me get to that last

20:47

part of the points. It. Is

20:49

precisely. Because.

20:52

And nuclear weapon. In. The hands

20:54

of Eve on it. Being. Bad not

20:56

just result but for the region as a

20:58

whole and for the state of not to

21:00

the phrase it that we need to prove

21:02

that. And. Nuclear weapon in

21:04

Iraq. however. Many see

21:06

action by. So what? Do the office?

21:10

This is not a theoretical assessment.

21:12

We have the track record of

21:14

seeing what has pushed Iran's nuclear

21:16

program. And. What is not

21:18

the only time the Vanya gave

21:21

up ninety eight percent of the

21:23

low enriched uranium. Accepted it

21:25

as inspections beyond anything that has ever

21:27

been negotiated his through the nuclear deal

21:30

or when we pulled out of the

21:32

nuclear deal or when there's been talk

21:34

about know she action than we have

21:37

seen the nuclear program. Seems

21:41

to assume that military action will

21:43

work and everything else will not

21:45

work that is completely divorced from

21:47

reality. T V. Has it. He has

21:50

shown that the nuclear deal was

21:52

working and there's absolutely zero evidence

21:54

and the assessment audience Us military

21:56

itself. That. emily st strike

21:58

against the wrong by the Israelis

22:00

will not take out the nuclear program.

22:02

It will give them the excuse to

22:04

be able to invoke Article 10 of

22:07

the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would have them

22:09

exit the treaty. Their

22:11

program would go underground. The eyes and ears

22:13

of the IAEA and the international community would

22:16

be lost. And as a result, we

22:18

would end up with Ivan having

22:21

a nuclear weapon. Don't take it from

22:23

me. Take it from the former head

22:25

of the IAEA, both El Baradei as

22:27

well as Hans Vlix, the former Swedish

22:29

former minister, who was also the head

22:31

of the IAEA, have said, the only

22:33

thing that bombing Ivan would

22:36

guarantee is that Ivan

22:38

would end up with a nuclear weapon.

22:40

So precisely for the reason

22:42

that you just mentioned, that it would

22:44

not be good for Israel or for

22:46

the region as a whole, we cannot

22:48

go down the military path because the

22:50

military path will ensure a nuclear Iran

22:52

rather than preventing it. What has prevented

22:54

it so far and has been successful

22:56

has been the diplomacy that unfortunately the

22:58

Israelis, through the work of Netanyahu, according

23:00

to himself, have sabotaged.

23:03

Gary, why don't you weigh

23:05

in on those points? I'm beginning to

23:07

realize that the treatise argument relies

23:10

on the idea that if we do nothing

23:12

now, the Iranians will not get a bomb.

23:15

That seems to me counter-true.

23:18

Is that an expression in English? I guess

23:21

not. We just had the

23:23

warning from the International Atomic Agency Director

23:25

General who said they are weeks away

23:27

from a bomb. We would prevent them

23:29

from having a bomb by not attacking

23:31

them. No, but yeah. Yeah,

23:34

Streely, no, no, please, please. Well, I

23:36

highly say that. What

23:40

the head of the IAEA is arguing is

23:43

certainly not taking military action. He's arguing

23:45

that we should get back into a

23:47

nuclear deal that did prevent the Iranians

23:49

from being able to advance towards a

23:52

nuclear weapon. So you're pointing to the

23:54

first part of what he's saying, but

23:56

there's absolutely no second part by him

23:58

or any previous IAEA. The AEA director

24:00

says that the solution to this is nuclear

24:03

weapons. So what I'm arguing is exactly what

24:05

the director is arguing for us to get

24:07

back into a nuclear deal that actually does

24:09

prevent a nuclear weapon in Tehran. No,

24:12

no, it's not because the

24:14

International Atomic Energy Agency has

24:16

never certified the Iranian program

24:18

as civil. And

24:20

there are many open questions which

24:23

Iran still refuses to answer. And

24:25

may I remind you that the

24:27

European Parliament voted for a motion

24:29

to snap back the sanctions. That

24:31

is, these people, unlike you,

24:33

believe that Iran is striving for a

24:35

bomb no matter what. Your

24:38

idea that Iran now in war with

24:40

Israel would not want a bomb seems

24:42

to me very strange and

24:45

not exactly in stride

24:48

with what I know

24:50

about this murderous imperialistic

24:53

regime. And so what

24:56

you are arguing basically is a chamber

24:58

lenient argument. Let's just appease

25:00

Hitler and then he would not be

25:02

so angry and then he would not

25:04

get weapons of mass destruction and then

25:07

he would not destroy Europe. You know,

25:09

there's a very funny headline in the

25:11

formerly funny newspaper called The

25:13

Onion where it said, Hitler's

25:15

destruction of Europe, a desperate cry for

25:18

help. This is how we

25:20

are treating Iran. These people in this

25:22

American administration and what you are recommending

25:24

is to hug the bully. I

25:27

don't know of a single

25:29

case where mob activity was

25:31

stopped by police hugs. We

25:34

are now on the brink of

25:36

Iran having a nuclear weapon. It

25:38

is clearly their plan to become

25:41

a hegemonic regional power. They

25:43

have been striving for this all

25:45

along. This is why they have

25:47

been cheating the international community all

25:50

along. As you know, Israel stole

25:52

the whole archive and showed that

25:54

Iran is hiding a

25:56

military nuclear program. saying

26:00

now that the way that we

26:02

are at the precipice, the way

26:04

to stop at the precipice is

26:06

not to touch these angry people

26:09

because it will make them angrier.

26:11

No, there has never been a

26:13

case that I know of that

26:15

an ideological, murderous, terror-sponsoring,

26:17

clerical regime has been stopped

26:19

by a Western hug. This

26:22

seems to be clearly off

26:24

the mark as a policy.

26:26

Given that we both want

26:28

to stop Iran from

26:30

having a weapon, I suggest,

26:32

Trida, we stop closing our

26:34

eyes to the inconvenient parts

26:36

of the record, which where

26:39

Iran has always striven for

26:41

a bomb since Biden got

26:43

elected, it increased its enrichment

26:45

program and we should stop

26:47

it. Force is the only

26:49

option remaining. Trida,

26:51

let's hear you a little bit on a hypothetical

26:54

future where Iran has either

26:57

broken out or, as we know, is very

27:00

close to breaking out and

27:02

therefore has a threat that Gadi

27:04

would characterize as existential vis-a-vis Israel.

27:07

Were you surprised by the scale and scope

27:10

of the attack that

27:12

we had before last on Israel

27:14

in terms of its size, its

27:16

sophistication, the risk that

27:18

Iran ran in terms of a

27:21

significant Israeli counter-strike

27:23

and reaction? Does all that suggest

27:25

to you, Trida, maybe a concern

27:28

here that the kind of rational

27:30

actor frame

27:32

that we often apply

27:34

to imminent or actual

27:37

nuclear powers may not apply

27:40

to Iran? I

27:42

have a question with a very interesting premise in

27:45

terms of who the rational actor

27:47

is in all of this in

27:49

the midst of what the International

27:51

Court of Justice is investigating, Israel

27:54

engaging in potential genocide. But let

27:56

me first address what Gadi

27:58

said. we are at

28:01

this presence is because

28:03

of the disastrous policies of Israel

28:06

in destroying a nuclear deal that

28:08

actually was working. That had the

28:10

support of the entire world, minus

28:13

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE,

28:15

had a 15 to zero vote in

28:18

favor in the Security Council. That

28:21

had the support of the IAEA,

28:23

the full endorsement of it. It

28:25

was a functioning deal that did

28:27

prevent. Saudi is presenting

28:29

the argument for diplomacy and a deal

28:31

as if that is doing nothing. That

28:34

is actually doing the prevention that Israel

28:36

not only has failed to do, but

28:38

has sabotage to do. Goes

28:41

back to the arsonists now suddenly trying

28:43

to play the role of a farm.

28:45

We are here in this crisis because

28:48

of the policies of Israel, destroying a

28:50

deal that worked and putting the entire

28:52

world at risk to listen to their

28:54

logic, to their argument, and then saying,

28:56

oh, we're at a precipice now. We

28:58

have to take military action. We're at

29:01

a precipice because you desired us to

29:03

be at this precipice. Because Israel has

29:05

been trying for more than 20 years

29:07

to drag the United States into a

29:09

war with Iran for its own purposes.

29:12

That has far less to do with the nuclear

29:14

weapons than it has to do with anything in

29:17

terms of geopolitics and the balance in the region.

29:20

In regards to what happened when Israel

29:23

initiated this latest crisis by

29:26

striking the consular section of

29:28

the Iranian embassy in Damascus

29:31

to the surprise of the United States, which

29:34

was not even notified of it until last

29:36

minute, infuriating the Pentagon and

29:38

further validating

29:40

the fears in the US administration right

29:43

now that Israel is trying to drag

29:45

the United States into a broader war

29:47

in the region. The

29:50

Iranian response was quite an

29:52

interesting one. And I think that the

29:55

Israeli defense analysts are probably

29:57

regretting the strike against the

29:59

embassy. because what it ended up doing

30:02

is that the Iranians took action using

30:04

both cruise missiles, ballistic

30:07

missiles and drones. They

30:09

gave the Israelis more than 72

30:12

hours heads up which then enabled the

30:14

United States, France, the UK and Jordan

30:16

to also help make sure that these

30:18

projectiles were shut down. But

30:20

despite all of that, despite

30:22

the fact that it got 72 hours heads up,

30:24

despite the fact that the

30:26

United States was involved which actually shut down most

30:28

of these different missiles, the Iranians

30:31

still managed to get through nine

30:33

ballistic missiles that hit two of

30:35

Israel's military bases.

30:38

What that tells you is

30:40

that all of these different efforts to

30:44

use maximum pressure

30:46

sanctions in order to

30:49

prevent the Iranians from having

30:51

that capability has failed. They

30:54

actually had the capacity, they showed that

30:56

the aura of invulnerability

30:58

that Israel had joined was now shattered. This

31:00

is clearly to the detriment of Israel. Now

31:02

of course, Israel would not want to accept

31:05

that there's been new red lines drawn in

31:07

front of it so they wanted to take

31:09

action but the pressure from the Biden administration

31:11

appears to have led to a situation in

31:14

which it did take action not at

31:16

the scale that what some

31:19

Israeli cabinet ministers wanted. But

31:21

what happened when the Israelis took

31:23

action was not surprising. Israel has

31:25

a formidable capability of getting through

31:27

the Iranian air defenses. That was

31:29

not a surprise, we knew that.

31:32

But what was a surprise was that Iran

31:34

now also has the capability of getting through

31:37

Israel's air defenses even when giving 72 hours

31:40

heads up. That has now

31:42

shifted the balance in the region

31:44

in a way that is to

31:47

the detriment to Israel which is

31:49

again another example of Israel taking

31:51

military action and then ending

31:53

up in a worse situation than it was

31:55

in before. Same thing. As

31:57

with the JCPOA taking action to... The

32:00

undermine a diplomatic deals and saber of

32:02

the military actions and then ending up

32:04

in a worse situation than it was

32:06

before. It's the difference of course, beings

32:09

as much as is what suffers if

32:11

you mom gets close to nuclear weapons,

32:13

entire region suffers as a result of

32:15

it. The track Record: The lessons here

32:17

are clear. Yes, there is despises. In

32:20

favor of taking military actions was at

32:22

some point we have to be honest

32:24

that it's not because of that belief

32:26

that he actually works in terms of

32:29

preventing a nuclear weapon, it works it

32:31

savored because there is a desire to

32:33

actually have a large of war in

32:35

the results and on the American side

32:37

the question that and has to be

32:39

ask. Does. America wants to south

32:41

another major war in the Middle East

32:44

similar to what is have with Iraq

32:46

and Afghanistan although this one will be

32:48

much much worse. Israel may want to

32:50

help out war, but it's absolutely clear

32:53

the American public wants to have to

32:55

see what part in such or and

32:57

as a result listening to his roles

32:59

advice, letting it leave the way will

33:02

only lead to the type of awards

33:04

that America does not want and does

33:06

not mean. Hi

33:10

Mom clusters or wanted to tell you

33:12

about her upcoming month debate on Anti

33:14

Zionism on June seventeenth. Author and journalist

33:17

Douglas Murray and Uk based International Law

33:19

expert Natasha Store For will debate former

33:21

M S N B C commentator and

33:24

com as many a son and his

33:26

really journalists Gideon Levy on stage in

33:28

Toronto in front of a live audience

33:30

or three thousand people. The debate will

33:33

be streamed so is you can't make

33:35

it in person. You can watch it

33:37

from the comfort of your living. Room

33:40

find out how to become a

33:42

month member, just nor livestream access

33:44

to the months debate on anti

33:47

Zionism is our website right now.

33:49

Triple w the month to base

33:51

or com. had

33:55

a his research to move towards closing statements

33:57

are using for our audience to hear from

33:59

you What's the debate

34:01

in Israel like on this topic

34:04

right now? I assume that there

34:06

are those who would feel that

34:08

a war with Iran right now

34:10

is premature, considering the

34:12

war in Gaza remains unresolved

34:14

and you have a significant

34:16

ongoing threat along your northern

34:18

border with Hezbollah.

34:21

Is there support for a strike

34:24

on Iran's nuclear facilities? What

34:26

is Israeli sentiment at this moment? I

34:29

think that Israelis generally understand that

34:31

we are already at war with

34:33

Iran. I think what

34:36

is missing in it, I agree with

34:38

a lot of what Trida says, except

34:40

we want the labor history

34:42

just for the record. Iran

34:44

began to enrich uranium the minute Biden

34:47

was elected. Maximum pressure was

34:49

working. The JCPOA is a joke. It's a

34:51

joke. It allowed Iran to do under

34:53

the radar everything that it did and the proof is

34:55

in the pudding. The minute it

34:57

wanted to, it emerged with enrichment

35:00

of uranium. It was

35:02

patiently creating the capability. Now

35:04

Israel is already at war with

35:06

Iran. Instead

35:09

of saying, look what's happening with

35:11

Hamas, it's Iranian equipment, it's Iranian

35:13

tactics, what's happening with Hezbollah is

35:15

the same. We're surrounded by Iranian

35:17

proxies and Iran wants to hide

35:19

behind the proxies. What Israel did

35:21

is we don't say, we don't

35:23

believe you. We know that you

35:26

are waging war against us through

35:28

your proxies. I'll just put

35:30

this on the table. Look at

35:32

how Iran built its military

35:34

capabilities and you would see

35:36

why Trida's idea that

35:38

moderation and diplomacy all helped

35:41

and we're creating a

35:43

moderate Iran and all the rest of it.

35:46

Iran does not have a considerable ground

35:49

force. It doesn't have considerable armor. It

35:51

doesn't have an air force to speak of.

35:54

It has only or

35:56

almost only offensive capabilities,

35:59

Ballistic Missiles. it was

36:01

cruise missiles and drones

36:03

you ran his estate

36:05

built on. Undermining.

36:07

All regimes around it and

36:10

creating almost only offensive capabilities.

36:12

The intentions are absolutely clear.

36:14

when it's seize the opportunity

36:16

to eradicate it, Israel, it

36:18

will And what we need

36:21

to do was stop the

36:23

Beijing and Ten Cents and

36:25

some abstract weights and look

36:27

at their capabilities. They're building

36:30

the capabilities to do this

36:32

and they have begun their

36:34

strategies to do this. I'm

36:36

sure. That if treat out was

36:38

cities in Tel Aviv which is

36:41

close enough to Tehran see would

36:43

have felt the danger in the

36:45

Arab Israelis All feel that everybody

36:48

knows that Iran is a rogue

36:50

sponsor of terror, a state that

36:52

is not a normal state and

36:55

should be contained and regrettably the

36:57

European Parliament still believe that sanctions

36:59

or something else it will stop

37:01

it. It's too close to a

37:04

bomb, the danger is to near

37:06

and Iran. Is still not

37:08

willing to be a is

37:10

submit to international inspection Jcp

37:12

away or not day Scipio.

37:14

It's so if we want

37:16

to be realistic and we

37:18

take survival seriously, I can't

37:20

say that anyone in Israel

37:23

would be willing to since

37:25

their existence on the theoretical

37:27

assumption that Iran would somehow

37:29

be friendly if we just

37:31

stops pushing it. That seems

37:33

not to be the case,

37:35

and in any case, irrelevant.

37:37

As long as it has the

37:39

capabilities, Israel is. Bound to

37:42

dismantle them. To

37:44

get a little too closing statements as

37:46

been a terrific to bathe as per

37:48

debate convention we're going to have you

37:51

up for stood for the you been

37:53

arguing against and is really strikes on

37:55

Iran's nuclear capacity. What are the key

37:57

points or ideas that you want to

37:59

leave. our audience with as we

38:01

conclude this excellent conversation. Thank

38:04

you so much. It's been great to have this

38:06

and really enjoy this conversation. I

38:08

think we are in a very, very

38:11

clear situation in which we have seen

38:13

the disaster that will follow if we

38:15

pursue military approaches. Just take

38:17

a look at Israel's own track

38:19

record. Israel is now

38:22

more isolated than it ever has been

38:24

before. It's been engaged in killing more

38:26

than 34,000 Palestinians. The

38:28

entire world with the exception of parts

38:30

of Europe and parts of the United

38:33

States has turned against it. It

38:35

had managed to actually improve its diplomatic

38:37

relations and standing for quite some time,

38:40

but instead of pursuing that path further,

38:42

even after the disastrous attack by Hamas

38:44

on October 7, it

38:46

went down the path of an

38:49

unrestrained military approach with no regard

38:51

for international law and conventions and

38:53

as a result is now much

38:55

worse off than it was before.

38:57

It is now accused not just

38:59

of being an apartheid state, but

39:01

also of committing genocide. That

39:04

is not a pattern that Israel

39:06

should export to other countries or to

39:08

convince them to sign on to that

39:10

type of an approach in dealing with

39:13

other issues. But that is exactly what

39:15

Israel is arguing in this motion

39:18

for the rest of the world

39:20

to accept Israel taking those reactions

39:22

and invite further disaster into the

39:24

region, a region that already is

39:27

suffering too much from bloodshed and

39:29

war and potentially even now genocide.

39:32

The only thing that has worked in the

39:34

last 40 years in

39:36

making sure that Iran does not

39:38

move closer to a nuclear weapon

39:41

is a diplomatic deal that

39:43

actually ensured that there were inspections

39:46

inside of Iran, that the Iranians accepted

39:49

and they IAA certified that they lived

39:51

up to their end of the bargain.

39:54

It's a diplomatic deal that made sure

39:56

that we did not count on or

39:58

assume goodwill on We

40:00

did not trust it, but we had the

40:03

mechanisms in place to make sure that

40:05

they could not cheat without getting caught in

40:07

very, very quick order and as a result

40:10

be able to take other measures if that

40:12

scenario were to take place. It

40:14

worked. It made the world

40:16

safer, but then instead of continuing

40:18

it, the prime minister of Israel

40:21

succeeded in sabotaging it, convinced Trump,

40:23

according to himself, to pull out

40:25

of the deal. Now we're in

40:27

a situation in which, as Gadi

40:29

points out, Iran is on

40:31

the precipice of being able to build

40:33

a nuclear weapon. The very same entity

40:35

that created this disaster, that took a

40:38

working solution and made it a failure,

40:40

should not be the one that we

40:42

listen to in terms of figuring out

40:45

how do we get back to a

40:47

situation in which we can prevent two

40:49

disasters at the same time. The disaster

40:52

of having further proliferation of nuclear weapons

40:54

in Iran and elsewhere in the region

40:56

and the absolute disaster of a major

40:59

military confrontation in the Middle East.

41:01

As a result, we have no option but

41:03

to vote down this motion. Thank

41:06

you, Turda, for that closing statement. Well,

41:08

Gadi, as per debate convention, we're going

41:10

to give you the last word on

41:12

our motion today, be it resolved, Israel

41:15

should strike Iran's nuclear program. Wrap

41:17

this debate up for us. Yeah,

41:19

first, just a side comment on

41:22

the preposterous idea that Israel is

41:24

committing genocide in Gaza. The

41:26

numbers that Turda is quoting are the numbers

41:28

from Hamas, who have not been known for

41:30

their great honesty and

41:32

accuracy. Hamas, we

41:34

are fighting an urban warfare with

41:37

a wild barbaric enemy,

41:39

which is trying to maximize

41:41

its own casualties. And

41:43

still under these conditions, the

41:45

ratio of combatants to civilians

41:48

killed is between 1.7

41:51

and 3, according to available estimates.

41:54

This is in comparison to the international average

41:56

by the UN, which is 1 to 9

41:58

to 1. So,

42:01

to call this a genocide

42:04

is absolutely preposterous. But leaving

42:06

that aside, I think

42:08

the whole argument has been revolving

42:10

around two things. First,

42:12

Trita denying that Iran has been

42:14

working for a bomb under cover

42:17

under JCPOA, which I think is

42:19

counterfactual. And secondly, that

42:21

after we got to this point when

42:23

Iran is close to a bomb, what

42:25

we should do is somehow appease them.

42:28

Regrettably, I agree that the

42:30

world is behaving, is not

42:32

supporting Israel in this endeavor.

42:35

But clearly, Israel is now

42:37

at the forefront of a

42:40

war between civilization and barbarism.

42:43

Anyone who saw the footage, and I don't want to put

42:46

your listeners to the details

42:49

about the

42:51

atrocities of October 7 about dismembering

42:53

children alive and other horrible things

42:55

that we actually saw on videos

42:58

and are undeniable. So Israel

43:00

is now fighting a war

43:03

that the whole West should

43:05

be fighting against a rogue,

43:07

fundamentalist, murderous, terror-sponsoring regime. The

43:10

West should unite behind Israel

43:12

and not hug the bullies,

43:14

but put the bullies in

43:17

their place. And the way

43:19

to put them in their

43:21

place is to begin dismantling

43:24

their arsenals, not

43:26

just their nuclear arsenals, but

43:28

also the proxies that are

43:30

wrecking havoc all around the

43:32

Middle East. Mind you

43:34

that the whole appeasement policy of

43:37

the West is based on its

43:39

guilt feelings about imperialism. Now

43:41

we have an imperialistic force in

43:43

the Middle East called Iran. It's

43:46

undermining Arab regimes around it, and

43:48

it's dedicated to eradicating the single

43:50

democracy that there is in the

43:53

Middle East. The world

43:55

should understand that it is

43:57

already in a war with

43:59

Iran. and that currently only

44:02

Israel is fighting it.

44:04

We are fighting for

44:06

Judeo- Christian civilization and

44:08

the world should unite

44:10

behind us against these

44:13

supporters of barbarism, terrorism,

44:15

and genocide. Thank

44:17

you Gadi and thank you Trita for

44:19

a terrific debate. This is a, needless

44:22

to say, a hot-button debate

44:24

and topic. Both of you approached it

44:26

with real civility and substance on behalf

44:28

of the Munk Debate community. We

44:31

greatly appreciate your analysis and insights

44:33

so thank you again so much

44:35

for coming on the program. Thank

44:38

you for having me. Thank you so much for having us. That

44:46

wraps up today's debate. I want to thank our

44:48

participants Gadi and Trita. They certainly give us a

44:51

lot to think about. If you have questions or

44:53

feedback on what you just heard, please send us

44:55

an email to podcast at

44:58

munkdebates.com. Thank you for

45:00

lending your time and attention to our efforts

45:02

to bring back the art of civil and

45:05

substantive debate one conversation at

45:07

a time. I'm your

45:09

host and moderator, Roger Griffiths. The

45:18

Munk Debates are a project of the

45:20

Warria and Peter and Melanie Munk Charitable

45:22

Foundation. The Munk Debates

45:24

podcast is produced by Roger Griffiths,

45:26

Ricky Gurwitz, and Daniel Hitz. Karen

45:29

Lynch is the editor. Be sure to

45:31

download and subscribe wherever you get your

45:33

podcasts and if you feel like it,

45:35

give us a five-star rating. Thanks again

45:37

for listening.