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Welcome. Welcome. This is the

0:27

show where we bring you science.

0:29

What that potentially means is discovery

0:31

responses, questions, research, technology. Unbelievable. Without

0:33

further ado. This is the Naked

0:35

Scientist. Hello

0:37

and welcome to the Naked Scientist, the show

0:40

where we bring you the latest breakthroughs in

0:42

science, technology, and medicine. I'm Will Tingle. Coming

0:44

up this week, what can be done to reverse

0:46

a dramatic rise in measles cases around the world?

0:49

We'll also be exploring Japan's susceptibility

0:51

to incredibly powerful earthquakes and what

0:54

may have prompted early human ancestors to

0:56

adapt the way they communicated. From

1:00

Cambridge University's Institute of Continuing

1:02

Education, this is the Naked

1:04

Scientist. Top

1:14

health officials have expressed concern over a significant

1:16

surge in global cases of measles. Infections have

1:18

been growing at an alarming rate since 2022

1:22

and the World Health Organization and the

1:24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in

1:26

the United States say that millions of

1:28

children are vulnerable to the potentially fatal

1:30

disease. Our regular host and

1:32

Cambridge University virologist, Dr. Chris Smith, is

1:34

here to take us through it. Measles

1:36

is a really horrible infection and it's

1:38

probably one of the most infectious diseases

1:40

that we know about. Most people have

1:43

heard of the R value. This

1:45

is the number of people that each infectious

1:47

case of a disease causes, how many people

1:49

you give your illness to. And

1:51

for flu and for COVID, it's two or

1:53

three. For measles, that number

1:56

is 20. So

1:58

it's extremely infectious, which means it's. spreads

2:00

incredibly rapidly when you get a case of

2:02

this. It has a short incubation period of

2:04

a week or two and people

2:07

begin to feel unwell about

2:09

a week before they get the rash and

2:11

they have this bright florid red rash all

2:13

over their body for up to a week

2:15

and then they get better. And the problem

2:17

with measles is that not only is it

2:19

a really nasty infection when you have it,

2:21

very high fevers, sore eyes, bad

2:24

cough and in some instances it also

2:26

causes inflammation of the nervous system up

2:29

to years later but the damage doesn't

2:31

stop there because it also has this

2:34

bizarre effect of wiping clean your immune

2:36

slate. It basically introduces immune amnesia. So

2:38

if you look at someone who's been

2:40

infected with measles their immune system has

2:42

forgotten how to fight off all the

2:44

things that you've spent the previous part

2:47

of your life learning to combat and

2:49

becoming immune to. So you can then

2:51

start to catch loads of stuff all

2:53

over again and that means that you

2:55

have to live with the legacy not

2:58

just of having had a bad dose

3:00

of measles but catching things you thought

3:02

you'd consigned to immune history. So

3:04

it really is a nasty infection and around

3:06

the world maybe as many as 150,000 people

3:08

die of this every single year. It's not

3:10

to be taken lightly. And the

3:12

WHO is saying that there's been a 30-fold rise

3:15

of measles cases in 2023 in the European region.

3:18

What is behind such a dramatic

3:20

rise in cases? Well the WHO

3:22

actually went further than that. Hans Kluge

3:25

who's the director of the European region

3:27

of the WHO points out that there've

3:29

been a 30-fold rise

3:31

but 30,000 cases of measles of which

3:34

21,000 have led to hospitalisation and

3:39

most of those have been in young children. 80% of

3:42

them are in kids and they attribute

3:44

this really big surge recently which we've

3:46

also seen here in the UK. We've

3:49

seen an increase of hundreds of percent

3:51

in cases in the last

3:53

year or so. We attribute this chiefly

3:55

to a reduction in vaccine uptake. People

3:57

are not vaccinating at a sufficiently high

3:59

level. rate to

4:01

stop the disease transmitting. Measles

4:03

is incredibly infectious which means you

4:05

have to have very high levels

4:07

of immunity in the population to

4:09

reduce the chances that someone who's

4:12

got measles can run into someone

4:14

who can catch measles and maintain

4:16

a chain of transmission and that's

4:18

herd immunity. And unless 95% of

4:20

people are immune to measles in

4:22

a population it can still spread.

4:24

And because our vaccine uptake rates

4:26

have across the world sagged considerably

4:28

and in some parts of the

4:30

UK sagged to about 60 to

4:32

65% well down on

4:36

the 95% we need. This is why

4:38

we're now seeing A increases in cases

4:40

and B a high likelihood we're going

4:42

to get big outbreaks. And when you

4:44

couple that to the fact that there's

4:47

also a resumption in global travel off

4:49

the back of Covid we're now brewing

4:51

up a perfect storm where we've got

4:53

cases rising, people moving around the planet

4:56

with measles and they're landing in an

4:58

area where the outbreak can take root

5:00

and that's what's got people worried. We

5:02

were sat here maybe less

5:04

than a few months ago in this exact same position

5:06

talking about check-in box and the need

5:09

for a push for vaccinations. It seems like

5:11

we're on almost a carousel wheel of disease

5:13

spiking and you say it's obviously due to

5:15

a lack of vaccination. Are the doctors having

5:18

to counter the misinformation behind this sort of

5:20

anti-vax movement as well? We're

5:22

not sure exactly why vaccine uptake

5:25

rates have dropped but there are

5:27

probably a number of factors. One

5:29

factor is that people are perhaps

5:31

having vaccine fatigue off the back

5:34

of Covid. The

5:36

second factor is that when you look

5:38

at who is not vaccinating it's not

5:40

a comprehensive thing across the populations of

5:42

the world. In places like London it's

5:45

specific parts of London and specific communities

5:47

and this means there may well be

5:49

misinformation, there may well be a lack

5:51

of information in those communities that mean that

5:53

people are not doing the things that other parts

5:55

of the world have been and should be doing

5:58

and also the populations are quite mobile. We're

6:00

seeing this in communities that tend to come

6:02

and go or newcomers to a territory or

6:05

a country so they don't necessarily come from

6:07

areas where there has been good vaccine uptake.

6:10

And then there's the disruption caused

6:12

by the pandemic where some vaccine

6:14

processes and procedures fell to the

6:16

wayside in order to combat COVID

6:19

and people missed the boat and they haven't gone

6:21

back and caught up. And all

6:23

of that is adding up to a reduction in

6:25

vaccine uptake, which is now leading to many, many

6:28

people. I mean, we're talking about outbreaks in London

6:30

of as many as 100,000 people if it really took

6:33

off because there's so many people in

6:35

one particular geography all in contact with

6:37

each other, which means you could get

6:39

an explosive outbreak. And this is

6:42

probably why we're seeing a movement across

6:44

the world of numbers in the way we are. So

6:47

we've got, unfortunately, immovable things like population

6:49

density, but also very real things you

6:51

can do like getting vaccines. Is there

6:53

any advice out there as to parents

6:55

what they can do to protect their

6:57

children from measles? The best piece of

6:59

advice anyone can offer is

7:01

the vaccines are really, really effective, but you've

7:04

got to have them and they're really effective

7:06

given at any age. So even if you

7:08

didn't have your MMR vaccine as a kiddie

7:10

and it's normally given around one year of

7:13

age and then there's another dose given just

7:15

before you start school, even if

7:17

you've missed that cycle of immunization, you can

7:19

go back and have that at any point

7:21

in your life. So if you think you

7:24

might be vulnerable to measles or your children

7:26

haven't been vaccinated or they missed a dose,

7:28

please go and get a dose of MMR.

7:31

This will stop you catching measles and stop

7:33

you passing it on to somebody else. That

7:35

was Christmas. Authorities in

7:37

Japan have confirmed that dozens of people were killed when

7:39

a 7.5 moment magnitude earthquake

7:42

struck the Noto Peninsula on New Year's

7:44

Day. The island nation is located in

7:46

one of the most active earthquake zones

7:48

on Earth. So what happened and how

7:50

does Japan cope with such frequent and

7:52

powerful trimmers? Here's James Jackson, a professor

7:54

of active tectonics at the University of

7:57

Cambridge. The earthquake was relatively

7:59

unusual in Japan. is

10:00

so far away nothing really is going to do anything to

10:02

you. Japan is no stranger to

10:04

earthquakes. This is the 14th above magnitude 5.5

10:06

in the past 10 years

10:08

alone and as you've spoken about the remarkable

10:11

area in which Japan sits is probably the

10:13

reason as to why they get so many

10:15

but how do the authorities there

10:17

try to manage the risk for events

10:20

with such little warning? There

10:22

are a number of interesting points about

10:25

this. Firstly, Japan is curiously helped by

10:27

there being so many earthquakes. Even on the

10:29

west coast we're not that frequent but between

10:32

the 1964 one and this

10:34

one, these are two comparable earthquakes, there were

10:36

probably half a dozen of little bit smaller

10:38

but enough to shake you up and really

10:40

scare you. So when you say to people

10:42

in Japan earthquakes are a problem, you

10:44

need to do something and make everyone safer and your

10:46

houses better, it's not a theoretical

10:48

discussion. They know this will affect them in their

10:50

lifetime. This is not something you can say maybe

10:52

my grandchildren have to think about. No, it

10:55

will affect them for sure but also you

10:57

and your children. So that

10:59

means it's really at the forefront

11:01

of people's consciousness and that's a

11:03

big help. Japan is indeed

11:05

very resilient to these things but

11:07

that's not chance, that's the result

11:10

of decades of careful

11:12

hard work, finding out what

11:14

the problems are, lots of conversations

11:16

between the public, public administrators responsible

11:18

for public safety and the scientists

11:20

and the engineers. And again

11:23

and again, earthquakes in Japan show that

11:25

the architects and engineers can design things

11:27

which will stay up and the issue

11:29

is always when these buildings are built,

11:32

do the constructors of building people actually

11:34

follow the instructions persistently? It really matters

11:36

that you don't cut corners to save

11:38

time and money because anything you do

11:41

will weaken the original design. But

11:43

if you follow it precisely, the buildings

11:45

are likely to be fine and that is the message

11:47

again and again from Japan. These things

11:49

are a sort of quiet triumph

11:52

Of the integrity of the building industry in

11:54

Japan which is much admired and respected around

11:56

the world because in the rest of the

11:58

world it really isn't. Much

12:00

like that, it probably is getting there

12:03

in places like Chilean New Zealand, but

12:05

some thought is a huge achievement. And.

12:07

As you say, we are still very much in

12:09

the so of finding out what's happened, search and

12:12

rescue in that sort of stage and development, but

12:14

in the medium to long term future. To think

12:16

there are any lessons that Japan can learn from

12:18

this earthquake as to perhaps better prepare have changed

12:21

the way they see these sorts of things. I.

12:23

Think the gym have a nice at a

12:25

constant in any lessons from these events as

12:27

is why they get better and better. They're

12:29

not complacent are these things are such as

12:32

this one is a tragedy and lot of

12:34

people have died a lot more destruction because

12:36

of the money, Lots of people's lives will

12:38

be really messed up. My oldest pets from

12:40

a perspective of people far away as as

12:43

a Japan is much admired and respected because

12:45

this size as great anywhere in the big

12:47

earthquake. motors goes from the Mediterranean to China

12:49

routinely killed tens of thousands of people wasn't

12:51

that is not like is a happened. In

12:53

Japan and that is a tremendous achievement such

12:56

as sometimes you lose track of Awesome is

12:58

is really an astonishing thing that the that

13:00

that huge earthquake and Twenty eleven on the

13:02

east coast it's a hundred times bigger than

13:04

this month's The earthquake itself did very little.

13:06

it was the tsunami which is a sleaze

13:09

episodes coming later was drowned twenty thousand people

13:11

and knocked out the need to pass a

13:13

some but says it's it. Infrastructure was really

13:15

not that much damage by the Us cause

13:17

itself which is a fantastic achievement. That.

13:20

Was instruction from the University of Cambridge.

13:23

Center Scientists podcast is produced

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in association with Smith Fi.

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Productions you listen to make scientists with me

13:48

will single still come. We'll find out what

13:51

may have prompted early human ancestors to change

13:53

the way they communicated with each other. But.

13:55

Before that became Independent Review

13:57

of Terrorism legislation Jonathan Home.

14:00

I said new laws are needed to

14:02

combat a I. Chat Bots radicalized users

14:04

are smart. As a research fellow in

14:06

the cyber team at the Royal United

14:08

Services Institute think tank and took me

14:10

three what Johnson whole had found in

14:12

most recent articles that been produced on

14:14

this but dominance comments I think yeah

14:16

that show play with some of the

14:18

since I examples of chat bot software

14:21

that we have available which are based

14:23

on large language models good big ones

14:25

be checked Tp T and Power to

14:27

Google Bar than others and these are

14:29

systems which process. Extremely large amounts of

14:31

data to become a tractor search engine

14:33

have become a de facto image creation

14:35

system. Will become a de facto it's

14:38

empty to talk to. An idea is

14:40

is it gives you the that you're

14:42

looking for, the if there's a philosophy

14:44

behind the software three trying to tell

14:46

you what you want to hear. Within.

14:49

Certain constraints, a certain parameters my something

14:51

that Jonathan played with an example of

14:53

when he sat, thoughts and out that

14:56

there was a possibility of xp think

14:58

found that it could pretend to be

15:00

a radicalizing force or for for example

15:02

and Islamic state a Soviet and they'll

15:05

see the concern there is that given

15:07

the recent prominence in recent years of

15:09

example low nectar terrorism, this is another

15:11

tool a someone might use to kind

15:14

of self radicalized and become extremist or

15:16

terroristic. These laws, language models and chat

15:18

bots. Take their information from to solve

15:20

absorbing suge amounts of data on the

15:23

internet for guess The question is do

15:25

we know where all of this stuff

15:27

that is causing them to spout potentially

15:29

radical information is coming from? Is it

15:31

someone on the internet posting huge amounts

15:33

of recognize data in the hope that

15:35

Chapman picking up. partly. Yes,

15:38

and it's worth pointing out that when

15:40

you use these platforms some of them

15:42

you can. You can get these a

15:44

paid service and ostensibly on paper avoid

15:46

your data being fed into key to

15:48

systems but generally the data whatever that

15:50

may be you feed into these systems

15:52

of the question a query and argument

15:54

and they to that you see into

15:56

the or then used to improve and

15:58

build the other versions. Of these laws

16:01

language models it is providing it's information

16:03

that he thinks that we want any

16:05

part that is spent by he was

16:07

information that people have been feeding into

16:10

it as well as wide a secondary

16:12

sources available internet that is continually trolling

16:14

and gathering and or to analyze with

16:16

the last language models is worth pointing

16:19

out that they have guard rails and

16:21

place is actually the that on mainstream

16:23

muslims models that we speak about and

16:25

he guard rounds are in place to

16:27

basically and shoulda in it for example.

16:30

If if I was an extremist, not

16:32

asking it to help me write something

16:34

that was very incendiary to declare ethnic

16:37

minority, for example, we shouldn't do that.

16:39

They shouldn't be us. Undertake that commander

16:41

should know that command is offensive because

16:44

philosophically, it doesn't itself know that commanders

16:46

offensive, but it's been programmed to understand

16:48

that command shouldn't be carried out as

16:51

a those guardrail should stop it from.

16:53

A system credit bomb or identifying

16:55

the ideal escape route from a

16:57

terrorist atrocity the I might have

17:00

plans commit but a coastal scents

17:02

with are always get around that.

17:04

He very carefully taylor commands said

17:06

that there are instances where you

17:08

might go to overcome the god

17:10

rouse. At Risi. we recently hosted

17:12

a talk by the direct of

17:14

the and Cia. He suggested renouncing

17:16

instances of sexual predators using artificial

17:18

intelligence to create artificial images of

17:20

child abuse which is of it

17:22

renders right that's a horrendous activity.

17:24

Will. Simply that is breaching the God Rouser

17:27

in place in the systems. The God Rose

17:29

should make it harder for a deal impossible

17:31

but it was a misuse of technologies. But

17:33

Jimmy Jimmy speaking that you know that there

17:36

will be of the medical technology east the

17:38

odds you will use and it will be

17:40

actors out that who try to find a

17:42

way out at of of breaching d The

17:45

God Rouse. The. Concern seems to

17:47

be as well, but this is

17:49

incredibly difficult Because it's so decentralized

17:52

that information is coming from semi

17:54

places, it's incredibly difficult to identify

17:56

individuals. To. Prosecute because

17:59

if you run. radicalise someone, it's certainly

18:01

in the UK, and they

18:03

commit an act of terror, you get

18:05

prosecuted for that. So who could possibly

18:07

be blamed in the instance that a

18:09

chatbot radicalises someone? It's a really

18:12

good question. I was watching the Christmas Lecture

18:14

Series by the Royal Institution. These

18:16

Lars Langer's models formed galaxies of data,

18:18

they termed it, but it doesn't know

18:20

what the data actually means

18:22

necessarily. It's just working out its own way

18:24

to categorise data so that it can give

18:27

the users what it thinks the users are

18:29

wanting to hear, even though it doesn't understand

18:31

the data. It's making sense of the data

18:33

in its own way. The system

18:36

itself is just trying to give

18:38

the user what it wants. If the user

18:41

really pushes it and keeps pushing it, to

18:43

give it content that would help them self-radicalise,

18:45

it's harder in their views and harder in

18:47

their perspectives. If they're determined enough, they'll probably

18:49

find a way to make the system do

18:51

that. I would suggest that tells us

18:53

more about the individual requesting that

18:55

data than it does about the

18:58

system itself. If a large language

19:00

model didn't exist, that individual might

19:02

try and find alternative sources elsewhere.

19:04

In the same sense that individuals

19:06

are able to radicalise themselves, the

19:08

four social networks are widely available.

19:11

Individuals can self-radicalise through

19:13

literature, through pamphlets, through

19:16

discussions with peers. Perhaps we

19:18

have now an additional source

19:21

of possible radicalisation, but

19:23

it isn't necessarily revolutionary. I suspect it

19:25

won't be widely adopted as a radicalising

19:27

form, but it's another possibility. Of course,

19:30

we have seen instances of the news

19:32

where there's some suggestions that people have

19:34

used this to self-radicalise. It

19:36

is happening, but who do we

19:38

focus on in terms of the criminality of

19:41

this? I'd suggest that it is more apt

19:43

to focus on the user requesting information from

19:45

the system rather than necessarily the system itself.

19:48

Ultimately, all of technology is a tool and

19:50

depending on how you wield it. Exactly.

19:53

That was Gareth Mott at the Royal United

19:55

Services Institute. Now scientists

19:57

from the Universities of Warwick and Durham say

19:59

they Discovered how assist in our

20:01

ancestors such as may have prompted

20:04

early humans to change their vocalizations

20:06

and ensuing language. I've been speaking

20:08

to Charlotte gun and through the

20:10

language psychologist and author on the

20:12

paper. Seventy. Million Years

20:14

guy was cited for hottest state

20:16

continental a tectonic need men so

20:19

odds in classical landscape completely changed

20:21

we've moved from living in his

20:23

term storage site while too much

20:25

not open landscape an as a

20:27

result of believe climate change as

20:29

we then thought to have all

20:32

of these different ablutions within our

20:34

hominid line so we've of really

20:36

incest and missing in that period

20:38

when we came down from the

20:40

trees and side living in these

20:42

more open. Landscape. So.

20:45

How do you take the tools

20:47

and things that we have nowadays

20:49

and. Turn. Back the clock and

20:51

try and recreate something that was going on

20:53

millions of years ago. So. He

20:55

who. are closing far along

20:57

upon as night fell on the

20:59

phone duel important that the any

21:01

arboreal great hey thats still standing

21:03

majority of the time up in

21:05

the trees a loser like money

21:07

to from a flotation that to

21:09

indicates a lot of we really

21:11

interested because the kids fleet and

21:13

the grumps say to seats are

21:15

what we refer to as concerned

21:17

like cause i'm from fairfax them

21:19

as tall as cool as someone

21:21

we made a constant like noise

21:23

say say a t. Or a

21:25

day or a t. we're manipulating.

21:28

The tongue and mouth and jobs

21:30

and when we make in a

21:32

he i as you were not

21:35

using any that manipulation were just

21:37

making. The sounds and man and around

21:39

it And next to kiss me A

21:41

follow up our Singapore ten and. Mass

21:44

Nation in Medieval Knights

21:46

upon Sense. And

21:51

then in a team again because

21:53

they these none of this manipulation.

24:00

It will have helped our cognition, it

24:02

will have helped strengthen

24:04

our society and help

24:06

move our evolution on

24:09

further. The more I read

24:11

about it, the more that this seems like,

24:13

because language is so fundamental to our cognitive

24:15

development, that this could be one of the

24:17

most important shifts towards us becoming the species

24:19

we are today. Language in

24:21

particular, it's really hard to study because

24:23

it doesn't fossilise. We can always carbon

24:26

date anything we find, but language

24:28

is just this big mystery. We know

24:30

we have it, and we know we're

24:32

the only animal on the entire world

24:34

that has it in such a way that

24:37

we do. A lot of different

24:39

areas of research will come back to language.

24:41

You can look at child development, you can

24:43

look at psychiatry, everything. A lot of it

24:46

can always be linked back to language, language

24:48

therapy, all of these things. And yet,

24:50

there's still this big great mystery

24:52

around language. And I think if we

24:54

really want to fill in

24:57

the big jigsaw puzzle as it was

24:59

about our story, language

25:01

is one of the really important pieces. That

25:04

was the University of Warwick's Charlotte Gannon, and the

25:06

paper in question has just been published in the

25:08

journal Scientific Reports. Now

25:10

it's time for our question of the week, which this week has

25:12

been sent in by listener John. With

25:15

the cost of getting all that junk into space, is

25:18

anyone looking at keeping it there and

25:20

using it to recycle, such

25:22

as a moon base? Cheers. Good

25:25

question, John. To help answer your

25:27

question, we tapped into the expertise of the

25:29

space scientist and former BBC editor, Dr David

25:31

Whitehouse. There have been various

25:33

initiatives over the years to prevent

25:35

people from causing more junk. But

25:38

in the last six months or so, it's

25:40

now written in law in the United States

25:42

that you have to have a means for

25:45

removing your satellite when it's at the end

25:47

of its life from a useful orbit and

25:49

put it somewhere where it won't be a

25:51

problem, preferably burn it up in

25:53

the Earth's atmosphere. This used to be a

25:55

convention that you did this. Now it's coming

25:58

into law. fine

26:00

by the American government took place just

26:02

a couple of months ago. So there

26:05

are things moving in that direction

26:07

and there is growing international cooperation

26:10

that this is something that in the

26:12

past was left voluntary, has to be

26:14

done legally now. So is there anything

26:16

we can do about the space junk

26:18

that's already up there? If a satellite

26:20

fails catastrophically then there's nothing you can

26:22

do, it's just stuck in that orbit.

26:24

There are a couple of companies in

26:26

the world who are working on smaller

26:29

satellites which will go up to an

26:31

errant satellite, grab it and then

26:33

possibly bring it back down to Earth so it

26:35

burns up or push it into an orbit where

26:37

it's not a problem. But you're never going to

26:39

be able to do that for many satellites. Most

26:42

of it we're going to have to tackle with

26:44

just not causing any more and waiting

26:46

for the stuff up there to decay naturally

26:48

which is going to take decades. There is

26:50

no way of gathering in

26:53

any significant bulk or numbers the junk

26:55

that is up there and using

26:58

it for something else. Space is just too big,

27:00

junk is too numerous and you'd

27:03

use up so much fuel to go from

27:05

one part to another to collect this stuff

27:07

and collect small stuff along the way. Nobody's

27:09

going to do that, it's just too expensive and too

27:11

difficult. Sorry to let you down like that John but

27:13

thank you very much for the question and thank you

27:15

very much to the space scientist and author Dr. David

27:17

Whitehouse for the answer. Next time this

27:20

question is from listener Natalie. She asks,

27:22

did women in the Paleolithic era cook

27:24

the food the hunter-gatherers brought back? A

27:26

fascinating question and if you have one

27:29

of your own or think you know

27:31

the answer to this one do drop

27:33

us a line at chris.nakedscientist.com or join

27:35

us at the forum nakedscientist.com/forum. That's

27:38

what we have time for. Do join us

27:40

on Tuesday for another edition of Titans of

27:42

Science when we'll hear from the world-renowned psychologist

27:44

and newly appointed Vice Chancellor of the University

27:47

of Cambridge Debbie Prentice. The

27:49

Naked Scientist comes to you from the University

27:51

of Cambridge's Institute of Continuing Education. It's supported

27:53

by Rolls-Royce. I'm Will Tingle, thanks for listening

27:55

and until next time goodbye. Tired

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