0:02

This is a global player.

0:04

Original Podcast Was it bad?

0:06

Yeah, it was pretty awful.

0:08

If you're a conservative and

0:10

thinking, do we have any

0:12

chance of winning the next

0:15

General election Yes, there were

0:17

little glimpses of sunlight for

0:19

conservatives in a few places.

0:21

But do they tell us

0:23

anything about the coming general

0:25

election? When surely the narrative

0:27

after last night is that

0:29

Labour seem well on course

0:31

towards victory. Wouldn't be taking you

0:33

through. These. Results and explaining how

0:35

it can be that while these elections,

0:38

like all the we've had over the

0:40

past few years, show us that Labour

0:42

do seem to be on course to

0:44

form the next government, that there is

0:46

a danger that the Tory party not

0:48

only lose, but get wiped out, but

0:51

at the same time it can be

0:53

that there are just a few. Little

0:55

clouds on the horizon for the Labour

0:57

party for political troubles, not just for

1:00

the general election. But. For the politics

1:02

of the next parliament as well. Welcome to

1:04

the news agency. The

1:09

News Agency. Is. John

1:11

is Louis, it's Emily I once upon

1:13

a time you do the aftermath of

1:15

a local council election of Friday Border.

1:17

You'd know everything. It is now Friday

1:19

two o'clock in the afternoon and we

1:22

know something's and there's still a lot

1:24

more to come tomorrow. What we do

1:26

know is that Labour. If. This

1:28

is a benchmark for how well

1:30

they're going to do in a

1:32

general election. Have a lot of

1:34

course to feel satisfied. Although some

1:36

little clouds in the sky which

1:38

will come to for the tories

1:40

it was pretty dismal. And if

1:43

you're rishi soon that you just

1:45

go round say hello. How Jean

1:47

Harlow How Jean Harlow, how should

1:49

because in Hollow in Essex Conservatives

1:51

held on about How Chin the

1:53

Mayor of Teas Valley also one

1:55

on one. Pretty convincingly. I would

1:57

never dream taking. The public I represent

1:59

for granted the inner workings hear me

2:01

out of last few months since a

2:03

very very tiring time am and I'm

2:05

just delighted to see Get over the

2:07

line a real actors and continue to

2:09

represent my my community and keep making

2:11

things better for our local or if

2:13

the next four years. But again the

2:15

question is how much was that down

2:17

to the Conservative party, how much was

2:19

sat down to the individual and how

2:21

to who was almost running independent of

2:23

the Conservative party? I mean when

2:25

Hudson axes. The cops I mean for got

2:28

to where his blu rays access to the

2:30

count of when he was also the he

2:32

was trying to come across as a non

2:34

conservative as he just said oh no I

2:36

just forgot. But I think if

2:38

you're one of the Tory pundits,

2:40

commentators, and peas doing the rounds

2:43

today, then you are trying to

2:45

make a census of the public

2:47

as narrow as you possibly can.

2:49

So it is Just as he

2:51

said. John on what happened in

2:53

that Tease Valley Merrill Seats On:

2:55

Whenever somebody talks about the council's

2:57

they've lost the seats they've lost

2:59

We don't know the full time

3:01

yet. Because. We've only had between a

3:04

certain half of them three, so. Far

3:06

that they just want to point to

3:08

this talismanic when or rather a hold

3:10

of. Been out since two games and

3:13

two percent of the vote last time

3:15

round has gone down this time around

3:17

but actually still managed to make more

3:19

than the first time and in a

3:22

perfect conservative world they just say. Of

3:24

stop took him so everything. Else just

3:26

look at Ben these done brilliantly to

3:28

stop talking about what the other stuff

3:30

and really trying to keep your attention.

3:32

on that one when of the night

3:35

yeah we should i think first maybe

3:37

about the council elections as we were

3:39

saying earlier in the week before he

3:41

gets the merrill's is in many many

3:43

ways for sorts of reasons we can

3:45

discuss the council election results on indeed

3:47

the by election result in blackpool south

3:49

which i think we're there is a

3:52

danger of overlooking all more indicative probably

3:54

of where we're heading for the general

3:56

election which is ultimately why most people

3:58

are particularly interested in these election results.

4:00

And what is interesting about

4:02

these results in particular, I think the ones

4:05

that we have so far sat down at

4:07

two o'clock on Friday afternoon, is that they

4:09

are definitely at the lower end of expectations

4:12

for the Conservative Party. They're basically losing on

4:14

average about 50% of the seats that they're

4:16

standing in, of a thousand or so that

4:18

they were up for in this election cycle.

4:21

And in particular, Labour are doing very

4:23

well, and this is something that I

4:25

know from conversations with Labour sources they

4:28

are very pleased about. They are doing

4:30

well in exactly the sort of places that they

4:32

need to win in a general election. Just before

4:34

we came and sat down, news

4:36

came in from Swindon, for example. Absolutely two

4:38

classic kind of bellwether seats in Swindon, exactly

4:40

the sort of seats you need to win

4:42

if you're going to get a majority for

4:44

either Conservatives or Labour. They've now got their

4:46

biggest majority on that council since the 1990s.

4:50

They're doing well overnight. They won the

4:52

Redditch council, again, similar sort of thing.

4:54

Their vote is proving to be very

4:56

efficiently distributed, and what they think that

4:58

where they are putting resources in particular,

5:01

Milton Keynes just come in as I'm

5:03

sat here now, they think that where

5:05

they are putting in resources and the

5:07

get out the vote operation is proving

5:09

particularly successful. These are absolutely central questions

5:11

for a general election outcome. The other

5:13

thing that I thought was interesting about

5:15

overnight, on this podcast, you may

5:17

have heard us at times talking about our

5:19

heroic figure since we launched the podcast who

5:21

we put on Mount Rushmore, you know, the

5:24

sort of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, because

5:26

they're always so good for business. What we've

5:28

never talked about on this podcast is

5:30

Rushmore council and Rushmore borough

5:32

council, which takes in Farnborough

5:35

and Aldershot in Hampshire,

5:37

also Turning Labour, which

5:40

is one of those places that, you

5:42

know, I kind of started my career.

5:44

I worked in Hampshire. I Mean, you'd

5:46

have never said Labour, Aldershot or Labour,

5:48

Farnborough. That again is showing that they

5:51

are making gains across the country. Add

5:53

into that Norwich, Hartley pool, yeah, Thurrock,

5:55

all places that they need to make

5:57

advances in a general election. What

6:00

other striking thing that I've just

6:02

seen is that you now have

6:04

a situation. The alternate songs in

6:06

the Big City So let's say

6:08

Sheffield joined Liverpool and Manchester in

6:10

having not a single to be

6:12

counselor on them at all So

6:14

there's almost becomes no go zones

6:16

for the Conservative party. When we

6:18

were talking in the week to

6:20

Luke Trills or Pulsar from More

6:22

in Common he was saying watch

6:24

what happens in the East Midlands.

6:27

Because this is a brand new Merrill Seats

6:29

in other words, doesn't have an incumbent, doesn't

6:31

have a person? Of So Sing and

6:33

he thought this would be a pussy

6:35

Chrissy! Cool place for us to keep

6:38

an eye on and sure enough in

6:40

the last few minutes as just been

6:42

called. For labour, Claire would has

6:44

one that over Ben Bradlee. A

6:46

why this is so interesting is

6:48

a it doesn't have the big

6:50

personalities that we were talking about.

6:52

Another Merrill tease: The Police's like

6:55

the West Midlands with empty. Streets

6:57

open house, and in his

6:59

family, we don't really know

7:01

what this will look like

7:03

in a sort of personality

7:05

shapes Mayoralty. But the other

7:07

reason is that it covers

7:09

a twelve parliamentary would area.

7:11

In other words, there are.

7:14

Critical seats. In

7:16

this part of the world

7:18

that labour will now start

7:20

feeling pretty upbeat. About

7:22

because it suggests. If

7:24

there is a feeling let's say a

7:26

feeling in the water that Labour is

7:29

preferred over the Conservatives and they don't

7:31

particularly know either Canada as their math

7:33

the for now than they will start

7:36

thinking that this is a good basis

7:38

on which to stop building seats. And

7:40

as he said, you know when you're

7:43

looking the difference between somewhere like. Surratt

7:45

and Rushmore Summer like Reddit

7:47

and Richmond. He was seeing

7:49

completely different, not just geographically

7:52

different, but sort of demographically

7:54

different made up places. And

7:56

I think that's where labour

7:58

will take some. From tonight

8:00

he annual seeing the in that exact way

8:02

you're seeing the Twenty Nineteen Coalition and even

8:05

the Twenty Twenty One Coalition where the consensus

8:07

did very well when the seats were less

8:09

formed. Basically for the way a both ends

8:11

and as part of that picture we should

8:13

just talk little bit about Blackpool South because

8:16

of assessing to that. But zombie gets a

8:18

Saturday. you might be listening to this. it

8:20

will be probably forgotten, but it ought not

8:22

to be forgotten. not least because minutes. A

8:24

striking result in of itself was a conservative

8:26

Sea Salt Benson forced to resign because of

8:29

a corruption scandal. And it can

8:31

Conservative and twenty nine seen. There was

8:33

a sous twenty six percent swing to

8:35

Labour. That is the third biggest swing

8:37

to Labour from the Conservative in history,

8:39

and we've become quite a customs to

8:41

these big big swings now away from

8:43

the Conservatives, but because this parliament has

8:45

had tantalizingly in such a fun way.

8:48

so my daughter elections in great fun

8:50

for all of us who were, that's

8:52

where we got a cakes a pot

8:54

is result recall petitions if you take

8:56

the long sweep of those by elections

8:58

basically from Twenty Twenty one. Twenty Two,

9:00

You see a pattern that is not

9:03

a basis which is sued Swings away

9:05

from the Conservatives under both Boris Johnson.

9:07

And then Rishi soon. Actually, costs didn't have

9:10

any because as we know from there was

9:12

only September October. Really time for any of

9:14

that. But you know, initially to the Liberal

9:16

Democrats seats like chess from an Amish Him

9:18

Northrop said Civets in on us. It's huge

9:20

swings of, you know, twenty five, thirty percent

9:22

and then latterly to the Labour party. Cel

9:24

be an angsty twenty three percent, mid beds,

9:26

twenty percent, Tamworth, twenty four percent, and latterly

9:28

Welling Breath are now Blackpool as well. There

9:30

was no sign. I mean, really seem like

9:32

is fond of saying governments I get a

9:34

kick in the mid term. This is mid

9:36

term in the sense. That like late November

9:39

is middle of the year right? It's

9:41

not. This is towards the very sad

9:43

guys that as of this parliament and

9:45

if there is no sign and these

9:47

by elections have at least a trend

9:49

starting to close it's just catastrophic curtains

9:51

for the conservative both. Yeah and what

9:54

I think is interesting about that is

9:56

the effect it has in Westminster because

9:58

of how to has one. Well

10:00

done, fine. How can you more

10:02

popular? As Emily's pointed out, very

10:04

conspicuous standing on that stage. When

10:06

the Labour guys go is Red

10:08

Rosetta. The Liberal Democrat has the

10:10

orange rosetta a bad house and

10:13

as know Rosetta, you know he

10:15

run independent of the Conservative party.

10:17

just as as the streets has

10:19

done in the West Midlands surely

10:21

tories and come away sick while

10:23

look we held Tease Valley. Everything's

10:25

fine for the election. Surely Tories

10:27

go back to Westminster. The end of is

10:29

A. It's every bit as bad as we

10:31

thought it was. His has an

10:33

interesting point that the tests for

10:35

the last few months we've been

10:37

holding out this weekend. This says

10:39

of elections as the moment when

10:42

his things get really badly. They

10:44

see rebels. Might become slightly greater

10:46

number and decide that there is still

10:48

one more chance to depose. Rishi. Scenic

10:50

and. I guess if you want

10:52

that in numbers terms, anywhere up

10:54

to. A. Loss: As I guess above

10:57

five hundred seats are the conservative

10:59

starts to look notice really bad.

11:01

that's more than half that. Pretty

11:03

catastrophic. And I've been sort

11:05

of trying to get a sense

11:07

of Mps. Who are reading the

11:09

room a little bit and asking

11:11

how they are ceiling this sort

11:13

of growing body of rebellion and

11:15

quite interesting. The first thing I

11:18

was told was that they were

11:20

Mississippi. This is not like it's

11:22

all going fine but they said

11:24

the test so they're sizes to

11:26

stay calm and message rather than

11:28

case the nuclear option or there's

11:30

some will try. And they

11:32

said that they will. Probably be a

11:35

reshuffle issue cause and that maybe

11:37

the Police and Crime Commissioner results

11:39

will offer more helpful intelligence? Is

11:42

there a bit more distance? That

11:44

the other person. I. Spoke to tell me one thing

11:46

that I think will be quite critical going

11:48

forward to it says that. The

11:51

M P's won't be meeting. again until tuesday

11:53

and on tuesday there is only

11:55

a one line whip in other

11:57

words a three line whip is

11:59

when have to be there. You have

12:01

to be in the Commons, you have to be

12:03

in Westminster. A one-line means essentially, you

12:06

can stay at home if you want. So

12:08

I think in sort of like in COVID

12:10

terms, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, is actually

12:13

slightly saying, hands face space, you know,

12:15

stay at home, save the PM.

12:17

The last thing we want is all the

12:19

MPs gathering in one place to talk to

12:21

each other. It's a bit what we

12:23

saw for the Rwanda vote just before

12:25

Easter, but they basically want to keep

12:27

people far away for a bit longer

12:29

to stop any sense of a rebellion

12:31

fermenting. Yeah, I just think the idea

12:34

of keep calm and carry on is

12:36

such an interesting one, because of course,

12:38

it sounds stoical. It just says we

12:40

mustn't lose our heads when all around

12:42

are losing theirs, etc, etc, etc. Yet,

12:44

surely, the rational response is to lose

12:46

your head, given, you know, it's

12:48

you're saying it's November, and people

12:50

saying that's the middle of the year. No,

12:53

it's two minutes to do them though. It's two

12:55

minutes to doomsday. And just to keep calm and

12:57

say, no, everything is going fine. We're just the

12:59

25 points behind in the

13:01

polls. Everything is going exactly to plan.

13:04

Looks like it's complacent. But equally to

13:06

defenestrate another Conservative Party leader also looks

13:09

like it's total lunacy. Well, maybe let's

13:11

listen to Rishi Sunak, who obviously had

13:13

to respond today to what has been,

13:15

you know, a deeply disappointing night in

13:18

terms of counselors, at least is what

13:20

he said. Obviously, it's disappointing to lose

13:22

good, hardworking Conservative counselors, and I'm grateful

13:24

to them for all their service in

13:26

local government, keeping council tax low and

13:28

delivering services for local people. But we

13:30

still got lots of results to come

13:32

as well, just for example, and there

13:34

are also things that I would point

13:36

to. If we're thinking about Sunak's position,

13:39

we've been saying all year, basically, that

13:41

these local elections were a point of

13:43

maximum political peril for him, that

13:45

if there were to be a challenge, surely

13:47

it would come around now. What is striking,

13:50

despite the fact that these two things are true

13:52

at once, despite the fact that these results are

13:54

bad for the Conservative Party, they are objectively very

13:56

bad, and they support all of the rest of

13:58

the evidence that we've had. from all the

14:00

other elections that we've had that the Conservative Party has

14:03

been a substantial swing to Labour since 2019 and

14:05

Labour one way or another at the very

14:07

least on their way to be the biggest

14:10

party. Despite all of that, Sounak, as things

14:12

stand, looks safer now than we might have

14:14

thought that he would. It looks like that

14:16

challenge, which rebels have been trying to orchestrate,

14:18

is disappearing. And the reason for that, we're

14:20

often fed in the show and I think

14:23

there's some truth to it, that Rishi Sounak

14:25

and number 10 are bad at politics. But you know

14:27

what, to give some credit about this, they've played the

14:30

politics around expectation management for

14:32

these elections in a

14:34

blinding fashion, beautifully. Because what they've done is they've

14:36

channeled it all towards these merities. They say, if

14:38

we win these, this is fine, just look at

14:41

that. And to be honest, most of the media

14:43

has accepted it. And so we're in a position

14:45

now where, partly as well, because I think most

14:47

Tory MPs do recognise that they get rid of

14:49

him again without anyone having a particularly alternative prospectus,

14:52

would be a bad move. But they've played it

14:54

pretty well. I think that slightly

14:56

flutters, number 10. I think it's partly

14:58

that the rebels don't really, as you

15:00

say, have any focal figure to sort

15:02

of rebel around. But I think

15:04

if you listen to the MPs on

15:07

the sort of doing the rounds this morning,

15:09

the conservatives, the message that

15:11

seems to be coming through is give

15:13

us time, give us time. You know, we

15:15

are turning things around. We are just starting.

15:18

We have just got the legislation through. You

15:20

are going to feel inflation coming down. Rwanda

15:22

is going to take off. The underlying message

15:24

is give us time. So if anything, I

15:27

would expect that election to be

15:29

pushed back till, I'm going to

15:32

say, December at this point, because

15:34

I think if they can try and convince people

15:36

that the wins are there, that nobody's in love

15:39

with Labour, that, you know, it's not that Labour

15:41

has won your hearts, it's just that you're a

15:43

bit cross with us, give us

15:45

time will be the phrase, and it might

15:47

push the election back another six months. But

15:50

there's one other factor which is buttressing, or buttress, Sunak, and

15:52

make him slightly safer than he might, we might have thought

15:54

he could have been. And that is

15:56

again going back to Blackpool, which is reform. votes

16:00

or so of knocking the Conservative party into third

16:02

place. It's only a hundred votes,

16:04

what does it matter? Psychologically in politics things matter.

16:06

If they'd overcome that, it would have had an

16:08

extra effect. And there's a lot of

16:10

talk, particularly on Twitter or last winter, Friday morning,

16:13

about how well reform are doing in some of

16:15

these council results, particularly in places like Sunderland. And

16:17

there's been a bit of that. The truth is

16:19

what we can see from these results so far

16:21

is reform are generally scoring about six to seven

16:23

percent of the vote versus the sort of 15

16:25

percent of the vote they're getting in the polls.

16:27

So on one level, that's bad for the Conservatives

16:29

because even if they get six to seven percent

16:32

of the vote, the general election, it could cost

16:34

them a slew of seats in Conservative seats

16:36

with now majorities they have against Labour. But

16:38

at the same time, the fact they've not

16:40

done substantially better kind of UKIP type performance

16:42

that you might have seen in the mid 2010s

16:44

at least allays some of the problems around

16:46

soon up. Because if they'd done spectacularly well

16:48

in these elections, and it's hard for them to

16:50

break through in first pass the post, but

16:52

if they'd done better still, it would have enhanced

16:55

those voices on the right of the Conservative Party,

16:57

saying we need a substantial move to the

16:59

right. Well, let's listen now to Richard Tice, the

17:01

leader of the Reform Party. What's rapidly becoming

17:03

clear is basically, as more people

17:05

hear us about reform, we're becoming

17:07

the real opposition to the Labour

17:10

Party in the north, in the

17:12

Midlands, in Wales. We're

17:14

on the way up and it's quite clear

17:16

that the Tories are on the way down.

17:19

Well, if you say you're becoming the real

17:21

opposition to the Labour Party in some areas,

17:23

isn't the electoral truth that if people vote

17:25

reform, they take votes away from the Conservatives

17:27

and they get Labour. So vote reform, get

17:30

Labour. The more people who vote reform, then

17:32

the more reform we've got the opportunity to

17:34

get. There's no difference between the main two

17:36

parties. The variants of socialism, the highest taxes

17:38

for 70 years, the highest government spending for

17:41

seven years, 70 years, the worst public sector

17:43

outcomes, the lowest growth per

17:45

decade for 70 years, and the

17:47

longest per person recession we're currently

17:49

in, it's two years long. That's

17:51

the longest per person recession for

17:53

70 years. This is

17:55

an economic catastrophe and Labour

17:57

Party's plans Will not

17:59

achieve. any economic growth whatsoever. We had

18:02

nothing on that. We've got a bold

18:04

plan to make what pay. We got

18:06

an ambitious plan to get zero waiting

18:08

lists on healthcare, which is absolutely essential.

18:11

So there's so many areas at all

18:13

British lives that frankly need fundamental reform,

18:15

and that's what we stand for. Wichita

18:17

Isis whistle messy. Those of other

18:20

old sauce and assumption here that

18:22

Reform doesn't. Want to damage the

18:24

conservatives? The only wants. To damage

18:26

labor. That is ridiculous because if

18:28

you look at who. Reform is

18:30

comprised of it's people who have

18:32

quite frankly less the conservative party

18:34

or less the conservative party behind

18:37

Cat does lightly and since he

18:39

got thrown out still. Has his

18:41

anything a sort of a personal

18:43

vitriol? Towards the party that's click the

18:45

mouse that's a light is is their vote

18:47

has the conservatives but I think the real

18:50

question at sea for a form is when

18:52

the pool Costas and. Scenes of us

18:54

start asking them questions, not just about

18:56

he's gonna stand, not just that he's

18:58

gonna lead their parties that six sleep,

19:00

What their policies, Are but as we

19:02

know very, very little about. What the actual

19:05

policies? All and com the general elections. I think

19:07

we do need to into a. Say that

19:09

slightly more firmly. Yeah, Another thing to

19:11

say about the form of maybe not

19:13

having done as well as perhaps they

19:15

had hoped is that the game changer

19:17

would be of course or potentially would

19:19

be if Nigel Farage says Ahmed I'm

19:21

going to lead the party hinting at

19:23

when we is had to your gets

19:25

face an endless tantalize isn't it is

19:27

endless kind of means of getting publicity

19:29

with are actually necessarily getting your hands

19:31

dirty in the process. But we have

19:33

talked about. Read on this podcast how

19:35

you have got married in various places

19:37

around the country. The. A much

19:39

more popular than that parties

19:41

and you just wonder whether

19:44

actually far as reentering the

19:46

phrase in a central role

19:48

might do it. For. Reform

19:50

will be back. Also the boat. This

20:00

is the news agency. right?

20:05

So we have covered. In

20:07

a way what went really well for labour

20:09

overnight and as as we said we should

20:11

on the school that lots of things did

20:14

go well. There was some problems I've and

20:16

we refer to become an already which is

20:18

the marathon says honesty that Los T the

20:20

Valley Manhattan resounding superstore victory for him and

20:23

winning an absolute majority fifty three percent of

20:25

the vote. I'm not been speaking see Labor

20:27

sources in the West Midlands all morning who

20:30

are pretty pessimistic about the West Midlands mental

20:32

contests and the streets and which had Parker

20:34

We can get some of the reasons for

20:36

that. And they're all individual

20:38

councils across the country. Places

20:40

like Oldham. Blackbirds, etc and

20:43

some of the big cities well where

20:45

you can sought to see a significant

20:47

patrician of the Labour vote in particular

20:50

in areas with large Muslim populations. and

20:52

indeed is this Birmingham Labor source

20:54

put it to me if we lose

20:56

in the West Midlands it is lousy

20:59

gonna be was parties is going mean

21:01

streets, personal popularity but and seek effects

21:03

at will be around the Gaza war

21:06

and labor and in particular case

21:08

Thelma's initial reaction to the Gaza war

21:10

which is suppressing the Muslim. Votes

21:12

in seats and areas which have

21:14

large muslim population. Yeah. And

21:16

that is something that yeah, We

21:19

talked about the after the Rochdale

21:21

by election when George Galloway one

21:23

his sort of famous victory and

21:25

was on the rampage. It seemed

21:27

about how Labour had been let

21:29

the Muslim population down in this

21:31

country. The question, I guess is,

21:33

how much does that translate into

21:35

a general election? How many parliamentary

21:37

seats are vulnerable. For labour,

21:39

Because of that sizable Muslim population

21:41

a massive think of probably half

21:43

a dozen A dozen. and so

21:46

I don't know whether how much

21:48

of a problem or how much

21:50

that should concern Kiss Salma. I

21:52

mean, It was concerning a

21:54

bit and the situation in Gaza is

21:56

not doing him any favors. The to

21:58

whereas it doesn't see. to be hurting the

22:01

Conservative Party at all. Well, there

22:03

are several key Shadow Cabinet ministers. Shabbat and Mahmoud

22:05

is one where Streeting is another. There are others

22:07

as well who have constituencies with big Muslim populations.

22:10

And there is doubtless concern within the Labour Party

22:12

about the effect that the Gaza War is having

22:14

in terms of an attrition on the Labour vote,

22:16

and not just for this general election, but in

22:18

the future as well. I mean, you're right, John,

22:21

there aren't that many seats where it could be

22:23

absolutely crucial in the general election. And the fact

22:25

of the matter is, as well, right now, the

22:27

size of the Labour lead overall is so massive

22:29

that it doesn't matter that much, because you're basically

22:32

getting compensating factors from other bits of the population.

22:34

But there are those around Gistama, and there are

22:36

those within the Labour Party who are saying, you

22:38

know, in a sort of post-general election situation, if

22:40

we haven't done something to try and recover, you

22:42

know, the Muslim vote is a big part of

22:44

the Labour coalition. It's not just Muslims as well,

22:46

we should say, as other people who are concerned

22:49

about the Gaza War and are unhappy with the

22:51

Labour Party's reaction to it, you can see the

22:53

kind of seeds being sown for

22:55

a politics of discontent with the Labour government that

22:57

could become a problem, if not now for the

22:59

general election, because the overall poll lead is so

23:01

big, then in the future. Yeah, there

23:03

was real pushback, actually, from one

23:05

Labour source who was reported

23:07

to say, if we lose the West Midlands,

23:09

it will be the Middle East, not the

23:11

West Midlands. And that was deemed to be,

23:13

you know, sort of a racist assumption that

23:16

everyone living around the Birmingham area was

23:18

more interested in Gaza than what was

23:20

happening on their streets. But I think

23:22

when you actually look at the breakdown

23:24

and the places where there

23:26

are highest Muslim populations, you

23:28

are seeing that Labour vote heard. It is down

23:30

16 percent. The Greens are picking

23:33

up 14 percent, which suggests

23:35

that maybe people are going to

23:37

the Greens this time round in

23:39

those sorts of places, but for a

23:41

protest vote, you know, simply because they

23:44

don't like what is happening within

23:47

the Labour Party on that one issue.

23:49

Now, the curious thing is that Labour's

23:51

not really fighting this. They're saying, yeah,

23:53

we know we have to win back

23:56

trust amongst our left, essentially. And that

23:58

is, I suppose, what's really interesting. about

24:00

Kistama's whole philosophy over the last

24:02

six months, maybe year, it's all

24:04

been about wrapping yourself in the

24:07

flag, talking about patriotism, not scaring

24:09

the horses, not talking about spending

24:11

money too much, not going really

24:14

hard on big green issues. Maybe

24:16

he has forgot his left flank and

24:18

that is going to be more evident

24:20

in the months ahead. And I think

24:23

what's interesting is that you now hear

24:25

the sort of, you know, the Labour

24:27

Fund, it's coming out and saying, just

24:30

to remind you, we did vote for a

24:32

ceasefire, just to remind you, and they will

24:34

give you the entire wording of that ceasefire

24:36

motion that was in the Commons last month,

24:39

because they think that they have gone as

24:41

far as they could go. They think they've

24:43

gone pretty much to where George Galloway would

24:45

go, but nobody's heard it. Nobody has actually

24:48

heard that change. And so they're kind of

24:50

thinking, is this a comms problem? Or is

24:52

it just people kind of like Galloway trying

24:54

to make political capital after the fact that

24:57

they were a bit late? But then again,

24:59

in terms of the kind of split between mayors

25:01

who are being reelected and those who haven't, I

25:03

mean, as we're sat here, we find

25:05

out that Labour has won North York,

25:07

the new North Yorkshire mayoralty, which includes quite literally

25:09

whose constituency? I believe it is an occupant of

25:11

number 10 Downing Street, John. Yeah. And you know,

25:14

at the start of this campaign, I think a

25:16

lot of people would have thought that would be

25:18

a long shot for the Labour Party. And this

25:20

is one of the really interesting things about these

25:22

mayoralties, right? As we've touched on already with the

25:24

East Midlands, it looks like, and maybe

25:26

we can touch on London at the end, because

25:28

there are some pretty fetid rumors going on around

25:30

London. But it looks like probably

25:33

that every incumbent

25:35

mayor who was standing for re-election

25:38

is going to get reelected, that they will

25:40

win again. In places where there are no

25:42

incumbents, you're seeing the pattern being more typical

25:44

to the national poll. And there is something

25:47

I think about the kind of institutions, the

25:49

institutions of these mayoralties, it's interesting, that

25:52

they become so synonymous with their areas. They

25:54

do become Mr or Mrs, you know, like

25:56

North Yorkshire or Manchester or Liverpool or

25:58

London or wherever. wherever it happens to be,

26:01

West Midlands. They become so synonymous with the politics

26:03

and just kind of regional identity

26:05

of their area that they do, as

26:07

George Osborne wanted to do when he

26:09

created them, they kind of end up

26:11

transcending party lines and they do get

26:13

a big, big incumbency factor in a

26:15

way that other politicians, particularly MPs, simply

26:17

don't. It'll be really interesting to see

26:20

when we get all the results tomorrow if

26:22

every incumbent mayor has won

26:24

their race and that you've got no change

26:27

whatsoever and yet you've got this febrile atmosphere

26:29

in politics in Britain, across Europe, where no

26:31

government can win re-election. More like the US

26:33

actually, we're starting to develop that flick ticket

26:35

type voting that we never really had before.

26:37

We've never had that before in British politics

26:40

but you love your mayor, he seems to

26:42

be a good guy, he blames it on

26:44

the government, he's banging the drum for you

26:46

and it's great for charismatic political figures to

26:48

be out there doing their stuff and

26:51

you can see that the incumbency

26:53

factor is really strong whereas

26:55

in general elections you could have

26:57

the most fantastic constituency MP but

26:59

if the tide is running against

27:01

your party, it's not going to

27:03

say. Not enough people know that.

27:05

And also, I mean, you could put one of the

27:07

slightly less charitable interpretations as well is that you could

27:09

say as well like actually these mayors, particularly outside London,

27:12

at the moment they've got a lot of authority, they've

27:14

got a lot of influence, they've got a lot of

27:16

profile, they don't actually have that much power. They can't

27:19

actually be directly blamed for that much, right, in a

27:21

way that the council can MP to some extent, certainly

27:23

the government. They want more power by the way so

27:25

it's not like they're happy with this but it does

27:27

mean that they kind of get a lot of the

27:30

benefits of the notoriety without some of the traditional drawbacks

27:32

of incumbency. I suppose the one thing we haven't spoken

27:35

about that much yet on this podcast is

27:37

the Liberal Democrats and normally on kind of

27:39

local council election nights you talk endlessly about

27:41

the Liberal Democrats because of the sweeping gains

27:43

that they've made in all these councils. Normally

27:46

Ed Davey would have turned up somewhere smashing a massive

27:48

blue wall down with a comedy mallet. Exactly

27:50

and that hasn't happened and I

27:53

wonder whether that is an underperformance

27:55

of the Liberal Democrats or whether

27:57

it's just that. Democrats

28:00

are going to do really well haven't

28:02

declared yet. I think it is that well I

28:04

should just say that we're recording this at 2.30 this

28:06

afternoon. It's always hard to try and find the right

28:08

sort of zone where you're not too late and

28:10

you're not too early because this is as

28:13

I think we said a three-day affair at least.

28:15

It's basically like a big fancy royal

28:17

wedding and at any one point

28:19

in time you can find a very different narrative

28:21

but I think we are going to hear more

28:23

from the Greens and more from the Lib

28:25

Dems the later it gets this afternoon. Greens

28:27

have had generally very good local election results

28:29

over multiple cycles now and you can see

28:31

them they're going to do the same this

28:33

time and the Lib Dems look they think

28:35

if you talk to them internally they think

28:37

that again where it matters come the general

28:40

election when you've got efficient tactical

28:42

voting that they'll be able

28:44

to score you know 20-30 seats. I

28:46

mean who knows there is a general concern for Lib

28:48

Dems and this is more for the general election than

28:51

the locals probably. The damage the post office scandal did

28:53

with their Devi and the fact he ended up being

28:55

associated with it at that time a failure or unfairly

28:57

or whatever but there is a sort of I was

28:59

talking to a Labour person not long ago about this

29:01

they they were saying they thought that

29:04

the Lib Dems would be a bigger factor in

29:06

their calculations right now than they might have been

29:08

and they don't feel they are maybe that'll change

29:10

between now and the general election but they've sort

29:12

of slightly gone into the background. The

29:28

other thing we haven't spoken about yet

29:30

is a result which comes tomorrow Saturday

29:32

which is the result of who is

29:35

going to be Mayor of London and

29:37

of course that is the most powerful

29:39

directly elected person in

29:41

Britain because actually Sadiq Khan does

29:43

have some biggest mandate in Europe.

29:45

Yeah and and Sadiq Khan does

29:48

have real powers and I

29:50

think that there was an assumption in London that

29:53

Sadiq Khan was going to accrue this. Susan Hall

29:55

was a kind of you know kind of pretty

29:58

cranky kind of odd candidate. to

30:00

have for the Conservatives. And

30:02

yet last night I was picking up all

30:04

sorts of people in a state of some

30:06

panic on the Labour side thinking we may

30:08

not have this, we don't know. And

30:11

a real fear and terror going round

30:13

that Sadiq Khan could lose. It

30:16

would be astounding if Khan lost. I mean

30:18

I was talking to a Conservative London person

30:21

today and they didn't think it was going

30:23

to happen. They did think that, and did

30:25

point out which is true, it is actually

30:27

quite hard to poll London for different reasons.

30:30

It's such a complex diverse place and so

30:32

big and so electrically complicated that you can, the

30:34

way things have to be really precise and so

30:36

on. But it would basically, if Susan Hall won

30:38

despite the fact that her campaign was pretty threadbare,

30:41

threadbare, got very little support from CCHQ, it would

30:43

represent one of the biggest

30:45

polling errors in British political history. There will

30:47

be, I think, you know, this person was

30:49

also saying which I think is true, is

30:52

that it is true to say that for all sorts

30:54

of reasons Khan was a frail candidate. He was looking

30:56

for a third term, it hasn't happened before. There was

30:58

ULAERS, you can say it's politically courageous, whatever, but it

31:01

was clearly very unpopular in outer London boroughs. There is

31:03

the Gaza issue, maybe a little bit less pronounced because

31:05

he said Sadiq Khan and it would be in the

31:07

Midlands, but that's there as well. So if they had

31:09

run a better candidate and it's close to the Tories

31:11

that is and it is closer than people assumed, there

31:14

will be a bit of an inquest within CCHQ saying

31:16

we could have won this and imagine how much it

31:18

would shake the Labour Party if they

31:20

had beaten Sadiq Khan. Well, if

31:22

Sadiq Khan does lose and

31:25

Susan Hall is the next

31:27

Mayor of London, I think we

31:29

three will be together again tomorrow

31:31

for an unscheduled podcast. Such will

31:33

be the political upheaval of that

31:35

electoral move. We love to keep

31:38

you guessing because we know there's

31:40

nothing genuinely that you appreciate

31:42

more than an emergency podcast,

31:45

as indeed we all do. And talking

31:47

about emergencies, one of the strangest

31:50

exchanges of, I'm going to say the night, but

31:52

it was in fact the morning, was

31:54

between Joe Coburn of the BBC

31:57

and Andrea Ledson over that Tory

31:59

success. of Ben Houchin and I'm

32:01

going to say something I wasn't expecting to which

32:03

is that the Tories, senior

32:05

Tories are starting to sound just

32:08

genuinely hurt by the electorate. I

32:10

mean hurt in a very emotional

32:13

sort of time to go to

32:15

bed way. Just listen to

32:17

Andrea unable to take Jo who

32:19

is just literally giving her the

32:22

results of her word. This win

32:24

is down to his personal popularity,

32:26

Andrea. That must be worried. I

32:29

think that whole little bit

32:31

of discussion is absolutely pathetic

32:33

from the BBC. What is a superb all... You

32:36

and Vicky. No, but no one needs to cry. That

32:38

is pathetic. He's won. And all your fans have had

32:41

this big swing away from him. No, I'm sorry. No,

32:43

I am in sickness. No one is taking away from

32:45

Ben Houchin. You are, yes. Harry's

32:47

just tried to suggest that a three

32:49

billion bungs from the Treasury. He sure

32:51

he has. This is all credit to

32:53

a mayor who's done an absolutely brilliant

32:56

job in a key part of the

32:58

levelling up agenda for this government. You

33:00

are feeling under pressure. This is an

33:02

absolute testament for the conservative government and

33:04

the levelling up agenda that have

33:06

backed Ben Houchin. And it is an

33:08

absolute testament to him as a good

33:11

conservative, his focus on his area, his

33:13

support for his communities in negotiating to

33:15

win, to apply for the funding that

33:18

is available for the levelling up program.

33:20

You've made your speech, but actually we

33:22

can show exactly why it's not down

33:24

necessarily to the conservative government. If

33:27

you can't lose your shit on election night, when

33:29

can you? For God's sake. And let's be honest,

33:31

we've all done it. We

33:34

may or may not be back tomorrow. Bye bye.

33:36

Bye bye. Bye for now. The

33:38

News Agents with Emily Maitless, John

33:41

Sopell and Lewis Goodall.