0:00

LinkedIn presents. I'm

0:06

Rufus Griskim and this is the next big

0:08

idea. Today, how

0:11

anyone can make large-scale change, even

0:13

you. On

0:36

a cool night in the summer of 1990, 50,000 fans poured into

0:38

Detroit's Tiger Stadium. But

0:43

they weren't there to cheer on the Tigers. They

0:45

were there to hear a speech from

0:48

a lean man in a Navy suit. How

0:50

do I even begin to thank

0:53

you, the

0:55

wonderful people of Detroit and

0:58

the Midwest? Right

1:01

now, I

1:04

wish I could climb down the

1:06

stage and

1:08

join you in the stands and

1:11

embrace you one and all. You

1:16

may recognize that voice. It

1:19

belonged to Nelson Mandela, who,

1:22

five months earlier, had been in prison. He'd

1:24

been there for 27 years,

1:26

locked away for fighting apartheid,

1:29

South Africa's system of segregation

1:31

and discrimination. Now

1:33

a free man, he was on

1:35

an eight-city tour across the United States

1:38

to rally support for the anti-apartheid movement.

1:41

Everywhere he went, tens of thousands

1:43

of people gathered to hear his

1:45

rallying cry. Let us

1:47

together join hands in

1:50

the struggle against racism, injustice,

1:55

and national oppression. Let

1:57

us together defend with all our men.

2:02

A few

2:06

miles away, a 17-year-old boy sat on the

2:09

edge of the couch in his family's living

2:11

room, watching with rapt

2:13

attention. Mandela's words

2:15

stirred something in him, because

2:17

he was no stranger to racism

2:19

and injustice. Slurs,

2:22

shoves, punches, he'd endure them all

2:24

as a skinny brown kid in

2:26

a mostly white community. Yet

2:28

what amazed him, as he watched, wasn't

2:30

just what Mandela said about equity and

2:32

human rights, it was the way

2:35

he said it. Let me say,

2:40

I respect you. I

2:44

admire you. And

2:48

above all,

2:51

I love you. You

2:59

know, the amazing thing about Mandela is how do

3:01

you come out of the situation he came out

3:03

of and have

3:05

love and admiration as opposed

3:07

to bitterness and anger. That's

3:11

Raj Shah. He was that

3:13

kid 30 years ago, sitting on his

3:15

couch, hanging on Mandela's every word. And

3:18

it just blew me away. I mean, I was a

3:21

junior, senior high school watching on

3:23

TV in my living room, and I was like, okay, I'm

3:25

never going to be like him, but I'd like to do

3:28

something that makes a difference in the world. And

3:30

he has. When

3:33

Raj was in his late 20s, after attending

3:35

medical school and working on Al Gore's presidential

3:37

campaign, he was offered a job

3:39

at the then fledgling Gates Foundation. Before

3:43

he knew it, he was running

3:45

a multi-billion dollar program to radically

3:47

restructure global vaccine manufacturing in order

3:49

to immunize more kids. It

3:51

was audacious. Some might even say

3:53

brash. And it worked. Today

3:56

that program has vaccinated nearly

3:59

a billion. children, and it has

4:01

saved more than 16 million

4:03

lives. Addition is like

4:05

that, Raj calls them big

4:07

bets. As

4:10

he writes in his new book, appropriately titled

4:12

Big Bets, a big bet

4:15

is a concerted effort to fundamentally

4:17

solve a single pressing problem in

4:19

your community or our world. Big

4:22

Bets require setting profound, seemingly

4:25

unachievable goals and believing they

4:27

are achievable. Raj

4:29

didn't only make big bets at the

4:31

Gates Foundation. He made

4:33

them when he served as the

4:36

administrator of the United States Agency

4:38

for International Development, USAID, under President

4:40

Obama, overseeing a budget of $20

4:42

billion and a staff of $10,000. And

4:46

he's making big bets today as president of

4:48

the Rockefeller Foundation, one of the

4:50

oldest and biggest philanthropic organizations in

4:53

the country, where he's focused on

4:55

finding innovative solutions to mitigate climate

4:58

change and end energy poverty. You

5:01

don't have to lead a government agency or run

5:03

a nonprofit if you want to make a big

5:05

bet. You can do it no matter who

5:07

you are or what kind of job you have. You

5:10

just have to master the methodology that

5:12

Raj is going to share in this

5:14

conversation. The

5:23

LinkedIn Podcast Network is sponsored by

5:25

Medtronic. Medtronic is dedicated to the

5:28

pursuit of life-transforming health tech. From

5:30

AI to robotics and beyond,

5:32

we're reinventing what's possible. And we're

5:35

just getting started. Visit medtronic.com to

5:37

learn more. Raj

5:47

Shah, welcome to The Next Big

5:49

Idea. Thank you, Rufus. Thanks for having

5:51

me. having me. For starters, Raj,

5:53

I want to say that I found your

5:56

new book, Big Bets, How Large Scale Change

5:58

Really Happens, to be a a multi-front

6:00

assault of hope in a

6:02

time when so many of us are feeling low

6:04

on hope, and hope based

6:06

on data and experience, not blind

6:08

hope. So I found it

6:11

really inspiring, and I'm looking forward to stress-testing

6:13

that hope in this conversation and hopefully

6:15

sharing it with our listeners. Awesome.

6:18

We need more credible hope and optimism in

6:20

our lives, so thank you. Exactly

6:22

right. Let's start with your story.

6:25

You've had a hell of a ride in your first 50 years

6:27

on the planet. Could you share a little

6:30

bit about your journey, maybe starting with just

6:32

your upbringing, your early dreams, and how you

6:34

ended up on a path to, well, today

6:36

running the Rockefeller Foundation? Sure.

6:39

Well, you know, I'm a son

6:41

of immigrant parents. My parents both

6:43

came here from India in

6:45

the late 60s, early 70s in a

6:47

wave of immigration. They came with

6:50

educational scholarships for graduate school. My

6:52

dad's an engineer. My mom is

6:54

an early childhood educator. But

6:56

they didn't have any resources. And in fact,

6:58

when they came, my grandfather actually

7:01

emptied out his retirement account to buy

7:03

my dad a one-way ticket to America

7:05

because he thought they

7:07

just had this faith in this country that if

7:09

you worked hard, played by the rules, your kids would

7:11

have lots of chances. So

7:13

that's sort of my story. I grew

7:15

up in a tight-knit Indian-American community outside

7:18

of Detroit. It was interesting,

7:20

as a child in that small

7:22

community, if you were pretty

7:25

good at school, you were basically expected to be

7:27

an engineer or a doctor. I

7:29

toyed with both, ended up becoming a

7:31

doctor. But somewhere along the way, I

7:34

just had this bug to kind of

7:36

do something in public service and

7:38

social impact. But I had

7:41

no idea how to pivot from being, you

7:43

know, in medical school to active

7:46

in politics and public service until

7:48

I actually took the leap and tried. So

7:51

that's a perfect segue to your tenure at

7:53

the Gates Foundation. So you become

7:56

a doctor, but you decide you want to

7:58

go into the public service. You volunteer for

8:00

the Gore- campaign, and then you find yourself

8:02

at the Gates Foundation when it was just

8:05

getting started, what was that experience

8:07

like and what did you learn from the culture

8:09

there? What I

8:11

learned working with them was

8:14

really what a big bet is. They

8:16

were willing to put

8:18

a lot of money into large-scale

8:21

projects to create change, but

8:23

they were not willing to settle for

8:25

doing good is good enough. They

8:28

had read an article about 600,000 kids

8:30

dying from a disease called rotavirus. In

8:33

that same article, they learned that Merck

8:35

was going to roll out a rotavirus

8:37

vaccine in America where kids don't die,

8:40

and where kids were dying, they would never

8:42

get access to the vaccine. They just said,

8:44

this is wrong. We should take all

8:47

vaccines that can save children's lives from

8:49

easily preventable diseases and make sure the

8:52

kids at the greatest risk have

8:54

access to all of the same vaccines.

8:58

What I learned from them was that

9:00

you can be bold in

9:03

your aspiration to make large-scale change

9:05

happen, and there's actually a methodology

9:07

to that boldness that can make

9:09

it real over time. That

9:12

methodology starts with the power

9:14

of asking simple questions, which

9:17

in this case I think was, how much

9:19

does it cost to vaccinate a single child

9:21

in a low-income country? Yeah,

9:24

that's exactly right. Bill would pull all of

9:26

us into this conference room

9:28

at the top of the building, and

9:30

we'd sit there and try to answer

9:33

these questions, but he had very simple

9:35

questions. The goal is

9:37

to vaccinate every child on the planet.

9:40

There are 104 million children born every year

9:42

at that time. That was a global birth

9:44

cohort. Probably well under

9:46

half were receiving the full complement

9:48

of existing vaccines, and none

9:50

were effectively receiving the new ones that were

9:53

rolling out in wealthy countries.

9:56

How do you solve that? How much is it going to

9:58

cost to solve the whole problem? problem. And

10:01

that starts with knowing how much does it

10:03

cost to vaccinate a single child, multiply that

10:05

by 104 million. That's

10:07

your total annual cost. And then how do you go

10:09

about turning the great resources

10:12

and position we had, you know,

10:14

Bill and Melinda put $750 million

10:17

initially into creating this vaccine project.

10:20

But how do we turn that amount of money

10:22

into the tens of billions that would be required

10:25

to actually reach everybody? And

10:27

that initiative has been, I guess

10:30

it's not over, it's still in progress,

10:32

but I think it's

10:34

called GAVI, and it's immunized more than

10:36

980 million kids and saved an estimated 16

10:43

million lives. Am I getting that right? That

10:45

is correct. And that's probably a small

10:48

underestimate. And the

10:50

idea that this effort over 20

10:52

years has been creative

10:54

and effective enough to save more than

10:56

16 million lives, it's actually a great

10:59

proof point that you can be bold

11:01

and optimistic about changing the world. And

11:04

if you're persistent and you use the

11:06

methodology, you can succeed. When

11:08

we talk about the power of asking simple

11:11

questions, you know, it reminds

11:13

me of the advantage of the beginner's mindset,

11:15

you know, that not knowing what you're up

11:17

against, coming at old

11:19

problems in new ways, can be an

11:21

advantage. But at the same

11:23

time, there's been a lot of criticism

11:25

of Gates and other billionaires for

11:28

being overconfident and thinking they know

11:30

better than scientists and experts. Having

11:32

worked closely with Bill and Melinda and many

11:35

others, what's your view on this? And do

11:37

you think there's sort of a double-sided element

11:39

to the beginner's mindset that's applied? You know,

11:41

I think I make the distinction between people

11:43

who got very successful

11:45

doing something and then just assume

11:47

that that means that they know

11:49

how to solve every

11:52

problem in the world, you know,

11:54

and approach the task with the confidence,

11:57

some would say hubris, that comes with the fact

11:59

that, oh, I'd built this

12:01

great company so now I can fix

12:03

X, Y, or Z, versus

12:06

a culture of deep learning. When you

12:08

said beginner mind and Patty

12:10

Stoneside for our CEO at that foundation at

12:12

that time, I used to say we start

12:15

with a blank sheet of paper. The

12:17

point wasn't show up and tell

12:19

everybody what the answers are. The point

12:21

was show up, ask questions, listen, travel

12:23

around the world. I've been in environments

12:27

in rural Nigeria sitting with Bill

12:29

and Melinda in someone's home watching

12:32

them ask questions of what it's like to

12:34

feed their children and how hard is it

12:36

to go to the health clinic and what

12:38

do you really need and care about in

12:40

your life. That kind of

12:42

deep time and effort spent learning is

12:45

I think the distinction between making big

12:49

bets and doing it for the good of

12:51

humanity and approaching problems

12:53

with too much hubris and too

12:55

much confidence and not really respecting

12:58

the fact that experts do know

13:00

a lot and ultimately it's the local communities you

13:03

seek to serve that know the most. I'm

13:05

still unresolved on this question of how

13:07

much of this work of solving

13:10

some of these core problems around the world

13:12

should be done by philanthropic

13:15

institutions versus government. So

13:17

I'm inclined to ask you a pointed question,

13:19

Raj. Do you think

13:21

that anyone should have $100 billion? That's

13:26

a great question. I don't know the

13:28

answer to that. The obvious answer is

13:30

no. I

13:33

can't imagine with maybe the sole

13:35

exception or one or two people

13:37

that I think have used that kind of

13:39

wealth to create transformational philanthropic

13:42

impact, I think in

13:44

general we should have, if

13:46

not limits on wealth, we should

13:49

certainly have tax rates that

13:51

are cognizant of the fact that you

13:53

just don't need that much wealth and

13:56

we'd be a much more

13:58

effective and efficient and equitable. equitable

14:00

society if we did

14:02

the right things through public investment. And

14:05

it's encouraging, though, to know that government

14:07

institutions, based on your experience, are capable

14:09

of taking those resources and

14:12

applying them really effectively in partnerships with other

14:14

governments around the world. Yeah. You know,

14:16

when I ran USAID for

14:18

President Obama, and we had, at

14:20

the time, somewhere between a $25

14:22

and $30 billion annual budget for

14:25

global health, addressing hunger and poverty,

14:28

including democratic processes in

14:30

developing countries around the world. And

14:33

you always have to be sensitive to the fact,

14:35

when you have great resources, that

14:38

you can easily overwhelm

14:40

these systems and

14:44

be the source of all the hubris that

14:47

suppresses creativity and local content

14:49

and respect for those you're

14:51

serving. Which is why I think it's particularly

14:53

important, whether you're a private

14:55

philanthropy or a government agency

14:58

or a policymaker in Capitol

15:00

Hill or in any

15:03

community institution, have a

15:06

deep recognition of what you don't

15:08

know and an absolute

15:10

desire to inquire.

15:13

When you say beginner's mind, that's what I think

15:15

is the key to getting smart enough and

15:18

effective enough to be part of these

15:20

big alliances to make great things happen.

15:23

Once again, Raj is a perfect

15:25

segue to the next chapter of your adventure.

15:28

So you found yourself running USAID at the

15:30

tender age of 36. Not

15:34

everyone thought you were qualified, which

15:37

you discovered when you walked into the Oval Office.

15:39

Do you want to share that story? Sure.

15:42

Well, you know, I got confirmed and sworn

15:44

in to run USAID about a week before

15:46

the tragic earthquake in

15:49

Port-au-Prince, Haiti. There has

15:51

been a huge earthquake, magnitude 7.0, just

15:53

off the coast of Haiti, the poorest

15:55

country in the Western Hemisphere. Early reports

15:58

of extensive... In a disaster of this

16:00

magnitude... could well be an unfolding catastrophe.

16:03

250,000 people perished, 21 of 22 government ministries physically collapsed,

16:05

and the United Nations

16:11

building in the country

16:13

also collapsed and took with it the

16:15

lives of many of our normal

16:18

first responders and local security forces.

16:21

So when President Obama asked

16:23

me to lead the overall

16:25

American civilian military and private

16:27

sector response, I've designated the

16:30

administrator of the US Agency

16:32

for International Development, Dr. Raj

16:34

Shah, to be our government's

16:37

unified disaster coordinator. It

16:39

was a huge undertaking, and frankly, I was

16:41

brand new in the job. I had just

16:43

got there. And so the next

16:45

morning when we went to the

16:47

Oval Office for a briefing with the President and

16:49

the Vice President, I was anxious.

16:51

I got there a few minutes early because you

16:54

certainly don't want to be late for that particular

16:56

meeting. And

16:58

they let me in early. So I walked in, and the

17:00

Vice President and President were over by the window talking to

17:02

each other. And I overheard

17:05

Vice President Biden say, are you

17:08

sure about this Raj Shah guy? He's

17:10

like 30-something. He's new to Washington. He just

17:13

got here. And we have

17:15

this amazing leader who runs our

17:17

Federal Emergency Management Agency, Craig Fugate,

17:19

who's got a lot more experience

17:22

overseeing these kinds of complex responses.

17:25

And thankfully, President Obama saw me when I walked in

17:27

and kind of walked over and was like, Raj, come

17:29

in. Sit down. And the next

17:32

thing I know, the room was full with

17:34

half the cabinet that was in the meeting.

17:37

And I just went right into

17:39

the briefing and the numbers and the tasks

17:41

in front of us and didn't really think

17:43

that much about that statement, although

17:45

I was anxious about it. And

17:48

then on the way out, I

17:50

kind of stayed behind and talked

17:52

to Craig Fugate, who ran FEMA.

17:55

And I put my arm around Craig, and I said, Craig, I

17:57

need all the help you can give me because you do have

17:59

more experience. experience than I do. And

18:01

we have to do this together to succeed because

18:03

it's such a huge undertaking. And you

18:06

know, he's such a great guy. He was like,

18:08

absolutely. This is a moment where our country needs

18:10

us. I will come back with

18:12

you to your building. And the

18:14

lesson I write about in the book from

18:16

that story is called Open

18:18

the Turnstiles, because when we got back to

18:20

our building, the USAID folks could get in,

18:23

but the folks from the military services and

18:25

Craig and the FEMA team could not. They

18:27

had to stand in line. And

18:29

we together convinced our security team to

18:31

just open the gates and let people

18:33

in and out for a

18:35

few weeks while we were trying to

18:38

organize ourselves and have an inclusive, all

18:40

of government approach to the response. And

18:42

once we created that culture of one

18:44

team, I just saw the best of

18:46

America's public servants, whether they were in

18:48

the military or not, come

18:50

together and ultimately mount an

18:52

extraordinary response. We pulled more than 120

18:54

people out of the rubble

18:57

through these urban search and rescue teams that

18:59

literally saved their lives. We were feeding more

19:01

than 3 million people. Six

19:03

months after the earthquake, there was less diarrheal

19:06

disease and infectious disease in Port-au-Prince than there

19:08

was the day before, because

19:10

we had stood up water and sanitation,

19:12

food distribution and transitional housing in certain

19:15

contexts. So you

19:17

can succeed in those

19:19

moments of critical need if you're

19:21

willing to take all the help you can get. This

19:24

was one of the multiple fronts of hope

19:26

that I felt reading your book, which is

19:28

that one area in which

19:30

a lot of people are discouraged is the capacity of

19:32

government to get things done. And as

19:35

you say, there might have been an element of

19:37

the benefit of a crisis here in allowing you

19:39

to cut through red tape and

19:42

rally a whole bunch of resources to move very

19:44

quickly. Do you think that

19:46

most Americans have a false perception that

19:49

government agencies are bloated and ineffective? I

19:51

mean, you must have pushed up against

19:53

some frustrations in your time in government,

19:55

but it seems like you had

19:59

a pretty sanguine view of what government is

20:01

capable of doing. Yeah,

20:03

I think both are probably true, right? So

20:05

I like the day

20:07

to day bureaucracy of government can

20:09

be very, very, very challenging to

20:12

deal with. But in moments

20:14

like the Haiti earthquake, I also write in

20:16

the book about the Ebola crisis, which was

20:18

a pandemic, it could have been a global

20:20

pandemic, but wasn't. In those

20:23

moments of urgent crisis and need,

20:25

people stand up, people go the

20:27

extra mile, folks figure out how

20:30

to overcome red tape. I

20:32

was amazed by people's genuine

20:34

desire to make a difference. I think that's

20:36

why most people get into public service. And

20:38

when you can tap into that desire

20:41

to do the right thing at the

20:43

right moment, I think you can motivate

20:46

extraordinary leadership from folks in

20:48

public service and frankly, in

20:50

all walks of life. Of course, you

20:52

also got into the thicket of politics, right?

20:54

I think it was a year into your

20:56

time at USAID that

20:59

the Republicans had a proposal to

21:01

strike the budget to zero. And

21:06

how did you respond to that? My

21:08

initial response was, oh, we're going to approach

21:10

this with the toolkit that got me here,

21:12

which was deep data analytics and, and

21:15

nerding out on on the quantitative stuff. And

21:17

so we did this analysis, we determined that

21:20

shutting down these health programs in particular would

21:22

lead to 70,000 deaths

21:25

of children around the world in countries

21:27

where we were doing our work. And

21:30

I went up to Capitol Hill and I said that

21:32

the head of the US

21:34

Agency of International Development, Rajeev

21:37

Shah, is now saying that

21:39

Republican budget cuts will kill

21:41

at least 70,000 children around the world. And

21:45

then I got back to my office, and

21:47

a friend called Tom Vilsack, who is our Secretary

21:49

of Agriculture, and he said, Raj, I was just

21:51

with the Speaker of the House, John Vayner, and

21:54

he's upset with what you said. And

21:57

he spent a lot of his efforts trying

21:59

to quietly build Republican

22:01

support to get a budget

22:03

for humanitarian action abroad, and

22:06

he thinks this is going to undermine his

22:08

efforts. So you should come up here and

22:10

speak to him and apologize. And

22:12

so I did. I went

22:14

up there. I said I didn't

22:17

intend to be off-putting. I was just trying

22:19

to communicate data. And he gave

22:21

me a list of 2030 members

22:23

of Congress, House and Senate, to go

22:26

speak to and get to know. And

22:28

over the next weeks, I did. And

22:31

that, in fact, helped me learn that

22:33

it wasn't going to be data

22:35

or public argumentation that was going

22:37

to build a bipartisan coalition

22:40

to allow America to lead these

22:42

humanitarian efforts. It was going to

22:44

be sitting with folks behind closed

22:47

doors, talking about our values,

22:49

being vulnerable, praying together,

22:52

making friends across the aisle with

22:54

some very unlikely bedfellows. And

22:57

that ultimately made a huge difference

22:59

for both that budget, but more

23:01

importantly, for my tenure over

23:03

many years in Washington. In

23:06

the book, you're very positive

23:08

about, I think, the potential, both

23:10

the history and the

23:12

future potential for Republicans

23:15

and Democrats to come together

23:17

to support initiatives that alleviate

23:19

suffering. I mean,

23:21

we're living right now in a time

23:23

of increasing partisanship and polarity.

23:27

Are you discouraged by that, or

23:29

you feel like there's a clear path

23:31

forward to pull together to do

23:33

important things? You know, I see it

23:36

as a challenge. I see it as a

23:38

leadership challenge, that when you can build

23:40

bridges, often behind

23:42

closed doors, and almost always by

23:44

genuinely getting to know people based

23:47

on their vulnerabilities and values, not

23:50

the stuff you see on TV, you

23:52

can make real progress. And

23:54

if you look at our country just in

23:57

the last several years across Trump and

23:59

Biden administrations, We've actually

24:01

had some big bipartisan efforts to

24:03

invest in our economy and create

24:05

a social floor under

24:07

vulnerable families during COVID. Twice

24:09

that was passed under President Trump on

24:11

a bipartisan basis. We've passed the largest

24:14

effort to reduce child poverty in this

24:16

country and the child tax credit that

24:19

passed as well in that context. President

24:21

Biden has of course passed two huge

24:23

pieces of bipartisan legislation to

24:26

reinvest in American manufacturing and

24:28

semiconductors in particular and

24:30

to green our economy through broad

24:33

investments in infrastructure all across

24:35

this country. It

24:37

happens and we just don't talk about it.

24:40

What gets everybody's attention is the fighting

24:42

and the bickering and the drama and

24:44

that I think is unfortunate but

24:46

I'm super optimistic that with

24:49

the right leaders and the right mindset

24:51

we can actually make huge progress if

24:53

we approach it by

24:55

knowing we have to do it

24:57

together. And your optimism is not

24:59

just a natural disposition or a

25:02

neurochemical tendency. It's

25:06

based on what you've seen in the last few decades. It's

25:09

also based on being with people who

25:11

are not like me and traveling

25:15

with very conservative Republicans and getting to

25:17

learn their values and understanding okay maybe they're

25:19

not going to use the phrase climate

25:22

change but they'll support our

25:25

efforts to help farmers adapt to

25:27

climate change if they talk to

25:29

farmers and the farmers say hey we're not

25:31

able to feed our families and grow food

25:33

because it's hotter and drier. And

25:35

so having been through that I

25:38

believe there's more common space if

25:41

we really put effort and energy into it

25:43

than most people see. Yeah

25:45

because I mean when you look at things

25:47

like not a single

25:50

Republican in Congress voting for Biden's

25:52

2022 climate bill those

25:54

are the kind of headlines that cause people to

25:56

feel a sense of despair. Yeah agreed. Agreed. Yeah.

26:00

going to be, you know, is going to be visible

26:03

bipartisanship, right? But

26:05

some things can be, and those are

26:07

the ones we have to find and

26:09

pursue much more aggressively. nat.com Back

26:12

to the topic of the great work

26:14

that USAID has done. Many

26:17

Americans have an isolationist impulse, right?

26:20

And I think sometimes the thinking

26:22

is there are people suffering here.

26:25

Why should we be solving other countries' problems

26:28

before we solve our own? What

26:30

do you say to those people? Well,

26:32

most people also think we're spending 10

26:34

to 20% of our federal

26:36

budget solving other people's problems around the

26:38

world. When in reality we're spending less

26:41

than 1%. And so

26:43

as I've gone through communities, rural

26:45

communities in Montana, urban black churches

26:47

in Detroit and San Francisco, and

26:49

sort of sat with people and

26:51

explained, look, we're spending less than

26:54

1% of our federal budget. For

26:56

that, we have largely

26:59

tamped down an AIDS crisis

27:01

that was killing tens of millions of

27:03

people. We've

27:05

saved 16, 20 million children through vaccination

27:07

efforts. We beat back an Ebola crisis

27:09

that was supposed to have hundreds of

27:11

thousands of cases in the United States

27:13

and only had two because

27:16

we took the fight to West Africa

27:18

and succeeded in a difficult and

27:20

highly contentious environment. And

27:22

we have always been, especially since World War

27:25

II, the world's unquestioned

27:28

humanitarian leader, mostly

27:30

preventing humanitarian catastrophes

27:32

that prevent instances

27:35

of political instability or migration that then

27:37

require our troops to go in. When

27:39

people see and hear that and they

27:42

hear the military leaders in this country

27:44

talk about how important this is as

27:46

a forward defense of our national security,

27:49

they know that it's both a small price

27:51

to pay and it's one that is so

27:53

consistent with our values that we should

27:55

likely be doing more. In fact, you know what they tend

27:57

to say? They'll say, oh, we're only doing a

27:59

half of one. or three quarters of one

28:01

percent of the federal budget, we should probably be

28:03

doing three or four or five percent, maybe 10

28:05

percent. And

28:08

it's just a matter of communicating that.

28:10

And it's also a matter of implementing

28:12

these programs using this Big

28:14

Bet mindset, you know, measuring results,

28:17

being honest about what's working, what's not

28:19

working. When I ran USAID, I shut

28:21

down more than 300 programs,

28:23

which was deeply controversial, but it helped on

28:26

both sides of the political spectrum. People see that we

28:29

were going to take results measurement and

28:31

performance seriously. And

28:34

when you say they recommend increasing from shy

28:37

of one percent to two, three, five

28:39

percent or more of our

28:41

federal budget for foreign aid, you're saying

28:43

that military leaders have that view. Absolutely.

28:47

They have absolutely said that over

28:49

and over again. For one

28:52

to two percent of the cost of the Afghan war,

28:54

we were educating eight million

28:56

Afghan girls. We were protecting

28:58

the rights of women. We

29:00

were supporting a democratic process

29:03

that gave local communities more voice.

29:06

And we were ensuring that Afghan farmers

29:08

had access to markets and real ability

29:10

to provide for their communities. Now, that's

29:13

you're not going to win a war

29:15

that way, but you certainly have

29:17

no exit strategy if you don't

29:19

succeed with those types of efforts.

29:21

And they really are super marginal

29:24

in terms of their cost structure.

29:27

And just think about the Korean

29:29

Peninsula. After

29:32

the Korean War, we helped South

29:34

Korea become a modern economy. At

29:36

that time, South Korea had

29:38

a higher rate of hunger, a

29:40

higher rate of displacement, and a higher

29:42

rate of infectious disease leading to under

29:44

five child mortality than most

29:46

of Africa. We

29:48

helped that country transform itself into a

29:50

modern economy. Today, there are more jobs

29:53

in America created by trading with South

29:55

Korea than there are trading with France.

29:58

And compare that to North Korea. right

30:00

across the border, you know, a country

30:02

that is an obvious threat. We spend

30:05

tens of billions, that's probably

30:07

an underestimate, deterring North Korea.

30:10

There's no question that the

30:12

long-term security of our nation

30:15

depends on projecting dignity

30:17

and opportunity around the

30:19

world. And the more we

30:22

can do that efficiently and effectively

30:24

and with transparency and results, the

30:26

better off Americans are. The

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to learn more. I

31:07

think it could be useful to expand on your

31:10

thesis with the Big Bet mindset and what

31:12

big bets are about. We just

31:14

a few weeks ago had James Clear on the

31:16

show talking about his book, Atomic Habits, which

31:19

sort of makes the case that like the best

31:21

way to improve your life is to make small

31:23

incremental changes and build on those over time. You

31:25

seem to be making the case that when we're,

31:28

if we're setting out to change the world or

31:30

rally people at scale together,

31:33

there's an argument for doing things that are

31:35

ambitious. Is that the core of it? What's

31:38

the case here? Yeah, I think that is

31:41

the core of it, that bold, large scale

31:43

change is possible. And when we set the

31:45

goals boldly and we have focus

31:48

on the three main components of a big

31:50

bet, which are fresh, innovative

31:52

solutions that allow those, that

31:54

goal achievement to be achievable

31:56

and realistic, unlikely partners

31:59

in a lion. instances that come

32:01

together to deliver that outcome and

32:04

an absolute determination to measure results

32:06

and persist. I think when

32:08

we do those things in the context of

32:10

big bets, we can achieve great things. The

32:13

interesting reality is, as we try to do

32:15

that, ultimately what you're

32:17

doing are a series of small

32:19

incremental actions that ladder

32:21

up and add up to something

32:24

transformational. So when we ran the

32:26

Ebola response in West Africa, the

32:29

CDC estimated we'd have 1.4 million cases.

32:32

Seven out of 10 people were dying when they

32:34

contracted the virus. We didn't

32:36

know how to beat back that

32:38

virus technically at the time

32:40

that President Obama made his big bet, which

32:42

was for the first time in history deploying

32:44

thousands of American troops in an

32:46

effort to fight a disease. What

32:49

we actually did that worked was

32:52

the small incremental things that were

32:54

enabled by that big bet, which

32:56

were listening to local community members,

32:59

observing that girls and women in particular

33:02

were contracting the virus when they were

33:04

washing and redressing the bodies of

33:07

deceased family members, and

33:09

recognizing that if we intervened at that point,

33:11

we could save lives. A

33:14

local community came together and

33:16

designed this burial team that was fully

33:18

clad in protective equipment. They

33:20

used WHO body bags to keep

33:22

the body safe and separate

33:24

from others, then performed rituals

33:27

and ceremonies to honor those individuals who

33:29

passed, and then removed the body safely.

33:31

And that allowed for a 70% reduction

33:35

in case transmission. We scaled that up

33:37

across three countries, and instead of

33:39

1.4 million cases, we had 30,000. And

33:42

instead of hundreds of thousands of cases in Europe and the

33:44

United States, we had two with no

33:46

transmission on U.S. soil. So

33:49

it was a big bet, but ultimately

33:51

it's the small incremental things that

33:53

you do within the context of a bold

33:55

aspiration that make the difference. other

34:00

countries when it comes to big bets.

34:02

I mean, we think of like the

34:04

New Deal and you know, huge bets

34:06

we've made historically. You know, you could

34:08

go all the way back to Abraham

34:10

Lincoln signing the Pacific Railway Act in

34:13

1862, like right in the middle of

34:15

the Civil War, right? Because of this

34:17

big bet of building a transcontinental railroad

34:19

was something that could bring the nation

34:21

together. But now, and I think

34:23

of big bets globally, I often think of things

34:25

like, you know, France

34:27

turning Paris into the world's

34:29

greenest city, or China carrying

34:31

out these massive development projects,

34:33

or Lula in Brazil working

34:36

to end deforestation in the Amazon. Do

34:39

you think we have a big bet mentality in the

34:41

US right now? I think we

34:43

can nurture one. I do see, I mean,

34:45

I met the Rockefeller Foundation. We do big

34:47

bets for humanity here in the United States

34:49

and around the world. And that

34:51

means I get to be exposed to people who are

34:54

making big bets happen all the time.

34:57

And I think your examples are outstanding

34:59

examples. You know, my favorite Lincoln big

35:01

bet example is he signed

35:03

the Morrill Act to create

35:05

America's land grant universities to

35:08

invest in agriculture and

35:10

agricultural research during the Civil War

35:12

as well. And to have that

35:14

kind of a vision to say, okay, you

35:16

know, to be a thriving country

35:19

over the long term, agriculture was

35:21

the economy, we need to

35:23

invest in our source of competitiveness, even

35:26

as we're fighting an existential threat

35:28

to our very existence. I

35:30

mean, that takes real vision and real purpose. And

35:33

I see leaders with real vision and real purpose

35:35

all the time. And I tried to write about

35:37

them in the book. I wrote about Mayor

35:40

Mitch Landrieu and his efforts to take

35:42

down Confederate statues in New Orleans and

35:44

start a national movement about racial dialogue

35:46

and justice. I just, I can go

35:48

on and on about the leadership I

35:50

see that gives me hope that we

35:52

can make big bets happen in this

35:54

country. Yeah. Well,

35:57

turning to some of your current

35:59

work. trying to alleviate

36:02

electricity poverty around the world. Electricity

36:06

is a critical piece of

36:08

solving global poverty. Could

36:10

you help us understand why that's

36:12

true? Well, if you

36:14

think about it, you know, we depend

36:17

on electricity all day

36:19

long to turn our labor

36:21

into productivity, economic

36:24

growth, goods and services, and

36:27

opportunity for job creation and human

36:29

improvement in every community around the

36:31

planet. And the basic

36:33

way we've provided electricity to communities

36:36

for 150 years has

36:38

been burn fossil fuels in large

36:41

plants, connect that to grid systems

36:43

and connect those grids to homes

36:45

and businesses and see what happens. And

36:48

that effort, which has obviously transformed

36:50

the face of the human condition

36:52

over time, has also left

36:54

out a lot of people. There

36:57

are almost a billion people who live and

36:59

consume less than one, less

37:01

electricity per day than it takes to

37:04

power one light bulb and one small

37:06

home appliance. And those are the

37:08

billion we call energy poor. And

37:10

the truth is big coal plants

37:12

connected to grids are likely never to

37:14

reach them for a variety of reasons,

37:16

partly because they're not politically powerful and

37:18

they're very poor. So people don't

37:21

think they can pay for it. But

37:23

we have found that new

37:25

renewable technology, solar mini grids

37:28

tied to grids that

37:30

connect to people's homes and businesses and

37:32

then they can pay by smart texting,

37:35

we found that those types of

37:37

solutions are now working very, very

37:39

effectively to help these communities join

37:42

the modern global economy and have real

37:45

opportunity instead of being trapped in poverty.

37:47

So we made our big

37:49

bet reaching a billion people who

37:51

live in energy poverty with

37:54

renewable technology. And that's

37:56

creating wealth, creating jobs and creating

37:58

opportunities. My favorite. My favorite example

38:00

was when I walked into

38:02

a school in a village in Northern Bihar,

38:05

and they told me that this school used

38:07

to just be boys during the

38:09

day, and girls in this community were not

38:11

going to school. And

38:13

now that they have power

38:15

24-7, always reliable, we

38:17

can light the school and use that lighting to

38:19

give girls a chance to go to school in

38:22

the evenings. And if we

38:24

can replicate that in Eastern Congo,

38:26

in parts of South Africa, in

38:28

Northern Nigeria, we can literally

38:30

replace places that are

38:33

suffering from extreme poverty and all the instability

38:35

that comes with that, with places

38:37

that are characterized by hope and optimism.

38:39

And that's our goal. It

38:42

sounds like we've made a lot

38:44

of progress in the last decade, thanks

38:46

to your efforts and those of

38:49

many others. And there's reason

38:51

for hope here. On the other

38:53

hand, global warming, climate

38:55

change is obviously a massive

38:58

concern that has the potential

39:00

to make global inequality far

39:02

worse. How pessimistic versus

39:04

optimistic are you in this front? What

39:07

do you think are the prospects of

39:09

reversing or mitigating the impacts of climate

39:11

change? Well, look, we

39:14

don't have a choice. We have to get

39:16

this right. And just to put what you

39:18

just said in stark relief, when

39:20

I started working on hunger and poverty

39:22

in rural South India 25 years ago,

39:25

there were probably about 14 or so

39:27

percent of

39:31

the total global population experienced

39:33

hunger, not getting 2,000 calories

39:36

of nutrition a day. That

39:39

came down to 6% or 7% just

39:41

a couple of years ago. And now that's

39:43

going up. And the estimates are we'll

39:45

be back up at 14% again

39:48

with a much larger global economy in

39:51

15 to 20 years because of climate

39:53

change. And it

39:55

will single-handedly undo decades

39:58

of progress in... lifting

40:00

communities up and out of poverty.

40:02

And it will create the kind

40:04

of migration, insecurity and

40:06

conflict that will define our future if

40:08

we don't get this right. Of course,

40:11

there's an injustice to the fact that

40:13

the wealthiest countries in the world have

40:15

built massive economies with fossil

40:17

fuels over the course of

40:20

a century or more. And now

40:22

we're reprimanding low-income

40:25

countries for doing so.

40:27

On the other hand, I can see

40:29

an argument that there's an opportunity to skip, I

40:31

mean, not on life with cell phones, skipping

40:33

landlines and going straight to cell phones because

40:36

of the technological opportunity. There could be an

40:38

opportunity for many of these regions

40:41

to skip the fossil fuel

40:43

stage of development. I guess

40:45

that's what you all have been trying to accelerate.

40:48

Well, that opportunity is exactly what we're trying

40:50

to accelerate and to do it in a

40:52

way that gives more equity

40:54

and inclusion to these

40:56

countries themselves and communities within them. So

40:58

we're helping India, for

41:01

example, transition and invest in

41:03

building 50,000 electric buses

41:07

so that municipalities there can shift

41:09

from diesel buses to electric buses.

41:11

That'll also help create energy storage

41:13

that can be used for their

41:15

grids as they work to green

41:17

their economy. We're rolling out 10,000

41:20

of these rural mini-grids in

41:22

Nigeria, which will replace dirty diesel

41:25

generators that are both more expensive,

41:27

more dangerous, more complicated, crushing

41:30

their economic prospects and

41:32

polluting the atmosphere. So it's

41:34

not just asking them to take

41:36

on an additional responsibility, it's actually

41:39

finding opportunities for growth and

41:41

opportunities that are not being

41:44

serviced by a fossil fuel-based

41:46

development strategy. Most

41:57

ideas bounce off us. But

42:01

some actually change us. If

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43:09

Raj, coming back to your personal journey, you

43:11

had a relatively brief stint

43:13

in the private sector, right? You

43:15

were so passionate about this

43:18

problem of energy poverty that you saw an

43:21

opportunity to help to solve this

43:23

problem while building an exciting startup,

43:26

and maybe making some money in the

43:28

process. And at some point

43:30

you found yourself in a, I

43:33

think this story is helpful, Raj, because there may be

43:35

some listeners who are thinking, this guy's just a saint.

43:38

He's just a perfect human being. And

43:40

I'm just trying to, you know, put food on the

43:42

table and help my kids with their homework. But

43:46

just to let our listeners know that you're not

43:48

always a saint. Not at all a saint.

43:51

You found yourself on the verge of

43:53

buying a very expensive watch in

43:56

a luxury watch store during this

43:59

private sector. bender that you had

44:01

as a word. How do you think about that

44:03

and how do you think about your own journey,

44:06

about thinking about working in philanthropy

44:08

versus private sector and your own

44:10

motivations and what lights you up?

44:13

You know, I'm not judgmental about

44:15

others and what they choose. And

44:17

I find it can be super

44:19

fun to be in government. It

44:21

can be super rewarding to be

44:23

at a philanthropic institution like Rockefeller.

44:26

And it can be just as exciting and

44:29

interesting in the private sector. So I did have

44:31

a small private equity firm for a short while

44:33

when I left government. And the goal was to

44:35

build energy systems in emerging

44:38

economies. And we were fortunate to have

44:40

some extraordinary backers and supporters

44:42

that were helping us make that happen. But

44:45

what I did learn about myself was, you

44:47

know, if I spend a lot of time

44:49

with folks who are thinking about,

44:51

you know, how to make more money, which

44:53

is a legitimate thing

44:56

to think about, then I start to think

44:58

about that, you know. And if I'm with

45:00

people who are talking about

45:03

fancy watches, then I start thinking about fancy watches. So

45:05

the story I told in the book was I

45:08

was, as a gift to my wife, going to get

45:10

her an expensive, elegant watch

45:12

from some airport in Europe.

45:15

And just before making the final purchase, I called

45:17

her to just make sure this was the kind

45:19

she would like. And she

45:22

was like, gosh, she was at

45:24

that time, she was running a charter school for

45:27

kids in Washington, D.C., who had very

45:30

little resources and very tough circumstances. And

45:32

all her passion was going into that.

45:34

And she's like, what would make

45:36

you think that I want to, you know, wear

45:39

a Rolex into my school

45:41

every day? And it just kind of snapped

45:43

me out of being

45:45

absorbed by what I was seeing right around

45:47

me and reminded me that, at least in

45:49

the case of myself and my wife, Schieven,

45:51

we had made some judgments

45:54

that we wanted to have careers that

45:56

were more in the social service space.

45:59

And that's just, that's just who we are.

46:01

So I'm by no means a saint,

46:03

and I'm as prone

46:05

to all the things that everybody else

46:07

is, but that was a moment

46:09

when she helped snap me back into a place

46:13

that was better for us. Well,

46:16

it strikes me that the advice in your

46:19

book, all the lessons from your book, we've

46:21

talked about some of them, you know, ask

46:23

a simple question, open the turnstiles. You

46:25

talk about like making it personal,

46:28

you know, willingness to give up

46:30

control and partnership with other people. So

46:32

much of it, I think, is actually

46:34

quite applicable to the private

46:36

sector. I mean, as a serial

46:38

entrepreneur, I found myself nodding my

46:40

head and taking notes in

46:43

quite a few places. Do you feel that way? Do you

46:45

think that a lot of these

46:47

learnings are applicable to all areas?

46:50

I think so. I think, you know,

46:52

when you're taking risks and trying to

46:54

do big bold things and trying

46:56

to do it in a responsible way, and

46:59

focused on data and performance

47:02

and adjustments you make, the skill

47:04

set is probably fairly similar, whether you're,

47:07

you know, in social service or in

47:10

a private company or certainly for entrepreneurs

47:12

and people with entrepreneurial instincts. So,

47:15

you know, make it personal was really about getting

47:18

to know people and being vulnerable people with

47:20

people so you can get to know their

47:22

values and their interests and their long-term aspirations.

47:25

That, to me, is a management tool

47:27

that you can use in almost any

47:30

capacity to just have stronger relationships with

47:32

the people with whom you

47:34

work and collaborate. Keep

47:36

experimenting was how I described the lesson

47:38

learned from the Ebola crisis because we didn't know what we were

47:41

going to work and we had to test it. But

47:43

gosh, I would think in any company,

47:45

you're experimenting with products and strategies and

47:48

approaches and you want to have fast

47:51

data telling you whether you're succeeding or

47:53

failing quickly so you can make adjustments

47:55

and go forward. So, I

47:58

think the playbook that we've tried to outline in

48:00

the book hopefully is very applicable

48:02

to people who are in the

48:04

private sector. Wonderful. Well,

48:06

Raj, there are many studies that have

48:08

documented that generous people

48:11

tend to be happier. Actually,

48:13

of course, Adam Grant wrote this book Give and Take, which

48:15

is all about this. Now, if this

48:17

is true, you must be

48:19

a very happy person because you've really

48:22

– you've dedicated your life really

48:24

to trying to solve problems

48:27

at scale, alleviate suffering. Are

48:30

you a happy person? I

48:34

try my best. I'm

48:37

happier after I've read one of Adam's books,

48:39

for example, and have the

48:41

sense that they're tools you can use

48:43

to keep working on it. I think

48:45

happiness is something everyone has

48:48

to work on regularly and

48:50

get help from others in doing so.

48:53

Sure, I'm very fortunate. I feel very

48:55

lucky to have had the chances I've

48:58

had. I have a wonderful family with

49:00

amazing kids, and I have lots of

49:02

reasons to be happy. But

49:05

at the same time, I probably have the same

49:07

struggles anyone else does, and

49:09

I think learning how to be happy takes

49:11

genuine discipline and effort. I read about it

49:13

a lot, and I try to do the

49:16

things that I learn about in some of

49:18

those books, but I have to work

49:20

at it just like anybody else. Well,

49:23

I like the idea that generosity

49:25

and kindness is part of that

49:27

pathway. Well, I think it is.

49:30

And I'll tell you a story.

49:32

When I was at USAID and

49:34

traveling around the country to make the

49:37

case for America's broader role in the

49:39

world, I went to a

49:41

service at a church in Detroit, and I sat

49:43

with a group of

49:46

women who were taking up a collection

49:48

for an orphanage in Rwanda. This

49:51

was a community where folks didn't have a

49:53

lot of extra resources, but

49:56

every week they came together and they made

49:58

a collection and they... We ensured that it

50:00

got to this orphanage in

50:03

Rwanda. And I

50:05

went back to my office and I said,

50:07

we're going to make sure that orphanage gets

50:09

electricity and water and food supplies and other

50:12

recognition. But that story

50:14

just stays with me because generosity

50:17

is not necessarily

50:20

just super wealthy people giving. It's

50:23

what we do day to day to express

50:25

our values. And those women in that

50:27

church taught me a

50:29

lot about generosity. Well,

50:33

Raj, thank you for doing all that

50:35

you've done in your career that you're

50:37

continuing to do and for writing this

50:39

book and inspiring all of us to

50:42

make Big Bets. It's fantastic. Such

50:44

an interesting conversation. Thank

50:46

you so much, Rufus. It's just great to be with you. Raj

50:52

Shah's new book, the first of many, I hope,

50:55

is titled Big Bets, How Large

50:57

Scale Change Really Happens. I

51:00

hope this conversation has inspired you to

51:03

make a Big Bet of your own. If

51:05

it has, but you need a little guidance on how to

51:07

pull it off, send me an

51:09

email, tell me what your Big Bet is.

51:12

And if you're one of the first three people

51:14

I hear from, I'll mail you a copy of

51:16

Raj's book. I'm

51:18

at podcast at

51:20

nextbigideaclub.com. The

51:22

next big idea is a proud member of

51:25

the LinkedIn Podcast Network, a

51:27

Big Bet by the good folks at LinkedIn

51:29

to share life-changing ideas with millions of people

51:31

around the world. Today's

51:33

episode was written and produced by Caleb

51:35

Bissinger. Sound designed by Mike Toda.

51:38

I'm Rufus Griskim. See you next week. you