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this is Tori from Orange County, California.

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I'm trying to manage our calendar of chaos before

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podcast was recorded at 1 11

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OK, here's the show. Oh,

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now as my kids were coloring their teacher

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Kids Fest and an AAPI potluck lunch at

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school. It is that time of

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in that last six weeks of school. It is

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like it's all like just comes at the same

1:00

time. Hey, there, it's the

1:02

NPR Politics podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

1:04

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House and

1:07

I'm Greg Mirey. I cover national security. And

1:10

President Biden is now threatening to cut

1:12

off weapons shipments to Israel if they

1:14

go forward with a full scale assault

1:16

on the city of Rafa in southern

1:18

Gaza, where over one million people are

1:20

currently sheltering. Here's Biden speaking to CNN

1:22

last night. If they go into

1:24

Rafa, they haven't gone on Rafa yet. If

1:26

they go into Rafa, I'm not

1:29

supplying the weapons that have been used historically

1:31

to deal with Rafa, to deal with the

1:33

cities, to deal with that problem. This

1:35

comes a week after Biden paused a shipment

1:37

of bombs to Israel over concerns of how

1:39

they might be used in Rafa. Tam,

1:42

why this decision and why now? The

1:44

White House was quite concerned about preparations

1:47

that were being made, rhetoric that was

1:50

coming out of Israel, about

1:52

plans for a full scale ground

1:54

assault on Rafa. And they have

1:57

been warning Israel, warning Netanyahu. privately

2:00

saying many of the things that

2:02

Biden then said publicly last night

2:04

in this CNN interview and

2:06

to little apparent effect. And

2:09

in terms of the weapons that a

2:11

shipment of which has been paused, it's some 3,000

2:14

bombs, the White House

2:16

said and the President said, they did

2:18

not want those weapons used on civilians

2:20

in Rafa. I mean,

2:23

Ken, this also comes as it seems

2:25

like ceasefire talks are not going well.

2:27

That's right. I guess the

2:29

CIA director had been in Cairo taking

2:31

part in talks. I was

2:33

told that he was the highest level

2:36

official there though, trying to secure this

2:38

quite elusive temporary ceasefire that would also

2:40

secure the release of Israeli

2:42

hostages. And he's

2:45

now headed back. A few days ago,

2:47

White House spokesman John Kirby had been

2:49

quite optimistic about the ability to bridge

2:51

the gaps between Israel and Hamas. And

2:54

today I said, hey, what happened to your

2:56

optimism? He's like, well, you know, it

2:59

could still happen. People are

3:01

still talking. But the optimism just

3:03

isn't where it was a few days ago.

3:05

There have been many cycles of this sort

3:07

of fits and starts of

3:10

these talks. Greg, I want to ask you about

3:12

the military impact here. But before we

3:14

get to that, could you paint a picture

3:16

of what exactly is happening in and

3:18

around Rafa right now and sort of how

3:21

this invasion relates to the broader Israel-Hamas war,

3:23

which is now seven months in? Sure.

3:26

So Rafa is right on the border,

3:28

hard on the border with Egypt. It's

3:30

the one city Israel has not gone

3:32

into with its military yet. It's basically

3:34

taken over the rest of Gaza. And

3:37

Israel had been talking about a Rafa invasion

3:39

for about three months or more now. On

3:42

Monday night, Tuesday morning, they did send

3:44

some tanks to the Rafa border crossing

3:47

with Egypt and quickly took that over.

3:49

Now, this is on the southeast edge

3:51

of the city. So it seems like

3:53

it's a limited operation at this point.

3:56

Israel is in full control of this

3:58

border crossing. It's very significant. This is

4:00

the main place that aid, humanitarian

4:02

aid, food, medicine, fuel, is coming

4:04

into Gaza from Egypt. And as

4:07

we know, not enough is getting

4:09

in. And now this Rafa border

4:11

crossing is closed. So

4:13

we've got this issue of how this

4:16

could affect humanitarian aid, but also the

4:18

prospect that Israel may conduct a larger

4:20

operation in Rafa itself. This

4:23

is the last Hamas stronghold. It's believed

4:25

to have several thousand fighters there. Greg,

4:28

is it fair to sort of surmise

4:30

from Biden's decision-making here that the

4:33

U.S. just doesn't have confidence

4:35

that Israel can conduct this invasion

4:37

without unnecessarily high

4:40

civilian casualties? That's the

4:42

main point. Certainly the Biden

4:44

administration has said, look, more than 30,000 Palestinians

4:47

have been killed, many of them

4:49

civilians. This is unacceptable. And now

4:52

you have more than a million

4:54

Palestinians squeezed in and around

4:56

Rafa and the southern edge of

4:58

Gaza. If you conduct a large

5:00

ground operation there in particular, we're

5:03

looking at some very bloody urban

5:05

fighting. The civilian casualty toll is

5:07

likely to be extremely high. And

5:09

that's why the Biden administration has

5:11

been stressing this both in public comments

5:13

and privately to Israel. John

5:15

Kirby said something today that really stood out to me.

5:17

He said, our view is that

5:20

Rafa operations, any kind of major Rafa

5:22

ground operation, would actually strengthen Hamas's hand

5:24

at the negotiating table and not Israel's.

5:26

And I pressed him on what he

5:28

meant. And he said, you know, if

5:30

you're the leader of Hamas in a

5:32

tunnel somewhere under Rafa

5:35

and you see civilians dying

5:37

in this major operation, that

5:40

further turns the international tide against

5:43

Israel and you are winning. Hamas

5:45

is winning. Greg, if President Biden

5:47

keeps his word here, if these

5:50

weapons do not get sent to

5:52

Israel, if they withhold bomb shipments

5:54

from a military standpoint, how does

5:56

that affect Israel? Well,

5:58

in the short term, I'd say probably very

6:00

little if at all. Now

6:02

these are bombs that would be used

6:05

for airstrikes and the real issue with

6:07

Rafa is whether Israel is going to

6:09

conduct a major ground operation. So Israel

6:12

has been bombing Rafa from the air

6:14

in recent weeks. We typically

6:16

will get reports of 20 or 30 casualties a day,

6:20

civilians and militants. There's

6:22

no indication Israel is running short

6:24

of bombs to hit Rafa in

6:27

the short term. But what

6:29

is new this week is this incursion

6:31

to the border crossing and the

6:33

prospect that it could be a

6:35

much larger operation, heavy urban combat.

6:37

So Israel could do this with

6:40

tanks, armored personnel carriers, ground troops.

6:42

They have all that and that's

6:44

not what the US is withholding.

6:46

So I don't think that's the

6:48

issue but in the longer term

6:50

this could affect Israel which is

6:52

heavily dependent on US weaponry. I

6:55

mean Tam even if it does not have a

6:57

major impact in the short term this is a

7:00

hugely symbolic decision on the part

7:02

of a president who has very

7:04

publicly committed ironclad support from

7:06

the US for Israel. And he is

7:09

still committing ironclad support and the White

7:11

House is trying to dispute claims that

7:13

this means that Biden is turning his

7:15

back on Israel, claims that are coming

7:17

from people inside Israel and also from

7:20

many Republican politicians here in the US. But

7:24

you know this is a huge

7:26

shift. For months there

7:28

have been calls for the White

7:30

House to condition aid to Israel

7:32

on you know avoiding civilian casualties

7:35

or otherwise withhold arms.

7:37

And the Biden administration and

7:39

the president said no way we're not doing

7:41

that. Now what the White House would say

7:44

now is this is a pause and

7:46

also the US is

7:48

continuing to supply many defensive

7:51

weapons to Israel. That weapons

7:53

shipments writ large have not

7:55

been cut off and

7:58

that the US will still come to Israel's

8:00

defense as they did

8:02

on that night when Iran launched so

8:04

many drones and missiles towards Israel And

8:07

I would just add to Tam's point

8:09

there She noted the the

8:11

Iranian strike a while back Israel is

8:13

concerned about that and also its northern

8:15

border with Lebanon where Hezbollah has been

8:17

shooting and Israel has been responding So

8:20

while we're focused on Gaza here Hezbollah

8:22

in the north has a much larger

8:24

and more powerful arsenal So Israel may

8:26

have what it needs in the short

8:28

or even medium term to carry out

8:30

any operations at once to in Gaza

8:33

But if Hezbollah would unleash a full-fledged

8:35

war in the north Israel would need

8:38

a much larger Arsenal and a

8:40

much larger stockpile to wage that conflict at full

8:42

force. All right, let's take a quick break And

8:44

when we get back, we'll talk more on the

8:46

impact of this decision The

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Download the NPR app today. And

10:19

we're back. And Greg, how has Israel

10:22

responded to this decision? Defiance,

10:24

I think, in a word. Prime

10:26

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying

10:28

all along, well

10:31

before this, that if Israel is

10:33

forced to stand alone, it will,

10:35

that he'll stand up to any

10:38

pressure, even from the United States.

10:40

And just today, after Biden made

10:42

these remarks, the National Security Minister

10:45

in Israel, Idamar Ben Gevir, tweeted,

10:47

Hamas, heart emoji, Biden. Now, he's

10:49

one of the most extreme far-right

10:51

ministers in the Cabinet and one

10:53

of the most outspoken. And his

10:56

faction wants a major operation in

10:58

Rafah to fully defeat Hamas. And

11:00

it's threatening to leave the government

11:02

and bring down the coalition if

11:05

Netanyahu doesn't carry out this operation.

11:07

So in that sense, Netanyahu is

11:09

facing some pressure from both

11:11

sides. And others in the government,

11:14

the Israeli security establishment, are being defiant,

11:17

saying they'll do what they need to

11:19

do in Gaza, even if

11:21

that means increased friction

11:23

with the United States. Is there

11:25

any sense that this might

11:27

possibly change Israel's direction in

11:29

this war? As you've stated

11:31

many times, Netanyahu seems pretty

11:33

clear on his mission here. Well,

11:35

you know, we haven't seen that

11:38

yet. He's certainly gone against Biden's

11:40

wishes on several instances. The

11:42

consequences have been pretty minimal to non-existent.

11:44

But he's in this very tough spot

11:47

now. He will alienate

11:49

the Biden administration and the international community

11:51

if there is a large ground invasion

11:53

in Rafah. But if he doesn't push

11:55

ahead, he's going to face pressure from

11:57

his own coalition, his own government. government

12:00

could be a threat. They're

12:02

very mixed opinions inside Israel. There's

12:04

strong support for the war overall,

12:06

but hostage families want to get

12:09

the Israeli hostages released and support

12:11

a ceasefire. So he's taking

12:13

heat from multiple directions. AMT. And

12:16

the White House seems to be indicating that there

12:18

is ground between a massive

12:20

ground operation rolling tanks

12:23

into Rafah and

12:25

maybe targeting of Hamas leaders

12:27

or militants who are hiding

12:29

behind civilians there. It's not

12:31

clear to me though that

12:34

Israel sees it the same way and

12:36

discussions between the U.S. and Israel that

12:38

were supposed to happen about

12:41

Israel's plan and U.S. alternatives,

12:44

those discussions haven't really been happening in the

12:47

way that I think the White House wanted.

12:49

KEN. This is also not happening in

12:51

a vacuum. President Biden is running

12:53

for re-election. The handling

12:55

of U.S.-Israel relations has been

12:58

central to at least the Democratic

13:00

primary fight in that there has been

13:02

an uncommitted movement in some key

13:04

states and primaries so voters could voice

13:06

discontent with the president and how he's

13:09

handled this. He has

13:11

some self-interest here in his own political

13:13

interest in looking like he's taking a

13:15

stronger line against Israel. AMT. Yeah,

13:17

but pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel

13:19

is not going to satisfy Biden's critics on

13:22

the left and it is causing

13:25

his supporters who back Israel to

13:27

question his commitment to Israel. So

13:30

President Biden is in an impossible

13:32

position here. He is not in

13:34

control of what Israel does and

13:37

hasn't been. The

13:39

White House had been rooting in a

13:41

big way for a temporary ceasefire that

13:43

could lead to a more permanent ceasefire

13:45

and it just keeps being out

13:48

of reach. It's also created

13:51

more political division. Speaker Mike Johnson has

13:53

been very critical of Biden's announcement. He's

13:55

publicly said that it runs counter to

13:57

what senior White House officials are doing.

14:00

officials told him would be the White

14:02

House policy. And he spoke very critically

14:04

of the president just this morning on

14:06

CNBC. For Joe Biden to do

14:08

this, he is going against what he told

14:10

Congress, what his top officials in the White

14:12

House specifically told me that they would do,

14:15

and in its just catastrophic policy. Johnson

14:18

has extended an invitation from Tenet and

14:20

Yahoo to address Congress. Majority leader Chuck

14:22

Schumer has indicated he might support that

14:24

effort. So this just seems

14:27

like one of those issues where domestically,

14:29

politically, it could only get more complicated

14:31

as we get closer to the election.

14:33

I was talking to a Democratic congressman

14:35

about this, and he's like, you know,

14:38

America is already so divided. And then

14:40

you add this international crisis, and it

14:42

is just furthering the divisions. There

14:44

also seems to me to be, again, just

14:46

through the lens of politics here, a risk

14:48

for President Biden, because what if Israel just

14:50

ignores him? What if they just move forward

14:52

and it looks like the position of

14:54

the American president doesn't carry all that much weight?

14:57

He's on a high wire, and he has been

14:59

for months. And I don't know

15:01

how he gets off that high wire. We've been

15:03

talking about Rafah, which is sort of

15:05

the last place where Hamas still has

15:07

some level of control. But even if

15:09

Israel were to capture Rafah and effectively

15:11

have control over all of Gaza, we

15:14

really haven't breached the topic of what

15:16

comes next. Who is going to run

15:18

Gaza in the medium to long term?

15:20

Israel says it doesn't want to be

15:22

there, but there's no real alternative at

15:24

this point. All right. That is

15:26

it for us today. We'll be back tomorrow with

15:28

the Weekly Roundup. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

15:30

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And

15:33

I'm Greg Myry. I cover national security. And

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