0:00

Hi, this is Sarah in

0:02

Greenfield, Massachusetts. I am

0:04

making myself a grilled ham and cheese

0:06

sandwich for lunch. This

0:09

podcast was recorded at 955 a.m. On

0:11

Wednesday, April 10th, 2024. Things

0:16

may have changed by the time you hear it. Okay,

0:18

here's the show. Love

0:23

the audio work on that. I legitimately almost

0:25

forgot what time it was just from the sizzle.

0:27

Like it distracted me. So I haven't had breakfast

0:30

yet. And that's your stomach grumbling over there. Hey

0:34

there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles

0:36

Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley

0:38

Lopez. I also cover voting. I'm

0:40

Stephen Fowler. I cover politics. And today

0:42

we are zooming in on a single

0:44

congressional district in Alabama. After

0:46

the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Alabama's congressional

0:49

map discriminated against black voters, the remedy was

0:51

straightforward. Draw new boundaries to create a second

0:53

opportunity for those voters to elect a candidate

0:55

of their choice, a protection that was established

0:57

in the 1960s by the Voting Rights Act.

1:00

Today on the pod, we're going to see

1:02

how that's going. Stephen, you've been

1:04

looking at this new congressional district. Tell

1:06

me what it's like. Yeah, so Alabama's

1:08

second congressional district is this sprawling district

1:11

that runs from one corner of the

1:13

state to the other, Mobile

1:15

on the coast all the way to Montgomery

1:17

and includes the black belt in between. And

1:20

it was the result of actually

1:22

the third time of redrawing Alabama's

1:24

maps. After redistricting happened, there

1:27

was a census in 2020, redistricting in

1:29

2021, a lawsuit was

1:31

filed saying that it was discriminatory against

1:33

black voters, that it packed black voters

1:35

into one district and spread them out

1:37

across other ones. And so the

1:40

court came back and said, okay, you need

1:42

to redraw this map to be less discriminatory.

1:44

The Alabama legislature refused. They came back again

1:46

and said, no, we really mean it. You

1:49

need to redraw these maps. And then finally,

1:51

it resulted in a special master creating these

1:53

new boundary lines that'll be used for the

1:55

2024 election. Now, it's a nearly majority black

1:57

district because there's a lot of different. numbers

2:00

of population percentages used to

2:02

draw these in highly technical

2:04

ways. But essentially, assuming

2:06

normal turnout patterns and things like that,

2:09

this South Alabama district should see black

2:11

voters be able to elect a candidate

2:13

of their choice, which will likely be

2:15

a Democrat. nat.com Because we should note

2:17

that black voters make up roughly

2:19

a fourth of Alabama's total population.

2:21

But previously, under the first maps

2:23

that were drawn, they would have

2:25

only had the opportunity to elect

2:27

one representative of their choosing. One

2:30

out of seven is less than 25%. I think the number is

2:32

actually 27%. So this district boundary and

2:38

these lines more accurately reflect the diversity

2:40

of Alabama and where people live. nat.com

2:42

And this is a big deal because

2:45

obviously, we don't know what the US

2:47

House is going to look like after

2:49

the 2024 election. But presumably, people

2:52

are thinking that this could mean another

2:54

Democrat coming out of Alabama. Is that

2:56

right? Yeah. And so this will likely

2:59

be a pickup for Democrats. Alabama

3:01

currently has six Republicans, one Democrat

3:03

that could go to five Republicans,

3:06

two Democrats. So in the Washington

3:08

sense, it's an important victory for

3:10

Democrats. But my story looking at

3:13

representation in Alabama focuses more on

3:15

what it means for black voters

3:17

in Alabama. There are obviously people

3:19

in Alabama that care about control

3:22

of the House. But I talked to people

3:24

like Shalila Dowdy, who's a voting rights advocate

3:26

and one of the plaintiffs in this lawsuit.

3:29

And she said that representation means

3:31

something different than who wins who

3:33

loses. nat.com It means a seat

3:36

at the table. It means that we

3:38

can expect our needs and our wants

3:40

to be taken into consideration when

3:43

bills are being introduced and voted upon.

3:45

nat.com I almost feel bad

3:47

that I immediately went to the political ramifications,

3:49

right? Because this is actually something a little

3:51

bit more visceral, the idea that many voters

3:53

in Alabama are now going

3:55

to feel more empowered to elect a representative

3:58

of their choosing. talks

4:00

to folks, did you get the sense

4:02

that there was an emotional response to

4:04

this decision? Absolutely, because Alabama and the

4:06

South in particular has been ground zero

4:08

for the fight for voting rights and

4:10

the fight for black Americans to have

4:12

voting rights. Alabama, a few

4:15

years ago, last decade, had another

4:17

important case, the Shelby versus Holder

4:19

decision, which ended pre-clearance requirements, which

4:21

meant that several states and jurisdictions

4:23

that had racist voting laws had

4:25

to get the federal government to

4:27

clear any voting changes to make

4:29

sure they weren't discriminatory. And so,

4:31

Alabama, and particularly that part of the

4:34

black belt, has had this key decades

4:36

long role in the fight for equal

4:38

representation for black people. Yeah,

4:40

and I mean, the world of voting

4:42

has never been the same since that

4:44

Shelby versus Holder ruling. I mean, the

4:46

Brennan Center has noted that voter participation

4:48

among people of color has decreased. There

4:50

used to be, we're getting kind of

4:52

close to parity around the 2008 election.

4:55

And since then, people of color are voting

4:57

at smaller rates than they were then. And

5:00

a lot of that has to do with

5:02

the fact that places like Alabama, well, states

5:04

across the country, mostly Republican led states have

5:07

created more restrictive voting laws. And also,

5:09

yes, I mean, congressional voting maps affect

5:11

how people vote. If you are a voter

5:13

in a district where this is a

5:15

new neighborhoods to you, new people to you,

5:18

you are going to feel less inclined, especially

5:20

if you feel like the voting power of

5:22

people like you has been reduced from one

5:24

year to the next. That's going to affect

5:27

how you look at elections and whether you

5:29

feel compelled to vote. So I do think

5:31

like the ramifications of not

5:34

just Shelby versus Holder has been

5:36

really stark, but I think

5:38

we are kind of in a different world when

5:40

it comes to the voting patterns of people in

5:42

the South right now. Well, and there had been

5:44

this sense growing among election experts, right, Stephen, that

5:47

this court was going to not be

5:49

very friendly to the Voting Rights Act

5:51

because of the previous rulings that had

5:54

come out. Was this kind of a

5:56

surprise to experts that they decided that

5:58

Alabama did need to... another

6:01

district that black voters would actually have

6:03

a say? It was a surprise, Miles.

6:05

I mean, the direction of the court

6:07

and the direction of, I mean, I

6:09

think Chief Justice Roberts said, you know,

6:11

basically that like we've moved past this

6:13

idea that there's discrimination in voting and

6:15

there's discrimination in patterns and behaviors. And

6:17

it was expected that kind of like,

6:19

you know, we don't need the Voting

6:21

Rights Act anymore because like, we're better

6:24

than that. And so people were bracing

6:26

for the Supreme Court to kind of

6:28

further weaken the Voting Rights Act in

6:30

the immediate ramifications. It's not just

6:32

Alabama that has seen these redistricting

6:34

challenges be successful and kind of

6:37

change the lay of the land.

6:39

Yeah. And just from like a technical

6:41

aspect, I would say it's also very strange

6:43

to get a ruling so close to elections.

6:45

Like usually courts will not like to rule on

6:47

maps so close to elections. I mean, not

6:49

just like the fact that there's a runoff

6:51

in Alabama later, but in election years, like this

6:54

presidential election years, the courts tend to sort

6:56

of wait it out just because they

6:58

don't want to have any sort of like a political effect

7:01

on an election with a ruling. I know. I always

7:03

feel bad for voters whenever there's big court cases

7:05

like this that keep going back and forth and

7:07

back and forth. Like I would be really confused

7:09

if I was an Alabama voter right now. To

7:11

that point, this isn't over. I mean, there's a

7:14

trial in February 2025 over these maps that could

7:17

mean that the lines will change once

7:19

again and that this majority black district,

7:21

this probably Democratic district could go back

7:23

to its old shape and way. So

7:25

it's very, very confusing. And so part

7:27

of the representation piece too with the

7:29

people that I talked to is

7:32

getting voters engaged and paying attention to what's

7:34

happening because they may show up to the

7:36

polls and be like, I thought I was

7:38

voting for such and such. Well, it's like,

7:40

no, that's not your district anymore. Or people

7:42

that could be discouraged because they're like, oh,

7:45

it's a Republican district. I'm a Democrat. Like

7:47

I don't feel like I need to show

7:49

up and vote. So like there's multiple angles

7:52

to this that goes beyond just

7:54

the raw numbers of is it a Democrat?

7:56

Is it a Republican? What's the delegation? What's

7:58

the percentage of things like that? So like

8:00

it's a very complicated story that is ever

8:03

changing because of the way the courts act All right. Let's

8:05

take a quick break and more on this when we

8:07

get back And

8:10

we're back and so we've had all

8:13

of these fights over and over again the last few

8:15

years over What this district was

8:17

going to look like? Right

8:19

now there is a district that voters on

8:21

Tuesday are going to vote in Can you

8:24

tell us about the election on Tuesday Steven

8:26

who's running? What's at stake? Yeah, so this

8:28

is a primary runoff both in the Democratic

8:30

side and the Republican side There

8:33

is no incumbent in this seat last

8:35

month during Super Tuesday There was the

8:38

primary election ton of candidates from both

8:40

parties ran also in the

8:42

neighboring district Alabama's first district saw

8:44

a Republican member-on-member matchup where the

8:46

more conservative Barry Moore defeated representative

8:49

Jerry Carl But in this district, we've

8:51

got two Democrats in the runoff two Republicans

8:53

in the runoff on the Democratic

8:55

side You have Shamari

8:57

figures who's a mobile based

8:59

candidate who his parents

9:01

were lawmakers in the Alabama Legislature he

9:03

worked in the Obama White House for

9:06

a little bit and has strong family

9:08

ties to the area Facing off against

9:10

Anthony Daniels the Alabama State House minority

9:12

leader This gets to another interesting part

9:15

of representation because Daniels lives in Huntsville,

9:17

which is the complete opposite corner of

9:19

the state so talking with Some

9:22

of the people on the ground there there

9:25

was this sense that you know representation doesn't

9:27

just mean electing someone who looks like You

9:29

they have to know the area and they

9:31

have to be a part of the community

9:34

to be able to accurately represent them and

9:36

then On the Republican side you have Dick

9:38

Brubaker a businessman former state senator and Caroline

9:40

Dobson She's an attorney and political newcomer they're

9:43

trying to get the Republican nomination and one

9:45

of the reasons this is important miles is

9:47

because this isn't a Guaranteed victory for

9:49

the Democrats That's what I was gonna ask is like

9:51

is this the way some of the coverage has been

9:54

in the last few months It feels like almost like

9:56

a shoe in for Democrats that this was going to

9:58

play a huge role in who can controlled the

10:00

house, but you're saying that's not the case?

10:02

Well, people have to show up and vote.

10:04

And it's not purely a majority black district.

10:06

It's nearly majority black, I believe about 48%

10:09

by some of the measurements. But people have to

10:12

actually show up and vote. And so that's why

10:14

the people involved in the lawsuit

10:16

and other black voters that I talked to

10:18

are motivated to get people to show up

10:20

for this runoff and get people to show

10:22

up in November because you still have to

10:24

show up to vote to win. And so

10:26

in an environment where people are motivated on

10:28

both sides of the aisle and with a

10:30

presidential race at the top of the ticket,

10:32

it's no guarantee. Actually, I

10:34

feel like there, anytime there

10:37

is a big court decision that

10:39

affects one state, my thought

10:41

always goes to there's probably people

10:43

in a bunch of other states who now their

10:45

gears are turning on how this can impact them,

10:48

whether they're thinking about bringing challenges themselves based on

10:50

this. Do we know at all

10:53

what the ripple effects of this

10:55

decision in Alabama means

10:57

in other states potentially in the South

10:59

or anywhere else? Well, I mean,

11:01

it's always a big deal when especially the

11:04

Supreme Court makes a ruling

11:06

like this because it does sort of signal

11:08

where the court is standing on voting rights

11:10

issues. Like as you mentioned earlier, voting

11:12

rights advocates across the country were pretty

11:14

disillusioned with the fact that Shelby versus

11:17

Holder was like a ruling that came

11:19

down and that the VRA, the voting

11:21

rights act has taken quite a few hits under the

11:23

Roberts court. Not

11:26

just to focus on that one ruling, but I

11:29

think it is a sign that the

11:31

courts at least are taking these

11:34

kinds of cases seriously.

11:36

And we're talking about sort of what's

11:38

called like racial gerrymandering because the courts

11:41

have said time and time again, especially

11:43

the Supreme Court that they have like

11:45

no interest in cases that have to

11:47

do with sort of partisan gerrymandering. And

11:49

that's a party drawing districts that favor

11:52

their party. And because party and race

11:54

are sort of commingled and inextricably linked

11:56

in American politics the way they are,

11:58

it's kind of harder sometimes. to

12:00

make sure there's no sort of like racial effect

12:02

when these kind of lines are drawn. So I

12:04

do think it is interesting whenever there is a

12:06

case that is one, especially in

12:08

the South, that it sort of

12:11

upholds the voting rights of people of color

12:13

because a lot of times those cases get

12:15

sort of bogged down and the

12:17

wellness is, you know, we were right drawing

12:20

maps that favor our party like you know there's

12:22

no, there's nothing illegal here, nothing to

12:24

see here. So I do think it has at

12:26

least that sort of impact. A case

12:28

in point with the way the courts

12:31

handle things, you know, look at Louisiana

12:33

where because of the Alabama ruling, there's

12:35

an additional majority black district where voters

12:37

there should be able to elect the

12:40

candidate of their choice that should also

12:42

see a Democrat elected. But then in

12:44

Georgia, they also had a case before

12:47

the federal judge where the lawmakers added

12:49

more majority black districts on paper, but

12:51

did so in such a way that

12:54

didn't actually change the partisan outcome. So

12:56

on paper, black voters have

12:58

more representation, but they won't be

13:00

electing any more Democrats because of it.

13:02

So it really is dependent on where

13:05

these cases are filed when and in

13:07

time. And so I mean, it's a

13:09

fleeting, you know, in many ways, it's

13:11

a fleeting feeling. Yeah, and literally what

13:13

courts like what judges are in these

13:15

courts, because I feel like I bring

13:17

this up a lot, but the courts

13:19

changed a lot, especially on the appellate

13:21

level, during the Trump administration, a lot

13:24

of voting rights that complaints going before

13:26

courts in places like the Fifth Circuit,

13:28

for example, they don't usually side with

13:30

voting groups and voters of color. In

13:32

those cases, they usually side with a

13:34

sort of Republican led state. So it

13:36

really just depends like where in the

13:38

country you are sometimes. Stephen,

13:40

can you talk a little bit more about

13:42

how campaigns how this is actually affects the

13:45

political apparatus in Alabama? Because I

13:47

did just pull up the map

13:50

showing the district, it is big. And

13:52

it touches a lot of different geographic areas, like

13:55

you mentioned. And I just wonder if you are

13:57

running a campaign or if your person is trying

13:59

to mobilize voters, how a map changing

14:01

like this changes your strategy in terms

14:03

of – are they

14:05

having to rethink the kinds of voters they're

14:08

trying to mobilize? How are they rethinking strategy?

14:10

Well, you know, looking at the

14:12

map – and I encourage you to look at

14:14

the map because it's fascinating to see the different

14:16

shapes of the districts and how this works. You

14:18

know, Mobile and Montgomery

14:20

are two of the largest majority black

14:22

cities in the country, and

14:25

they're large urban areas, but Mobile

14:27

and the Mobile Bay is a

14:29

completely different vibe than Montgomery and

14:31

the state capitol, and the rural black

14:33

belt that runs between the two is

14:35

completely different. So thinking about campaigning on

14:38

both sides of the aisle, you have

14:40

to think about people that are in

14:42

urban areas, people that are in rural

14:44

areas, people that have completely different ways

14:47

of life and priorities and things that

14:49

you have to balance in a way

14:51

that maybe is a little bit different

14:53

than, like, say, the congressional district where

14:56

I live, which is almost entirely the

14:58

city of Atlanta, which is almost

15:00

the same type of people, the same type of needs,

15:02

the same type of that. And so it's

15:05

going to be challenging because what's good for

15:07

Mobile might not be good for Montgomery, and

15:09

what you need if you're a farmer in

15:11

the black belt might not resonate the same

15:13

way with somebody who lives in Montgomery. And

15:15

so it does make things

15:17

challenging because not only is it a new

15:19

district line, but you have so many different

15:22

constituencies you have to deal with, and that

15:24

also includes encouraging them to actually show up

15:26

and vote. Alright, well we will be watching

15:28

that primary runoff election on Tuesday and maybe

15:30

hearing from you then, Stephen. Let's leave

15:32

it there for today. I'm Miles Parks, I cover

15:34

voting. I'm Ashley Lopez, I also cover voting.

15:37

I'm Stephen Fowler. I cover politics. And thank

15:39

you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.