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to. Return. To

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go over. That Sergio.

1:07

Be of of sorts of a break from. Welcome.

1:18

To the Pff Nfl podcast Depots also Marks

1:20

and Live on You Tube aired We have

1:22

Day and burglar from the Athletic on the

1:24

line. We're going to get to him and

1:26

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certain states. Praise the subject to underwriting and health questions. Alright,

2:20

let's bring in Dane from the

2:22

athletic author of The Beast. Dane, welcome back

2:24

to the show. Hope all is well, man.

2:28

Yeah, guys, thanks for having me. My pleasure. So

2:30

the Beast dropped last week. Tell everybody about

2:33

the most extensive draft guide in the industry.

2:35

I love the PFF draft guide. I'm a

2:37

company guy. I do, but yours is the

2:39

most extensive. It's got many, many words in

2:41

there. 300, 4 pages. Yes, there's a lot

2:43

of a

2:47

lot of info packed. 385,000 words.

2:51

And I promise I'm not trying to make

2:53

it wordy. It's just whatever is relevant, it's

2:55

going to get in there. So yeah, it's

2:57

really the last 18 months of my life

2:59

wrapped up into this document. I

3:03

look at my job as painting a picture.

3:05

You know, there's all these puzzle pieces, you're trying to

3:07

collect them all and you try to create a clear

3:09

picture of who each one of these players, who they

3:11

are, their background, their

3:13

journey. Nowhere else

3:15

you're going to find pro day testing for almost

3:18

2000 players in here. So

3:20

it's all NFL verified. And of

3:22

course, the all the analysis, you

3:24

know, from understanding what a player

3:26

does well, where he maybe is

3:28

lacking, then they're just projection. So

3:31

it really is something that is whether

3:34

you're a diehard, whether you're just

3:36

more casual NFL draft fan, this is something

3:38

that I think you'll be happy you have

3:40

by your side now in the

3:43

lead up, but then also on draft weekend for

3:45

all three days, and then even into the the

3:47

PFAs and the free agents. So and all

3:49

you need to do is be a subscriber to

3:51

the athletic and it's included. So I think it's a

3:53

pretty good deal. Yeah, it's 385,000

3:55

words. And some of like the sort

3:57

of strengths and weaknesses thing they're written

4:00

in that clipped way of

4:02

losing a bunch of grammatical words just to

4:04

get the thing in. You've

4:07

actually deliberately cut down on the number of words

4:09

and it ends up with 385,000 words,

4:12

which is several novels worth of

4:14

information. It's insane. Like

4:19

I said, I'm not trying to be wordy. I want this to be

4:21

digestible for everybody. It's

4:23

not overly exorbitant with

4:27

verbose terms. I want this to be

4:29

accessible to, doesn't matter if you're

4:31

a 25-year NFL coach and scout or if

4:36

you're just a casual fan that enjoys this stuff,

4:38

I try to make it accessible for everybody. Yeah,

4:41

so we appreciate the hard work that goes into it.

4:44

I think we talked last year about some of your

4:46

process. Again, there's background information. You've

4:48

got it all in there. But at the end

4:50

of the day, the only thing people care about

4:52

is your rankings and your mock draft. So that's

4:54

what we're going to talk about here today. We're

4:56

going to try, Sam, to not talk

4:59

about the quarterbacks. We have discussed the QBs a

5:01

ton on this show. Not that we don't want your

5:03

takes on the quarterbacks, but I want to

5:05

try to get into some of the other position

5:08

groups. So let's start with this. High level, I

5:10

don't know how much you keep up with other

5:12

people's rankings or what the perception is. Do you

5:14

feel like, are there any prospects that

5:17

you are higher or lower on, do you think, in

5:19

maybe the consensus or the buzz, just

5:22

right off the top? Well,

5:24

it's funny because I used to think that way about

5:26

J.J. McCarthy. Not to go right back to the quarterbacks,

5:28

but back

5:31

in the summer, my initial top 50 in

5:33

August, he was top 25, a guy that

5:35

I was really bullish on. I loved the

5:37

tools, the traits, the intangibles. And then at

5:39

some point, I kind of got passed. And

5:43

so I'm maybe no longer leading

5:45

that charge. I still believe he's a

5:48

mid to late first round pick, even though he's going to go in

5:50

the top six picks. I think we know that. But

5:52

J.J. McCarthy used to be one of those guys for me. Now

5:55

Byron Murphy from Texas, big fan

5:58

of his. Just

6:01

give me the guys that don't want to be blocked, and that's

6:03

Byron Murphy. I don't care if it's against the run, against the

6:05

pass. He's maybe not

6:07

exactly how you would draw it up in

6:10

terms of size. Just around, you know,

6:12

6'1", 300 pounds. Not

6:15

the longest player, but he uses that natural leverage

6:17

to his advantage. He has got a lot of

6:19

power, a lot of natural

6:21

twitch through his hips, through his body,

6:24

and, you know, he's a smart player. I

6:27

think he understands how to, you know, control gaps.

6:29

He understands, based off of formation, based off of

6:31

what the offense is trying to do, he can

6:33

put himself in position to make plays. So, Byron

6:36

Murphy is one of those guys for me. He's

6:38

going to go somewhere in that 8-18 range. Wouldn't

6:41

shock me at all if he went 8 to the Falcons. It wouldn't

6:44

shock me if he fell to 18 in the Bengals.

6:46

And I think a couple spots in between there make

6:48

a ton of sense for Byron Murphy. Quinnyon

6:51

Mitchell from Toledo is one of those guys for me as well. I

6:54

just loved him over the summer. And then as

6:57

the season went on, it was like, okay, yeah,

6:59

this guy, forget where I had

7:01

him at like 35 overall. This

7:03

guy's going first round, and this guy's going top 20. And

7:05

then you go to the senior ball. He's the best player

7:07

there. And those are the combine. We

7:09

expect him to run a 4-3. He

7:12

does. So it's just been checking

7:14

every box for Quinnyon Mitchell. So those

7:16

guys fit in that category. A couple

7:18

of day two guys, Andrew Phillips from

7:21

Kentucky. Definitely one of my favorite players in

7:23

this draft. And usually I have trouble with guys

7:25

that are smaller and don't have a ton of

7:27

ball production. But I just watch his tape, and

7:29

he's sticky. He stays

7:32

attached to routes. He's really

7:34

competitive. The senior ball is another

7:36

kind of box check for him with the way that

7:38

he played. So he's in

7:40

that category for me. And then Marshawn Neelan from

7:42

Western Michigan. If you're going to – we

7:45

have a good feeling for those what, 27, 28 names that are

7:47

going to be in the first round. And

7:49

then it's, okay, who were the last five? Who were going

7:51

to be some of those surprise players? Marshawn

7:54

Neelan, I think, could be a surprise name. He

7:57

plays the right position. He's a pass rusher. And

7:59

he's a good-sized – players 6-3, 2-7, tested

8:01

off the charts and you

8:03

feel like his best football is ahead of him.

8:05

So, Marshall and Neelan snuck into that late first

8:08

round. He's more likely to be a second rounder

8:10

but if he were to sneak into that first

8:12

round I wouldn't be surprised. Yeah, I was actually

8:14

gonna ask you for a

8:16

few names like Marshall and Neelan. Those guys that

8:18

are gonna go sneak into the bottom of the

8:20

first round. Everybody has you know X number of

8:22

first round draft picks and then you run out

8:25

of them and the last five picks in the

8:27

first round are always this interesting collection of names

8:29

of well who do you pick if you're stuck

8:31

at that spot you run out of first round

8:33

grades you've got a somebody's got to go so

8:35

Neelan is an interesting one are there any more

8:37

names like that and for Neelan in particular where

8:40

do you play him where do you project

8:42

him at the next level because he's one

8:44

of these kind of tweener type players who

8:46

looked more like an interior player to me

8:48

on tape but then you know he

8:50

showed up and measured sort of a lot lighter

8:52

and you know it would be way undersized for

8:54

an interior player and show that he has the

8:57

athleticism to play on the edge. Yeah

9:00

I don't he's not maybe the best bender

9:02

what you would think from an edge rusher

9:04

but he can set a hard edge in

9:07

the run game and he is very smooth

9:09

and athletic when he

9:11

gets after the quarterback and if you're gonna

9:13

watch one tape with Marshawn Neelan make it

9:15

the Eastern Michigan tape because he just took

9:18

over that game from you

9:20

know whether it was rushing off the edge

9:22

whether it was just the motor never quitting

9:25

he's explosive and he can win

9:27

in different ways and so that

9:29

that charged up play style that he

9:31

has I think it's gonna appeal to a lot

9:33

of different schemes as as an edge rusher you

9:35

think of you know the Lions picking up what

9:38

29 we know the Lions

9:40

like to do things differently they have

9:42

their own way of building their board

9:44

and how they value players if they

9:46

were to me Neelan is a bite

9:48

off a kneecap type of guy so

9:51

that wouldn't surprise me at all if that

9:53

is a pairing that made sense for

9:55

Detroit other guys you know it's

9:58

it's always tough to do this because I feel like there's

10:01

what a million mock drafts out there. So at

10:03

some point I'm sure a player has been mocked

10:05

in the first round, but You

10:08

know Chris Jenkins from Michigan. I you know,

10:10

this is a defensive tackle class. That's not

10:12

very strong at the top I was talking

10:14

about Byron Murphy Johnny Newton just had his

10:16

workout at a scout tell me yesterday that

10:18

even though he didn't test he helped himself

10:20

because his workout was outstanding So Johnny Newton

10:22

has a good chance of getting the first

10:24

round if there's a third defensive tackle that

10:27

gets in there Chris Jenkins maybe could be

10:29

that guy we know, you know, his dad

10:31

was a pro bowler Different style of

10:33

player about 60 pounds less than his dad

10:36

And the production doesn't jump out at you, but then

10:38

you watch a tape and you realize okay what he

10:41

was asked to do in terms of controlling

10:43

blocks and you know I think there's

10:45

more in him than what the tape

10:47

says and the testing backs that up

10:50

You know, there's a lot of things that point to

10:52

Chris Jenkins being a better pro in a system That's

10:54

you know, maybe a one-gap system to let them get

10:57

up the field And it'll

10:59

stick with Michigan I think that there's a

11:01

lot of fans for junior colston the

11:03

linebacker and Mike Sainristill from As

11:06

the nickel and I don't know that they get into that

11:09

first round But again if we have

11:11

to be bold and pick maybe an underrated player that

11:13

needs to be talked about in that discussion Those

11:15

two guys are in there for me because they're

11:17

top 40 they're considered top 40 picks Junior

11:20

Colson is a linebacker one for a lot

11:22

of teams and this is a linebacker class

11:24

that is a lot more

11:26

question marks than I think You

11:28

know, it's not a deep group. And so, you know,

11:31

I like Edron

11:33

Cooper I like Cedric Gray. I like Eichenberg,

11:36

you know Peyton Wilson's a lot of fun

11:38

But obviously the durability with him a lot

11:40

of teams look at junior colson and even

11:43

though he didn't test He has no testing

11:45

information Due to a hamstring injury

11:47

combine pro day even without that testing I

11:49

think a lot of teams look at him

11:51

as the top linebacker this year and a

11:54

guy that if he He's gonna

11:56

go somewhere probably top 40 top 50 maybe even 37

11:58

to the Chargers reunite

12:00

him and Jim Harbaugh, but if

12:02

the Packers, the Cowboys, maybe they trade back

12:04

a few spots and they're picking at 30

12:07

and they look at their board, they're kind

12:09

of wiped out, it wouldn't shock me at

12:11

all if Junior Colson were to sneak in

12:13

there. Yeah, so you have Junior Colson as

12:15

linebacker one and in what we think is

12:17

a weaker linebacker class. You mentioned

12:19

a bunch of names that all have question marks, whether it's medical

12:21

or on field, whatever it might be. It's

12:24

an interesting year because it feels like the strength

12:26

of the draft is in the premium positions. There's

12:29

a lot of tackle and receiver and there's a lot

12:31

of first round caliber corners and the whole deal. And

12:34

it feels like the weaknesses are at the

12:36

lower value positions, linebacker and safety and

12:39

maybe interior offensive line after the first

12:41

couple. Where would you

12:43

put the strengths and weaknesses of the draft and

12:45

how much do you think that is just NFL

12:47

trends or is it the actual players,

12:50

like the actual depth at some of those

12:52

positions? Yeah, to

12:54

your point, we're going to see the premium positions

12:56

go early and often in the first round. We've

12:59

never seen 20 offensive

13:02

players in the first round before,

13:04

but in my mock draft that just came out

13:06

yesterday on the Athletic, I had 21 offensive

13:08

players in there, only 11 defensive

13:10

players. So it feels like there is a decent

13:13

chance that we see that happen. And

13:16

it's because of the quarterbacks, the

13:18

receivers, the offensive tackles, those

13:20

three positions are going to fly off. I

13:23

do think it's because the talent

13:25

warrants it, but also because you look

13:27

at this tackle class, I

13:30

think it falls off in the second round. There's

13:32

talent there. You can find guys that should

13:34

be able to start eventually in the NFL,

13:36

but I do think there is a drop

13:39

off that if you don't get your tackle

13:41

in the first round, I don't

13:43

know that you're going to love your options on day

13:45

two. And so then those few options

13:47

are going to be off the board quickly. So

13:49

even though tackle is a strong position

13:52

this year, it's more top heavy than deep,

13:55

Where other positions are going to

13:57

stretch like wide receiver, corner? Those

13:59

positions.. The are strong at the top old

14:01

corner so maybe it is law up and

14:04

down A oh you're gonna have Syrian Arnold's

14:06

Queen John Mitchell they're going to go early

14:08

and then where does Cooper to Gene go?

14:10

Where does Neat Wiggins go? So you were

14:13

so gonna see a handful corners go in

14:15

the first round. Receivers I even though it

14:17

is a deep position during the guys third

14:19

round forth from fifth round that you're gonna

14:21

like and you going to feel like you've

14:24

we atoms were mix we can have a

14:26

potential in not impact Godzilla. that's gonna help

14:28

our offense pretty quickly. But even with

14:30

that said, even with the deaths were going to

14:33

see if laugh the board the award as he

14:35

three and a top ten couple more round out

14:37

the first round. A ton of these guys are

14:39

going to second rounds in the top seventy five.

14:42

So even though you do, you feel okay waiting

14:44

on a receiver if you want to, it's still

14:46

a position where they're going to be flying off

14:48

the board and night. That might be the case

14:50

from here on out. There are some allies to

14:53

see their specific every year wide receiver. There's so

14:55

many of these guys. but does your does feel

14:57

little bit different especially with those top three guys

14:59

potential. Number One's at the top. Do.

15:02

You feel like the receiver thing. Is

15:04

more about this that the nature of the

15:06

position right? You're actually you're trying to find

15:08

the good stuff or receiver is you could

15:10

say he could be are three he could

15:12

be or to. He. Should just be a

15:14

deep threat. You think it's easier to find the

15:16

positives in a receiver? versus. A A

15:18

tackle who? you can't have weaknesses right? You could be

15:20

a starter. You can be only good and one facet

15:22

of the games you think that's. Part of

15:25

the nature of evaluating receivers was other positions.

15:28

It no doubt as it gets. This.

15:30

especially a certain positions focusing on what they

15:33

were asked to do and college obviously a

15:35

with all sense lines you know it's like

15:37

okay stop the guy in front of you

15:39

or block the guy in front of you

15:41

know it's like i did we waited as

15:44

obviously different schemes but we have a good

15:46

feeling force or the often the line and

15:48

whereas receiver maybe they were lined up as

15:50

i as flawed only maybe they were lined

15:52

up or outside only i your day they

15:55

ran a and as a truncated around free

15:57

you know i could tell brand thomas malice

15:59

you You watch his tape and

16:01

it's a lot of flance a lot of goes

16:03

and it's like, okay Well, you know, what else

16:05

can he do and then he does run, you

16:07

know a different route and you're like, okay He

16:10

can do it. I and he has the athleticism

16:12

clearly, you know, see the testing You just see

16:14

the way he moves on the football field. He

16:16

has it more in him It's

16:18

just they weren't he in that LSU offense They didn't

16:20

ask him to do it And so I do think

16:22

you maybe you give a little more leeway with receivers

16:25

Because like you said the nature of the position

16:27

where they're not in in college The

16:29

number one priority for the coaches is not

16:32

hey, let's just get this guy ready for the

16:34

NFL Let's make sure he's got the full route

16:36

tree full inventory of the routes that scouts want

16:38

to see like that's that's not doesn't even Enter

16:41

their brain. They okay. What does this guy do

16:43

best? Boom? All right, let's do that Let's whatever

16:45

is gonna help us win football games. So I

16:47

do think that with receivers. There's a little more

16:51

leeway to The imagination

16:53

of maybe he could do this. Maybe he

16:55

could do that Some receivers

16:57

are stuck with bad quarterbacks stuck in a

16:59

bad offense and okay, it's easier to

17:03

Explain away maybe why they didn't

17:06

have the better production That

17:08

you would hope to a receiver would have that you're gonna draft

17:10

in the top 100 So yeah, that's

17:12

an interesting conversation with these receivers because there's

17:14

so many of them They're all a little

17:16

bit different with what they offer And

17:19

to your point that every team looks at

17:21

them different because every team is even though

17:23

we stock all these guys in the same

17:26

bucket Johnny Wilson

17:29

is ranked like close to Jacob cowing

17:31

and they're completely You couldn't be more opposite

17:33

in terms of the size in terms of

17:35

what they do And

17:37

so I think it's important to point out that

17:39

even though these guys are all receivers They're very

17:41

different with what they offer and teams based off

17:44

of what they need in their scheme and their

17:46

offense And you know, maybe they already have an

17:48

X and they just they want that true Z

17:50

and it's it's very different from team to Team

17:52

how they look at these receivers one

17:54

of the things in the the beast is you

17:57

have an amazing amount of background information? On all

17:59

these guys What was

18:01

your favorite kind of nugget or personal story

18:03

that you came across while doing all this

18:05

research? Yeah,

18:07

there's so many. And that's

18:10

my favorite part of doing this is just those

18:12

journeys. And I think with Ray

18:14

Davis, the running back from Kentucky, I think a lot

18:16

of people know his story by now.

18:19

But everything that life threw at

18:21

him at an early age, being in the

18:23

foster care system and not really having a

18:25

support system, you know, football kind of being

18:28

his outlet. But for him

18:30

to not only break

18:32

through and become a recruit and

18:34

have success at the college level

18:38

and being able to lead

18:40

three different college programs and rushing over

18:42

the last five years. And

18:44

then this past year, what he did on put

18:46

on tape, it's like, okay, this guy is a

18:48

great story, but he's also a really good player.

18:50

And I think his game against

18:52

Florida might be the best single running back

18:54

tape that we have this year. I was

18:57

there. So, I mean,

18:59

he's throwing the Georgia tape and he's making plays. Every

19:01

single game, it felt like he was doing something. But

19:03

the story to see where he's come from, and it's

19:05

fun when you talk to him because every time we

19:08

talk about his game, he finds a way

19:10

to mention his offensive line. So he's a really

19:13

humble guy, just an outstanding story. Quontes

19:17

Stiggers, the Canadian Football

19:19

League corner, who – just a unique

19:21

situation because he didn't attend the college.

19:23

He is eligible in this draft even

19:25

though he was the rookie of the

19:28

year in the CFL last year. He's

19:31

a really interesting player who, again, had to

19:33

overcome a lot. He was

19:35

going to Lane College, then he lost

19:37

his father, and he had went back

19:39

home. And he's playing in basically a

19:41

seven-on-seven indoor league, and he got

19:44

a chance at a tryout in the CFL. And

19:46

he turns it into this opportunity to get on

19:48

the field and make a name for himself. And

19:50

now he's going to be a draft pick somewhere

19:52

on day three for a team looking for corner

19:55

help. So that's – all

19:57

these guys go through so many different things, whether

19:59

it's – and some tougher

20:01

than others, but finding out, you know,

20:03

where they multi-sport athletes growing up. Oh,

20:06

J.J. McCarthy was a big-time hockey player growing up. Okay.

20:08

And, you know, that's where he gets his toughness from

20:10

because he was a – he – at one point,

20:13

he thought he'd go pro as a hockey player. Or,

20:15

you know, Joe Alt, Notre Dame, you know,

20:17

he didn't play off of the tackle until

20:19

his senior year of high school. His dad

20:22

was a pro-ball tackle in the early 90s.

20:24

Like, how does that work? And, oh, you

20:26

find out that was on purpose. His

20:29

dad wanted Joe to be an athlete first,

20:31

and so he's a quarterback. He's a tight end. He's

20:33

playing all these different sports. And

20:36

then finally, okay, senior year, let's get you

20:38

more offensive line – or get you some

20:40

offensive line, an introduction to

20:42

this sport or to this position. And then

20:44

he goes to Notre Dame, and you see

20:47

year-over-year big-time improvements made. And part of that

20:49

is because of the way that he grew

20:51

up being an athlete first. So

20:54

a lot of interesting little

20:57

tidbits and things as you go through these players and you

20:59

pick up different things. And so it's

21:01

a big – it's probably the most enjoyable part

21:03

of my process as I do this. Love that.

21:06

Yeah, again, the beast is packed with all

21:08

those – the background information, the personal stories,

21:10

and basically, you know, everybody's path to –

21:12

path to the draft here. I

21:14

want to talk some of the position groups and, you know, kind

21:17

of hot-button guys, you know,

21:19

rankings. And sometimes

21:21

you're splitting hairs between one, two, and three. But one

21:24

of the position groups, Edge Rusher, we talked a little bit about,

21:26

you know, a Marshawn Neland sneaking in the first. But

21:29

it's pretty clear top three with Dallas Turner. You

21:32

have Dallas Turner, Jared Vers, and

21:34

then Liatu Latu. We've been big Latu

21:36

fans here because of that production, obviously

21:38

the medical injury. How do you

21:40

– how did you separate those three guys, and how do

21:42

you – how would you – what

21:44

are the debates like, I think, when you're trying to sort

21:47

through those top three edges? Yeah,

21:49

and it's always tough for those of us on the outside.

21:52

Obviously, we don't have near the information that

21:54

teams do when it comes to medical and

21:57

character, and a great example

21:59

last year. Pukanakua. He graded out as

22:01

a day two receiver, but he dropped

22:03

them in your rankings because he couldn't

22:05

stay healthy in the medical stuff. And

22:08

he ended up falling on draft weekend

22:10

because of that. And obviously we saw

22:12

how that worked out. But

22:15

a player like Liatu Lattu, who

22:17

has had to medically retire, even

22:19

though he has been healthy the last two years, played in

22:21

every game for UCLA,

22:23

how do you weigh that? You can't completely

22:26

ignore it. But so

22:28

it's part of the conversation. I

22:30

think with these, this is not maybe the best

22:33

group of edge rushers, but those three guys

22:35

at the top are really talented. And with

22:37

Lattu, you love that he's

22:40

not just throwing stuff out there with

22:42

his rush moves. A lot of college

22:44

players, because they're so

22:46

used to being bigger and faster

22:48

and stronger than everybody. So their

22:50

rush moves, their sequencing is underdeveloped

22:53

in terms of the timing and

22:55

what they do. But with Lattu,

22:57

it's a dance. It is a

23:00

very coordinated and calculated attack for

23:02

him with what he's going to

23:04

do to offensive lawmen. That's tape

23:07

study. That's know-how. That's just a

23:09

very strong technical understanding of how to

23:11

play the position. And that's something that

23:13

you feel like is going to translate.

23:15

So he's not, the size is

23:17

good, not great. The athleticism is good,

23:19

not amazing. He's not some superhuman athlete,

23:21

but his understanding of how to play

23:23

the position, I think you see that

23:25

and okay, that's going to translate pretty

23:28

well. Dallas Turner ended

23:30

up number one for me among these edge rushers,

23:32

because I think you love the

23:34

athleticism and the upside, but he also has

23:36

production. I mean, he led the SEC in

23:38

sacks this year, but he's

23:40

a guy at 6'3", 250. You could stand him

23:42

up and play, let him play Mike

23:45

linebacker. He could do it no problem. He

23:47

is that type of freaky athlete, but he

23:49

can lock out, stop the run. He's

23:52

one of these guys where he's not as savvy as

23:54

a pass rusher in terms of how to use

23:57

his moves to break down the rhythm of blockers.

24:00

but he has it in him. It's just

24:02

a matter of coaching and experience. So he's

24:04

not Will Anderson. He's not that type of,

24:06

doesn't have that type of nuance just yet,

24:08

but the freaky athleticism, the ability, the fact

24:10

that he does like to stop the run

24:12

and just so you bet on that upside.

24:15

And I think that's why he's probably the

24:17

favorite to be the first defensive player drafted.

24:19

You know, you look at Atlanta at eight,

24:21

maybe even the Bears at nine. Yeah, we'll

24:23

see, but he's going to go pretty early.

24:26

And Jared verse, he's just, I mean, he's

24:28

so easy to light because the energy that

24:30

he plays with it's nonstop. The

24:33

way he can convert his speed

24:35

to power is really impressive. Maybe

24:37

you wish there was, he didn't

24:39

rely on that so much, just

24:42

because he is, you know, he's 6'4", 255. He's not

24:44

this, you know, he's not

24:46

the size of a de Forest Buckner out there

24:49

doing that. So maybe you wish there was a

24:51

little more secondary options to

24:54

the way he rushes, but still

24:56

he gets results. He's disruptive. So all three

24:58

of these guys, I think they're different with

25:00

why you like them, which makes it interesting

25:02

when you try to stack them one through

25:04

two, three. But that's also why teams are

25:06

very different with their order of one, two,

25:08

three, and even Chopper, I throw Chopper Robinson

25:10

in there as well, because teams will, if

25:12

you can do one thing really, really, really

25:15

well, they will latch onto that and run

25:17

with it. And with Chopper Robinson, that first

25:19

step is unmatched. And teams look at that

25:21

and say, give me that, we'll work

25:23

on the rest. Will McDonald went top 15

25:25

last year, you know, kind of similar. I

25:28

think everyone tends to see this quarterback class

25:30

as pretty much the same, at least in

25:32

terms of tiers, right? It's the top guys,

25:34

the ones that are going to go in

25:37

the first round, then it's the where are

25:39

you on Bo Nicks, Michael Pennick's conversation, and

25:41

then everybody's favorite of the rest is Spencer

25:43

Rattler. But if you had to bet of

25:46

all the remaining guys, once you get beyond

25:48

Spencer Rattler, who's going to be the next

25:50

Brock Purdy? If you have to put your

25:52

money on one of those guys, who would

25:54

it be? I would

25:57

go with Michael Pratt from Tulane. You

26:00

look at what he did at Tulane with that

26:02

offense. They won a lot of games after that

26:04

tough for the 2021 season, and

26:07

then they helped turn him around at

26:10

a really good 2022 season. He's

26:12

young, still growing, still developing, but I think

26:15

he does a lot of things well. And

26:17

you talk about the rhythm from the pocket,

26:19

his accuracy. He's a good athlete, so he

26:22

can move around. He's very clean with his

26:24

mechanics. I think he's going

26:26

to continue getting better in terms of his

26:28

reaction to pressure, just understanding,

26:30

okay, this is my hot route. This is where

26:32

the pressure is coming from. This is, well, just

26:35

going through all those things, I think he

26:37

will get better. So to me, he

26:39

is an NFL backup, but if he gets a chance to

26:41

start, I think he's got a chance to stick. A

26:44

guy that once he gets on the field, he

26:46

has the right mentality. He's got the toughness. You

26:49

know, and you talk to the coaches at

26:51

Tulane, and they just, they rave about him.

26:53

The work that he puts in, his

26:55

teammates back that up. They say the same type

26:58

of things about him. So he

27:00

has not an A plus arm, but a

27:02

B arm, good enough arm. But

27:05

more so than that, he's accurate. He understands where to

27:07

go with the football. He's a

27:09

good athlete, good size athlete. And I

27:11

think he's smart. I think he's got

27:13

the toughness. So probably won't go until

27:15

day three, but somewhere in the fourth

27:17

round, I would rather bet on him

27:19

than say a Devin Leary or a

27:21

Joe Milton or some of these other

27:23

quarterbacks. I gotta tell

27:25

this story quickly because sometimes when I'm

27:28

watching film, like I watch film at

27:30

various points, different places, whatever.

27:33

And so when I think of

27:35

Michael Pratt, I

27:37

started watching his film back in

27:39

December while I was at the airport

27:41

picking up my wife and kids from a trip while I

27:43

was dressed up as Elf. So I

27:45

was sitting in the airport dressed

27:48

as Elf, grinded Michael Pratt

27:50

film. So, you know, that's when I

27:52

think of Pratt, when he gets drafted, I'm gonna associate it

27:54

with being at the airport dressed as Elf and everybody waving

27:57

saying, hey buddy. That was- That's a

27:59

good thing you're- smaller guys that people

28:01

would probably didn't notice you. Not

28:03

noticed at all. Throw

28:05

that into my background notes. I

28:07

want to get to your mock draft in a minute but

28:09

one of the guys to highlight there is you went with

28:11

what everybody else is doing here Brock Bowers to the Jets

28:14

at 10. I want to

28:16

discuss Brock Bowers a little bit. What's that conversation

28:18

like because a lot of people are

28:20

saying do you take a tight end in the top 10 and TJ

28:22

Hawkinson didn't develop till year four and Kyle

28:25

Pitts hasn't lived up to the hype after

28:27

the one year. How do you how do

28:29

you break down Brock Bowers and where he

28:31

should go in the draft. Yeah

28:33

and it's tough when you look at it you can't

28:35

debate the track record of tight ends in

28:38

the top half of round one but I

28:40

think we become so obsessive with

28:42

the T in the E next to his name.

28:45

What if we just call him a slot receiver and how does how

28:47

does our opinion change our perspective change or

28:49

let's just call him a dynamic weapon and usually I'm

28:51

opposed to that but that's kind of what he is.

28:53

I mean you can line them up out wide. You

28:55

can line them up in the slot and you can

28:57

line them up in the backfield make

28:59

defenses account for him on every single

29:01

play and the dynamic

29:04

ways he can make

29:06

plays down the field whether it's it could be

29:08

a jet sweep it could be working down the

29:10

seam it's just he can have the toughness to

29:12

work over the middle his ball skills are outstanding

29:15

and then after the catch he is such

29:17

a threat because of the speed but also

29:19

the toughness he finds those hidden yards where

29:21

for most tight ends it's a five yard

29:23

gain he makes it an eight yard gain

29:25

and then makes all the difference when it's

29:27

you know third and two and not third

29:29

and five so I think that there's just

29:31

so much that he offers and you're encouraged

29:33

by the fact that you look at that

29:36

that 2021 Georgia roster and you've got

29:38

guys like George Pickens and Adanai

29:41

Mitchell and a lot of

29:43

talent and yet it was still Brock

29:45

Bowers who's leading that team and

29:47

receiving it made such a

29:49

dynamic impact as a true freshman For

29:52

a national title winning team and so it's

29:54

not like this, he's had to grow to

29:57

this point. He was the guy from day

29:59

one. The just a little bit different

30:01

then we don't give you a good rasim

30:03

you're not plugging a minute the why and

30:05

just said it and forget it and run

30:07

your office. You have to have an understanding

30:10

of okay we're gonna make him a feature

30:12

part of our offense by doing this, this

30:14

and this. and as a General Manager, you

30:16

better trust your play caller to understand how

30:18

to use a guy like this. So that's

30:20

a big part of this. And go if

30:22

you're a Chris Ballard and you're looking at

30:24

that's like an offense and knew I'd say

30:26

as long as you as on the same

30:28

page island that think that that be a

30:31

great fit for brought Powers are using by

30:33

Sean Payton. they're picking what twelfth Jimmy Graham

30:35

when he was in with the same thing.

30:37

Go back to Germy Shockey. Ah back in

30:39

a day when Sean Payton totes ten different

30:41

types of tight ends but an understanding of

30:43

okay disguise. Little bit different. and let's make

30:45

sure we're using human the right way. So

30:47

I think it's almost more up as it's

30:50

It's the onus is on the coaches to

30:52

make this work more so than the player

30:54

is. The player has the talents. It just

30:56

a matter of okay in a General Manager,

30:58

trust the coaching staff to use him in

31:00

the right way to justify why we're drafting.

31:02

I'm in the top ten and I think

31:04

Brock Powers of the type of guy you

31:06

take a chance on. And. That that

31:09

position was designation thing is effectively like

31:11

the Bills did that. Last.

31:13

Year I bake a Magnum. A new deal he said.

31:16

Don't. Kincaid is basically going to be our big

31:18

slot. like he's not a tight and he's if

31:20

he's going to be replacing Cole Beasley in this

31:22

office. They give him. in those terms. That's what

31:24

he's going to do. it. Okay, didn't have zero

31:26

thousand yards or anything, but he was a productive

31:29

player for them and was getting better as the

31:31

year went on. No.

31:33

doubt and he'll be a big part

31:35

is often moving forward so yeah brock

31:37

bowers even if the on the rookie

31:39

year isn't a thousand yards receiving any

31:41

you're a as you look move forward

31:43

with this off and say he's gonna

31:45

be a big part of it and

31:47

and the just arena when now a

31:49

situation where isn't that's always talk is

31:52

an aaron rodgers hasn't necessarily always been

31:54

the most supportive of rookies coming in

31:56

right away and being making a big

31:58

an impact he wants veterans We want

32:00

guys who know where to go, but to

32:02

me Bowers feels like one of those guys

32:04

where he's going to know the playbook, he's

32:06

not going to make a ton of mental

32:08

mistakes, and the ones that he does make,

32:10

he won't make them again. He won't make

32:12

them a second time. So I do think

32:14

that's why you look at the Jets, he

32:16

fits both as a player

32:18

and what he brings that offense, but also kind

32:21

of the makeup of that team and what they're

32:23

trying to do as a win now team.

32:26

And so, yeah, Bowers is the wild card,

32:28

right? I think he goes somewhere in

32:30

the top 15, it's just a matter of, okay, is it going to

32:32

be the Jets at 10? Is it going to be the

32:34

Broncos at 12, Colts at 15? Are we

32:36

going to see some type of trade up

32:38

situation or trade back situation or maybe a

32:40

wild card team we're not even talking about?

32:42

He really is that wild

32:44

card at the top half of round one. Yeah, the more

32:46

I think of it, you mentioned it earlier, Dane, when a

32:49

team says a guy can do one thing really well, I

32:51

mean, if you're not going to get one of those top

32:53

three receivers, there's some team that's going

32:55

to say, I want Brock Bowers in my offense. I need that

32:57

guy. So I'm

32:59

leaning more toward he becomes a top

33:02

10 player that some team is coveting.

33:05

Let's go to your seven round mock here. I

33:07

assume this isn't your final mock. I know how

33:09

the business works. You have to knock out at

33:12

least three or four before draft night here. But

33:14

the extensive seven round mock, nothing

33:16

crazy at the top, but you got

33:18

the Vikings trading up for JJ McCarthy.

33:20

We see this often and

33:23

you leaned into the Cardinals replicating what they

33:25

did last year, a trade back from

33:27

four and then a trade back up to

33:30

get Marvin Harrison Jr. That took the Chargers out

33:32

of the pick five and they trade down and

33:34

get JC Latham to tackle. Chargers fans are going

33:36

to hate that. They don't want

33:38

to tackle. They want a receiver. But how

33:42

do you expect that top? Like what do you think

33:44

happens after the top few quarterbacks go off the board

33:46

here? Yeah,

33:48

these receivers are going to go, you know,

33:50

it's kind of some parallels to the

33:52

2021 draft where we saw

33:54

three quarterbacks go and then

33:56

it was three path catchers with

33:59

pits. and to Mark Chase

34:01

and Waddle. And

34:03

then we saw the tackle at Pennay Sewell at

34:05

seven. Kind of some parallels this year where we're

34:08

gonna see the quarterback go one, two, three. And

34:10

then, okay, where's that fourth quarterback

34:12

come off the board? And the

34:14

thing that's gonna, you know, we know Caleb's gonna go

34:16

one, he's gonna be a Chicago Bear. The thing that's

34:18

gonna throw everything off is if JJ McCarthy becomes

34:21

that second or third quarterback off the board.

34:24

And that's gonna throw everything off. Because all of a sudden,

34:27

I think we'll have more teams in the hunt to

34:30

trade up for, look,

34:32

let's just say JJ McCarthy, let's say JJ McCarthy goes

34:34

two, JJ McCarthy goes three, the

34:36

Patriots. Drake May, all of

34:38

a sudden, if you're the Cardinals, you're loving it.

34:40

Because all of a sudden that Cardinals pick is

34:42

big, your phone is blowing up. Whether it's the

34:44

Giants at six, the Vikings at 11, I

34:47

think the Broncos at 12 are very much

34:49

in play there. They would not hesitate to

34:52

trade future picks to get up to number

34:54

four to get that quarterback. So that's gonna

34:56

be the, kind of the wrench in this

34:58

whole thing is, is it chalk

35:00

where it's, okay, Jay Daniels, Drake May, win

35:03

whatever order two and three. And then we

35:05

just kind of figure out where JJ McCarthy

35:07

goes with the fourth quarterback off the board. If

35:10

the order is disrupted, that's where I

35:12

think things get really interesting. And that

35:14

could really disrupt how these receivers come

35:17

off the board. And what's the order?

35:19

Joe Alt to the Titans feels almost,

35:21

it makes too much sense. So it's not gonna

35:23

happen. We'll see how that plays

35:25

out. When's the first defense a player come off the board?

35:29

Only once, and it was that 2021 draft, only

35:31

once in the 57 years in

35:34

the Super Bowl era of NFL drafts, have

35:36

we seen offense go one through seven. So

35:39

in this year, who knows if the Falcons

35:41

say they have several guys on their board

35:43

that they rate very similar, Quinnon Mitchell and

35:45

Dallas Turner and verse and these guys, maybe

35:47

they trade back and a team trades up

35:49

to get Roma Dunes, they had eight. And

35:52

all of a sudden we've got eight, we've

35:54

got offensive players one through eight. You might

35:56

have offensive players one through 10. This is

35:58

an offensive heavy first round. And

36:01

there's going to be a lot of intrigue because we're going

36:03

to see some trade action. The

36:05

Cardinals and Chargers are willing to move out of there. Are

36:07

they willing to be a little aggressive with how they

36:09

move around? But this

36:12

is a draft where if you can

36:14

get – you want to be picking top 10, so I don't think you want

36:16

to trade back too far. But if you can

36:18

pick up an extra 2, an extra 3, like most drafts,

36:20

I think that's kind of the sweet spot. And

36:23

for a team like the Chargers, you've got

36:25

a brand new regime. You're trying

36:27

to turn over the roster with young,

36:30

inexpensive talent that fits your vision, your mold

36:32

for what you're trying to build. The

36:34

Chargers, I think, will be more than willing to get

36:37

out of there, and they can build the LA Wolverines

36:39

down there. I was

36:41

trying to interrupt you for a minute. I

36:43

apologize. But the Jayden Daniels took two to

36:45

the commanders. That's not really locked in, right?

36:47

I think we're all feeling that buzz. But

36:50

actual information coming out of Washington, I

36:52

don't think – I don't

36:55

know. How much do you trust anything coming out of Washington? They've

36:57

been pretty mom, I would say, in this whole process. All

37:00

the buzz about Jayden Daniels at 2 is coming from

37:02

other teams. That's what other teams feel like the commanders

37:04

are going to do. The

37:07

commanders aren't giving away anything at this point, and

37:09

I doubt they will, just because – and it's

37:11

interesting with a brand new regime. You have a

37:13

new owner who will have his thumb on the

37:15

scale. You have a

37:17

first-year general manager. You've got a coach in

37:19

his second go-around as the head guy, but

37:21

he's a defensive coach. So he

37:24

brings a different perspective to this. I

37:26

can certainly understand, even though – to be Drake

37:29

Mays' second-best quarterback this year, I can

37:31

certainly understand if they come away thinking Jayden

37:33

Daniels and everything he offers is the best

37:35

fit for them. But yeah, no.

37:38

By no means would I call it a

37:40

done deal. I'm sure the

37:42

commanders have a clear leader in the clubhouse of

37:44

who they want to take, but they're still doing

37:46

their work. You

37:48

talk to general managers who have drafted quarterbacks in the past,

37:51

and they'll tell you, yeah, we had a

37:53

good feeling it was this guy, but it wasn't

37:55

until the end that we really knew it because

37:57

they continue to do work and make

37:59

sure – they're making the right decision. So

38:02

I do think that regardless of who

38:04

they draft, we're going to see the commander stay at two and

38:07

I think we're going to see the Patriots stay at

38:09

three. I mean, you look at Robert

38:11

Kraft and he's 82 years old. He just got

38:13

done watching the worst offensive season the Patriots have

38:16

had in his tenure as an

38:18

owner. He's not going through that again. Yeah. He

38:20

wants to inject some life into this offense and

38:22

no disrespect to Jacobi Bressett, but it's

38:25

not going to be enough. I mean, they need to draft

38:28

a quarterback and I think they will be fine doing it

38:30

at number three, even though I do

38:32

think they're going to get some pretty lucrative

38:34

trade offers to move back. I just think

38:36

that it's going to be hard to trade

38:38

away from one of these quarterbacks. Yeah. Belichick

38:40

on McAfee, I think yesterday was saying accurate

38:43

information from within teams is not coming

38:45

out until 12 hours before the draft.

38:47

Everything that's coming out now is

38:50

agent driven. It's other people. It's not necessarily

38:52

the accurate information. There's probably truth to that.

38:55

However, last year, the information that came out

38:57

12 hours before the draft was Will Levesque

38:59

going at two. That was the betting

39:01

market putting Levesque at two. So let's just,

39:03

you know, well, it doesn't mean that the

39:05

only information coming out 12 hours is accurate.

39:07

That's a good point. That's a good point.

39:09

Yeah. Okay. That's fair. Um,

39:12

Sam, do you have anything, any other questions on

39:15

the mock? Yeah. Well, so, um, just

39:17

in terms of, we're talking about trades

39:19

and everyone's focusing on, you know, teams

39:21

trading up to get the quarterbacks it

39:23

there. There are other players in this

39:25

draft that have been talked about as, you know,

39:27

here's somebody worth trading up for. If you were

39:30

going to project players that

39:32

are going to get, uh, capture somebody's attention

39:34

and be the subject of a team

39:36

trading up to get them in the first round, who

39:39

would you flag for that? We

39:42

got to mention the bills, right? Um, they're

39:45

in a spot where they could, they

39:47

could stick and pick at a 28, but we know

39:51

they have a need at wide receiver and it

39:53

depends on how they view these guys. Um, you

39:55

know, do they, after the top

39:57

three, let's just say they don't make a Julio Jones

39:59

trade. How do they stack up

40:02

Brian Thomas Jr., and Adnai Mitchell, and

40:04

Ladd McConkie, and Keon Coleman, all these

40:06

guys? Is there a clear number one?

40:08

Or is they closely grouped together and

40:10

they're fine with whoever falls to them?

40:12

So how the Bills view these receivers

40:14

is a big point of the conversation.

40:17

We know Brain and Bean's not shy to be

40:19

aggressive in the draft. He will move up if

40:22

he sees someone that he feels is worth

40:24

moving up for. He's done it in several first

40:26

rounds, did it last year with Dalton Kincaid. So

40:29

I think that will be interesting with the Bills do.

40:33

The offensive linemen, the musical

40:36

chairs of how the offensive linemen are going

40:38

to fall, we're going to see over under

40:40

9.5 offensive linemen in the first round.

40:45

And there's a good chance we see double digit offensive

40:47

linemen. So I think that will be interesting just to

40:49

see how those guys mix and match.

40:52

But I think we're going to see plenty

40:54

of trade action this year. There's no doubt

40:56

about it. You see the commanders in the

40:58

early second round, they've kind of painted themselves

41:00

into a corner with their tackle situation. They're

41:02

going to draft a quarterback of two, but

41:04

then they need a tackle, a left tackle.

41:07

And someone that can play pretty early, they

41:09

have those two picks, what is it, 36 and

41:11

40? Are they

41:14

going to package those picks and maybe go

41:16

get a Tyler Guyton or a

41:18

tackle they feel like they can step in and

41:20

be the guy that protects the blind side? Or

41:22

are they going to stay put and draft a

41:25

Kingsley-Suamatiya or Patrick Paul or one of those guys?

41:27

So the commanders are certainly a team to watch

41:29

with those two picks in the top 40. Well,

41:32

Dane, we could do this all day talking draft. We love it.

41:35

We appreciate the hard work that you do. Once again, tell everybody

41:37

where they could get the beast and where you're going to be

41:39

on draft night. Tell everybody where they could

41:41

find you over the next week or so. Yeah,

41:44

just need a subscription to the Athletic. And like I said, that draft guide's

41:46

included. And

41:48

I promise you will not be disappointed

41:51

when you get that and have it by your

41:53

side for draft weekend. I'll be in Detroit. Myself,

41:56

Robert Mays, Nate Tice will be doing

41:58

the Athletic Football Show live. from Detroit

42:00

will cover in every pick first two nights,

42:03

first three rounds. It's going to be a lot of fun. So

42:05

follow us on YouTube. We doing that.

42:08

I have a bunch of screens open, you know, so you

42:10

can follow all the, the fun coverage that'll be out there.

42:12

And it's I mean,

42:15

as much as I enjoy talking about what's going

42:17

to happen, it's even more fun talking in the

42:19

moment when picks happen and we can say, oh,

42:21

so this is why they did this. And this

42:23

is their vision for that. That's a, that's one

42:25

of my favorite parts about doing this. Yeah,

42:28

it's awesome. We love it. Again, appreciate you

42:30

joining us again, Dane and everybody go, go

42:32

check out Dane's work over at the athletic.

42:34

Thanks, man. Thanks, Dane. Thanks so much guys.

42:36

Take care. I

42:39

like that as an idea. He can remember that guy

42:41

that sends us his setup every year, his like war

42:43

room. It's got like 15 TVs. Each

42:46

one of them can be like a different stream,

42:48

right? We can have Dane and the athletic guys

42:50

on one screen, us in the PFF studio on

42:52

another screen, you know, perfect. I'm not going to

42:55

lie, but I want that guy set up. Well,

42:59

Bill Belichick is going to be live with

43:01

Pat McAfee and I'm not going to lie as you know,

43:03

we're going to be like, we're, we're competing. I've

43:05

been competing with Pat McAfee and Bill Belichick and

43:08

there's a part of me that kind of wants

43:10

to get Bill's insight on draft. It is fascinating.

43:12

We need to have that up on that TV

43:14

over there. Um, it's funny. He was

43:16

sort of talking on McAfee. He's like, yeah, you know,

43:18

I'm, I'm watching all these guys tape because we're doing

43:20

our show. I'm in at one point they were talking

43:22

about, you know, we know the hit rate on wide

43:25

receiver, I think it was wide receivers and quarterback. Wide

43:27

receivers and quarterbacks like 50 50. Well,

43:30

for you, it might be like, I'm not sure it

43:32

is for everybody else at the moment. There were the

43:35

hit rate on wide receivers seems to be a little

43:37

bit better than that for most people at the moment.

43:39

You sure. I

43:42

bet. Bill loves Keon Coleman. Yes. He

43:45

loves Keon Coleman. Which scares me. Right now. Oh,

43:47

added to the Keon Coleman propaganda file that

43:50

I'm keeping open. He is CD lamb's cousin.

43:53

CD lamb's cousin. Now here, I want to go

43:55

in a little bit. I need, so

43:58

there needs to be gradations of.

44:00

that nugget of information, right? For

44:02

example, I have cousins I've never

44:04

met, right? Yeah. Is that

44:06

a positive? Like if one of the

44:08

cousins that I've never met happens to be like a

44:10

Nobel Prize winner in something. Yeah, yeah. Do

44:13

I get a boost for that? Bloodlines. But then,

44:15

but the other thing is I also need to know what

44:18

level of cousin are we talking about here?

44:20

Is it a first cousin? Is it a

44:22

second cousin? Because, you know, this thing can

44:24

get pretty loosey-goosey. Yeah. If you've

44:26

had a second cousin that you've never met, that's

44:28

not helping. It's the

44:30

bloodlines though. If it's a first cousin with,

44:33

you know. You think that's okay? Well, if

44:35

it's the first cousin with, you know, deep

44:37

bloodline connections who you train with every Sunday,

44:39

now we're talking. That's like a positive. Like,

44:41

C.D. Lime in that case helps Keon Coleman.

44:43

If C.D. Lime happens to be- So you're

44:45

throwing that as a positive in the propaganda

44:47

fight? Right. Whereas if C.D. Lime happens to

44:49

be like a second cousin once removed that

44:51

he's never met, it's probably not

44:53

helping. Not as good. Well,

44:56

I've got, you know, I was watching Air Force

44:58

Safety Trey Taylor yesterday. Yes. Might

45:00

be a late round model guy. And then

45:02

you see, not only is he

45:05

Ed Reed's cousin- Good. Good. Big age difference

45:07

there, but he's Ed Reed's cousin. See this

45:09

is what I'm saying. Like, what type of

45:11

cousin? According to the Beast,

45:13

they talk safety play. They talk.

45:15

They're not just- So you've met him at

45:17

least. Yeah, yeah. Okay. They

45:20

talk. Right. And they talk

45:22

shop. But I feel like when you drop that, you know,

45:24

this guy is this guy's cousin. I need more information than

45:26

that in order to know what to do with that nugget.

45:29

I need what type of cousin and what kind of

45:32

relationship do they have? Otherwise don't tell me that because

45:34

it could be anything. It's important to me that the

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check it out right

46:45

now. Again,

46:49

I really do enjoy talking

46:51

to Dane. He makes

46:54

this his entire life. I assume, I mean, he says

46:56

it's 18 months of work, meaning the beast for 2025

46:58

already has. Right, began.

47:00

Right. He's got background information. He's

47:02

got a lot in there. I

47:05

will say when you look at his seven-round mock, we've

47:07

been calling this a, you know, at

47:09

this time of the year, the draft is

47:12

chalk, right? I mean, the expectations are

47:15

similar for a lot of different mock drafts. I

47:17

think there's a lot of similarities. But

47:19

I also agree with Dane, we, because of

47:21

the quarterbacks, could see a lot

47:24

of trades, the Cardinals, the Chargers kind

47:26

of holding the cards there. And,

47:28

you know, he has that, he has a couple of those trades

47:30

at four and five. So that's why I can't wait. I'm, we're

47:33

going to be live on draft night reacting. And

47:35

that is the most fun

47:37

watching what teams are actually doing in real

47:39

time. The parallels to 2021 is interesting because

47:42

remember that year pre-draft, the conversation was a

47:44

lot about how many quarterbacks can we get

47:46

in the top five? Like how many of

47:48

these five guys that we all like in

47:50

the first round, can we sort

47:52

of shoehorn consecutively in those top few

47:54

picks this year, very early. It

47:57

was like QBs are going one, two, three, and

47:59

then maybe four. if somebody wants to trade up

48:01

for that fourth guy, it's gonna be

48:03

interesting to see if that happens, right? If

48:05

somebody actually does make that trade

48:07

jump up to four for a JJ McCarthy

48:09

or whoever the fourth guy is, or

48:12

if actually, you know, when we

48:14

get, cause this is, we handed this a bit last

48:16

year as well, right, with those guys. And ultimately once

48:19

QB4 was there, everyone was like, no, not

48:22

only are we not trading up for him, but

48:24

actually we're gonna slide out of the first round

48:26

entirely. And some of that happened here where, you

48:28

know, Dane says JJ McCarthy is not the

48:31

fourth, like and Bug on ESPN was

48:33

railing against this. He's like, you're trying to tell

48:35

me he's the fourth best player? Number

48:37

one, no, nobody's trying to tell you that.

48:39

Number two, like that's

48:41

the current thing. He's not worth that in abstract

48:44

terms, but he's a quarterback, so everyone's like, well,

48:47

anyone that needs a quarterback's gotta trade up there to get him.

48:50

But does that, every time we think that,

48:52

it tends to not actually manifest and teams

48:55

are a little bit more self-restrained than that

48:57

and do let that slide happen. The reason

48:59

why JJ McCarthy could slide, so the betting

49:01

market over at CERCA came

49:03

out with over unders on where guys would get picked. The

49:07

thing that stood out to me was Michael Penix Jr. and

49:09

Bo Nix basically being right at 32, I forget

49:11

the exact number, but the expectation

49:13

was that they're gonna get picked, you know, higher or lower

49:15

than 32. Right, are they, yeah. And

49:19

we've been debating, and look, I've

49:21

said before, I wouldn't be surprised if there were

49:23

some teams who would be

49:26

willing to pick Michael Penix Jr. in the

49:28

top 10. I wouldn't be

49:30

surprised by that, I'll say. But

49:34

there's only so many teams to pick, that's where that

49:36

number comes from, plus it's the buzz, plus

49:39

it's probably this assumption that, okay, there'll be a top

49:41

three that goes, and then to

49:43

your point, does JJ McCarthy then fall?

49:46

Because the other thing that happened, and then it's him, by the way.

49:48

It could be Drake May. It could be Drake May. So

49:51

far, we've talked to a bunch of people, one

49:54

of whom thinks Drake May is

49:56

actually the best quarterback, that's not out yet,

49:58

right? That's coming this week. But one

50:00

of whom thinks JJ or Drake may is

50:02

the best quarterback available all of his sort

50:05

of flaws or negatives are a nice Eminently

50:07

fixable and he'll be good. Everyone else is

50:09

terrified of Drake man actually gone, dude. There's

50:11

some real problems here Don't love it. It's

50:14

entirely possible Drake made becomes QB for in

50:16

the guy that slides as well as you

50:18

know It being Jamie JJ McCarthy The

50:21

other point I was gonna make like we don't

50:24

know I so it's easy to look at last

50:26

year where Bryce young went one CJ Stroud to

50:28

Anthony Richardson goes for yep And

50:31

then will Lewis was the fourth quarterback off

50:33

the board was supposed to be the fourth QB off the

50:35

board and he didn't go Until the second round. Mm-hmm. However,

50:39

the Titans by all reports were trying

50:41

to trade into the first right to

50:43

get will Lewis so the

50:45

results are often driven by You

50:48

know things out of the control right for the

50:50

for the rest of eternity Will Lewis

50:52

is a second round quarterback, but if a trade could

50:54

have just been worked out with the Titans He's a

50:57

first round quarterback. Yeah, fine line between right. But the

50:59

point is they passed on him, right? Like they were

51:01

they did they passed on him at 11, right? Yes,

51:03

so that's the thing Like give me the give me

51:05

the guard conversion, right? So like in this in this

51:08

if you translate that to this draft Right

51:10

if a team like you know

51:13

a team like Denver or the Raiders or whatever could

51:15

be trying to trade back into the first round for

51:17

that guy But they also could

51:19

have just taken him at 12 or 13 or

51:21

whatever right or the Vikings, you know They could

51:24

train up they could the Vikings could do anything They have

51:26

the ammunition to get pretty much anywhere in this draft Or

51:29

they could sit there at 11 select a quarterback or they could

51:31

pass on a quarterback at 11 grab one

51:33

later at 23 Whatever my point being

51:36

you know, if right now we're sort of going QBs are going 1

51:38

2 3 4 But

51:40

in that realm of in that spectrum whoever

51:43

QB 4 is they could go

51:45

number 4 overall They could go anywhere from 4

51:47

to 11 with a team trading up.

51:49

I had to get ahead of Minnesota They

51:52

could go number 11 if Minnesota has the discipline

51:54

to sit there wait Trust

51:56

the board and assume that that guy's gonna slip to them,

51:59

Minnesota could on that guy and they

52:01

could go anywhere from four to 23 when the Vikings

52:03

come up again or from 11 to

52:05

23 when the Vikings come up again or

52:08

it could be like a Will Levis style fall

52:10

where everyone's like now I'm not taking that guy.

52:12

I don't think that there's I think there's more

52:15

QB needy teams this year. Maybe

52:17

but there's more QB you I don't think it

52:19

happens either but if you were saying this a

52:21

year ago that one of these four guys is

52:23

gonna slip out of the first round entirely you

52:25

would have been told you were an idiot you

52:28

know what I mean so we yeah it's like we don't know

52:31

I don't want to be as much I'm an idiot I don't

52:33

know but as much as everyone is saying it's going QB one

52:35

two three four like one

52:37

of these guys might not one of these guys

52:39

could slide easily and not just slide till to

52:41

11 slide further than that like if

52:43

you're looking at this and saying we don't

52:46

think QB four is he is good why

52:49

would you take him at 11 or 12 or 13

52:51

just because you need a QB like either

52:54

don't take him then come back in the

52:56

second round or take it I think that

52:58

that's gonna depend on how you tier the

53:00

quarterback right because there will be some buildings

53:02

where QB four I'm gonna call it JJ

53:05

McCarthy right now okay there's gonna be some

53:07

buildings where JJ McCarthy is closer to Pennick's

53:09

Nick or simply not even like QB four

53:12

like there will be buildings will absolutely

53:14

be buildings that have Michael

53:16

Pennick's in particular ranked

53:18

higher than one of those four guys yes

53:21

I mean I know that for

53:23

a fact right so you

53:26

know those guys could contribute to QB

53:28

four the consensus QB for sliding

53:30

right like if one of the raider

53:32

if the Raiders just select Michael Pennick's

53:34

junior at 13 whilst JJ

53:36

McCarthy or whoever QB four is is

53:38

on the board that contributes to his

53:41

flight I always love the insider reports that

53:43

are like this quarterback was the number one

53:45

quarterback on 17 boards or at

53:47

least 17 boards like you have enough

53:50

contacts and you got that exact question now to

53:52

at least 17 teams to

53:55

tell you the number one QB and you can report

53:57

that those are always interesting right that's enough QB talk

54:00

we said we were gonna split, would not do it.

54:02

And we're doing it. And it's you, B. Other things

54:04

we need to talk about. Did you see what

54:07

Washington did yesterday with

54:09

prospects coming in for visits? Yeah,

54:13

so you wanted to talk their quarterback visits.

54:15

No, they did not just bring in

54:17

all the quarterbacks. Oh, they went to top golf. Did

54:19

you hear what they did? How

54:21

many people do you think Washington had in yesterday?

54:26

Oh, I didn't see all. I just heard all the

54:28

quarterbacks coming in. That's what I thought it was, right?

54:30

It turns out it was significantly more than that. They

54:32

brought everybody. Guess how many they brought in? Washington

54:37

brought in 30 prospects, yes. They did

54:39

all their 30 visits in one day? They

54:42

brought in 30 prospects at the same

54:45

time, at the end. Went

54:47

to top golf, as you said, including

54:49

the top quarterback prospects. Went to top

54:51

golf. Apparently, the

54:53

rationale for this, I was listening

54:55

to Burt Breer on Rich Eisen.

54:58

The rationale for this was essentially, okay, they've

55:00

had a bunch of one-on-ones with all these

55:03

guys already, right? They've had their, apparently, your

55:05

three Zoom calls up to an hour each,

55:08

in addition to the combine time that you get, blah,

55:10

blah, blah. They've had plenty of one-on-one time, and they

55:12

will have more one-on-one time during the

55:14

visit where they're actually there. But

55:16

what they wanted to do was say, all right, this is

55:19

as late as we're gonna get in the process. The deadline

55:21

for the 30 visits is yesterday, I think. So

55:23

the last day, they could do it, which

55:25

means you are the furthest along in the

55:27

process you can possibly be. You have the

55:29

most information, you're basically set. So

55:31

what they wanna do is they wanna

55:34

get everyone in, all 30 guys

55:36

in, like create this environment

55:38

of like a team, you know, like

55:40

a team environment, and then they wanna

55:42

watch. Watch them and they wanna see

55:44

who the alpha is, who emerges as

55:46

the leader in the group, right? We're

55:48

selecting one of these QBs, which

55:51

one are the 30 people gonna gravitate

55:53

to, you know? Is J.J.

55:55

McCarthy, is he gonna be the alpha, or

55:57

is he just gonna actually hang around the periphery?

56:00

and let let Jayden Daniels take

56:02

over so that's what they wanted

56:04

to do and then you bring him to top golf

56:06

add some competition into this the whole thing dynamic gotta

56:09

love that gotta love that I'm

56:12

so I'm just interested in where you weigh

56:14

that right not to get too nerdy

56:17

on this but everything everything's

56:20

like whether you want it to be or not it's an

56:22

equation right it's some sort of mathematical equation because at the

56:24

end of the day you need to

56:26

put a number next to a player's name

56:28

but also right so where does this way

56:30

you know like so if they might have they

56:32

may have graded Drake May after all of that

56:35

other stuff as the top quarterback but

56:37

if Jayden Daniels the top golf alpha yeah how

56:39

much how much do you weigh this that you

56:41

know is that 20% is your your final

56:44

is often 20% of your grade

56:46

right is it 20% but also

56:48

do the players know that when they're like

56:50

when of course they do hey

56:52

I'm going to they know right we've heard enough

56:54

the agents agents are in tune to that they

56:56

want to see you so what then they're playing

56:59

the game too so what are the instructions the

57:01

agent is issuing to each one of these guys

57:03

knowing that they are being sent to this Lord

57:05

of the Fly or yeah Lord of the Flies

57:08

type environment where you have to emerge as the

57:10

kid with the conch right are they sending

57:12

him in there going is Drake May's agent sending

57:14

him in there look here's

57:17

here's the here's the SP Drake right

57:19

you are being sent in there you

57:21

need to be the guy right so

57:23

you go in there and alpha harder

57:25

than everybody else and make sure that

57:27

everyone gravitates to you are they just

57:29

like all the quarterbacks are there trying

57:32

to out alpha each other and

57:34

get the environment gravitating

57:36

to them as so this is what as

57:38

a data guy I would

57:41

love to know if the top

57:43

golf experiment had happened over the last 10 years

57:46

and you did this with the 2017 class

57:48

and you have you have Mahomes

57:51

Watson and Trevis key in

57:53

the top golf experiment do

57:55

you think Mahomes wins right

57:57

do you think that you think the person it's not

57:59

even a win or loss type the thing. Forget a

58:02

lot of these psychology experiments are not you know,

58:05

who's better, who's worse. It's just you know,

58:07

the value it's subjective, right? This Yeah, I

58:09

have the beholder like this is the best

58:11

outcome type of thing. Not like this is

58:14

this guy's number one, this guy's two, three

58:16

would in 2018 would Josh

58:18

Allen and Lamar Jackson rise to the top

58:20

over Baker Mayfield, right? Rosen top golf feels

58:23

like it's muddying the waters. Let's forget top

58:25

golf for the moment. I'm calling at the

58:27

top golf experiment, but it's fine. It's the

58:29

idea of in like if you threw 40

58:32

people in a room with the 2021 draft class of

58:35

QBs, which one of the five first rounders

58:38

would be the alpha? Which one would they all gravitate

58:40

to? And we're not Mack Jones. We know that for

58:42

a fact. What do you want? Yeah, it's not

58:44

going to be Mack. It's probably not going to be Zach

58:46

Wilson. It's one of the other three. But

58:49

Trevor's so like cool and laid back. I don't

58:51

know if that I don't know if that would

58:53

play but it's Trevor field probably not Lance either

58:55

Trevor fields. So

58:58

it's getting out and if it's getting a part of the

59:00

way that Trevor one then good if you say fields one

59:02

then it's like oh no throw this thing out. Right. But

59:05

it's getting you part of the way there. If it's

59:07

just from what we know, it's probably one of those

59:09

two guys even if you go back to 2018. Okay,

59:13

2018 we've got what Darnell Rosen Baker, Josh

59:15

Allen and Lamar of if you throw all

59:17

those guys in the room and Rudolph gets

59:19

invited through 30 prospects

59:22

who are they all gravitating to?

59:25

It's either it's one

59:27

of the three that are it's one of

59:29

the two good ones. Mar Alyn or Baker. Yeah, it's

59:31

one of the two good ones in Baker. I could

59:33

buy that. So so

59:36

it's there. There's a lot of other tests. I

59:38

like this. I think they've cracked it. I think

59:41

I think that crazy new billionaire. 2011

59:44

Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbard or Jake

59:46

lock definitely can't even ponder definitely Cam Newton

59:48

definitely can all gravitate to camp. Now the

59:50

problem is when you get the T vote.

59:53

They're all gravitating to thinking about that the other

59:55

day because I was I was joking on Twitter about

59:58

how if I when I'm GM, I I

1:00:00

promise you I will take every quarterback to

1:00:02

dinner because I want the

1:00:04

steak dinner every year. Sure. I'm gonna tell

1:00:06

my owners we have to do our due diligence on the QB class. And

1:00:09

I think this QB class is 10 deep this year. Right. So

1:00:12

we need at least 10 steak dinners. So I'll go

1:00:14

to all of them. And somebody was joking about

1:00:16

how when the Patriots brought Tebow in and

1:00:18

they took him out to the not end and everything, you

1:00:20

know, and took him out. And

1:00:22

I think that was pre-draft. And

1:00:25

why, like, if you were Josh, remember

1:00:27

Josh McDaniels traded up to go get Tim Tebow.

1:00:31

And if you had only been around Tom Brady

1:00:33

for the last 10 years, and in your

1:00:35

head you're like, I need a guy like this. I

1:00:38

need a guy who is so obsessed with getting better.

1:00:40

I need, forget the talent, right?

1:00:42

Because that's the Tom Brady. Oh, he's not the most talented

1:00:44

guy in the world, but you know he's gonna outwork everybody.

1:00:46

Literally going to do it. He's so obsessed with winning. Like,

1:00:49

can't you understand why Josh McDaniels was

1:00:52

attracted to Tim Tebow and why the

1:00:54

Patriots actually wind and dined him

1:00:56

and got to know him and then actually signed him a couple

1:00:58

years ago. Like, don't you get it? I mean, forget the throwing

1:01:00

mechanics and the fact that he wasn't actually good at quarterback, but

1:01:03

don't you get it? Like, you think you found

1:01:06

the thing that the quarterback needs to

1:01:08

be successful and overcome deficiencies. But the other thing is

1:01:11

that we never factor in. You also have to bear

1:01:13

in mind. Not then, not then in Boston. You also

1:01:15

have to bear in mind what that draft class was,

1:01:17

right? This is like when we analyze the.

1:01:19

Jimmy Glaussen. Yeah, when we analyze

1:01:21

the Julio Jones trade, right?

1:01:24

It's like, and compare it to this year.

1:01:26

If Buffalo, what if Buffalo does the Julio

1:01:28

Jones trade? This year, the draft class receiver

1:01:30

looks absolutely loaded. The draft class or receiver

1:01:33

when the Julio Jones trade happened ended at

1:01:35

Julio Jones. It's like, it's AJ Green and

1:01:37

Julio Jones. And then there are no more

1:01:39

good receivers to be had in this draft,

1:01:42

right? The quarterback class when Tim Tebow was

1:01:44

drafted, Sam Bradford went number one

1:01:46

overall, right? It was a top end

1:01:48

prospect, albeit with some injury history already.

1:01:51

Then it was Tebow. And then

1:01:54

it was Jimmy Claussen, Colt McCoy,

1:01:56

Mike Kafka, John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton,

1:01:58

whoever the hell that is. Rusty

1:02:00

Smith, Dan LaFever, Tony

1:02:03

Pike, Joe Webb, Levi Brown, Sean

1:02:05

Canfield, you waiting for it? Zach

1:02:08

Robinson. Zach Robinson, seventh rounder. Seventh

1:02:10

rounder, almost. He

1:02:12

was only six picks away from being Mr.

1:02:14

Irrelevant. Good for Zach. Good

1:02:16

for Zach. My point being,

1:02:18

right, Sam Bradford goes number one overall. You're picking in

1:02:20

the first round, you need a quarterback. It's

1:02:23

like either I believe in Tim Tebow

1:02:25

or I'm screwed because there's nobody else.

1:02:28

I mean, Josh McDaniel's also like booted Jake Cutler

1:02:30

out the door. I understand that.

1:02:33

But my point being like you can understand.

1:02:35

That had already happened. You could understand a

1:02:37

degree of looking at the landscape and saying,

1:02:39

and like speaking it into existence,

1:02:41

right? It's like my two choices right

1:02:43

now, having already decided I'm getting rid

1:02:45

of Jake Cutler are I

1:02:48

believe in Tim Tebow or

1:02:50

I'm kind of screwed because my alternatives are Jimmy

1:02:52

Clossen and Colt McCoy. All right, let's play this

1:02:55

social experiment game again. It's 2020. My

1:02:58

last point on that. So I think you

1:03:00

can dismiss the Tim Tebow year as

1:03:03

an absence of alternatives. Desperation. It's like,

1:03:05

okay, yeah. That would get you in

1:03:07

trouble because Sam Bradford versus

1:03:09

Tim Tebow. And clearly the room is

1:03:11

gravitating towards Tim Tebow over Sam Bradford,

1:03:13

right? But I think you can dismiss

1:03:15

that in that it's just two options. You

1:03:18

know? Here's the other thing I wanted to bring up. Teams

1:03:21

have, there's a lot of non-Wonderlic

1:03:25

tests that players are going through. Psychology

1:03:27

tests and interviews and everything. And they're

1:03:29

not, like the Wonderlic is like a,

1:03:32

it's like a fact-based test, right? There's a right or wrong

1:03:34

answer and you get a score. But

1:03:37

some of the psychology tests that they take, there's not

1:03:39

right or wrong answers, right? So

1:03:42

it's almost like personality tests. And

1:03:44

so I've heard stories of quarterbacks that

1:03:47

would go in there and they're so prepared

1:03:50

in the test, and there's no right or wrong answers. And

1:03:52

the quarterback will go in there and say, they'll

1:03:55

ask like, you know, what's your favorite animal?

1:03:58

And they'll just be like, I just love football. Right?

1:04:00

Like they're so trained by their agents to be like

1:04:02

just tell them you love ball. They need to know

1:04:04

that you love football You have

1:04:06

to love ball And so they'll

1:04:08

and it's like no We'll

1:04:11

call them Josh. No Josh Please

1:04:14

just answer the question. There's no right or wrong answer

1:04:16

Like they're really just trying to get to the heart

1:04:18

of like what type of player they are Yeah, and

1:04:20

sometimes it's like this guy's an introvert this guy's a

1:04:22

leader this guy's and it's and it's up to a

1:04:24

whole bunch of interpreted

1:04:26

data points or whatever So

1:04:30

if if you it's two things Did

1:04:33

Washington use all of their 30 visits if people

1:04:35

don't know a 30 visit which is

1:04:37

sometimes wrongly called a top 30 visit It's not your top

1:04:39

30 players you get 30 In-person

1:04:42

visits with players does this mean Washington used

1:04:44

all 30 in one swoop with them or

1:04:46

this was a this was

1:04:48

all of them Right. Yeah, I believe so If

1:04:50

you're the first time they've ever done this if

1:04:52

my understanding of Burt's report is to be believed

1:04:54

that is what they did They got all 30

1:04:56

guys in at the same time having done all

1:04:58

their their work and the one-on-ones in the zoom

1:05:00

calls and stuff Their their use

1:05:02

their deployment of the 30 visits Was

1:05:05

to bring them all in and put them in

1:05:07

a Lord of the Flies environment So you see

1:05:09

which quarterback gravitate they gravitate it grabs the car

1:05:11

I I think they've cracked it right Josh Harris

1:05:14

the crazy new billionaire. I think has nailed it

1:05:16

Here's another one interesting draft class right the

1:05:18

2020 draft class. That's what I was

1:05:21

gonna bring up Joe burrow Yeah to a

1:05:23

tug of a lower Justin Herbert Jalen

1:05:26

hurts Jordan love Jordan love Jalen

1:05:28

Jalen hurts. This one's interesting You'll then you

1:05:30

get to Jacob Beeson by a lot, but

1:05:32

Jake Jalen hurts

1:05:34

would win that one. Yes, I

1:05:36

think this thing is I think they've done it

1:05:39

I think this is the best Indicator now

1:05:41

all I need now if I'm a

1:05:43

billionaire all I want is the s2

1:05:46

score and the top golf test All

1:05:48

right 2015

1:05:51

okay, Miss Winston Marcus, Marios Jamis

1:05:54

they're gravitating to Jamis, but they ended up being the same

1:05:56

guy right so it doesn't matter Jared

1:06:00

Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton

1:06:02

Lynch, but then if you

1:06:05

did invite, but then listen, Connor Cook, and

1:06:09

if you invited Dak Prescott, you

1:06:12

know Dak wins that. Yeah,

1:06:14

probably. But now this

1:06:17

is just hindsight bias. It is, yeah. No, I

1:06:19

don't know. I think most of them so far

1:06:21

haven't been. The 2017

1:06:23

one is interesting, which that would be. Because

1:06:27

it's probably- 2017 is Mahomes, Trubisky, and Watson. And

1:06:29

it's probably one of the latter two. I

1:06:32

doubt- Water mohomes. Yeah, I don't think

1:06:34

Trubisky would have won the gravitational, the

1:06:39

top golf test. I just don't. I don't

1:06:41

see it. The top golf test. How about 2022? Kenny

1:06:44

Pickett, Sam Howell, Malik Willis,

1:06:46

Desmond Ritter, and who am

1:06:49

I missing? Sam Howell, Desmond Ritter,

1:06:51

Malik Willis, just a bit, right? There

1:06:54

was five I thought that were, oh,

1:06:57

Matt Corral was the guy we were thinking of. And

1:06:59

you know who wouldn't have been invited was Brock Purdy. Correct.

1:07:03

Purdy wouldn't have been invited. Sam

1:07:05

Howell probably wins that, right? I

1:07:08

don't know. This is a guessing game.

1:07:10

I don't know enough about their personalities. Right.

1:07:13

But I have a theory sometimes that the

1:07:15

quarterbacks, you can learn a lot

1:07:17

by just how they answer questions and everything, and

1:07:19

they almost kinda play the same way. Did you

1:07:21

see the report that, I

1:07:24

forget, I don't remember where I read this

1:07:27

from, but it was basically suggesting that Sam

1:07:29

Howell could not exist as a

1:07:32

backup to, I

1:07:34

think it was specifically Drake May in

1:07:37

Washington, but they were like, he's too much of an alpha.

1:07:39

Like he can, the team would just gravitate

1:07:42

to Sam Howell. You couldn't have him behind

1:07:44

a dude who's coming in to try and

1:07:46

win that job. They're like, it wouldn't work.

1:07:48

We need to get him out of the

1:07:50

building because that guy is too much of

1:07:52

a dog. He'll

1:07:55

just take over. It'll be his team. It'll still be his

1:07:57

team. You need to get him out of there. So they

1:07:59

ship him off. to Seattle. So

1:08:01

Sam how would have aced the top golf test?

1:08:03

He would have been the number one overall pick.

1:08:07

Or at least number 20. I

1:08:10

don't know if I like the alpha test. I like it. I like the

1:08:12

alpha. I want to know who got it. No. So

1:08:14

Adam Peters is the new general manager. I want to know,

1:08:16

is this something he's been

1:08:18

sitting there in San Francisco the last few years and

1:08:20

everything? Is this something he's been sitting on for years?

1:08:22

Because you know, every future GM is like when I'm

1:08:24

in the seat like I do, when I'm in the

1:08:26

seat, here's how I'm gonna do it. This

1:08:29

is like your learning. Like when I'm in

1:08:31

the seat, I'm going to draft with the I'm going to

1:08:33

draft like this. And we're going to win championship. So this

1:08:35

is like your I'm going to draft like this. This is

1:08:38

like your just cover the space thing you

1:08:40

had a while ago, you know, or if you

1:08:42

just use the hot the heat mats, they're like,

1:08:44

here's where my defensive where the passes are going.

1:08:46

My defensive strategy is to not to call coverages,

1:08:49

but to simply call where the offense throws the

1:08:51

ball, right? Cover the hot spots with

1:08:53

players. You're going to reinvent effectively zonal coverage,

1:08:55

except instead of like the areas of the

1:08:57

field that are drawn up on a chalkboard,

1:09:00

you're gonna your zones are going to correspond

1:09:02

to heat maps, and therefore

1:09:04

be better. This is

1:09:06

what this is, right? You're saying Adam Peters is Adam,

1:09:09

he's been devising this for the last like

1:09:11

six years in a dark room somewhere going

1:09:13

on. I'm when I'm running the show, the

1:09:16

only thing we're going to do is zoom calls

1:09:18

and the top golf test. Yeah, so I want

1:09:20

to know was this? Or

1:09:22

was this just Josh Harris being

1:09:25

like, as billionaires tend to do, I read

1:09:27

a book, I read a book on the

1:09:29

best way to find out the best alpha and we're going to

1:09:31

do it this way. Because this was like

1:09:33

when Adam Peters was interviewing to become

1:09:36

GM clearly he was like, this must have

1:09:38

come off either Adam was like, hey, this is this big idea I

1:09:40

have. Or Josh Harris is like, hey,

1:09:43

if you get hired, by the way, here's how we're doing

1:09:45

these visits. I need to know. I

1:09:48

can ask a real Oscar

1:09:50

last last last case study for you

1:09:52

can get a copy of golf here. Here you go. 2019. Kyler

1:09:55

Murray, Daniel Jones.

1:10:00

Dwayne Haskins the late Dwayne

1:10:02

Haskins a drew lock will Greer

1:10:05

Ryan Finley jack sit him Easton stick Clayton

1:10:07

Thorsten They all lose Gardner Minshew

1:10:10

the two people that get gravitated

1:10:12

to our Kyla Murray and

1:10:14

Gardner This is flawless. This

1:10:16

is yet to fail the only failure for this

1:10:18

test has been Tim Tebow And we can dismiss

1:10:20

that as a weird year with only two options.

1:10:23

This is Absolute

1:10:25

hindsight bias. No, it's

1:10:27

not Because

1:10:29

then she was a man she was a bad

1:10:31

ass So easy to predict then you need to

1:10:34

then predict this year's class at Topgolf predict this

1:10:36

year for Washington If it's so easy, it's easy

1:10:38

in hindsight because we didn't know who knew what

1:10:40

minchu was Oh, he's gonna wear, you know, jean

1:10:42

shorts and travel because his entire steak

1:10:44

everyone knew minchu was awesome Yeah, but the

1:10:47

stick doesn't matter if he doesn't like play decent

1:10:49

football, right? It's just like oh, whatever Like Luke

1:10:51

Fogg could have been that awesome guy, but he

1:10:53

wasn't good at throwing balls. Luke Fogg could not

1:10:55

have been that guy All right, so

1:10:58

predictive if it's so easy to predict. Okay Predict

1:11:01

the alpha game this year Drake May

1:11:03

Jaden Daniels who was invited. Is

1:11:05

it just the top every quarter back? Not

1:11:08

name An example names I think panics Nixon

1:11:10

Rattler. Well, they all invited of Rattlers. I

1:11:12

pretty sure all right. Let's pretend they all

1:11:14

were Okay. All right. So

1:11:16

everybody up to Rattler is invited. Yeah, two

1:11:18

through seven who wins the

1:11:20

alpha game this year The two

1:11:22

the two names would be panics and McCarthy I

1:11:26

think panics and McCarthy would be the out would

1:11:28

be the top winners. Definitely think panics. Yeah, panics

1:11:30

and McCarthy And it reminds me a little bit

1:11:33

of Geno Smith with that Subtle

1:11:35

confidence like go ahead. Yeah, go ahead

1:11:37

doubt me. They go right back. I

1:11:39

ain't right back. Yeah Uh-huh, panic

1:11:42

has some of that too on my and then I think McCarthy's

1:11:44

the other guy You

1:11:46

don't know enough about Drake May You

1:11:48

don't know enough about Drake. I'm telling you that

1:11:50

look you're why do you hate the Drake? Huh?

1:11:52

You hate the Drake I don't hate the Drake.

1:11:54

I just don't think he's with look if this

1:11:56

is a dude They his own the report that

1:11:58

I can't remember or verify was

1:12:01

that Sam Howell would like out alpha Drake May

1:12:03

by a factor of a million so we got

1:12:05

to trade him away. That man's not winning the

1:12:07

top golf test. What

1:12:10

about Jayden man? If he can't out alpha

1:12:12

Sam Howell he can't win the test. Jayden

1:12:15

had so I want

1:12:17

to go back through history this is very anecdotal

1:12:19

I'm gonna bring this up. Yeah. Jayden

1:12:21

Daniels had some teammates at

1:12:23

Arizona State when he left they

1:12:25

basically said good riddance. Right? Good

1:12:27

see you later. Now he went to LSU and

1:12:31

became a Heisman Trophy winner had one of the best

1:12:33

seasons in college football history last year so does that

1:12:35

actually matter. Josh Rosen came

1:12:37

out people didn't want to go to his birthday. Teammates

1:12:40

didn't want to go to his birthday. He would definitely not

1:12:42

have won the alpha test. He was hot

1:12:45

tubbing as a true freshman you know he was

1:12:48

entitled kid. Right. Wouldn't have won it. Not a

1:12:50

chance. Mark Sanchez

1:12:52

declared early. Pete Carroll said

1:12:54

I don't know if it's a good idea. His head on his own

1:12:56

head coach at USC. I don't know if it's a good idea. DeShawn

1:13:00

Kaiser came out they asked

1:13:02

Brian Kelly his head coach say some nice things about

1:13:04

the Sean Kaiser didn't do it. Nope didn't

1:13:06

say some nice things. I'm just saying anecdotally through the

1:13:08

years the other one I'll use and I know this

1:13:10

didn't perfectly turn out well but to Sean Watson when

1:13:12

he came out of Clemson Dabo

1:13:14

Sweeney said he's Michael Jordan.

1:13:16

That dude's that dude's amazing. Now he

1:13:18

may have had some similar

1:13:21

Jordan addiction tendencies as well

1:13:24

so that part of it wasn't great but as far

1:13:26

as on the field DeShawn Watson for those first few

1:13:28

years Dabo looked good. So

1:13:30

very anecdotally in

1:13:32

some of the public statements that coaches have made

1:13:34

there might be some some kernels of

1:13:37

truth in there. Similar Jordan addiction

1:13:39

tendencies. You really you

1:13:42

love getting us into legal trouble don't you? Yeah. Okay.

1:13:45

I'm just saying what? You know

1:13:47

email us in with who you think would win

1:13:49

the top golf test. You would get well we'll

1:13:51

cut that out of the podcast. NFLPodcasts.PFF.com. I think

1:13:54

you asked me to predict. I think that JJ

1:13:56

McCarthy and Michael Pennics would be the top golf

1:13:58

winners of the test this year. So

1:14:00

I have both retroactively proved that it's

1:14:02

flawless and predicted the winners this year

1:14:05

You've got Michael Pennix and JJ McCarthy.

1:14:07

So you would let Drake may drop

1:14:11

Purely based off the alpha test. Yes, it's

1:14:14

flawless. It apparently has no no flaw Anyway,

1:14:16

let us know in the chat or an

1:14:18

email who wins the alpha test.

1:14:20

So let us move on from that You

1:14:23

have more to talk about. Yeah, the Did

1:14:26

you see the article the Patriots article the

1:14:28

bill Belichick the latest bill

1:14:30

Belichick Why did bill Belichick not get

1:14:32

a job this year the fact is

1:14:34

unemployable apparently It

1:14:36

was fascinating the they kind of

1:14:39

documented the the interview process with

1:14:41

Atlanta, which obviously featured the yacht

1:14:44

As all good billionaire stories do he had his interview

1:14:46

on the yacht He thought the job was his and

1:14:49

it turns out he wasn't even the top three of the

1:14:51

Falcons sort of brass They had a vote. They

1:14:53

literally were asked to rank their options Who do

1:14:55

you want his head coach one two three? Belichick

1:14:58

did not appear in the top three of

1:15:00

this list, which apparently went where he Mars

1:15:02

number one Mike

1:15:05

McDonald number two and PFF

1:15:07

Bobby Bobby Slovak number three I've always said

1:15:09

Bobby was a better coach than Bill Belichick

1:15:11

exactly always said that and Bill Belichick not

1:15:13

in the rankings But

1:15:16

it features some interesting nuggets number

1:15:19

one Belichick

1:15:21

effectively just wants to bring the same old

1:15:23

coaches with him. Yeah, we'll get you know,

1:15:26

Patricia and Joe judge and Josh

1:15:28

McDaniel they get the whole band back together They

1:15:31

were asked like he was apparently asked like why had they

1:15:33

failed outside of New England, you know Why are all why

1:15:36

were all these guys bad when you're not there to

1:15:38

which you apparently said they're better soldiers than

1:15:41

generals Which I'm sure they

1:15:43

they're very pleased to see written out there, you know

1:15:45

put out there in the public sphere But

1:15:48

it might be it's just it's an interesting thing

1:15:50

to drop Belichick apparently asked

1:15:52

the Falcons why they didn't have Workout

1:15:55

bonuses in their contracts, you know, he one of the

1:15:57

things that he'd like to do in New England was

1:16:00

Don't work out bonuses to get everybody in

1:16:02

there in the off season and foster this

1:16:04

team building environment. yeah, fuck is why they

1:16:06

didn't do that. And a date really don't

1:16:08

do that. They're like das last I think

1:16:10

in terms a guaranteed money that they give

1:16:13

access things to which they apparently replied. Savages.

1:16:15

Never done it in Atlanta. Your

1:16:18

two. Sisters never done it here. Which.

1:16:20

Is a terrible answer to any questions.

1:16:22

Ah, but nonetheless the one that he

1:16:24

received. I'm. And. It was based he say and

1:16:27

the other. To. The not going to this was that.

1:16:29

Robert. Kraft and and Arthur Blank are

1:16:31

billionaire buddies. They're. Apparently

1:16:33

very tight and enough. To

1:16:37

smear now attack there are there blank on

1:16:39

the phone as I die in our this

1:16:41

guy got dressed as interesting as what it

1:16:43

was. sad. Part

1:16:46

I mean I C B D at a time

1:16:48

when it happened it felt like well Atlanta's not

1:16:50

ready to completely by in and give dollar check

1:16:52

on the power. Because. That's. Essentially

1:16:55

what it would need to be, but it did. so.

1:16:57

The other thing in this article which isn't. It

1:17:00

doesn't suit of appear in any of the

1:17:02

aggregator you know headlines. Last take away from

1:17:04

the peace because it's hard to discern I

1:17:07

think. but one of the most important piece

1:17:09

of information I think in that article was

1:17:11

a dollar check. Was happy to give up

1:17:13

that power. I they are. Because

1:17:15

that would be that when you do if analyzing

1:17:17

the the time like dude it's a tough sell

1:17:20

for due to Bella checks age for teams just

1:17:22

toss the keys to him and say go nuts

1:17:24

right reorganize the thing have you want to done.

1:17:27

All. The Powers to you. He

1:17:29

apparently was perfectly willing to sit a say

1:17:32

I will work with the Gm I'm not,

1:17:34

I don't want. I fact, I'm eager to

1:17:36

give up the Gm side of it and

1:17:38

just beat head Coach Bill Belichick again. Now

1:17:40

the Canada that is there. Like while you

1:17:42

might say that, but ultimately if it's like

1:17:44

which guy you gonna listen to Bill Belichick

1:17:46

vs light second year Gm. It.

1:17:49

Can end up being in the hallway anyway. Now.

1:17:51

That's. As maybe, but at least

1:17:54

theoretically Bella check was not demanding.

1:17:56

That. Kind of control, in fact, was

1:17:58

eager to cede badly. control and work

1:18:00

with a general manager. That's

1:18:03

interesting to me. I just don't know.

1:18:06

Yeah, I don't know how well that would work. Same,

1:18:08

but that, like, that I think is a pretty

1:18:10

important piece of information that like he's not, you

1:18:13

know, this is not a, that's not a prerequisite to

1:18:15

hiring Bill Belichick, the head coach is you got to

1:18:17

get, you know, you got to be a team without

1:18:19

a GM, you got to see it all controlled to

1:18:21

him, yada, yada. It doesn't appear that that's the case.

1:18:23

I feel like it was, I think the bottom line,

1:18:25

no matter what the information was, it came down to

1:18:27

the age thing, right? It's like, I think that's a

1:18:29

big part of it. So Belichick was going to say,

1:18:31

we're going to get the band back together. That means

1:18:33

I need to, we're firing everybody.

1:18:36

We're bringing in this whole new group. It's my group.

1:18:39

There's no successor in this group

1:18:42

because he just called them soldiers,

1:18:44

not generals. And

1:18:46

I'm going to, and it's a two or three year

1:18:49

rebuild. Maybe it's closer because it's Atlanta

1:18:51

and they have a good roster. But

1:18:53

Belichick still has a very specific type of

1:18:55

player that he likes and

1:18:57

would, you know, they're going to have to overhaul the roster. So

1:19:00

I think that was probably at

1:19:02

the end of the day, the biggest issue. And then, and

1:19:04

again, the most recent thing that they saw was

1:19:07

four years of below

1:19:09

average play from the Patriots, four straight

1:19:11

years, one good year in there,

1:19:14

but four straight years, the totality of post Tom

1:19:16

Brady has been pretty poor in

1:19:18

New England. And so that's the

1:19:20

most recent thing that they saw in Atlanta,

1:19:23

rather than getting, you know, more of like

1:19:25

an upstart younger coach. Yeah, I think a

1:19:27

big determining factor is it was

1:19:30

the feeling that the, that

1:19:32

Belichick is a short term option. There was

1:19:34

a suggestion within the article that Belichick is

1:19:36

basically only interested in 15 more wins to

1:19:38

pass Don Shula and then he's out, right?

1:19:41

Like he said previously that he didn't want

1:19:43

to coach into his seventies. He's deep into

1:19:45

it deep. He's into his seventies now. So

1:19:48

either he's completely changed his mind on that, or

1:19:51

he's trying to chase that number. And then he's out. And

1:19:54

if that, that becomes a much tougher sell.

1:19:56

If it's like we could bring in Belichick

1:19:59

completely. overhaul the structure of

1:20:01

the building in some way shape or form

1:20:03

even if we're not You know seating all

1:20:05

general manager power to him It's

1:20:07

a fairly significant overhaul to just make

1:20:09

it the Belichick way, right?

1:20:13

For like a two-year thing and then he's

1:20:15

gonna bounce because he's past Shula now What do we

1:20:17

do? There's no success can't turn it over to Josh

1:20:19

McDaniels because apparently he's the worst head coach of all

1:20:21

time And he's only a soldier

1:20:23

not a not agenda, right? So we're screwed

1:20:25

like none of these guys are the guy

1:20:27

so now we've got to do the whole

1:20:30

thing over again And at least like they

1:20:32

were saying Arthur blank hates head coach searches

1:20:34

We just didn't want to do another one then

1:20:36

two years time. I do still think

1:20:38

I Do it a

1:20:41

team will get desperate enough to give Belichick another

1:20:43

shot I mean they were connecting him with Dallas

1:20:45

in a year's time, you know, Jerry

1:20:47

Jones has let Mike McCarthy essentially

1:20:50

Do the last year of his deal? Now

1:20:53

next year the conversation is not do I fire

1:20:55

him an audience do I renew his deal or

1:20:57

not which are different dynamic So maybe

1:20:59

it's Jerry Maybe another

1:21:01

team just goes. This is so much of

1:21:04

a mess, you know and reboots again It's

1:21:06

like how do we stop this cycle Belichick?

1:21:08

I think he'll get another shot. It makes sense from

1:21:10

the talented teams I think the most common rumors are

1:21:13

the Cowboys and the Eagles Yeah teams that you know,

1:21:15

we're gonna have talent like if the Eagles collapsed again

1:21:17

the way they did this year You

1:21:20

know because it was like on

1:21:22

the one hand Siri Annie took them to a Super Bowl

1:21:24

like a year ago on the other hand this collapse was

1:21:26

so insane It has to fall at the

1:21:28

door of the head coach Like if

1:21:30

that happened again this year Number

1:21:33

one Siri Annie would be gone and number two like

1:21:35

he has Belichick has connections with wrote

1:21:37

with how he roseman. I could definitely see

1:21:40

Billie check saying I trust how he roseman

1:21:42

I trust him building the team right again

1:21:44

There's some major differences in how

1:21:46

they build their team and stylistically and

1:21:49

even though in my mind I

1:21:51

tend to pigeonhole Belichick into like he has his own

1:21:53

scheme in his way. He's also been very Capable

1:21:57

of adjusting through the years right man versus

1:21:59

zone The thing he generally likes is

1:22:01

a certain, you know, size and physicality

1:22:03

to his players, more or less so than like

1:22:05

the undersized get up the field type of defensive

1:22:07

players. But I'm sure he

1:22:09

can adjust if how we make him make him a

1:22:11

call. Yeah, from a personnel point of view, I actually

1:22:14

think it would be the best thing for him to

1:22:16

see control of somebody that knows what they're doing and

1:22:18

just say, here are the ingredients we bought you make

1:22:20

the most of it. Because that's his that's been his

1:22:22

strength as a coach throughout the years is taking players

1:22:25

that can only do a specific

1:22:27

thing and not make them do other things.

1:22:29

Right? Like he would have specific

1:22:31

courses for specific courses, guys that play man

1:22:33

coverage, well, on the back end guys that

1:22:36

play zone coverage, well, on the back end.

1:22:38

And Belichick is the guy that's

1:22:40

willing to change the starting lineup week to week,

1:22:42

because this week we want more zone coverage. So

1:22:44

you're going to be the starter. This

1:22:46

week we want more man coverage. So we're flipping it like

1:22:49

he's actually perfect for that. It's

1:22:52

more the what does he want to do from a from

1:22:56

a sort of cultural, you know,

1:22:58

team construction standpoint, and how much of a pain is

1:23:00

that going to be? There's also the idea that he's

1:23:04

been a old school

1:23:06

disciplinarian, you know, shouty type

1:23:09

of coach. And that

1:23:11

doesn't seem to be a thing anymore.

1:23:13

Really? Those guys. I mean, where

1:23:15

are they? I want to play the QB alpha

1:23:18

game a little bit more 2014. Ready? People

1:23:20

will love that. Blake Bortles.

1:23:22

Yeah. Johnny football. Ooh. Teddy

1:23:25

Bridgewater. Okay. Derek Carr.

1:23:28

Jimmy G. It's

1:23:31

Teddy and Johnny football. Yeah. But

1:23:34

Derek Carr and Jimmy G are the two best quarterbacks from that

1:23:36

class. The most productive

1:23:38

quarterback. And the other part because Teddy's knee fell apart.

1:23:41

Yeah. And the other part being. So here's

1:23:43

the thing, right? Johnny football, it's the test

1:23:45

didn't fail you. Because

1:23:47

Johnny football could have been good. He was just

1:23:49

a lunatic. He just didn't study his playbook. Exactly.

1:23:51

Ever. So he was actually only

1:23:53

good at the alpha game. Yeah. That's the only thing

1:23:55

he was good at. Right. And was like a drug

1:23:58

addict. You know, Johnny football went off the right. not

1:24:00

because he was a good who wasn't a good

1:24:02

football player the fact that Johnny football made it

1:24:04

to the NFL with his Problems shows

1:24:07

you how talented a player he was in

1:24:09

fact the alpha it that's a success story

1:24:11

for the alpha test The

1:24:14

fact that he won a Heisman trophy is madness 2012

1:24:17

Andrew Luck RG 3 Ryan

1:24:20

Tannehill. Yeah, Brandon Whedon and

1:24:23

Then if you want to extend it to

1:24:25

Prokoff's Weiler Russell Wilson Nick

1:24:27

Foles Kirk Cousins what

1:24:30

a class. It's just luck luck wins Luck

1:24:33

wins everyone gravitates the luck everyone loved

1:24:36

that because they only Gravitated to him

1:24:38

because he was anointed as the no

1:24:40

people love lost people always love that

1:24:42

guy He had our doing three your

1:24:44

RG 3 would have won that no

1:24:46

luck would have won hundred percent large

1:24:48

beat I don't know people loved Andrew

1:24:50

Luck to an irrational degree at every

1:24:52

snap of his life That Was

1:24:56

because of his no it's not so he

1:24:59

had this is a thing the difference between

1:25:01

Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence is that People

1:25:03

loved Andrew Luck with that the

1:25:05

the crown with the crown that had been placed on

1:25:08

his head from like the age of 12 People

1:25:10

still loved him people didn't love Trevor Lawrence with

1:25:12

that. Let me just say two things here Russell

1:25:16

Wilson comes across as corny these days. Yes,

1:25:18

but he had I think

1:25:21

people really liked him He might have had a good

1:25:23

a good crew then Kirk in

1:25:25

at Michigan State. I remember a big 10

1:25:27

media days There were people who

1:25:29

were like that dude is so well-spoken. Yeah, he

1:25:31

is unbelievable like he is going to be president

1:25:34

someday like that type of Very

1:25:37

good at commanding a room and everything like that's

1:25:39

very different to teammates I understand

1:25:41

but he had that and maybe it maybe it

1:25:43

would have worked with teammates teammates love them in

1:25:45

Minnesota now So maybe Kirk maybe there would have

1:25:47

been some signal there if Kirk was invited to

1:25:49

top golf in 2012 I'm

1:25:52

telling you RG 3 was seen

1:25:54

as that guy. He was not a charismatic and

1:25:58

People loved him. I think I mean,

1:26:00

I think he whatever he says some stuff these

1:26:03

days where he's kind of all over the place But

1:26:05

I think at the time RG 3 maybe

1:26:08

wins the Alpha not a chance He would have

1:26:10

had a group but the winner of that would

1:26:12

absolutely have been Andrew luck Andrew luck would have

1:26:14

had the largest body of humans with him and

1:26:17

then there would have been small splinter factions with

1:26:19

RG 3 Kirk and

1:26:21

Russ I think before people figured out the Kirk

1:26:23

and Russ are really corny Like I would

1:26:25

have taken a while, but I think the teammates in

1:26:28

the Alpha test I don't want to stop play the

1:26:30

game with them. We're going listen. I'm going back to

1:26:32

0 for me The chat is gonna lose their mind.

1:26:34

You guys can leave 2008

1:26:39

Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Brian

1:26:41

Braum and Chad Henny and Kevin

1:26:44

O'Connell are all invited. They're the top five quarterbacks

1:26:46

off the board Ryan wins Matt

1:26:49

Ryan. Yeah, Matt Ryan Ryan's

1:26:51

not winning an alpha game Do you even

1:26:53

remember what Matt Ryan was coming out of

1:26:56

Boston College that people love that that he

1:26:58

would want easily easily You're

1:27:01

just making stuff up. No, no Ryan. This is

1:27:03

where it gets fun The mighty ice nickname came

1:27:05

from college not from the NFL that dude was

1:27:07

seen as like the guy Oh seven.

1:27:09

Yeah Jamarcus Russell. Oh,

1:27:11

no Brady Quinn Kevin

1:27:14

Cobb Oh God and John Beck Is

1:27:20

it crazy to say Kevin Cobb would have won that

1:27:22

nobody wins nobody wins you're right that would have been

1:27:24

just equal For collections it would

1:27:27

have been completely no pattern would have emerged.

1:27:29

Everybody passes. No pattern would have emerged Here's

1:27:31

you spin people. Here's where it fails. Here's

1:27:34

where it fails Vince

1:27:37

Young. No, I already know who wins

1:27:39

Matt liner. Yeah, Jay Cutler Those

1:27:42

are the three of three big ones. Yeah,

1:27:44

Vince Young wins. That's fine. Matt

1:27:46

Leonard would win that what Matt Leonard

1:27:48

would absolutely He was you out of

1:27:50

your mind was that Southern Cal Celebrity

1:27:53

that people wanted why he doesn't win.

1:27:55

That's why everybody wanted to hang on

1:27:57

Vince young coming off that national champion

1:28:00

Championship game Texas the road that liner wins

1:28:02

that in a land So I would want

1:28:04

that you are out of your freaking mind

1:28:06

Matt Ryan or Matt and liner people would

1:28:08

have looked at him and gone I'm

1:28:10

not siding with that like that southern

1:28:13

Cal Media darling with the

1:28:15

nice hair Vince young is my guy.

1:28:17

I am hanging out with

1:28:19

him You are crazy if you think

1:28:21

Matt liner wins that year also in

1:28:24

that draft class Kellen Clemens Tavares Jackson

1:28:26

Charlie Whitehurst Bruce

1:28:28

Brad koski Bruce would have

1:28:30

had a little group with him Bruce. Yeah now

1:28:32

that he's a motivational speaker No, he's just a fun

1:28:34

guy. He would have people would have gone to Bruce

1:28:36

Bruce is funny Yeah, Bruce would have had Bruce would

1:28:38

have had one of those Russ Wilson little cliques You

1:28:40

know it would have been Vince young with everybody with

1:28:42

him You're out of your mind and

1:28:45

then Bruce would have a little group. All

1:28:47

right. I got it I just wanted to get back to 04 so give

1:28:49

me oh five Alex

1:28:51

Smith Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, Jason

1:28:53

Campbell Huh

1:28:57

That one's tough Jason Campbell might have won that

1:28:59

year Aaron Rodgers was a big dork back

1:29:01

then Yeah, so Alex Smith kind of

1:29:03

nerdy as well. I don't think he'd I think it might

1:29:05

have been Jason Campbell I'm gonna get sued by Rodgers now

1:29:07

to Roger's got bigger problems He's

1:29:10

trying to figure out HIV and stuff. Don't

1:29:12

worry about it Rodgers I

1:29:15

think Jason Campbell might have won that year that

1:29:17

that's a problematic data point for the alpha Oh

1:29:19

five's not good for it now. Oh four We

1:29:21

know three really good quarterbacks get four really actually

1:29:23

came out of it Eli Manning. Yeah,

1:29:26

Phillip Rivers. Yeah, Ben Roth asperger

1:29:28

Yeah JP lost man, and

1:29:30

then Matt Schaub was the next QB off the board in round three

1:29:35

I think Josh Harris was also in that draft out of

1:29:37

Bowling Green Not the owner not the owner

1:29:39

right because that would have been a hell of an

1:29:41

arc They also had Jeff smoker John Navar and Cody picket

1:29:43

as late round picks. So I think I think

1:29:46

rivers and Roth asperger win that He

1:29:50

lies to Eli no Eli only

1:29:52

became Eli after the rings Yeah,

1:29:56

the Eli's not winning JP lost one

1:29:58

certainly not winning as I was watching

1:30:00

the 0-4 draft, Eli

1:30:02

did come up and he's like, I don't

1:30:04

want to sign with the Chargers. And this is my

1:30:06

decision. I swear, it's my decision. He

1:30:09

was assuring people that this was not Archie telling him

1:30:11

to do this. And not a single human being believed

1:30:13

in this. Nobody believed him. I

1:30:15

think it probably would have been Rivers with

1:30:17

the biggest, and then Rothasberger second, and then

1:30:19

everyone else at distance. So depending on perspective,

1:30:23

Rivers and Rothasberger were clearly better quarterbacks than Eli

1:30:25

Manning, but Eli had the two Super Bowl runs.

1:30:28

That seemed very difficult to predict. What?

1:30:32

I'm just going to let that be your definition

1:30:35

of the outcome of that draft and

1:30:37

say nothing. Rivers and

1:30:39

Rothasberger were better quarterbacks than Eli Manning.

1:30:42

Right? I am saying nothing.

1:30:45

No one disagrees with that. I

1:30:47

think you'll find that's very not true. All

1:30:51

right, 0-2. 0-2, god. And

1:30:54

then we're going to 0-1, and that's it. Come on.

1:30:56

David Carr in 0-2. David Carr. Joey

1:30:58

Harrington. Nobody even remembers these quarterbacks. Joey

1:31:02

Harrington. Do you have any idea how far ago 2002 was?

1:31:06

I just rewatched it. There were a bunch of our listeners

1:31:08

who weren't alive when this draft happened. Fresh in my

1:31:11

mind. David Carr. I loved him. Joey

1:31:14

Harrington. Patrick Ramsey. Josh

1:31:16

McCown. In

1:31:19

round four. And then David Garard in round four.

1:31:22

McCown was round three. This is potentially another

1:31:24

problematic day. It's problematic. And

1:31:26

then 0-1 was Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Quincy

1:31:28

Carter. Vick wins. And

1:31:30

that would have been wrong, because Drew Brees

1:31:32

was in that mix. Wouldn't have been wrong.

1:31:34

Just give me the 0-2 again. David

1:31:38

Carr. Yeah. Joey Harrington. Patrick

1:31:41

Ramsey. I

1:31:43

think that would have been Carr and Ramsey equally.

1:31:47

So again, hindsight's really

1:31:50

clear. Joey Harrington. Because

1:31:52

I just rewatched it again. Definitely not Joey.

1:31:54

Joey Harrington's interview

1:31:56

after getting drafted by the Lions at three overall

1:31:58

was something to the effect of. I didn't know

1:32:00

I was gonna go this high, but I'm excited. Basically

1:32:02

like, I didn't think I was going in

1:32:05

the top twin. That's like red flag right

1:32:07

away. Daphne wouldn't have been Joey. In

1:32:10

2000 Would

1:32:14

we have predicted Tom Brady if he

1:32:16

was playing top golf with Chad Pennington?

1:32:18

Honestly, you might have. I know. Seriously.

1:32:20

Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris

1:32:23

Redman, T. Martin, Mark

1:32:25

Bulger, Spurgeon Wynn, and

1:32:28

Tom Brady. Brady,

1:32:31

yes, Brady would have had, he would have had

1:32:33

that. I think T. Martin, T. Martin's become a

1:32:35

very good wide receivers coach. T. Martin may have

1:32:38

been the guy. What? T.

1:32:40

Martin also, after Peyton

1:32:42

Manning. I'm more interested. Could not win the big

1:32:44

one. T. Martin comes in, goes undefeated, they win

1:32:46

the national title. After Peyton Manning. T. Martin would

1:32:48

have maybe won that one. No, I think, yeah,

1:32:51

so I think, I think Pennington would have had

1:32:53

a group. I think Brady absolutely would have had

1:32:55

a group. I'm more interested in that draft. Would

1:32:58

the alpha test have

1:33:00

identified who's,

1:33:03

I look at Mark Bulger. It

1:33:05

wouldn't, right? I don't think. No

1:33:07

way Bulger's getting a group. I don't think so.

1:33:09

The people doubting Brady in that sense, I think

1:33:11

you've got to go back to like early Brady

1:33:13

stories because he was like a party animal, but

1:33:16

always worked hard and he would

1:33:18

shotgun beers better than everybody. Like he makes love

1:33:20

Tom Brady right away. He makes love. He makes

1:33:22

love Tom Brady. Yeah, they really did. Right off

1:33:24

the bat. So there was

1:33:27

something there. Tim

1:33:30

Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Dante Culpepper,

1:33:32

Cade McDonough. Tim

1:33:35

Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Dante Culpepper,

1:33:37

Cade McDonough. I would, I'm gonna say

1:33:40

McNabb at Culpepper, but it's hindsight. Yeah.

1:33:43

Tim Couch could go either way because on the one hand he

1:33:45

was probably quite fun. On the other hand he appears to have

1:33:47

been, you know, not

1:33:50

the sharpest tool in the drawer. Yeah,

1:33:53

that's probably not helping. All

1:33:55

right. That's all we're doing. Yes. Thank you.

1:33:57

So your prediction... is

1:34:01

in this game, it's very clearly.

1:34:04

Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy. It's

1:34:07

very clear to you, Penix Jr. and I think JJ

1:34:09

McCarthy is the other winner. I definitely think Penix. Bo

1:34:13

Nix? No. I

1:34:15

think people like Bo. No, Bo Nix not winning this. I

1:34:18

think you're probably right. I

1:34:20

don't know enough about Drake May to

1:34:22

comment, positively or negatively

1:34:24

though. I feel like I sense

1:34:27

it more with Penix and JJ, but

1:34:29

isn't this just they had the teams that won? No.

1:34:33

How much is the day of the teams that won and went to

1:34:35

the national title? That doesn't matter. So of course their teams won them.

1:34:37

No. This is not

1:34:39

a waste of time because the show's supposed to be

1:34:41

over. I mean, and what else am

1:34:43

I getting? Consider this bonus material. This is bonus.

1:34:46

The show ended about 15 minutes ago. Yeah, the

1:34:48

show's been over for a while. And we're just

1:34:50

entertaining ourselves by talking about the alpha test. This

1:34:52

is absolutely bonus material. I will remind everybody. So

1:34:54

a couple things. I got a couple announcements here.

1:34:56

Your bets, I want your bets. Maybe bets aren't the

1:34:58

best way to parse this thing,

1:35:00

but it is your predictions for the

1:35:02

NFL Draft. We will collect them all.

1:35:05

And if they are bold enough. Yes, bold

1:35:07

predictions. Bold predictions that you feel real strongly

1:35:09

about. And if they come true, we'll give

1:35:12

you a year of PFF

1:35:14

Plus. So NFL podcast at pff.com.

1:35:16

You can tag us in a

1:35:18

tweet and everything too. Hashtag vault

1:35:21

me. It's still live. Hashtag

1:35:23

vault me. Yeah, you gotta just search it. People still

1:35:25

use it. Right. Using it

1:35:27

from like 19. Doesn't matter. People

1:35:29

still use it during draft season. I started it back in 2012.

1:35:32

And it's still going. So hashtag vault me. Here's

1:35:36

your question for you. Here's your question for you. If

1:35:39

the PFF office used

1:35:41

the alpha test, who would win? Who's

1:35:46

gravitated to, well, there's no one in the

1:35:48

office anymore. Okay, but assuming everyone was in

1:35:50

the office. Who would win? Trash.

1:35:52

Trash is not winning the alpha test. Likeable guy.

1:35:54

No, stop it right now. So let's say like

1:35:57

the heyday of, okay, the heyday. Bruce

1:35:59

is. still getting Bruce is still a leader in the clubhouse. He's

1:36:01

still getting a lot and he only showed up on Tuesday. So

1:36:04

I'm saying but he would buy us lunch. So that's a big

1:36:06

part of it. Yeah, Bruce would have a big group. Definitely.

1:36:09

I don't want to say the answer because he turned out to

1:36:11

be a very he was

1:36:14

magnetic and then he became

1:36:18

backstabbing turncoat. Wow.

1:36:20

So I think I won't say it. I think

1:36:22

I think the late Austin Gale would have a

1:36:25

shot. Austin Gale magnetic. Yeah, he's got I'm not

1:36:27

that's not the backstabbing turncoat. I'm talking about I

1:36:29

think the late Michael Renner would have a shot

1:36:32

just because he was handsome. He's a little bit. He would

1:36:34

have a smaller group. Austin would be so yeah.

1:36:36

Austin had Austin had that alpha Austin and

1:36:39

Bruce definitely not me. Nobody likes me. No.

1:36:41

Austin and Bruce would be my two suggestions.

1:36:43

I think yeah, that's fair. Austin and Bruce.

1:36:47

Is there anyone else in the

1:36:49

office at the time? Jeff

1:36:54

Beers marketing

1:36:57

only for the stories. People don't know who

1:36:59

he is. So it's not nobody knows but

1:37:01

I think Austin and Austin and Bruce are

1:37:03

my two suggestions. Bruce Krakowski and

1:37:05

the late Austin Gale currently at the ringer. Yeah.

1:37:08

Yeah. Those would be the two. See this is

1:37:10

we should have worked hard to keep Austin over

1:37:12

here. I'm telling you this the

1:37:14

alpha test works. I have

1:37:16

the alpha test of PFF predicted a guy

1:37:18

who's running like content for the ringer and

1:37:21

a dude who's offensive coordinator for the St.

1:37:23

Louis bottle Hawks in the UFL.

1:37:25

He's like buddies with the Hawks. I don't know

1:37:27

if you I don't know if you'd predict this

1:37:29

properly. I don't know if you'd predict

1:37:31

it. Yeah. That's

1:37:33

what the alpha test would have said. Nobody else

1:37:35

done better than that. The old alpha test used to be

1:37:37

is was he a team captain. They used to ask it

1:37:39

was your team captain. All right. This is just a more

1:37:42

sophisticated way of doing that. All

1:37:44

right. Is that it for the show? So the other

1:37:46

thing I want to do announce announce I'm

1:37:48

I'm teaching a class. What?

1:37:50

I'm teaching a class in what?

1:37:54

PFF. You're teaching a class

1:37:56

in PFF. Yes. Part of sports

1:37:58

management worldwide. You can learn. PFF

1:38:00

PFF ultimate might actually

1:38:02

get access to PFF ultimate for about eight weeks.

1:38:05

So I walk you through it Through

1:38:08

Sports Management Worldwide calm. So I'll

1:38:10

be tweeting it. I'll be tweeting out more information, but

1:38:12

I'm the professor class And

1:38:16

you can join and Learn

1:38:18

about PFF Like week one.

1:38:20

What is PFF and PFF ultimate? What are the grades

1:38:22

mean how to scout players game plan teach you how

1:38:24

to do that and ultimate and a lot of people

1:38:27

Sign up for these courses through

1:38:30