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Productivity, it's a word we tend to

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Is my team being productive enough? But

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0:49

This week's number, 26. That's

0:51

the percentage of the nation's wind energy

0:53

produced in Texas, number

0:55

one in the nation. True

0:58

story. I have a

1:00

site where I send out pictures of my

1:02

windmill. I call it OnlyFans. It's

1:05

actually surprisingly tame. I had

1:07

a really dirty one and

1:09

I told it backstage and

1:11

like, no, don't

1:14

do that. Don't do that.

1:20

Are you sure? Actually,

1:29

I don't know if you heard this, Ed, but you

1:31

know how a woman in Texas gets access to legal

1:33

abortion? How's that? Trust pass.

1:38

You asked for it. You

1:40

asked for it. Welcome

1:42

to the Austin office of Atlassian. By

1:54

the way, who came up with that name? Whoever came

1:56

up with that name either was a bully or was

1:58

bullied a lot. Atlassian?

2:02

That is serious. I mean, I'm

2:04

on testosterone. Atlassian? Anyways,

2:07

here we are at the Austin

2:09

office of Atlassian for South by

2:11

Southwest. Is that right? That was

2:13

amazing. That

2:16

was perfect. Yeah, I

2:18

can tell Atlassian is probably

2:20

already regretting this sponsorship, but

2:23

that's okay. We don't have

2:25

much time, so we're just going to get straight into it.

2:27

We're going to start with our weekly

2:29

review of Market Vitals. The

2:38

Austin P500 hit a new record. The

2:40

dollar fell. Bitcoin reached an

2:42

all-time high, and the yield

2:44

on 10-year treasuries dropped. Shifting

2:47

to the headlines. In his house

2:50

testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central

2:52

bank is still on track to cut interest

2:54

rates this year. However, he

2:56

remains cautious around the timing of those cuts.

2:58

Wall Street now expects that the first rate

3:00

reduction won't come until June. China

3:03

set its GDP growth target for 2024 at

3:05

5%. That's the same target

3:07

rate it set last year when

3:09

growth came in at 5.2%. However,

3:12

Beijing did not offer specific details on

3:14

how it plans to achieve that goal.

3:17

The EU fined Apple $2 billion

3:19

for anti-competitive conducts. Regulators

3:22

said Apple has been using its app

3:24

store to obstruct competition with its music

3:26

streaming rivals, mainly Spotify, for

3:29

a decade. And finally, Elon

3:31

Musk sued OpenAI for abandoning its

3:33

founding goal of benefits and humanity,

3:36

and instead prioritizing

3:38

profits. In

3:40

response, OpenAI published past emails from

3:42

Musk which encouraged the company to

3:44

raise $1 billion in funding and

3:46

become quote, less open. I

4:00

saw Trevor Noah. He's so handsome. I

4:03

could have stopped staring at the guy. And

4:06

then there was Elon Musk. Anyway, so

4:08

look, if you look at the emails, he's

4:12

basically suggested that he made a play for

4:14

the company. He wanted to take it over

4:17

and said that he actually suggested that it turn into

4:19

a for-profit. And they said, that's a great idea, but

4:21

we don't want you involved. He made a play to

4:23

be the CEO and the largest shareholder. And

4:26

they said no. And I joke

4:28

that I sold Netflix

4:31

at $10 a share. It's now at $520. So

4:34

I'm angry. I've lost power. I've lost wealth. So I'm

4:36

going to sue Netflix. There

4:38

is no written agreement between the two,

4:40

between Elon Musk and the company, that

4:43

they would pursue any specific

4:45

vision. So this is nothing but a nuisance

4:47

lawsuit. And this is

4:49

bad for the economy. Because if you start

4:51

a small firm, and your old firm or

4:53

other firm start illegally harassing you, it's very

4:55

difficult to raise money. It's very difficult to

4:57

attract employees under the auspice of a lawsuit.

4:59

So I just think this is all around

5:01

bad. Hopefully, a judge will recognize it for

5:03

what it is and

5:06

dismiss it right out of

5:08

hand. Now, what are real binding contracts?

5:10

When you tell someone that you're going to

5:12

buy their company for $44 billion and you sign

5:15

up and down that you're buying it, and then you

5:17

decide that in a fit of mania, you may

5:19

have overpaid for something worth $10 billion, and you try

5:21

and get out, that's an enforceable contract. When

5:24

you agree to pay people severance, if you fire

5:26

them, and then you

5:28

say, no, I'm not paying you, that's an

5:30

enforceable contract. What

5:32

he's claiming is not enforced. There is no

5:34

contract. So I just think it's a nuisance

5:36

lawsuit. And kind of the love

5:39

language of Elon Musk and Donald Trump appear to

5:41

be lawsuits. So anyways, I

5:43

think that goes nowhere. Exactly. And the

5:45

point is that the suit is

5:48

for a breach of contracts. But as you mentioned,

5:50

you look through the lawsuit, and you get to

5:52

around page 41, you start to realize that actually

5:54

there was no contract at all. All

5:56

they have is an email chain where

5:59

Sam says. Oh, it's going

6:01

to be open source. It's going to be nonprofit. This

6:03

is going to be good for humanity, etc And

6:05

then the quote unquote agreement that

6:08

they talk about is an email

6:10

from Elon Musk saying I Agree

6:13

and that's it. And so every legal analyst

6:15

will tell you that is no sufficient grounds

6:17

for a breach of contract lawsuit So

6:20

we move on to the Fed chair

6:22

and his statements in house. So

6:25

Chairman Powell I think I

6:27

thought it was wonderful that Taylor Swift was times person

6:29

the year I can't I cannot stand

6:31

her music, but I'm a total

6:33

Swiftie. I think she's an inspiration I can't imagine

6:36

a better role model for young woman than Taylor

6:38

Swift, you know, she's nice

6:42

Hays her people. Well You

6:44

know doesn't have profanity in her songs doesn't appear

6:47

to have had a shit ton of surgery seems

6:49

to be in a healthy romantic Relationship is

6:52

a baller billionaire I mean, how

6:54

could you carve a better role

6:56

model out of a factory of

6:59

lesser role models for young women? So I'm a huge

7:01

Taylor Swift and she won person of the year in

7:04

terms of who's had the most impact Last

7:07

year I would I would argue was actually chairman Powell

7:10

because inflation is how revolutions start

7:13

They don't start because of an invading army or people

7:15

are upset about laws being passed They

7:17

start because every day someone shows up and

7:19

they say I can no longer afford beef.

7:22

I need chicken I can no longer afford

7:24

chicken. I need rice their purchasing power goes

7:26

down. That's literally how societies digress into chaos

7:28

or most often is this boring thing called

7:30

inflation and Chairman Powell

7:32

raised interest rates 500 basis

7:34

points in 15 months. That is historic No

7:37

one's ever done that before in a Western

7:39

economy And he got all sorts

7:41

of shitposting from senators on the left Saying

7:44

that well people can't afford their mortgages and

7:46

their credit card payments and inflation has dropped

7:48

down below 3% And here's

7:50

where we are with our economy right now We

7:52

have the highest GDP growth of any large economy

7:54

in the world with the exception of the Kingdom

7:57

of Saudi Arabia while having

7:59

the lowest. Inflation. That's.

8:02

Almost impossible to pull off.

8:05

We. Have the most dramatic job growth

8:07

in history in the last year.

8:10

I. Mean it's literally if you showed

8:12

these numbers to an economist they would

8:14

say that's impossible you can to at

8:16

the markets touching new highs. Now the

8:18

problem is similar to technology. Or what

8:21

William Gibson said about technology is prosperity

8:23

is here. It is not evenly distributed.

8:26

And. So a lot of people are upset and they. Did

8:28

you. Know they have every right to be upset,

8:30

but that's a function of policy choices. As.

8:32

A function of income inequality because of

8:34

tax structure the transfers money from lower

8:36

middle income households to rich households. But

8:38

if you were to try an architect

8:40

and economy. I mean

8:43

literally, this is it. And just speaking

8:45

in terms of America right now. Where.

8:48

Food Independent Renzi Independent harmless

8:50

from Canada to the. North.

8:53

A harmless Mexico to the South

8:55

Oceans protecting us. No one is lining

8:57

up for Chinese or Russian vaccines. The

9:00

greatest technological innovation of the last twenty

9:02

years. Is. Within a seven mile

9:04

radius of San Francisco International Airport, suffer

9:07

all the ship awesome In California they

9:09

basically recreated entire global auto industry in

9:11

terms of market capitalization and last six

9:13

weeks. So something is working here and

9:15

we're also on striking distance. As much

9:17

controversy is there is rounds and the

9:20

things my on campuses weren't striking distance

9:22

of becoming the first multicultural democracy and

9:24

history the world. Fifty one percent of

9:26

Harvard's incoming freshman class As non whites

9:28

me we are. Everyone.

9:31

Every nation, In the world would

9:33

kill for our problems. Never outside was

9:35

fuzzy gonna kick our ass and was

9:37

going to surpass autonomy. And the last

9:39

three years, the Chinese stock market has

9:41

shed. Six. Trillion dollars in

9:43

value Their seven companies in America That about

9:45

a three trillion in the last twelve weeks.

9:48

So. you may not like america and

9:50

i i i worry that we're raising a

9:52

generation of people because media likes to catastrophes

9:55

raising a generation people that don't like america

9:57

and that's fine but we're least bad and

9:59

anywhere world right now. I think

10:01

a lot about reverse engineers to

10:04

very bold actions taken by the Fed

10:06

share. As much as we were

10:08

hoping the punch bowl was going to be put back in

10:10

front of us, such as we could have really low interest

10:12

rates to drive growth, which is great,

10:14

which is fun, especially for wealthy people who can

10:16

borrow against their stocks and make more investments,

10:20

this guy, I defer to him. He

10:23

has pulled off a masterclass in

10:26

how to essentially create a Goldilocks

10:28

economy. Really awesome. You've got to

10:30

give the president some credit here. The economy

10:32

here and the level of prosperity

10:34

is staggering. Unfortunately, because of tax

10:37

policy or idolatry of innovators and

10:39

a lottery optimistic economy where we

10:41

all believe we're going to be

10:43

in that 1%, and

10:46

I can prove to all of us mathematically that 99% of

10:48

our children will not be in the top 1%, we

10:52

have a massive amount of prosperity, but

10:54

it hasn't translated to progress. That

10:58

is, lower and middle income households are

11:00

actually doing better, but not nearly as

11:02

better as the amount of prosperity recognized

11:04

by other people. We're reminded of

11:06

that benchmark and that we're not doing well

11:08

every day by algorithms. Long winded

11:11

answer. I think he's doing a great job.

11:13

We should move on to the

11:15

EU finding $2 billion for anti-steering

11:17

violations. One of my heroes is

11:20

the EU competitive commissioner, Margaret Vestier.

11:23

She's just not impressed or scared of these guys. If

11:26

you think about the US, you would

11:28

not want to give up big tech for all of their

11:32

downsides, weaponization of our elections,

11:35

income inequality, teen

11:37

depression. There's a lot making our

11:39

discourse more coarse. There's a lot of negatives. On

11:43

a net level, they're positive. They

11:45

add tremendous prosperity, create a ton of good

11:47

jobs, a lot of utility. The

11:50

problem is with the word net. We

11:52

tend to make binary decisions because that's the easiest way

11:54

to process information when we say, well, if they're

11:57

a net good, then leave them alone. Well,

11:59

pesticides. are a net good. Fossil fuels are a net good,

12:01

but we still have an EPA and an FDA. So we should

12:04

absolutely hold them accountable. Go to

12:06

Europe, they don't have nearly the

12:09

upside. They get all of the downside. They

12:11

get all of the teen depression and

12:13

weaponization of their elections and the course

12:15

discourse. They get a fraction of the

12:17

upside. There are very few hospitals or universities

12:19

with names on the sides from Facebook

12:21

or Google billionaires in Cologne or Glasgow.

12:24

So we get all this shit. We're

12:26

the sewer system, but we're

12:28

not getting clean water. So

12:31

that is stiff in the backbone

12:33

of EU regulators. Their innovation, quite

12:35

frankly, is regulation. What was interesting

12:37

about this fine is that

12:39

estimates were going to be that it was $500 million.

12:42

It was $2 billion. Now let's talk about

12:44

why they were fine. They were fine

12:47

because Spotify has said, we can't compete.

12:49

This is anti-competitive behavior. It goes something

12:51

like this. If

12:53

Visa, think about the App Store at Apple,

12:56

I think of the best analogy is

12:58

a credit card company that provides security, easy

13:00

transfer of information. The user or

13:02

the merchant gets paid,

13:04

the consumer knows or has incredible utility,

13:06

I give a credit card. So there's

13:09

a lot of technology, trust, safety, security.

13:11

In exchange, Visa or Amix gets somewhere

13:13

between 1.5% and 3% of

13:16

the transaction. That is effectively the

13:18

role the App Store plays. Surety

13:21

of the transaction, security, safety

13:23

checks, quality control, and

13:25

they take between 15% and 30%. Now

13:29

what if Visa charged 30% credit card fees?

13:31

30% to every retailer. And then they decided,

13:36

you know what, we see opportunity. We're

13:39

going to go vertical into retail, and we're going to

13:41

buy Lululemon. And if you shop

13:43

at Lululemon, we Visa slash

13:46

Lululemon don't have to pay the 30%. So

13:49

Lululemon can price their products

13:51

30% below Aloe or Nike.

13:54

No retailer could compete with

13:57

Visa slash Lululemon. That

13:59

is... exactly what happens when Apple goes

14:02

into the music business and Spotify

14:04

has to pay that 15 or

14:06

30 percent tax, but Apple music

14:08

doesn't So when

14:10

a company that owns the rails

14:13

starts competing directly and going vertical

14:15

That is the definition of anti-competitive

14:17

behavior and Margaret Destier saw this

14:19

and it's fine them two billion dollars And

14:22

these fines are perfect except they

14:24

have one flaw they need

14:26

another zero And

14:29

that is two billion dollars sounds like a lot of

14:31

money. It's not it's basically their free cash flow for

14:33

I think about nine days If

14:35

you had that's not an exaggeration at

14:37

Apple If you had a

14:39

parking meter in front of your house They

14:41

cost $100 an hour, but the

14:44

parking ticket was 25 cents You

14:46

would break the law and that's a

14:48

series of incentives we have in the United States We

14:51

spend years going after these companies. We find

14:54

them nine days nine weeks of their cash

14:56

flow In exchange they continue

14:58

to engage in this behavior where they make

15:01

Hundreds of billions of dollars in shareholder value.

15:04

So the fines are fine. They just all lack is

15:06

zero This was the biggest in a while. I think

15:08

it's I think it's a great thing We'll

15:11

be right back You Support

15:22

for the show comes from Atlassian

15:24

in an age of distributed work where teams

15:26

might be spread across time zones It's time

15:28

to stop measuring productivity with standards from the

15:30

industrial era Productivity to leave

15:33

some more outputs doesn't necessarily mean better

15:35

results Instead companies should focus on the

15:37

outcomes that teams deliver Whether

15:39

you're a team of two 200 or two

15:41

million or whether your team is around the corner

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or on another continent altogether Atlassian

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share knowledge Atlassian Jira helps cross-functional teams

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plan track and release new work And

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Learn how to unleash

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16:21

team at atlassian.com. That's

16:24

a-t-l-a-s-s-i-a-n.com. Atlassian. We're

16:37

back with Prodigy Markets. As

16:40

we've discussed previously, Disney has

16:42

been battling a proxy fight with activist investor

16:44

Nelson Peltz. He wants to replace

16:47

two board members and issue a new plan for

16:49

the company. Well, last week his

16:51

firm, Triand Partners, released a white paper that

16:53

laid out that plan. The

16:56

document recommended, among several things, merging

16:59

Hulu with Disney+, reducing

17:01

Disney's production of sequels, establishing

17:04

a CEO succession plan, and,

17:07

quote, taking more shots on goal. Disney

17:10

shareholders will vote in three weeks whether to

17:12

appoint Nelson and his partner Jay Rosulo to

17:15

the board. Now, Scott,

17:17

I'm going to turn this to you. Back in

17:19

October, you predicted that Nelson Peltz would successfully secure

17:21

a board seat on Disney.

17:24

We'll find out in three weeks. But for now,

17:27

I'm just wondering, has your position at all

17:29

changed? So I don't know if he's going to get the seat.

17:31

What I would say is the following, that the

17:34

analysis should be done through the lens of

17:36

governance, not who's more popular or who's more

17:38

like—Bob Biker's really likeable. He's got

17:41

these great cashmere sweaters, super handsome. You

17:44

know, he's very good at media. If you

17:46

want to come to the premiere of Frozen—I

17:48

mean, he's really good. He's got these guys.

17:50

Disney, every CEO you meet was the fraternity

17:52

rush chairman. They're really likeable. Nelson

17:55

Peltz is not as likeable, not nearly

17:57

as likeable. Bob Biker

17:59

should absolutely— give Nelson Pelt the seat on the

18:01

board. Fiduciary is

18:03

a wonderful word. As a board member,

18:05

you're supposed to be a fiduciary for

18:08

all stakeholders, the community shareholders' employees. You

18:10

get your options, you get your pay, and then you're

18:12

supposed to think about other people. A

18:15

great way to create a sense of being a fiduciary

18:17

on a board is if someone

18:19

buys a lot of stock. That

18:21

puts them in the shoes of other shareholders.

18:23

The total amount of shares owned by all

18:25

of the board members on Disney, many of

18:28

whom are very wealthy, is $15 million. Pelt's

18:32

is about $800 million. I think

18:34

right there, he gets a

18:36

seat on the board. Now let's look at the

18:38

numbers. The S&P is up, I think, 80% in

18:40

the last five years. Netflix is up 70%. Disney's

18:43

down 1%. And yet they've

18:46

managed to pay themselves a lot of money. So

18:48

if someone shows up and buys $800 million with

18:51

a stock, they deserve to be on

18:53

the board. And as someone who has served on a

18:55

lot of public company boards, the easiest way to get

18:57

someone to shut up is to

18:59

put them on the board. Because

19:01

then they have access to public, non-public material

19:03

information, and they have to stop shit posting

19:05

the company. The other thing you find, I'll

19:09

use an example. This will be the weakest flex in the world.

19:12

I bought, here we go. I bought

19:14

17% of Gateway Computer, remember them? When

19:19

I say I, I raised like 80 million bucks. And I'm

19:21

like, Cal spots, I'm a brand guy, I

19:23

get it. They have shelf space at Best Buy. We're

19:26

gonna buy this thing. Was trading at a buck 50

19:28

a share. For 78 million bucks,

19:30

we bought 70% of the company. And I showed up and I

19:32

said, I demand two seats on the board and I ran a

19:34

proxy fight. I got my two seats on the board and I

19:36

showed up. And I first board meeting went

19:39

through this long presentation. We have a

19:41

nice brand, we should sell at the Acer. I

19:43

already know the people there. We can sell at three bucks

19:45

a share. Everybody makes enough money, we're

19:47

off or gone. And they listened

19:49

very quietly, very politely. And then they said, Scott,

19:51

we engaged Goldman Sachs two years ago to sell

19:54

the company. And we've been trying for

19:56

the last 24 months to sell it. And

19:58

the lesson I learned. I'm

20:01

still learning is that when you come

20:03

into a situation from the outside What

20:05

you generally find is that

20:08

you're not as smart as you thought and

20:10

they're not as dumb as you'd hoped So

20:13

what I would suggest Bob Iger is

20:15

he says to Nelson come on in

20:17

the waters fine And

20:19

his ideas are all sort of they're out there. They're

20:21

not it's nothing that unique Right,

20:24

but instead like almost every

20:26

I would say 50 to 70 percent

20:29

of really brain-dead Corporate decisions that

20:31

make no sense and involves

20:33

a man in a midlife crisis Because

20:36

ego gets in the way. This is

20:39

easy Negotiate fly down

20:41

there telling me it's great play golf with

20:43

them Interesting idea what you think

20:45

we should merge Hulu and we've been thinking about

20:47

that, but I'd love to hear your ideas Would

20:49

you like a seat on the board? I can't

20:51

give you two would you like one? I'm sure

20:53

we could figure this out together put them on

20:55

your board and then stop this nonsense Distracting

20:58

everyone in the company. It's gonna cost tens

21:00

of not hundreds of millions of dollars It's

21:03

gonna take every senior manager tens of

21:05

hours each week to deal with this

21:07

shit and move on But now it's

21:09

become about ego. I almost

21:12

I ruined a company doing this

21:15

I started coming to go red envelope and basically

21:20

The guy who took my job as

21:22

chairman was a guy is a guy named Mike Moore

21:24

It's arguably the most successful venture capitalists in history And

21:27

my partner wrote a memo saying the mic

21:29

was using red envelope as a dumping ground

21:31

for the failed products of Sequoia Sequoia portfolio

21:33

companies and I got all angry and

21:35

said Mike you are not serving up to your

21:37

fiduciary duty two days later I was kicked off

21:39

the board So I was kicked out of the

21:41

band that I started and I was

21:43

very bored at the time I was living

21:46

with my mother longer story and

21:48

a lonely Lonely guy

21:50

lonely board guy with a little bit of

21:52

money is a dangerous person So I thought

21:54

I'll start a full-scale proxy fight to replace

21:57

the entire board because I'm pissed off

22:00

When we put and Mike, who was a master

22:02

of the universe, decided, oh no, our CEO

22:04

is incompetent, but he decided because I wanted her

22:06

out, she was amazing, the two

22:08

of us literally ruined the company. Literally

22:11

ruined it because I

22:14

was so insecure and

22:17

angry and he was so insular and master

22:19

of the universe that neither of us would

22:21

just go, well, okay, what

22:23

would be best for the company right now? Why

22:25

can't we come to some sort of solution and

22:27

get back to building shareholder value? It was a

22:30

really good company and we just fucked it because

22:32

of our egos. These

22:34

guys are doing the same thing. Disney is

22:36

much stronger and has much more immunity than

22:38

a red envelope, but they are wasting time,

22:40

they are wasting shareholder value. Put on your

22:42

big boy pants, put them on the board,

22:44

move on. You know, I had a lot

22:46

of follow-up questions, but that was about 10

22:48

minutes, so we're going to move on. Okay,

22:51

sorry. Sorry. The

23:02

House of Representatives Committee unanimously advanced

23:05

a bipartisan bill last week

23:07

that would force ByteDance to

23:09

divest TikTok and

23:11

if it doesn't, the app will be banned.

23:15

Ahead of that committee vote, TikTok pushed a

23:17

pop-up screen on the app encouraging users to

23:19

call their representatives and tell them to vote

23:21

against the bill. It said,

23:23

quote, don't let the

23:25

government strip 170 million Americans of

23:28

their constitutional right to free expression

23:30

and then use this flooded Congress with

23:33

calls. So we'll see if

23:35

that sways anyone when the bill heads to

23:37

the floor vote this week. Scott,

23:40

in July of last year, you called for

23:42

a ban on TikTok. You

23:44

said, quote, do I have your attention? You do.

23:47

I'm going to pull up a text that's related to

23:49

it. Go ahead. Sorry. He's

23:52

got a hat out. Is

23:55

the bar open? I

23:58

got it. I got it. Hold on, hold on,

24:00

hold on. Let me read your quote, which is, the

24:03

platform's potential for espionage is a concern, but

24:05

its use for propaganda is a clear and

24:07

present danger, and real action is needed. So

24:09

is this the kind of action you're looking

24:11

for? So just big picture. The

24:15

best thing in terms of playing offense

24:18

that could happen in the world economically,

24:20

and maybe from a defense perspective, would be if

24:23

the two largest economies kissed and made up. The

24:26

fact that China and

24:28

the US are withdrawing from each other

24:31

is dangerous, and also, literally

24:33

the largest tax cut in the history of the

24:35

modern world would be if we re-embrace and this

24:38

Cold War was thawed. Because

24:40

about 30% of everything in this room either

24:42

came from or came through China. And

24:45

if we can figure out a way

24:47

to take our innovation, our consumerism, our

24:49

capital, and their unbelievable supply chain and

24:51

labor force, that's just

24:53

a champagne and cocaine combination that makes

24:55

everything cheaper in the world. And it

24:57

also makes us less likely to start

25:00

firing missiles at each other over the

25:02

straits of Taiwan. So I

25:04

see a strategic imperative and real

25:06

benefit to China and the US,

25:09

a thaw in the relations. We should just

25:11

get along. They have an unemployment problem. We

25:13

have an inflation problem. They have a growth

25:16

problem. I mean, we can solve each other's

25:18

problems. The

25:21

company BYD, is that it, the EV

25:23

company? They should absolutely

25:26

come into the US. They're not a

25:28

security threat. We should have more

25:30

cheap electric cars. We should have more competition. That's

25:32

a great thing. That's not a security

25:34

threat. How are they going to all of a sudden lock

25:36

the steering wheels and drive us to Beijing? I mean, what's

25:38

going to happen? We

25:41

can figure out if they're transmitting data. Xian,

25:46

this low cost apparel manufacturer, sustainability, I

25:48

think young people, some in this room,

25:51

your purchasing power has been cut in half over the

25:53

last 40 years. There's people my age, sequester more and

25:55

more wealth. You should have the opportunity to

25:57

buy cool fashion and feel good about

25:59

yourselves. And I think that's important. And this

26:01

company is probably, I think, that this amazing

26:03

supply chain, they are not part of the

26:05

CCP as far as I can tell. She

26:09

and, in my opinion, we've lost a huge

26:11

opportunity not taking the public on the NYC,

26:13

the NASDAQ. TikTok should be

26:15

banned full stop. Full

26:18

stop. We have

26:21

let the CCP implant in the back of

26:23

the head a neural jack into the wet

26:25

matter of almost every person under the age

26:27

of 25. So

26:29

what if you said, well, the CCP

26:31

owns the New York Times, CNN,

26:36

The Atlantic, Washington Post,

26:39

MSNBC, Fox News,

26:41

NBC, CBS. And

26:43

just for fun, let's throw in, I don't

26:46

know, Gannett. The CCP

26:48

owns all of them. Would we be down with that? Will

26:51

the share of attention commanded people under the age

26:53

of 25 is greater than that? You

26:56

are where you spend your time. And

26:58

the frame of people under the age of 25

27:02

is a media company with direct ties

27:04

to the CCP. And there's evidence of

27:06

this. There

27:09

are eight times as many

27:11

pro-Ukraine videos on reels

27:13

than on TikTok. There's

27:16

600 times more

27:18

Uyghur and free Tibet

27:21

videos on reels than on TikTok.

27:24

So one or two things is happening.

27:26

Either Mark Zuckerberg has his thumb on

27:29

free Tibet, Uyghur, Israel,

27:32

and Ukraine issues. He's decided, I

27:34

care about this stuff. I'm

27:37

going to pervert the algorithms. Or

27:39

the CCP is suppressing Uyghur,

27:41

free Tibet, and dialing up

27:43

content that might divide us.

27:45

And it's a few things. One, I want to

27:47

acknowledge young people have a healthy revulsion

27:50

to what their parents think. That's healthy.

27:54

Oh, dad thinks this. I'm going to think this. Israel

27:57

has not draped itself in glory. Delta

28:00

is three times greater than the delta

28:02

between young people and old people in

28:05

Vietnam across anything. Something

28:07

is going on here. So

28:09

are we really comfortable with

28:12

a future generation of civic

28:14

nonprofit, government, and military

28:16

leaders seeing the

28:19

world through a frame of something

28:21

controlled by the CCP? And here's the good

28:23

news. I mean, I'll give you an example.

28:26

Has anyone got this? Stop

28:29

a TikTok shutdown and it tells you who to call

28:32

and you just call and you call your representative. I

28:34

didn't get this. They figured

28:36

out for whatever reason I shouldn't get this. You know who got

28:39

it? My 13-year-old son. Right

28:42

there, that's the problem. They're

28:44

discerning what messages my 13-year-old should

28:46

get versus his father. I'm uncomfortable

28:49

with that to begin with. So

28:52

what kind of messages are if

28:55

you believe, as I do, the CCP has

28:57

a strategic imperative in de-positioning and weakening our

28:59

role around the world and

29:01

they have the frame through which

29:04

young people see the world, wouldn't

29:06

they be stupid not to do this? It's

29:09

what we do. We

29:11

have a division of the army called PSYOPs.

29:14

You know what they do? They try and

29:16

find and invest in foment and cultivate media

29:18

properties in other parts of the world so

29:20

we can play a pro-American and an anti-adversary

29:23

content calendar. Can

29:25

you imagine what the Mossad or the CIA would do

29:27

with this? And by the way, let's put all of

29:30

that aside. Let's just talk about trade symmetry. If

29:32

they're going to let Tesla into China,

29:34

we should let BYD into the US.

29:37

That makes sense. What

29:39

American media company is in China? They're

29:44

not going to let us talk to their youth. How

29:46

would they let an American company

29:49

influence what their youth see? And

29:51

finally, just practically speaking, you're not

29:53

going to lose your TikTok. A

29:57

ban is terrible use of words. saying,

30:00

if you don't sell this thing, we're going to

30:02

ban it. They will sell it because there's

30:04

too much money involved. The

30:06

reason TikTok and the secondary market is trading at a $250

30:09

billion value on secondary market

30:11

for secondary shares is because of

30:13

this overhang around US political tensions.

30:17

Their biggest investors are in China

30:19

and in the US, and they're

30:21

capitalists, General Atlantic Partners, Sequoia, some

30:23

very big hedge funds, and investors

30:25

in China. They're not going to let

30:27

that $250 billion be wiped out. When

30:32

the threat is credible, this bill passes

30:34

within a few weeks, ByteDance

30:37

announces they are selling to Western

30:39

interests. They get to keep their

30:41

money, and you still get

30:43

your TikTok. This isn't a ban. This

30:45

is saying we need the ownership structure to change

30:47

for defense reasons. I think

30:49

it's going to happen. Well, I just want to

30:51

go back to the bill itself. One of the things

30:54

you often bring up is this difference between being right

30:56

and being effective. When

30:59

I look at this bill, two things strike me. One is

31:01

it's very short. It's only 12 pages long.

31:05

They've had a long time to figure this out. Two

31:07

is how similar it is to

31:11

an executive order that was issued four years

31:13

ago by Trump. How

31:15

does this end in a

31:17

different outcome? They're being smarter, and the

31:19

Trump ban was his blood sugar went

31:22

up, ban it. Then he

31:24

moved on to something else. Essentially, the Chinese

31:26

and the Russians have figured out they were like

31:28

a cat chasing a dot. They're just

31:30

like, just wait them out. By the way, I give the

31:32

president and the White House a lot of credit here because

31:34

I think it'd be easier to wait till after the election.

31:36

I don't think this is going to get him. I'm

31:39

not sure this is going to help him. This is

31:41

a big moving part. A lot of young people will

31:43

get angry. A lot of congresspeople trying to look like

31:45

they're under the age of 90 will

31:48

talk about TikTok and freedom of

31:50

expression. They'll be like,

31:53

we should let TikTok into the

31:55

next. I mean, you're about to

31:57

see so much ridiculous posturing, right?

32:00

I want to be clear. I have been wrong on

32:02

this so far. I said

32:05

two years ago that it was going to be banned

32:07

and it hasn't been. I think it

32:09

should be. And based

32:12

on some conversations I've had with public

32:14

officials, it feels like

32:16

there's bipartisan support. And

32:18

people say, well, it's not popular with the

32:20

citizenry. Either it was

32:22

World War II when we started shipping armaments

32:26

across the Atlantic. That's what leadership looks like.

32:28

I think very smart people have decided this,

32:30

in fact, is a security threat. And by

32:32

the way, we're going to get our cake and

32:34

get to eat it too. And also

32:36

the value of TikTok when

32:38

China announces that they're spinning it to Western,

32:40

it'll double in value the next day. So

32:43

what do we get? An absence of a security

32:45

threat. You're still going to get your TikTok and

32:47

the shareholders are going to double the value of

32:49

this thing overnight when the cloud of this issue

32:52

goes away. So I think

32:54

this is a win-win-win issue. And

32:56

I think it's going to happen every time I

32:58

say that. Every time I say that, it doesn't

33:00

happen. We'll

33:04

be right back. Support

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atlassian.com. That's

34:17

atlassian.com.

34:20

Atlassian. We're

34:32

back with Prodigy Markets. So

34:34

far this year, the S&P 500 has posted

34:36

16 record closers. It's

34:39

also on its longest winning streak in more than 50

34:41

years. Meanwhile, the

34:43

NASDAQ is up 10% year to date,

34:45

and last week it also reached a

34:47

record high. While thriving this

34:50

rally is, of course, AI, as we discussed

34:52

a couple weeks ago, India

34:54

added nearly $280 billion in market

34:56

value in one day, which

34:59

substantially lifted indexes around the world. We're

35:02

now reaching a point, though, where that excitement is

35:04

turning into anxiety, and some analysts are

35:06

suggesting that we might be entering into

35:08

a bubble. In fact, some

35:10

think we're already in one. For example,

35:12

two weeks ago, Apollo Global's chief economist,

35:15

Torsten Slock, wrote, quote, the

35:17

current AI bubble is bigger than the 1990s

35:19

tech bubble. Scott,

35:23

you are a veteran of the.com era.

35:25

In 1999, you started an e-commerce company,

35:27

Red Envelope, which we've discussed. You also

35:30

took that company public. Given

35:32

your experience, do you believe we're

35:34

in a bubble? If you look

35:36

at the PE of the tech companies

35:39

in 1999, they were trading at about 62. These

35:42

are trading at about 59, but the underlying

35:44

economics of these companies is far more impressive

35:47

than the batch of companies measured in 99. These

35:49

companies are actually, if you look at their growth and their earnings,

35:52

you could almost justify this

35:55

valuation. But

35:57

here's the thing. If

35:59

you're... under the age, especially if

36:01

you're under the age of 35 in this audience, every

36:04

frame, every piece of

36:06

media from CNBC, even the words we choose, is

36:09

meant to fuck you and

36:12

transfer wealth from you to me. The

36:15

fear is that we're in a bubble and

36:17

the stocks, these stocks could crash. Okay,

36:22

quick survey. How many of

36:24

you, let's divide you into two groups. There's

36:27

people in this room who are investing. You're

36:29

at a point in your life where you're

36:31

trying to sequester money from your consumption and

36:33

invest. You're investing. There's

36:36

other people who are on the back nine and

36:39

aren't working as much and

36:42

need more money and are harvesting their investments.

36:44

You're either in investment mode or you're in

36:46

harvest mode. How many of you are in

36:48

investment mode? How

36:50

many of you are in harvest mode? Okay,

36:53

about 70, 80% investment mode,

36:56

20% harvest mode. If you're in investment mode,

36:58

if you're the 80% people here, you want

37:03

a bubble. You want a

37:05

crash because

37:08

the entire shooting match for your wealth

37:10

when you're my age is your ability

37:12

to buy these companies at a reasonable

37:14

price. I am

37:16

here for three reasons. One,

37:20

where and when I was born. Being born a

37:22

white heterosexual male in California in the 60s was

37:24

winning the lottery on just a

37:26

ton of dimensions. The economy, the

37:28

unfair advantage I got, the irrational

37:30

passion for my well-being of my mother, and three, the

37:33

University of California that when I applied to UCLA had

37:35

76% admissions rates and $1,200 a

37:40

year tuition. By the way, I had to apply twice to get in. True

37:43

story. It's now $34,000 a year

37:45

and the admissions rate is 9%. That's

37:49

why I'm here. The reason I'm here and

37:51

I can say whatever I want, I can

37:54

be as profane as I want. I mean, let's

37:56

be honest, I'm pretty close to getting canceled or

37:58

shamed a lot. Right?

38:01

Is because I am economically secure.

38:03

And why am I economically secure? I'm

38:06

talented. I'm not a humble. I think I'm

38:09

remarkably talented. I'm not a humble person. I'm

38:12

in the top 1%, which puts me in a

38:14

room with the population of

38:16

Germany, 75 million people. My

38:19

life, my economic security is well above

38:21

that. It's because in 2008, we

38:24

let the economy crash. We

38:30

bailed out banks, but we didn't bail

38:32

out the economy. So guess what I did?

38:35

I took the $800,000 I

38:37

had to my name, just the amount of money, not

38:39

as much as I hoped, given I'd started companies, right?

38:42

And I split it. 400,000 here, 400,000 here. Here

38:46

was Apple. Here was Amazon, right?

38:50

Those stakes are worth $37 million today. Because

38:54

I got to buy in during my

38:56

income earning years because we

38:59

let the markets crash. The

39:02

greatest intergenerational theft

39:04

in history is if you

39:06

were under the age of 40, maybe in

39:08

45, the government and our

39:10

leaders have decided to keep me rich.

39:13

Oh, a million people dying from the virus?

39:15

That would be bad. But what would be

39:17

tragic is that the NASDAQ went down. So

39:20

let's ramp up the debt because

39:22

you and your kids are going to have

39:25

to pay it back and make sure the

39:27

NASDAQ and the stock stay high. And

39:30

it was robbery from you because

39:32

you never got a chance to buy Amazon

39:35

or Apple at a decent

39:37

price. You're buying in at the

39:39

highs because you're in investing mode. So

39:42

is it a bubble? For your sake, I

39:44

hope so. I hope

39:46

so. And also, the

39:48

structurally scary thing here is

39:51

not that the markets collapse. That's

39:54

not scary. The

39:56

scary thing is what might be going on

39:58

here is an absolute structural

40:00

shift in the economy where

40:03

there are a small number

40:05

of companies, people, regions, they

40:07

get all of the gains. S&P up 24% last year. What an amazing

40:11

year. No, it wasn't. About

40:13

1.2% of the companies were responsible

40:16

for all of the gains. Okay,

40:19

that's the definition of income

40:21

inequality about to happen. When

40:23

we don't have a robust set of winners, we

40:26

have a small number of

40:28

people, a small number of companies taking

40:31

it all. The Russell 2000 small

40:33

businesses, right? 40%

40:36

of them now have negative earnings in

40:38

a strong economy. In 1990, it was 18%. So the

40:43

really frightening thing is

40:45

are we moving to a Darwinian

40:48

business environment, all caps, where there

40:50

are a small number of apex

40:52

predators eating everything. And

40:55

unless you're in one of the seven of those 500 companies,

40:59

you have flat returns. That's

41:01

the fear. So I

41:03

think we need a lot more antitrust. I think at some

41:06

point, I don't think any company should be worth more than

41:08

a trillion dollars. I think we should break up Apple. I

41:10

think we should break up Nvidia. And guess

41:12

what? More job growth, right?

41:15

Higher wages competing for people. And by

41:17

the way, those stockholders would get hurt.

41:20

Who's done really well over the last

41:22

30 years, people own stocks who hasn't

41:24

done as well, small business, medium sized

41:26

business and wage earners. Wages

41:28

have been flat for the last 40 years. The

41:30

stock market is screen productivity has gone up like

41:32

crazy. If minimum wage match productivity, it'd be a

41:34

23 bucks an hour, not at 725.

41:37

We have a hindsight bias.

41:39

We think, oh, I'm smart. I mean,

41:41

how many of you actually bought Nvidia? I didn't. I

41:44

didn't. And by the way, if Nvidia

41:46

goes down 50% tomorrow, okay,

41:50

unless you bought it in the last 14 weeks, you're still made

41:52

money. If it went down 18% unless you

41:55

bought it in the last 15 months, you still made

41:57

money. But how on earth Are

42:00

you going to find your Apple

42:02

and Amazon like I did so

42:05

you can have economic security when

42:07

all we're doing is a set

42:09

of economic policies to ensure the

42:11

incumbents, the already wealthy, the baby

42:13

boomers stay rich? That's

42:15

not the priority. Everyone

42:18

should have a shot. When we bailed out

42:20

Shake Shack and every goddamn business during COVID,

42:22

it meant that the recent graduate of the

42:24

Brooklyn Culinary Academy couldn't come in and buy

42:26

a restaurant for pennies on the dollar. Churn,

42:30

turnover, full

42:32

body contact capitalism is meant

42:34

to provide young people with

42:37

opportunities and the ability to

42:39

buy into assets at

42:41

a price when they're in their income

42:43

earning years and the market's correct. And

42:46

we are slowly but surely justifying a series

42:48

of policies such that there's never a correction,

42:50

such that you never get a chance to

42:53

buy in. That was a

42:55

word solid. Well,

43:04

I think the argument that

43:06

Nvidia would make here is that actually

43:09

everyone can participate in this. And

43:11

you mentioned, you know, I haven't bought Nvidia, but Nvidia

43:13

is the third highest weighting in the S&P. Yeah.

43:17

It's the third highest weighting in the

43:19

NASDAQ. So there's likely not a single

43:21

retirement account in America right now that

43:23

doesn't include Nvidia. So

43:26

in a way, we already have that exposure. But what

43:29

you're describing is, you know,

43:31

astronomical returns that you experienced. So what

43:33

would your advice be whether

43:35

or not this is a bubble? We

43:38

track the questions we get. The questions I

43:40

get the most are interesting enough from mothers

43:42

asking for parenting advice about their sons. The

43:45

second most is from young men asking

43:47

for career advice and investment advice. And

43:50

on investment advice, the question I'm getting ends down

43:52

the most right now, is it too late to

43:54

buy Nvidia? Seriously. Because

43:57

people see it in the Greek landscape going in like, should

43:59

I be buying? and then it's too expensive. And then

44:01

it goes up another 20%. It's

44:04

stressful just watching the thing, or I find

44:06

it stressful having not bought it. And

44:09

this is the only advice I can give you, is

44:11

that the financial services sector, every hedge

44:14

fund, every alternative investment, every branded financial

44:16

services company is a giant grift. My

44:19

colleagues down the hall at NYU and the finance

44:21

department have done a ton of analysis. And basically

44:24

every hedge fund, every asset

44:26

class that's branded to charge you fees

44:28

have underperformed the S&P by the amount

44:30

of their fees. The Nvidia plays

44:32

the following. You buy a low

44:34

cost index fund. And

44:37

the S&P, the thing I love about the S&P index fund

44:39

is it's sort of a self selection fund because

44:42

every year they kick out companies not doing well,

44:44

and they bring in the companies that are doing

44:46

well. They kick out Kodak and they bring in

44:48

Salesforce. And you have

44:50

low cost fees. And here's the thing, as a

44:52

young person, you don't need to be a hero.

44:56

Your asset is time. And

44:58

you gotta trust me on this. It

45:00

was an instant ago, I was in this room when I was 25.

45:03

It was an instant. And so if

45:06

I said to you, save $1,000 a month, you're

45:08

all at Atlassian, you're all at a South by

45:11

Southwest. If you really tried hard, you could probably

45:13

save a thousand bucks a month. If

45:15

you're 25 or 30 or 35, and you save a

45:17

thousand bucks a month and you put it in a

45:19

low cost index fund, you're gonna

45:21

be financially secure. And

45:24

you're probably, if you were like me, I didn't do that. And

45:26

I ended up in a very vulnerable spot when my first kid

45:28

came along at 42. I'm like, Jesus Christ,

45:30

I'm not as economically secure as I thought. Because

45:33

I fell into the trap of thinking, I'm a baller.

45:36

I've taken a company public. I'm

45:39

waiting for the 10, 50, $100 million payday. And

45:41

it's gonna happen, check my shit out. It's gonna

45:43

happen. And it didn't. A

45:45

divorce, the dot bomb implosion, the great financial

45:48

recession, I ended up with a lot less

45:50

money than I thought. And

45:52

if I had just put a little bit of

45:54

money away and recognized a flaw

45:56

in the species, the majority of the species, for

45:58

the majority of the time, time on our planet

46:01

has not lived past 35. So

46:03

we can't calibrate time. You

46:06

are going to be my H. 99.4% of

46:08

you will live to be 65.

46:11

And it's going to happen so fast. Do

46:13

yourself a favor and have a plan B.

46:16

And that is get rich slowly. And

46:19

you can. You know, the thing I would

46:21

end on, more like a Hallmark moment. Investing

46:23

compounds, it's like relationships. Every

46:26

wonderful relationship I have is a function

46:28

of early in my life. I made

46:31

small investments. Text them

46:33

what's going on. I made efforts, little

46:35

efforts, checked in, showed concern,

46:38

right? Those relationships compound

46:42

generosity, showing people concern,

46:44

regard consistently in

46:47

a disciplined way from a

46:49

young age. You wake up

46:51

with these enormously dramatically

46:53

more valuable relationships than you'd ever anticipated.

46:55

Relationships and generosity compound too. You don't

46:57

need to be a hero. You don't

46:59

want to try and find the needle

47:02

in the haystack. Buy the whole haystack

47:04

and every month put a little bit

47:06

of money in an index fund because

47:08

everyone on CNBC, not everyone, but 90%

47:10

of them are grifters. Grifters

47:13

charging you 2 and 20 for

47:15

what? So you can feel special because you

47:17

got into some fund or you saw their

47:19

commercial low cost index

47:21

funds. And for God's sakes, don't

47:24

day trade. Don't

47:26

day trade. Back to you Ed.

47:37

Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll

47:39

see inflation dates of February from the

47:41

consumer and producer price indices. We'll

47:44

also see earnings from Adobe, Oracle

47:46

and Soho House. And

47:48

finally Reddit is kicking off its

47:50

IPO Roadshow. Do you have

47:52

any predictions? My prediction is the back half

47:54

of the year, we're going to see an

47:57

IPO Palooza. I think it's going

47:59

to be a great Q3 and Q4 for IPOs

48:02

and everyone is waiting the bankers companies

48:04

are all waiting for one or two

48:06

companies to inspire the market with a

48:08

Huge pop first-day trading that'll get everyone's

48:10

Greek lines going there are Hundreds

48:13

of billions of dollars in funds that

48:15

are do nothing but invest in IPOs and

48:17

we've had one of the slowest IPO markets Last two years

48:19

we've had in 40 years So

48:22

who's the icebreaker who's gonna set the

48:24

IPO markets on fire with big one-day

48:26

pops? This is speculative. It's dangerous to

48:28

do this because everyone on Twitter will remind me when

48:31

I get it wrong But the

48:33

two companies that I think are going to be the

48:35

icebreakers that set the IPO markets on fire Over the

48:37

next six months are going to be one reddit and

48:39

then number two is gonna be she in and that's

48:42

all show Read

48:47

out the credits because I always talk to you this episode

48:50

was produced by Claire Miller who's sitting right there Engineered

48:52

by Benjamin Spencer our executive producers of

48:54

Jason Stavros and Catherine Dillon Mira

48:57

Silveri is our research lead and Drew

48:59

Bowers is our technical director Thank you

49:01

for listening to Profft market here

49:03

in the Atlassian Austin office from the Vox

49:05

Media Podcast Network Join us

49:08

on Wednesday for office hours and we'll be

49:10

back with a fresh take on market on

49:12

Monday. Thank you I

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