0:02

Hey,

0:02

everyone. Robby here with Rob Dee,

0:04

and you are listening to the property broadcaster

0:07

and you are in for a shreats.

0:09

There is so much happening in

0:11

the world right now with the economy and

0:13

property. We react to the budgets.

0:15

We give you a mortgage market update.

0:18

talk about interest rates, house prices,

0:20

and so so much more, and even

0:22

as you'd expect a few months. It's

0:25

a cracking episode coming up.

0:33

Welcome to the property podcast. Thank you for joining

0:35

us, and we've been doing this podcast for nearly ten

0:37

years. We've been active in the property industry for

0:39

much longer than that. And this last week has

0:41

been up there. But it's the saddest

0:43

weeks we've ever seen. There is an insane

0:46

amount going on. We'll be breaking it all down

0:48

for you and talking about what we're doing in this

0:50

market as well. that is coming up. But

0:52

I don't think this week is gonna be the end of it.

0:54

There's gonna be a lot to talk about over the coming

0:56

weeks and months. So now it'd be a great

0:58

time to make sure that you are following the property

1:00

podcasts to ensure you get every episode sent direct

1:03

to your phone. So on Apple Podcasts, hit

1:05

the little plus button on Spotify, hit follow.

1:07

So you don't miss an because right now is a

1:09

time when you need to know what's going on.

1:12

So before we get going, you

1:13

may have noticed that this is episode

1:16

499 So we have

1:18

a very special episode. I'm

1:20

not next week episode five

1:22

hundred. We are nearly ten years since

1:24

this. This is absolutely bonkers. Episode five

1:26

hundred is an incredible milestone because

1:28

we've not missed a single week

1:31

in those five hundred episodes and

1:33

to celebrate, we're taking a week off. No,

1:35

we're not really. We're doing something

1:37

out of the ordinary though, Rob. We're not taking a week

1:39

off, which would be out of the ordinary, but We're

1:42

gonna do something else that's little bit more valuable

1:44

to our whole community. Yeah. It should

1:46

be a lot of fun. So we are gonna be

1:48

recording Episodes five hundred live

1:51

on YouTube. So we try not to do stuff on video.

1:53

We try not to do stuff unedited. We're doing both

1:55

of those things. This is the first time ever you could actually

1:57

watch us record a podcast live on

1:59

YouTube. It'll be broadcast next

2:01

week as episode five hundred, but we're recording

2:03

it tomorrow because let's be honest, our editor's

2:05

gonna need a pretty long run at this. You can

2:08

do this tomorrow, that's Friday the seventh at

2:10

midday, and be there in the chat, interact

2:12

with us, and watch us record episode

2:14

five hundred. And all you need to do is

2:16

subscribe to our channel on YouTube so that

2:18

will be available to you. So just go to YouTube

2:20

search property hub. Make sure you subscribe to

2:22

our channel and hit the notification bell

2:24

because then you'll get an alert when we

2:26

go live. It's gonna be a lot of

2:28

fun. We'll be answering your questions

2:30

and now there's a fair bit going on in the world.

2:32

We will obviously be covering that and we'll

2:34

also feel questions about the part. We've been

2:36

doing it for a long time then. So what would you like to

2:38

know about the podcast? And of course,

2:41

we might answer the old property question as well.

2:43

So make sure you join us for that. And as

2:45

Rob said,

2:46

not only subscribe to the PropertyHub

2:48

channel, but do make sure you

2:50

set the notifications up so you do not

2:52

miss it. Because I got the feeling will only ever

2:55

do one live episode. I'm

2:57

already feeling pretty confident about that.

2:59

So make sure you do not miss it, turn on

3:01

the notification bell. And as soon as

3:03

we go live, you can join us.

3:06

Time

3:06

for market update and, wow,

3:08

there is so much going on. This

3:10

is our monthly market date, we could easily

3:13

make it a weekly market update. Last

3:15

week's episode, we recorded three days before

3:17

it went out and already parts of it were out

3:19

of date by the time it did. There's so much

3:21

going on. It's really hard to keep up.

3:23

So in this episode, we are gonna guide

3:25

you towards what we believe are the most

3:27

consequential things out of all of that that you need

3:29

to know about as a property investor and

3:32

give you our take on what it all means.

3:34

And at the end, we're gonna talk about what

3:36

we're personally doing in response to everything

3:38

that's going on at the moment. Now to start with

3:40

and highly recommend you listen to last

3:42

week's episode. So even though parts of it were out

3:44

to date, what we did do is

3:46

cover the budget in quite a

3:48

bit of detail and our reaction to it

3:51

and spoiler alert, we

3:52

felt it could be a great and

3:55

awful budget all in one. And if you

3:57

want to understand why, then go and listen

3:59

to that episode. Because dependent on your

4:01

point of view, it will be either

4:03

great or awful and probably not a lot in

4:05

between What's

4:06

interesting is we'd question

4:08

the forty five p tax band

4:10

removal. But the tax band removal

4:12

has been removed or reversed should say, and

4:14

they are no longer doing

4:16

that Rob. And when you found out

4:19

you were a a tab perplexed,

4:21

not because you felt you were taking a big tax hate,

4:23

but just perplexed at how

4:25

our government is operating at the moment. Yeah.

4:27

I said it was cheap, but I said

4:29

because when do you agree with the policy

4:31

or not? they've already come out and said, while

4:33

trying to justify it, look, it actually makes very

4:35

little difference in terms of how much tax is

4:37

collected. And they've already justified

4:39

their reasons for doing it. They believe it simplifies

4:41

the tax system. It provides stronger incentives

4:44

to work and create jobs and things like that

4:46

without affecting the tax take. they may be right or

4:48

they may be wrong, but the point is they've already

4:50

taken a week of heat for everyone hating

4:52

this. So they may as well have just ridden it

4:54

out. Memories in politics are pretty short.

4:56

I don't see the point in doing something that you believe

4:58

in and think is a good idea. Take a load of heat

5:00

for it for a week, and they go, ah, actually, we're not gonna

5:02

do it after all. You might as well just carried on because now

5:04

they've got the worst of both worlds. they've been

5:06

put in this position of having to back down and

5:08

look weak. I think the mistake that they

5:10

made was kind of reading the room wrongly

5:12

to start with. they couldn't have realized that

5:14

how bad the response to this budget

5:16

would have been. Otherwise, they would have approached

5:19

it differently. But having done it,

5:20

It's done. So for me, I think this

5:23

reversal takes a

5:25

mess up, which was putting out this set of

5:27

policies without an awareness of what it

5:29

would trigger or doing anything to mitigate that.

5:31

and then compounding it with another mistake by just looking

5:33

weak. I completely agree, Rob.

5:35

And to repeat, it's not about us being in

5:37

favor or not in favor of the policy. It's

5:39

just the message it sends because now,

5:42

understandably, people would question,

5:44

well, if you've got that wrong, why

5:46

else have you got wrong? So it then

5:48

brings the whole budget into

5:50

question, which the markets have been

5:52

doing quite well over the last week as well.

5:54

And the real story of the budget

5:56

wasn't the budget itself, it turned

5:58

out, but the reaction to the budget, which you

6:00

really touched on, Rob. And the

6:02

pound took an absolute hammering.

6:06

after the budget was announced. And the

6:08

markets basically said, we do

6:10

not like this budget. This budget is not

6:12

good for the longer term autonomy of the UK.

6:14

Now before we get into our reaction

6:16

of the markets and what's played out.

6:18

I think, Rob, in case someone's been living

6:20

under a rock for the last week, let's give them

6:22

a quick update of exactly what did

6:24

play out. trying to explain this simply

6:27

without oversimplifying it. But basically,

6:29

as we've already said, the market

6:31

hated their budget. And it

6:32

seems like the main reason that they hated it is

6:34

that the government was cutting tax. So

6:36

less tax coming in, which would then mean more

6:38

borrowing, would have to make up the gap.

6:41

As we've already said, the markets hated

6:43

this budget. And the main reason they seemed

6:45

to hate it was that it's gonna result

6:47

in a lot more borrowing. So

6:49

the energy cap. We already knew about that, and

6:51

that's obviously gonna involve a lot of borrowing

6:53

because they need to go to the markets to borrow the

6:55

money, to give to the energy suppliers, to

6:57

keep everyone's bills down. But that

6:59

we knew about. But then on top of that, there were

7:01

these tax cuts. Even if there were good

7:03

reasons for doing them over the longer term

7:05

immediately means less revenue coming

7:07

in, which means unless you cut spending

7:10

more borrowing to make up the difference.

7:12

And this basically spooked the markets.

7:14

They were looking at the government going out and

7:16

needing to do all this future borrowing. which

7:18

is gonna mean a greater supply of government bonds

7:20

on the market. And as a result of

7:22

that, two things happened. First one is

7:24

people sold the pound. They felt

7:26

less confident about the prospects of the

7:28

UK. They sold the pound, which

7:30

reduced its value relative to

7:32

the dollar. The value of the pound plummeted,

7:34

which scared everyone. Also, the debt

7:36

market lost a lot of confidence. They

7:38

looked at what was going on and realized they

7:40

weren't very comfortable owning government

7:42

debt anymore or not as confident as they were. especially

7:44

because there'd be more supply of it coming onto

7:46

the market soon because of all the extra

7:48

borrowing. Therefore, there

7:50

was a sell off of bonds. And when

7:52

that happens, it pushes up the yields on those

7:54

bonds, which pushes up the price of government

7:57

borrowing. So basically, there's a lot of interaction

7:59

between all this difference stuff all triggered

8:01

by a loss of confidence. The result of

8:03

which was that the government not only gonna be needing

8:05

to borrow more, but the cost of that

8:07

borrowing was possibly gonna be higher than they

8:09

expected. because of bond yields

8:11

increasing. And because of all these

8:13

factors interacting and because bond yields

8:15

increased so rapidly as a result,

8:17

it then would have had a knock on effect. into

8:19

something that most of us had never even given any

8:21

thought of until it's happened, which is

8:23

pension funds.

8:24

Now explaining what's exactly happened

8:27

with the pension companies and why they'd

8:29

come onto so much pressure. Is a podcast

8:31

in itself or a YouTube video?

8:33

Now, we've not got time to do a whole

8:35

podcast on this subject just yet. Unfortunately,

8:37

a YouTuber that Rob and I both follow has

8:39

done a great job on this.

8:41

And the video you want to watch if you want to get

8:43

more detail is by Patrick Boyle. I'm pretty sure

8:45

we've mentioned them on the podcast before. The

8:47

video is called pension and mortgage chaos in

8:49

the UK. So if you search for

8:51

that, plus Patrick Oil, you'll find it, but

8:53

you'll also see the link in our show

8:55

notes. It was actually quite serious

8:57

what played out, and the results couldn't

8:59

have been catastrophic. So then

9:01

the Bank of England had to

9:03

step in. And the Bank of England methodology

9:05

stepped in to talk about interest rates and what

9:07

they would be prepared to do. more on that in a

9:09

moment when we get to mortgages. But

9:12

the Bank of England have also

9:14

effectively started QE

9:16

again. by buying long

9:18

term government bonds. You may have

9:20

also heard this referred to as guilt, but

9:22

it's the same thing. Now this is an

9:24

unusual move. But in an

9:26

inflationary environment which we're in right now,

9:28

a big part of what's going on in the world

9:30

and why so many economies are struggling. It's

9:32

because of high inflation. that we've not even

9:34

got to yet in the podcast which is

9:36

crazy. You would not expect

9:38

to see QE because effectively

9:41

QE is a contributing factor

9:43

to inflation, and it's the type of

9:45

QE you do as well. Again, this is

9:47

a big topic and I'm sure

9:49

we'll come back to this in the next few weeks.

9:51

But QE is quantitative easing

9:53

and the easiest way to describe

9:55

quantitative easing. is it's like printing

9:57

money. You don't physically print money, but it's

9:59

money creation into the system. So

10:01

basically, the Bank of England created

10:03

money out of thin air to buy these

10:05

bonds. and they didn't just buy a

10:07

couple. They bought sixty five billion

10:09

pounds worth. So that's a lot

10:11

of money that's been created that wasn't

10:13

there before. to buy bonds that was not

10:15

needed a week before. So so

10:17

much has happened right now. I

10:19

appreciate this is a

10:21

lot to take it, and Rob and I read all

10:23

this stuff day in, day out, and absorb it, and

10:25

try and give you the nuggets to headlines. And

10:27

hopefully, this has come across. But

10:29

we, honestly, have had

10:31

to cut so much news out

10:33

today. This could have been a two hour

10:35

podcast. There's so much happening right now, but we're

10:37

just trying to take you through the

10:39

biggest bits, the most important bits and the bits that

10:41

are gonna impact you. And while

10:43

the pound falling and

10:46

that QE taking place is

10:48

very newsworthy and will

10:50

impact the economy. It doesn't really

10:52

impact you day to day. And actually,

10:54

Rob, want to focus on this because it's

10:56

so important. We did a webinar last week, which

10:58

is amazing. And I really hammered on

11:00

about not focusing on the media because

11:02

Dementia absolutely went

11:04

to town on the pound falling, and it did.

11:06

It went to an all time low. But

11:09

what's not been reported is

11:11

it's recovered. And as we record this,

11:14

the pound now is one

11:16

twelve to the dollar, which is what

11:18

it was after pretty much before the budget.

11:20

yeah, it's all big scary headlines about the pound

11:22

collapse. It's not really explaining why it would affect this

11:24

day to day or why you should be scared, but just

11:27

that you need to be scared. So

11:29

everybody fucks themselves. and then

11:31

it's gone back up recovered to where it

11:33

was before. Not a murmur.

11:34

Nothing.

11:35

No.

11:36

Good news, pounds recovered. Everyone

11:38

calmed down. They'll have to ensue the agenda.

11:40

that there might actually be some

11:43

reasonably good news. And actually, it's not as bad

11:45

as everyone thought, and the pounds

11:47

didn't go to parity. and

11:49

it it bounced back. Now it may drop again,

11:51

but my point isn't the movement of

11:53

the pound against the dollar. My point is

11:55

the negative influence to media has

11:57

on your lives. It's incredible. So

12:00

while we are going from the news here, something

12:02

I really want to go across is

12:04

really check yourselves for in consumer

12:06

media. Yes, the power moving is interesting,

12:08

but it doesn't have to be scary. And

12:10

for most people, it's not going to impact

12:12

you, certainly in the short term. So don't let

12:14

it worry you. And don't let most of these

12:16

headlines worry you because we've

12:18

been through crisis after crisis after

12:20

crisis. In the middle of pandemic, that

12:22

was pretty scary. Right? we're here

12:24

now. Yes, terrible things

12:26

happened. But if we can survive a

12:28

worldwide pandemic, we can

12:30

also survive a negative reaction to

12:32

a budget. that's all it is really, isn't

12:34

it? A negative reaction to a budget.

12:36

When you say like that and put it's perspective,

12:38

it's kind of a lot less than some of the things we've

12:40

been through in the last ten years. And you

12:42

know I

12:42

didn't even know that the pounders recovered that far.

12:44

I knew that it had stopped falling and it'd come back a little

12:46

bit, but I completely missed it. It was pretty

12:48

much back to where it started. before

12:51

this happened because like you say, it just hasn't

12:53

been reported anywhere. And the other reason I

12:55

hadn't noticed, it doesn't affect me. Like it

12:57

doesn't affect most people day to day. which also

12:59

ties exactly back into what you were just

13:01

saying. This all ties into something that does

13:03

affect listeners of this podcast, which

13:05

is mortgages. And the other big

13:07

story of the last week is in the

13:09

number of mortgage products that have been pulled

13:11

from the market. So the headline that

13:13

we linked to says nearly three hundred

13:15

deals pulled. it then went up to a

13:17

thousand. I've got a feeling it may have ended up

13:19

being sixteen hundred in the end. It was a lot. A

13:21

lot of mortgage products got pulled from the market,

13:23

and this made a lot of headlines. It's very

13:25

prominent on the BBC. A lot of people

13:27

are contacting me about it. And that

13:29

can, of course, be really bad news

13:31

depending on where you are in the buying

13:33

process. if were just about to put in an application and

13:35

for some reason you needed to put in that application

13:37

really quickly. So let's say you're a

13:39

first time buyer You've just found your

13:41

dream home. You've done all your numbers. You can just

13:43

about afford it. Just about what's to be based on this

13:45

handful of mortgage products. And then

13:47

suddenly, they're all pulled. you currently

13:49

can't proceed with your purchase. You don't know if

13:51

those products are coming back and you don't know at what

13:53

price they'll be coming back. And if that

13:55

property you're gonna buy will still work for

13:57

you. That's bad. But, Robert, I think

13:59

this is another one that we need to put into

14:01

context because I think it's very easy to leap

14:03

to the interpretation of, oh no,

14:05

mortgage lenders are so scared by what's

14:07

happening in the markets. They think property is gonna crash.

14:09

Therefore, they're not willing to lend anymore. But if you

14:11

actually go and look at the reasons for what

14:13

happened, it's a little bit less scary than

14:15

that. It is. And there's a really

14:17

good piece in the Feet where they've

14:19

covered this and the reasons behind it, not

14:21

just the headlines of what's happening. this

14:23

all began when the Bank of England,

14:26

in an

14:26

effort to stabilize the pound

14:28

and bring calm back to the markets.

14:30

went out and said, we're prepared

14:33

to move interest rates up aggressively

14:35

and before our next scheduled announcement.

14:38

It didn't look like at the time. It had much

14:40

impact on the pound, but it did hit to have a

14:42

huge impact on the mortgage market because

14:45

suddenly, lenders was spooked.

14:47

And the reason they were spooked is they anticipated

14:50

a surge of people trying to

14:52

lock in fixed

14:54

rate products. Understandably right. You'd want a fixed

14:56

rate if you think interest rates are going to go,

14:58

particularly if the Bank of England have made an

15:00

unscheduled scary announcement. So

15:02

the first to make a move on this was

15:04

the smaller lenders. So lenders like

15:06

atom bank, Virgin Money,

15:08

because they are far more

15:10

vulnerable to surges

15:12

in the market. So they

15:14

removed their fixed rate products, which

15:16

then in turn, put pressure

15:18

on other lenders, particularly the smaller ones,

15:20

to be not the last lender standing.

15:22

But the last ones in the market were the

15:24

big lenders, but because all the smaller lenders that

15:26

by this point have moved out, they don't have to

15:28

remove their products. So it was a

15:30

knock on effect. It was a domino effect of

15:32

panic. you can understand how the planning

15:34

started. Now, spectacular,

15:36

at least I think it's spectacular.

15:38

The Bank of England have indicated

15:40

now that they will not raise interest rates

15:42

before its next scheduled announcement.

15:44

So we've had all this

15:46

turmoil in the mortgage

15:48

market. and for lenders in

15:50

general, with the Bank of England making

15:52

this statement that didn't seem to impact the pounds

15:54

at the time anyway. And

15:56

now they've

15:57

come back and said, well, actually,

15:59

we're gonna wait till our

16:01

scheduled time in November. When?

16:04

they are forecasted to

16:06

raise interest rates, but that's

16:08

okay for lenders because lenders

16:10

know when it's gonna happen. and can make

16:12

adjustments accordingly to that timetable.

16:14

What they can't do

16:16

is make plans and adjustments if the

16:18

Bank of England threatened to come out at

16:20

any point and raise rates, and that's

16:22

why the panic was caused. So

16:24

what should you do and what will happen

16:27

over the next few weeks or months? Well,

16:29

hopefully, another Bank of England have indicated

16:31

that they're not gonna actually do

16:33

anything until November. The

16:35

markets can resettle, reprice

16:37

their products, and release those different products

16:40

to the market. Yes, of course,

16:42

they'll be slightly higher than

16:44

before, but that's because the Bank of England

16:46

is expected to raise rates on

16:48

November third. So at

16:49

the moment, unless you're forced to

16:52

do not worry about making

16:54

changes to your mortgage or trying

16:56

to get a product in place. Only

16:58

do that if you're absolutely forced to. The

17:00

best thing you can do over the next week

17:02

or two is do nothing. Yes, if you're on standard

17:04

variable rates, maybe you have to

17:06

pay more for one extra month until the

17:08

market settle again. but I'm in that

17:10

position and I'm just waiting for the markets to

17:13

settle. And then once they've

17:15

settled and we know what we're dealing with and the

17:17

lenders can introduce the products back to

17:19

the market then it's a

17:21

much better time to

17:22

lock in a product. So don't

17:24

do anything for the next two weeks while this

17:27

turmoil calms down. and it is

17:29

starting to calm down already. And

17:31

then you'll be in a much better place to make

17:33

a better informed decision. That's right. I think

17:35

it's tempting to go, oh my goodness. They're gonna

17:37

come out and raise rates again. Therefore, I need to

17:39

get in now, but mortgage rates as well as

17:41

the base rate being a factor, are priced off

17:43

long term bond rates as well.

17:45

and something called the swap rate, which is insanely boring,

17:47

is important when it comes to this. And that

17:49

is something that's been all over the place over the

17:52

last week because of everything that's been going on. and has

17:54

started to settle down. So while attempting to

17:56

think, I need to do something right now, actually

17:58

it's far better. To wait for the market to settle down,

18:00

to wait for lenders to figure out what they're

18:03

doing again, get a full product range back, then you'll be

18:05

in a stronger position to take action and make

18:07

decisions like how long you should be

18:09

fixing for. Now with all this turmoil

18:11

and there is a lot right, you

18:13

will then naturally start to

18:15

think about property prices and what

18:18

is happening there and

18:20

with all the scary news, which

18:22

we've kind of said already, don't be so

18:24

scared by. And even

18:27

headlines predicting or

18:29

stating that there's a up house price

18:31

crash we're the following market.

18:34

Well, no. We're not actually. Unfortunately,

18:36

the data doesn't back up the headlines.

18:38

and the market experience that we have day to

18:41

day doesn't back up those scary

18:43

headlines. Is there a

18:43

slowdown? Yes. But we were having a slowdown

18:46

before the last four night

18:48

played out. So, Rob, what is actually

18:50

happening? Beyond the headlines, what is

18:52

playing out? Well, we don't know

18:54

what's going to happen in response to

18:56

everything that's happened over the last week, and we

18:59

don't know where mortgage rates are gonna settle, and that's

19:01

gonna be an important factor. What we can

19:03

do is look at what's happening right

19:05

now. if you do look at what's happening right now, there's a couple of things that I

19:07

think are particular interest. The first

19:09

is that more property listings are posting

19:12

reductions from their original asking

19:14

price. So there are more reductions

19:16

now than there were three months ago, six

19:18

months ago, a year ago. That is not a

19:20

surprise. That is a sign of a cooling market, which we've

19:22

been talking about over the

19:24

last couple of months. But the proportion of

19:27

reductions is only back to two thousand

19:29

and nineteen levels. and

19:31

two thousand and nineteen levels are interestingly actually a

19:33

bit lower than two thousand and eighteen levels. So the

19:35

point is it's not like that suddenly everyone

19:37

is panicking and slashing their prices.

19:39

It's just that for the last couple of years, the

19:42

market has been so bonkers

19:44

that hardly anyone has needed to reduce

19:46

their prices. and now it's coming back more

19:48

towards a normal market. And that's something

19:50

we talked about in our recent YouTube

19:52

video because the market is

19:54

cooling, there are reductions and there is a possibility to go out and negotiate

19:56

a deal. Not saying that it's easy

19:58

now, but it's functioning more like the

20:00

normal market that we were used to

20:03

in two thousand nineteen and

20:05

before. The other point is around

20:07

demand. Naturally demand is going to be

20:09

reducing as people are concerned about the cost of

20:11

living, concerned about mortgage rates etcetera,

20:14

etcetera. And demand has fallen from

20:16

the peak, but again, it's still

20:18

above its five year average. So the pattern

20:20

that we're seeing here is not a market in

20:22

free fall or anything like that. And prices over

20:24

the last month according to Nationwide were

20:26

flat. So prices have risen by

20:28

according to home track eight percent over the last year, they're

20:30

not falling. And there's no

20:32

panic in the market, but it just feels different because

20:34

we've been used to an abnormal market

20:37

for the last couple of years. I think it's important to say

20:40

that prices can fall. And if

20:42

we do see a month on month fall before the

20:44

end of this year, I wouldn't

20:46

be shocked, but you gotta put it into context.

20:48

You don't buy something expecting the price of it to

20:50

just go up in a straight line forever and yet hold

20:52

off from buying something if you're buying it for the long term

20:54

because the price of it may dip for a little bit.

20:56

It's very difficult to say what's gonna happen with house

20:58

prices month to month over the next

21:00

little bit. because everything that's going on is so

21:02

crazy. But I think you just have to look back to the

21:04

underlying patterns of supply and demand. And

21:06

like I've just mentioned, although we've seen the

21:08

heat come out of the market, I

21:10

think is actually a good thing, that's looking pretty healthy.

21:12

So hopefully, you feel a

21:14

bit

21:14

different now after hearing

21:17

that because That's not really

21:19

being reported anywhere else.

21:21

House prices not falling and are up

21:23

over eight percent year on year. much

21:25

of a headline grabber is it? And like

21:27

Rob said, it might have an edited month.

21:29

And if it does, Wowsers wait

21:31

for the media to get a hold of that. But over

21:33

the long term, we're still pretty

21:36

confident. And actually, towards the end of this part,

21:38

we'll talk about what we're doing right now.

21:40

Before we get there, Rob, let's wrap up with a few

21:42

other quick stories. The first of which

21:44

is rents are still

21:46

rising. The rate of growth is slowing, and this

21:48

is recorded to home track, the report that

21:50

they've put out recently on the rental

21:52

market for the third quarter this year.

21:54

But still going up.

21:56

So rents are increasing and that's

21:58

a trend that we've been seeing

21:59

for a long time. So

22:01

as mortgages for a

22:03

lot of investors at the moment are on

22:05

the up, then having rents on the up

22:07

as well is helpful. you can

22:09

offset some of that or maybe all of that cost via the

22:12

rental market pushing on.

22:14

Obviously, not so great for renters, but

22:16

all of us are paying more at the

22:19

moment. So having the rents increase

22:21

means that actually, on

22:23

paper property, and the returns we

22:25

get are

22:25

still pretty much where they were a few

22:27

months ago because the rents are doing

22:29

quite well and remaining strong. Yeah.

22:31

The strength of rents is really good news

22:34

for investors and actually loads more than we

22:36

could say about the patterns of rental demand, but we

22:38

need to move on to politics. because we've talked about the week's big

22:40

news story when it comes to politics. But there are

22:42

actually some stories that would have been massive

22:44

headline grabbers in any other

22:46

week. but have gone completely under the radar because of everything else

22:48

that's been going on. The first is, though, is that

22:50

Labour has had its party conference and what

22:52

Labour thinks about housing could become relevant

22:55

given what the polls are looking like at the moment. And they've had their conference where

22:57

they've laid out something that they're calling their

22:59

renters charter. Most of that is

23:01

pledging things that the current government has

23:03

already said it's going to do. But there are a couple of other

23:06

bits in there as well. One of them is it wants to

23:08

take notice periods to four months

23:10

rather than the current two.

23:12

want to end mandatory evictions

23:14

for rent arrears. So currently, if a

23:16

tenant has got a small amount of rental

23:18

arrears and you try to go to court to get an

23:20

eviction order, it's up to the judge whether they grant

23:22

that or not. But when arrears get to a certain

23:24

level, they have to give her possession. Labor

23:26

wants to end that. There's so much we could say about

23:28

all of this, Rob, but we're running

23:30

long. maybe this will be come on to come back to

23:32

in the future. There's certainly a couple of things in

23:34

there that property investors won't be happy to

23:36

see. Not that the Guardian will care, Rob.

23:38

and that is our and finally news

23:41

story of the day. And let me

23:43

read you a headline from

23:45

The Guardian. selling

23:46

up and raising rents, how landlords

23:48

are cashing in and exacerbating

23:50

the cost of living crisis.

23:53

So, landlords, you're just ruining it for

23:55

everyone. So first

23:57

of all, you're putting up

23:59

urine your rents. Yes, I know

24:01

mortgage costs are going up, but you've just

24:03

got to burden them. Okay? You need to

24:05

be hit by those rising costs.

24:08

Now you can't raise your rents, but

24:10

If you think, you know what? I wanna get out of

24:12

this market. How dare you? Because

24:15

you are now causing less stock to be

24:17

available because you're leaving

24:19

the market. and you are now taking your properties

24:21

out of the rental sector, making it

24:23

harder for tenants to find properties.

24:25

So basically, you can't win

24:28

either way. It's a how dare

24:30

you if you stay in the market and it's a how

24:32

dare you if you leave the market. But the

24:34

thing is and if Ruby from the

24:36

Guardian is listening, If

24:38

you hate something so much,

24:41

anything in your life, then it tends to

24:43

leave. And if landlords are

24:45

continuing to be hated on, continuously and

24:47

aggressively, and they do leave the

24:49

market, then that is only

24:51

going to hurt renters.

24:54

only inherit them because they'll

24:55

be less stock there.

24:57

Why will

24:57

landlords want to pull up with

25:00

abuse? on an ongoing basis harder

25:02

conditions to work it. Here's the truth

25:05

right. landlords don't get

25:07

rich from renting out properties.

25:10

They may be able to

25:12

generate long term wealth. And in the

25:14

majority of cases, they may be able to provide

25:16

themselves a pension in the future and

25:18

pass them on to future generations. I

25:20

don't think that's a bad thing.

25:22

And they also provide houses

25:25

for people and people

25:27

need to rent and some people to

25:30

rent. My podcast partner for

25:32

example, he chooses to rent. Rensing

25:34

is not a low life activity

25:36

that we must all suddenly never want to do

25:38

and only want to own

25:41

homes. Yes. Some people want to own own

25:43

homes. There's not landlords stopping

25:45

them. although you would think so from the

25:47

headlines. So I like to think on the

25:49

part we're pretty balanced when it comes

25:51

to policies, politics, how

25:54

society should operate, how's the rules of the

25:56

game are unfair when we talk about that a

25:58

lot. However, the unwavering landlords

26:00

is not going to

26:02

help society most landlords are good

26:04

landlords. Most landlords provide good homes.

26:06

Yes, there is the old bad one, but there is the

26:08

old bad person acting

26:10

in every sector of every walk

26:12

of life. and

26:13

just because there are a few bad landlords

26:15

doesn't mean that we should constantly abuse

26:17

and pick our landlords. Rob, I think

26:19

we're probably gonna be lonely voices and

26:21

not for landlords. And I feel it's probably

26:24

been overdue for us to do it, but this

26:26

story and this headline is

26:28

ridiculous. is ridiculous, but it is but

26:30

one story. I think pretty much every day

26:32

though Guardian has a very similar story with

26:34

a very similar headline. with a very similar

26:36

story of one person whose details have been anonymized,

26:38

having a crap time of it. And you know what? I'm sure it's

26:40

not hard to find one person a day who's having a

26:42

bad experience with an landlord. We would be hard to find

26:44

one person having a bad to a lot of things like you've

26:46

just said. I'm having a bad experience with the Guardian

26:49

Rob. There you go.

26:51

But I'm sure those stories get clicks. which is pretty much

26:53

the name of the game and ties very much back

26:55

into the warning about the media which

26:57

you gave earlier. So that's a lot right.

26:59

We've been through a huge amount and we've

27:02

cut out far more than we've kept This could have been

27:04

triple the length very easily. How do

27:06

we wrap it up? Well well, probably the

27:08

best way to get an overall impression of

27:10

how we feel about everything that's going

27:13

on is not what we're saying, but what we're

27:15

actually doing. So as well as

27:17

advising a fund, as well as arranging of

27:19

transactions a year for our

27:21

investors, we are investors ourselves. So,

27:23

Rob, for you, as a private investor,

27:25

as an individual, forgetting everything that

27:27

you do in business. how are you responding

27:29

to the madness of everything that's going on

27:31

right now? Well, obviously, I'm investing. And

27:34

you may expect that to

27:36

be the answer all

27:37

the time, but actually it's not the case. I've

27:40

just invested in a property,

27:42

but that's the first one I've done this

27:44

year. because actually the first half of this year was two bunkers for

27:46

me. And what I mean by bunkers is

27:48

property prices were surging.

27:50

It was hard to transact because

27:53

people were getting gazump left right in center.

27:55

State agents weren't acting

27:58

really that well. Not

28:00

everyone, of course, did some very good state

28:02

agents there. But there are plenty of state agents who

28:04

were very much milking the situation

28:07

and making it hard for

28:09

people to transact unless they were willing to act immediately,

28:11

possibly without even a view in a property. So

28:13

it was just an all around crazy time.

28:16

And of course, you have to work harder in that

28:18

market to get a deal.

28:20

Now, you can

28:22

get a deal like you could in the

28:24

first half of the year. but it's just

28:26

not as hard work to get a deal. And

28:28

they use property of Invest to

28:30

do that deal because it's obviously I'm busy. So

28:32

it works perfectly for me. So you're interested in

28:34

property of Invest. check it out on

28:36

the Proteal website, and I'm very

28:39

happy. But

28:39

Rob, am I

28:40

alone wolf in this

28:42

endeavor? Am I just a crazy

28:45

individual operating on my own? Or do

28:47

you know any other people doing the same? Well,

28:49

now you're a good company because I'm buying as

28:51

well. I'm also doing a deal through property I haven't

28:53

invested. I've also got another transaction going through

28:56

right now, which is a few weeks ahead. But

28:58

again, this is the first time I've been active this

29:00

year because I had just been put off by how crazy

29:02

everything was, not because it's like, oh my goodness,

29:04

this is a bubble that has to end, but just was

29:06

it's too difficult, it's too hard to operate under

29:08

these conditions. got a couple going

29:10

through. Projeter Dan who's also on this call

29:12

has got one going through. And we asked our

29:14

YouTube community if what was going on was

29:16

making them rethink their decisions.

29:18

And some were. A third said it's put them off investing. Some saying

29:20

it's making them more nervous than they were, but they're still

29:22

doing it, other still carrying on. But the

29:24

other two thirds carry on as normal.

29:26

So, no, you're not alone. I don't think it's just the two

29:28

of us either. I think if you actually peel back the

29:31

headlines and look at what people are actually doing, there's a lot

29:33

of people doing what we are. Maybe we're unusual

29:35

because we actually get excited when everyone

29:37

else is getting nervous and the headlines

29:39

turn bad. But in terms don't

29:41

think we're alone. Now just because we're investing doesn't

29:43

mean you shouldn't, but just because

29:45

the media is scary,

29:47

doesn't mean you shouldn't. should

29:49

look at your long term investment plans and continue

29:53

to make progress towards

29:55

them. We feel at the moment the

29:57

market is in a good place and it's in a good

29:59

place for the next few years

30:02

and now it's easier to operate while so

30:04

many people are scared and it's a great time

30:06

to get yourself a deal. It won't last forever.

30:08

But a bitter turmoil, a

30:10

bit of fear, allows you to

30:12

operate in this market and

30:14

get a better deal than you could offer even a

30:16

couple of months ago. So do

30:18

push those offers. Not everyone will say

30:20

yes, but if you put enough offers out there

30:22

and push it enough, a good deal, maybe

30:25

even a great deal will come your way.

30:27

Now, it's time to hold back to the part of

30:29

the show where we like to give you that little bit extra,

30:31

that little bit more. And with so much going

30:33

on in the world right now, Rob

30:35

and I have been doing more live webinars.

30:37

We normally do one a month. So the good

30:39

news is if you go to propertyhub dot

30:42

net slash webinar, you

30:44

can see when our monthly webinar will

30:46

be and sign up and join us.

30:48

But because of the turmoil and the

30:50

noise and the media playing up,

30:53

over the last few weeks, we've

30:55

decided to do them a little bit more

30:57

regularly. So to find out when our next one

30:59

is, before we go back to our monthly

31:01

format, go to propertyhub

31:03

dot net forward slash webinar and

31:05

join us for our next webinar. I'll be doing a live

31:07

q and a every episode, so we

31:09

get your questions answered. We get to the

31:11

things that are important to you, and we

31:14

have loads and loads of people turn up. So

31:16

it's a great experience. So make sure you join us

31:18

for one of those webinars in the

31:20

near future. Loss has done for today. A

31:22

lot of ground covered. We'll be back again with

31:24

a podcast next week for episode five

31:26

hundred, but you don't have to wait that long. You can

31:28

join us For the recording of that and get involved

31:30

live, that's happening tomorrow, Friday, the

31:32

seventh midday, just make sure that you're

31:34

subscribed to us on YouTube and have got

31:36

notifications on so you can take part in

31:38

that. So hopefully, we'll see you then. And

31:40

if not, we'll see you again next week. Bye

31:42

bye. Bye bye.