1:58

included the

2:00

leader of Syria, Bashar al-Assad,

2:03

who until recently has been something of

2:05

pariah in the Arab world.

2:08

Another guest was President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

2:10

of Turkey, who's long had uneasy

2:13

relations with both MBS and Assad.

2:16

I was in Turkey over the weekend from

2:18

a meeting organised by Chatham House and

2:20

the Koch Group. After the discussions,

2:23

I sat down with Dr. Sannem Vakil of

2:25

Chatham House. I started by asking

2:27

her about that summit of Arab and

2:30

Islamic leaders. Were they really

2:32

as united on Gaza as they seem?

2:35

Well, the optics would suggest they are

2:37

united, but from that summit and

2:39

the statement that emerged along

2:42

with some of the reporting, there is not

2:44

as much unity as there should be.

2:47

Of course, there has been unity

2:49

over the prioritization of humanitarian

2:52

aid, calling for a ceasefire,

2:55

but there are divergences among Arab

2:57

states in particular. Alongside

3:00

Iran, for example, there were calls

3:02

led by Algeria to boycott

3:05

Israel more broadly, impose an

3:07

oil embargo. The Iraqis have

3:10

a particularly interesting stance

3:13

where, because of their close ties with

3:15

Iran, they are also

3:17

being quite critical of

3:19

Israel and also prioritizing

3:22

a ceasefire and humanitarian aid, but we're

3:25

like harsher measures taken, whereas

3:27

you have a block of five Arab states,

3:30

Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE

3:32

and Saudi Arabia, that perhaps

3:34

see themselves as more

3:37

moderate, have direct

3:39

or indirect ties with Israel, and

3:41

hope to play either an immediate

3:44

or long-standing role in helping

3:47

the Palestinians, providing humanitarian

3:49

aid, but also being part of what will be a political

3:51

settlement.

3:52

And how realistic do you think

3:54

those aspirations are? Do you think

3:57

at the moment they're feeling a bit impotent or

3:59

are they just standing on of bad luck waiting

4:01

for their moment?

4:02

I think that they are taking

4:04

their time. They don't want

4:06

to be at the front and center

4:08

of this crisis. Of course, they've

4:11

been called out by their people

4:13

for not having prioritized the Palestinian

4:16

issue. We've seen protests

4:18

across the Arab world in support of

4:20

Palestine and against Israel's

4:23

military campaign in Gaza. So

4:25

I think they're playing a short term

4:27

multilateral game and longer

4:30

term, I think that these countries will

4:32

be very important in incentivizing

4:35

and perhaps even underwriting

4:38

a political settlement. The West is

4:41

not necessarily prioritizing

4:43

this conflict. There's distraction with Ukraine.

4:46

There's elections coming in many countries

4:48

next year. And so I think that many

4:50

Arab states will have a responsibility

4:52

and an opportunity through this crisis

4:55

should they take it. And how

4:58

much or little is it actually a threat

5:00

to them domestically? I was very struck at

5:02

the beginning of the conflict

5:05

when emotions were running high and they're still running

5:07

very high for obvious reasons. The

5:09

Egyptians authorized a demonstration and

5:11

then it sort of spilled into kind

5:13

of having an anti-CC regime

5:16

character to it. So do they feel they're

5:18

starting walking the tightrope?

5:19

Well, of course they're not all in the same

5:22

predicament. I think that the Jordanians

5:24

and the Egyptians are in much more

5:27

of a position where they have

5:30

security concerns. Jordan has

5:32

a very large Palestinian population

5:35

that is rightfully incensed. Queen Rania has

5:38

been advocating in favor of humanitarian

5:40

aid and a ceasefire

5:43

very regularly. And the Egyptians, because

5:45

of their shared border and their long history,

5:47

are also in an uncomfortable position

5:49

nor do they want the Sinai to become

5:51

the new home of Palestinians

5:54

in Gaza. So the protests

5:56

that we have seen have been quite interesting and

5:58

you spoke rightly to the fact that... that Egyptians

6:01

took the opportunity to actually almost thank

6:03

the Palestinians for their right

6:05

to protest. And they very quickly pivoted

6:08

and complained about bread and the economy

6:11

and all of their own challenges. And this is a

6:13

tricky time for Sisi. He's supposedly

6:16

embarking on elections in December and

6:19

he is indeed walking a tight rope as are

6:21

the Jordanians. Broadly the Gulf

6:23

fits have different dynamics.

6:25

Don't have many demonstrations, but... No.

6:26

I mean, there were some protests in

6:28

Bahrain. I think that in the UAE

6:31

and Saudi Arabia, the outpouring

6:33

of anger is very much managed, contained

6:36

on social media, channeled in more,

6:38

let's say, constructive ways to provide

6:41

aid and to express frustration

6:43

in very carefully constructive

6:45

dialogue. They're not breaking ties. The

6:47

Emiratis, they've said at front and center

6:49

normalization will continue.

6:52

But they all see a pragmatism

6:55

in these dynamics that will be important

6:57

to continue regardless of this crisis.

6:59

Yeah.

6:59

So here in Turkey, which

7:02

Erdogan has over his many

7:04

years in power,

7:05

often been very frightened in his condemnations

7:08

of Israel over previous Gaza

7:10

conflict. And it seemed to be

7:12

actually kind of slightly warming to Netanyahu

7:15

and then, hang, this happened and you've

7:17

had huge demonstrations here in Istanbul.

7:20

What role, if any, do you think the Turks played?

7:22

Well, Erdogan played a very interesting

7:24

flip-flop over the past month because

7:27

he was quite cautious. And then he

7:29

clearly took a much more strident

7:32

and critical position of Israel, also withdrawing

7:35

their ambassador and restoring ties

7:37

after the rupture was quite

7:39

difficult, finding the right entry point. So this

7:42

is quite a move. And it comes on

7:44

this backdrop of a broader

7:47

regional diplomacy, everyone's

7:49

normalized ties with each other. So

7:51

the fact that Erdogan has taken this position

7:54

is really reflective of popular

7:56

anger here in Turkey, frustration

7:58

that is longstanding. goes back to

8:01

previous wars, 2009, 2014.

8:04

And we heard a lot of it at this conference,

8:06

though, almost to a man and

8:08

a woman that her participants were saying,

8:11

you know, how can the West

8:12

lecture us on Ukraine and let stuff like

8:15

the Israelis are doing go by? This

8:17

definitely exposes Western

8:19

countries and policymakers to

8:21

criticism of double standards and hypocrisy

8:24

that have long existed but are

8:26

being made worse by a war

8:29

in Ukraine that is wholeheartedly

8:31

defended by the West and what

8:33

is perceived in the Middle East to

8:35

be a green light to Israel to

8:37

kill Palestinians without

8:40

respect for international law

8:43

and human rights. And so that is unleashing

8:45

all sorts of grievances.

8:47

True.

8:48

And another aspect of that

8:51

summit in Riyadh was Iran, the

8:53

president of Iran actually being escorted in

8:55

by Mohammed bin Salman. What are you

8:57

made of that?

8:59

Really rather extraordinary. I was

9:01

in Riyadh in mid-October and

9:04

there was some speculation. In

9:06

meetings I had, you know, the Saudi

9:08

Iranian rapprochement is new. It's

9:11

only a number of months old. And I was

9:13

told that the ball is in Iran's court.

9:16

It was Ra'is' turn to reciprocate

9:18

because Saudi Arabia's foreign minister

9:20

Faisal bin Farhan had been to Tehran already.

9:23

And I was surprised that the

9:25

opportunity came so quickly. It really speaks

9:27

to, I think, Iran's pragmatism right now, recognizing

9:30

that after many years

9:33

of very tense and difficult ties with

9:35

the Gulf states and particularly Saudi Arabia,

9:38

I think they acknowledged that these

9:40

diplomatic ties are fragile and

9:42

it's important to keep them going despite

9:45

all of the concerns in the region. So

9:48

I think it was the perfect opportunity for

9:50

Ra'is the president of Iran to

9:52

come to Riyadh because it was under

9:55

the cover of these double summits. He

9:57

had some pomp and circumstance, but

9:59

it wasn't that. the full state visit and

10:01

they could show solidarity

10:04

on humanitarian issues, where of

10:06

course Iran plays a broader incendiary

10:08

role in supporting Hamas and other groups

10:11

that could destabilize the region further.

10:13

Yeah,

10:13

and speaking into that

10:15

a bit, there was a very interesting article in the FT

10:17

by my colleague Natima based in Tehran saying

10:19

that the reaction of the Iranian public

10:22

was rather different to this, partly because of their hostility

10:25

of quite a lot of them to their own regime and the way they

10:27

feel their regime has instrumentalized

10:29

the Palestinian nation. Is that something you see as well?

10:31

Absolutely. Natima is a fantastic

10:34

correspondent and I think she has a

10:36

really unique perspective in reflecting

10:38

what is taking place in Iran. Iranians

10:41

have long been very frustrated

10:43

that the regime doesn't reflect

10:46

or respect their views on

10:48

foreign policy. There has been a sort of long-standing

10:51

chant that Iranians use

10:53

in protest that they say, not Gaza, not

10:55

Lebanon, I give my life for Iran.

10:58

And it really speaks to the decades-long

11:00

frustration of Iranian resources

11:02

being channeled abroad rather than spent

11:05

back home. So that distance

11:07

between the Iranian street,

11:10

if you will, and the regime I think is quite

11:12

profound. And of course in

11:14

the backdrop of Iran's protests

11:16

of last year after the death of

11:18

the young Massa Ashina Amini, Iranians

11:21

are looking for other alternative

11:24

avenues to distance themselves

11:26

from the regime that really

11:29

is holding steadfast against popular

11:32

frustration. They're not showing any willingness

11:34

to reform anywhere and it creeps

11:37

out in all sorts of ways.

11:38

Yeah, and that does actually

11:40

raise an interesting question to me because

11:43

the question of public pose, why are you

11:45

pouring all these resources into Gaza, Lebanon,

11:48

etc. is the valid one. It's a long-standing

11:50

Iranian policy, so one kind of takes it for granted.

11:52

But what is Iran's

11:55

stake in being the center, the axis of resistance,

11:57

as they call it?

11:59

It's a really... It's a tricky issue

12:01

to explain simply,

12:02

so let me try to make it simple.

12:05

But apologies if my answer is longer

12:07

than you'd like. It definitely goes

12:09

back to the Iranian Revolution,

12:12

the ideological nature of the revolution

12:14

being very anti-American, and

12:17

many of the regime's leaders seeing the

12:19

role of the United States and by extension Israel's

12:22

presence in the region as being connected

12:24

to imperialism and colonialism.

12:27

So there is that ideological

12:29

worldview hanging there. And then

12:31

a second layer emerges from Iran's

12:33

experience during the Iran-Iraq

12:36

War. It felt very much surrounded

12:39

and isolated by its neighbors,

12:41

and of course the West sort of piled in and supported

12:44

Saddam Hussein in this eight-year-long

12:46

war. And through that

12:48

experience, they came out having

12:50

survived and the revolution

12:53

relatively consolidated, they

12:55

began to develop relations

12:58

with non-state actors, recognizing

13:01

that there weren't too many states in the Middle East

13:03

that were feeling comfortable with the Islamic Republic

13:05

and its radical Islamic political

13:08

system. And so they strengthened their

13:10

ties and nurtured their ties, first

13:12

with Lebanon's Hezbollah group, and

13:15

over four decades they found opportunities

13:18

in weak states to also

13:21

develop relations with political

13:23

groups, military groups. And

13:25

it turns out over the years, these

13:28

sort of hodgepodge of groups in multiple countries

13:30

ranging from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq,

13:33

the Palestinian territories, and Yemen have

13:35

broadly come together as the axis of

13:37

resistance. And they're not necessarily

13:40

ideologically connected by

13:42

religious space, but they're ideologically

13:44

connected in their opposition to Israel and

13:46

the role of the United States in the

13:48

West. And it helps protect Iran,

13:51

the presence of these groups around

13:53

Israel and near American military

13:56

bases in the region, they help protect

13:59

Iran from being... directly attacked

14:01

within Iran and that has been known

14:03

as Iran's forward defense strategy.

14:06

And is that Iran's

14:08

forward defense strategy partly what

14:10

was provoking or at least

14:12

persuading the Gulf states to

14:14

go with the Abraham Accord, the Bahrain,

14:17

the UAE, and with a big question

14:19

until all this blew up that Saudi seemed

14:21

to be on the brink of also normalizing

14:23

relations? How much of that was

14:25

about Iran?

14:26

Well certainly the Iran

14:28

security question is

14:30

the one that hangs as a thread

14:32

through all of these conflicts including the Palestinian

14:35

one and it was a driver of normalization

14:38

for the Bahrainis and the Emiratis

14:41

with Israel. But there's an element

14:43

to that that is broader and it's tied

14:45

to the role of the US in the

14:47

Middle East and there's been a prevailing

14:50

view among American partners

14:53

in the region that the US is de-prioritizing

14:55

the Middle East, focusing on its domestic

14:58

dynamics and issues, focusing

15:00

on China and that has left

15:03

a security vacuum. And so

15:05

these countries have been looking to solidify

15:08

their relations with the US and see relations

15:10

with Israel as the perfect way

15:12

to do that. Right

15:14

and

15:15

one of the other interesting guests

15:17

at this conference in Riyadh was President Assad

15:19

of Syria and there's a certain irony in him

15:22

signing up to a denunciation of bombing

15:24

and human rights abuses but he

15:26

was there. Does that signal

15:28

that he's not made it? He's safe,

15:30

he's back in the phone.

15:31

I think on this surface yes

15:33

it looks like Assad is here to stay,

15:36

he has survived the isolation

15:39

and the efforts at unseating him but

15:42

I think his road back and the

15:44

sort of rehabilitation of Bashar al-Assad

15:46

isn't

15:47

going to be warm

15:49

and result in investment

15:51

in Syria or strengthened

15:53

by lateral ties across the

15:56

Arab world. I think that this outreach

15:58

to Bashar al-Assad was really led by by the UAE,

16:01

again, seeing that the

16:03

severing of ties across the region that

16:05

was not just with Syria, but also with Iran,

16:08

there was a period of tension with Turkey. No

16:11

direct dialogue worked against Emirati

16:13

interests. And so they sort of paved

16:15

the way at reconciliation,

16:18

and it's underpinned by pragmatism

16:20

and security vacuum

16:23

and looking to directly try to problem

16:25

solve some of the challenges, which include

16:28

also the export of captagon,

16:30

the drug being produced in

16:32

Syria and being used to bankroll the Assad

16:35

regime. And that has posed a sort of

16:37

domestic challenge across many borders.

16:39

Exactly. And ultimately

16:41

thinking that over time through greater

16:44

investment, you know, perhaps

16:47

there could be a more balanced

16:49

relationship with Syria that could serve

16:52

Gulf interests. And maybe, you know, quite

16:54

reductively, people have also thought

16:56

that balanced relations would

16:58

help Bashar al-Assad also

17:00

diversify his relations away

17:03

from Iran and Russia and other countries

17:05

that are involved. An

17:06

asked question on the Gaza conflict itself,

17:08

which has framed, you know, so much of these discussions.

17:11

I should say we're talking on a Saturday. This

17:13

won't go out until a Thursday. And I hesitate

17:16

because we always feel to be a day

17:18

away and a hour away from another

17:20

really appalling thing happening that could reframe

17:22

the whole conflict. But with that proviso,

17:25

do you have a sense

17:27

that the West misgivings

17:30

about what Israel is doing, which have always been

17:32

there, I think, in the background, even though I don't think that

17:34

many people here in Turkey would necessarily accept

17:36

that, but they're becoming more open

17:39

and that you hear sometimes people saying Israel's

17:41

window is closing in Gaza.

17:44

Is that inaccurate or do you think actually, given

17:47

Israel, how enraged Israel

17:49

is, that that's going to keep going for quite a while?

17:51

To be very honest, Gideon, I think it's really

17:53

hard to say. I hope the window

17:55

is closing because I really fear

17:57

that too many lives have been lost at this

18:00

point and I think that ordinary

18:02

Palestinians shouldn't be paying this price.

18:05

But I do very much worry, I know that

18:07

the window is closing from the West perspective,

18:10

but I very much worry that in this climate

18:12

in Israel today, which is extraordinarily

18:16

defensive, that they will continue

18:18

regardless and radicalize. And

18:20

it is also taking place in the context

18:22

of increasing violence in the West Bank

18:25

and over 100 people have died

18:27

over there. At the same time, Prime

18:30

Minister Netanyahu is under huge pressure,

18:32

continuing the war, I mean, sorry

18:34

to sound conspiratorial, but continuing

18:37

the war is a sort of lifeline

18:39

to his political

18:39

survival. I think that sounds very sory in the call.

18:42

The same thought has occurred to me that

18:45

the day the war ends, the inquest in Israel

18:47

begins and the beginning of Netanyahu's political

18:49

career.

18:49

Yes. And on Saturday, there

18:52

will be protests in Israel calling

18:54

for Netanyahu's. And

18:56

if you will, I think right now,

18:59

if he doesn't get these hostages released, then

19:01

we've heard much reporting that a deal

19:03

is on the table. So why these

19:05

poor individuals haven't been released is beyond

19:08

me. So Western pressure

19:10

doesn't necessarily guarantee a sort

19:12

of cease and desist on the Israeli side.

19:15

My biggest concern is that Israeli

19:17

society and the Israeli political

19:20

leadership is not ready to cease

19:22

and desist because of the horrors of October 7th,

19:24

but also because of the failures on their

19:26

end of October 7th and a whole strategy

19:29

that is effectively collapsed. And that is

19:31

clear on the Palestinian side, but more broadly,

19:33

part of the discussion that they are not having

19:36

that they will also have is that the Iran strategy

19:38

has also failed. So the two pillars, Iran

19:40

and Palestine, are collapsing and

19:42

they need a whole new plan going forward. That

19:50

was Sannam Vakil, director of the Middle East program

19:53

at Chatham House in London, ending

19:55

this edition of the Rachman Review. Please

19:57

join me again next week.

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