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Full terms at mintmobile.com. Hello

0:34

and welcome to the Rachman Review. I'm Henry

0:36

Mance. Chief Features Ricer at the Financial Times.

0:38

And I'm standing in this week for Gideon

0:41

while he's on holiday. This

0:43

week's podcast is about Israel and what's

0:45

really going on as the government faces

0:47

mounting international pressure over civilian casualties in

0:49

Gaza. My guest is

0:51

James Schotter, the FTE's correspondent in Jerusalem, who's

0:53

been covering the events of the past five

0:56

months. How is

0:58

the Gaza conflict reshaping Israel's politics?

1:00

And does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

1:02

the great survivor of Israeli politics,

1:05

have a way to cling on to power? In

1:14

Israel at the moment, there is really a

1:16

battle for the soul of the Israeli nation

1:19

between patriotism on

1:21

the one side and

1:23

ideas of Jewish supremacy on the

1:26

other side. That was the

1:28

historian Yuval Noah Harari talking to Sky

1:30

News last week about the divisions that

1:32

have opened up in Israel's political landscape.

1:34

And now there is a huge titanic

1:37

struggle within Israel

1:39

between these two forces. And this

1:42

is my greatest privilege. It's

1:44

not from Hamas. It's not from Hezbollah. It's

1:47

not from Iran. It's from

1:49

this inner struggle that we

1:51

might lose this struggle. Let's

1:54

start by taking a step back. A

1:56

few days after the Hamas attacks on October the

1:58

7th, Benjamin Netanyahu set

2:00

up a five-man cross-party war cabinet

2:03

bringing his arch-rival and former defense minister

2:05

Benny Gantz back into government. Splits

2:08

in that cabinet have been clear ever since, but

2:10

they came to the fore this week when

2:13

Gantz visited Washington to meet senior figures in

2:15

the Biden administration. Gantz's

2:17

trip infuriated Netanyahu who had been stonewalling

2:19

the US's demands for more aid and

2:22

more restraint, but it played into

2:24

hopes in the West that Gantz, who is

2:26

currently leading an opinion polls, would oversee a

2:28

more sober military response than Netanyahu, who

2:31

is dependent on far-right parties. James

2:33

Schoetter, FT Jerusalem correspondent, welcome to the

2:35

podcast. Thank you very much. Now,

2:38

can you explain to us how

2:40

Gantz and Netanyahu disagree over the

2:42

Gaza war? Sure. So

2:45

on the highest level, Gantz has been

2:47

just as insistent as Netanyahu that the

2:49

war can only end when Hamas is

2:52

completely destroyed, but beneath that there's

2:54

been differences on a couple of things. One of

2:56

the most important ones is the question of how to

2:59

bring back the hostages that Hamas still holds in Gaza.

3:01

Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted

3:03

that only overwhelming military

3:06

force would induce Hamas to

3:08

release them, whereas Gantz and his ally, Gaddy

3:10

Eisenkop, who joined the war cabinet with him

3:12

just after the start of the war, have

3:14

been arguing for the last couple of months

3:16

that this approach has reached its limits and

3:19

that there has to be a diplomatic attempt

3:21

to get them home. So that's one thing.

3:24

And the second thing is the

3:26

question of what happens once the war is over. Netanyahu

3:28

has repeatedly put off the discussion

3:30

of the day after in Gaza, partly

3:32

because it's politically difficult for him within

3:34

his coalition, whereas Gantz has been pushing

3:36

for some sort of planning for the

3:39

day after. I think there's also a

3:41

sense that in the negotiations

3:43

about resolving the conflict, he would likely

3:45

be a more emollient interlocutor

3:48

for the Palestinians and the international community

3:50

than Netanyahu. Yeah. And

3:52

we heard at the beginning of this podcast,

3:54

Yuval Noah Harari, talking about patriotism

3:56

versus Jewish supremacy and really saying

3:58

that the internal divisions in Israel

4:01

worried him more than almost the

4:03

external threats, whether from Hamas or

4:05

from Iran. Is that

4:07

how it feels? These divisions within Israeli politics,

4:09

do they go very deep at the moment?

4:12

Yeah, I mean, I think since the

4:14

start of the war, and given how

4:16

deep the shock was that Hamas's attack

4:18

caused, I think at the moment, most

4:20

people in Israel are more concerned about

4:23

the external threats. You know, the fighting with

4:26

Hamas is now contained in Gaza, but

4:28

the trauma of the seven is very

4:30

alive in the Israeli public sphere. And

4:32

there's also fears about the possibility of

4:34

the conflict escalating to include a war

4:36

with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But of course,

4:38

before the war, there were

4:40

deep divisions in Israeli society between

4:43

more religious parts of society and the more liberal,

4:46

more secular parts of society over what sort of

4:48

a state Israel should be. And those haven't been

4:50

resolved. And I think the big question

4:52

for the time after the war is at what point those

4:55

resurfaced. So I think in the long term, those divisions

4:57

are absolutely still there. Many

4:59

listeners who've been following Israeli politics will

5:01

remember the huge street protests against Netanyahu.

5:04

They remember him clinging on despite those. And

5:06

then in the aftermath of October the 7th, he

5:08

did seem to suffer this sharp drop in

5:10

popularity, people blaming him for the attack, you

5:12

know, as the commander in chief for not

5:14

stopping it. Can you bring us up to speed

5:17

on what the position is now? Has he

5:19

in any way recovered the popularity that he

5:21

might have had partly by overseeing

5:23

this long military conflict, which many Israelis

5:25

seem in favor of? No, he hasn't

5:27

is the short answer. So as you

5:29

said, there was this really bitter fight

5:32

in Israel before October the 7th over

5:34

Netanyahu's government's plans to weaken the

5:36

judiciary, which had already seen some of

5:38

the support that they had when they

5:40

won the election in the preceding December,

5:42

Ebb. And then obviously after

5:44

October the 7th, it knows by further. So if

5:47

you look at the polling data, the

5:49

last few polls before October the 7th suggested

5:51

that if an exit has been held then

5:53

Netanyahu's coalition would have got about 54 or

5:55

55 seats in

5:57

the Knesset, which has 120 seats. short

6:00

of the majority and short of the

6:02

64 that Netanyahu's coalition had in the

6:04

wake of the election. After

6:06

October 7, it really created further

6:09

and went as low as 42 or 43 seats.

6:13

That is obviously because Israelis blame, as

6:15

you said, Netanyahu for the failures that

6:17

led to October 7, both the

6:20

short-term intelligence failures and the longer-term

6:22

strategic failures. He was the guy

6:24

who pushed this strategy of triggering

6:27

Hamas as a way of weakening the

6:29

Palestinian Authority and undermining the chances of

6:31

a Palestinian state ever being created. That

6:35

strategy obviously hopefully failed as October

6:37

7 showed. There

6:40

was definitely an intense backlash against him

6:42

in the wake of the war. That

6:44

hasn't really eased much since then. There

6:46

was a poll earlier this week which

6:48

put Netanyahu's coalition on 47 seats. It's

6:50

marginally above where it was in

6:52

the immediate aftermath of October 7, but still far

6:54

away from being able to form the government of

6:56

the next elections and way behind

6:59

the opposition parties that formed the previous government,

7:01

which in the same poll that Netanyahu had

7:04

and Netanyahu's coalition had 47, they had 69. At

7:07

the moment, the war hasn't boosted his popularity

7:09

at all. We have this position

7:11

where Gantz is not on

7:13

board with some of the handling of the war

7:16

where he's leading in opinion polls. How's

7:19

he handled that? Has he been trying

7:22

to steer a course between being loyal

7:24

to Netanyahu and sort of carving himself

7:26

out as distinct? Yes,

7:29

as you said, the immediate aftermath

7:31

of Hamas's attack on October 7,

7:33

he basically crossed the political divide

7:35

and joined this five-man war cabinet

7:37

that's basically overseen the war. In

7:40

the early weeks of the war, there was this

7:43

relatively brief period where political

7:45

fights were put on hold and

7:47

there was a semblance of unity.

7:50

That has begun to fray in

7:52

January. Isengott, who's one of Gantz's

7:55

closest allies, gave an interview in which he declined to

7:57

say that he trusted Netanyahu in which he was a

7:59

leader. She said that elections should be held within

8:02

months because the public have lost faith. In

8:04

the government, although Gantz has been less

8:06

outspoken, he's also criticized

8:09

Netanyahu on various occasions. One

8:11

being when Netanyahu publicly criticized security, chiefs

8:13

of the failures of October 7th, Gantz

8:15

demolished him after that. And obviously

8:17

this latest trip to the US, which wasn't

8:20

sanctioned by Netanyahu and which has sparked a

8:22

lot of criticism from Netanyahu's allies, here

8:24

is the latest sign of these divisions,

8:27

and as you say, of Gantz's attempt

8:29

to sort of position himself as an

8:31

alternative to Netanyahu. I mean, another issue

8:33

that divides Gantz and Netanyahu is the

8:35

question of whether the ultra-orthodox population in

8:38

Israel should perform military service.

8:41

And that is potentially an issue that could

8:43

collapse the government, could make this little

8:46

unhappy marriage of convenience intolerable. I

8:48

mean, it's a really difficult question

8:50

for Netanyahu's coalition. His coalition is

8:53

basically his liquid party plus two

8:55

ultra-orthodox parties and then

8:57

two extreme-right parties. And

8:59

within that, there is a real spectrum of views

9:01

on the question of this exemption. So

9:03

the ultra-orthodox parties are obviously in favor and Netanyahu

9:05

needs them for his coalition, but

9:07

other members of his coalition, such as Defense

9:10

Minister Yauaf Galant, are in favor of increasing

9:12

the number of Faradee who serve in the

9:14

military. It's an issue that's brought

9:16

down coalitions in the past, and

9:19

it definitely has the potential to provoke

9:21

deep splits in this coalition as well.

9:24

Whether there's a way for the government to take

9:27

the can down the road as they've done in the past, or

9:29

whether they really do have to deal with it by the

9:31

end of its months, as the Supreme Court's ordered them to

9:33

do, it's hard to say at this point, but if they

9:35

do have to deal with it this month, then it definitely

9:37

has the potential to be a big showdown between these two

9:39

very different camps. Yeah, and people

9:42

will know that Israeli Jewish men are faced

9:44

with very long military service by international standard,

9:46

two years, eight months, women's time for two

9:48

years. I mean, is the urgency

9:50

around this, or is the pressure on this

9:52

really a question of principle, it's not that

9:54

Israel desperately needs these soldiers to fight

9:56

in Gaza, or indeed to be on the northern border,

9:58

it's a question of... What is the principle

10:01

of this nation? Is it one where people

10:03

are equal in front of the law, or where

10:05

you have religious communities with quite large exemptions? No,

10:08

I think it's both. At the moment, obviously,

10:10

at the time of war, it is a

10:12

much more personal question than in times of

10:14

peace. And the military has recently called for

10:17

their period during which Israelis do reserve duty

10:19

to be extended. So, you know, there's clearly

10:21

pressure on the Israeli military that there wouldn't

10:23

be in peacetime. But obviously, as you said,

10:26

it's also a question of equal rights. It's

10:29

sort of a lightning rod issue

10:31

for frustration within secular Israeli society

10:33

about the position that the Haredi

10:35

enjoy, and the extent to which

10:37

they're able to live a lifestyle that doesn't

10:39

expose them to the same burdens as secular

10:41

Israelis who go to the military, basically as

10:43

a matter of course. And looking

10:46

at this from Europe, from the point of

10:48

view of European governments, and I think the

10:50

US as well, Netanyahu has proved a very

10:52

difficult person to work with over the last

10:54

few months. They felt that their various calls

10:56

for more aid to go into Gaza, or

10:58

for restraint to be shown, or a plan

11:00

for Gaza's future, you know, have fallen on

11:02

very deaf ears. And they

11:04

would presumably welcome the opportunity to work

11:06

with almost anyone on the more

11:09

moderate side of Israeli politics. And I

11:11

suppose for Western public speaking at this,

11:13

they might say, well, why doesn't Gantz

11:15

simply look for an opportunity in the next few

11:17

weeks or months to collapse the war cabinet, and

11:20

to offer perhaps a more pragmatic vision

11:22

of where Israel goes now, and of

11:24

how to handle this conflict? Is he

11:26

simply looking for the best possible

11:28

time to do that? Is there

11:31

any doubt in observers' minds that Gantz's preferred

11:33

option would be to topple Netanyahu, whether that

11:35

requires an election or not? Yes, I think

11:37

when Gantz and Eisenkot joined the war cabinet,

11:40

they made clear that they were just doing

11:42

so for the duration of the war. And

11:45

the expectation on all sides

11:48

of the political spectrum is that as soon as

11:50

the war is over, they will jump

11:52

ship, and that will be the sort of starting

11:54

gun for an election campaign. I mean, it wouldn't

11:56

automatically trigger an election, because Netanyahu's coalition would still

11:59

have the 16th. for seats and partner that

12:01

it had before, it would definitely be seen as

12:03

the point at which everyone else begins gearing up

12:05

for an election. I don't think

12:07

Gantz would do that while the war's going

12:09

on because it would leave him open to

12:11

accusations that he was playing politics at a

12:13

time when Israeli soldiers were fighting and dying.

12:15

So I think he will wait until the

12:17

war ends, but then obviously begs the question,

12:19

how does the war end? If

12:21

it doesn't end from one day to the next with

12:24

some sort of big agreement, but instead sort of peters

12:26

out from high intensity conflict to low intensity conflict to

12:28

sort of Israeli raids to Gaza, at

12:30

what point does he draw the line? But I think

12:33

at some point he and I should probably leave

12:35

the war cabinets. And I think the expectation in

12:37

the Israeli political spectrum is that that will be

12:40

at some point this year so that the government

12:42

won't drag out its mandate

12:44

until 2026, which is the time that

12:46

formally the next elections would be due.

12:49

Right, and I guess the question is how

12:51

cynical observers should be here, but from what

12:53

you've said, Nesigna, who has a pretty clear

12:55

political incentive not to negotiate

12:57

a settlement to this war, not to

12:59

obey the demands for a

13:01

temporary or indeed a permanent ceasefire, which coming

13:04

out of the US and Europe, partly because

13:06

that will give his rivals an opportunity to

13:08

trigger an election. So, you know, he's

13:10

74. In the ordinary political course

13:12

of things, one might expect him to step

13:14

down at some point, but we see that

13:16

he's got this incentive not least to avoid

13:18

corruption allegations. Yeah, I mean,

13:21

he would obviously deny that he's drinking down

13:23

the war to avoid the corruption allegations which

13:25

he's facing, but it's certainly an accusation

13:27

that his critics level at him, just as they

13:29

accused him of trying to weaken the judiciary during

13:31

the battle last year as a means of dealing

13:34

with his legal problems, which of course he also

13:36

denied. But there is obviously a sense

13:38

among Israelis and that Nesigna is not averse

13:40

to letting personal political calculations influence his policy.

13:42

I mean, there was a poll earlier this

13:44

week, which found that, you know,

13:46

plurality of Israelis think that the way

13:48

he's maneuvering around the hostage is

13:51

motivated by political considerations rather

13:53

than substantive issues. But I think

13:56

there is a broad consensus in Israel's

13:58

political class of the war. has

14:00

to go on until Hamas is

14:02

defeated. So even if you don't want

14:04

to be cynical, I think the expectation

14:06

of the war will go on until

14:08

Israel can claim some sort of military

14:10

victory as probably well-founded. That poll you

14:12

mentioned is interesting, right? Because it shows

14:14

that Israelis, although they seem heavily in

14:16

favor of the war, they

14:19

understand that the person who's overseeing that

14:21

war may have very self-interested motives for

14:23

the way in which he's prosecuting it.

14:26

Yes, I mean, that's been an accusation

14:28

that's been leveled at Netanyahu for a

14:30

while, particularly during the last five years,

14:32

where the political deadlock in Israel

14:34

has basically revolved around questions of whether

14:36

Netanyahu is always not fit to continue

14:39

to lead the country. And I mean,

14:41

in terms of stringing out the war,

14:43

or I think as Netanyahu would put

14:45

it, pushing for total victory, I mean,

14:48

what are the prospects for

14:50

an expansion of the conflict in the

14:52

north with Hezbollah? If one were

14:54

looking for self-interested motives, that would enable Netanyahu

14:56

to continue a good deal longer in power.

14:59

Yeah, I mean, clearly if the conflict does expand

15:01

to a war with Hezbollah as well, then that

15:04

would be a much, much bigger scale than what

15:06

we're seeing at the moment. I mean, Hezbollah is

15:08

one of the world's best armed

15:10

non-state actors, and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

15:12

would be on a totally different scale from everything

15:14

we've seen before. I think the

15:16

question of whether that happens or not is still

15:19

up in the air. There's a big diplomatic push

15:21

being led by the US to try

15:23

and find a diplomatic solution, but Israel

15:26

has been totally adamant that

15:28

in the wake of Hamas's attack in

15:30

the south, there are fears in Israel

15:32

that Hezbollah could do something similar in

15:35

the north, and Israel is totally adamant

15:37

that they're gonna do everything they can

15:39

to make that impossible, and that requires

15:42

Hezbollah to withdraw from the immediate surroundings

15:44

of the Israeli border. This

15:47

US diplomatic push is trying to find a

15:49

way to persuade them to do that, maybe

15:51

in exchange for, maybe even to demarcate the

15:53

Israeli-Lebanese border, or maybe some economic carrots, but

15:56

whether or not that's achievable is hard to say

15:58

at this stage, but not just Netanyahu. And now, you

16:00

know, also other members of the

16:02

war cabinet, like Yoav Galantz, his defense minister,

16:04

and indeed Gantz actually have been clear that

16:06

if Israel can't achieve its goals on the

16:09

northern border diplomatically, then it's prepared to take

16:11

military action. And yeah, that would obviously be

16:13

a far, far bigger conflict than anything we've

16:15

seen so far. I mean,

16:17

there's huge frustration internationally. The Western governments are, I

16:20

think, hugely frustrated that they haven't been

16:22

able to exert more influence over the

16:24

Israeli government since October. I

16:26

think one of the hopes was that

16:28

the families of the hostages would also

16:31

act as a moderating pressure on Netanyahu,

16:33

that they would be a very powerful

16:35

voice for negotiation with Hamas that would

16:38

ultimately protect civilian lives. How

16:40

is that playing out in Israel? Is the pressure

16:42

from the families of hostages being held by Hamas,

16:44

is that telling on Netanyahu at all? I

16:47

mean, the pressure is definitely growing and the

16:49

hostage families are very organized and their protests

16:51

have become more and more forceful, but it

16:53

hasn't really had an impact on Netanyahu. His

16:55

view throughout the conflict has been that the

16:58

only way to bring the other hostages who

17:00

are still in Gaza home is by applying

17:02

overwhelming military force to Hamas to force them

17:04

to release them. And he has stuck to

17:06

that despite the pressure from the hostage families.

17:08

And as things stand at the moment, it

17:11

doesn't really look like that's going to change.

17:13

And if we look into the medium term,

17:15

imagining, for example, a more moderate figure, albeit

17:17

one on the right of Israeli politics,

17:19

such as Gantz, takes over in Israel,

17:22

does that give any cause to believe

17:24

that the two state solution is workable

17:26

over the medium or indeed long term?

17:29

I think at the moment, if

17:31

you could pose a very little appetite in Israel

17:33

for a two state solution, Netanyahu

17:35

has made clear that he's opposed to this.

17:38

And I think you can see that he's

17:40

already drawing up the battle lines to fight

17:42

the next election on a debate

17:44

about a Palestinian state. And he's going to

17:46

portray himself as the only person

17:48

who can prevent it. And he's going to try

17:51

and portray Benny Gantz as someone who would be

17:53

in favor of creating it. And

17:55

there's no doubt that Benny Gantz would

17:57

probably be a more comfortable partner for

18:00

international community when it comes to

18:02

this question. But what exactly he would be prepared

18:04

to do is also hard to

18:07

say. I mean, the party has spoken of support

18:09

for two entities, but what

18:11

he means by that is not really clear.

18:13

And the extent to which his idea of

18:15

a Palestinian entity would overlap with Palestinian ambitions

18:17

for a state is also quite hard to

18:19

say. And I think that's not by accident.

18:21

I think at the moment his strategy is

18:24

to be as non-committal as possible until he's

18:26

actually forced to be more specific in an

18:28

election campaign. It is probably fair to say

18:30

that he would be a more congenial partner

18:32

than Netanyahu. CNN journalist Parid Zakaria gave a

18:34

pretty impassioned monologue about the conflict a few

18:36

days ago. And he said, and I'm going

18:38

to quote a little bit, he said, Israel is in trauma. And

18:41

as a result, many Israelis are sanctioning policies

18:43

that they will regret deeply. I

18:45

thought those were pretty powerful words. And

18:47

I think one could possibly argue that's too

18:50

strong. And maybe history, even quite recent history,

18:52

suggests that when public moods do turn, it

18:54

takes several years for them to do so.

18:56

So I was thinking about the US opinion

18:58

turning against the war in Iraq. That took

19:00

three or four years. The UK

19:02

public has turned against Brexit, but it wasn't

19:05

immediate regret. And I wonder

19:07

what do you think the possibility is that in

19:09

a few years' time, the Israeli

19:11

public will look back on the response

19:14

to the Hamas attacks, and

19:16

perhaps even agree with some of the international

19:18

criticism that there is now that it's gone

19:20

over the top, that it's actually

19:22

not in the long-term interests of

19:24

Israel to respond so forcefully and

19:26

with such a great deal of

19:28

civilian loss of life? It's

19:31

a good question. I think at the moment,

19:33

Israel is still really in deep trauma. And

19:35

it's hard to overstate what a shock October

19:37

the 7th was for Israel. I mean, this

19:39

is the country that was found

19:41

in the wake of the Holocaust on the notion

19:43

that it would provide a safe haven for Jews

19:45

from persecution. And so to see that mission

19:48

fail so catastrophically on October

19:50

the 7th has left Israelis

19:52

really deeply shaken. And

19:54

as a result, there's this very widespread

19:56

support for the war, Even

19:59

if some people acknowledge. The of destroying amassed

20:01

a to be is not realistic. By

20:03

a sudden the a very unbending desire

20:05

to continue until is no question of

20:07

an attack like okay this athens ever

20:09

happening again. I think be about

20:12

financing this. Worth mentioning if we try to

20:14

bridge the gap between how things look in

20:16

his own healthy clip from abroad. is that

20:18

the intense human suffering in Gaza that you

20:21

with I too bad he features in the

20:23

Israeli media and get people here not confronted

20:25

with the level of awful destruction and death

20:27

that the international community has seeing Gaza. Said.

20:30

Has Autism he has set take into account when it's

20:32

on understand the as eighty maids I think it the

20:34

short term as varied as a chance of that changing

20:37

in the longer term. Yeah it's hard to say but

20:39

I think is he said with us in September eleventh

20:41

with you can't make Them and he thinks he can

20:43

read on time and I think the trauma in Israel

20:45

is so deep that for the me to shift in

20:48

a significant ways when he isn't use me as a

20:50

way. That

20:55

was the same sort of me from to and

20:57

that's it for this week. Please

21:00

join me again next week for another edition

21:02

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