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Sean Lay with your weekly deep dive

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into a story that's making news and

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changing lives. And this week, Senegal's

1:02

leader once declared the president cannot extend

1:04

his term of office, not even by

1:06

one day. So

1:09

why does Macquarie Salle now seem to be doing

1:11

just that? The West African country

1:13

has been plunged into chaos by his

1:15

recent decision to delay for months the

1:18

election of his successor. His

1:20

reason, a dispute over the eligibility

1:22

of candidates. As far

1:24

as I am concerned, my solemn

1:26

pledge not to run in the presidential

1:29

election remains unchanged. I

1:37

will facilitate an open national

1:40

dialogue which will ensure free,

1:42

transparent and inclusive

1:44

elections. Which will now

1:46

take place in December, not this month.

1:49

Senegalese people seem unconvinced by the

1:51

president's justification, especially the young.

1:55

60% of the population are under 25 years of age.

1:58

Many could be heard chanting. Aki Sal

2:00

is a dictator as they took to the

2:02

streets. So

2:30

say the politicians declaring

2:32

the president's action unconstitutional.

3:00

How much is this political instability affecting

3:02

an economy struggling to employ its

3:04

protesting young?

3:17

On the one hand you could find nice economic

3:19

figures saying that the economy is going well but

3:22

on the other hand you will see that for most of

3:24

the people they do not see

3:26

prosperity and so they are

3:28

trying to move from the country

3:30

to go to Europe, to the

3:32

US etc. They're not

3:35

hanging around but will Aki Sal, his

3:37

presidential term expires on April 2nd. Will

3:40

he leave office that day just as the

3:43

constitution insists he should? Senegal

3:45

is the only West African country

3:47

never to have experienced a coup

3:49

or should that be was the

3:51

only country? For

3:55

the next hour we're going to explore not

3:57

just the crisis in Senegal but what it

4:00

for a region of Africa where

4:02

democracy appears to be in retreat.

4:04

Our guides on the Real Story

4:06

panel are Borsotal, a freelance journalist

4:09

based in the Senegalese capital, Dhaka,

4:11

recipient of the Cheavings Scholar from

4:13

the University of Glasgow and member

4:15

of the International Women's Media Foundation,

4:18

Paul Melley, consulting fellow for the

4:20

International Affairs Think Tank Chatham House,

4:22

a journalist specialising on development politics

4:24

and business issues in Francophone Africa.

4:26

He joins me here in the

4:28

studio and Anu Adwe, the West

4:30

Africa correspondent for the Financial Times,

4:33

joins us from Lagos. A warm welcome

4:35

to all of you. Before we talk

4:38

about this month's political turmoil, let's describe

4:40

the place itself. Senegal in West Africa

4:42

is a coastal country with Mauritania, Mali,

4:44

Guinea and Guinea-Bissau as its

4:46

neighbours. Borsotal in the capital, Dhaka.

4:49

Senegal is often touted as an

4:51

exemplar democracy in West Africa. Can

4:53

you paint a bit of a

4:55

picture for us of how the

4:57

political culture and that reputation has

4:59

evolved? This country gained independence from

5:01

France, didn't it, in 1960? What's happened

5:04

after that? After that, Senegal

5:06

counts 40 years of state

5:09

power for the Socialist Party until

5:11

2000, when Abdul

5:13

Ayyad came with a new coalition.

5:15

He's been leading for the past 20

5:17

years prior to 2000 called

5:21

SOPI, meaning change. From

5:23

that period, out of the four

5:25

presidents that the country counts, Abdul

5:28

Ayyad and Maki Sal, each pledged

5:30

to respect term limits of

5:33

no more than two consecutive terms

5:35

as a state leader. And that

5:37

comes from article 27 of

5:40

the Constitution and both

5:42

presidents endorsed the Constitution.

5:44

Last is President Sal, who is

5:47

now showing signs of wanting to

5:49

remain in power. And that

5:51

is something that the population

5:53

of Senegal is very skeptical

5:56

about in terms of letting

5:58

him proceed. The

6:00

electoral agenda that she wants

6:02

to change and postponed to

6:04

December fifteen. But historically speaking,

6:07

it's a very peaceful country.

6:09

Quite. A peaceful transition when we

6:11

look at what's happening. In the rest of

6:13

the region. Senegal has never had

6:15

a military coup. Senator has has

6:18

always felt that the military would

6:20

be by it's people side. If

6:23

anything were to arise, Now what

6:25

we're experiencing is a constitutional coup.

6:27

That is, they were disputed. People

6:30

do not believe in the the

6:32

root causes of that constitutional issue.

6:35

And also people were waiting

6:37

patiently for the voting. Day which

6:39

is twenty first of two thousand twenty four.

6:41

So to see this happen.

6:43

This culture of democracy that

6:45

people believed was cemented since

6:47

the referendum. That. Took place

6:50

in twenty sixteen under president like

6:52

a south term and seeing all

6:54

this unfold. To and uncertainty

6:56

that they cannot console as the

6:58

people who have the right to

7:00

vote and decide for the leader.

7:02

That is the main issue that

7:04

is happening. Outing everything businesses are

7:06

a standstill. Children are not going

7:08

to school anymore at the base

7:10

that they should. Press freedom is

7:12

being. Violated internet ban Stops

7:15

people from expressing themselves, people

7:17

being put in jail just

7:19

for having express. Their anger

7:21

or having express their opposition to

7:23

the current wishing for so. That

7:26

is unprecedented of synagogues. Culture

7:28

of. Democracy or so, thank you

7:31

very much. Pauses illegal treaty, has

7:33

a will establish preschool quarter, but

7:35

whether the roots of that civic

7:37

engagement with early stem from will

7:39

they actually expand Really right far

7:42

back in history some people will

7:44

claim and cynical was a French

7:46

colony and it had connections contacts

7:48

with France for a very long

7:51

time. Even really before the French

7:53

Empire was very well rooted across

7:55

West Africa. There are people who

7:57

will claim they were actually. Senegalese

8:00

emissaries at the Estates General in

8:02

the aftermath of the French revolution

8:04

in the late 18th century. Now

8:07

I don't know if that's true, but what

8:09

is definitely the case is under the French

8:11

colonial system, those citizens who

8:13

lived in towns, accessible

8:16

towns on the coast, and

8:18

were educated in French to

8:20

sort of secondary level were literate.

8:22

They could become French citizens at

8:24

a time when of course most

8:26

colonial powers didn't accord rights to

8:29

black Africans or people in South Asia or

8:31

whatever. And that meant

8:33

that in 1914 the

8:37

people of Dakar, or at least

8:39

the Dakar educated middle class, elected

8:41

a man called Blaise d'Yagne, the

8:43

first African member of the French

8:46

National Assembly, elected as a socialist

8:48

to the National Assembly in Paris

8:50

where he eventually became a minister.

8:53

And so those roots, that tradition

8:55

of political engagement is really deep

8:57

rooted and you can see it

9:00

even today. When you get into a

9:02

Dakar taxi, the taxi driver is as

9:04

likely to be listening to a political

9:06

debate as the football or music or

9:08

anything like that. And Senegalese,

9:10

almost any Senegalese you talk to,

9:13

has views on what

9:15

should happen in this present crisis or

9:17

in the difficult past couple of years

9:19

of confrontation between the government and opposition.

9:22

They know the names of the opposition members,

9:24

they know the names of the key government

9:26

figures and they have views on all that.

9:29

It's a very politicised country and

9:31

that deepens in a sense the reason

9:33

why there's so much anger over what

9:35

Naki Saleh has done in postponing the

9:38

election because the implication of what he's

9:40

done is that Senegal isn't a society

9:42

capable of producing a decent

9:44

choice of people to elect and that

9:46

the voters aren't capable of making that

9:48

choice. And they profoundly disagree. Can

9:51

you tell us how he came to power and

9:53

also how you would characterize his

10:00

style of leadership given that you

10:02

watch political leaders heads of state

10:04

all across West Africa. Yeah thank

10:06

you for having me and you

10:08

know just to pause notes on

10:10

how engaged Senegalese society is. I

10:12

just came back from a seven-day

10:14

trip to Dhaka and almost every

10:17

taxi driver I encountered had opinions

10:19

on what was going on. Even

10:21

some of them had posters of

10:23

the opposition leader Ushman Sunco in

10:25

somewhere in their cars. But just

10:27

to get to the Senegalese president

10:29

Makisal came to power in 2012

10:31

as Bosso was saying Abdullahi where the

10:33

president who came to power in 2000

10:35

was voted out by the Senegalese population

10:37

because he wanted to run for a

10:39

third time at the time you know

10:42

he ran for a third time the

10:44

first round of the election he couldn't

10:46

win altruistically because in his second legalese

10:48

election you need to win by more

10:50

than 50% so in the

10:52

second round the opposition rallied around

10:55

Makisal and he won the election

10:57

you know Makisal is not a

10:59

political neophyte you know he was

11:01

formerly prime minister and then he was

11:03

mayor of Fatik his hometown so you

11:06

know he's been in the corridors of

11:08

power long before he became president of

11:10

Senegal and in the 12 years that

11:12

he's been in charge of Senegal there's

11:14

been steady economic growth of

11:17

about you know 5% GDP

11:19

growth annually but the problem has

11:21

been you know in Senegal that

11:24

that's wealth has not been equitably

11:26

distributed and so many people feel

11:28

caught up and president Makisal himself

11:30

you know I met him last year when

11:32

I went to Dakar to interview him. He's

11:34

a very perceptive person who

11:37

thinks of himself as a leader

11:39

of not only Senegal but

11:41

also a leader in Africa who

11:43

could speak for the continent and

11:45

so you know he thinks highly

11:47

of what you know he has

11:50

to say and I think that

11:52

especially the recent events kind of

11:54

jazz with what Senegalese people think

11:56

of their leader. Yeah so he

11:58

thinks of himself as very much an

12:00

African statesperson, a leader

12:02

for the continent, the region. Also, did you want to jump

12:05

in at that point? Yes, I

12:07

just wanted to reinforce to what's

12:09

being said here by stating that

12:11

Senegalese people highly applauded President

12:13

Maki-Sal when he came into power

12:16

because he's the first fully Senegalese

12:18

with a fully Senegalese wife and

12:20

family. So that represented a lot

12:23

for the voters and that

12:25

represented a feeling and of hope

12:27

that this couple for the first time

12:29

will know the reality of the country,

12:32

will understand the difficulties people are going

12:34

through. So this could be their chance

12:36

of seeing Senegalese prosper and Senegalese

12:39

have a certain standard at

12:41

the international level and all that

12:43

just fell unfortunately. I think Bosso

12:45

makes a very important point. When

12:47

Maki-Sal was first elected, people were

12:50

really pleased by the fact that

12:52

he had come from a humble

12:54

background. He actually wasn't from the

12:56

Dakar elite. His father was a

12:58

school caretaker in Fatik which

13:00

is a provincial town and that

13:03

was a huge plus in the sense

13:05

that he had his education, he had

13:08

gone through the Senegalese education system, although

13:10

he finally did some later sort of

13:12

elite petroleum engineering studies in Paris. He'd

13:14

gone through government secondary school, the

13:17

state university, etc. etc. So this

13:19

was a vindication of the success

13:21

of the Senegalese model and a

13:23

huge amount of hope was vested

13:25

in him and he did

13:27

have a very effective rural development

13:29

program. So people at first thought

13:31

he's unlike WAD who was a

13:34

man of rhetoric rather than delivery.

13:37

Sal really was delivering stuff and

13:39

there's something really very tragic about

13:41

the fact that he has allowed

13:44

himself to, because of his

13:46

self-confidence, to become diverted into

13:48

this wish to personally dominate

13:50

things, to not accept

13:52

challenge and question, to allow

13:54

the judicial system to be

13:56

politically manipulated, to shut out

13:58

challenges. In the

14:00

2019 election, he was facing a

14:03

potential challenge from the then mayor

14:05

of Dakar and on a really

14:07

rather minor technical financial infringement about

14:10

municipal funds, a court

14:12

case shut that man, Khalifasal, out

14:14

of the election so he couldn't

14:16

run, and yet, Maqisal

14:18

almost certainly would have won it because

14:20

at the time he was still very

14:22

popular. And somehow this

14:24

willingness to use the system to try

14:26

and block, that's really where the roots

14:29

of this mistrust are, and it's

14:31

gone on for several years so that

14:33

now, when he makes this

14:35

rationale claiming that it's because of another

14:38

candidate disputing about the electoral court that

14:40

we have to delay the election, nobody

14:43

takes his words at face value. Well, let's

14:45

hear what those words are, particularly the words

14:47

spoken by a representative of

14:50

government, a minister and government

14:52

spokesperson, Abdub Karim Fafana, who

14:54

told the BBC, is it

14:56

not been a pleasant decision to make for President

14:58

Khal? When

15:03

you are a leader, you often

15:05

have to take unpopular and sometimes

15:07

messiness to decisions. As

15:09

for President Maqisal, it's not a pleasure

15:11

for him to do so. He's

15:14

been in office for 12 years

15:16

with a good record and worldwide

15:18

credentials for all his pleas for

15:20

Africa and a new global governance.

15:23

He's not going to get his hands

15:25

dirty just to stay home for another

15:27

six or eight months. Article

15:30

42 of the constitutions said that

15:32

he's the guarantor of the well-frontening

15:35

of the institutions, so he has

15:37

a moral obligation to stay and

15:39

solve this problem. He could

15:41

have said, listen, I've got two months left,

15:43

I'll give you the keys and let you

15:45

sort out your problem. And

15:48

he's taking on the responsibility of

15:50

clearing up the trouble between the

15:52

constitutional court and the parliament. And

15:55

that's what happens in all great democracies.

16:00

Well, Aminata Torre once served in

16:02

President Tsai's government. Indeed, he appointed

16:04

her Prime Minister. Now one of

16:06

his most prominent opponents she does

16:09

not accept, his motive is to

16:11

ensure Senegal's stability. The country has

16:13

been stable so far. We were

16:15

about to go to the election.

16:17

He stopped the process 10 hours

16:19

before the beginning of the campaign.

16:21

Senegal has no crisis until he

16:23

triggered the crisis by postponing the

16:26

election. The consequence, we had demonstration

16:28

and we had three kids shot

16:30

dead. So who triggered the crisis?

16:33

Well, the President, perhaps in response to

16:35

those mass protests and fatalities, announced

16:37

a national dialogue involving politicians, civic

16:39

leaders such as Senegal's imams, highly

16:42

influential as they are, business groups

16:44

and unions. The opposition made its

16:46

participation conditional on a general amnesty.

16:48

It's been granted, signaling the release

16:50

of the many people detained not

16:53

just this month, but in previous

16:55

periods of protest, many of

16:57

whom have been held without trial or conviction. Anamata

17:00

Torre, that former Prime Minister, says there's

17:02

one further thing the President must do

17:04

if he wants to ensure stability, step

17:07

down as the Constitution requires on the

17:09

2nd of April. Is President

17:11

Makisel above the Constitution and the law? No,

17:14

he is not, which have triggered

17:16

the demonstration to defend our democracy and

17:18

our Constitution. If he want to stay

17:21

on illegally, despite the

17:23

outcry of the whole

17:25

international community, it's

17:27

not very difficult to guess what

17:29

the problem is going to be.

17:31

Well, he will face sanctions, he

17:33

will face continuous demonstrations, instability, and

17:36

he doesn't have the right to

17:38

do that because he has been

17:40

elected democratically. He needs to step

17:42

down. Comes April 2nd,

17:44

in between, he has to

17:46

organize the election and Senegalese

17:49

will choose the President. Anu,

17:51

what impact do you think such an

17:53

announcement would have on people in Senegal

17:56

if Makisel really did do that? is

18:00

going to step down by

18:03

April 2. The Parliament was able

18:05

in a late night session the

18:07

other week to essentially extend its

18:10

tenure until December 15. So

18:12

I don't think the President would step

18:14

down. If he did step down, I

18:16

would imagine there would be jubilations on

18:19

the streets of Dakar and other parts

18:21

of Senegal. But I think from the

18:23

time I spent in Dakar earlier this

18:25

month, the feeling that most people have

18:27

is that the President is in a

18:29

way trying to not

18:31

only extend his tenure in office,

18:33

but perhaps stay even longer. And

18:35

I think as the former Prime

18:37

Minister said that April 2 is

18:39

going to be a critical date

18:42

to decide how do people react.

18:44

So Tal, in Dakar, I would

18:46

like to come back to the testimonies

18:48

that you shared about Pua Fafana and

18:50

Madam Aminatar Ture. Abdukharim Fafana, I

18:52

respect to Haile Li for having his own voice.

18:55

He called out an article

18:57

different from the one of number

19:00

27 of the Constitution, which states

19:02

that no one can serve more

19:05

than two consecutive terms. In 2016,

19:08

there was a referendum which is cemented,

19:10

at least people hoped that

19:12

it was cementing a culture

19:14

of democracy in Senegal, particularly that

19:17

article number 27 of the

19:19

Constitution, which said, and I

19:21

repeat it, no one can serve

19:23

more than two consecutive terms. That

19:25

is the reason why Abdullah would be

19:28

ousted from power. Because he simply tried

19:30

to ignore that term of the Constitution.

19:32

He tried to ignore that article 27

19:34

of the Constitution. And that is

19:36

the same thing that Makisal is doing.

19:39

Madam Aminatar Ture mentioned, there is no

19:41

chaos in the country. There is no

19:44

reason to stop the electoral process. There

19:46

is absolutely nothing that stops it except

19:49

one protest of one candidate out

19:51

of the 20 candidates because

19:54

of a dual nationality. And that

19:56

is Abdullah Ewaad's son, Karim Wadhru,

19:58

who's been in exile. Okay. for

20:00

the past, for many years now. I don't want

20:02

to get too high up on the names because

20:04

it can get quite confusing to do what it

20:06

is. I take the point you're

20:09

making. Effectively, it's a row of one

20:11

candidate, he was disqualified, it's said to

20:13

be ineligible, then he's protesting,

20:15

his supporters are protesting, and then the

20:17

president steps in and says different bits

20:19

of the institutions are in dispute, so

20:21

we need time to sort this out.

20:23

Paul Melley, what do you make? So

20:25

not dispute? Yeah. Okay, sorry.

20:28

That's right. It seems to me that Senegal

20:31

actually, as Mimi Toure, the former

20:33

prime minister said, there wasn't a

20:35

crisis. There was a crisis

20:38

last year, there was huge controversy

20:40

over Usman Sanko, the most charismatic

20:42

opposition politician, but actually

20:45

in recent weeks... Who's just saying,

20:47

who's kind of jailing of various

20:49

charges, he says they're trumped up,

20:51

we won't go into that, but essentially means he couldn't

20:53

be a candidate. Yeah, so he couldn't be a candidate.

20:56

But in the last, say,

20:59

two months, Senegal had

21:01

been moving relatively calmly

21:03

towards the electoral process. So Sanko,

21:05

the guy who's the hero of

21:08

Senegalese youth, and the

21:10

guy over whose case there'd been a

21:12

series of protests and quite a lot

21:14

of people killed last year,

21:17

nevertheless Sanko had in fact

21:19

lined up a stand-in

21:22

alternative candidate from his political movement.

21:25

So in a sense he's accepted. Yeah, so I'm

21:27

disqualified, there's no point in arguing about it. I

21:29

know, do you want to come in briefly? Yeah,

21:32

no, I just wanted to jump in,

21:34

like Paul was saying, the Sanko movement,

21:36

the charismatic opposition leader, they had essentially

21:38

accepted that, you know, they fought their

21:40

case in court, but they realised that

21:42

there was no way they were going

21:44

to prevail, and they had lined up

21:46

a new candidate that young people in

21:48

Senegal had started to rally behind. So

21:50

in other words, just to go back

21:52

to you Paul, the bottom line is,

21:54

rather as Borso suggests, is it fair

21:57

to say that everybody's accepted the rules

21:59

of the game? even though Wadi

22:01

is challenging them, but he's doing it through the

22:03

courts. Under the rules,

22:05

which is where you're supposed to do it,

22:07

except apparently the president. Yes, and... Well, you're

22:09

not on the floor. Sorry, Paul. We'll

22:11

come back to you, Paul. So, boom is

22:13

missing. I was just going to say, the

22:16

Sanko movement, which has the capacity, as we've

22:18

seen on many occasions, to bring huge numbers

22:20

of people onto the streets, as Anu just

22:22

said, they had accepted and

22:24

in fact, we know that they

22:26

had accepted it really internally because

22:29

just a few days ago, actually

22:31

before Mikey Siles' announcement, they had

22:33

released a campaign video in

22:36

which Sanko endorsed the standing

22:38

candidate and because Sanko's been

22:40

in jail since the middle of last year,

22:42

we know that that video was shot many

22:45

months ago. So they've been preparing for this.

22:47

They were quite geared up for it and

22:50

the rest of the political system seemed

22:52

to have adjusted to the fact that...

22:54

Other names would be out. That Sanko

22:56

would be out. And in

22:58

fact, the wider public opinion is

23:01

well aware that although Faye, the

23:03

standing guy, doesn't

23:05

have government experience, there are a host

23:07

of politicians in the opposition who

23:10

would have been able to be recruited as his

23:12

ministers or whatever. So there wasn't

23:14

a crisis. It was moving

23:16

towards a peaceful situation. Well, there wasn't

23:18

a crisis. There is a crisis now.

23:20

We're going to have to pause the

23:23

discussion as we take a short break.

23:25

Our panel, Anu Adewea, West Africa

23:27

correspondent for The Financial Times, Paul Melley

23:29

from the Africa Progress Chatham House, and

23:31

Borsall Tal, who is a freelance journalist

23:33

joining us from Dhaka, will look beyond

23:35

the immediate political crisis to some of

23:37

the factors which are adding fuel to

23:40

the fire, including Senegal's frustrated jobless young,

23:42

resentment of French influence and an increasingly

23:44

unstable neighbourhood. A reminder, you're listening to

23:46

the real story from the BBC World

23:48

Service with me, Sean Lay. This

23:51

week, we're asking if Senegal's democracy

23:53

can survive the president's decision to

23:55

delay the election of his successor.

23:57

A real story panel, Anu Adewea. Owe,

24:00

who is West Africa correspondent for the

24:02

Financial Times. He's in the BBC Bureau

24:04

in Lagos. Paul Mellie from the Africa

24:06

Program at Chatham House, the think tank,

24:08

is with me here in our London

24:10

studio. And Borso Tal, a freelance journalist

24:12

based in the Senate of the League

24:14

capital Dhaka, who's a recipient of the

24:16

Chieving Scholarship from the University of Glasgow

24:18

in the UK and a member of

24:20

the International Women's Media Foundation, is

24:23

in the capital Dhaka. They've already discussed

24:25

the political crisis caused by President Mackey

24:27

Sal's decision to delay this month's election

24:30

of a successor by a further seven

24:32

months. We're going to use the remainder

24:34

of our time, which is certainly not

24:37

that long unfortunately, to discuss the things

24:39

which may make this apparently resilient democracy

24:41

more vulnerable than it may at first

24:43

sight appear. And we're going

24:45

to begin with the question of the

24:48

economy. Dr. Andogo Samba

24:50

Silla is an economist and served

24:52

as an advisor in the President's

24:54

office. He told me the anti-sal

24:57

protests provide a snapshot of the

24:59

country's demographic challenge and

25:01

economic problem. You will

25:03

see that Senegal managed to record, you

25:05

know, something like 6% annual

25:08

GDP growth, economic growth,

25:10

between 2012 and 2018

25:13

before the pandemic. And from

25:15

the pandemic, we also managed to have something like 4%

25:18

annual economic growth. But the thing

25:20

is, in most of African countries,

25:23

these rates of economic growth are

25:26

not associated with decent job

25:28

creation. And that's an issue because

25:31

most of the people, they simply

25:33

could not find this unemployment, you

25:36

see. And most of our young people,

25:38

generally they decide to take makeshift boats

25:40

to try to come to Europe because

25:42

they don't find any economic perspectives. So

25:45

on the one hand, you could find nice economic

25:47

figures saying that the economy is going well. But

25:50

on the other hand, you will see that for most of

25:52

the people, they do not see

25:54

prosperity. And you say most young people,

25:56

and this is a country where actually

25:59

most of the... people are young, 60% under 25.

26:03

Yeah, most of the people are young and

26:05

they do not see any perspective from that.

26:08

And now, when these young people

26:10

start to demonstrate they are

26:12

suppressed or they are put into jail, some

26:15

of them have been killed. We

26:17

never saw that in Senegal. So

26:19

that means that the economic figures

26:22

do not tell the whole story. And

26:24

what about the elements on

26:26

which the Senegalese economy depends?

26:30

Senegal is a relatively diversified

26:32

economy in terms of exports.

26:34

Compared to others, we managed

26:37

to export refined oil, phosphate,

26:39

fish, peanuts, these kind of

26:41

things. But now there

26:43

will be new development with oil

26:46

and gas and especially gas because

26:48

we have found a significant gas

26:50

reserves. So this will boost the

26:53

economic growth of Senegal. But we

26:55

know how the hydrocarbon economy works.

26:58

It's a sector that is somehow

27:00

isolated from the rest of the economy. So

27:02

you could have high rates of economic growth

27:05

due to the exploitation of oil and gas,

27:07

but this will not necessarily translate

27:10

in better living standards for the many. What

27:13

is the risk that this

27:15

crisis poses to the economy?

27:17

For the short term, you

27:19

see that some sectors are

27:21

really impacted. The government

27:23

made a huge investment to

27:26

have a modern transportation system. Normally

27:29

it's 12,000 and more of people who

27:34

use this new system of transportation. So

27:37

when you have demonstrations or when the

27:39

climate is tense, well, people

27:42

would simply stay at home and

27:44

this will create lower

27:46

sale figures for transportation companies. You

27:48

could also see that whenever people

27:50

say they would like to demonstrate,

27:53

the internet mobile is cut off

27:55

and most of the payments happen

27:58

more and more. using

28:00

a mobile internet. So this will also

28:02

disrupt the economic flows and

28:04

the banking system is also impacted.

28:06

So on the short run, you

28:08

have lower sale figures and

28:10

huge costs imposed on the

28:13

businesses but also on the informal

28:15

sector. Let me ask you then

28:17

about the longer term consequences. If

28:19

this crisis continues for months, what

28:21

could be the economic impact? Already

28:24

we saw that these bonds were traded

28:26

at higher prices. That means that now

28:28

if the US government wanted to go

28:31

to the capital markets to borrow in

28:33

foreign currency, it would have to pay

28:35

much more interest rates. The

28:37

other thing is that some investors,

28:39

for example, in the hydrocarbon sector,

28:42

they might say, well, we have to

28:44

be cautious because we never know what

28:46

could happen afterwards. But let's see how

28:48

it unfolds. That

28:50

was Dr. Ndongo Sambassilla talking

28:52

to me a little earlier.

28:54

But also tell in

28:56

the Senegalese capital, DACA, how much does

28:59

the state of the economy figure

29:01

in the protest that Senegalese experienced, not

29:03

just in the last few weeks, but

29:05

also in recent years, would you say?

29:10

Mainly starting March 2021.

29:14

I think when people started to really feel the

29:17

economy and what the

29:19

consequences are of not having

29:21

all these protests and all

29:23

the popular resistance against

29:26

a third term to

29:28

start with, companies are at a

29:30

standstill. So many people

29:32

have lost their jobs simply because

29:35

they are afraid of opening

29:37

during protest times. They

29:39

are afraid because they don't know exactly what's

29:42

going to happen from one day to

29:44

another. The economist

29:46

just mentioned oil

29:48

and gas. There is a discovery of it since

29:51

2014. And we're talking

29:53

billions of euros, but

29:56

at the hands of whom, we're going

29:58

to mostly benefit from this. as

30:00

a main investor. O'Chaun is

30:03

a multinational company

30:06

in Senegal. As

30:09

a matter of fact, when something goes down,

30:12

all the French companies are

30:14

targeted, which is very unfortunate for

30:16

all the money lost, all the

30:18

investment lost, and also all the local

30:20

people working in those companies who lose

30:22

their jobs. Thank you. So

30:25

anything that's happening right now is

30:27

under the responsibility of a president

30:29

who's known since 2012 that there

30:31

is a reality coming ahead,

30:34

which is a time when people

30:37

are waiting for it. Yeah. Okay.

30:39

You know what I mean? Yeah, I do get

30:41

that. I do add a way. I just wanted

30:44

to ask you about this economy question in particular.

30:47

There have been claims that presidents' House of

30:49

Power reluctance to see power may in part

30:51

be because the

30:54

party of the principal

30:56

opposition, the leader of

30:58

whom was jailed last year, another candidate is going

31:00

to run, we talked about that in the first

31:02

half, that that party is committed to withdrawing Senegal

31:05

from what's called the CFA franc, in

31:07

other words, the currency that's shared

31:09

with other countries in the region, but which

31:11

is ultimately backed by the French. How

31:14

credible is that as an explanation? And perhaps in answering

31:16

that, if you could give us a quick, very

31:19

quick guide to what the CFA franc is. Yeah.

31:22

The CFA franc is this currency

31:25

used across West and Central Africa.

31:27

So this country is in West

31:30

Africa, like Senegal, Mali, Niger, Burkina

31:32

Faso, who use an Ivory Coast,

31:34

Cote d'Ivoire, who use the West

31:36

African franc, and this country is

31:39

in Central Africa who

31:41

use the Central African franc. And

31:43

these two currencies, you know, they're pretty

31:45

much the same thing, are

31:48

pegged to the euro up

31:50

until very recently. These countries

31:52

had to put a portion of

31:54

their foreign reserves with the Central Bank of

31:56

France. That was very controversial

31:59

and that is... is being repealed. On

32:02

to the thinking that perhaps

32:04

the president is afraid

32:06

of what the opposition might do. That's

32:09

a legitimate concern that we've heard from

32:12

some of his allies, that he thinks

32:14

that the opposition might

32:16

be too radical and that

32:19

they might impede Senegalese economic

32:21

progress as its way. But

32:23

the fact of the matter is it's

32:26

wanting to promise something, it's another thing

32:28

to implement. There's many countries that

32:30

for a variety of reasons

32:32

have said they want to

32:34

leave the CFA franc, some

32:36

of them because it's an

32:38

emotional argument about sovereignty. But

32:41

also these countries have also realized that

32:43

having a stable currency is good

32:46

for the economy, although there's also concerns that

32:49

being pegged to the euro makes exports

32:52

from these countries uncompetitive. By

32:55

the way, you cannot postpone

32:57

an election because of what the

32:59

opposition might do. President

33:02

Makisawa said last year when he said

33:04

he wasn't going to run, he said

33:06

there's so many capable people in Senegal

33:08

who can run this country. So I

33:11

think it would be surprising if

33:13

he then decided that because he's

33:15

afraid of what the opposition might

33:17

do, he's not going to let

33:19

the election go as planned on February 25.

33:22

It's very much Paul Melley here in the studio

33:25

with me in London. That's a

33:27

really important point, isn't it? Something

33:29

rather impressive about Senegal is that

33:31

it's not short of

33:34

capable politicians, civil

33:37

servants, technocrats. It

33:39

doesn't all depend on one man or one woman.

33:42

No, it doesn't at all. It

33:44

is highly capable. And

33:46

some of the politicians who have

33:49

or are currently holding high office

33:51

in Senegal, they've held very senior

33:54

positions in the international system. Now,

33:56

you can say that in the day-to-day

33:59

managing of the economy, Sometimes the elite in

34:01

Dakar may be a little bit out of

34:03

touch with some of the grassroots concerns of

34:05

people in poor areas and in the villages.

34:08

But can Senegal

34:10

manage its economy? Can

34:12

it manage its budget? Can

34:15

it maintain levels of reserves? Can

34:17

it avoid a budget crisis, etc., etc.? Certainly.

34:20

In fact, it's far from being

34:22

the most well-resourced country in West

34:25

Africa, and yet it has had

34:27

this quite strong growth rate, and

34:29

all the oil and gas hasn't started producing

34:31

yet. So the growth isn't from that.

34:34

It's been a well-managed economy,

34:36

and they've avoided debt crisis,

34:38

etc. So all of those

34:40

reasons that Maquisao gave, the

34:44

sort of subtext, the implication that the

34:46

opposition might make a mess of it, isn't

34:49

really credible. And many people think

34:51

that had Osman Sanko been able

34:53

to run or were his stand-in

34:56

to run to be elected now,

34:58

they would assemble a team from this

35:01

pool of very well-established people, and

35:03

that would actually reassure the voters

35:05

anyway. So it would strengthen their

35:07

political chances. Well, Senegal, like many

35:09

former colonies, remains heavily influenced by

35:11

the country which once controlled it,

35:13

France. We've mentioned the most visible

35:15

evidence of that, the currency.

35:18

Aminatoure, one of Mr. Sall's prime ministers,

35:20

now an opponent, that we heard from

35:22

earlier, is disappointed that in

35:24

this crisis, despite its influence,

35:27

French supporters not be more forthcoming.

35:31

That's what we expect from France.

35:33

We would like a direct statement

35:35

from them. It's about time that

35:37

Emmanuel Macron strongly asked and required

35:40

from Maquisao that he respects the

35:42

Constitution. Aminatoure,

35:44

Pouveli. I

35:47

think probably what's holding Emmanuel Macron

35:49

back is precisely the difficulties that

35:51

France has faced over the last

35:54

several years across the region

35:56

where, under Emmanuel Macron, the

35:59

French have massive... invested, they've increased

36:01

their aid budget, but of course they've

36:03

had this big military presence across West

36:05

Africa that's proved hugely controversial and has

36:08

ended in tears in the case of

36:10

the Sahelian countries where the French have

36:12

been forced to withdraw.

36:15

And so there's a reluctance to be

36:17

seen saying anything about internal

36:19

Senegalese politics for fear that someone

36:22

will then say, oh well this

36:24

is the old colonial power interfering.

36:26

And it's very difficult for the

36:28

French because certainly they

36:31

have this long long history of

36:33

influence but also there's an element

36:35

of perception. So for example the

36:37

huge gas project that's being developed

36:39

is actually BP and the

36:41

new Sangoma oil field that's being developed,

36:44

the two future big earners in

36:46

the hydrocarbon, that's Woodside which was

36:49

Australian. The French are actually not

36:52

really being players in that and yet among many

36:54

ordinary Senegalese on the street they just sort of

36:56

assume which that this must be the French. Which

36:58

is a question I wanted to put to

37:00

Boursotard who's in Dakar, the Senegalese

37:02

capital. How would you say France

37:05

is regarded beyond Senegal's

37:07

political elite? There

37:09

are many ties between France and Senegal

37:12

making it almost

37:14

impossible to break. You know when we

37:16

hear the narratives from the

37:18

youngest generation particularly taking

37:20

afterwards of countries

37:22

like Mali, the new alliances that are

37:25

being formed in West Africa against the

37:27

French and that is simply

37:29

because they want to see Senegal

37:32

just benefit from its natural

37:34

resources. We mentioned oil and gas,

37:37

I just mentioned earlier that it was

37:39

most likely discovered

37:41

in 2014 that was 10 years ago. It's

37:45

been a very slow process. Very

37:48

slow process, it's going to be exploited

37:51

in 2024. So

37:54

that might be one of the reasons of all

37:56

this confusion

37:58

as well. We have gold. from

38:00

Sabadola. We have other natural

38:02

resources across the country. I just spent

38:05

a few days in Killugu which is

38:07

700 kilometers southeast of Dakar. So it's

38:09

inland. And that's where all the gold

38:12

inland, very, very remote inland.

38:16

And people there are

38:18

watching with hope that they can

38:21

have their roads built. And

38:23

for the past years, it's just being

38:26

done by the drop, if

38:28

I can call it that way, very slowly.

38:30

These roads are being built and the

38:32

hope is being alive as opposed to

38:34

big cities where you are having all these things

38:36

being done, but for an elite. Somebody

38:39

mentioned earlier, which

38:42

is the bus. Yes, it was

38:44

the economy, Dr. Saleh. Exactly.

38:46

So all that economy is

38:49

mostly under the investment of

38:51

France. And now

38:53

people, I just recently found out

38:55

that the main highway,

38:57

you know, the Payasia was

38:59

extended in the benefit of a French company

39:02

for the next six years maybe. When

39:05

it was supposed to be stopped and

39:07

taken over maybe by

39:09

the Senegalese economy. That

39:12

tells you a lot about how people

39:14

are perceiving France as still being present

39:17

in Senegal economy. And I know I'd

39:19

aware one example of perhaps

39:21

how the relationship is not as

39:24

simple as people may

39:26

imagine is that fishing,

39:28

which used to be such a big part of the economy, I

39:30

think as much as 20% in

39:34

trouble, and no longer providing the

39:36

jobs for fishermen individually because of the arrival

39:38

of these huge trawlers,

39:41

which are either licensed by the Chinese or

39:44

licensed by European countries. And then those young

39:46

people as we had are trying to get

39:48

to Europe because the jobs they had in

39:50

Africa are gone. And they

39:52

see Europe as their only hope of

39:56

a future even though Europe apparently judging

39:58

from the political debate in Europe. doesn't

40:00

want them. Exactly. You know,

40:02

the time I spent in Senegal was

40:05

mainly to report on the fishing

40:07

industry and migration and how interlinked

40:09

they are. And I spent

40:11

a lot of time talking to not

40:14

only young fishermen but also women

40:16

in the Valleute and those are, you

40:18

know, the people who sometimes dry the

40:20

fish or sell the fish. The complaint

40:23

is across board, you know, about

40:25

20% of the Senegalese population

40:27

engaged in fishing as their occupation.

40:29

And the complaint I had from

40:31

many people was fishing, being a

40:33

fisherman or working in the fishing

40:35

industry used to be the ticket

40:37

to a respectable middle-class life in

40:39

Senegal. And that's no longer the

40:41

case because as you say boats,

40:44

trawlers, either from China or

40:47

from the European Union have come

40:49

into Senegalese waters, you know, legally

40:52

we should say, but they take

40:54

most of the fish and then

40:56

artisanal fishers cannot fish in these

40:59

waters because there's almost nothing left

41:01

for them. And there's so many young men who

41:03

have decided that if there's

41:05

nothing left for me in my country

41:07

I might as well go to where

41:10

our fisher is going to. And you

41:12

know, that's how people conceptualize this in

41:14

very stark terms, that their

41:16

resources have been taken abroad and

41:18

they are left holding

41:20

essentially an empty basket. Just to

41:23

jump in a little bit about

41:25

the fishing industry. All

41:27

the coastal sides of Senegal have

41:29

been struggling tremendously, first of

41:32

all, by climate change. I spent a

41:34

lot of time with

41:36

those families. What's happening is

41:38

that these fishermen are

41:41

sometimes hired by the big boats,

41:44

if I can call it that

41:46

way, okay? So the biggest industries

41:48

hire them and that's a

41:50

sort of way of shutting them up

41:52

when it comes to protesting about

41:55

the licenses and all. The second thing is

41:57

that there is what they

41:59

need. what the fishermen and their

42:01

families need, and they expressed it to me for

42:03

the past year and a half that I've been

42:05

going to San Luis, to the south,

42:08

expressing their feelings and noting their

42:10

feelings and understanding them through

42:13

their narratives is that they need

42:15

support from the government to defend

42:17

them when it comes to

42:20

distributing the licenses, when

42:22

it comes to giving them the privilege

42:24

of having at least a portion of

42:26

the ocean and not give them

42:28

just the frontal portion and

42:30

not allow them to go all the way inside

42:32

at sea and get to where the fish is.

42:36

You understand? Yeah, I do. So

42:38

there is a problem with

42:41

defending its people. The

42:43

government needs to defend the

42:45

interest of its people when we look at

42:47

the fishermen at first. I wanted to finish

42:49

the program by talking about the effects

42:52

potentially on the region and beyond. If

42:55

this crisis persists, we

42:57

spoke Paul Melley here in the

42:59

studio with me when you were on the program last

43:02

time about the crisis that was

43:04

affecting the Sahel countries, particularly those

43:06

that had suffered in some cases

43:08

to military coups in the space

43:11

of a single year. More

43:13

broadly, democracy seems to be

43:16

struggling to justify its

43:18

continued existence in West Africa.

43:20

You may think that's overstating it, but

43:22

I wonder what you think, therefore, of the

43:25

Senegal crisis in that context. It's

43:28

worth thinking, remembering that if you go back

43:30

to just say early 2017 when the

43:32

Ekoas bloc, 15 countries, used

43:37

a combination of diplomacy and

43:40

the threat of military intervention to

43:42

force one of the region's last

43:44

dictators, Yaya Jamay, to give up

43:47

and accept defeat in an election,

43:50

setting up democracy in Gambia. And

43:53

at that stage, Ekoas could rightly say,

43:55

we may not be Africa's richest region,

43:58

but we're the region of the continent has made

44:00

really most progress in developing democratic

44:02

participatory governance. And Echowas will go

44:04

to the economic community of West

44:06

African states. It very

44:08

much provides political leadership. Yes, rather

44:10

like the EU, it starts with

44:13

an economic name but has in

44:15

fact become also a very

44:17

strongly political entity. But

44:19

here we are now, six,

44:21

seven years later, and we have

44:23

four countries in Echowas under military

44:25

government, and that's a real

44:28

threat to the sort of Echowas model.

44:31

And Echowas back in 2001 had signed

44:33

a protocol on democracy and good governance,

44:36

but it isn't managing now,

44:39

obviously, to live up entirely to

44:41

that protocol. And one

44:43

of the things that really fuels

44:45

grassroots popular resentment, particularly when you

44:47

go around cities in West Africa,

44:49

is the feeling that there are

44:51

double standards. It's taken

44:53

very tough action where it can against

44:56

some of the military putchists. Not

44:58

all of them. In some cases, it's negotiating, but

45:00

in some cases. But there's a

45:03

feeling among many, many ordinary West

45:05

Africans that it's hypocritical, because

45:07

in many of the countries with

45:09

elected governments, civilian elected leaders are

45:12

doing the sorts of things that Makisal is

45:14

now being accused of. The

45:17

phrase constitutional come has now entered

45:19

the lexicon. And in

45:21

most cases, nothing serious

45:23

has been done about those moves at all.

45:26

And is there any sign that in the

45:28

case of Senegal, they're going to do anything

45:30

more serious than... Well, that's why Senegal is

45:32

so totemic. I

45:36

mean, this is a country that is emblematic

45:39

of, if you like, West Africa's democratic traditions

45:42

for all the reasons we were talking about

45:44

earlier. And now the president

45:46

is trying to change the rules, as

45:48

Bossa was pointing out, in midcourse and

45:51

so that's a real huge question. If

45:53

Ekoas is not seen to take firm

45:55

line with Makisal, that will be a

45:58

massive further blow to its credibility. and

46:00

popular support for the club, which is

46:02

often seen by many ordinary people, increasingly

46:04

as a sort of incumbent

46:07

president's club. Borso

46:09

tell, is there credibility in

46:11

President Sal's promise of

46:13

a national dialogue to try to resolve

46:16

this crisis, or is really the only

46:18

resolution that will appease

46:20

popular opinion, his departure

46:22

from office on the 2nd of April? Well,

46:26

you know, traditionally Senegal is known

46:28

for its power of dialogue, okay?

46:30

In Wallach it calls Masla, people

46:33

get together, discuss and find solutions

46:35

together. But what's

46:38

happening now is that there was

46:40

an attempt of national dialogue, which

46:42

was not completely inclusive of

46:45

all political parties and of

46:47

all key opponents who

46:49

could have a voice in

46:51

that discussion and see what was wrong and what was

46:53

right, okay, and how to pursue with it. There

46:57

is a huge press freedom

46:59

violation that we've been experiencing. Senegal

47:02

has a generation of

47:04

voters who were born around 2000,

47:07

and that's about the time that

47:10

the country experienced the first free

47:13

transition between Abdul Jouf and Abdul

47:15

Aiwad. This generation of voters

47:17

only know about democratic rule. They

47:20

know nothing outside of that. So

47:23

to see that violated by the

47:25

very president whom they applauded

47:28

just 12 years ago for having

47:30

fought against a violation of

47:33

the constitutional box,

47:37

that is a big betrayal for

47:39

this generation. And I am just

47:41

sharing what I hear from people. People

47:44

are very, very sad and

47:47

broken by this feeling that they

47:50

have that Maqisar is not respecting.

47:53

Borsutal, thank you very much. I'm going to give

47:55

the last word to Anu, Anuwe. Anu,

47:58

what do you think is going to happen? next.

48:01

It's a hard question to ask you. It's

48:03

an impossible question to answer in some ways.

48:05

But what's your sense of

48:07

how this crisis is going to

48:09

develop or is it going to be resolved? Yeah,

48:12

as you think, as you've hopefully

48:14

said, it's an almost impossible question

48:16

to answer. You know, there's

48:19

still one last lever of days

48:21

to go in that the Constitutional

48:23

Council still has to approve

48:26

Parliament's recommendation that the election

48:29

be postponed. We expect that

48:32

in the coming days or weeks, we

48:35

have no idea what's going to happen, given that

48:38

members of the Council were

48:40

appointed by the President, perhaps

48:42

we don't expect them to go against

48:44

what he wants. But I think

48:47

President Makisal is going to come

48:50

under a lot of pressure to

48:52

hold the elections as soon as

48:54

possible. ECOWAS, the West African bloc

48:56

has sent a team to dialogue

48:58

in Dakar this week. Obviously,

49:00

we don't expect them to share what

49:03

was said in those meetings. But I

49:05

think with pressure from the international community

49:08

and from its closest allies, perhaps

49:10

there could be a scenario where

49:13

the elections are held quicker

49:15

than in December, as has

49:17

been proposed, because, you know, as Bosso was

49:20

saying, there's a lot of disappointment in the

49:22

country. And I think, you

49:24

know, the President has to

49:26

factor that into his thinking and,

49:28

you know, perhaps move the election

49:30

closer to the original shadow. Thank

49:34

you very much, Anu. And thank you

49:36

very much to all of our panel

49:38

who joined us for the real story

49:40

this week. Anu Adawe, who

49:42

is West Africa correspondent for the

49:44

Financial Times, Paul Mellie from the

49:47

AFCA programme at Chatham House

49:49

and freelance journalist Basu total, who is

49:51

based in the Senegalese capital, Dakar. Don't

49:53

forget, all of our real stories are

49:55

available now on our podcast feed. It

49:58

is a very, very extensive

50:00

archive of countries and issues across

50:02

the globe of recent years. For

50:04

now, for this week from producers

50:06

Rosita Riazati and Zach Brophy and

50:08

Misha Orlay, that's the real story.

50:10

Thanks for being with us. Do join

50:12

us again.