0:00

Marshall

0:00

and Sauger here. Welcome back

0:03

to

0:03

the realignment.

0:09

Hey, guys. It's been a bit since we've done

0:11

a back and forth discussion episode,

0:13

but I know you guys. Hungry for it. So

0:15

we're back excited to do these especially

0:18

going into twenty twenty three.

0:20

Lots of big stories today. Just a quick note,

0:22

these extra fried fries day

0:24

episodes, come via super

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cast subscribers. So if you'd like

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to support the show and go to realignment

0:31

about super cast, dot com.

0:33

Sagar and I are talking out this week. We know people

0:35

are obviously hurting with the

0:38

Wazai vibe session to use

0:40

Kyla Scanlon's Helpful discourse

0:42

for itself. No worries if you can't afford it, but if

0:44

you can't support the show, would really appreciate

0:46

it. Saga, let's just dive into

0:48

news and then take some of the q

0:50

and a that folks sent in

0:52

after the midterms.

0:55

Let's start with the obvious Trump

0:57

announcement. What is your instant

0:59

reaction to what happened. I

1:01

thought it was boring, which was really surprising

1:04

to me. But something I can

1:06

Well, a, let's start with this. Never count

1:08

Trump out ever, all the way up until the

1:10

actual votes are counted. And then maybe

1:12

you're not afterwards. Number

1:14

two, I actually am increasingly

1:17

believing that the Trump announcement

1:20

while it was boring accomplished what

1:22

it needed to accomplish. So

1:24

one of the problems for Trump coming

1:26

out of the midterms obviously was

1:28

what? That the people wholesale

1:31

rejected stop the steel,

1:34

magna candidates without

1:36

Trump and

1:37

then abortion. And

1:38

so The Trump speech

1:40

is the most I've ever seen him adhere

1:42

to a prompter. It did

1:44

not mention stop the steel one time,

1:47

not once. It made vague,

1:50

you know, vague appeals

1:52

to, like, voter ID and only

1:54

paper ballots, but whatever. Okay. People are like,

1:56

stuff. No. It's generic. Everything's generic.

1:58

It's gonna save us an hour. Exactly.

1:59

That's Republican

2:01

positioning going back to, like, the Reagan

2:03

administration. And then he

2:05

didn't say a single word about

2:08

dobs, about abortion, or the

2:10

Supreme Court. And it was

2:12

boring. And actually, the real tell

2:14

to me was that Lindsey Graham

2:16

immediately after the speech tweeted

2:18

out and he was a great speech by president

2:20

Trump, you know, if this is the tone that he

2:22

keeps, he will easily win reelection

2:25

and the nomination. And I was like, you know what?

2:28

I'm increasingly believing that speech

2:30

was not for the general public. That

2:32

speech was to GOP elites and others.

2:35

to give them the capacity to

2:37

be like, see, he's acting presidential.

2:40

You know, he has learned his lesson

2:42

from the midterms. Now look, we all know. That's

2:45

not going to happen. But even

2:47

though I thought it was very lackluster, look, he still

2:49

got two years. And if you consider

2:51

it in that framework, It's possibly

2:53

a victory for him. What did you think?

2:57

Boring is exactly it. I thought

2:59

I was gonna watch the entire thing because I

3:01

was going back to twenty

3:03

fifteen. Yep. When he came down the escalator

3:06

and I was interning

3:08

back at, I

3:09

believe, AEI

3:12

back then. I remember seeing I

3:14

remember seeing him

3:17

just come down the escalator and CNN. I thought,

3:19

oh, like, this doesn't really matter.

3:21

hi We'll

3:22

get to the serious stuff. So

3:25

that was obviously a terrible take. So

3:27

I watched it.

3:29

thinking, miss' history, whether

3:31

or not he wins, we're gonna look back in

3:33

none of that. To your

3:35

point, though, I really agree

3:38

if your point around how that was clearly

3:40

just a message of normalcy, and

3:42

no matter what knows we voting based on

3:44

that statement. And to

3:46

your point too, the thing that really mattered was

3:48

that he didn't throw the temper tantrum because

3:50

that's probably what you wanted if he was a DeSantis

3:52

ally. And I think his team knows

3:54

that the pre election turn

3:56

against DeSantis was a disaster.

3:59

I think if he hadn't made the

4:02

pre election to Santa's attacks, even

4:05

the weak mid term performance wouldn't have hurt her

4:07

as much as he did. But when he set

4:09

up to Santa's as his enemy

4:12

as his opponent who was out of

4:14

line, then DeSantis is probably

4:16

one of the only big wins. Yeah. That's

4:18

right. That night, That

4:19

was a real that was a real problem. I

4:21

think

4:21

the other thing that I would just say is,

4:24

look, I'm obviously not gonna vote for

4:26

Trump in twenty twenty four.

4:29

But just speaking to, I'd say, like, the

4:31

right wing part of the audience, watching that

4:34

speech, I don't know the point of

4:36

bringing Trump. I don't know what the point of Trump bringing

4:38

Trump back would be versus DeSantis.

4:40

I don't know

4:41

if this isn't quite the way the Republican voters are thinking

4:43

about this primary, but my reaction is

4:46

Okay. This is by part of

4:48

it could sense us on China. Republicans

4:51

are now generically anti media.

4:53

desantis does his own the lips bid every few

4:55

months. I don't know quite what

4:57

the point of Trump is, especially if

4:59

he's jettisoning. stop the

5:01

steel, and there isn't any more

5:03

hinge point of history supreme

5:06

court up for grabs. So that was just

5:08

a week It was a weak argument. If if

5:10

this is the and I guess this t

5:12

to and the rat to your point,

5:14

the reason why Trump can't just stay

5:16

in this status quo and it's gonna

5:18

have to go back to being old Trump

5:20

is I don't think this Trump convincing

5:23

we can beat DeSantis. I

5:25

don't know about that. I don't think so.

5:27

I think Trump is still the favorite. I

5:29

don't believe a single one of these poll. You know, this

5:31

is a fun part. Everyone's like, look at

5:33

these GOP polls where but Santa

5:35

speeds Trump. I'm like, you mean to the ones that were

5:37

just off by fifteen points? Yes.

5:40

just clarify that for a second. Be immediately

5:42

after the midterm. Yeah. DeSantis

5:44

has jumped over -- Right. -- Trump on those boards.

5:46

That's what you're referring to. I don't

5:48

know. Specifically, polls released

5:51

by the club for growth and

5:53

other Republican pollsters. So I'm like,

5:56

look. I don't

5:57

believe any of these things. I have no idea.

5:59

I don't actually

5:59

think we know or are capable

6:02

of pulling

6:04

Republicans at all. So,

6:07

okay, now what? What do we do? It'll

6:09

be the test case. Now if I'm DeSantis, I

6:11

don't know. At the same time, I've

6:14

always thought this. I think Trump should have announced

6:16

the day that he got raided by

6:19

the FBI. That was when DeSantis

6:21

bowed, that's when Glenn Youngen bowed, every

6:23

single Republican was united. It would not have

6:25

been the best for the midterms, but it would have been the

6:27

best thing for him. The second best time to

6:29

announce was the day after the midterms. I don't even

6:31

think he should have waited until November

6:33

fifteenth. And now that he has announced

6:35

its first mover advantage. Here's

6:37

my thing with DeSantis. The longer

6:39

you wait and the more you pussyfoot

6:41

around, the more that Trump has,

6:43

both to make his argument. And also,

6:46

these people are not operating

6:48

in the framework through which they conceivably

6:50

could win. the conceivable framework

6:53

for a Mike Pence or Rhonda sent let's

6:55

not even put Mike Pence in there. Alright. It's

6:57

Rhonda sent us in there. Let's

6:59

put Robert Sanders in there, is he cannot

7:01

run against Trump. He has to run against

7:03

the media, against the democrats and make the

7:05

case that he is the best person to go

7:07

and be their their

7:09

opposition, their king. That's

7:11

not a very convincing argument

7:12

because you have now you have to beat

7:14

Trump. You have go against Trump. Here's

7:16

the other problem. The head to head

7:18

scenario, which everybody is is

7:20

envisioning, that does not appear to

7:22

be the case. AJHASASASASASASASAASASAASAASAAASA Hutchison

7:25

is a governor of Arkansas, was on

7:27

CNN this morning, saying that he would decide whether

7:29

he's gonna run by January. I think he's probably

7:31

gonna run. The media loves him and

7:33

he just diluted into thinking he could do

7:35

well. I think Larry Hogan is

7:37

likely to run, essentially

7:39

said as much. Second, and most important,

7:41

is that a key part of the coalition

7:43

that would have to go with DeSantis would

7:45

have to be evangelical voters.

7:47

Well, Mike Pence has said

7:49

that he's gonna run and Mike Pence is gonna make a very

7:51

convincing case on Dobbs and on gay marriage,

7:53

which he's very willing to stand up. He's gonna

7:56

take the Ted Cruz Coalition. I

7:58

saw a major pro life activist

7:59

actually endorse Mike Pence just

8:02

this morning.

8:02

So we're looking at the same stratified

8:05

field of two thousand and sixteen,

8:07

two thousand and fifteen, maybe not as

8:09

many candidates, but enough major candidates.

8:12

And in that environment, DeSantis,

8:14

there an oath also Trump has been on

8:16

the stage for seven years. Everyone

8:19

keeps saying he's thirty percent No. I think

8:21

it's much higher than that now. I think he's

8:23

forty five, fifty. There are people who are

8:25

still very, very loyal. to Trump. So

8:27

anyway, I don't think also,

8:30

it's saying it's gonna run. Where's your

8:32

organization? Your former campaign

8:34

manager, that lady, Susie, She

8:36

works for Trump. She's his

8:38

national go to work director already

8:40

already locked in. That's not a coincidence,

8:42

by the way. He doesn't have a lot

8:44

of political consultants he doesn't have

8:46

an outside Super PAC. I don't think

8:48

it helps that the only

8:50

people who are vociferously defending

8:52

him are the GameStop

8:54

guy, Ken Griffin, and

8:56

who? This is the funny thing too.

8:58

DeSantis is so far only major

9:00

backer, Ken Griffin, was speaking in

9:02

Singapore whenever he said that

9:04

DeSantis needs to run against Trump

9:06

because Trump is a three time loser. And in

9:08

the very same sentence, said that

9:10

we need to stop our trade war with China. So

9:12

I'm like, okay. Well, you know, these

9:14

are the people who are for him. I

9:17

I don't see it. I

9:19

I just don't see that scenario

9:21

right now. And Marshall actually stole this from

9:23

you. I don't think GOP voters give a shit about

9:25

the electability. I think they will

9:27

explain this. I think they I think they

9:29

love the the game. You

9:31

know? Yeah. So the the con the context

9:33

of the electability, this is something we're talking

9:35

about during the breaking points live

9:37

mid term show. Look, a lot of people like to say,

9:39

Democrats or Republicans, it's all the same,

9:41

but actually, in primaries.

9:44

Democratic based voters or Republican based

9:46

voters just have fleet me

9:48

different rubrics or assume looking at their

9:50

candidates. So if you are

9:52

a independent voter,

9:55

if you are a Republican, you're gonna look at the twenty

9:57

twenty Democratic primary and

9:59

say, how did Joe Biden

10:01

become the nominee?

10:04

You had put you know

10:06

what your thoughts about people to judge aside?

10:08

You had young peed. You had young

10:10

peed. you had, Kala,

10:13

you had Elizabeth Warren,

10:15

Amy, flowchart, like

10:17

Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand,

10:19

countless numbers of

10:21

politicians that I think had stronger

10:23

narratives. And Joe Biden is going into

10:25

that primary -- Mhmm. -- who I think

10:27

added pure charisma level or more

10:29

compelling, and then there's just the obvious age

10:31

issue. So why would that party select

10:33

Joe Biden? And then, yeah, Bernie

10:36

Sanders coming from his

10:38

really impressive second place in

10:40

twenty sixteen. It's because there was

10:42

one issue that the majority of

10:44

Democratic voters were voting on in twenty twenty,

10:46

and that was electability. It

10:48

wasn't who sets my heart a flutter It

10:50

wasn't who has the best vision for

10:52

America. It wasn't, wow,

10:55

I'm thinking America needs to be a little

10:57

more left then center laughter of the Green New Deal.

10:59

It was literally just electability. And

11:01

frankly, I'm not even using this

11:03

as an attack on Biden to argue that he

11:05

wasn't substantive. when he's

11:07

just running on the electability because I think

11:09

this is what the key skill in

11:11

politics are. It's actually understanding where

11:13

the electorate was at. So Biden

11:15

understood that the way he'd become president

11:17

and with by winning the nomination was

11:19

it by issuing the edgiest white

11:21

papers or getting the hippest coolest

11:24

green new dealiest modern

11:26

monetary theorist figures on

11:28

your panel, and it was literally just,

11:30

hey, we know you guys

11:32

as Democrat voters bake up every

11:34

single day thinking, oh my god. If Trump

11:36

is president in twenty twenty one, I'm

11:38

gonna have the worst four years of my I'm gonna argue

11:40

many of the person who could beat it. If

11:42

Rhonda Santos were running under

11:45

a Democratic

11:46

Party or if if the Republican

11:48

party were like the Democratic Party, I would a

11:50

hundred percent bet on Ron DeSantis

11:52

then because think of your campaign campaign

11:54

argument, three time loser.

11:56

if the twenty twenty

11:59

Democrats were faced with Biden

12:01

losing a presidential election,

12:03

causing midterm losses, losing

12:05

the popular vote, he be pushed to

12:07

the side. But the electorates are just so different. So

12:09

here's the question, like, what do you think we're public and

12:12

vote? We see a decent decent

12:14

enough percentage. what decent enough percentage of

12:16

the Republican party actually

12:18

voting based on? Okay.

12:20

Well, I would actually point

12:22

to and that's what I'm looking for

12:24

right now. Richard Hanaemia's

12:26

twenty twenty presidential

12:29

election takeaways. I'm trying

12:31

to find a post but obviously

12:33

it's been like two years. But

12:35

I would encourage people to go and to

12:37

look at that. And one of the things that

12:40

Richard found out in that, like,

12:42

retrospective was

12:44

that Republican

12:47

voters were motivated almost

12:49

entirely by hatred of

12:51

the media. And, you know, for a

12:53

long time, people were unable to

12:55

square this. They're like, oh,

12:57

Well, Trump was first, but who came in second,

12:59

Marshall? Who was the fourth person? Thank

13:02

you. Now they don't have anything

13:04

in common. on policy,

13:06

but why? Because the

13:08

establishment hated Ted Cruz,

13:10

second only to how much they hated

13:12

Trump.

13:12

So why does that matter?

13:14

Well, that means that the only currency that

13:16

matters to voters is how much the left hates

13:18

you. That's part of the reason why I don't think DeSantis.

13:20

could could be Trump. Because one of the things

13:22

that people love about Trump is how much he's

13:25

hated by everybody, not by how much he's loved,

13:27

but how much he's hated. Remember this?

13:30

Trump consistently gets one of the

13:32

lowest approval ratings of any political

13:34

actor in all of American politics.

13:36

But it's precisely the people who hate

13:38

him by having the right enemies that a

13:40

lot of people are willing to hold their nose and to

13:42

vote for him. Well, I think that is

13:44

the single most important factor in a

13:46

GOP primary. And I would

13:48

encourage maybe we can go people go back. Actually, we

13:50

did an interview with Richard right after the election. People

13:52

should go listen to it. It was like two years

13:54

ago. And things that came through

13:56

was that, look, I would love for it to be

13:58

economics. I really would, but it's

14:00

not. It is almost entirely

14:02

centered around I'll

14:04

put this kindly, changing

14:06

culture for older boomer

14:08

whites, and the

14:11

media, hatred of the left.

14:13

So in that here's

14:15

another, I think, important point for

14:17

GOP primary voters. They you

14:19

know that a whole saying like Democrats vote

14:21

their heart, and even like

14:23

Republicans whatever. I forgot

14:25

exactly what it is. Well, you know,

14:27

Republicans did actually

14:29

not go with their heart. in

14:31

twenty twelve. The pitch

14:33

by the GOP elite was

14:35

that Mitt Romney, I know he's Mormon.

14:37

It's weird. I know that you

14:39

don't love him. I know he wasn't

14:41

with us on Obamacare, but

14:43

guys, he speaks well and he's

14:46

electable. And a lot of people said,

14:48

okay, screw

14:48

it. I'll vote

14:49

from it. I'll

14:51

backmit. Well then,

14:53

meant lost. That's part of the

14:55

reason. That's a big key part of the story about

14:57

why people back Trump. And

14:59

then, this is what GOP elites will never be

15:01

able to square with. The one time

15:03

that they did in modern you

15:05

know, basically modern history since Reagan, Trump

15:09

wins. He wins against hillery.

15:11

So a lot of these people don't have the same amount

15:13

of credibility that the

15:15

demo leads did on electability. Vrzevi

15:18

of the vis à vis

15:20

Biden. And I think that you

15:22

put all that together. Oh, also, it

15:24

matters who votes. Remember this? even

15:27

J. D. Vance and his autopsy

15:29

retrospective about what went wrong is

15:31

he was like, look, like,

15:33

DEMS now have the highest propensity

15:35

voters as in people who vote all the

15:37

time. Well, if that's the case, that's actually

15:39

terrible for people who are Republicans

15:41

specifically advancing an electability

15:43

argument because by definition,

15:45

low propensity voters. They don't give a shit about

15:47

electability. They give a shit about oh,

15:49

really even institutions or the democratic

15:52

process. they're not like bought into the

15:54

system. They're coming in because they

15:56

like somebody or because they hate

15:58

somebody else, in my opinion, hate

16:00

on the Republican side. Again, all

16:02

of these occurrences in the

16:04

Trump basket. Now look, a lot of things a lot of the

16:06

crazy shit could happen. Trump could get indicted, although

16:08

I think that'd be good for him. I think it'd be

16:11

best outcome for him actually. Trump could,

16:14

look, he's old man. Some

16:17

people were speculating that from

16:19

his speech, was it's been seven years since

16:21

that escalator. That's a long ass time when you're

16:23

seventy eight year old. There's a lot of things

16:25

that could happen. But look, where I'm

16:27

standing right now, I don't see it.

16:29

Yeah. Let's talk to the midterms

16:32

autopsy aspect.

16:34

There was a

16:36

lot of coke on

16:38

the Internet in the wake of

16:40

the midterms, I think that's The hope that

16:43

I was most frustrated by

16:45

was just the the

16:47

number one thing Josh Hammer of

16:49

Newsweek published tweet, the number one thing

16:51

Republicans have to focus on.

16:53

is the male in ballots.

16:56

It should be election day,

16:58

not election month. What do I find to

17:00

be so dumb about this take?

17:02

Let's bracket this into two different areas. So

17:04

number one. A,

17:07

Republicans didn't lose because

17:11

Democrats

17:11

have some month

17:12

long voting conspiracy,

17:16

mail

17:16

in ballot

17:17

disaster. So the idea that that is your number

17:19

one area of focus for the next two

17:22

years is just a miscalculation of what's

17:24

actually going on here. But

17:26

then two, to your point,

17:28

Sager, when you're describing how stopped the

17:30

steel was disastrous for

17:32

Republican candidates.

17:34

Guys, new right people who think that

17:36

the election integrity directions

17:38

in effective way for the party to go for the

17:40

next two years Look, the number that we

17:42

learned from the Trump era is that DC

17:45

based or Miami based

17:48

elites have zero control

17:50

or any part of this process. So let's talk

17:52

this out here. The big

17:54

new right national conservative DC

17:56

pro Trump apparatus declares that

17:58

the number one issue of focus is

17:59

elections and making sure they're just

18:02

completely secure.

18:04

There's

18:04

a clean version of that. There's a version of

18:06

that that you can you and I could articulate that

18:08

wouldn't be inherently offensive.

18:10

Is it even spiracy minded and frankly people just really

18:13

identify with it. Okay.

18:15

What's actually going to happen? What's actually going

18:17

to happen is that it will you'll you'll

18:20

try to have that cleaned up version, it will get

18:22

bastardized and to stop the steel within two

18:24

seconds. Correct. Carry Lake is not gonna

18:26

stop the Carry Lake's of the world.

18:28

the Doug Mastriana's of the world are not

18:31

gonna stop at your DC approved

18:34

edgy, right, but ultimately

18:36

safe, they're gonna go and you're gonna have a repeated twenty twenty

18:38

two all over again. What what do you think

18:40

about this dynamic? Yeah. I completely

18:43

agree. I think it's the

18:45

biggest hope of all time. They just don't want

18:47

to admit the following, that a, a

18:49

lot of MAGA candidates were

18:51

shit candidates. B. Actually, let me

18:53

just find Ross Douthats

18:55

summary of this. Although, I also think

18:57

Ross is downplaying abortion for

18:59

his own personal reasons.

19:02

He says there is no need to choose a single

19:04

scapegoat. Republicans can have

19:06

simultaneous problems, which is a poly crisis.

19:08

Number one, Trump's toxicity. Number

19:10

two, The base is preference for unelectable candidates.

19:13

Number three, the unpopularity of

19:15

full pro life position post

19:17

jobs and number four, a lack of a

19:19

middle friendly economic agenda.

19:21

And I think that is possibly the

19:23

best way to put it. I read Sean Treadies

19:26

analysis about what happened. I think that's

19:28

also very spot on.

19:30

But, you know, people keep talking about the

19:32

popular vote. And he's really annoying the crap

19:34

out of me. whenever it comes

19:36

to whenever it comes to

19:38

midterms because when did the

19:40

popular vote matter for

19:42

by definition geographically distributed

19:45

regional districts.

19:47

That literally doesn't matter. The only

19:49

thing that matters is, like the electoral

19:52

college, where you get the votes. So if you

19:54

get a massive run up in

19:56

Florida, who gives a shit? a shit Like,

19:59

if Ohio and Michigan or sorry,

20:01

if Michigan and Wisconsin

20:03

go overwhelmingly blue. Well, okay,

20:05

now you have a real problem. And

20:07

same with Arizona. same with

20:09

Georgia. So real I think you're going to put really with Arizona

20:12

and Georgia because those are the states where Republicans

20:14

can't wait. That's why I'm like

20:16

put enough with the

20:18

popular vote. Like, this is the same thing that the

20:20

demos do. Look, people, electoral

20:22

college, ain't going anywhere. So

20:24

regional variation is the only thing that we can all

20:26

care about. Alright? Well, then in that

20:28

environment, I think it matters a hell of a

20:30

lot. Now, I personally think

20:32

that abortion is just way more

20:34

important than most of

20:36

the commentary is taken credit for. There's this

20:38

weird, leftist, or

20:40

not leftist, like, liberal want to

20:43

make this like a referendum on

20:45

January six I'm I'm not gonna say that

20:47

that isn't the case, but I think that stop

20:49

this deal has a lot more to do with it.

20:51

And then on the right, of course, they

20:53

don't wanna admit. that Dobbs

20:55

was tremendously unpopular. How else do you lose abortion

20:58

referendums in Kansas and Kentucky?

21:00

Like, get out here or and

21:02

Michigan. as well, which is a straight up

21:04

swing signal for example. was also the Montana. There

21:06

was also the Montana right in front of two.

21:08

Right. Yeah. Exactly. Montana, one of

21:10

the most conservative states in the

21:12

entire country. Like, okay, good luck, you know, for the people

21:14

who are claiming all this, so they have to come

21:16

to this fake ballot harvesting excuse.

21:19

It's genuinely pathetic. So

21:22

One quick thing. This was my -- Yeah. -- JDJD

21:25

Vance did a post election

21:27

analysis, and he was focusing

21:29

on the money gap.

21:31

as a serious issue. We didn't raise

21:33

enough money. Democrats raised a lot

21:35

of money. My perspective,

21:38

from a strategic perspective is it's not

21:40

helpful to focus on issues. that

21:42

enable you to cope before

21:44

your actual problem is. And

21:46

the actual problem, if you

21:48

are a Republican strategist going into twenty

21:50

twenty four, assuming Trump is your

21:52

president, is that there

21:54

are two specific issues to your point

21:56

soccer abortion And

21:58

instead of the one modification I'd give to

22:00

your January six topless deal statement is

22:02

when there was an election denier

22:04

on the ballots. Yeah. That's Right.

22:06

The democracy argument really, really, really worked. And I

22:08

think I and I entirely I I freaking

22:10

agree with that argument. Like, the things

22:13

that Cary Lake and Doug Laschano were saying we're in excuseable,

22:15

Blake Laschos. Blake Laschos. Blake Laschos. Yeah. I'll say

22:17

too. Doug Laschos. like Blake Laschos.

22:20

constantly saying that, you know, we're seeing pissing people off, like new

22:22

right members of the audience. But when Blake Masters

22:24

did that ad, saying Donald Trump

22:26

won. It's like, okay. Dude, you deserve to lose.

22:29

There was no reason to do that. It

22:31

didn't make any sense. It wasn't helpful. It

22:33

did that ad. It didn't even start raising in the

22:35

polls until, like, months later after, like, money

22:38

came in. it was it was it was it was literally

22:40

just kind of this look at I

22:42

can do trying to show

22:44

things off. I I think the thing

22:46

every way to think about, it's, you know, you and I really

22:48

dunk on the old

22:49

world establishment

22:51

ties. But something I think

22:54

people from that very practical world understood

22:56

is that politics is not

22:58

the area where you're supposed to

23:00

come out and show off your

23:03

edgy takes or deal with

23:05

your personal problems or work

23:07

through your emotions or anger. It's just

23:09

something deeply practical. And that was

23:11

clearly forgotten. Let me also say

23:13

this. I love JD. It's

23:15

been good to me, but I'm

23:17

telling you, I think that

23:20

that op ed is just

23:22

fundamentally wrong,

23:23

right because

23:24

the headline is don't blame

23:27

Trump. and the entire thesis is we got

23:29

outraised. Well, actually, if your

23:31

problem is money, Trump is the

23:33

single biggest obstacle he

23:35

steals all of the money. If

23:37

you look at his fundraising

23:40

yeah. If

23:40

you look at the okay.

23:41

So save America PAC. If you are

23:43

unfortunate like me and you monitor these emails

23:45

and get these things. What do they

23:47

say if they're like, click here to, you know,

23:49

stick it to the radical left against

23:52

Tim Ryan. And when you do, like, ninety percent

23:54

of the money goes to Trump. So if you're

23:56

mad at if you're mad about money, it's

23:58

because Trump literally stole all the money.

24:00

even right now. There's emails going on right now for

24:02

Hershel Walker. Hershel Walker literally gets like

24:04

a dime for every ten dollars.

24:07

that you die. I saw this screenshot on Twitter. It was just

24:09

on Twitter. It was a good One sec. You're

24:11

going. And find it. When

24:12

you're when you're articulating the the

24:15

Trump thing, Yeah.

24:17

Another

24:17

way to articulate JD saying is,

24:19

wow, there's something in

24:21

the air -- Yeah.

24:22

-- unlike previous eras of American

24:25

history, gets

24:25

democratic voters incredibly

24:27

excited. And totally because, like, what what

24:29

what happened in twenty ten?

24:32

Democrats? They

24:33

voted for Obama. They got their

24:35

hopi change to make a Sarah Palin

24:37

reference now that she's finally gone

24:39

from her politics. losing

24:42

the congressional election

24:44

in Alaska, they

24:47

left.

24:47

You know, it's

24:48

the line was, okay, we we voted

24:50

for Obama. We've got change now, and then they didn't show

24:52

up in the midterms. In the twenty

24:53

twenty two midterms,

24:55

democrats showed up. There was

24:57

energy, the money was there. And that's because

24:59

of Trump. So even like when you articulated

25:01

when you articulated soccer, just

25:04

Stepping

25:04

out of your way to just excuse

25:06

Trump from things isn't

25:08

actual strategic thought or analysis and

25:10

doesn't actually signify an accounting with the

25:12

with the problem. What annoyed me about the

25:14

J. D. autopsy was

25:17

that he's just trying to suck up the Trump.

25:19

And, like, look, that's fine. I get it. I don't

25:21

understand how politics works. All he wanted is for

25:23

somebody some dumbass to print that out

25:25

and give it to Trump and he'll sign it and be

25:27

like, JD, so true.

25:30

sign Trump and then mail him back.

25:32

Wait. Sorry. Wait. Pause that. Sorry to interrupt. Can you

25:34

make clear that you're you're being

25:36

literal when you're telling this story? No. You

25:38

have to this this this is actually

25:40

-- Oh, yeah. -- people don't realize this. This is

25:42

literally how it works. Like, what happens is

25:44

that Trump people, his advisers,

25:46

can print out articles with

25:49

headlines that he likes, and then he'll

25:51

sign them and be like, he did this with

25:53

Litch Rich Lowry was. And he was

25:55

like, Rich, so true, and then

25:57

mailed it mailed copy.

25:59

because Trump doesn't use email or

26:01

an iPad. Okay. And look,

26:04

like, I

26:05

get it. Alright?

26:06

Like, JDS

26:08

play the game. He's a newly elected senator,

26:10

Trump lilly and saved his ass and doors

26:12

him. all good. But as

26:14

a piece of descriptive analysis, I thought

26:16

it was dog shit and I thought it was bullshit.

26:18

And again, it's like, You

26:20

can't say don't blame Trump and then say that's a money

26:22

problem when Trump literally sucked up over a

26:24

hundred billion dollars and then didn't spend most of

26:26

it on the candidates that he backed in

26:29

those races. I would if

26:31

I was you know, this is the other thing Blake Masters. Blake Masters playing Mitch McConnell.

26:33

Really? You should blame him Trump. Trump is

26:35

a guy who had your back

26:37

who endorsed you. and then didn't

26:39

spend a ton of money behind you.

26:42

What? What is that? Mitch McConnell gave

26:44

him what? Millions of dollars. in

26:46

that race. And actually, if

26:48

you look at it, Mitch wasn't wrong

26:50

about your so called contestability.

26:52

What's what's the final margin in

26:55

Arizona? in the Arizona senate race.

26:57

How much came out? why why you're

26:59

getting that? You know, the there was a New

27:01

York That's a lot. That's a lot of

27:03

points. He lost by five points.

27:05

Yeah. And they quote and they, you know and look, they they

27:07

quoted this in the New York

27:09

Times, like, post op in the race. One of

27:11

the economist people have said that, like,

27:14

literally focused group as one

27:16

of the worst candidates that he'd ever surveyed

27:18

and say we want to miss Wuhano's team if there's

27:20

one thing they do, It's a hell

27:22

of a lot of Hocus groups over

27:25

the past two decades. So the key thing here

27:27

is really

27:29

separating it it

27:31

feels like the the whole point

27:33

if you're on the right over the past two

27:35

years has really been. Oh, wow.

27:37

you know, we survived January

27:40

six. Joe Biden is struggling.

27:42

He's underwater popularity wise.

27:44

We can do whatever we want.

27:46

You watch the ads Blake was

27:49

putting out, you look at some of JD's more

27:51

extreme statements, you look at the

27:53

nominations of Kerry Lake and Doug Bastiano,

27:55

and the key take is Wow.

27:57

It's just like two thousand nine.

27:59

We could do anything. The next two years because

28:01

I don't wanna get to the last fifteen minutes of audience

28:03

questions. The next two years, numerically, you're

28:05

going to be Okay, how do

28:07

we actually operate in non

28:10

favorable conditions? Because frankly,

28:12

I have no reason to not

28:14

assume that

28:16

things will consider

28:16

considerably change.

28:18

Considering these tensions.

28:20

Mhmm. So I

28:21

wanna just Let's

28:22

get to the first question. So this

28:25

is actually related to the JD

28:27

question. Why did

28:29

JD Vance underperform as someone who was a big

28:31

JD Vance, if we were to call six. I was

28:33

surprised to see him struggle in the election. He

28:35

won by underperform and based on everything

28:37

I've heard. Whatting this is and what does

28:39

it bode for the National Conservative wing

28:42

of the Republican Party? Well,

28:44

that's interesting. Okay. So first, let's

28:46

actually test that thesis. So JD

28:48

got fifty three point three percent

28:50

of the vote. Tim Ryan

28:52

got forty six point seven

28:55

percent. JD beating by six point

28:57

six, and that Trump won that

28:59

state by eight points. So

29:01

did he underperform? relative to the governor. I think

29:03

I think he'd probably say

29:05

Right. I'm not

29:06

sure if that's so fair, though, because we talked to

29:08

the governor. The tone would say he underperformed

29:11

relative to the governor. But

29:13

I think what you're bringing out soccer

29:15

is that the underperform you know you know, here's

29:17

what I think happened. JD was obviously

29:19

not doing his role in the polls as his

29:21

final result happened. Yeah. So you

29:23

saw folks merge together

29:25

Tim Ryan over performing

29:28

in polls with what actually happened,

29:30

where it seems Yes. already where they were gonna actually had always

29:32

ended up. I don't think it's a fair enough

29:34

interpretation because the gubernatorial race

29:36

was quite separate from the NASH political

29:38

environment on this one, of which Tim Ryan and

29:40

JD Vance were obviously running within.

29:42

So the go gubernatorial, I think, should

29:44

be set aside on this particular

29:47

one. And look, Ohio

29:49

was not a swing was a swing state,

29:51

not that long ago. So I got the twenty

29:53

sixteen margin in front of me. Trump

29:55

only won fifty one point three to Hillary's

29:57

forty three point two four. He

29:59

increased that mark. That was in twenty sixteen.

30:01

He increased that margin in

30:04

twenty twenty. but Barack Obama

30:06

won it twice from two thousand and eight

30:08

to two thousand and twelve, and also

30:10

George w Bush, I

30:12

believe, won it in two thousand and

30:14

four. I wanna say. So

30:16

why does that matter? Which is,

30:18

well, it's also a state last

30:20

time I checked with a Democratic

30:23

senator named Sherrod Brown. Now,

30:25

Tim Ryan did his best to

30:27

try and capture some of that Sherritt

30:29

brown energy so you had a good

30:32

candidate or a better candidate on

30:34

the one side. And then, you know,

30:36

in a basically blue wave election,

30:38

I guess we can say

30:40

that now. A blue wave election

30:43

JD Underperformed Trump by one

30:45

point two points. That's not

30:47

terrible. So, you know, I'm not so ready to

30:49

dance on JD's grave for the whole,

30:51

like, he underperformed just

30:53

because people are comparing him to Mike

30:55

DeWine. I mean Mike DeWine, again,

30:57

like, he has to run really only on

30:59

his record on COVID of which

31:01

he did. a pretty good job.

31:03

And, you know, by and large, didn't have a real

31:05

contestable candidate on the other side,

31:07

so it's not necessarily a

31:09

surprise. I don't know. What do you think, Marshall? Do you

31:11

think he underperformed? I don't I don't really think it's

31:13

fair to say that. You know, I I

31:15

completely agree with everything you

31:18

just said. Wets not get the polls confused. And also too

31:20

on the governor's point, apparently not a

31:22

single governor, loss

31:24

reelection -- Mhmm. -- this year.

31:26

So this if there was a year to be governor No. Wait.

31:28

You're Nevada might have, actually. Nevada might

31:30

have. Okay. So I think it's which. Yeah.

31:32

Governor governor's performed pretty well this year.

31:35

just not shocking. You know, as

31:37

we we've talked about, you know, that may need to kind

31:39

of revise our generic convention request

31:41

for our politics not being local.

31:43

Governors

31:43

Chris, I'm gonna talk about this.

31:45

Yeah. Governors talented

31:47

governors

31:47

have clearly been able to edge

31:51

out their own little fiefdoms.

31:53

Yeah. Larry Hogan would have

31:56

won again Charlie Baker -- Yeah. --

31:58

Massachusetts would have won again

32:00

It's kind of funny the northeast is kind of becoming like a modern

32:02

Republican haven. That's clearly

32:04

a separation there. So we should think of representing that

32:06

narrative. I wanna focus on the second part

32:08

of the question. What does this mean

32:11

for national conservatism?

32:14

Look, I think the very obvious

32:16

generic take here is that

32:18

national conservatism that

32:20

that being the new right trying

32:22

to turn Trump's insights from

32:24

twenty sixteen into

32:26

a economic, into a into a

32:29

serious project, I think in I think in good faith, sometimes people just kind of like

32:31

dunk on it from like the center left. III

32:33

take it seriously. It

32:35

doesn't work as a

32:38

it well, let me put it this way. I think national

32:41

conservatism could be a useful framework for

32:43

actually governing a country.

32:46

Trump,

32:46

I think would

32:47

have been better served by applying

32:50

national

32:50

conservative insights during

32:53

twenty sixteen or twenty twenty than he was, you know,

32:55

and by being Gary Cohn thought.

32:58

But there's a difference between

33:00

governing and actual campaigns. Yeah.

33:02

Seriously, like, not sure if it's harp on JD op, but

33:04

we just know JD's thought. Don't

33:06

forget, JD started the

33:08

twenty twenty primary by talking

33:11

about how was gonna raise

33:13

taxes on upper middle class Liberals.

33:15

Like, this was a this was a this

33:17

was a national conservative

33:19

talking point. this idea of, like,

33:21

punishing your enemies, this idea of,

33:23

like, focusing on the working class part of the

33:25

GOP coalition, and he

33:27

dropped it for a reason. it

33:29

wasn't convincing as

33:31

political rhetoric or an

33:33

underlying convincing philosophy.

33:35

So the the real problem here is that the national

33:37

conservatives, I just don't think they have

33:39

a useful edition beyond

33:42

just the average. of

33:45

any GOP candidate. piano Look,

33:47

I agree with

33:48

you. I've effectively thought

33:49

the dream was dead since Trump in

33:52

twenty twenty. He won ten million votes

33:54

people. He did two things. He let drug dealers out

33:56

of prison and he cut taxes for

33:58

rich people. So You tell

34:00

me whether, like, by that

34:03

thesis, then he should have lost

34:05

votes in Ohio. He actually increased votes. He

34:07

actually increased votes in the union. places.

34:09

He did not pick up. He didn't lose.

34:11

He paid no price for

34:14

his very typical

34:16

twenty seventeen tax agenda. I think

34:18

it's a very strong lesson that people, honestly, at least

34:21

a lot of GOP voters, really don't give

34:23

a shit at all, and even some

34:25

independent voters as well. and in

34:27

a culture first environment, that

34:30

communism effectively became,

34:32

we're gonna use the state to

34:34

crush our liberal enemies. And

34:36

I mean, okay. Again, like I again,

34:39

you know, like you said,

34:42

I think it's back maybe, that's how you can run a country.

34:44

But I'm not so sure

34:45

that voters all care

34:46

that much. And if anything,

34:50

they

34:50

kind of found themselves on very contradictory

34:52

sides of social issues. And

34:54

then further, they were

34:56

not really keeping with the quasi

35:00

libertarian kind of spirit

35:02

of a lot of new GOP energy.

35:04

We've talked a lot here about the bar so

35:06

conservative thesis and all of

35:08

that, but take a look at

35:10

all the people voting for Iran DeSantis. I mean, and even his own, like,

35:12

coalition. I've always found

35:13

it

35:14

odd that natcon's seem

35:17

to really like Ron DeSantis. When

35:20

Ron DeSantis hasn't done anything

35:22

from my estimation on

35:24

any, like, major nat con ground other

35:26

than what, like, the

35:28

CRT bill

35:30

or or the

35:32

CRT bill, the yeah. That's

35:34

right. On an economics of five I can't take a

35:36

single one. Right. You know what I mean? I

35:38

was like, through what end. It's So

35:41

so this is

35:42

your point then. It's affect.

35:44

Yeah. And you don't

35:48

need to Okay. You know, it had

35:50

Sohrab Mar on the podcast and, you know, he's

35:52

talking how the GOP needs to be, like, much more

35:54

labor friendly and always, like, push the

35:56

GOP towards the left

35:58

direction economically. the year Yeah.

36:00

Just no actual

36:00

evidence. Was again, that could be a good policy

36:02

for him. I was gonna say, I agree with him. Oh,

36:04

I could go. But I actually don't

36:07

see any actual evidence. that

36:08

that's a compelling political program. So, yeah, this is this is

36:10

a this is a problem for the National Reserve

36:13

side. We're gonna get to one other

36:15

question because this is

36:18

One other question then will just wrap real quick.

36:20

Crime as an issue in

36:22

the midterm. Shortening the person's question,

36:24

but basically the person said What

36:28

happened with crime in the midterms?

36:30

Actually, let me merge these two questions

36:32

together. Got two questions. One about crime in

36:34

theterms of the right inflation. Why did they

36:36

not work? These two narratives were supposed to

36:38

help Republicans in the midterms?

36:40

Like, what do you think soccer? abortion

36:42

was big. exit polls out of the state

36:44

of Pennsylvania so that abortion mattered more than inflation by twelve points.

36:46

Pretty simple. abortion was just

36:48

a hell of a lot more important.

36:51

And look, the thing

36:53

with crime is you gotta believe that

36:55

who you're electing is not fucking

36:57

crazy. And it has like

36:59

a real ability to

37:02

effectively govern. And I think

37:04

that many of the GOP candidates

37:06

were not able to project that

37:08

message, which is you know, people

37:10

did not feel like people should really

37:12

go back and study Giuliani. You know,

37:14

he wasn't the crazy guy that he is

37:16

today. Like, he

37:18

projected calm measure of confidence in declaring war on

37:20

crime and, like, cleaning up the streets. Like, is

37:22

that what you got out of Doug Mastriano and

37:24

doctor Oz?

37:26

Like, you know, who on who is on the opposition? And the

37:28

message of the message of, like,

37:30

what I'm gonna do about crime? And can

37:33

I effectively manage crime is

37:35

just as important as being weak on crime, quote unquote.

37:38

So we'll see.

37:39

Yeah. And

37:41

in the i we're

37:43

doing lots of, like, harping on

37:45

the GOP today, obviously, but I think that's

37:47

that's the issue at hand right now. Have a

37:49

GOP reality to these results. You

37:52

know, whoever runs the

37:54

House Judiciary Account on Twitter on the

37:56

Republican side if that was a good idea to tweet

37:58

about the investigations into

38:00

Hunter Biden's laptop is not getting the

38:03

memo regarding

38:04

these issues. Mhmm. It's just it's

38:06

just wowed me that it really feels like we're

38:08

just gonna do a repeat of

38:11

twenty ten to twenty twelve, but

38:14

as if Democrats over performed in the

38:16

twenty ten midterms. Right.

38:18

Yeah. And I think you're right. On the other end look, the other issue

38:20

that the person is asking Why didn't the

38:22

inflation This is Matthew from the

38:24

substack. Why didn't the inflation message

38:26

work? I don't think vote I genuinely don't

38:28

think voters genuinely

38:30

thought Republicans had a broad answer to inflation.

38:32

That was popular or

38:35

compelling enough to overwhelm the

38:38

abortion and in context

38:40

democracy issues. My takeaway on inflation is

38:42

that voters were willing to buy the

38:44

Biden administration's explanation

38:46

that it was structural and it was not because

38:48

of them. So I wouldn't even say that

38:50

necessarily it's about what people

38:52

are gonna do about it. but they weren't

38:55

willing to play the blame game. And this kind of gets back to what we're talking

38:57

about crime. Like, just being like, crime is bad,

38:59

and they're aligned with crime. Like,

39:01

that's not enough. in order

39:04

to say, like, I'm gonna trust you

39:06

that you were not responsible for

39:08

said action even if I agree with you

39:10

that it's bad. Does that make sense? Yeah.

39:12

I know. And I think that this is probably a

39:14

good development from Oh, I think it's

39:16

great. Yeah. I think it's guys.

39:19

Look, the

39:19

the broad story of the country the past fifty years who

39:21

and I constantly harp on this is just that the

39:24

Panama has just swung

39:26

between both parties, you

39:28

know, Reagan will have a landslide election

39:30

in nineteen eighty four and Democrats take the Senate back in nineteen eighty six.

39:32

This consistent inability of either soft

39:35

neither side to actually just

39:38

hold what they have because things won't be great. And people say, okay, let's

39:40

give the author side a shot. Because they

39:42

just punish Cloverhorn's power.

39:45

if we switch to a dynamic

39:46

where where voters

39:48

aren't just going to this independent swing,

39:51

voters aren't basically just gonna say, well,

39:53

we gave people a year and a half, so now we're just

39:55

gonna switch to the other side. That feels

39:57

like a productive space to

40:00

get out of. But, yeah, this is a

40:02

this is a good place to to wrap. I had to

40:04

cut this one a little shorter. We're

40:06

into the holiday season, obviously. I

40:08

hope everyone has a great

40:10

Thanksgiving week, but soccer. This was

40:12

very fun and folks definitely check

40:14

out the Supercast and the

40:16

sub stack that's coming out later today. If you

40:18

have any additional thoughts, happy to follow-up

40:20

on those.

40:20

Alright.

40:21

See you

40:23

guys later.

40:24

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40:27

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40:29

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40:29

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