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Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Released Sunday, 18th February 2024
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Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Saagar & Marshall Supercast AMA & Discussion Preview: Apple Vision Pro Review, Will AI Video Kill Hollywood?, What We're Reading, Good Vibes, Bad Policy, and More...

Sunday, 18th February 2024
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Episode Transcript

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0:00

Marshall and Soccer here! Welcome back

0:02

to the it. Realignments,

0:04

Ask me Anything It Discussion Series: Sorry

0:06

for the pause last week and Cyrus

0:08

on the road and I was moving

0:10

to my new house so it was

0:13

the definition of not at high and

0:15

a the was gonna come together, but

0:17

we're to make up for it with

0:19

a great conversation here. Quick reminder: If

0:21

you'd like to get access to the

0:23

full version of this conversation, you go

0:25

to Realignment.super cast.com or clicked the link

0:27

The topic show notes: Five a month,

0:29

fifty year, or five hundred for a

0:31

lifetime membership. So let's jump into the.

0:33

Free section. This was originally a question

0:35

for see was gassed Subscribers only by

0:37

know ever wants to hear this Once

0:40

you start year soccer, your app or

0:42

vision Rao review I got a bunch

0:44

of emails about this. People want a

0:46

failure? Give us Yes People were like

0:48

the second they saw your tweets. They

0:50

are like makes soccer. Towers.

0:52

His perspective: it's your show. Go for.

0:54

Give us the for scope. That's why

0:57

I did a video with Crystal. I

0:59

actually it's funny. Ah, because today at

1:01

Friday's my day off. I probably war

1:03

it for four hours this morning. So.

1:06

You can probably even still see the the

1:08

mark on my forehead. I'm from wearing it

1:10

all got I will guys. I'm leaning and

1:13

we don't publish video. I can see the

1:15

markers or that sorry sir, it's the seal.

1:17

Ah I Friday. My thing lately has been

1:19

waking up in watching Masters of the Air

1:22

because it gets released on Fridays which is

1:24

an Apple Tv. I will tell you guys

1:26

watching Apple Tv specifically. I wish they had

1:29

been or content inside. Vision Pro is so

1:31

incredible because they have something called cinema mode

1:33

where you literally feel like you are in

1:35

the. Cinema you the you can even select

1:37

the seat they are sitting in and I

1:40

had it set as middle row and I

1:42

was sitting in my living room. Everything is

1:44

completely blacked out on watching this World War

1:46

Two you know. highly produced show. I was

1:48

absolutely incredible. Ah I see it was able

1:50

to watch Netflix or just use the browser.

1:52

Been catching up on that. It was awesome.

1:54

I can actually singed a video of you

1:56

Want Arm. of this morning us

1:58

into one of our mutual friends of me just

2:01

like watching television catching up on email I

2:03

had a calendar which I have some meetings

2:05

that are after this as well and then

2:07

I was also monitoring Twitter at the same

2:09

time so I really really enjoy it. I

2:11

know there have been some people who have been

2:14

returning it for pain reasons but honestly like here's

2:16

the thing if you were expecting to wear this

2:18

thing 12 hours a day like I don't know

2:20

who's told you this is gonna be a phone

2:22

I don't know who did not notify you that

2:25

this is not a first generation

2:27

product I use it fully aware

2:29

of that I've had 100x

2:31

experience it with

2:33

it especially on the plane I love

2:36

love wearing it on the plane but actually what I

2:38

found is I don't love it I love it a

2:41

ton on the plane I love it even more in

2:43

the airport preparing for stuff in

2:45

the airport you know this when you're just you

2:47

know on your laptop you know like hunched over

2:49

also people are looking at you and like looking

2:51

at you no no no like I'm sitting there

2:53

fully immersed I'm on a hundred and screen I

2:55

will say dude we were looking at you where

2:57

I sit in a corner I said I know

2:59

my look I'm not the guy looking to get

3:01

a video of me taking I go into a

3:03

corner and I turn my back to everyone else

3:05

and then I put it on so if they

3:07

you do happen to glance me I'm

3:10

not I'm not doing it openly in front of

3:12

everyone else I also if

3:14

any flight attendants listen to the show I

3:16

have been putting the vision Pro

3:19

on after takeoff because I'm afraid

3:21

that vision Pro qualifies like a

3:23

laptop and not a handheld device

3:26

so if any flight attendant could tell me

3:29

whether I it's like a

3:31

cell phone and you're allowed to still use it during

3:33

takeoff or not that would be very helpful because I'm

3:36

also afraid of getting told off being like Sir you

3:38

need to take that off which should just be embarrassing

3:40

so that's what I've been holding on to for now

3:43

overall I love it I absolutely love it I'm

3:45

not returning it I know there's a lot of

3:47

people who are returning it frankly those people are

3:49

just trolling for clicks or they never intended on

3:51

actually buying it in the first place I'm

3:54

not returning it especially because there's no way we're gonna

3:56

another one of these things for like two or three

3:58

years there were three years between in

4:00

Quest 3, it's gonna be a long time. And I

4:02

can tell you already, I think

4:05

V2 is gonna be insane.

4:08

My major prediction, I'm borrowing this

4:10

from Marquise Brownlee, is shared spatial

4:12

computing marshal where you

4:14

and I, not even metaverse per se, but

4:17

I mean, for example, it's a kind of

4:19

a bummer because you want to watch TV

4:21

with your partner, you're sitting there, you're watching

4:23

your television and that's fine. But you know,

4:25

you own a device, which is the greatest

4:27

TV machine literally ever invented and you can't

4:29

share it with somebody else. So if they

4:31

can drive the price down, and then you

4:34

and your share partner in the same space,

4:36

can watch something where you can physically interact

4:38

with each other, like in the real world

4:40

and in the virtual world in the same,

4:42

you know, actual place as opposed to like

4:44

a metaverse type of situation, that's going to

4:46

be just absolute insanity. And that's what

4:48

that's where I think things are heading. That's what I

4:50

do. Very interesting. So

4:53

one follow up from to the next topic.

4:55

I'm sure a lot of folks saw Mark

4:57

Zuckerberg's very well done

4:59

response video, put aside the

5:01

claims like, whoever gave Mark

5:04

Zuckerberg, not just media training, but

5:07

presentation, affect

5:10

conceptualization training to really push

5:12

back against the social network,

5:14

Eric caricature of him, remarkable

5:16

job, really well performed very hard to do it the

5:18

way he did it. His central

5:20

claim here was end of the day

5:23

for the vast majority of people, even

5:26

including some of the productivity use cases,

5:28

the quest, I

5:30

think the quest for is the one he

5:32

was talking about question three is

5:34

still a better product for much cheaper. I

5:37

think the main response I had to it

5:39

though, and I said this to you in a

5:41

group chat with our friends was look, end of the day,

5:43

the quest, the Oculus before

5:45

these have been out for years. I'm

5:48

waiting a few months before I get

5:50

a vision pro, but there's never been one

5:53

single time I've seen a quest

5:55

or an Oculus devices that are myself

5:57

man, like I'm experiencing FOMO. I'm

5:59

clearly experienced. experiencing FOMO from the Apple

6:01

Vision Pro. So like that's a basic

6:04

like execution and then like company marketing

6:06

issue that comes down

6:08

there. But then too, I think Zuck spent

6:10

too much time focusing on the video games

6:12

in terms of the difference and saying like,

6:14

look, we have all these games. They barely

6:16

have games. You could play Xbox on it.

6:19

I just don't, I think the market of

6:21

people who are looking to play games

6:23

in that style, they're already well-served,

6:25

but that's not who was actually

6:27

choosing between the Vision Pro and

6:30

the Quest 3. What's your take on the

6:32

response? Yeah, it's tough because I'm not the

6:34

bright customer to even ask. I

6:36

don't game. I don't even consider the Vision Pro. That's what I was

6:38

touching. I hear things we say, like I was shocked at how, the

6:41

only thing that I saw was being totally better

6:44

was that gaming center of experience. And I'm like,

6:46

I don't give a shit. I don't care about

6:48

gaming. That's why, by the way, I never even

6:50

considered Quest 3 because everybody I know has a

6:52

Quest 3 is a gamer. They're like, oh, you

6:54

gotta play this game and that game and the

6:57

metaverse. I'm like, I'm literally not interested in that.

6:59

I'm interested in television and productivity apps. So, you

7:01

know, if you can fix that, great. Yeah,

7:04

theoretically he's right. I mean, you can use

7:06

Quest 3 with a PC. I don't have

7:08

a PC or you have a Mac. I

7:10

don't even know if that has the integration,

7:12

but look, what do people always say about

7:15

Mac? It just works. And

7:17

the most awesome thing is you

7:20

open up your MacBook with the

7:22

Vision Pro on, then a floating

7:24

button says connect, and you hit

7:26

it with your fingers. And now

7:28

you have a fully functional screen

7:31

that you can place where you want, make as

7:33

big as you want, which is completely integrated with

7:35

your keyboard and with your

7:38

trackpad. And I'm not kidding, guys.

7:40

It takes one second after you

7:42

hit connect. It just works. It just works. What

7:44

else can I say about it? So I don't

7:47

know. I probably have to download some like mirroring

7:49

thing and all this, it's just like, it's too

7:51

complicated. And that's kind of what my response to

7:54

Zuck was is Quest

7:56

3 is priced appropriately. It's a gaming device. It's

7:58

what is it like? 500 bucks, 550. How

8:01

much is the PS5? See, again, I don't game. It's 400 to 500.

8:05

There you go. Sounds reasonable. But

8:07

how much is a high-end MacBook Pro? 2500?

8:11

Okay. Now, well, I have

8:13

a high-end MacBook Pro with glasses. You

8:15

add on a thousand plus a little bit

8:18

more, you know, for the, for like taxes

8:20

or whatever, for first-generation tech and a

8:22

brand new factory and Shenzhen seems reasonable

8:24

to me. But you have

8:26

to put it that way. You have to

8:28

like compare things and the difference. That's the

8:30

other thing, man. When you hold the hardware

8:33

and you look and you see how small

8:35

the actual headset itself is outside of many

8:37

of the things that are around it, the

8:39

actual computer, it's incredible. I mean, again, all

8:41

I can see when I use this thing

8:43

is I can't imagine what it's

8:45

gonna be like five years from now. I

8:47

actually can't. Just seeing the iPhone 1 to

8:50

iPhone 4, which I lived through. It wasn't even that

8:52

– how long was that? Four years? Yeah.

8:55

Yeah, I think three or four years. That's

8:57

all it took and it's complete revolution. So

8:59

it's coming. It's a great piece

9:01

of tech. I really enjoy it. Good

9:04

take. You probably sold a few to folks

9:06

who were on the bubble there. So the

9:08

next open question is

9:10

your reaction, our reaction

9:12

to OpenAI's new Sora

9:16

video tech. I mean, my instant reaction

9:18

here is there's a lot of

9:20

folks who are saying, oh, Hollywood's finished.

9:22

Creative workers, you should be really

9:25

screwed. There's this really dramatic tweet

9:27

about this is a real F you to

9:29

people who are going into creative work at

9:31

the start of their careers. My reaction, though,

9:33

is to actually go, though, to the problem

9:36

we're all experiencing with streaming services. This isn't

9:38

the problem of, hey, I have to pay

9:40

five different subscriptions or something that needs to

9:42

be one bundle. It's actually just there's too

9:44

much content out there already and there's just

9:46

too much choice. I think back in the

9:48

90s and early 2000s when you go to

9:51

Blockbuster or Hollywood Video and it was just

9:53

easier to pick something you didn't want to

9:55

watch. If there is just gonna be near

9:57

infinite amounts of content that's just generated that

9:59

quickly. via video that looks like very,

10:01

very, very good. That's actually going to

10:04

make it not easier. But I think

10:06

it's just going to put more of

10:08

a premium on like actually good, curated,

10:10

shareable content. I mean, like my wife and I,

10:13

Olivia, we've been just moving for the past most

10:15

really stressed. We're really tired at the end of

10:17

the day. And what we've just been doing is

10:19

we've just been rewatching off and

10:21

on the office in parks and

10:23

rec. We've both seen each of these episodes, not

10:26

not the office in 30 Rock, not parks and

10:28

rec. He's in a big parks and rec fan.

10:30

We have seen the episodes we've watched like

10:32

five or six times each at a minimum

10:35

that's being generous towards the

10:37

low end. We also like have talked about

10:39

them. Like we'll listen to the office ladies

10:41

podcast discussing them. We have this shared experience

10:43

that like dates back to the 2000s. People

10:45

say things like, well, with like chat, GPT,

10:48

Sora, you could have a word where you

10:50

could say like, what if the office didn't

10:52

get bad? What if Michael Scott had stayed

10:54

and create all these different permutations? And that

10:56

could be great. And that could be entertaining.

10:58

If you're like, like to your point, sorry,

11:01

in an airport, you want a plan, you

11:03

want something new, but if you actually want

11:05

to share something with someone where there's once

11:07

again, not just like a shared experience of

11:09

you and your partner, but there's also other

11:11

people in the community have listened or the

11:13

means that get shared, there just has to

11:15

be some shared universe we're operating in together.

11:17

So it's not to say that there won't

11:19

be cool opportunities for AI to create new

11:21

content and expand universes. Like I'd love a

11:23

version of Star Wars from Disney that wasn't

11:26

terrible after 2015. Like what a Star Wars

11:28

was much more like Rogue One than like

11:30

episodes, you know, seven, eight and nine. That'd be

11:32

super cool. I'd be down for that. But I still

11:34

love the fact that I could show up in Texas,

11:36

meet new people and talk about the Star Wars that

11:38

we've actually seen together. So I think it's just going

11:41

to put a premium on curation and

11:43

that premium shared products we could have together. I

11:45

just think AI is a tool and this

11:47

will continue to be a tool. So for

11:49

example, if people want to know for breaking

11:52

point thumbnails, we use mid journey sometimes to

11:54

try and create good thumbnails, but we have

11:56

to come up with the content ourselves and

11:58

everyone's like, yeah, but that's actually That's

12:01

only a few years away. See, this is where I

12:03

totally disagree. I don't think that's a few years away

12:05

at all because what you're talking about is actual, not

12:07

only like AGI but genuine creativity. There's

12:09

something I think about a lot is Noam

12:12

Chomsky, and let's all remember, outside

12:15

of his lib takes, he is a genuinely – He's

12:18

a serious linguist. I think

12:20

he wrote a phenomenal op-ed

12:22

like over a year ago

12:24

in the New York Times

12:26

where he was like, LLMs

12:28

actually aren't language at all,

12:30

and they totally misunderstand how

12:32

the language, connection, and everything

12:34

else exists. They're being built

12:36

from a database perspective as opposed to the

12:39

millions of years of human

12:41

evolution that led to spoken

12:44

word, and that just stuck with me for

12:46

a really long time. And

12:48

I just think that we have a lot of

12:50

hubris that you think you can recreate all

12:53

of that and change it. And

12:55

I kind of think of it in the same way as

12:57

the medical system where the

12:59

medical system and medicine itself

13:02

is really, really good at a couple of things. And this is

13:04

why when people are like, oh, are you anti-modern medicine? It's like,

13:06

well, it depends what you're saying. Like

13:10

in terms of treating infection, awesome. In

13:12

terms of fixing a broken bone, we

13:14

have that down to a literal science

13:16

in terms of cutting something out of

13:18

you and stitching you back up. I

13:20

think that's great. And

13:22

even things even more advanced like heart

13:25

transplants or whatever. But then

13:27

something like depression, and

13:30

people have no idea. The chemical imbalance theory,

13:32

what about this? What about that? I

13:35

think that's because we're dealing with a deeply complex system. I

13:37

think of the same thing about ozmpic. It's

13:39

like, yeah, it makes people lose weight. Oh,

13:42

but when they come off of it, then they gain

13:44

it all back, and there's all kinds of trade-off. Yeah,

13:46

it takes your muscle down, and it slows down your

13:48

gut, and everyone's like, oh, it's fine. I'm like, is

13:50

it fine though? I'm pretty sure the gut would just

13:52

evolve to work a certain way. How do you know

13:55

what's going to happen 35, 40 years from now? That's

13:58

just kind of my thing is I think there's a lot of

14:00

hubris. Like you said, to

14:02

the idea that we're just gonna accelerate

14:04

five years from now, Hollywood will be

14:06

over. I mean, the great Hollywood movies

14:08

are, like again, this is

14:11

a tool in which it's probably

14:13

easier to storyboard now if you

14:15

are a Hollywood creator.

14:17

Yeah, storyboarding and kind of getting a

14:19

conceptual idea of what you're going for,

14:21

definitely. That's gonna be a lot easier.

14:23

But that's a tool. That's not something

14:25

that's gonna replace you, per se. Again,

14:27

the tech people would say I'm totally

14:30

wrong. And I always

14:32

just throw full self-driving back in their face. Again,

14:36

I've used full self-driving. Sorry, guys. It's

14:38

not even close. It sucks. Like, it

14:40

sucks all the time. It's actually super

14:42

annoying, probably 25, 30% of the time.

14:46

And yeah, it's great for some of it, but

14:48

like sometimes, like I said, brakes,

14:53

things are getting into an accident for no reason.

14:55

I mean, you have to be fully aware and

14:57

ready whenever you're using it. So until

14:59

I see evidence that it can make that full jump,

15:03

I'm not that worried about it. I think it's cool. That's

15:05

my only, it's like Vision Pro. I think it's cool. That

15:07

doesn't mean I think it's gonna change the world or

15:09

whatever. I think it's an enhancing tool for

15:12

preexisting things that we already do. Yeah,

15:15

and I think that's a good way to put it.

15:18

Okay, so now we're gonna go to the paid section.

15:20

If you want to get access to this

15:23

part of the conversation once again, go to

15:25

realignment.supercast.com or click the link at the top

15:27

of the podcast show notes on your podcast

15:29

player and app of choice.

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