0:07

The Season with Peter Scheger is a production

0:09

of the NFL in partnership with iHeartRadio.

0:23

What's up, Everybody, This is Peter Schreger. This

0:25

is the Season with Peter Schreeger. As we head

0:27

into the regular season finale,

0:30

Week eighteen, so many storylines,

0:33

so many things going on. I'm

0:35

joined here by Aaron wan Kaufman, my

0:38

great friend and producer. Aaron,

0:41

we're back here to New Year, and yet week

0:43

eighteen, your Buffalo Bills

0:45

are suddenly in one of the most precarious

0:48

sit you. I don't think I've ever seen this in an NFL playoff

0:50

scenario. We're going to get into it with our guests. But the

0:53

Buffalo Bills, if they beat the

0:55

Dolphins, can be the number two seed,

0:57

the AFC East champion not

0:59

only host a wildcard round, but host

1:02

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a divisional

1:04

round. And if they lose, there's a

1:06

very good chance they missed the playoffs altogether. As

1:08

you head into Week eighteen, Buffalo

1:12

Bills a team that we have talked about all season long

1:14

because you ride and die with them, how are you

1:16

feeling headed to Miami to play an injured

1:18

ego bruised Dolphins team coming off

1:20

one of the worst losses any team has suffered this season

1:22

against the Ravens.

1:23

I mean this is indicative of the entire Bills

1:25

season. There have been these high highs. The Cowboys

1:28

game, everyone was like, the James Cook

1:30

and this run game are the best thing the

1:32

Bills offense has had in the past five years.

1:35

And then their games where we're like, wait a minute. I mean

1:37

the first play of the Pats game this

1:39

week and I'm watching it and my dad

1:42

just texts me, Oh my god, and it's like,

1:44

wow, how And we almost lost to the Chargers

1:47

right after the Cowboys. I mean the fact

1:49

that we've had so many ups

1:51

and downs, it is a perfect

1:53

setup right now for us to either get

1:56

the second seed or just totally miss out

1:58

on the playoffs.

1:59

I said this on the Good Morning

2:01

Fols Show, and I'm not calling him out, but I think there's

2:03

this. If you don't watch the Bills

2:05

the last few weeks, you would look at them

2:07

winning all these games and say, oh, they're

2:10

the hot team. They're the team you don't want to face. And

2:12

Jason Garrett on Sunday Night they did that typical

2:15

trope on every pregame show, what's the wildcard

2:17

team? You don't want to see? Jason Garrett's

2:19

like, I don't want to see the Bills. They've got their swagger back,

2:21

and like, hell no, they don't their swagger back. They

2:23

almost lost a Gift Smith and the Chargers

2:26

and they got lucky in that game. And then if

2:29

the Patriots don't throw four interceptions

2:31

and miskicks and have just

2:33

every potential you

2:35

know, turnover possible, they

2:38

almost lost that game.

2:40

Yeah, they

2:44

they seem to play up or down to their opponent

2:46

and the moment more than anyone

2:50

other than like maybe sometimes the Cowboys.

2:53

But regardless of that, the Dolphins

2:55

game, I mean, the Dolphins are beat up, like,

2:58

you know, they peaked so early in the season and

3:00

they've just kept losing players

3:02

on defense and they're gonna

3:04

have no pass rush, it feels like and

3:07

waddles out. Let mean he'll be out until the playoffs.

3:12

Yeah, I mean it's gonna be I mean, I still am terrified

3:14

of a chan a chan and

3:17

so that will be terrifying the entire

3:19

time. But uh, yeah,

3:22

they could also just come out and tyree Kel could have two touchdowns

3:24

in the first quarter and yeah, it'll be wild,

3:26

all right.

3:27

So that's that's what we look forward to. That's Sunday

3:29

night. We're recording this on Tuesday,

3:31

January second. We're about seventy two hours

3:34

removed from one of the craziest finishes

3:38

and controversial finishes we've had,

3:40

certainly this season, maybe the last few. We've

3:43

had a chance to talk to a lot of

3:45

people about it. And here's where we end up on Detroit

3:48

Dallas. You listen to the season because

3:50

you want to know stuff beyond the

3:52

headlines, beyond the hot takes, and here's where

3:54

we're at. So

3:57

the play happens. Obviously there's a flag

3:59

and they call a legal

4:02

man downfielder, legal touching of the ball

4:04

from sixty eight Taylor Decker.

4:07

You've seen the replace Taylor Decker running

4:09

right up to the official. But the

4:11

official, Brad Allen, he

4:14

did say seventy is the eligible

4:17

lineman and

4:19

he is stuck by his word.

4:21

And in the pool report afterwards said I

4:25

was told seventy was eligible and I

4:27

declared seventy was eligible, which was

4:29

Dan Skipper does

4:31

the pool report. So the pool report is basically

4:33

this one was Calvin Watkins, I think did the poor

4:36

report. It's a reporter for

4:38

me, either the home team or the away team,

4:40

and their job after the game is to speak to the

4:43

ref. The ref will give them probably five minutes

4:45

and you get to have questions. And that is all the public

4:47

statements you're going to get from the league or from the ref

4:50

on the call. And in that pool report,

4:52

Brad Allen said seventy declared himself.

4:54

I declared seventy over the loud speaker based

4:57

on that absolutely sixty eight

5:00

decker. That's a penalty. Lions

5:02

fans are saying no. Sixty

5:04

eight declared the Lions after the game,

5:06

in so many words, said no sixty

5:09

eight declared. They also said that someone

5:12

Dan Campbell himself necessarily in the pregame

5:14

went through it with the officiating staff. The

5:17

play in that sixty eight would be be

5:19

the guy that's going to be declared. Now here's

5:22

where it gets a little interesting. That's

5:25

a difference of he said. He said right.

5:28

There also has been this push from

5:30

not the league and not the officials, but from

5:32

others who have no dog in the fight,

5:35

saying, you want to get cute,

5:37

you want to get too close to the sun, you

5:39

might get burned. And in that case,

5:41

the Lions sent three

5:43

different offensive linemen, including Piney

5:45

Sewell, who had nothing to do with it, Skipper

5:48

seventy, and sixty eight Decker,

5:50

who was the supposed eligible

5:53

receiver of the lineman downfield.

5:56

All came running at brat Allen in real time. Brad

5:58

Allen sitting there, he says, seventy

6:01

declares whether or not it was sixty eight

6:03

or seventy. He said seventy. The

6:05

Lions have no more timeouts remaining. They

6:07

go to the line of scrimmage. They run the play.

6:10

Now Golf is in the middle of a huddle talking

6:12

to his guys. Did he hear seventy announced?

6:14

Did anyone hear seventy announced? Because of seventy's

6:17

announced, that's the

6:19

record, and whether he heard it or not, and whether

6:21

sixty eight said he was the guy seventy

6:24

is the one who is announced. They throw the past. The sixty

6:26

eight flag is thrown. They get pushed back

6:28

five yards. It's outraged. Great Campbell

6:30

decides to go forward again. Parsons

6:33

off sides. They go up again

6:36

and they throw this past to James Mitchell, who's

6:38

not a number one guy. He's not samuela Porta incomplete.

6:41

They lose. Now, so what I

6:44

trust greatly had a good question

6:46

to me. If there was

6:48

a holding on that play and it was a two

6:50

point conversion from the seventeen yard line,

6:52

was Campbell going for it? And was Campbell

6:55

so hell bent on going for it that he was going for it

6:57

no matter what? Because I have never seen on

6:59

a play chart a two point conversion play from

7:02

the seven. Now, they got lucky, there was off sides,

7:04

they got the extra yards, they went back up there. But

7:07

Campbell was so help bent on ending that game. And now

7:09

maybe that's and I haven't spoken to Dan about it, and maybe

7:12

I'll get him on the season with Peter Scheger in

7:14

the post postseason, or maybe we'll get him

7:16

on after the season. Was it because

7:18

they had already clinched and they didn't want to risk any injuries

7:20

and overtime. Was it just this mentality

7:22

of that's who the f we are, where the

7:25

where the Lions is what we do. We just go for

7:27

it. We're gonna, you know, break your neck in regular

7:30

you know duration of the regular

7:33

time. We're not going to overtime. We want to do it now here

7:35

and there. That might have been hubris.

7:38

That might have been just arrogance. That

7:40

might have been just you know. I someone

7:42

compared it to the golfer on tin Cup, but I

7:44

said it was like a poker player, like on full tilt,

7:46

like just like screw it. There's a great meme that went

7:48

around with with you know, two

7:51

kings dealt to a guy at the poker

7:53

at that blackjack table and Dan Campbell

7:56

looking at it and saying hit me. I mean, there's

7:58

so many ways to look at it. The look.

8:01

The league stands behind their official. Brad

8:03

Allen's been doing it ten years. He

8:06

hasn't spoken on it since the Pool report. He said

8:08

that seventy declared, we don't

8:11

have the official audio. We don't know what

8:13

went into the pregame conversations.

8:15

We can't blame him after calling a sixty

8:17

minute game to not recall exactly

8:19

that sixty eight was going to be there. On the

8:21

Lion's side of it, they

8:23

have every right to feel upset. Their fans have every right

8:26

to feel outraged if they ran

8:28

this play and sixty eight went up to

8:30

the official and sixty eight said, I am declaring

8:33

as eligible, and there is eye contact

8:35

and the whole thing, and they didn't hear Brad

8:37

Allen say seventy, or even if he did say

8:39

seventy, if they said sixty eight and

8:41

they ran that play to perfection and they did the three guys

8:44

running to the ref because that deception

8:46

is part of football, the same as a play action pass or an

8:48

end a round. And it's look, if the Cowboys

8:51

saw sixty eight going and only sixty

8:53

eight, well then they're covering sixty eight. But if they say three

8:55

guys, they might think that it's going to be seventy

8:57

because he's got in before as the eligible guy. All

9:00

of it's in the weeds. But it's

9:03

a kind of a eye of the beholder.

9:05

If you're a Lions fan, did you get screwed? If

9:07

you're a Cowboys fan, is

9:09

it hey? You want to start playing like

9:12

that and having four guys run at the official

9:14

or three guys running the official. Of course he might mess

9:16

it up. There's a chance he might mess that up. And if he didn't

9:18

mess it up, maybe you guys mess it up. Maybe

9:20

Skippercock confused. Maybe he's the one who declared

9:23

the end of the day. The

9:25

Lions can claim what

9:28

they claim, The league

9:30

can stand behind their official, which they are, and

9:33

they're gonna likely have

9:35

to bounce back from this and not only

9:38

win a playoff game the Lions against

9:40

what seems to be the Rams, who might

9:42

be bigger rivals in this thing than

9:44

anyone because of the Stafford situation and

9:46

the way McVeigh ended things with golf. The storylines

9:49

are so frost and so good, but

9:52

they might beat the Rams and then have to

9:54

go back to Dallas. I

9:57

thought it was really really interesting how Dan

9:59

Campbell would respond Monday,

10:01

two days afterwards, and here

10:04

is his quote from his press conference, which

10:06

has me ready to run through a wall.

10:08

I'm good. I woke up yesterday. I'm

10:10

ready, man, I've got controlled

10:12

fury and I'm

10:15

ready to go. I am I'm absolutely

10:17

ready to go. I don't go the other way so

10:20

and the team won't either. We're

10:22

on a mission and we're not going

10:24

to We're I can feel sorry

10:26

for ourselves and Walder and everything. We

10:28

had plays to make, we didn't make them. And it's

10:31

a tight game, a good opponent, playoff

10:33

type atmosphere, and you got to make that

10:36

one extra play that we didn't, and

10:38

so we will use this as fuel. I got pure

10:41

octane right now. I woke up. I'm ready. So

10:43

we're moving forward.

10:44

Pure octane right now. Oh

10:46

man, that's a good quote. I'm curious

10:49

to see how they respond. They play the Vikings this weekend. It's

10:51

it's not inconsequential because there's a way the Vikings can

10:53

still get in the playoffs, but I believe Detroit is locked

10:55

into number three. They'll either

10:58

play six seed Rams

11:00

or a sixth

11:02

seed. I think there's a chance the Packers

11:05

can be the sixth seed if the Ram losing the

11:07

Packers win, because the Packers beat him when Brett Rippon

11:09

was a quarterback, So there is a way

11:11

that they avoid playing that. And

11:13

then if that's the case, they're playing the freaking Green

11:15

Bay Packers, their arch rivals who have beaten up on them

11:17

the last thirty years, and that's pretty good too. But

11:20

you might get Detroit Dallas again. And if I'm

11:22

a betting man, that's a Saturday night games.

11:25

That's one of those on Divisional round weekend

11:27

where we're all watching and it's

11:30

Tariko on the call, and he's a Michigan

11:32

guy who lives in ann Arbor and he's calling it. It's NBC

11:34

and it's the whole thing. So I

11:37

think the only option the Lions have is to just

11:39

lick your wounds and keep going. But it was

11:41

Harry there for forty eight hours, and you

11:43

know, as the news cycle goes, we're

11:46

here on Tuesday, it's kind of a dead story.

11:48

Like the Lions didn't show

11:51

rage against the machine, against the league. They didn't

11:53

you know, file and official protest. They didn't

11:56

kick and scream. It was kind of like, yeah,

11:59

in the locker room it sucked, and at the first game press

12:01

conference it sucked. But they're

12:03

moving forward, and as Dan

12:05

Campbell says, he won't go the

12:07

other way, and the team won't either. They're on a mission

12:09

and they're not gonna feel sorry for themselves or wallow

12:12

in everything. So why should

12:14

the Lions fans do that either? I'd

12:17

say move on and let's see if you face those

12:19

guys again. Another

12:21

topic that's interesting as we head towards Week eighteen

12:23

is obviously the Baltimore Ravens and what they're doing to

12:25

the league. I don't remember a two week span

12:28

in recent memory where a team puts such a

12:30

statement on their season, basically declaring

12:32

that not only are we number one, we are the best team in the

12:34

NFL by a wide margin,

12:37

which leads to this weekend for the Ravens. You come off

12:39

these two huge wins, but they're all banged up. Also,

12:41

they've got guys who are injured. They

12:44

play Week eighteen in what is seemingly

12:46

an inconsequential, insignificant

12:49

Saturday game against the Steelers,

12:53

and yet it's the Steelers. Like

12:56

I know, Harball, I know

12:58

the Ravens are they gonna

13:00

lay down and let the Steelers have a shot

13:02

to make the playoffs because the Steelers' playoff path

13:04

is not hard. The Steelers beat the

13:06

Ravens, and then if

13:09

the Dolphins beat the Bills, the Steelers

13:12

go to the playoffs. Steelers

13:14

are in. If that's the case,

13:17

the Ravens created a scenario where

13:19

the Steelers can then not only make the playoffs,

13:21

but could somehow get hot and

13:23

face them, and that would mean that the Steelers had swept

13:25

the Ravens in the regular season and then, gosh,

13:27

it's a long shot, but who knows whether

13:30

it's in the divisional round. It

13:32

would probably be in the divisional round if they want. It's a six or

13:34

seven seed. The Steelers would come to Baltimore,

13:36

where they'd already beaten them twice. And then suddenly it's Tomlin

13:39

harblow and you throw out the record books and Mason Rudolph's

13:41

hot and all this stuff. So the Ravens

13:43

have an opportunity here to

13:45

truly eliminate the

13:47

Steelers. They can win this game. Now

13:50

here's the question. Because of the

13:53

way that the active rosters work.

13:55

You can't just rest everybody. Guys have

13:57

to play. So here's my guest,

14:00

and here's how I would approach it if I'm the Ravens, if

14:02

I'm telling them, you can still win

14:04

this game. You could still ruin the Steelers. See you

14:07

wrest Lamar Jackson, you rest

14:10

Kyle Hamilton. You don't dress

14:12

Roquan or Queen. You don't dress

14:15

Stanley who's up and down injured the whole

14:17

last two years. You don't dress

14:19

Stevens who missed last game.

14:22

You don't dress Marlon Humphrey. And

14:24

then you play everybody else and you hope for the best,

14:26

and you hope that Tyler Huntley can still beat the Steelers

14:29

on a standalone

14:31

window game on Saturday on NBC

14:34

where the Steelers go in there and

14:38

it's like Steelers have everything

14:40

to fight for. Ravens then can say, you know

14:42

what, Let's empty the playbook. Let's get

14:44

weird. Let's put

14:46

pressure on the Steelers. Let's go forward

14:48

on fourth down on every possession. Let's do fake

14:51

punts, Let's do random on side

14:53

kicks. Let's throw a bunch of wild stuff at

14:55

the wall and try to still mess

14:57

up the Steelers season. While Tyler Huntley, who

14:59

has played in playoff game and has played

15:01

in big games before, has done it.

15:03

Pro Bowl quarterback Tyler Pro Bowl.

15:05

Quarterback from last year at gosh, is that amazing.

15:08

I think that team's interesting. I also think the forty

15:10

nine Ers are interesting. They're not gonna play

15:13

Rock Purdy. They're gonna play Sam Darnold. The

15:15

Rams probably are not gonna play their

15:18

guy. They're gonna go with Carson Wentz. I want to see

15:20

what these two teams put together, because for

15:22

all the eighteen game season and

15:24

all the suspense we want to build up, those

15:27

guys can sit back and smoke cigars

15:29

and chill for two weeks while the rest

15:31

of the world just bangs their head

15:33

against each other and it's a collision

15:35

course for their conferences. Gosh,

15:38

what a luxury it is this year, and what

15:40

a luxury for both those teams. To lock it up in week seventeen

15:43

and not Week eighteen. They have nothing to play

15:45

for, and yet pride

15:47

does seep in. Not as much for the forty nine

15:49

ers. The Rams are in already. But

15:53

to tell a Baltimore Raven fan that

15:55

you're not gonna try and you're gonna let the

15:57

Steelers into the playoffs, that's

16:00

a tough pill to swallow. We

16:02

have a really cool guest today. We had them on last year,

16:05

the same exact. He's

16:07

going to break two things down for us. He's going to break

16:10

not only all the different playoff scenarios

16:12

and ways for teams to get in, which I think is cool.

16:14

He's also going to talk draft with us,

16:17

because there are multiple ways for

16:19

other teams to get the number two pick now

16:21

that Chicago has already locked up to number one

16:23

pick. Steve Kornaki,

16:26

the NBC and MSNBC Odds

16:29

and Election and Playoff Wizard,

16:31

the Man in the khaki pants, joins us

16:33

after this.

16:40

Well.

16:40

As I mentioned in the monologue, we are in the final week

16:43

of the regular season, and this is going to be an annual

16:45

tradition. We did it last year in the final week of the regular

16:47

season. And he's one of my favorite people on sports

16:49

TV. Also, you can see

16:51

him throughout the next I would

16:54

say the next eight months

16:56

and to ten months. He will be very busy

16:58

as we lead up to the election in twenty twenty

17:00

four. He is our friend from NBC MSNBC,

17:03

NBC Sports Now, mister Steve Kornaki

17:06

a sir, pete.

17:07

I'm doing great. It's an interesting

17:09

time of year. We've got the playoffs coming to a head, and

17:12

we got the political season coming to ahead. So

17:14

it's fun for me.

17:14

They sure do for the listeners

17:16

who might be new to what Steve does

17:19

outside of the football world. And I guess Steve is probably

17:21

listening to this, like are you serious? Yes, I'm serious.

17:23

Some people know you from just Sunday Night Football. My friend,

17:26

all the election stuff. We're talking Maricopa County,

17:29

all that stuff where you get to the board and you

17:31

say who's winning what local election and how it

17:33

leads to the final

17:35

results. Kornaky's the top of the

17:37

game, and Steve's been doing that for years, and then

17:39

NBC in recent years has brought him into kind of

17:41

break down the playoff stuff based on his great work

17:44

on all those local district elections

17:46

and how that leads to it real quick?

17:48

You got Iowa in two weeks. Are

17:51

you on the road? Are you stuck in a lab? Where

17:53

are you going? Iowa breaks down?

17:55

Yeah, first book. I'm flattered if they only

17:57

know me from the NFL or I

17:59

do horse racing for NBC too. I always

18:01

I get a kick out of if people just if they recognize

18:03

me from there instead of politics. It's this

18:06

is the fun part of the job for me, so I love

18:08

getting to do it. The good news for

18:10

me with the political stuff is what

18:12

I do is with this big giant board basically

18:14

what you see on football night in America too. Does

18:17

not travel well, so can't take it out to

18:19

Iowa, can't take it to New Hampshire.

18:21

Got to stay in the studio, so not

18:23

a ton of travel. It's really just for me.

18:25

It's you know, I always got ninety nine

18:27

counties. They're all basically squares,

18:29

so it's every four years I get the old

18:31

flash cards out and start going through

18:34

and make sure I know what's where. And

18:37

you know, New Hampshire's fun too because they do it by

18:39

city in town, so you've got a couple hundred cities

18:42

in town. But I grew up like near there, so

18:44

that gives me a little bit of home court

18:46

advantage.

18:47

But yeah, does this feel like the regular season?

18:49

And then when we get to November, it's like, all

18:51

right, that's a super Bowl and this is kind of like, you know, you

18:53

got to hone your chops a little bit, you got you might be a

18:55

little rusty after the last two years, and now

18:57

we're back in it. Like, is that how it feels right now as

18:59

we head towards obviously Iowa too.

19:02

Yeah, a little bit. I mean I think when I was looking at this

19:04

a year ago we started playing this, I

19:06

was thinking a year ago, this Republican

19:08

primary, you know, would be like

19:11

January to June. Every week there's

19:13

a you know, a primary that's you know, could

19:16

go either way. I thought it was gonna be a wide open race,

19:18

and it's at least right now, it's not looking

19:20

that way. Obviously, we'll see when the voters

19:22

start voting in two weeks if it changes,

19:24

But yeah, it could be. It could

19:26

be a much shorter primary season and a much

19:29

more emphatic one than I

19:31

was expecting. And in that case, yeah, then it's nine months

19:33

of build up to the to the big one

19:35

in November.

19:37

Buckle Up sat

19:39

on the show Today. We were like, welcome in, Happy New Year,

19:41

and I'm like, yes, it'd be very interesting

19:44

twenty twenty four. We shall see how it goes

19:46

real quick. Before we get into the football stuff, which everyone

19:48

is listening to it right, there's a little

19:51

news nugget that like hit my timeline that

19:53

made me love you even more than I love you already. This

19:56

is in the midst of like the Taylor Swift Travis

19:58

Kelcey like phenomenon really breaking

20:00

out. And someone on the Today Show came

20:03

out and was like, I

20:05

don't, I don't. I think Steve knows exactly who

20:08

Taylor Swift is. And they came out I think your partner even

20:10

came out and said, like, does this not a pop

20:12

culture guy he's involved in that? Is

20:14

it true that you didn't

20:16

know exactly who Taylor Swift was? Steve?

20:19

And I do know what I have

20:21

learned? Is it her fans are very intense,

20:23

and I don't want to be on the wrong side of her fans.

20:25

So I mean they said, no disrespect

20:28

whatsoever. I knew the name. I knew

20:30

there was a figure in our popular culture

20:33

who was you know, famous

20:36

and beloved and everything who was

20:38

named Taylor Swift. I couldn't have told you if it

20:40

was an actress, saying I knew it was somewhere

20:42

in that realm. I don't know. Music passed

20:44

about nineteen eighty five. I stopped

20:47

seeing the movies. They're

20:49

all, you know, action hero, you

20:51

know, superhero stuff. I don't like that

20:53

stuff. You know, give me like Jev Chase and funny

20:55

farm or something.

20:57

Again, funny funny what Cramer vs. Kramer Actual,

21:00

I'm not getting that anymore here.

21:01

So yeah, I had no offense. I know she is now,

21:03

I know all about her. Well. I really

21:06

couldn't take many of her songs.

21:07

I know.

21:07

She's just say, you think I

21:10

love this so much because we all

21:12

live in our phones, we all live in our bubbles,

21:14

and you're like, I think the quote

21:17

from the Today Show host it might have

21:19

been Chanelle Jones. She said, like, if you check

21:21

Steve's Instagram, it's lakes,

21:23

oceans and mountains. You're

21:26

not posting memes.

21:27

No, No, it's it's

21:29

my respite from you know, it's things

21:31

that call me, things that give me a sense of peace.

21:35

Perfect speaking of things that calm and give

21:37

peace. Let's talk playoffs scenarios

21:39

when people are on the edge of their sea right now, I

21:41

hope we can dive right in here as we have

21:43

it. We've got our seven teams on

21:45

the AFC, You're seven teams on the NFC,

21:48

and there's not as much fluidity

21:50

with the playoff pictures as recent years. I feel

21:52

like I feel like with our one seeds locked up,

21:55

we kind of have some stability there, and

21:57

in most cases the three seeds, I

21:59

think the Chiefs and Lions are pretty much locked up,

22:01

and then from there the five seeds

22:04

look pretty stabled. We know the Browns sure

22:06

of the five seed, the Buccaneers if they beat the Carolina

22:09

Panthers, they're the five seed.

22:11

But there is some ways to teams can wiggle

22:13

in. There's some teams that teams can fall out. I

22:15

think the most interesting scenario,

22:18

if we can get right into it, can

22:20

you take us through the Buffalo Bills

22:22

scenario and what is that stake

22:24

on Sunday night and what could happen on Saturday

22:27

and Sunday that can lead that game to having

22:29

even greater stakes than just winning the AFC

22:31

East time.

22:31

Yeah, totally right there. That is the I

22:34

think that's the most interesting and the most dramatic,

22:37

because look, you know, a month

22:39

ago, obviously Buffalo was buried, not

22:41

just the AFC race, but I mean it looked like they were

22:44

I think in the ten spot.

22:45

You know, they're in the eleventh spot, fourteen

22:48

chance, I think around things.

22:49

Remember, So it's interesting you look at it.

22:51

The same week you had Buffalo

22:54

pull out the win against Kansas City, you had the controversial

22:56

penalty, They get the win, and they've done nothing

22:58

but win since. Then that same week, Miami

23:01

on Monday night blows the fourteen point lead

23:03

against Tennessee with three minutes left. I

23:05

think that was what the first time in forty

23:07

five years or something that it happens. So that

23:09

happens the same week, and all of a sudden,

23:12

you watch the odds, you track them week by week, the probabilities

23:14

for that division they've collided at essentially

23:16

fifty to fifty. Now they were they were like ninety

23:18

five to five with three minutes to go in that

23:21

Miami game. And so the scenario for Buffalo

23:24

is, look, they had to win earlier

23:26

against Miami. See win this game, both

23:28

teams will be eleven and six. Buffalo gets the tiebreaker.

23:31

Buffalo gets the division. That's gonna mean the

23:33

two seed. That's gonna mean you know, at

23:36

least if you keep winning at least two home playoff

23:38

games. You know, Buffalo's

23:40

really you know, come from nowhere to being you

23:42

know, in a great spot heading into the playoffs.

23:44

Now, if Buffalo loses, they

23:48

definitely could fall into the wild card,

23:50

but they're gonna need help to stay in that wildcard

23:53

mix. So what Buffalo would then need is

23:55

either Tennessee would have to knock off

23:58

Jacksonville or they would need boll

24:00

likely, yeah, you would say, unlike. I mean, we've seen

24:02

some you know, some cheered Week eighteen

24:05

outcomes before the other one is you know,

24:08

they would need to Baltimore to

24:10

beat to beat Pittsburgh, which,

24:13

okay, on paper is certainly say

24:15

is likely. But then there's the question of who's playing,

24:17

who's motivated more, and all of that.

24:20

So Buffalo's you know, it's

24:23

a tailor two cities.

24:24

That's all that happened, That's all the needs to happen. So the Jaguars,

24:27

playing for everything, have to beat a Titans team playing for nothing,

24:29

and the Steelers playing for everything have to play

24:32

have to beat a Baltimore team that is

24:34

gonna have probably eight ter nine. Starter is not

24:36

even dressed. So if those two things happen,

24:39

it's win and a two seed

24:41

lose, an out of the playoffs for Buffalo.

24:43

Yeah, fascinating, that's

24:46

what I say. It's the crazy. Now Miami obviously

24:48

is locked up. Now they wouldn't

24:51

get They would fall if they lost, they would fall,

24:53

not to the five to the six. You say five is locked up

24:55

for Cleveland, so six would be Miami, and

24:57

three, as you say, is locked up in the AFC

25:00

for Kansas City, So Miami.

25:03

It's not quite as dramatic, but it's two

25:05

seed home game at LEAs one home game. These

25:07

two home games if you keep winning, or trip

25:10

to Arrowhead playing Mahomes on the road

25:12

in the first round. So you know, it's

25:14

not quite a stark, but it's stark either way.

25:17

The next team I want to talk about

25:19

is the Minnesota Vikings,

25:21

because they lost that terrible game Sunday

25:24

with a lot on the line, they

25:26

go tumbling in the standings, and yet I wake up this morning

25:28

and I see there is still a path

25:30

for the Vikings to get in, especially if the Chicago

25:33

Bears continue to play like they've been playing.

25:35

Yeah, I'm gonna look here,

25:37

we partner with PFF Pro Football

25:39

Focus and seeing what their current

25:41

odds are for Minnesota to actually get in. They

25:43

have met three percent right now, one

25:47

point three. It's three.

25:49

They are of all the teams that are still

25:52

alive in some way for the playoffs, Minnesota

25:55

is the longest shot of any team currently

25:57

alive. So yeah, beat Detroit now.

26:00

First of all, the way Minnesota is playing,

26:02

you got your doubts. Detroit's probably

26:05

going to be angry. I'm not sure there are motivation

26:07

level in terms of seating, but I'm thinking they're

26:09

gonna be a little angry company

26:12

Campbell.

26:13

He used the quote controlled Ferris.

26:15

That's how they feel, right, that's a.

26:17

Good face, controlled fury. H. Then

26:19

you're gonna need green Bay to lose to

26:21

Chicago. Like you say, Chicago's

26:24

playing real well right now, but green Bay,

26:27

you know, must win game and look

26:29

good. Certainly on Sunday. You're gonna need Seattle

26:32

to lose to Arizona.

26:34

And I think that's where it starts to really Now, look,

26:36

Arizona's pulled off a big way and

26:39

Seattle's a Seattle can be a weird team.

26:42

So you would need that, and then you would also need

26:44

Tampa Bay or New Orleans

26:46

to lose. Tampa play in Carolina,

26:49

and then New Orleans has that game against Atlanta,

26:52

so one of those two would have to lose. If

26:54

all of that happens, then Minnesota could

26:57

still get in with that last wildcard spot.

26:59

Okay, how about Seattle? Do you have that handy?

27:01

What does the Seahawks need to get back into it? A

27:03

heartbreaking loss to the Steelers on.

27:06

Yeah, I mean, so it's basically they

27:08

need now they need green Bay to turn

27:10

around and lose. They need to win obviously,

27:13

and then they need green Bay to turn around and lose

27:16

and they can get into that, you know, into that seventh

27:18

spot. So they're cheering.

27:21

And last year green Bay on your network on NBC,

27:24

green Bay had everything to play for

27:26

a playoff spot and the Lions were already eliminated

27:28

because the Seahawks had beaten the Rams.

27:31

And what do you know, Jared

27:34

Goff, the Lions they come into Lambo.

27:36

Can justin fields do that and now give Seattle

27:39

hope because I would think Seattle beats

27:41

Arizona and if they're winning, they're they're watching

27:43

that clock closely. Can that's

27:46

not that crazy, I thought.

27:47

Yeah, I mean it's just yes, we saw it. We saw

27:49

it, uh last year and

27:53

you know, I don't know, between the Philadelphia

27:55

and Tennessee games, you know, you see uh

27:57

uh Seattle put themselves in the same spot.

27:59

They needed the last minute long

28:02

drive they got into two straight games to get

28:04

back into playoff mix. Maybe two straight years

28:06

they could get the kind of unexpected

28:08

assist from the team, you know, out of the playoff picture.

28:11

All right, do you want to go through the AFC South

28:13

situation a little bit because it is a little complicated.

28:16

We know there's a winning in game on Saturday

28:18

night between the Colts and the Texans,

28:21

but it's not for the division. It could be for

28:23

the division. Explain it.

28:24

Yeah, it's interesting because in some

28:27

ways right now, it's the three way tie there

28:29

at the in the AFC South, and

28:31

Jacksonville has all the tie breakers over

28:33

both Indie and Houston. But

28:36

the winner of that Indie Houston game is

28:38

going to come into Sunday in better shape than than

28:40

the Jacks at ten and seven, either one of them.

28:42

All they have to do is get to ten

28:44

and seven and they clinch a playoff

28:47

berth whether it's a wild card or the

28:49

division title is then going to be settled Sunday

28:51

in the Jacksonville Tennessee game. If

28:53

Jacksonville drops that game to Tennessee,

28:56

then the winner of Indie Houston wins

28:58

the division gets the four

29:01

seat because they'll have leaped. You know, Jacksonville

29:03

be nine to eight and then you know ten and seven

29:05

will get them in. So, uh,

29:10

the scenario there obviously be those teams just you want

29:12

to win and you would hope Jacksonville loses. But even if Jacksonville

29:14

doesn't lose, you are in the playoffs. Now Jacksonville,

29:17

if they lose, they could they

29:20

could fall down. They're nine to eight and they could

29:22

fall into that wild card pool and

29:24

they would need uh, two

29:27

things to happen. They need Baltimore to

29:29

beat Pittsburg because Pittsburgh's hanging around that wild

29:32

card race. And then they would this was weird,

29:34

but they would need Vegas to

29:36

beat Denver, two teams

29:39

that are out of the playoff picture right now

29:41

interconference records. Well, yeah, what would happen

29:44

is if Denver were to win, you know

29:46

he gets nine and eight. Denver's not making the playoffs

29:48

no matter what. But Denver would

29:50

enter into it nine and eight, a very

29:53

complex tiebreaker. We already

29:55

know Denver would lose the tiebreaker.

29:57

But they'd all be nine and eight, so they're still in.

29:59

The time presence

30:02

in the tiebreaker would screw it up

30:04

for Jacksonville. So so it Yeah,

30:06

so Jacksonville is gonna be cheering for if they

30:08

can't get it done against Tennessee, which is obviously the easiest

30:11

path. They're cheering for the Raiders, and they're cheering

30:13

for the Ravens. They're gonna need both of those to happen.

30:16

Not to put you on the spot here, but if the

30:18

Colts or Texans lose on

30:21

Saturday night, are they mathematically eliminated

30:23

or can they still somehow find

30:26

a wild card spot? If Jacksonville

30:29

gets what they need to be, it doesn't get

30:31

what they need. This is in the week. Yeah, let's

30:34

let's just is there. I just don't know if I'm a.

30:36

Winner in I'm pulling out. I think this is a I'm

30:39

going through like one hundred pages right here, but I got

30:41

I got a fun love for you here. Yeah.

30:45

Basically, uh, there

30:47

is the ogive the odds. So again, this is from

30:49

our friends at pff. This might be a

30:51

good way of looking at it. The best

30:54

path the playoffs, obviously for Indy and Houston

30:57

is to get that division win, but they each have

31:00

and give them to you here, Houston. Right

31:02

now, the odds are getting a wild card. They

31:04

have a twelve percent shot at picking up the six

31:06

seed. They have a fourteen percent shot

31:09

of picking up the seven seed. Indianapolis

31:11

a thirteen percent shot at the sixth seed, and

31:13

a fourteen and a half percent shot at the seventh

31:15

seed. So you know, they do they

31:18

do essentially if you add those two together, the division

31:20

and the wild card possibility, they're each

31:22

floating around fifty to fifty to

31:25

make the to get in the playoffs

31:27

here.

31:27

Okay, okay, so it's

31:29

not so crazy, all right, Pittsburgh

31:32

Steelers. It's kind of a simpler path. They're

31:34

gonna need a little help. But how do they get in as they're

31:37

on the outside looking in right now?

31:38

Yeah, so Pittsburgh and call

31:40

this one up two here. Look,

31:43

we talked about the scenario with the Ravens,

31:46

the question of motivation. You just got to you gotta

31:48

get that win to

31:51

get you to ten and seven. You

31:53

then need Buffalo to lose.

31:56

So that's because they would get that tie

31:58

breaker. So then they're in, Yeah, get get

32:01

a loss there, you know your ten and said, well you need

32:03

Buffalo to lose or the other

32:05

place they could get into trouble here. Uh

32:09

that's with a loss. Yeah, with a win at ten, I think it's a

32:11

win at ten and seven, Yes, because then Buffalo falls

32:14

and you get that winter and you're

32:17

you know.

32:19

The longest shot is the Vikings. What's

32:22

the fun the most fun and complicated scenario

32:25

you've got there that you've had to go through or that maybe you

32:27

could present through.

32:28

I think, well, I think it is the Vikings because there we

32:30

have three percent. I mean, just looking at the odds

32:32

we give to every team here, there's nobody else who's

32:35

in the mix, who's who's less than about a quarter.

32:38

I think the uh, the NFC South

32:40

is interesting just because you know, Tampa had the chance.

32:42

Yeah, Tampa had the chance to lock it

32:44

up. And now you've got eight Nate Tampa,

32:47

eight Nate New Orleans seven to nine

32:49

Falcons, and the Falcons playing the Saints

32:52

you know in week eighteen. So Tampa,

32:55

look again, this is one of those on paper, they're

32:57

playing Carolina. Just beat Carolina

32:59

win the division. But

33:01

if they slipped up, then

33:04

New Orleans, uh, well, then the winner

33:06

that New Orleans Atlanta game gets the division. Obviously

33:08

New Orleans would get it. If they were they'd be nine and eight.

33:10

They'd be the only nine win team in the division.

33:12

How would Atlanta get it? They would sweep No.

33:14

Orleanta. Then Atlanta would be eight and nine.

33:16

New Orleans would be eight and nine with that loss, and Tampa

33:19

would be eight and nine. And if they all finish at eight

33:21

and nine, Atlanta is actually going to win that tiebreaker

33:23

on the division record, right, I see, I

33:25

think it's the No, it's not the division record, it's the combined

33:28

record of three teams when they've played

33:30

each other. So Atlanta at eight and nine would get

33:33

that. And the other kind of interesting,

33:36

you know, kind of long shot scenario there is New

33:38

Orleans. If Tampa wins in New Orleans

33:40

beats Atlanta, New Orleans at nine and eight,

33:43

they'd like they're like third in the pecking order.

33:45

But could they move into the wild cards? Could

33:47

they get a Green Bay loss? Could

33:49

they get a Seattle loss? And at

33:52

nine to eight, could New Orleans suddenly be alive

33:55

to make it not as the division champ, but to

33:57

make it as a wildcard. And could that NFC South

33:59

that we've kind of penciled in all years

34:01

a one bid division, could they produce two

34:04

teams?

34:04

So you're basically saying the Vikings need

34:07

three things to happen. The Saints

34:09

need two. Like whatever it is, the Saints need one less

34:11

thing. The Saints are above the Vikings as long as they

34:13

win and they get the same thing.

34:15

The Peggy order is basically green Bay right now, it's green

34:17

Bays to lose. If green Bay loses it, it's Seattle's

34:19

to lose. If Seattle loses it, in New Orleans enters

34:21

the picture. If they lose it, then you're

34:23

looking at maybe it could

34:26

default to the Vikings.

34:28

And if you're a Falcons fan, all you need to do

34:30

is worry about winning and somehow Carolina

34:32

pulling the upset and then you're in the playoffs as a

34:34

division.

34:34

Cam you get a home game. It's

34:36

a home playoffs nine. Yeah.

34:40

Great, all right, So that's one side

34:42

of football fandom, and everyone's doing that. There's

34:45

another side watching the draft order. This

34:47

isn't your This isn't your expertise. Usually

34:50

they don't bring you on NBC to talk draft order,

34:52

but it got really interesting this year because

34:55

of the quarterbacks that are involved. And

34:57

if you know how the last few seasons have ended

35:00

on Week eighteen, the draft order has

35:02

shuffled tenfold based on

35:04

crazy results and what we think are meaning last

35:06

Week eighteen games. But then it kind

35:08

of shapes the future of the NFL base on where these

35:10

quarterbacks go. Let's

35:13

look at this draft order right now, as number

35:15

one is locked up with the Carolina Panthers,

35:18

Number two is the Washington Commanders.

35:21

That you would think with the Cowboys having to win

35:23

this game and win the NFC East and

35:25

the Commanders having nothing to play for except pride,

35:28

that the Cowboys would win. However, if

35:31

the Commanders lose, that

35:33

set if the Commanders win,

35:37

Let's go through the motions here and see.

35:39

If the Commanders win and

35:42

they do not have the number two pick, who

35:44

can get the number two pick because it's either Caleb

35:46

Williams or Drake May and those guys are going

35:48

to be outstanding NFL quarterbacks.

35:50

Yeah, so this is fun. I got I

35:52

got my spreadsheet up right now, you got it? Currently

35:55

for the two spot you got a three way ties,

35:57

you say Washington, who right now controls

36:00

that tie breaker? Can we explain what

36:02

the different like this is the weird time

36:04

so they not head to head, could

36:06

end up being head to head, but it starts out

36:08

at strength of schedule. It's just

36:11

the number one time breaker is what's the record

36:13

of your opponents? And the worse the

36:16

record of your combined record of all the opponents

36:18

you've played this year is the better

36:20

you get draft position, So you want.

36:22

That seems backwards, yes, but that is how

36:25

it goes.

36:25

So if you look right now the

36:28

Washington, it's basically it's by

36:30

one game. If you add up the

36:32

wins and losses of all of the Commander's

36:35

opponents this year, the Commander's opponents

36:37

are one hundred and forty and one hundred and thirty

36:39

two, and they're four and twelve right

36:41

now. The Pats are four and twelve right

36:43

now, and the combined record of all their opponents

36:45

this year is one hundred and forty one and

36:48

one hundred and thirty one, So

36:50

this is a now and then also

36:52

the Cardinals are tied at four

36:54

and twelve, but there it's there. What's

36:56

the number here? They have a much stronger

36:59

They're now opponents are much better than say, yeah, any

37:01

tie with the with the The only way

37:03

the Cardinals get the top pick

37:05

here is if they lose next week and both

37:08

Washington and New England win, they have to be alone

37:10

four and thirteen because they're not winning any type of Their

37:13

schedule is too strong. It's a weird.

37:15

It's a weird. But that Washington New Eeland one

37:17

is interesting because the one game between them,

37:20

so you look at now, is New England

37:22

going to lose to the Jets? If it's Belichick's you know,

37:24

final game in New England. You know his history, that is

37:27

he gonna really want to you know. Okay, but let's

37:29

say they do. Let's say that That's lose it.

37:32

Let's say Washington loses it. So you got

37:34

two at four and thirteen. How is that

37:36

common? How is that?

37:39

Uh?

37:39

A straight? The schedule going to change? The

37:41

big swing game to watch. There's

37:43

a couple that come in, but the biggest one to

37:45

keep an eye on by far is Atlanta

37:48

New Orleans. Okay, love,

37:50

New England played New Orleans

37:53

this year, right, and Washington

37:55

played game and

37:57

Washington played Atlanta.

37:59

So it's it's a key

38:01

swing. If New Orleans wins

38:04

the game, the Patriots, in

38:06

their strength of schedule, get what

38:08

they don't want. They get another win

38:10

for their opponents, and meanwhile, for

38:12

Washington, they get another loss for their opponents,

38:15

because that's that's Atlanta losing. So the

38:17

Pats really want if

38:20

they're playing the draft game, the Pats really want

38:22

Atlanta to beat New Orleans,

38:25

and Washington really wants New Orleans

38:27

to beat Atlanta. They want the team they played

38:30

to take another loss. And the interesting

38:32

thing is, there's a couple others that play out, but let's just stay

38:34

with that one because if that, if the Pats get what

38:36

they want there, and let's

38:39

say everything else kind of works out evenly it wouldn't have to,

38:41

but let's just say it does, and that would mean that Pats

38:43

would move into a tie in strength

38:45

of schedule with Washington. And

38:47

if it ended up tied strength to schedule,

38:50

that is, pardon me, is when head to head comes

38:52

in. And this is the opposite of every

38:54

head to head you've ever wanted, because this is where the

38:57

loser of the head to head doesn't get

38:59

to pick the loser of the head to it doesn't

39:01

get to the loser gets to pick. The

39:04

winner doesn't. So Pats played Washinghington,

39:07

Pat's lost to Washington, and

39:09

it comes back to bite Washington because

39:11

it gives the Pats the number

39:14

two seats.

39:15

So there's a real shot that the Patriots get the number

39:17

two overall pick. Even if Washington

39:19

loses and New England loses.

39:21

Well, that that it's not automatic with

39:23

that, Atlanta, New Orleans, A

39:26

couple others come into play, but that's a huge one

39:28

if that happens. If New Orleans loses,

39:31

excuse me, beats Atlanta and

39:33

both the Patriots and Washington a four and thirteen

39:36

at that point, there's a real chance, and I mean some

39:38

of the other games to keep an

39:40

eye on. Let me say I wrote him down

39:42

here. I mean, for instance,

39:44

they could affect this because a lot of it there's a lot of common games

39:47

between these teams. There's not many that really matter

39:49

on the schedule. But like Denver in Las

39:51

Vegas, right, Okay, So Washington's

39:54

played Denver and played Vegas.

39:56

Pats have played in both. So Patriots

39:59

would want Denver to beat Las Vegas

40:02

because that'd be another win in Washington's

40:04

column instead of a loss. So that's an

40:06

important one. Another important one in Chicago

40:09

Green Bay because Washington's played

40:11

Chicago. New England hasn't played either one of them.

40:13

But you know, obviously Washington

40:16

is a Green Bay fan because that would get

40:18

them and a loss in their column. Indy Houston

40:20

is an important one. Pat's played the Colts, so

40:23

Pats are cheering for Houston again. They're

40:25

doing the draft thing. Pats are chanting for Houston to beat

40:27

the Colts because that could give them another loss

40:30

in the lost column.

40:32

And I think I had

40:34

one more here, Oh, Baltimore Pittsburgh. Yeah,

40:37

so the Pats having played Pittsburgh, Pats

40:39

are cheering for Baltimore to knock out Pittsburgh.

40:41

Right.

40:41

So there's there's basically five games

40:44

that have some that could affect the

40:47

strength to schedule between Washington

40:49

and New England. There's only one that involves

40:52

a team that both teams have played this year. That's at

40:54

Lanta, New Orleans.

40:56

Really quick. Two more teams that I'm gonna let you go. Is

40:58

there a chance the Giants can get the number

41:00

two overall?

41:01

Pick a chance? But it's

41:04

it's it's fractional. So

41:07

it involves First of all, you gotta remember that you

41:09

know Arizona is sitting there, you know,

41:11

playing a desperate Seattle team,

41:14

and even if Washington wins, and even

41:16

if New England wins, you're still, if you're

41:18

a Giants fan, you're gonna need Arizona

41:20

to win as well. You're gonna need all three of those

41:23

teams to win. Now, if they do,

41:26

Washington does the Giants, excuse

41:28

me, do enter into that strength

41:30

to schedule mix Right now?

41:33

Their opponents are combined one

41:35

hundred and thirty nine and one hundred

41:37

and thirty three, so they're

41:40

actually, you know, it's a game

41:42

weaker, but in this context, the game

41:44

better than Washington right

41:47

now when it comes to that, when it comes

41:49

to getting the two seeds. So now

41:51

that again there's some common games there that could

41:54

change, so there would be. But yes,

41:57

if if Washington loses to Dallas,

41:59

if New England loses, excuse me, if Washington

42:01

beats Downs, if New England beats

42:05

the Jets, and if Arizona beats Seattle

42:08

and the Giants lose, then

42:11

the Giants enter into a tie

42:13

with those teams, and their strength of schedule

42:16

would give them a shot.

42:17

Unbelievable. Last one, the

42:20

La Chargers, they have gone from being

42:22

a super Bowl favorite for the season, could they end

42:24

up with the number two.

42:25

So it's a similar scenario

42:28

here, but the strength is so right now,

42:30

the Chargers combined opponent

42:33

record is one forty three and

42:35

one twenty nine, so you

42:37

could see it would they need

42:40

They'd probably want the Giants to win. You

42:44

know, they wouldn't want to be in

42:46

a tiebreaker with the Giants, and they're gonna they

42:48

would beat if they could get into a tiebreaker with

42:50

Arizona, their strength

42:53

of a schedule would would

42:55

break in their favor with Arizona.

42:57

To catch New England would be tough. You

42:59

know, there are two games up there. To catch

43:02

Washington would be So there

43:04

is a scenario for them,

43:07

but you know, again it involves

43:10

they're gonna need some breaks on common games,

43:12

on a unique games, i should say, in the

43:15

strengthen schedule, and

43:17

they're going to need Arizona to win.

43:20

My big takeaway from this is a revelation that

43:22

the Patriots, despite thinking all

43:24

their fans thinking, they ruined any chance that Drake

43:26

may when they beat the Steelers,

43:29

they ruined any chance when they went on Christmas

43:31

even beat the Broncos

43:35

that hey, you could just take

43:37

care of business lose. See Washington

43:39

lose, that's okay. And if they

43:41

need New Orleans and they they need Atlanta.

43:44

Because they played New Orleans, so they want New

43:46

Orleans to take a loss, and Washington

43:49

played Atlanta, so they want that to be credited

43:51

as a win in Washington's column. How much

43:53

do this? How much are the Patriots? How much is

43:55

Bill Belichick willing to lose to the Jets?

43:58

They getting it first is the first question

44:00

there. But yeah, it's possible, and.

44:01

I don't think They've got fifteen straight wins, and Belichick

44:03

hates the Jets and they're so prideful as a franchise.

44:05

I don't see them losing unless the Jets

44:08

just somehow put it together. But based on what they've

44:10

done Thursday night against Cleveland, I don't see

44:12

that either. Hey, real quick, before we go, I

44:14

want ninety seconds to a minute.

44:17

Tell me about Humboldt County and how

44:19

it's looking out in Iowa right now.

44:24

I don't have go to work, Cord, Now, do you live

44:26

this way? I don't have county to county polls

44:29

in Iowa, but our last pool of Iowa,

44:31

which we do with the devoid register, I'll give a plug

44:33

to them. They have the best by far pool in Iowa had

44:36

Trump head by forty points. So I imagine

44:39

he's ahead. Okay, I imagine he's up at

44:41

all ninety nine counties in Iowa right now.

44:43

But yeah, we are.

44:44

Is there a debate before that is gonna get

44:46

on that announced?

44:48

It looks like he's not. So

44:51

it looks like you're going to have a Nikky Haley

44:53

ron to see it. This debate seat. They

44:55

haven't seemed to matter. Christ not

44:57

meeting the threshold, not meeting

44:59

the threshold. So and no Trump there

45:02

and uh, here's here's the plug. The

45:05

Sunday mo before the Caucasus. It's

45:07

gonna be a Sunday morning of January fourteenth.

45:10

NBC News has a partnership with the des Moines

45:12

Register, biggest newspaper in Iowa. They have

45:14

their poll. This goes back decades.

45:17

They have the best poll of that state. Everybody

45:19

looks for the day before the Caucasus. It's

45:21

historically been very accurate. We're gonna release

45:23

it with them the Des Moines Register that Sunday

45:26

morning before the Caucasus. So look

45:28

for that poll is a big clue heading at the caucas day

45:30

in two weeks.

45:30

All right, I need a time because I got wild card weekend.

45:32

That weekend, I'm gonna be sucked. I'm gonna have what time

45:34

is this, I'll meet the frost when we have six am,

45:41

we get out.

45:41

I believe that's what we're looking at.

45:43

Yeah, our updated Paul, Steve

45:45

Karanaki, you are the man. Good luck. Not

45:47

only this weekend on Sunday, We're

45:49

gonna work Saturday too, probably right.

45:51

Yeah, this is this is pretty much going around the clock

45:53

these days. Yeah.

45:55

Yeah, so Saturday night you'll be doing the football,

45:57

Sunday doing the football, and then he'll be doing Iowa

45:59

and of course all the election stuff. Steve,

46:01

it means so much when you join the show, and I just

46:03

really appreciate the friendship that we've begun just

46:06

based on this stuff. I love it. I'm a numbers wonk and I love

46:08

hearing you talking.

46:09

I love talking to Seed. In the

46:11

second pick in the draft, there's completely

46:13

what else, all the terminologies reversed. I probably

46:16

confused it one hundred times, but this was fun. Thanks a lot,

46:18

Thank you, Steve.

46:25

Real quick before we sign off, like the little recap of

46:27

the guest uh Kardaki in the playoff

46:29

odds, it's not that crazy this year. So

46:32

I thought the draft stuff was fascinating.

46:35

Well, I mean, I love the playoff stuff too, but

46:37

the draft was. I

46:39

couldn't believe how close those strengths

46:41

of schedule were with one thirty ninety

46:44

one combined wins. I love that

46:47

the head to head actually could come into

46:49

play. I mean the draft thing like.

46:52

But the the odds and

46:54

the way the way the tie breakers work are completely

46:56

reversed.

46:57

So right until you get

46:59

to head the head and then it's and then the way

47:02

you want it. I mean, this feels like something

47:04

you need to be looking at visually.

47:07

Yes, because algorithm. Even me trying to

47:09

explain it to myself, having just listened and understanding

47:11

it, I still can't explain.

47:13

A segment I should do for Good Morning Football explaining

47:15

it because I feel like, as a viewer, I'm

47:18

a huge draft fan. I

47:20

just assumed Washington has

47:22

a tiebreaker and that's forever over the Patriots

47:25

because they've had the second pick

47:27

this whole time and the Cardinals loss,

47:29

so that but the Patriots

47:31

still could possibly get it if the Falcons

47:34

win and then other

47:36

things have happened.

47:37

All right, and that number two pick is really

47:39

between New England,

47:41

Arizona, New

47:44

York, Washington, Washington, and

47:46

potentially the Chargers.

47:48

I mean, the Jets are out of it because they have one more win,

47:50

but.

47:50

That's four out of those five teams

47:53

you could argue really really want

47:55

a quarterback. That two is

47:58

a really important spot.

47:59

And there's a chance that the

48:02

Bears do something funky, don't take

48:04

a quarterback or trade out the pick.

48:06

To someone else, so many

48:08

things.

48:08

One of these teams, I

48:12

got it. I don't want to call bs, but like,

48:14

how do you not know who Taylor Swift is?

48:18

I mean, I'm sure he could have seen.

48:20

Like if Doua Lipa walked right

48:23

in right now, I don't know if I would know who that is. And I've heard

48:25

her music, I know her face, and I know

48:27

her, I know her songs, but I don't know if I would

48:29

know her in like a crowd. I'll

48:31

give you another one. If

48:34

Meghan the Stallion walked in, I

48:36

would tell you her songs, I know, but I don't know

48:38

if I would one hundred percent know her. If you gave me

48:40

a crowd of Taylor Swift, I

48:42

think like Beyonce, I know, yeah,

48:44

I'm I'm as diehard football an

48:47

one Taylor Swift, I know, right.

48:50

I think the fact that you are

48:52

saying maybe you wouldn't know Megan the Stallion

48:54

just from look is enough to say

48:56

you're a lot more tied in. And

48:58

so it's understandable that cornet.

49:01

You know a movie he referenced. He referenced

49:03

Funny for Google,

49:05

Funny for It came

49:07

out in like nineteen ninety. I want to say, Chevy

49:10

Chase eats a what's you eat? Like dog

49:12

tested?

49:12

What's it?

49:12

Do you remember that scene? What is it? Nineteen

49:15

eighty eight? What testicles does he eat in the movie?

49:17

That's what.

49:19

He eats, like animal testicles and he's

49:21

like, oh, your tasty. That's the big scene that was in the

49:23

trailer. It's basically

49:26

a city slicker lamb

49:28

testicles and he eats and he's like, oh, these are

49:30

chewy, and it turns out their lamb testicles.

49:33

And that's the trailer. And that's all I remember from nineteen

49:35

eighty eight. I was six years old. Dude. Karnaki

49:38

referenced Funny Form as like his pop culture

49:40

touch point.

49:41

It was not even like a recent Chevy

49:43

Chase thing too, or like eighty eight.

49:45

Yeah, and not did not reference

49:48

Fletch.

49:49

Right right, or Caddy

49:51

Shack, National

49:53

Lampoons or anything.

49:55

Yeah, funny farm.

49:56

I'm currently rewatching community with

49:59

which has Chevy Chase.

50:01

And is it worth the rewatch?

50:03

Yeah, I think it's I think it's the beginning. The first

50:05

couple of seasons are great.

50:06

Chevy leaves after how many seasons.

50:08

Forget, like four or five? He's

50:10

in it. Maybe notoriously yet

50:13

yep, yep, yep, yep.

50:16

That's not what they say about KERNACKI they say, right,

50:18

yeah, he wants the harm. He said, I don't want

50:20

to get the ire of Taylor Swift, right.

50:22

Yeah.

50:22

I don't think any of them would be upset with him.

50:25

It's not like he was like, oh, I don't know her because

50:27

she's bad. I know. There was a big news story.

50:29

This is we don't even talk about this. There's

50:31

a big news story. This weekend. Some country music guy

50:34

was like he was playing some festival and he

50:36

was like, Taylor Swift has had

50:38

the most success for someone with no talent, and

50:40

it was like, oh my god, man, you're I

50:42

don't.

50:43

Know well

50:45

no, I mean it was

50:47

the cap from Barstool is great on this stuff. He

50:50

just checks him up. He says that the Chiefs are losing

50:52

because of Taylor Swift. But he's all doing as a troll

50:54

job and he's doing it when he's in on the joke. What's

50:57

this one?

50:58

Wow?

50:58

I can't you know how small the story

51:01

this is. I just searched Taylor Swift

51:03

in news and it's not coming up

51:05

at all. Everything is about the outfit that

51:07

she wore to New year Z.

51:09

Let me ask you this one. I

51:11

work with Erdoll, Jamie Erdol Swifty. She's

51:16

in Taylor is in

51:19

Japan, Tokyo. The

51:22

day of the Super Bowl. I said

51:25

she would cancel the show. She will be at the Super Bowl. She's not

51:27

missing, She's not going to games against the Denver

51:29

Broncos on Christmas and

51:31

traveling out there to see her play the play

51:34

play the Jake Browning Bengals. And

51:36

Erdoll's like, I don't know. And then Kyle

51:39

Brant, who is plugged into

51:41

all this stuff, is like, it's

51:44

a really really really

51:47

big deal to cancer cancel a

51:49

concert date. Like the amount of money, the

51:52

amount of people, the amount of things evolved to

51:54

cancel a concert date is like, And

51:57

I said, well, what if they had two weeks heads up

51:59

and they knew they were going to the super Bowl, And like the

52:01

night they win the AFC Championship game, Taylor

52:03

Swift announces that particular concert

52:06

is going to be another day. Everyone's fully refunded.

52:08

It just is what it is. I'm not missing Aaron.

52:11

You're in the arts and you're into concert.

52:13

Now. Look, I know that you're not Taylor Swift,

52:15

but from a different viewpoint someone

52:18

who knows the music world. Is it so

52:20

crazy for me to think that she would cancel a

52:22

night in Tokyo and go to the super Bowl.

52:25

I mean that's wild, I

52:27

think so. I mean, we the three

52:29

of us, talk about theater a lot. I'm thinking, what

52:32

if you went to go see if what if you went to see

52:35

most of Atherage do her one woman show and

52:38

that night like, oh, she's sick, there's

52:40

a stand in. I mean, I don't know if she even had

52:42

an understudy. Fashions right,

52:45

but it's it's not.

52:46

I know someone who went to see Funny Girl Liah Michelle

52:48

wasn't there and they were not happy.

52:50

Yeah, exactly, it's

52:53

in it right, Yeah,

52:56

but fans

52:59

get really upset when a concert,

53:01

especially an international concert, is

53:03

canceled for whatever reason. Uh. Pretty

53:06

famously, a couple of weeks ago, Daniel Caesar,

53:08

this R and B singer had to shut down all

53:10

of his concerts internationally or

53:13

just in South America. I think because

53:15

of some like label disagreements.

53:18

I don't know the whole story, but people were

53:20

furious, and I think, okay.

53:23

If Taylor Swift was like, I'm can't I'm rescheduling

53:26

this, Lison.

53:26

Shews it like January twenty sixth, the concert's

53:29

February tenth.

53:30

And if she said I'm rescheduling and

53:32

while I'm rescheduling, I'm adding a second

53:34

date.

53:35

Ooh.

53:35

I think people would be okay with it.

53:37

If she's doing it for.

53:38

Love, if it meant

53:40

she had she would have to give something everything.

53:43

This is her supporting her. She's flying one night in

53:45

from Asia to see her husband play in a

53:47

Super Bowl.

53:48

Well not husband yet? Are they married? Did she just

53:50

play some special news?

53:51

Sorr would have made some big

53:53

news from what does that makes

53:56

it even more romantic? Her boyfriend.

54:00

As someone who's not as swifty. I don't know what's more

54:02

important to them. I do think seeing the show

54:04

is very very important to them.

54:08

So but I'm going to turn this question around on you real

54:10

quick.

54:11

Would I'm Mary Taylor? No, no,

54:13

no, my wife America

54:15

and I love her eleven years due

54:17

relaxed. No.

54:18

If so, say the Chiefs

54:21

get to the you

54:23

know, the AFC Championship and they lose, They're

54:25

not going to the super Bowl. Does Kelsey

54:27

go to Tokyo?

54:28

Yes, yes, he supports her, just like she

54:30

supported him. He's on the tour. He came to South America.

54:32

During the season, right, oh yeah, yeah, bye week Yeah

54:35

okay, And you don't think I mean, I

54:37

totally understand.

54:38

A lot of out of it.

54:39

They'll have a Waves podcast and he'll be doing

54:42

Travis Kelsey does Japan, and they'll be doing Man

54:44

on the Street stuff like he's Anthony bourd Dame. Yeah yeah,

54:46

he's there, Okay, all right, And you may never

54:48

see him a football feld again. He might

54:51

that that might be his second career. He's going to be

54:53

traveling Travis Kelsey, which.

54:55

I mean he could be. He and Jason

54:57

could be singing back up on some songs. You know, they

54:59

could do a Taylor album. I've got

55:01

some writing in there.

55:02

So we net out where you say it

55:05

would be a acceptable for the diehard

55:08

swifties as long as she had a nice wrinkle

55:10

to it and offered a nice carrot at the end, saying, I love

55:12

Tokyo so much. We're gonna do another night?

55:14

I think so? Okay, Yeah,

55:17

I think that that would be a way to win

55:20

back some good grades.

55:21

One more.

55:23

The day they announced Usher It's

55:25

going to be the halftime show, she

55:27

made her first appearance at a Chiefs

55:29

game. I forget who they played, but she was in the crowd

55:32

and that just blew everyone away, and that was

55:34

the biggest story. And Usher's super Bowl halftime announcement

55:37

was kind of buried because Taylor Swift was at an NFL

55:39

game and she was cheering on her boyfriend Travis kelce

55:41

which was crazy. Do

55:45

you think Taylor Swift showing up at the super

55:47

Bowl to support Travis kelcey undermine

55:50

the artist Raymond

55:53

and his big night being the super

55:55

Bowl halftime show? And would that even come into

55:57

consideration as she would not want to take any

55:59

of the glow or glamour away.

56:02

Woo. I don't

56:04

know if they have any sort of relationship already, and

56:06

I think maybe they're so different, like

56:08

Usher is more an R and B singer

56:11

than a pop star. Maybe that's

56:13

entirely wrong, but it'd be something else

56:15

if, like, right,

56:18

if Katy Perry was the half, you know, because she's

56:20

already done. Of course Katy Perry did the halftime

56:22

show. If Taylor showed up, oh

56:24

my god, just to be in the crowd, to be in

56:27

the crowd, that would be that'd be rough.

56:29

I think interesting. Uh we wrap

56:31

with that. I also want to mention I

56:34

didn't know if I was going to share it. I had one of the coolest

56:36

career experiences Friday night

56:39

in Los Angeles. My my fight

56:41

is usually Saturday morning. I flew out Friday night

56:43

and a mutual friend, the great Carissa

56:46

Thompson, helped arrange something.

56:48

I had a long, four

56:51

hour, amazing dinner

56:54

with al Michaels and his wife Linda

56:56

on Friday night in Los Angeles. I

56:59

have never had a real

57:01

relationship with al Michaels. We had met

57:04

before h at one time. I'll

57:06

just tell you the stories here in Sochi at

57:08

the Olympics in twenty thirteen, he

57:11

was there and have a NBC obviously in a much

57:13

more prominent role than me for Fox,

57:15

which was not a right soldier, but

57:17

one time I met him there and we had a great conversation

57:20

and we talked, you know, his stories, which was

57:22

cool. Fast forward

57:24

a couple of years ago, I was in the same hotel

57:27

as Al when they were doing a Sunday night game

57:29

and I was there for Fox in Los Angeles and

57:31

Chris collins Worth and his wife Holly, Al and

57:33

his wife Linda, and me as a fifth

57:36

hung at the bar watching like

57:38

a college football game, which was so cool.

57:41

And then most recently,

57:43

it would be this Friday night, I get

57:45

this text from Carissa who's like, Al

57:48

Michaels wants to

57:50

meet you. I know you're a huge fan of his. Let's put this

57:52

together. It was Carissa,

57:54

it was myself, it was our mutual

57:56

friend Spoon Spandune daf

57:58

Turi, who is the Amazon

58:01

pregame show producer used to be a Fox pregame

58:03

producer, and it was Al Michaels and

58:05

his wife. And the topics went

58:08

from Al's

58:10

relationship with Don Rickles, which spanned

58:12

many years, Al's role in

58:15

the O. J. Simpson Chase coverage

58:17

as the Brentwood native and

58:19

the guy who was a man on the scene.

58:23

Al's relationship with Howard Stern, who

58:26

is a hero of mine and his relationship

58:28

with him. To Al's thoughts

58:30

on Today's NFL, it

58:32

was amazing and I hope

58:34

he becomes a lifelong friend. We had an amazing

58:37

dinner and it was

58:39

really cool, and it just, you know, keeps

58:41

you grateful

58:44

and grounded that you can have those cool experiences.

58:46

And Alan Michaels Aaron pretty

58:48

cool.

58:49

Yeah, did you? I just I

58:51

assume you workshopped that Taylor

58:53

Swift canceling the Tokyo show idea

58:56

with him to bring it up to me.

58:58

Yeah, you know, he's got his He's

59:00

got his what do you call it? Piccadillos, know what

59:02

they would call it. Like, there's there's

59:04

the Taylor Swift stuff, which I didn't get into with him.

59:06

There's the vegetable thing, which I dined with. Oh

59:09

right, he didn't need a single vegetable he's

59:12

never had he said, he's never had a vegetable.

59:14

And then the gambling stuff. But she used to always allude to.

59:17

Now he's like out in the open, and I was like

59:19

curious his thoughts and then he's like and he has a great line.

59:21

He's like I was always a bit of a rascal. But I

59:24

said, is there any advice. He's like, yeah, be a rascal.

59:26

I'm like, yeah, I don't have the same leeway

59:28

and log be a rascal. I like

59:31

that you have a little bit of a bad boy

59:33

side thea we have pushed the envelope sometimes. Hopefully

59:35

we do that here on the season.

59:37

Maybe a bad boy that still eats vegetable so

59:39

I.

59:39

Know, even the rascals. Yeah,

59:43

all right. Uber Eats is our sponsor. The season

59:45

with Peter Schrager is delivering results done by Uber

59:47

Eats. It's time for delivering results. The player I want

59:49

to shout out is Joe Flacco. It happened on

59:51

a Thursday night game, so it's already been forgotten because

59:53

so many things have happened. But he guy threw for two

59:56

hundred and ninety eight yards and a half, the most he's ever

59:58

thrown four and a half. And he did it at thirty eight after

1:00:00

a week of hype and build up, and just went on and just

1:00:03

thrashed the Jets. Then it

1:00:05

seemed like he fell a sleep on the sideline

1:00:07

in the second half and came out and he was like, I wasn't asleep.

1:00:09

Yeah, you were probably asleep It's all good, Joe.

1:00:12

What Joe Flacco is doing is insane. I

1:00:14

love seeing it. One of the coolest stories

1:00:16

of the year. He's your comeback player of the year. I

1:00:18

know Hamlin came back from near tragedy.

1:00:21

Take a sit in the field. Maybe we just named

1:00:23

the award that the Mar Hamblin Comeback Player of the Year,

1:00:26

and you give the award to Joe Flacco,

1:00:28

who has I think, put on

1:00:30

such an amazing performance, has galvanized this

1:00:32

Cleveland locker room and has given the city a reason for

1:00:34

hope. Jason mccordy earlier

1:00:36

today on Good Morning Football, we

1:00:38

were talking about that Detroit, LA first round

1:00:40

matchup, whether that's the most scintillating

1:00:43

possible matchup in the playoffs and then includes Super Bowl

1:00:45

everything he goes. Could you imagine Las Vegas gets

1:00:47

their first Super Bowl and Detroit and Cleveland

1:00:50

are the teams, and those two cities descend

1:00:52

upon Las Vegas, every fan who has not seen

1:00:54

a Super Bowl ever in their lives going

1:00:56

there for Super Bowl. It's possible. Both those teams are

1:00:59

playing inspired football and Joe Flacco

1:01:01

I wouldn't bet against him right now that

1:01:03

was delivering results been by Uber Eats where you

1:01:05

can get almost almost anything, the official

1:01:07

on demand delivery partner of the NFL.

1:01:10

Order Now, next week we'll be in the playoffs.

1:01:12

We'll have a whole different feeling and tone to this thing. But

1:01:14

thank you to Steve Kornaki, Thank you to Aaron wan Kaufman,

1:01:17

Thank you to Jason English. New Year's to everybody,

1:01:19

Happy New Year's, Happy New Years to our official

1:01:21

team of the season with Peter Scherger,

1:01:24

the Arizona Wildcats, who not only

1:01:26

won their bowl game, but will finish in the top ten

1:01:28

in the AP rankings. When we

1:01:30

had jedfish on in August coming off I think

1:01:32

a one win season from a year ago. So

1:01:35

kudos to Jed and kudos to all those Arizona

1:01:37

Wildcat bear Down fans who

1:01:39

work on this podcast on the West Coast. You

1:01:41

guys know who you are. Till next week, Let's

1:01:44

go. The

1:01:53

Season with Peter Schrager is a production

1:01:55

of the NFL in partnership with iHeartRadio.

1:01:58

For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio

1:02:01

app, Apple Podcasts, wherever

1:02:03

you get your podcasts.