Tara Palmeri sits down with Robert Wolf, former chairman and CEO of UBS and informal economic advisor to President Obama during the 2008 financial crisis, to break down the economic and political chaos gripping the country. They open with Trump's Operation Project Freedom — the failed attempt to guide ships through the mined Strait of Hormuz that Iran immediately threatened to shoot down — and Robert explains why the real story is the 900 million barrels of lost oil supply, the worst energy shock since Carter in the 1970s. Diesel is at an all-time high, gas is heading past $5, Africa is months from famine over fertilizer shortages, and Trump's disapproval just hit 62% — the highest of both terms combined. Robert unpacks the K-shaped economy, why savings rates are at a three-year low, the AI economy that's propping up GDP through CapEx while threatening middle-tier jobs, why he publicly backed Kevin Warsh for Fed chair on Fox, and his fear that stagflation is next. Then they turn to politics: the DNC autopsy report that donors paid for but nobody's seen, why Robert hasn't given a cent to Democrats in 2025 for the first time in 20 years, how Senate flip chances jumped from 10–15% to 40%, the California governor's race becoming a "s**t show," and why the Democratic Party needs a real economic message instead of just being anti-Trump 24/7.

0:45 – Operation Project Freedom: Trump's guided missile destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz 1:43 – Robert: "They're going to guide, not escort — what ships will go through mines on their own?" 4:34 – Trump as marketer-in-chief: "He could declare victory and pivot to a deal" 6:58 – Tara: Africa is months from famine — they need fertilizer to plant crops 9:18 – Trump's 62% disapproval — highest of both terms combined 12:58 – Generic Democrat still only marginally more popular than generic Republican at -21 favorability 15:12 – In this inflationary environment, the Fed probably won't lower rates 16:58 – Tara: Who's paying for the Strait of Hormuz gamble? All of us 17:51 – Gerrymandering and redistricting mean maps are locked — maybe no blue wave 22:38 – The populist wing — Bernie, AOC — has a better message right now 26:47 – Senate flip chances went from 10–15% to 40% — Alaska, Texas, Maine all in play 27:22 – Is that because of weak Republican candidates? "It's both" 30:57 – Trump backing Hilton was a negative Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices