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we have Patreon memberships that start at just $5

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1:54

Team House. Hello, everyone.

1:56

Welcome to another episode of Eyes

1:58

On. And... I'm going

2:00

to introduce you very quickly, not

2:02

because you are less important than

2:04

our guest. But

2:06

of course we have Dee. That's a

2:09

fair assessment. Yeah. Yeah.

2:11

But most importantly, we have as

2:13

I guessed, someone who has been

2:16

on Tim House before, Mick Mulroy.

2:19

Also, importantly, someone I counted

2:21

as a friend. That's not why

2:23

he's here. He's here because he is the former

2:25

– I'm going to mess

2:27

this up. I always do. Dazney, Assistant

2:31

Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and

2:33

Low Intensity Conflict, Deputy Assistant Secretary of

2:35

Defense. Oh, for the Middle East. Yeah,

2:37

for the Middle East. Oh, I'm for

2:39

the Middle East. I'm sorry. And

2:43

former CIA paramilitary

2:46

officer and perhaps most

2:48

importantly, former Marine, which is why

2:51

which is why Jason's not here today

2:54

because Jack has a very strict

2:56

policy of no three

2:58

Marines on air at

3:00

the same time. Two is the cap. If

3:02

I had more than one, if I had

3:04

more than two, I'd get my ass chewed

3:06

from Jack. No, seriously, we did have complaints.

3:08

We had one – oh, Alex, Alex Hollings,

3:11

we had three Marines here. And yeah,

3:13

we were criticized for not being sufficiently

3:15

joined. Can you believe that? Anyway, Mick

3:20

also runs the Lobo Institute. I'm

3:22

going to let him talk about

3:24

that. And he's involved

3:27

in something very important right now

3:29

that he can't talk about. We

3:31

can discuss it lightly without jeopardizing

3:33

the operation itself. But you heard

3:35

it first here on Eyes On.

3:38

Mick, welcome. And you are

3:40

absolutely in stream the consciousness mode

3:42

as far as I am concerned.

3:45

So please, far away. Institute.

4:00

That is the company that myself and

4:03

Eric Ulrich, a former squadron commander,

4:05

retired SEAL from a

4:07

dev group founded around five

4:09

years ago. The principle behind

4:11

it is it brings former

4:14

military folks, intelligence folks

4:16

together, along with former humanitarians,

4:18

whether it's UN, USAID,

4:21

or private NGOs. So it's a

4:23

mixture, of course, Andy is part

4:25

of it, but it's a

4:27

mixture of groups that can

4:30

take the skills that they've learned and experience that

4:32

they've had in their past life, kind

4:35

of fuse them together to do good in

4:37

conflict areas today. And that

4:39

is exactly what we're doing and we've done it in Afghanistan.

4:42

Can you

4:45

give some examples of the work that

4:47

you've done? Nick, I'm of course familiar

4:49

with it, but it's a lot

4:52

of good stuff, in my view, under the

4:54

radar. And it goes to redress the

5:02

balance, perhaps the perception of guys

5:04

like us as

5:06

being unconcerned with social

5:09

issues, international.

5:17

I'm stumbling here, but what I'm

5:19

trying to say is that we

5:21

are indeed warm-hearted human beings with

5:24

empathy that extends beyond the borders of

5:27

the United States. And you and your

5:29

peers are proving that. I

5:32

agree. And I think we're seeing a lot

5:34

more than just the global institute do this.

5:36

Like if you look at the fall of

5:38

Afghanistan, just how many of that stepped up

5:40

to do what was essentially purely humanitarian effort

5:42

to get our partners out of harm's way.

5:45

Some people, I mean, literally, and I was

5:47

part of it, you were part of

5:50

it, basically threw away their whatever job they were

5:52

doing to make that happen. And I think we're

5:54

seeing that continue. So that

5:57

is true. There is a lot of former

5:59

military folks, former soft folks

6:01

that are getting into that. And they're, quite

6:03

frankly, really good at it because that is

6:05

the environment they spent their whole career in,

6:07

very dynamic environments of which you have to

6:09

figure things out. There's a lot of answers,

6:11

not a lot of books written about it.

6:14

And you have to do it with personality.

6:16

You have to do it with tenacity. And

6:18

I think we're seeing a lot more of

6:20

our brethren get into that. And

6:22

it's a good thing. So what we've

6:25

done specifically, we have worked

6:27

long term on Afghanistan. So we

6:30

just finished the program. It went

6:32

on since the, essentially, the withdraw

6:35

that we had until recently, working

6:37

with the State Department on people

6:39

that did not have the ability

6:41

to get out because they didn't

6:44

meet the immigration requirements for special

6:46

emergency visas. But as far

6:48

as the Taliban was concerned, they were on

6:50

the chopping block. So the worst case scenario,

6:52

they can't come out because they don't have

6:55

the qualifications, the time, et cetera. But the

6:57

Taliban still knows they worked directly with the

6:59

US government. Some, you know,

7:01

straight with the military or the agency. Some

7:03

just with the State Department or even the

7:05

Agriculture Department. So people that were far removed

7:07

from anything the Taliban should have cared about,

7:09

they were still on the chopping block literally

7:12

for that. So we worked with them

7:14

both from a security side Which

7:17

wasn't well covered at the time, right? I mean, there

7:19

was a lot of media attention on

7:22

what was the category that we put, the

7:26

special sensitive individuals

7:28

that we wanted to get out. But the Taliban, you

7:30

know. Yeah, the

7:33

commandos and the CTPTs or the zero

7:35

units got a lot of attention as

7:37

they should. They were certainly the highest

7:39

on the list of the Taliban. But

7:41

this is even like doctors or agricultural

7:44

engineers and people who worked

7:47

with the US Agriculture Department to make

7:49

Afghanistan a better place. You know, just, but they

7:52

were still on the list. So we took our

7:54

security skills and our humanitarian. So

7:56

got them food, medicine and everything

7:58

they needed but also kept them one. step

8:00

ahead of the Taliban and we did that

8:03

for quite a long time. How

8:06

do you do fundraising? You

8:09

guys do these things, but

8:12

I don't see a lot of

8:15

visible fundraising. That's

8:17

right. I've got very raw memories

8:19

of the Mozart group where that consumed

8:21

maybe 80% of my time. That

8:24

wasn't in operations. Right.

8:27

So we worked for the state

8:29

government on that project, so we didn't have

8:31

to fundraise. We had worked in Yemen for

8:34

the United Nations. For

8:37

working for who now is a

8:39

good friend of mine, Martin Griffith,

8:42

who is the overall humanitarian undersecretary

8:44

general for the United Nations. But

8:47

at the time he was the UN Special

8:49

Envoy in the...

8:54

And so that's...we worked for that. It

8:56

was a direct, you

8:58

know, business...not business, but an

9:00

advisory relationship with the UN. And

9:03

now we're doing stuff specifically with

9:06

Gaza. But that's...it's not sensitive in a sense. Like

9:08

it's not some covert operation. It's not of that.

9:10

It's just pure humanitarian. But it's in the middle

9:12

of setting up and that's why I really can't

9:15

get into the details of that right now. Yeah,

9:19

do you want me to just kind of frame it

9:22

and then, you know,

9:24

you can...we can talk our way

9:27

through it without you being on FinLife. So,

9:29

and it's like, yeah, we can just

9:31

talk about, you know, I'm an analyst for ABC,

9:33

so I'm happy to talk about all the issues

9:36

that you guys want. Yeah, yeah, please. If I

9:38

could just say one more thing about Lobo Institute.

9:40

We also run an NGO called In Child Soldering,

9:43

which is a 501c3. And

9:46

it is exactly what it says. You know,

9:48

it's an NGO dedicated to stop

9:50

the use of children in armed conflict, which

9:52

is a horrible problem

9:55

that's growing every

9:57

day, quite frankly, because these conflicts continue.

10:00

That and the people fighting man ticket

10:02

younger and younger and we've gone far

10:04

away from. It. Are whole men? Starting.

10:06

Wars and All Men Fighting Wars is now. Not.

10:09

It all meant starting wars. Young men

10:11

fighting wars. It's it's kids fighting wars.

10:16

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11:46

Last was such a spotter or so

11:48

we have. Ah and yeah, we did

11:50

a documentary on. To. Former

11:52

Hell or a soldier's. Ah,

11:55

Documentary called my Star, the Sky It's Gonna Be

11:57

Made into It is made into a book called.

12:00

Are all the glimmering stars you to come up?

12:02

My amazon? In May. So happy

12:04

if you see all your Mac forget

12:06

it unlocks all been marked second Or

12:09

have a great friend who is a

12:11

Montana author and a New York Times

12:13

bestselling author heard about the story came

12:15

to us. When. To Uganda

12:17

with us met everybody and

12:20

ah. In In now I

12:22

can be happy to send you a book

12:24

about it as copies. Yeah that all that

12:26

okay said. Okay anyway a launched segment on

12:28

this point surrounding a wrestler David. Bring Mark

12:30

yeah we'll bring a me night if is

12:32

that a fascinating story. Yeah now put organ

12:35

links in everything to in the description to

12:37

a level institute into the are going up

12:39

the dogs out yeah preferred like the pre

12:41

order for the book and everything like that

12:43

are put on description. Yeah, it's

12:45

in, it's out for preorder and a

12:48

portion of the book is going to

12:50

our by the one C three and

12:52

are fiber one C three only. Ah,

12:54

contribute to group, sit around the field

12:57

doing. Get. Out the work with

12:59

the kids to rehabilitate of. There's no. there's

13:01

no salaried employee. At

13:05

the end of this pretty momentous yeah guess

13:07

is, As three volunteers, it goes straight to

13:09

the groups that are actually out there. Teach.

13:12

In a former she told your

13:14

how to fix the track of

13:16

work data plan you know a

13:18

garden or you know raised. Keep.

13:20

Well as it's directly to the

13:23

rehabilitate. Alternate. Means of

13:25

living Apple. Yeah. Exactly.

13:27

Yet. So on. The

13:30

the situation now in in in

13:32

Gaza I of course I'm one

13:34

of the or many fans on

13:36

A B C V and not

13:38

just saying that to be sycophantic

13:40

actually make make mix one of

13:42

those welcome to not as usual

13:44

under sycophantic Africa has no gunmen

13:46

with a mix one of those

13:49

well current those welcome faces on

13:51

Tv in A because there are

13:53

some guys who get dragged out

13:55

to talk in a military expert

13:57

former lieutenant Colonel Baobab line in

13:59

a disguise. I

14:01

talks draw saw he's reading from the

14:03

cover the New York Times. better than

14:05

make really good said am. I

14:08

I I think I think in a

14:10

short segment that you're allowed. Ah yeah,

14:12

you really do. Do. I

14:14

have a knack of breaking down

14:16

complicated things for the American public.

14:19

So. Congrats on that but yet issue

14:21

they haven't built under pressure on you

14:23

please? yes other about Gaza. Yes,

14:27

have big topic obviously is an

14:29

all consuming for much of us

14:31

for last. Several. Months

14:33

I take the stage right now

14:35

is. We. Have the a

14:37

dire humanitarian. Crisis going.

14:40

On. And before the war

14:42

started, there's around five hundred trucks of

14:44

food aid coming and asked about the

14:46

same amount of commercial. Enough

14:49

for sale, material, cabinet, and about

14:51

sixty percent of the population relied

14:53

on it. Now. There's.

14:56

About thirty trucks coming in a day of

14:58

food aid. Sometimes he gets to one hundred.

15:00

And. One hundred percent of the two

15:03

point three million.com person population relies on,

15:05

so we're selling. How many how many

15:07

should that be make in order to

15:09

sustain the local population? Do do we

15:11

know if you can break that into

15:14

daily truckloads. Yes, So

15:16

if if we will now because

15:18

we have one hundred percent of

15:20

the population before sixty you can,

15:22

you could add to about nine

15:24

hundred truckloads of direct humanitarian aid

15:26

is needed. Ah, to come into

15:28

Gaza and not just into the

15:31

southern part because the infrastructure and

15:33

we can get into the conflict

15:35

itself but he infrastructure so damage

15:37

that they can't get up into

15:39

the northern part of the country

15:41

where around. Hard to estimate A.from

15:43

talking directly to the idea, Ah,

15:45

take estimate around one hundred thousand people

15:48

are still up in the north a

15:50

centrally living in the rubble and they

15:52

have a very difficult time getting aid

15:55

to the so that's why i think

15:57

a lot of these countries started the

15:59

airdrops They

16:02

are, I think, everybody would acknowledge a

16:04

drop in the bucket. Even

16:06

with the U.S., who is the, you know,

16:09

biased but the most effective at doing this,

16:11

every drops around two to

16:14

three truckloads, right?

16:16

So that's why there

16:18

is this big push to open

16:20

a maritime corridor in

16:23

which you can deliver aid in bulk, basically

16:26

doubling if not tripling the aid that's

16:29

coming in now and then as

16:31

it develops quadrupling and

16:34

whatever comes after quadruple, aid

16:37

into parts of Gaza which

16:39

can't be reached, right,

16:41

right now. So that is something

16:43

that the president referenced in the State of the Union

16:45

and something that needs to happen. And

16:47

so that's a really, that's, you

16:51

know, that's part of, one of the hardest parts

16:53

of distribution, right? One is, you know,

16:55

one is entry point into Gaza,

16:57

getting through that bottleneck but the

16:59

other is distribution within Gaza to

17:01

these areas, right? Yeah. I

17:04

mean, that's absolutely right. That's going

17:06

to be a tough knot that as yet

17:08

is unsolved but you are working on solving.

17:11

That is, that's a good point, Andy. So the

17:14

answer isn't whether it should be air,

17:16

ground or maritime. The answer is all

17:18

the above, right? Yeah. Yeah. So

17:20

lots of people create these, you know,

17:22

these kind of false choices here. We need

17:25

to have entry points, ground. We need to

17:27

have air drops until we have

17:29

stabilized the situation and we need to

17:31

obviously have a maritime corridor. But to

17:33

your point on distribution, that has gotten

17:35

very difficult. We saw the

17:39

rushing of the trucks in which

17:42

people were either run over or

17:44

were shot by IDF troops that thought they had

17:47

a, they posed a threat. I don't know

17:49

the answer to that but that's generally what

17:51

happened. So it's going to be difficult.

17:54

I think the way to deal with

17:56

this is to try to flood the

17:58

zone with humanitarian aid. And

18:00

that means substantial amounts of air drops

18:02

done by competent people. The

18:06

US should be leading that effort.

18:08

We saw, unfortunately, that a non-US

18:10

air drop yesterday had

18:12

multiple failures of

18:14

parachutes that crushed six

18:17

kits. And I know that happens,

18:19

but it was also, I looked

18:21

at it, dropped right over the city. And

18:23

as you are well known, you don't want to

18:26

be under one of these pallets, even if it

18:28

does have a fully deployed parachute. So the US

18:30

is going to do it in a manner that

18:32

drops it close enough so people can get to

18:34

it, but not directly over their current, where

18:39

they reside. That needs to happen,

18:41

but it needs to also be

18:44

pointed out that it will never meet the demand. So it

18:46

needs to be supplemental to... And

18:48

again, in order

18:50

to work or integrate needs, someone

18:53

on the ground, frankly, to help with

18:55

distribution, otherwise you get

18:58

kind of a survival of the fittest thing,

19:00

right? With air drops, that's part of the

19:02

problem is that the groups of people who

19:04

are most able to get

19:06

hold of those supplies are the ones who get hold

19:08

of those supplies. That's right. That's

19:11

right. And to the distribution, it

19:13

should be under the UN, under the

19:15

international aid organizations that are there. And

19:17

it probably should be Palestinians to be

19:21

frank. But of course, that also

19:23

needs to be done completely in

19:26

line with Israeli security

19:28

concerns. I mean, it isn't a

19:31

secret that Hamas was armed to the

19:33

teeth and a lot

19:35

of that came in, smuggled, some

19:37

of them potentially with humanitarian assistance.

19:40

And we saw what happened on October

19:43

7th. So this needs to be a

19:45

balance with a critical need for innocent

19:47

Palestinians and billions to be able to

19:50

get food, medicine and clean water,

19:53

and Israeli security concerns that they don't

19:55

see another October 7th. So

19:57

that is the balance. And then of course, this

20:00

is all happening at a time when Hamas finds

20:03

it completely acceptable to not only

20:05

hide amongst its civilian population but

20:08

to exploit the conditions that they're

20:10

in for their own political gain.

20:12

In my opinion, they actually don't

20:14

mind that there is all these

20:16

horrible things going on. They use

20:18

it for their own political benefit.

20:20

They often steal food

20:22

from civilians that otherwise can't

20:25

defend themselves to be able to get it

20:27

and then they just hoard it from themselves.

20:29

So all those things are a balance but

20:32

ultimately a little kid is a little kid.

20:34

No matter what

20:36

innocent civilian is an innocent civilian and

20:38

they should not have

20:40

to be on the brink of

20:42

starvation because of Hamas's

20:45

actions against Israel. Mik,

20:47

is anything being done then to, and

20:49

I know this is a very tough

20:52

question, to

20:54

coordinate or raise a, and

20:56

I use the term with

20:58

small, you know, a Palestinian

21:01

authority. In Gaza, UNRWA

21:04

has been discredited in

21:06

the sense that it's been discredited.

21:09

I mean, trying to work through UNRWA

21:11

with the Israelis is all

21:13

kinds of reasons, probably not a good idea at this

21:15

stage. But is

21:18

there any alternatives as far

21:20

as local humanitarian association organizations

21:22

that the IDF will let

21:24

function? So

21:27

that is a very complex but good

21:29

question. So UNRWA was created literally in

21:31

1949. There's about 13,000

21:36

employees in Gaza, all of them were

21:38

Palestinians. A handful took

21:41

part in the October 7th attacks,

21:44

which is completely unacceptable. But

21:46

more, I

21:48

think concerning is essentially the Hamas

21:51

headquarters was right under the UNRWA

21:53

headquarters. It was tied in for

21:55

electricity and everything. So in my

21:58

opinion, that was... known

22:00

to those who ran UNRWA.

22:03

So it is understandably not

22:05

an organization of which Israel

22:07

will work with. But

22:10

unfortunately, that was the infrastructure,

22:12

the complex overtime infrastructure to

22:16

distribute aid. So I hope there is

22:18

a compromise that can be where we

22:20

can utilize individuals that are in that

22:23

network to distribute aid and then vet

22:25

them for their connections

22:27

to terrorist organizations like Hamas.

22:30

And if they are, they need to be out

22:32

of any group that's funded

22:34

by the United Nations, which of course, 22%

22:38

of the funding comes from the United States. But

22:40

the United Nations itself should

22:43

just find that unacceptable. But the problem

22:45

is there is innocent civilians that need

22:47

to have aid distributed. So there's no

22:49

easy answer. But I think working together

22:52

with the Israelis and the

22:54

UN and the international community, there needs to

22:56

be a way to get this

22:58

aid distributed time out. Hey,

23:01

guys. It's Jack. I just wanted to talk

23:03

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23:56

Right now, I mean, I know

23:59

US efforts. that are under

24:01

discussion them about setting up a

24:03

you know at that point offshore

24:05

maybe j lots of which a

24:07

joint logistics over the shore arms

24:09

capability had a feel I feel

24:11

compelled to stolen after that these

24:13

tiny bit this but as things

24:16

that ah yes the Us military

24:18

can put in place we can

24:20

talk about security later but it

24:22

takes time you know it takes

24:24

the day it gets. We do.

24:27

You. Know get around and place for

24:29

the weeks and Dvd need now is

24:31

immediate on someone you know news yesterday

24:34

in in non. In reliable

24:36

Media about Kids in the Starving

24:38

as you point out, and literally

24:41

meaning a thinker, five kids yesterday

24:43

starve to death and now in

24:45

in Central Gaza so they didn't

24:47

need his immediate the Edu. Is

24:50

on It has his song about

24:53

now. I'm sending opening a maritime

24:55

curdle right? is that Emmy? What are

24:57

the prospects of that working well and

24:59

obviously that one of the plans going

25:01

head to integrate that with with your

25:04

efforts and we do. You think that's.

25:06

That's. Gonna be. Something. That

25:08

that helps all. The. Thing is

25:11

just in practical. i think

25:13

it it will absolutely help in a

25:15

manner that is much more affected than

25:17

any other crime ops with an option

25:20

is tied to mechanics like airdrops not

25:22

being special are tied to politics like

25:24

opening other entry points from israel into

25:27

got essentially the families of the hostages

25:29

are understandably now are you have to

25:31

put yourself in their shoes are blocking

25:34

because they want their love one out

25:36

if we are she'd been taken hostage

25:38

south there's plentiful aspect to that it's

25:40

that is makes it very difficult and

25:43

a maritime quarter can bring more hate

25:45

and that either of the our to

25:47

so i do think it's something that

25:50

is gonna happen the president mentioned that

25:52

instead of union i do think it

25:54

will be a public private partnerships oaks

25:56

the us military will do things like

25:59

our greatest peer, which commercial

26:02

entities can use, although there's

26:04

other options to create temporary

26:07

birthing sites that can offload

26:09

aid into Gaza right now.

26:11

So I think that will be very

26:14

complementary and in

26:16

unison. And it can

26:18

happen in relatively short time if

26:20

the international aid community does

26:22

more than just talk, that

26:24

they start contributing to

26:27

plans that they believe are very

26:29

effective and can be done. If they do that,

26:33

the desperation currently in Gaza, especially

26:35

in the north, can be alleviated

26:37

within weeks, I think, potentially a

26:39

month. We could have it

26:42

stabilized. And then, of course, there will

26:44

be the other discussions on how

26:46

the war is going to

26:48

end, whether Raffa should happen, the

26:50

assault down there, and then how we're going to go

26:52

forward on any kind of diplomatic solution

26:55

where this doesn't become a continuous

26:57

cycle. Mick, I have a question.

27:00

You mentioned it

27:02

needs to be a multi-pronged attack, right?

27:04

Air, land, whatever.

27:07

What role does Egypt play? They share

27:09

a border with Gaza, share it

27:12

southern, the majority

27:14

of the aid needs to go to the north. What's

27:17

their role? Do they do anything? Yeah.

27:21

So they're a significant partner

27:24

both in aid coming into Egypt and

27:26

then coming through the Raffa gate, which

27:28

is where a majority of

27:30

the aid's coming from, even though it's been shut

27:33

down several times. And of course, we're

27:35

looking at a potential assault on the

27:38

Raffa area, which could completely shut down

27:40

the Raffa crossing, to no fault, of

27:42

course, to the Egyptians. But

27:45

that is something that could happen. They're

27:47

also playing a significant part in the

27:50

ceasefire negotiations. Egypt,

27:52

the United States, and obviously Israel,

27:54

and Hamas, and Qatar are playing

27:56

to try to come up with

27:58

a currently right now. a

28:00

temporary six-week truce,

28:03

if you will, so that aid

28:05

can flow in more readily, that

28:07

hostages can be released, and

28:10

that we can start a long-term discussion

28:13

on how this war will end, including

28:15

potentially for Hamas leaders to depart Gaza.

28:18

There's a lot of different aspects. In

28:20

the same way, I guess, Arafat

28:22

left Beirut

28:25

for Tunis, right? Yes. Second

28:28

AD2, similar. Mick, do

28:30

these plans depend on a ceasefire?

28:34

So the humanitarian plan does not necessarily

28:36

need to depend on a ceasefire, and

28:38

I think that's where the U.S. government

28:41

has been very forceful. We

28:43

can't use the deprivation of

28:45

civilians from food as a negotiation

28:48

point, and I'm not saying Israel's

28:50

doing that. But

28:52

that was a comment by the

28:54

president, actually yesterday. Yeah. Right. So

28:57

very pointed. Right. You

29:00

know, we have, as you would

29:03

guess in MOBO, a lot of connections to

29:05

the IDF, a lot of very good friends.

29:07

So I'm not saying that they're doing that,

29:09

but if it's perceived to be rule-let-aid into

29:11

people, civilians, women, and children

29:13

who are starving, if you do that, that

29:16

is not, I think, an effective way

29:19

of bargaining from the international

29:21

communities, including the United States

29:23

perspective. So I do think

29:25

this should go ahead regardless of an

29:28

agreement on the ceasefire. Yeah,

29:30

that's thanks. That was a

29:32

key question that has not been covered in the

29:34

media, I think,

29:36

probably because a lot of people don't know, you know,

29:38

that's speculating. That's

29:41

right. So

29:45

the other thing I wanted to talk about

29:47

was the security. I know, you know, security

29:49

plan, it hasn't even been worked out, but,

29:52

you know, for the benefit of the audience, we've

29:56

all got memories of Afghanistan, right, fresh in

29:58

mind about the fact that If you

30:00

have, yes, I'm not

30:02

comparing the IDF to the Taliban, but

30:04

if you have someone providing security in

30:07

an outer zone like that, you're

30:11

taking a risk if it's not your people,

30:13

bottom line. And so

30:15

we're kind of potentially as US in

30:17

that position, again, whereby we don't put

30:19

boots on the ground. I

30:22

know where there's gonna be

30:25

some exceptions to that, particularly

30:28

capabilities, but nevertheless, for

30:31

the most part, so doing

30:33

this offshore, but still very much a

30:35

target reliant on the

30:37

Israelis to provide security on shore,

30:39

and again, not a hit on

30:41

any other part of the nation

30:44

force, but just

30:46

doctrinally, that always feels, I

30:48

mean, even in soft,

30:50

you try to avoid that as much as

30:52

you can, where you're totally dependent on

30:55

an unknown

30:57

quantity, right? And

31:01

that's gonna be a hard part. Yes,

31:03

and as you know, the IDF is a very

31:05

capable military force,

31:07

right? They have some really good units,

31:09

and overall, they're really, really an

31:12

effective military. So

31:16

I think there is gonna have to be

31:18

a component where the IDF does secure any

31:20

of these landing sites,

31:23

aid delivery sites on the beach, but

31:25

the UN also has certain requirements that they're

31:28

not essentially in complete

31:31

cooperation, so they're not on top of each other. So

31:34

that's gonna have to be worked out. There'll have to

31:36

be some effective way to, as the president said, there's

31:38

not gonna be US military on the ground, and that's

31:40

not gonna happen. And that's, I think, we don't wanna

31:43

see something like Somalia happen, where

31:45

we get there and everybody greets

31:48

the US military, the Marine

31:50

Corps is saviors, and then three

31:52

weeks later, they decide they were not, and

31:55

then there's sheep at us, and then there's

31:57

a war, and then there's what happened with

31:59

Black. So I think that

32:02

makes sense. But it does – and they don't need

32:04

to be. They don't need to be. There's

32:06

effective ways to distribute aid because this is not

32:08

a military. This is a humanitarian

32:10

effort. So in using

32:12

the Palestinians, as you

32:15

well know for all your time as

32:17

in counterinsurgency type warfare,

32:19

it's difficult and different

32:22

when your uncle's distributing the aid

32:24

on behalf. You

32:26

tend not to want to shoot at your

32:28

uncle or your nephew or your brother. So

32:30

it needs to be Palestinians ultimately that are

32:32

distributing the aid to Palestinians because that is

32:34

different. That is viewed differently. So that

32:36

kind of interface between what entity

32:38

that's coming to the beach is

32:40

and then what entity is distributing

32:42

it to the Palestinian people, that

32:44

needs to be worked out. But

32:46

ultimately, it needs to be the

32:48

Palestinian people under the umbrella

32:51

of the United Nations' invalidated

32:55

international aid organization.

32:57

So those that are there for

32:59

the right reasons distributing it under

33:02

the principles of humanitarian aid, not

33:04

for political reasons, not to –

33:07

that needs to happen. And I think that is essentially

33:10

where this will be going with the

33:12

idea of course, over-watching

33:14

just in case it turns into

33:17

a simple disruption situation that becomes dangerous,

33:19

not only for the people that are distributing it,

33:21

but the people that are there to get it,

33:23

of course, because ultimately they end up being just

33:25

as much as the victim. Yeah,

33:30

I mean, the administration has said,

33:32

look, we're not waiting on the

33:34

Israelis to execute

33:36

this, but of course the reality is that

33:38

we do need their

33:41

own complicity,

33:44

if not – I mean, we need that collaboration. And

33:47

what's going to be interesting to see though

33:49

is whether the

33:53

operation still goes ahead, even if Hamas

33:56

overtly opposes it, which seems unlikely that

33:58

that would be – just a

34:00

really bad PR call for

34:03

Hamas, which is a

34:05

card in our favor, right? I

34:08

say. Yeah, I agree. I mean, they

34:11

have showed a callous disregard to the people

34:13

of Palestine, right? I mean, the atrocities on

34:15

October 7, and we

34:17

don't have to repeat them here, but if

34:19

your audience is familiar with them, they're

34:24

so atrocious, I don't even know that there's a

34:27

word for it. So I think they did

34:29

so knowing that that would cause a reaction.

34:31

Okay. Yeah. Bring this on to

34:33

God. I mean, you don't, you don't have

34:36

to be a political liberally designed deliberately designed

34:38

to do that. Yeah, absolutely.

34:41

And they had ever since then they've hid right under,

34:44

you know, not just their civilian population,

34:46

but the most significant part

34:48

like schools and hospitals, right? So people that

34:50

are the most vulnerable and who, who the

34:53

military or any security force should be designed

34:55

to protect the most. I think

34:57

they use them in the consequences

34:59

of our actions, trying to politically

35:02

and unfortunately, effectively in some

35:04

cases. But yes, I do think

35:06

for your point, they would be

35:09

hard pressed to attack humanitarians distributing

35:12

aid Palestinians to Palestinian people who are

35:14

on the verge of starvation. I

35:17

agree. Yeah. Which, which means we

35:20

hope that that is not a

35:22

precondition of

35:24

the art. That's right. That's right.

35:27

It shouldn't be. Do you

35:29

think there's any chance that

35:32

IDF or the Israeli government in general will drag their feet with

35:34

this, especially if

35:38

they're providing the security. So

35:40

I don't think so. I mean, there's different

35:42

political wins,

35:45

if you will, in Israel, just like there

35:47

is in the United States. I mean, I think there's

35:51

a lot of

35:55

political analysts, but essentially this

35:57

won't happen unless they agree. So those that are concerned that's

35:59

this would have a negative

36:02

impact on Israeli security, I would

36:04

simply say it's not gonna happen

36:07

unless the Israelis agree with it. So

36:09

if they're okay with it, they're

36:12

the people that are most, I think,

36:14

concerned about their own security. I think that

36:16

should be an indicator to anybody else that

36:19

they believe it does not harm their security.

36:21

So if it goes ahead, that

36:24

would be my position to

36:26

people who are concerned about whether

36:29

this would jeopardize Israeli security as they

36:31

don't think so. I

36:33

think, you know, yeah, just

36:36

a quick opinion on this that

36:40

I think you can overstate the threat. When

36:42

you have an ongoing operation like this, you

36:44

can overstate the threat of having weapons come

36:46

in. The real thing that you're concerned about

36:48

are fighters escaping and being able to return

36:51

or coming into areas where you've already cleared.

36:53

You know, I'm talking about from experience in

36:55

Fallujah. You know, it didn't make any difference

36:57

to us at this stage where the weapons

36:59

or munitions are coming in because as a

37:01

process, they have to be integrated. You know,

37:04

it takes time and they're very vulnerable while

37:06

they're doing that. But the other

37:08

point is that that's

37:11

been overlooked on this and this isn't a hit on

37:13

the Israelis. You know, I suppose it is, but it

37:16

could equally be a hit on us too, that

37:19

New York Times did, you know, one of

37:21

their investigative reports, which are generally

37:24

pretty good and came up with the

37:26

conclusion that most of the munitions used in

37:28

the rocket attacks on 7th October, actually,

37:31

or a lot of it, significant proportion came from

37:33

the IDF themselves, from all the ordnance they dropped

37:35

on guards. And my point is that

37:37

if you're in Hamas fighting

37:40

in guards right now, you want food,

37:42

you want water, you want shelter, you

37:44

want freedom of movement, you're probably not

37:46

that low on ammunition, I would guess.

37:48

You know what I mean? So

37:52

you can overstate the threat of weapons coming in.

37:55

That's what I'm saying. And I'm

37:57

not saying the Israelis are, I'm saying you can over...

38:00

state it and that and that almost

38:02

is problems as we've seen when

38:04

I got another humanitarian convoys there's a broader

38:07

like talk to us like you talk about

38:09

like you know they're concerned about Israel Israel

38:11

Israel is a concern about the security it

38:14

kind of seems like October 6th they really

38:17

weren't or they were asleep

38:19

at the job I mean I know that's a

38:21

longer longer that's I know it's I know it's

38:23

more of a broader topic like similar

38:26

to us you know pre 9-11 I guess I mean

38:28

I mean I guess we understood what was gonna happen we

38:30

had a good idea of it but we dropped the ball

38:34

there are a lot of parallels here to that you

38:36

know and I'm

38:38

not saying going into Afghanistan was a mistake I

38:40

don't think it was but what happened over the

38:43

last 20 years after that were probably there were

38:45

some miscues I think

38:48

Israel's running the running the risk

38:50

of doing the same thing because what's the endgame

38:53

in reality and yeah it is a longer conversation

38:55

but can they really

38:57

destroy Hamas is Hamas gonna go and go

38:59

to Qatar and live in like our luxury

39:01

condos and not worry about Mossad come

39:04

into like put two in the back of their heads

39:06

like we got to be realistic with this right like

39:09

I don't know what's the actual endgame

39:11

for Hamas and for Israel I

39:13

don't see it sir

39:16

did it to both your points and

39:19

you're right it is a lot of discussion but at

39:21

first it was clear was an intelligence failure we thought

39:23

and and that's they have

39:26

an exceptional intelligence service but sort of

39:28

we and to your point D we

39:30

had 9-11 right so it's

39:32

it's more of a critique with an

39:34

attempt to improve than just you know

39:37

criticism but then we found

39:39

out that a lot of the intelligence

39:41

was already known right that came out

39:44

clearly in the media they almost had their op

39:46

order I mean they even knew what they

39:48

were gonna do when they were gonna do it if you talked

39:50

it you know obviously I spent a lot of time in

39:52

Israel recently we talked to them they

39:55

consider it and I'm speaking for all of them

39:57

at least people I talked to particularly in the

40:00

a leadership failure in

40:02

that they had a lot of the information and

40:04

it wasn't acting on it. So I think

40:06

the... It didn't fit that preconceptions. Right.

40:11

They just said that's impossible. They wouldn't do that. They

40:13

don't have the capabilities. But they

40:15

essentially had somebody that was very close

40:17

to the operational planning because,

40:19

you know, from the press reports, it

40:21

laid out what was going to happen. So

40:24

if you talk to – and none of them, of course,

40:26

will talk on the record, but IDF

40:28

and intelligence folks, they

40:31

obviously take a lot of the

40:33

responsibility themselves. But they'll also

40:35

say this was fairly well known.

40:38

It wasn't taking serious. So that needs to be... Yeah,

40:40

sorry. Go ahead, Nick. ...that

40:42

we did. Yeah. That we're just saying. It needs

40:44

to be reviewed just like we did. They need

40:46

to adjust accordingly. So it

40:48

isn't just criticism for criticism's sake. It's, you

40:51

know, we want our partners to improve

40:54

their own security. D,

40:57

that's a really great –

40:59

I mean, it's a great question. And I

41:01

wasn't – yeah, absolutely, we should put a

41:03

whole podcast on this specifically. When

41:06

I was in Israel this time, I

41:08

asked that question of two former national

41:10

security advisors, a former deputy of Shin

41:13

Bet. I

41:15

mean, you know, I'm not just trolling this on

41:17

to – in an effort to impress, but I

41:19

– you know, I wasn't just getting speculation from

41:21

dudes on the ground. Here's some very quick points,

41:23

okay? The night before

41:25

the attack, something

41:29

between 40 and 80 new SIM cards,

41:31

Israeli SIM cards, popped up on the

41:33

network within Gaza, okay? The

41:38

ability now – the Israelis'

41:40

ability to pick up signals

41:42

intelligence within Gaza was awesome.

41:45

You know, there's only two phone

41:47

carriers within Gaza. So they could pick

41:49

up – it's just a question as

41:51

make no sub-data, like anything, it signals

41:53

intelligence. How many people you assign to

41:55

it? But this Triggered interest,

41:58

more than interest. So

42:00

the head of Shin bet. I got

42:02

up in the middle deny probe into

42:04

the office, called the Chief of Staff

42:06

at the Army to put this in

42:09

context. I was talking to a former

42:11

commander the the Gaza division or right

42:13

and he said hey, look within the

42:15

the midst of the fleeting and twenty

42:17

fourteen He called the chief of staff

42:19

maybe two times but here you know

42:22

he you have to hit of Sinbad

42:24

waiting out waking up the head of

42:26

the army. the head of the idea

42:28

essentially and they are talking about what

42:30

these Sim cards mean now. Who

42:33

recommended why will come out

42:35

in the investigation. But the

42:37

bottom line with Day agreed

42:39

together that this was probably

42:41

just a you know and

42:43

a periodic exercise because this

42:45

happens from time to time.

42:47

Armed by as make points

42:49

out what they didn't do

42:51

necessarily the synthesize this latest

42:53

in Decatur with a whole

42:55

bunch of things I would

42:58

being officially reported i'm most

43:00

famously perhaps by the Spotters.

43:02

right? The Israelis have a whole

43:04

battalion of women just women who

43:06

are cool with sponsors and right

43:08

that that that's not like and

43:10

that's all fashion sense of peering

43:13

with by knows stay off date.

43:15

They stare at screens, surveillance cameras

43:17

screens in in the in now

43:19

half a dozen idea of posts

43:21

around Gaza Now this lot of

43:23

questions at came about this one

43:25

of which was why were they

43:27

on armed, armed and and at

43:29

it But they had been reporting

43:32

on. He. The Spot as it's

43:34

a very interesting and a meaty. This is why

43:36

it could be a separate episode that you know

43:38

states a training to The Spot as think it's

43:40

each one of them months apart of Gaza all

43:42

right and and they just. They.

43:45

they have that part gaza under surveillance

43:47

they know it so well that they

43:49

recognize it senses people and that's what

43:51

they do nine hours a day in

43:53

and says throughout the day right so

43:55

they were picking up a ton of

43:58

stuff to ensued for russell's right,

44:00

with pickup trucks, even the

44:03

paraglider part, right? And

44:06

they were sending in these reports. And

44:09

we're ignored. And there are, you

44:11

know, I think when, as we pull this

44:13

apart, and the same has happened, as I

44:15

point out in every single military in the

44:17

world, or, I mean, national

44:19

security apparatus, we'll find that the problems

44:22

are not intelligence, they are cultural. And,

44:25

you know, this deeply seated belief

44:28

that Hamas could not pull it

44:30

off. But it's

44:32

a fascinating topic. And there's, you know,

44:34

there's many more, sadly,

44:37

many more stories here of

44:40

indications being brought to people

44:43

in position of authority to make decisions.

44:45

And those decisions were not made. Last

44:48

piece says, I have a lot of

44:50

controversy in Israel right now. I mean,

44:52

Netanyahu, perhaps not the most popular point

44:55

person there, but he is the

44:57

prime minister, wartime prime minister, and

45:00

the country has rallied around him, okay?

45:03

But controversy over

45:06

whether Netanyahu was informed, right? The

45:10

head of Shinbad, kind of unusual, you know, this, you

45:13

know, Netanyahu's kind of saying, hey,

45:15

man, I didn't know any

45:17

of this shit. My intel guys didn't tell me. And

45:19

now the head of Shinbad

45:22

at least is kicking, is pushing back a

45:24

little bit and saying, nope, we told you

45:26

about this publicly. So this isn't healthy, but

45:29

it's, you know, we're learning a lot

45:31

more about, no, it was

45:33

not an intelligence failure. It was a failure

45:36

of people. Yeah,

45:38

that was really fascinating.

45:40

So I'm not shining you on.

45:43

I really look forward to reading your book because

45:45

that whole thing, I mean, it's not

45:47

just for, I won't gladly

45:49

take it. That whole thing

45:51

is not just for the Israelis to review. I

45:53

think that will be a lot of lessons learned.

45:56

Oh, yeah. You know, intel

45:58

services, military. and police

46:00

forces around the world, right, even

46:03

as effective as they are, as impressive

46:06

as they have been in the past,

46:08

they can make mistakes, we can make

46:10

mistakes, that is something I think, seriously,

46:15

putting that all together would be really good

46:19

for a lot of intelligence services, militaries,

46:21

and law enforcement through it. Mick,

46:24

on that point, there are two other

46:26

points, very quickly, but the

46:28

Israelis had a really

46:31

good central open intelligence

46:33

unit, I forget what it was, but

46:36

the problem was, and I can't remember

46:39

if it fell under the IDF,

46:41

under military intelligence, or under Shinbad,

46:44

but the point is it was disbanded

46:47

several months ago, alright, I checked on this, someone,

46:49

one of the former national

46:51

security adviser told me that, I confirmed

46:53

it was, it was shut down, because

46:56

they felt that it was

46:59

better for each unit to have their own open source

47:01

intelligence, blah, blah, in other words, not

47:03

believing that it was

47:06

useful, and yet tons of

47:08

open source intelligence was coming

47:10

in, indicating an attack. A

47:12

lot of people, Arab speaking

47:14

Israelis, were blogging about

47:16

this, and the other

47:22

point, which is also

47:24

concerning, is the Israelis have a

47:26

unit called 8200, which is a

47:28

signals intelligence unit, it is, I'm

47:32

no expert, but people

47:34

will tell you who are, that it is

47:36

every bit as good as far as sophisticated

47:38

training equipment as NSA,

47:41

but it's a question of scale, it's

47:43

much smaller than NSA, and,

47:47

but they shut down their

47:50

subunit that was focused exclusively on

47:52

Hamas and Gaza, again, a few

47:54

months ago. So you see it's

47:56

just a perfect storm, but

47:58

as Mike points out. one

48:00

kind of cause for all of this and

48:02

it runs deeper than any

48:05

of the individual proximate causes and

48:07

that is this underlying belief that

48:09

they didn't have to worry about

48:11

Hamas. Hamas was caged in Gaza.

48:13

Hamas was preoccupied now with running

48:16

Gaza itself and making money and

48:18

had no interest in attacking Israel

48:20

even though Hamas was saying the

48:22

destruction of Israel was still its

48:24

first task. Yeah, absolutely.

48:27

Yeah, that's the, I didn't

48:29

know the other parts about, so those

48:32

are other things that I think would be really helpful

48:34

to come out in a manner that sets out the

48:37

kind of domino effect of how this ended

48:39

up in such a catastrophic event. So

48:42

both the Israelis can avoid it and then we

48:45

and our allies and partners can as well

48:47

and you know whether it's the importance of open source

48:49

and I remember when all the intelligence

48:52

services just poo-pooed open source because it was,

48:54

you know, it's already out there, it's not

48:56

secret, so it's not really intelligence. If

48:59

it's important, it's important, you know, they

49:01

choose to do it openly, then we

49:03

need to, you know, focus on it

49:05

and not just dismiss it.

49:07

That's another example. In the sieges,

49:09

so did we had an

49:11

open source Intel cell and that

49:13

was my initiative, someone, brilliant

49:15

guy, seal as a matter of fact. So

49:17

those two tones do go together sometimes, recommend

49:20

that we do. I agree. And

49:27

it was, honestly, we got most

49:29

of our BDA, Battle of Zammich assessment

49:31

through open source intelligence. Every time

49:33

we did it or not, you know, we

49:36

would get the reports and they would even, with

49:39

Islamic State, was even posting like

49:41

a lift that they're dead, you know, every time. So

49:44

it was tremendously helpful, more

49:47

so, I mean, not

49:49

more so in a different

49:51

way than more exquisite COVID

49:53

intelligence like signals. Exactly.

49:55

Exactly. It's signals intelligence.

49:58

Yeah. You

50:00

know, it's like the beam of a

50:02

flashlight and open source intelligence helps you

50:04

focus that beam Yeah, I

50:07

agree. It should it's again. It should be one of

50:09

those arguments that it's either or it's all the above

50:12

Yeah Totally. Yeah, that's another Do

50:15

you want to I know you had another question

50:17

for for mick before you let him I wanted

50:19

to bash nanyahu But oh,

50:21

I thought you were gonna ask about ukraine, but go

50:24

ahead. Oh, yeah Well, I mean no not bash nanyahu.

50:26

I mean it just talks to like the Kind

50:29

of leadership. I mean black thereof like

50:31

where he's blaming His

50:33

guys and you know his

50:35

the shimbet guys are kind of coming back and

50:37

saying no this was like kind of known He

50:40

knew about it and he makes so you know, he's branding

50:42

the whole thing of his like Mr.

50:45

National security for Israel, right and

50:47

just to pass the buck. I know he's a politician at the

50:49

end of the day It's kind of gross Especially

50:52

when it pertains to something this, you

50:54

know catastrophic for Israel Which is

50:56

now leading to something massively catastrophic for

50:59

policy. I don't know Yeah, I

51:01

I for one cannot comment on this because I want

51:03

to go in and out of this round. Sure Yeah,

51:05

I mean I'm not so I could pop off. I

51:07

guess okay Yeah, and I know you guys have friends

51:09

in the IDF and we saw it or Jim Betten

51:11

stuff and I get it Hey, well, I

51:14

don't know down on that. We already thought don't

51:16

you remember? We already called all that hate mail

51:18

for being we'll always get hate. It doesn't matter

51:21

what side we pick I mean,

51:23

I don't I don't have a dog in this fight. I want

51:25

people to not die. Absolutely. I have a brain in jail That's

51:27

what I want. Yeah, right. Like that's what

51:29

I choose and I want humanitarian aid to go

51:31

there on On a

51:33

you know on a baby. Basically

51:35

what a bottom line is. Yeah. No, I mean it

51:38

30,000 plus Civilian

51:40

deaths we can quote those numbers and we're

51:43

not But

51:45

it's it's just It's

51:47

just staggering yeah, and I'm saying that not

51:50

as a hand-wringing civilian But as a guy

51:52

who has conducted urban operations,

51:54

you know, yeah, you

51:57

know what but with all this will be sorted out Where

52:00

are we, Mick, in your opinion? Well,

52:04

I certainly would hope that the major

52:06

combat operations would be concluded that Hamas would

52:09

be to a point where they don't pose

52:11

a military threat. I

52:13

think the idea that they'll be destroying Hamas

52:16

is just not the case, as Andy will tell you. You

52:19

can't destroy a philosophy, but you can bring

52:22

them down to a point where they can't use

52:25

that philosophy to wage war against their

52:28

neighbor, in this case, Israel. And then

52:30

I do think, and I understand it's easier to

52:32

say this than to get into the weeds, but

52:35

the only real solution is a

52:37

two-state solution on which the Palestinians

52:39

have autonomy, they have a future,

52:41

they have a identity, a national

52:43

identity. And they're

52:45

focused on building the capacity of

52:48

their country, economically, politically, educational,

52:50

all the things that a society focuses

52:53

on. And they're essentially

52:56

not a threat to Israel, and

52:58

that they have agreed to live

53:00

in peace and

53:02

coexist. Again, way easier to

53:04

say than done. People have been saying that for

53:06

decades. But that, I still think, is the answer,

53:09

and then obviously is still the policy of the

53:11

United States. Things that need to happen to make

53:13

that happen. One, there needs to

53:15

be a willingness on the side of Israel. So

53:18

that's something for them to decide who should

53:20

lead their country, but that has to be

53:22

a willingness. And there has to

53:24

be security guarantees on the side of Israel.

53:26

Like, for example, can they develop a military?

53:28

Can that military be supported by, let's say,

53:31

Iran? Can

53:33

they join a security pact

53:35

with Iran? Things like that. Those are

53:37

real questions that, from the Israeli perspective,

53:40

somebody has to answer. From

53:42

the Palestinian perspective, the

53:44

Palestinian Authority has almost zero

53:48

credibility with the Palestinian people. They

53:51

are considered widely as corrupt and

53:53

ineffective. So there has to be

53:55

what the U.S. keeps calling a revitalized Palestinian

53:57

Authority, which most people say would be

53:59

different. composed of technocrats. People

54:01

are good at their sector of

54:04

the government, education, agriculture,

54:06

urban development, whatever it is, and not

54:09

just people who are tied to somebody

54:11

politically. So there's gotta be a lot,

54:13

and it has to be responsive to

54:15

the people, and not just some political

54:18

ideology, which is largely just reinforced from

54:20

Iran, right? So there's all

54:22

sorts of things that go into the

54:24

concept of a two-state solution, but I

54:26

do think that is where

54:28

we ultimately need to head to,

54:30

and that's where the international community

54:32

should come together and enhance that

54:34

happening. Not just, say, talking points,

54:36

but are they willing to contribute

54:38

to an international fund

54:41

to rehabilitate Gaza? Are

54:43

they willing to ensure that no

54:46

proxy of Iran is allowed to

54:48

govern any part of a

54:51

future Palestinian state? So there's all sorts of things

54:53

that the international community, but to your question, D,

54:55

I think that's where we want to head within

54:57

six months, and into the combat

55:00

operation stabilization, reconstruction, and then

55:02

this diplomatic path toward a

55:05

peaceful two-state solution. Does that look like

55:07

elections in Gaza or the West Bank?

55:10

Because I don't

55:12

think what's going on right now with

55:14

the war is exactly pacifying

55:16

a lot of folks. I feel

55:18

like it's probably breeding some extremism. So

55:21

what happens if it's just a Hamas

55:23

that's rebranded, that gets elected? That's

55:26

a great point, and it is possible.

55:28

That's why I'm saying it's easier. Steady

55:30

and duck, right? So there's, now Hamas

55:33

is more popular in the West

55:35

Bank than it is in Gaza. So

55:39

it is breeding some extremist

55:41

views. And although I

55:44

don't understand that, because I think Hamas

55:46

brought this all on the Palestinian people,

55:48

but it's not up for me to

55:50

understand it's still happening. So

55:53

that is, if there was an election

55:55

today, and they were put

55:57

into place, then I

55:59

think there's... Israel would rightfully say, well, we're not

56:01

going to have a two-state solution where Hamas, the

56:03

group that attacked us on October 7, is

56:06

in charge. And I think most

56:08

reasonable person would feel like neither would we

56:10

if we were in that position. So

56:13

again, easier said than

56:15

done, but I think ultimately, unless we

56:17

want to see this cycle of violence

56:19

with an occupation of Gaza permanent,

56:24

I think that the path that the United

56:26

States, which can only be a facilitator, is

56:28

not a dictator in a sense that

56:30

we can't tell people what to do. The

56:32

United States can only be as effective

56:35

as the two parties that ultimately have

56:37

the decision, which is Israel and the

56:39

Palestinian people. But I think

56:41

the United States should be a part of that, regardless

56:44

of, you know, I don't know, politics, whatever political

56:47

parties in power, because

56:50

that is the role we can play because we have more

56:53

influence on Israel than any other country in the world.

56:56

I think they trust us. Yeah.

56:58

I mean, would the US actually go to the

57:00

extent of like turning

57:02

the spigot off, you know, the cash machine off?

57:06

I don't see a political willingness to do that on

57:08

either party right now. The

57:11

longer it goes on, you know, that could change, but

57:13

I don't think we'll get there. I

57:15

think we need to be a partner for Israel, but

57:17

I also think we need to be, you know, an

57:21

honest broker. So we're calling low blows and,

57:24

you know, good hits if you want to use the

57:26

boxing analogy, which I do. We got

57:28

to be square with that. I

57:31

don't think we need to do that. I mean,

57:34

I don't you know, I think I

57:36

mean, that's already that's in the background

57:38

behind everyone's mind is the knowledge that

57:40

the United States gives Israel three point

57:43

four billion dollars. It's certainly it's certainly

57:45

there in the in the media in

57:47

the Middle East every day. Israel's

57:50

very aware of that. It's not something that

57:52

diplomatically we would ever have to even hint

57:55

at because, you know,

57:57

as Mick points out, it's not something we'd follow

57:59

through. tea bluff. But

58:01

I think more subtly,

58:03

there are things that

58:05

are underway to pair,

58:08

as in divide perhaps

58:11

the Prime Minister from his cabinet,

58:14

that hence the invitation to Benny

58:16

Gantz to come to the

58:18

United States, that for many was

58:20

kind of poetic justice, because we've

58:22

seen Israeli Prime Ministers before appeal

58:24

to Congress above the President's head.

58:27

And so here was kind of a tit for

58:29

tat, not in that way. But you know, so

58:32

there are ways of doing this

58:35

that are that don't come down

58:37

to street threats with with, you know,

58:40

with a country that is an ally

58:42

and whose national interests, to

58:44

some extent, overlap our own. And

58:46

that is why Israel is an

58:48

ally. Right. I mean, it's

58:50

not it's not because of the crazy

58:52

right wing cuckoo, you know, evangelists are

58:54

probably getting trouble for that. It's not

58:56

because of that. It's because it is

58:59

in the interest of the United States

59:01

to have a stable partner, a stable

59:03

and powerful partner in that part of

59:05

the Middle East. So that

59:07

doesn't mean that all our national interests overlap.

59:09

And in the end, I used to remind

59:11

my guys, it says US above your your

59:14

pocket. And that's what we all have to

59:16

remember. And you did see

59:19

President Biden at the end of the State of

59:21

the Union when he spoke to that congressman. He

59:25

was on a hot mic and he said, you know, I spoke

59:27

to BB and we're gonna have a come to Jesus moment. I

59:30

mean, that's got to be like, I mean, I

59:32

don't know if that's him being dotty or is that

59:35

actually like, you know,

59:37

I don't know, sending sick, I, I

59:39

think what he I think perhaps what he

59:41

sees has come to Jesus and what BBC

59:43

is being brought to Jesus. So two separate

59:46

things. And I don't

59:48

want to get into the tangled web of

59:50

theological discussions here. What I simply

59:52

mean is that they definitely have

59:54

a different perception of who's leveraging

59:56

who. All right.

59:59

And the domestic audience is the

1:00:01

key in both cases. So

1:00:03

it's not. That's right. And

1:00:06

I obviously don't do politics, as

1:00:08

I said, but Benny Gantz is very well

1:00:10

known and very well liked in the United

1:00:12

States. He was the defense attache from Israel

1:00:15

to the United States. And

1:00:17

that's always a significant position, but it's

1:00:19

really a significant position. And the idea

1:00:21

is it's usually the Peter into the

1:00:23

chief of staff, so the

1:00:26

most senior uniform military. And

1:00:28

obviously, Benny Gantz was a general on the

1:00:30

IDF, so very, very much respected and very

1:00:33

well known. But it's up to the Israeli

1:00:35

people to decide who they want to be,

1:00:37

their leadership and their prime

1:00:39

minister. Yeah,

1:00:43

I'm happy. Good.

1:00:46

You're happy ending. I'm talking to you guys. That's

1:00:48

all I know. That was terrific. D, you did

1:00:50

have, before we let Mick go, you had one

1:00:52

more question, right, about Ukraine? About Ukraine? I mean,

1:00:55

yeah, you saw the New York Times quote,

1:00:58

unquote report, breaking news, about

1:01:00

the special relationship between the Ukrainian

1:01:02

intelligence and the CIA, and

1:01:05

NATO, other NATO intelligence services,

1:01:07

for sure. Which,

1:01:10

I mean, I'm biased, obviously, because Jack

1:01:12

Murphy, our deal leader, wrote a

1:01:15

pretty in-depth article about a year and

1:01:17

a half ago. And

1:01:19

just magically, because the New York Times got

1:01:22

the OK, sorry, Mick, from

1:01:24

the agency, the right this. It's

1:01:28

like news now, magically. While

1:01:30

at the same time, elements

1:01:33

from the agency, at the time Jack

1:01:36

was writing his article, were actively trying

1:01:38

to kill it. And did. And

1:01:40

by basically, I mean, they did their job.

1:01:43

They shook a major publication

1:01:45

off the story. By

1:01:50

the way, they've not only permitted Mick's friend

1:01:52

to be a friend of mine, but obliged

1:01:54

to lie. No, that's

1:01:56

their job. And they did it well. I respect it. You

1:01:58

know what I mean? Like, they made me. made it work. But

1:02:02

this intelligence relationship has probably been

1:02:04

building up since 2014, I'm assuming,

1:02:06

since Crimea got annexed. Just

1:02:10

speak to it a little bit. And confirm

1:02:13

Jack's story. I can't

1:02:15

confirm Jack's story. I'm obviously obligated

1:02:18

in perpetuity to protect

1:02:20

all covert

1:02:22

and operations as

1:02:25

a retired CIA person. I obviously know Jackie's

1:02:27

a friend. Him and brother Dave came to

1:02:29

visit us right here in Whitefish. He's a

1:02:32

great reporter. But you killed them in a

1:02:34

hobby that they came between you and security.

1:02:36

No. No,

1:02:38

I'm not saying that. They

1:02:41

both have served the national security interests

1:02:43

in their country with great esteem, I would

1:02:45

say. As

1:02:47

you all know. But

1:02:49

what I would say is the

1:02:51

agency, the paramilitary community in

1:02:54

particular, and the soft community inside the

1:02:57

US military does have

1:02:59

key relationships that they

1:03:02

build over time that you never know

1:03:04

when they're going to be critically important

1:03:06

to our national security. So whether

1:03:08

it's in Ukraine or whether it's

1:03:11

the Kurds, for example, before

1:03:13

the Iraq War, which then

1:03:16

leveraged into our efforts in

1:03:18

Syria with the SDF, you

1:03:21

never know where it starts. And when

1:03:23

you have that young Green Beret or

1:03:25

Raider or a paramilitary officer

1:03:27

that's out there building these relationships that

1:03:29

they don't know where to lead, oftentimes

1:03:32

it leads to some of the most

1:03:35

significant cooperative events we've had. Whether it's

1:03:39

building an entity inside Syria that

1:03:42

can defeat ISIS, right,

1:03:44

and actually win without the

1:03:46

loss of many US

1:03:48

servicemen and women. That's incredibly

1:03:51

important. Whether it was in Iraq where

1:03:54

we could not get the 4th Infantry

1:03:56

Division and essentially it turned into a

1:03:58

UW effort against 11 infantry division. divisions

1:04:00

that was successful, Republican

1:04:02

Guard divisions in the North. So

1:04:05

another example, whether it was Ukraine, when

1:04:08

every analyst I know gave them less

1:04:10

than a week once the Russian

1:04:13

came across the border, and here we

1:04:15

are, where we are today, wondering

1:04:18

why they're not being more effective on their

1:04:20

counter offensive, ignoring the fact that most analysts

1:04:22

didn't think they would stay key for the

1:04:24

last three days. A

1:04:26

lot of that, I want to give 100% really

1:04:29

of the credit to the Ukrainians. But

1:04:31

I think they were enhanced by our

1:04:35

partner operations that both the US

1:04:37

military and the Central Intelligence Agency

1:04:39

does that brings that core skill,

1:04:42

that brings that confidence, that brings

1:04:44

that small unit leadership to function

1:04:46

in a way that I think

1:04:49

is exponentially more powerful than

1:04:52

their numbers would suggest.

1:04:54

And I think we do that a lot,

1:04:56

and that needs to keep happening, just because

1:04:58

the global war on terror might be something

1:05:00

we put in the rear view mirror. That can change

1:05:02

overnight, as you well know. But it's

1:05:04

also just as effective against near

1:05:07

peer competitors. And Ukraine is a great

1:05:09

example of what they're doing

1:05:11

to the Russian military, who is,

1:05:14

by almost every analysis perspective,

1:05:16

been degraded substantially, like 50%

1:05:19

or more, which

1:05:21

is why it's so important to keep supporting

1:05:24

our partners in their most

1:05:26

critical time of need, not

1:05:28

just for the moral right

1:05:30

thing to do, but it's in our own interests. Our

1:05:33

power is relative to our enemies. Our

1:05:36

power is going down substantially because of

1:05:38

the efforts of Ukraine and our support

1:05:40

to them. So I would

1:05:42

hope that everybody would see that through

1:05:44

the lens of US national security interests,

1:05:47

rather than any kind of political filter that

1:05:49

might be to

1:05:53

the contrary. What

1:05:55

he said, that was grand. I'm

1:05:58

glad we got that recorded. So

1:06:01

you are confirming Jack's story. Just want to get that

1:06:03

on record. No. I'll

1:06:05

get a call tomorrow. I'm

1:06:08

saying that it's well known that

1:06:12

these partnerships, which can start

1:06:17

before conflict, can have a profound

1:06:20

effect. Reveal untold

1:06:22

benefits. Yeah. And

1:06:24

actually, you know, we're winding up

1:06:26

now, but you brought up a

1:06:29

great point. That would be another

1:06:31

good discussion, being

1:06:34

able to reinforce success with a light footprint.

1:06:37

So Chobani with the SDF, right, was

1:06:39

kind of that. It was, hey, let's

1:06:41

drop these guys' supplies and see what

1:06:43

happens. And then

1:06:45

Chobani held on, and we sort

1:06:48

of realized, who are these dudes,

1:06:51

these SDF guys? And he

1:06:53

became one of the most

1:06:56

fruitful partnerships. In fact, maybe

1:06:59

the Northern Alliance was the

1:07:01

other, but of the last

1:07:03

three decades of self-operations. Yep.

1:07:07

I would go with that. I would say

1:07:09

the Northern Alliance, then the Kurdish element in

1:07:11

Iraq, and then the SDF in the –

1:07:14

yeah, the Peshmerga in Iraq. And

1:07:16

then the SDF, I think, is like a

1:07:18

combination of what really these type

1:07:20

of operations can do with a

1:07:22

very competent partner, which we make

1:07:24

more competent, enhanced by intelligence that

1:07:27

we can provide, we can

1:07:29

provide, and on-the-ground advisors. The

1:07:32

other part of the day to say to that is, if we

1:07:34

want this to be something that can do in

1:07:36

the future, we have to be good partnering. They

1:07:38

can't just be disposable. You can't just decide one

1:07:40

day that you don't meet them anymore and throw

1:07:42

them to the wolves. Not only is

1:07:44

that a moral, unethical, and not

1:07:46

what the United States is standing for, people

1:07:48

will remember that in the future. And they'll

1:07:51

be like, I'm not jumping in with you

1:07:53

guys. You abandoned every partner in the past.

1:07:56

Again, it's not just the right thing to do.

1:07:59

It's the right thing to do for everyone. us

1:08:01

in the future to have partners that consider us

1:08:03

reliable. 100%.

1:08:07

That's right. Yeah, Syria and

1:08:10

okay, yeah, we can carry this on through but

1:08:13

what people don't realize is that, you

1:08:15

know, as we talked about here before, having that

1:08:18

presence in Syria is not token. It

1:08:21

lies in an area that

1:08:24

is dearly sought after by our

1:08:26

enemies, you know, so we are

1:08:28

again leveraging small amounts of people

1:08:30

along with indigenous troops

1:08:32

to achieve strategic

1:08:35

effect. Syria is a little

1:08:37

bit story in that sense for us.

1:08:39

I mean, Syria is a horrible abomination

1:08:41

but what I'm saying is

1:08:44

that I agree. I agree and

1:08:46

it's not only a success in the CP front but

1:08:49

because we're there, it has an effect on

1:08:51

countering Iran, right? Iran would

1:08:53

dominate if it wasn't for us being

1:08:55

there. The only legal reason we can

1:08:57

be there is to counter ISIS which

1:08:59

is part of the, you know, we

1:09:02

have to we have to be in Syria because we fucked

1:09:04

up the rock. I

1:09:09

mean, we can we got this another episode

1:09:11

but I love when Andy gets honest, I

1:09:13

fucking love it. Yeah.

1:09:17

Hey, make you you've been

1:09:19

an awesome guest, predictably, do

1:09:21

you've been an awesome producer

1:09:23

too? Thank you. And, you

1:09:25

know, watch the space. We've

1:09:28

got a couple of things and Mick

1:09:30

and his cohorts are going to appear

1:09:32

down the line to talk more about

1:09:34

this hopefully in execution. And then

1:09:37

Dee has promised us a

1:09:39

blowout on weekend,

1:09:41

long weekend at at

1:09:43

Mick's, I don't know

1:09:46

how to put it, bunker there

1:09:48

in the area. In

1:09:50

White City, Montana. We'll get a

1:09:52

team house private jet fuel double while head out there.

1:09:55

Yeah, our satellite from that

1:09:57

so you can enjoy it.

1:10:00

Careously with lots of weapons porn

1:10:02

and you name it. Yeah Alright,

1:10:05

well, I love that. Thank you. I

1:10:07

want to remind everybody to check out

1:10:09

all of Mixed stuff

1:10:11

check out the Lobo Institute the links will be in the

1:10:13

description Andy check out

1:10:15

Andy's sub stack and Andy's Twitter Don't

1:10:17

forget to like subscribe if you're listening to

1:10:20

us on Apple or Spotify rate and review

1:10:22

at five stars and yeah Thank

1:10:24

you and buy my book before

1:10:26

at least Mix comes right

1:10:29

everyone. Thanks. Thanks very much. See you again in

1:10:31

a few days. Bye