Episode Transcript
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0:00
the consumer was almost taught
0:02
ten or fifteen minute deliveries and
0:04
more. That's not a sustainable business
0:06
model. We build a new financial
0:08
model that's completely self funded. One
0:10
that doesn't require any more outside capital, one
0:12
that only looks at our balance sheet. Wow.
0:15
This is such a good show. This is twenty NAVC,
0:17
The Go Puff memo, The Monthly Show where we
0:19
deep dive on the business model of one company,
0:21
and really Go Deep. And today, as I mentioned,
0:24
we're going deep on the Go Puff business model
0:26
with Rafael Ishayev, co founder and
0:28
CEO, Gopath, one of the market leaders
0:30
delivering daily essentials in minutes.
0:32
Go Puffs latest funding round, priced the company
0:34
a reported eight point nine billion dollars
0:37
in March twenty twenty one. And to date,
0:39
RAP has raised over two point four billion dollars
0:41
for the company from the Life Excel, Softbank
0:43
Fidelity, Bailey Gifford, and Moore,
0:45
and Rafford scaled the company to over
0:48
one third of the US, with over twelve
0:50
thousand employees nationwide side. But
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But now it's time for this incredible So
2:52
Raff was fantastic. So I'm gonna hand over
2:54
to Raff Inishai, I have co founder and
2:56
CEO at Go Path.
3:03
You have now arrived at your destination.
3:06
Raff, this is such a joy to do.
3:08
As we just said, if we're in the same city, we
3:10
would be enjoying it together. Sadly,
3:13
we are not and so we're doing a podcast instead.
3:15
Second best. But thank you so much for joining me
3:17
today. Harry, thanks for having me. Second time
3:19
around, I guess I did something right the first time to
3:21
get invited the second time. Really did something
3:23
brilliantly right the first time. I wanna start of
3:25
those that maybe missed the first show. Two to three
3:27
minutes, how did you come to start Go Puffs?
3:30
What was that founding moment? It's kind of crazy.
3:32
It's been almost ten years. Right? We've been at this for
3:34
a decade. But go about started by
3:36
solving our own use case. Here and I were
3:38
college students realized there's a pretty
3:40
big need in market. Everyone was going to the
3:42
convenience store to drug store to pick up everything
3:45
they needed. That experience wasn't
3:47
always very safe, and it wasn't always great, everyone
3:49
was always busy. And we said why doesn't anyone
3:51
stock and deliver all these goods?
3:54
Two students kind of across the country. Right?
3:56
We could start this in Philadelphia, and had a
3:58
little bit of an unorthodox start. As you know, Harry,
3:59
we didn't raise money for our first three years.
4:02
Profitable from day one, you the profits
4:04
from Philadelphia. Right? Back then, Go Buff was
4:06
different service Right? And today, we're five thousand
4:09
items. Back then, we're a hundred to two hundred items,
4:11
snacks, drinks, and we use the
4:13
profits that we had from early Gopav
4:15
one point o to expand to five cities
4:17
until we raise their first round, and then Gopav
4:20
really started changing. Right? Alcohol, ice cream,
4:22
vertical medication, baby pads,
4:24
this kitchen's business that we have, all these
4:26
new verticals to now where we are today
4:29
over thousand cities on the global scale.
4:31
twelve thousand employees globally,
4:33
much more drivers, obviously. So there's
4:35
so many ways I wanna take this. When we
4:37
spoke last time bluntly, capital was
4:40
cheap. Money was pouring into the space,
4:42
and it's a very different landscape state. The careful
4:44
is dried up across the board, but especially in
4:46
this space. We've seen businesses go
4:49
bust in the space, many. I wanted to want
4:51
to start with a little bit of why. Why do you
4:53
think the capital has dried up specifically
4:55
for this space? And what are the cool drive Capital
4:58
markets have not been friendly for any
5:00
growth companies over the last,
5:02
I would say, two to three quarters. But we're talking
5:04
about instant needs specifically. When you're starting
5:07
business as complicated as our business, right,
5:09
where you have so much technological needs,
5:11
supply chain needs, logistical needs,
5:14
or you really need to nail it before you scale
5:16
it, you have to really focus on
5:19
the inner crops of your business, the infrastructure
5:21
of your business before really expanding
5:23
in a very big way. And that's what we did for
5:25
our first couple of years. We spent a lot of
5:27
time building the technology inside of the four
5:29
wall of the building, building operation excellence
5:32
and then really scaling the business by
5:34
proving that we can deliver really strong unit
5:36
economics. Pretty much everyone else
5:38
in the instant need space from across
5:41
the globe had the opposite strategy. All
5:43
we need to do is open up a whole host of buildings,
5:45
figure out the tech leader. We'll figure out the
5:47
operational excellence leader. The supply
5:49
chain set up. It's fine. We'll figure it out
5:52
later. So it would scale it, then
5:54
nail it. strategy. And when
5:57
the capital markets started getting more
5:59
constricted, they realized their underlying
6:01
business isn't all that strong. They're not
6:03
producing really strong unit economics. As
6:05
a byproduct, a lot of people started really
6:08
struggling. Really, it's just the beginning. I think it's
6:10
gonna continue. That trend is gonna continue
6:12
to accelerate because the initial strategy
6:14
was grow at all cost, not really
6:16
nail our business really nail our
6:18
unit economics and then scale the business.
6:21
My take was bluntly that as the cost
6:23
of capital went up, Capital intense
6:25
low margin businesses became
6:28
more and more of a challenge for investors
6:31
to finance. Would you agree with that summarization
6:33
Or would you say that's not fair to categorize
6:36
our spaces, capital intense and low
6:38
margin? If this business has done right, it's
6:40
actually not a low margin business. if
6:42
you set up your your structure
6:44
correctly and you're buying correctly
6:46
and your ads business is working correctly.
6:49
And now we're launching a whole new host businesses
6:51
that they're gonna improve our margin structure more.
6:53
Our gross margin structure is actually
6:55
among the best in, if you categorize,
6:58
like, our retail peers inside of our tech peers,
7:00
it's among the bets. Right? We have gross margin
7:02
in the high 30s, low 40s depending
7:05
on the region that you're in. It's actually really,
7:07
really healthy margins to operate a profitable
7:09
business. especially on a unit level. What
7:11
I'll say though is a lot of people I don't
7:14
wanna beat the dead horse here, but a lot of people
7:16
when they were expanding to city to city, they
7:18
just weren't focused on how do
7:20
we build really, really strong margin
7:22
profile in the business. Right? It's no question why
7:24
infrastructure is expensive. Right? You have to build
7:26
buildings to the setup rags, you need
7:28
equipment to hold nine yards, but the
7:30
return on capital on this business and how
7:33
fast these markets pay back is really,
7:35
really incredible once you start humming correctly.
7:37
Right? In the beginning, right, it took maybe a year,
7:39
a year and a half for building to recoup its
7:41
investment. now that some buildings you open
7:43
up three months later, you recoup all your
7:46
fixed cost. So it really just
7:48
boils down to did you set
7:50
the right amount of time energy on
7:53
nailing the fiscal responsibility
7:55
portion of this business being really strong
7:58
on fiscal side and then scale the business,
7:59
or you said, hey, I wanna grow at all cost. I
8:02
wanna expense as many cities as I can. And
8:04
we'll figure out our distributors later. We'll figure
8:06
out our technology
8:08
inside of the four walls and routing, bidding, and
8:10
batching leader. That was your strategy. The
8:12
capital markets are gonna crush you the next
8:15
two, three quarters. you mentioned the margin element
8:17
there. First, how do the margin levels
8:19
vary when comparing your most mature
8:21
markets, your Philadelphia, your strongest markets
8:23
in the US? to your incredibly
8:26
new markets, say in Europe or anything that you
8:28
expand to. What is that margin? You said high
8:30
thirties, low forties? Is it like negative
8:32
on the margin side and new. What does that
8:34
variance look like? Margin is not
8:37
the only element to profitability. Right? You
8:39
need a healthy basket size. because
8:41
you take dollars to the bank, right, not percentage
8:43
points. As an example, alcohol is our
8:45
lowest gross margin percentage category,
8:48
but our highest gross margin dollar category.
8:50
his baskets are much higher with algolbaskets
8:52
than on algolbaskets. So you rather lose
8:55
a few percentage points on the gross
8:57
margin percentage side and gain
8:59
ten or fifteen dollars on the basket
9:01
size. The analogy bring home are much higher. So
9:03
across the US today, Right? I'm
9:05
gonna exclude Europe. All the new markets
9:08
that we've spent into generally
9:10
look very similar. They start with
9:13
a slightly slower basket size because there's
9:15
kind of direct correlation between ten year and
9:17
AOV. The longer you stay on the platform, the more
9:19
you start ordering on GoBox. In Europe,
9:22
I'm kind of focused on the UK for a second.
9:24
basket has grown a lot over
9:26
the last two quarters, but it's
9:28
still double digits lower
9:30
than what we see in the U. S. when we're starting
9:33
to market So it's grown fast. I
9:35
think the number one focus we have in
9:37
the UK specifically today is continuing
9:39
to drive a higher basket. Now
9:41
we're in the 20s from basket size
9:44
perspective. I think that business is
9:46
continuing to grow and I think it's
9:48
possible in the next couple of quarters we're in
9:50
the high twenties, low thirties from an AOV perspective.
9:52
Given what we said about kind of the capital availability
9:55
for the space itself, is this a
9:57
race to profitability now? for everyone
9:59
surviving in the space. Any company
10:02
in any space that's not thinking
10:04
about profitability right now
10:06
and is not focused on profitability. There
10:09
is a higher chance they're not
10:11
that these companies will probably not exist
10:13
in the next year or year and a half. no matter
10:15
how stronger balance sheet is because no one
10:17
has a crystal ball. No one knows how long this is
10:19
gonna last. No one knows how long
10:21
the capital markets are gonna continue to stay
10:23
depressed. And the reality is,
10:25
you know, I could speak for us, we build
10:28
a new financial model that's completely
10:30
self funded. One that there's acquire anymore on
10:32
that Capital One that only looks on our balance
10:34
sheet. It's not one where we
10:36
said, hey, we're gonna cut all costs completely. We're
10:38
gonna stop innovation completely. We could be profitable
10:40
and fast. stir. But it's still somewhat of
10:43
a balance of being able to
10:45
continue to grow, continue to innovate, right,
10:47
like our kitchen's business, for example, is
10:49
crushing. Every week is a record from the week
10:51
prior year. We wanna continue to invest into that
10:53
business because it's doing well, but we're not gonna
10:55
invest that how we used to invest. We're not gonna be opening
10:57
up two or three dozen buildings a month that have
10:59
kitchens. So it's a balance between
11:02
driving really strong EBITDA and
11:04
still innovating for the customer show. debt
11:06
balance for us at least meant that we're profitable
11:08
in twenty twenty four. What's the core differences
11:10
between the old financial plan and
11:12
the new financial plan you mentioned? What are
11:14
the big changes? It's less buildings.
11:16
So if you look at on a metro basis,
11:19
all of our existing metros are
11:21
producing cash flow. So you have your
11:23
call in your cash cows. Right? And Philadelphia,
11:25
Chicago, Boston, all
11:28
of our Texas markets of the world that are
11:30
producing cash flow, but you have a lot
11:32
of new markets that need time
11:34
to get first to uneconomic profitability
11:37
and EBITDA profitability. So if
11:39
you continue to open up markets, you're going
11:41
to continue to have existing business
11:44
that produces free cash flow, but this
11:46
emerging business that's still requiring
11:48
investment and causing the overall picture
11:51
to be negative. EBITDA picture. So for
11:53
us, that meant opening up significantly less
11:55
buildings, less kind of fixed cost out the
11:57
door, not focusing on initiatives
11:59
that are might be good
12:02
for tomorrow, but not so good for today,
12:04
like, I'll I'll be one that hits kind of close
12:06
to home. We launched a pharmacy business. we're
12:08
actually delivering prescription drugs to
12:10
folks. And I love that business.
12:13
And it's one that think will come back to
12:15
one day, but we just said, hey, Matt. a great
12:17
idea just not for twenty twenty two.
12:19
Sometimes saying no to these really
12:21
shiny objects that customers might really love,
12:23
but it just like given the environment
12:26
of today, we can't afford to invest
12:28
eight figures in this net new business that's
12:30
gonna take multiple years to pay back.
12:32
Right? Because it takes while for these business incubate
12:34
and then reach a terminal velocity and everything
12:36
else. So being really, really strict from a prioritization
12:39
perspective and then also controlling
12:41
your fixed costs. Right? So we're not gonna add
12:44
of hundreds of more buildings in the next eighteen
12:47
months. We're not gonna be opening buildings
12:49
that we were opening a buildings in the last eighteen months.
12:51
From a prioritization perspective, I spoke to Emmanuel
12:53
Michael before the show, wonderful conversation
12:55
I had with him. But he told me about all the different avenues
12:57
and products that you can build. and I I'm
13:00
fascinated when you think about that and the question that
13:02
we just have that. In this new, more capital
13:04
constrained, newer financial plan
13:06
world, how do you fundamentally prioritize
13:08
between the initiatives you do do versus
13:10
those that you don't do. So a
13:13
lot of products that you build in the product
13:15
roadmap are things that are good for
13:17
you or things that are good for the customer. And sometimes
13:19
there's an overlap. Things that are good for you. You
13:21
meaning the team or the company and the
13:23
customer meaning the So sometimes there's an overlap.
13:26
Being relentlessly focused on things that
13:28
are only gonna drive better consumer
13:30
behavior, and tell you, like a feature that we're launching,
13:32
we've talked to a lot of customers and feedback they
13:34
get as either place an order on go above and right after
13:37
I place an order, like, god, I forgot
13:39
to paste. like mobile, or battery is very
13:41
immediately after I click the place order button.
13:43
So we'll give people a chance to
13:45
post their order to continue to build their basket
13:47
for anything they want remind me, believe, these
13:49
are the items that most frequently most
13:51
people most frequently forget. So a lot
13:53
of those kind of features where we're
13:55
really listening to the customer that we're
13:57
really doubling and tripling down on. The driver's
13:59
side, the first week of October,
14:02
we're having global rollout of
14:04
a new routing software. So we've integrated
14:07
almost entirely the right OS business.
14:09
That's improved routing, bidding, and batching tremendously.
14:12
It's all under the scope of Umbrella now. the
14:14
first week of October, we have
14:16
v two of that launching, which I
14:18
think will keep p ninety delivery
14:20
time stable but will improve our
14:22
ability to bin in batch by
14:24
think pretty close double digits. That's not
14:27
a really huge effect on the consumer side.
14:29
Consumers actually won't see a mass a difference
14:31
from a delivery type perspective, but it'll
14:33
save us a good bit of money on our CPO
14:35
side. It's interesting because what worries me
14:38
and what I've seen is a consumer. I will never
14:40
lie to you, they're half. I have a
14:42
a propensity to switch between different providers.
14:44
And what I've seen with certain providers
14:46
is with the cutting of costs,
14:49
you see two things really happen. Well,
14:51
three things. One is customer service
14:53
is the first to go, live chat goes,
14:55
and that sucks. Two,
14:58
you see increased delivery times. It
15:00
was ten minutes. Now it's forty forty five
15:02
or not a tool in some cases. And
15:04
then three is inventory just depleted
15:06
to shit and unavailable. Unlike
15:08
SaaS businesses where if you cut cost,
15:10
the core NetSuite product or Salesforce
15:13
stays the same, you might not have the same cadence
15:15
of innovation and product. But when you cut
15:17
cost here in our businesses, you
15:20
really feel it. and then it creates this negative
15:22
flywheel of fatware. In most of those
15:24
other services, I don't use them anymore
15:26
because it's so shit across those three dimensions.
15:29
Do you see what I mean? And does that concern
15:31
you? Yep. It absolutely concerns
15:34
us looking back and being a little critical in
15:36
ourselves. Gogo was never built
15:38
to be a ten or fifteen minute delivery service.
15:41
Because the consumer
15:43
global's outside outside the US. Right?
15:45
We're focused on the UK for second. In the
15:47
UK, the consumer was almost taught
15:50
ten or fifteen minute deliveries and
15:52
more. In New York, that was the case too.
15:54
That's not a sustainable business model.
15:57
Right? Any stretch of imagination. The reason
15:59
why it's not sustainable is because you can't
16:01
batch order. Right? What makes a group
16:03
of orders really, really profitable is if
16:05
a driver can leave with 234
16:07
orders at once and still deliver it
16:09
quickly. So what we learned from on the consumer
16:11
side, I'm talking about the US business, and I
16:14
think it translates really well on a
16:16
global scale too, is people don't necessarily
16:18
want a really fast delivery. They want
16:20
a really consistent delivery. So they
16:22
really have, like, a thirty minute
16:24
average with A78 minute
16:27
deviation than a twenty
16:29
minute average with a fifteen minute deviation,
16:31
where there's an inconsistency in
16:33
delivery. And that's kind of been
16:36
our go to for 567
16:38
years. And I think we get a little carried away
16:40
in the UK with trying
16:42
to match what the local
16:45
layers we're doing. Instead of going back to our
16:47
roots, which is like, hey, this is what
16:49
consumers generally want is consistent
16:51
delivery. And two, by the way, that's the
16:53
profitable business. Right? Because you can bid
16:55
and batch a lot better. Your tech can predict
16:57
orders coming in a lot better. And then in
17:00
turn, you can deliver a really great experience.
17:02
How does batching actually change that you
17:04
can always? To me listening from the outside,
17:06
I go, I I see if that makes sense.
17:08
maybe a five ten percent difference,
17:10
but it doesn't like make a inherently unsustainable
17:13
business, suddenly sustainable. How does
17:15
that actually change so you can always
17:18
just to help me understand that. You need a
17:20
lot less drivers when you batch to fulfill
17:22
a lot more deliveries. So your cost
17:24
on a per order basis, it's actually not
17:26
a ten or fifteen percent swing. Yeah. In
17:28
a market that has a high ODH,
17:31
the amount of orders a driver could fill an hour.
17:33
versus a market that has a weak OTH, the
17:35
cost difference on the variable cost side could
17:37
be as high as fifty percent. It's a massive
17:40
difference of, like, metro that look
17:42
good or a metro that doesn't look good. And generally
17:44
speaking, in our business, a metro that doesn't
17:46
look good is a new metro. Right? Because it doesn't
17:48
have enough orders yet on a per day basis
17:51
where you can effectively batch because batch only
17:53
works well is if enough orders
17:55
are coming in or system could predict
17:57
enough orders are gonna about to come in, and
17:59
the same two or three square block
18:02
radius of a given city
18:04
or neighborhood or whatever that MFC is placed.
18:06
So if you're gonna able to with a high degree
18:08
of confidence, predict that, hey, an order came
18:10
in the next two, three minutes, wait to
18:12
send that order out. Next two to three minutes, another
18:15
order is gonna come in within that same block
18:17
or in a really good city. Orders just
18:19
flying in. They're doing 5678
18:21
hundred orders a day. Or you don't even have that
18:23
problem anymore. the system is just kinda working
18:25
in the back end, batching orders together and sending
18:27
it out. And the key to that, right, the on the
18:29
end side,
18:30
why it's lot cheaper? You just need a lot less
18:32
driver partners.
18:32
You have fewer driver partners
18:34
doing a lot more deliveries. And by
18:36
the way, your driver partners love this. Right?
18:39
Because they're making a lot more money. They're getting paid on the
18:41
per delivery side. So they're a lot more money,
18:43
you need less driver partners to fulfill the
18:45
same amount of orders as a byproduct or
18:47
CPO starts decreasing tremendously.
18:50
Oh, sorry. What's CPN? Cost per order.
18:52
You get use of these acronyms internally and
18:54
then you forget that it's not part of common
18:56
vernacular. No. No. Listen. This is
18:58
totally fine. I would just clarify. in the
19:00
old case, I'd be like, oh, you know, CPO.
19:02
Now I'm like, what the fuck is that? Tell
19:05
me. It is ODH, which is the
19:08
orders per driver per hour. Yeah.
19:10
It's the amount of orders your driver fulfilled per
19:12
hour. Is that the governing metric
19:14
of success in your business, do you think? Or
19:16
is it AOV? Or is it What
19:19
is the governing magic of success
19:21
in your mind? So the first thing is
19:23
none of it matters if you're not producing
19:25
positive unit economics. So a market
19:28
is not producing. If your unit economics
19:30
are negative, it really doesn't matter. on
19:32
what you wanna do or you don't want like, today,
19:34
our focus is a little different than
19:36
maybe the way that you want me to answer that question. Like,
19:38
when you're growing, you wanna do everything. Right? You
19:40
wanna increase basket. or you wanna reduce
19:42
cost. That's right. The only way to to deliver
19:45
positive UDENYCA economics. Once that a market
19:47
is achieved, right, it's target UDENYCA economics.
19:49
Right? There's four dollars positive on a per order basis.
19:52
for we have margins that are doing eight or nine dollars
19:54
positive on a per order basis. After that,
19:56
the only thing that matters is volume. You need to
19:58
produce enough volume then in that city to
20:00
cover your fixed cost. So you're not positive
20:02
on a gross margin basis. You're positive
20:04
on an EBITDA basis. So first step,
20:06
right, in this business, is deliver positive unit
20:08
economics. starting with a healthy gross
20:11
margin. So that means underlying right
20:13
built business. Right? You have good vendor relations.
20:15
You have the right distribution centers.
20:17
You have the right contractually and a whole host
20:19
of things that lead to building the right assortment
20:22
and having the right gross margin associated with
20:24
it. And then Two, after
20:26
you've built your your target
20:29
because, like, our AOV's improved hundreds
20:31
of percentages since we've launched the business.
20:33
Right? And we had an AOV in
20:35
the teens, then in the twenties, now
20:37
in the thirties, right, on the on
20:39
average basis, as the basketball sides
20:42
continue to improve and as we continue to build
20:44
more technology to be able to have been in
20:46
batch better, the next layer of
20:48
that is just more orders. because now every
20:50
order that's leaving the door is very profitable.
20:52
So to get profitable on aggregate
20:55
basis, right, and the total EBITDA basis, you
20:57
just need enough orders. That makes sense? It totally
20:59
makes sense in terms of the orders. The thing that I think
21:01
too straightaway is actually Facebook, which
21:03
sounds terribly weird, but I'm gonna explain
21:06
Facebook obviously had the magic that once you added,
21:08
I think it was five friends, you were like a
21:10
retained or an engaged user. Thinking
21:12
about kind of order frequency and cohorts,
21:14
How do you determine a retained Go
21:17
Puff user? What is the frequency which
21:19
shows you that you have a retained user
21:21
with a behavioral change towards Go
21:23
Puff? actually two ways to look at it. A customer
21:26
that orders across three categories in
21:28
their first order will spend six
21:30
hundred dollars more that year. than
21:32
a customer that orders from one or two categories.
21:35
So it's not just how it's
21:37
not just how frequent
21:38
they order. It's what is
21:40
the first time, the very first time they get
21:42
come to go above. What is their shopping behavior?
21:44
So are they coming into the with the intent
21:46
of I heard this place has really great ice
21:48
cream. I'm gonna buy a pint of ice cream. That
21:51
customer their first year will spend
21:53
less money than customer that comes and
21:55
buys their ice cream and also buys a
21:57
snack and also buys some
21:59
household items and maybe some bad Drier
22:02
more categories means significantly more
22:04
spend that first year. So what we
22:06
try to do is read better discovery.
22:09
on the first experience. Right? Give broader
22:11
kind of category discovery, right, when
22:13
you launch a go above, especially on a new time
22:16
And also, we try to drive behavior
22:18
to get to two orders in the first fourteen
22:20
days. That's really, really important. What
22:22
you're seeing is that you have your biggest
22:25
drop off from order one to order two,
22:27
then you have a smaller drop off from
22:29
order two to order three. And once it gets into the third
22:31
order, they're our customer. not leaving go. Right?
22:33
If you look at order three customers
22:35
that meet it over three and you look at the retention
22:37
cohorts over the next twelve months, we're losing,
22:40
like, low single digit percent of our or is that
22:42
two three percent. So once that gets at order
22:44
three, there are hours. The struggle is not
22:46
just getting into order three, but getting into order
22:48
three quickly. us like many other e commerce
22:50
players used to do an incentive only off
22:52
one order. Right? All of our incentives now
22:54
are value over time. Right? We built
22:57
a gamification into our platform
22:59
where daily you could come in, you could spend
23:01
the wheel, get free puff points, which
23:03
can be then used for for prizes. You
23:05
can win things and spin the wheel like a
23:07
white claw sponsor at a Tesla. So one customer
23:10
is gonna get a free Tesla. or Live Nation
23:12
tickets on a global scale to see their favorite
23:14
artist. So, like, we give people a reason to keep
23:16
coming back. Even after purchase, just keep coming
23:18
back in the app and utilize it. And one of
23:20
the single largest driving factors
23:22
is we improved fan tremendously. So
23:25
we started the year with eleven
23:27
percent of our subscribers being fan customers.
23:29
So fan is our subscription program. Two
23:31
quarters later, eleven percent has
23:33
now become thirty percent. Thirty percent now
23:35
of our ordering customers are fan customers
23:37
and their behavior, especially if
23:39
we get them on the first order, is widely
23:42
different than customers that don't sign up
23:44
to fan, whether diverse second third order.
23:46
We believe we're just getting started there. We believe
23:48
the steady state number is north of
23:50
fifty five or sixty percent. couple of things I
23:52
just wanna touch on. Can I push you on
23:54
the fan side? Have you done testing?
23:57
And how much does it cost to be a fan member?
23:59
I am in the UK, but I can't remember how much
24:01
cost, which is not my point, but how
24:03
much is it? Six dollars a month. Have you
24:05
done price elasticity testing on
24:07
that six dollars a month? because if you increase
24:09
it right now, we have test running right now. As
24:12
we speak, we have a test running right now. So it's
24:14
out in the wild. because I think on that
24:16
It's one of those ones where you could unbelievably
24:19
increase revenues without changing
24:21
the thing. So we haven't seen
24:23
a big drop on conversion on
24:25
price The question is is what
24:28
that behavior looks like 234 months
24:30
out. Is that customer continues to hang
24:32
a customer at a higher price point where we think
24:34
consumers spending is gonna get accepted over
24:36
the next couple of quarters. So where I
24:38
believe the world is gonna head is in
24:40
the next two or three quarters, the customer is gonna
24:43
get more price conscious they're gonna have
24:45
less disposable income, and they're gonna start
24:47
making decisions on what are the most important
24:49
things in their life. And the way that
24:51
we've structured Go Pop Is it like
24:54
BAM specifically? It's like a no brainer
24:56
to be a part of BAM? It's very, very affordable.
24:58
In general, Gopah, it's very, very affordable.
25:00
It's in line to what people see in traditional
25:02
retail from a pricing perspective. And
25:05
the last thing that we want them to do in a real
25:07
is start increasing fees and pricing
25:10
in a way where today doesn't matter,
25:12
but two or three quarters where consumer spending
25:14
starts getting affected. They're like, well, I hope it's
25:16
too expensive for me to continue to
25:18
be there's efficient customer or such
25:20
an active customer. Does it change your inventory?
25:23
Do you think about, hey, how do we introduce
25:25
more? We have pound land in the UK,
25:27
I guess, be Dollar General in the US,
25:30
but like very much, very dollar
25:33
centric products, which shine
25:35
on that it to dollaries. Do you think about
25:37
changing inventory in that way or not?
25:39
Yeah. I've been studying a lot the past two
25:41
recessions that have been happening in the US
25:43
and what are the industries that grew
25:46
through recessions. Alcohol is
25:48
particularly resistant to
25:50
any effects of an economic downturn. I
25:52
think people drink when they're happier. They drink
25:54
when they're sad. I think the the type
25:56
of alcohol that's purchased during the recession
25:58
is different. Right? People are not gonna be buying your
26:00
three three hundred dollar price tag item,
26:02
but they're gonna be buying more of
26:04
your fifteen, twenty dollar price point item.
26:07
So I actually don't think baskets are gonna
26:09
change from a dollar amount perspective,
26:11
but the assortment inside of the basket today is
26:13
gonna change. Right? More of the
26:15
budget bottles, but more quantity versus
26:18
one high ticket, high end item. So
26:20
We've been leaning into alcohol in a really big way.
26:22
Convenience also grew during the last
26:25
recession, especially a few categories within Convenience.
26:27
Vices do very well. So we've been focused
26:30
on studying the trends of
26:32
the two previous years as the best data we have. I've never
26:34
lived through a recession. The closest thing I've
26:36
had to economic downturn was on a micro
26:39
basis because we didn't raise any money in the
26:41
beginning. So we had to behave like we were in recession,
26:43
but we actually never lived as CEO's
26:45
third recession. So we've been studying the
26:48
last two times it happened, how did people
26:50
behave? And we've been building continuing to
26:52
build an assortment. that kind of matches those
26:54
kind of behaviors. Before we touch on kind of leadership
26:56
through more macro challenging times,
26:58
we sat with friendlies and so we can do this, but
27:01
I'm just I was interested. Why did you put out
27:03
of Spain? I don't think we should ever launch
27:05
Spain. This is like Harry, me being very,
27:07
very honest with you. We got into Spain
27:09
via the Didia acquisition. we
27:11
probably should have pulled out immediately. I
27:13
think as founder, when you're in the midst
27:15
of a bull market and everything
27:18
is going great and you're core
27:20
US business is rocking. Things
27:22
are just piling on top of each other. Good
27:25
things I'm talking about. Piling on top of each
27:27
other. Everyone is telling you to do more.
27:29
because you've shown a massive track
27:31
record of operational excellence, you
27:33
kinda get this idea that
27:35
you could take on more than you should take
27:37
on. And we've always had
27:40
a nail it, then scale it mentality.
27:43
And Spain was a scale it, then
27:45
nail it strategy. What we really should have
27:47
done in Europe is we should own the UK.
27:49
We're now like I think twenty five percent market
27:51
share in UK and needs Now
27:53
that in the next two months will be in
27:55
low to mid thirties. We're gonna continue to grow
27:58
and kinda dominate dominate there. We should have become
27:59
the number one player. k. On the UK,
28:02
then expanded to our next country. You know, that's what
28:04
we did in the US as we continue to kind
28:06
of expand throughout states. We used to own a market
28:08
entirely own a market, kill everybody in there,
28:10
and then continue to expand. That
28:12
strategy put it out to be super fruitful
28:15
because we opened up New York for example
28:17
last a lot of people thought that, like, you
28:19
guys are way too late. There's so many players.
28:21
Right? We own seventy percent of the Anthony's market
28:23
in New York right now. That's not even close.
28:25
to the number two player, but they were the last player
28:27
to come in because we really part of
28:30
my life, we had our shit together in a very, very
28:32
deep way. That's the way we should have handled
28:34
Europe, right, in hindsight. Right? no one has a crystal
28:36
ball. Right? No one a year ago could have told you in
28:38
the midst of a bull market that we'd be going through
28:40
this kind of economic downturn and maybe it wouldn't
28:42
have mattered. If we continue to stay through a bull
28:44
market, and people continue to value
28:47
kind of growth over consolidated EBITDA.
28:50
Here we are. Have you known that it was
28:52
coming? What else would you have done differently?
28:54
Like, closing Spain straightaway would have been one.
28:56
Is there anything else that you would have done differently?
28:58
Probably wouldn't have test did as many
29:01
things as we've tested. Right? I mentioned pharmacy
29:03
to you. It's not even the money aspect of
29:05
the distraction factor for the team.
29:07
Not focusing on the things that matter most
29:09
and mentioned kitchens earlier, we probably
29:12
opened up too many kitchens too fast.
29:14
Like, right now, we're we're ready to open
29:16
up a lot more kitchens. because the business
29:18
is so well oiled. In general, we
29:20
were moving very very fast because
29:22
the market was rewarding
29:24
us for moving fast. because we continue to deliver
29:26
in a really big way. Here and I continue to
29:28
over deliver in the things that we do it.
29:31
And the market's like, you know, wires and we did
29:33
everything and our investors every we'd be doing
29:35
even more, right, who you're saying no so much.
29:37
What about Southeast Asia? What about Japan?
29:39
What about, you know, the rest of your we said
29:41
no so much of things, but in hindsight,
29:43
we probably should have said no even more. And just
29:45
really focused on the things that we're exceptional
29:48
at. Innovation is good, but innovation just
29:50
for the sake of innovation is not good. I mean,
29:52
innovate where it's important for the customer
29:54
and where the customer really wants. And it's
29:56
a funny thing. Right? You get rewarded as a byproduct.
29:59
My one question though, actually, when I look at it
30:01
is, is this time and, you know, listen, a
30:03
recession is always horrible. People lose
30:05
jobs. It's not a nice thing, obviously.
30:07
But is this time literally secretly
30:10
good for you. And what I mean by that, and I say
30:12
this is your friend. But if I analyze the last two
30:14
years, bluntly the competition, I don't think
30:16
served you well, think the likes of local
30:18
players in the UK made you go to the ten minute
30:20
delivery when or try and do the ten minute delivery when
30:23
it wasn't optimal. It obviously increased cats
30:25
for everyone. Do you at think
30:27
that this period will cause a lot of people
30:29
to not be in business anymore
30:31
and only the strong survive. Any
30:34
business across any industry. Let's not focus
30:36
on profitability is cooked. Instant needs
30:38
is no is no exception. As it
30:40
relates to instant needs, a lot
30:42
more people are gonna find it really hard to stay
30:44
in business, especially the people that are
30:46
today, which is a good majority and
30:48
are thinking that this is not so bad. Right? We're
30:51
gonna come out the other side of this really
30:53
stronger. This is gonna be over in a quarter or
30:55
two. And, Harry, my experience, I've seen
30:57
that paranoid founders are usually
30:59
the founders that win. the ultra paranoid,
31:01
right, that are prepared for anything, right, are usually
31:04
the ones that win. And that's how we're
31:06
church treating it. We're we're ready for
31:08
anything that the macro
31:10
throws at us, and we're building towards
31:13
a business that's completely self funded. Is
31:15
this an acquisition opportunity fee?
31:17
with many of these players really looking for access.
31:20
We've seen them looking for access. We're we're both
31:22
in the business. We've seen them shopping around
31:24
and they're brokers shopping around. Is this one where
31:26
you're like actually we have real opportunity
31:28
to buy something at a good price here that
31:30
wouldn't be around without us buying them.
31:32
You know, yes or no. It's such a massive
31:35
distraction to integrate a
31:37
shitty business. Some of these businesses
31:39
have a decent amount of customers, and
31:41
it just makes sense to to think about acquiring
31:43
them for the user base. which is
31:45
very different than in our business.
31:47
The logistical technological business,
31:50
the acquired business that doesn't have really good infrastructure,
31:52
doesn't have really good tech, You have to scrap
31:54
everything. You have to integrate your systems. You
31:56
go into their buildings. Their buildings are
31:59
their trash. Right? The distraction of
32:01
having to do this the juices not
32:04
worth a squeeze, not out of ten
32:06
times. But at one out of ten where you
32:08
had a really strong founder that really
32:10
focused on building the right kind of business
32:12
that's worth looking at. We saw that in DJ, we
32:14
saw that in Fancy, where not even necessarily
32:16
the businesses were very big or strong, but
32:18
the founders were so good and they
32:20
matched our values so well that it just made
32:22
sense to integrate. Not today. In today's
32:25
environment, we're being very, very picky,
32:27
right, and bringing on businesses that have
32:29
not set up that same correct
32:31
infrastructure that we want them to. And two,
32:33
frankly, like, we don't wanna inherit the
32:35
losses that this business has. and sometimes
32:38
those losses are massive. Very small
32:40
business from a revenue perspective with
32:42
very, very large losses. It's got to be
32:44
right is the long and short way
32:46
of answering that. Two to three years out,
32:48
what does the space look like?
32:51
I'm obviously biased. No.
32:55
I'm not III obviously have a bias.
32:57
The instant needs world
33:00
is very very complicated. And
33:02
I think all kind of a chip on our shoulder.
33:04
A lot of people say, this business can't be profitable
33:07
too decades ago. Web ban and Cosmo
33:09
couldn't make it. So today, two decades
33:11
later, all these players plus go
33:13
by who started this thing it remains
33:16
to be seen whether this could be an even
33:18
a profitable business. That puts a massive
33:20
chip on our shoulder on the Q and I. First of
33:22
all, because we built a profitable business bravo
33:24
for three years. And second of all, a near hundred
33:26
percent degree of confidence that we're gonna do it again in
33:29
the next eighteen months. We have a massive chip on our
33:31
shoulder. delivering that, proving to
33:33
everyone that this is not just an amazing
33:35
consumer business, not just something that consumers
33:37
really love, but a very profitable business.
33:39
and sustainable business. To answer your question,
33:41
folks that are thinking that way, we'll be here to
33:43
stay on top of all of that. We're gonna continue
33:46
to be the number one global player, but
33:48
anyone else that positions themselves
33:50
to build really strong economics and
33:53
profitability will have a right to compete
33:55
in this space. final one for a quick fire.
33:57
If you wouldn't choose one competitor that
33:59
that you most admire, who would it be
34:01
since day one when we launched Gopher.
34:03
We have a look, almost and odd, Amazon.
34:06
I'm talking about not in the instant need space,
34:08
but from a global e commerce perspective,
34:11
everything that we saw from Amazon
34:13
and Bezos why we hired so many people from Amazon.
34:15
It's because we have an immense amount of respect
34:17
for what they built. Right? Specifically in
34:19
the US, getting into any industry
34:21
they see fit. And then for many
34:23
of the years, dominating in that industry
34:26
was something that we drew a lot of inspiration
34:28
from. not even in our industry. I think it's
34:30
probably the most complicated and
34:33
amazing business in the world. Right? And I think
34:35
what they built from logistical perspective
34:38
and then expanding to new business units.
34:40
Right? Whether it's a BA or AWS.
34:43
is something that we take a lot of inspiration
34:45
from. As we launch our new businesses, right,
34:47
whether it's Gopa Bads or some of the
34:49
new businesses that we have brewing, they're launching in
34:51
next two quarters. So If you were to place a bet
34:53
on new business growth for your new business
34:56
lines, it could be ads, it could be kitchens,
34:58
it could be any of the others. What in the next
35:00
two to three years do you think will be the biggest from where
35:02
it is today. I have one that I can't mention that I
35:04
think will be the biggest because we haven't launched it
35:06
yet. I think that business one day can
35:08
be as large as our retail business or as large as
35:10
Go Bub as it exists today. Right? The Go Bub app. think
35:13
we're talking about existing business units that exist
35:15
today. I think our ads business has done
35:17
tremendously well and
35:19
has grown over the last couple of quarters.
35:21
Personally, the kitchen's business is my favorite
35:24
business. I order our cauliflower pizza every
35:26
day. My wife thinks I'm insane, but
35:28
I enjoy it, and I really do think
35:30
that we built an amazing consumer
35:32
product. What I love about the kitchen's business
35:35
even more is that on the stand alone,
35:37
the kitchen's business doesn't make sense. So we
35:39
just launched kind of go up kitchens
35:41
as a stand alone business without
35:43
core go up. Right? All of our general merchandise,
35:46
alcohol, everything else is a byproduct. You
35:48
just don't have in a basket size
35:50
to deliver a profitable business.
35:52
But goboof kitchens married with the core
35:54
goboof assortment together, it really
35:56
is something special that you're seeing in
35:58
markets where we have go of kitchens
36:01
attachment rates of twenty percent. So
36:03
twenty percent of consolidated orders
36:06
adding a kitchen item in there. So I think
36:08
that business shows a lot of promise
36:10
and a lot of growth in something that consumers
36:12
obviously really love. I'm gonna continue
36:14
to place a really massive bet on that business even
36:16
though is capital intensive. Right? You have to physically
36:19
build and open up kitchens. But the
36:21
ROI on those kitchens is becoming
36:23
better and better as we're we're continuing
36:25
to refine this assortment and the quality.
36:27
And then two, it's very rare that you introduce
36:30
a category that improves retention,
36:32
improves frequency, and improves basket. Alcohol
36:35
was one of those categories. The go up of the
36:37
Kitchen's business is another one of those categories.
36:39
It improves all it moves all three KPIs
36:41
in the right direction. One one invests have
36:44
you disagreed with the board on making? And
36:46
it doesn't mean there's like a board disagreement, but like,
36:48
you know, board members have I think we should focus on
36:50
ads. I think we should focus on kits I think it's your first
36:52
home. As I've been one way you've disagreed. Midpoint
36:56
last year, there was a lot of conversation.
36:58
That's just with our board, but investors on how
37:00
fast we should be moving in Europe. and a
37:02
lot of folks were really pushing us
37:04
to expand to Germany, faster, expand
37:07
to other areas in Europe faster, and
37:09
I'm really glad that we didn't. wasn't
37:11
very much a disaster. More of a conversation than
37:13
anything else. I'm like, how fast should we
37:15
be moving in Europe? And how many countries can
37:17
we open up? Because, like, yeah, it's funnier. Right?
37:20
You do well. and you start producing results.
37:22
The word is, like, you know, just replicating that.
37:24
Right? You could get some pattern recognition. Just keep
37:26
replicating what you've been doing. But it's not
37:29
always that simple. Right? Just kinda
37:31
continue to layer. Again, it doesn't
37:33
match our core cut tonnage of nail
37:35
it and scale it. So I think that's probably
37:38
been the
37:38
only one in the last year
37:40
We've had conversations about how fast we should
37:42
be moving in Europe, how much we're expanding. Obviously,
37:45
today, everyone's looking back and saying, good
37:47
that we did it. Again,
37:48
in hindsight, probably should have been
37:50
had a little a little bit more focus if we
37:52
knew this was gonna happen on the bull market basis.
37:54
Ralph, I could talk to you all day as you know. We
37:56
really should do this with every question
37:59
I ask you have to do a Don Julio
38:01
forty two. In every question I answer,
38:03
I can't do that. Oh, yeah. This will
38:05
be a much more open interview. Your
38:07
team are gonna be going holiday. Oh,
38:10
man. I I think fifteen minutes, and we're gonna
38:12
have a hard time talking to one another. There's I'm gonna
38:14
do a quick fire round, which means your screwed if we
38:16
do it to kill a shot. So I say a short statement,
38:18
you give me your immediate thoughts. What gets harder
38:21
and what gets easier with scale? What
38:23
gets harder managing people
38:25
in culture. You have to be even more transparent
38:28
and you have to spend and have been bigger
38:30
time with your team to make sure that everyone
38:32
has the same vision and understanding where you're
38:34
going through. It's easier. Right? It's a
38:36
different kind of hard work. You and
38:38
I still spend a day in the week inside of
38:40
the MFC every single week. who travel to
38:42
a new MFC and visit it. So I think it's
38:45
a core and important part of who we are,
38:47
but the physical labor gets easier
38:49
to mental labor gets a lot harder. Tell
38:51
me, what do you know now that you wish you'd known at
38:53
the start of Goprof? Hire Mueller faster.
38:55
And Mueller doesn't mean a person
38:57
that comes from pedigree of a background,
39:00
but a person that has deep subject matter
39:02
expertise in a given topic.
39:04
So all the advancements that we
39:06
made on the routing side for his but we hired
39:09
we're out and started to have our expertise seven
39:11
years ago instead of five years ago or four years
39:13
ago, we would probably be even more advanced today.
39:16
So given the state we were in our first three
39:18
years of being bootstrapped, we had to be very,
39:20
very careful on the talent we
39:22
bring onboard because of how much it costs. if
39:24
we hired some of that talent earlier, especially
39:27
on the engineering and product side, we would have
39:29
been even further I mean, like, we're the furthest
39:31
ahead of any incident you'd player by
39:33
a mask of margin, but that margin
39:35
would be even wider. They were able to hire
39:37
even earlier. Peninsula one. Who's your closest
39:40
mentor on what he learned from them? So, you know,
39:42
Karen, I've been really, really fortunate.
39:44
You know, we're cognizant of the fact that we're twenty nine.
39:46
And the way that we've gone into the place
39:49
where we got into is by surrounding our owned by
39:51
the best people. I'm gonna mention someone because you
39:53
spoke to them, which is a meal. Meal Michael
39:55
has been close friend and an adviser
39:58
to Jared and I for five years,
40:00
six years now, and he's probably
40:02
the best dealmaker in the world. I firmly
40:04
believe that. He's been nothing besides being
40:06
an ally and a closer Vyze or in everything.
40:09
He's been an amazing friend. He's been he's
40:11
been really, really awesome. Final one for you,
40:13
my friend. Where is Gopuff in five years
40:15
time? Very simple. In the US,
40:17
we are a dumb disputed leader and
40:19
instead needs, hey, we cover a third of the
40:21
US. Hopefully, that number is much higher
40:23
in five years. and we've broken
40:26
into and becoming the dominant player
40:28
in a lot more categories. Again, I never
40:30
thought that the in authority and the baby
40:32
and pet category. I think I'm gonna be
40:34
saying in five years, a lot more categories
40:37
than ever thought that I'd be an authority in,
40:39
but we're an authority in, on a global scale.
40:41
we're continuing to dominate expansion.
40:44
But I think this time around, we're gonna own
40:46
a market entirely and open
40:48
up other markets that we're gonna own entirely
40:50
before expanding to new markets. don't know how
40:52
many markets that includes, but we're excited
40:54
to see. Graph, I could challenge you all day. Nice
40:56
and third time lucky that comes tequila.
40:58
But thank you so much this has been fantastic.
41:01
Here you're an investment.
41:04
I
41:04
just love doing the twenty VC memo
41:06
episodes. Let me know what you think of the memo
41:08
so it's on Twitter at harrystepings. Likewise,
41:11
you can see more from us behind the scenes on
41:13
twenty b c dot com. But before we
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leave each day, but we will hope we never
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going. As always, I so appreciate all your support.
43:14
And on Friday, we have the wonderful Michael
43:17
Mabusa, one of my favorite writer's
43:19
economic thinkers on the show. He
43:21
is fantastic, stay tuned, incredible
43:23
episode to come.
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