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20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

Released Wednesday, 2nd November 2022
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20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

20VC: The GoPuff Memo: Why 10-15 Minute Delivery is an Unsustainable Model, The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024, Mistakes Made in Europe and What the Europe Plan Should Have Been and What Does Quick Commerce Look Like in 5 Years with Rafael Illisha

Wednesday, 2nd November 2022
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0:00

the consumer was almost taught

0:02

ten or fifteen minute deliveries and

0:04

more. That's not a sustainable business

0:06

model. We build a new financial

0:08

model that's completely self funded. One

0:10

that doesn't require any more outside capital, one

0:12

that only looks at our balance sheet. Wow.

0:15

This is such a good show. This is twenty NAVC,

0:17

The Go Puff memo, The Monthly Show where we

0:19

deep dive on the business model of one company,

0:21

and really Go Deep. And today, as I mentioned,

0:24

we're going deep on the Go Puff business model

0:26

with Rafael Ishayev, co founder and

0:28

CEO, Gopath, one of the market leaders

0:30

delivering daily essentials in minutes.

0:32

Go Puffs latest funding round, priced the company

0:34

a reported eight point nine billion dollars

0:37

in March twenty twenty one. And to date,

0:39

RAP has raised over two point four billion dollars

0:41

for the company from the Life Excel, Softbank

0:43

Fidelity, Bailey Gifford, and Moore,

0:45

and Rafford scaled the company to over

0:48

one third of the US, with over twelve

0:50

thousand employees nationwide side. But

0:52

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0:54

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2:50

But now it's time for this incredible So

2:52

Raff was fantastic. So I'm gonna hand over

2:54

to Raff Inishai, I have co founder and

2:56

CEO at Go Path.

3:03

You have now arrived at your destination.

3:06

Raff, this is such a joy to do.

3:08

As we just said, if we're in the same city, we

3:10

would be enjoying it together. Sadly,

3:13

we are not and so we're doing a podcast instead.

3:15

Second best. But thank you so much for joining me

3:17

today. Harry, thanks for having me. Second time

3:19

around, I guess I did something right the first time to

3:21

get invited the second time. Really did something

3:23

brilliantly right the first time. I wanna start of

3:25

those that maybe missed the first show. Two to three

3:27

minutes, how did you come to start Go Puffs?

3:30

What was that founding moment? It's kind of crazy.

3:32

It's been almost ten years. Right? We've been at this for

3:34

a decade. But go about started by

3:36

solving our own use case. Here and I were

3:38

college students realized there's a pretty

3:40

big need in market. Everyone was going to the

3:42

convenience store to drug store to pick up everything

3:45

they needed. That experience wasn't

3:47

always very safe, and it wasn't always great, everyone

3:49

was always busy. And we said why doesn't anyone

3:51

stock and deliver all these goods?

3:54

Two students kind of across the country. Right?

3:56

We could start this in Philadelphia, and had a

3:58

little bit of an unorthodox start. As you know, Harry,

3:59

we didn't raise money for our first three years.

4:02

Profitable from day one, you the profits

4:04

from Philadelphia. Right? Back then, Go Buff was

4:06

different service Right? And today, we're five thousand

4:09

items. Back then, we're a hundred to two hundred items,

4:11

snacks, drinks, and we use the

4:13

profits that we had from early Gopav

4:15

one point o to expand to five cities

4:17

until we raise their first round, and then Gopav

4:20

really started changing. Right? Alcohol, ice cream,

4:22

vertical medication, baby pads,

4:24

this kitchen's business that we have, all these

4:26

new verticals to now where we are today

4:29

over thousand cities on the global scale.

4:31

twelve thousand employees globally,

4:33

much more drivers, obviously. So there's

4:35

so many ways I wanna take this. When we

4:37

spoke last time bluntly, capital was

4:40

cheap. Money was pouring into the space,

4:42

and it's a very different landscape state. The careful

4:44

is dried up across the board, but especially in

4:46

this space. We've seen businesses go

4:49

bust in the space, many. I wanted to want

4:51

to start with a little bit of why. Why do you

4:53

think the capital has dried up specifically

4:55

for this space? And what are the cool drive Capital

4:58

markets have not been friendly for any

5:00

growth companies over the last,

5:02

I would say, two to three quarters. But we're talking

5:04

about instant needs specifically. When you're starting

5:07

business as complicated as our business, right,

5:09

where you have so much technological needs,

5:11

supply chain needs, logistical needs,

5:14

or you really need to nail it before you scale

5:16

it, you have to really focus on

5:19

the inner crops of your business, the infrastructure

5:21

of your business before really expanding

5:23

in a very big way. And that's what we did for

5:25

our first couple of years. We spent a lot of

5:27

time building the technology inside of the four

5:29

wall of the building, building operation excellence

5:32

and then really scaling the business by

5:34

proving that we can deliver really strong unit

5:36

economics. Pretty much everyone else

5:38

in the instant need space from across

5:41

the globe had the opposite strategy. All

5:43

we need to do is open up a whole host of buildings,

5:45

figure out the tech leader. We'll figure out the

5:47

operational excellence leader. The supply

5:49

chain set up. It's fine. We'll figure it out

5:52

later. So it would scale it, then

5:54

nail it. strategy. And when

5:57

the capital markets started getting more

5:59

constricted, they realized their underlying

6:01

business isn't all that strong. They're not

6:03

producing really strong unit economics. As

6:05

a byproduct, a lot of people started really

6:08

struggling. Really, it's just the beginning. I think it's

6:10

gonna continue. That trend is gonna continue

6:12

to accelerate because the initial strategy

6:14

was grow at all cost, not really

6:16

nail our business really nail our

6:18

unit economics and then scale the business.

6:21

My take was bluntly that as the cost

6:23

of capital went up, Capital intense

6:25

low margin businesses became

6:28

more and more of a challenge for investors

6:31

to finance. Would you agree with that summarization

6:33

Or would you say that's not fair to categorize

6:36

our spaces, capital intense and low

6:38

margin? If this business has done right, it's

6:40

actually not a low margin business. if

6:42

you set up your your structure

6:44

correctly and you're buying correctly

6:46

and your ads business is working correctly.

6:49

And now we're launching a whole new host businesses

6:51

that they're gonna improve our margin structure more.

6:53

Our gross margin structure is actually

6:55

among the best in, if you categorize,

6:58

like, our retail peers inside of our tech peers,

7:00

it's among the bets. Right? We have gross margin

7:02

in the high 30s, low 40s depending

7:05

on the region that you're in. It's actually really,

7:07

really healthy margins to operate a profitable

7:09

business. especially on a unit level. What

7:11

I'll say though is a lot of people I don't

7:14

wanna beat the dead horse here, but a lot of people

7:16

when they were expanding to city to city, they

7:18

just weren't focused on how do

7:20

we build really, really strong margin

7:22

profile in the business. Right? It's no question why

7:24

infrastructure is expensive. Right? You have to build

7:26

buildings to the setup rags, you need

7:28

equipment to hold nine yards, but the

7:30

return on capital on this business and how

7:33

fast these markets pay back is really,

7:35

really incredible once you start humming correctly.

7:37

Right? In the beginning, right, it took maybe a year,

7:39

a year and a half for building to recoup its

7:41

investment. now that some buildings you open

7:43

up three months later, you recoup all your

7:46

fixed cost. So it really just

7:48

boils down to did you set

7:50

the right amount of time energy on

7:53

nailing the fiscal responsibility

7:55

portion of this business being really strong

7:58

on fiscal side and then scale the business,

7:59

or you said, hey, I wanna grow at all cost. I

8:02

wanna expense as many cities as I can. And

8:04

we'll figure out our distributors later. We'll figure

8:06

out our technology

8:08

inside of the four walls and routing, bidding, and

8:10

batching leader. That was your strategy. The

8:12

capital markets are gonna crush you the next

8:15

two, three quarters. you mentioned the margin element

8:17

there. First, how do the margin levels

8:19

vary when comparing your most mature

8:21

markets, your Philadelphia, your strongest markets

8:23

in the US? to your incredibly

8:26

new markets, say in Europe or anything that you

8:28

expand to. What is that margin? You said high

8:30

thirties, low forties? Is it like negative

8:32

on the margin side and new. What does that

8:34

variance look like? Margin is not

8:37

the only element to profitability. Right? You

8:39

need a healthy basket size. because

8:41

you take dollars to the bank, right, not percentage

8:43

points. As an example, alcohol is our

8:45

lowest gross margin percentage category,

8:48

but our highest gross margin dollar category.

8:50

his baskets are much higher with algolbaskets

8:52

than on algolbaskets. So you rather lose

8:55

a few percentage points on the gross

8:57

margin percentage side and gain

8:59

ten or fifteen dollars on the basket

9:01

size. The analogy bring home are much higher. So

9:03

across the US today, Right? I'm

9:05

gonna exclude Europe. All the new markets

9:08

that we've spent into generally

9:10

look very similar. They start with

9:13

a slightly slower basket size because there's

9:15

kind of direct correlation between ten year and

9:17

AOV. The longer you stay on the platform, the more

9:19

you start ordering on GoBox. In Europe,

9:22

I'm kind of focused on the UK for a second.

9:24

basket has grown a lot over

9:26

the last two quarters, but it's

9:28

still double digits lower

9:30

than what we see in the U. S. when we're starting

9:33

to market So it's grown fast. I

9:35

think the number one focus we have in

9:37

the UK specifically today is continuing

9:39

to drive a higher basket. Now

9:41

we're in the 20s from basket size

9:44

perspective. I think that business is

9:46

continuing to grow and I think it's

9:48

possible in the next couple of quarters we're in

9:50

the high twenties, low thirties from an AOV perspective.

9:52

Given what we said about kind of the capital availability

9:55

for the space itself, is this a

9:57

race to profitability now? for everyone

9:59

surviving in the space. Any company

10:02

in any space that's not thinking

10:04

about profitability right now

10:06

and is not focused on profitability. There

10:09

is a higher chance they're not

10:11

that these companies will probably not exist

10:13

in the next year or year and a half. no matter

10:15

how stronger balance sheet is because no one

10:17

has a crystal ball. No one knows how long this is

10:19

gonna last. No one knows how long

10:21

the capital markets are gonna continue to stay

10:23

depressed. And the reality is,

10:25

you know, I could speak for us, we build

10:28

a new financial model that's completely

10:30

self funded. One that there's acquire anymore on

10:32

that Capital One that only looks on our balance

10:34

sheet. It's not one where we

10:36

said, hey, we're gonna cut all costs completely. We're

10:38

gonna stop innovation completely. We could be profitable

10:40

and fast. stir. But it's still somewhat of

10:43

a balance of being able to

10:45

continue to grow, continue to innovate, right,

10:47

like our kitchen's business, for example, is

10:49

crushing. Every week is a record from the week

10:51

prior year. We wanna continue to invest into that

10:53

business because it's doing well, but we're not gonna

10:55

invest that how we used to invest. We're not gonna be opening

10:57

up two or three dozen buildings a month that have

10:59

kitchens. So it's a balance between

11:02

driving really strong EBITDA and

11:04

still innovating for the customer show. debt

11:06

balance for us at least meant that we're profitable

11:08

in twenty twenty four. What's the core differences

11:10

between the old financial plan and

11:12

the new financial plan you mentioned? What are

11:14

the big changes? It's less buildings.

11:16

So if you look at on a metro basis,

11:19

all of our existing metros are

11:21

producing cash flow. So you have your

11:23

call in your cash cows. Right? And Philadelphia,

11:25

Chicago, Boston, all

11:28

of our Texas markets of the world that are

11:30

producing cash flow, but you have a lot

11:32

of new markets that need time

11:34

to get first to uneconomic profitability

11:37

and EBITDA profitability. So if

11:39

you continue to open up markets, you're going

11:41

to continue to have existing business

11:44

that produces free cash flow, but this

11:46

emerging business that's still requiring

11:48

investment and causing the overall picture

11:51

to be negative. EBITDA picture. So for

11:53

us, that meant opening up significantly less

11:55

buildings, less kind of fixed cost out the

11:57

door, not focusing on initiatives

11:59

that are might be good

12:02

for tomorrow, but not so good for today,

12:04

like, I'll I'll be one that hits kind of close

12:06

to home. We launched a pharmacy business. we're

12:08

actually delivering prescription drugs to

12:10

folks. And I love that business.

12:13

And it's one that think will come back to

12:15

one day, but we just said, hey, Matt. a great

12:17

idea just not for twenty twenty two.

12:19

Sometimes saying no to these really

12:21

shiny objects that customers might really love,

12:23

but it just like given the environment

12:26

of today, we can't afford to invest

12:28

eight figures in this net new business that's

12:30

gonna take multiple years to pay back.

12:32

Right? Because it takes while for these business incubate

12:34

and then reach a terminal velocity and everything

12:36

else. So being really, really strict from a prioritization

12:39

perspective and then also controlling

12:41

your fixed costs. Right? So we're not gonna add

12:44

of hundreds of more buildings in the next eighteen

12:47

months. We're not gonna be opening buildings

12:49

that we were opening a buildings in the last eighteen months.

12:51

From a prioritization perspective, I spoke to Emmanuel

12:53

Michael before the show, wonderful conversation

12:55

I had with him. But he told me about all the different avenues

12:57

and products that you can build. and I I'm

13:00

fascinated when you think about that and the question that

13:02

we just have that. In this new, more capital

13:04

constrained, newer financial plan

13:06

world, how do you fundamentally prioritize

13:08

between the initiatives you do do versus

13:10

those that you don't do. So a

13:13

lot of products that you build in the product

13:15

roadmap are things that are good for

13:17

you or things that are good for the customer. And sometimes

13:19

there's an overlap. Things that are good for you. You

13:21

meaning the team or the company and the

13:23

customer meaning the So sometimes there's an overlap.

13:26

Being relentlessly focused on things that

13:28

are only gonna drive better consumer

13:30

behavior, and tell you, like a feature that we're launching,

13:32

we've talked to a lot of customers and feedback they

13:34

get as either place an order on go above and right after

13:37

I place an order, like, god, I forgot

13:39

to paste. like mobile, or battery is very

13:41

immediately after I click the place order button.

13:43

So we'll give people a chance to

13:45

post their order to continue to build their basket

13:47

for anything they want remind me, believe, these

13:49

are the items that most frequently most

13:51

people most frequently forget. So a lot

13:53

of those kind of features where we're

13:55

really listening to the customer that we're

13:57

really doubling and tripling down on. The driver's

13:59

side, the first week of October,

14:02

we're having global rollout of

14:04

a new routing software. So we've integrated

14:07

almost entirely the right OS business.

14:09

That's improved routing, bidding, and batching tremendously.

14:12

It's all under the scope of Umbrella now. the

14:14

first week of October, we have

14:16

v two of that launching, which I

14:18

think will keep p ninety delivery

14:20

time stable but will improve our

14:22

ability to bin in batch by

14:24

think pretty close double digits. That's not

14:27

a really huge effect on the consumer side.

14:29

Consumers actually won't see a mass a difference

14:31

from a delivery type perspective, but it'll

14:33

save us a good bit of money on our CPO

14:35

side. It's interesting because what worries me

14:38

and what I've seen is a consumer. I will never

14:40

lie to you, they're half. I have a

14:42

a propensity to switch between different providers.

14:44

And what I've seen with certain providers

14:46

is with the cutting of costs,

14:49

you see two things really happen. Well,

14:51

three things. One is customer service

14:53

is the first to go, live chat goes,

14:55

and that sucks. Two,

14:58

you see increased delivery times. It

15:00

was ten minutes. Now it's forty forty five

15:02

or not a tool in some cases. And

15:04

then three is inventory just depleted

15:06

to shit and unavailable. Unlike

15:08

SaaS businesses where if you cut cost,

15:10

the core NetSuite product or Salesforce

15:13

stays the same, you might not have the same cadence

15:15

of innovation and product. But when you cut

15:17

cost here in our businesses, you

15:20

really feel it. and then it creates this negative

15:22

flywheel of fatware. In most of those

15:24

other services, I don't use them anymore

15:26

because it's so shit across those three dimensions.

15:29

Do you see what I mean? And does that concern

15:31

you? Yep. It absolutely concerns

15:34

us looking back and being a little critical in

15:36

ourselves. Gogo was never built

15:38

to be a ten or fifteen minute delivery service.

15:41

Because the consumer

15:43

global's outside outside the US. Right?

15:45

We're focused on the UK for second. In the

15:47

UK, the consumer was almost taught

15:50

ten or fifteen minute deliveries and

15:52

more. In New York, that was the case too.

15:54

That's not a sustainable business model.

15:57

Right? Any stretch of imagination. The reason

15:59

why it's not sustainable is because you can't

16:01

batch order. Right? What makes a group

16:03

of orders really, really profitable is if

16:05

a driver can leave with 234

16:07

orders at once and still deliver it

16:09

quickly. So what we learned from on the consumer

16:11

side, I'm talking about the US business, and I

16:14

think it translates really well on a

16:16

global scale too, is people don't necessarily

16:18

want a really fast delivery. They want

16:20

a really consistent delivery. So they

16:22

really have, like, a thirty minute

16:24

average with A78 minute

16:27

deviation than a twenty

16:29

minute average with a fifteen minute deviation,

16:31

where there's an inconsistency in

16:33

delivery. And that's kind of been

16:36

our go to for 567

16:38

years. And I think we get a little carried away

16:40

in the UK with trying

16:42

to match what the local

16:45

layers we're doing. Instead of going back to our

16:47

roots, which is like, hey, this is what

16:49

consumers generally want is consistent

16:51

delivery. And two, by the way, that's the

16:53

profitable business. Right? Because you can bid

16:55

and batch a lot better. Your tech can predict

16:57

orders coming in a lot better. And then in

17:00

turn, you can deliver a really great experience.

17:02

How does batching actually change that you

17:04

can always? To me listening from the outside,

17:06

I go, I I see if that makes sense.

17:08

maybe a five ten percent difference,

17:10

but it doesn't like make a inherently unsustainable

17:13

business, suddenly sustainable. How does

17:15

that actually change so you can always

17:18

just to help me understand that. You need a

17:20

lot less drivers when you batch to fulfill

17:22

a lot more deliveries. So your cost

17:24

on a per order basis, it's actually not

17:26

a ten or fifteen percent swing. Yeah. In

17:28

a market that has a high ODH,

17:31

the amount of orders a driver could fill an hour.

17:33

versus a market that has a weak OTH, the

17:35

cost difference on the variable cost side could

17:37

be as high as fifty percent. It's a massive

17:40

difference of, like, metro that look

17:42

good or a metro that doesn't look good. And generally

17:44

speaking, in our business, a metro that doesn't

17:46

look good is a new metro. Right? Because it doesn't

17:48

have enough orders yet on a per day basis

17:51

where you can effectively batch because batch only

17:53

works well is if enough orders

17:55

are coming in or system could predict

17:57

enough orders are gonna about to come in, and

17:59

the same two or three square block

18:02

radius of a given city

18:04

or neighborhood or whatever that MFC is placed.

18:06

So if you're gonna able to with a high degree

18:08

of confidence, predict that, hey, an order came

18:10

in the next two, three minutes, wait to

18:12

send that order out. Next two to three minutes, another

18:15

order is gonna come in within that same block

18:17

or in a really good city. Orders just

18:19

flying in. They're doing 5678

18:21

hundred orders a day. Or you don't even have that

18:23

problem anymore. the system is just kinda working

18:25

in the back end, batching orders together and sending

18:27

it out. And the key to that, right, the on the

18:29

end side,

18:30

why it's lot cheaper? You just need a lot less

18:32

driver partners.

18:32

You have fewer driver partners

18:34

doing a lot more deliveries. And by

18:36

the way, your driver partners love this. Right?

18:39

Because they're making a lot more money. They're getting paid on the

18:41

per delivery side. So they're a lot more money,

18:43

you need less driver partners to fulfill the

18:45

same amount of orders as a byproduct or

18:47

CPO starts decreasing tremendously.

18:50

Oh, sorry. What's CPN? Cost per order.

18:52

You get use of these acronyms internally and

18:54

then you forget that it's not part of common

18:56

vernacular. No. No. Listen. This is

18:58

totally fine. I would just clarify. in the

19:00

old case, I'd be like, oh, you know, CPO.

19:02

Now I'm like, what the fuck is that? Tell

19:05

me. It is ODH, which is the

19:08

orders per driver per hour. Yeah.

19:10

It's the amount of orders your driver fulfilled per

19:12

hour. Is that the governing metric

19:14

of success in your business, do you think? Or

19:16

is it AOV? Or is it What

19:19

is the governing magic of success

19:21

in your mind? So the first thing is

19:23

none of it matters if you're not producing

19:25

positive unit economics. So a market

19:28

is not producing. If your unit economics

19:30

are negative, it really doesn't matter. on

19:32

what you wanna do or you don't want like, today,

19:34

our focus is a little different than

19:36

maybe the way that you want me to answer that question. Like,

19:38

when you're growing, you wanna do everything. Right? You

19:40

wanna increase basket. or you wanna reduce

19:42

cost. That's right. The only way to to deliver

19:45

positive UDENYCA economics. Once that a market

19:47

is achieved, right, it's target UDENYCA economics.

19:49

Right? There's four dollars positive on a per order basis.

19:52

for we have margins that are doing eight or nine dollars

19:54

positive on a per order basis. After that,

19:56

the only thing that matters is volume. You need to

19:58

produce enough volume then in that city to

20:00

cover your fixed cost. So you're not positive

20:02

on a gross margin basis. You're positive

20:04

on an EBITDA basis. So first step,

20:06

right, in this business, is deliver positive unit

20:08

economics. starting with a healthy gross

20:11

margin. So that means underlying right

20:13

built business. Right? You have good vendor relations.

20:15

You have the right distribution centers.

20:17

You have the right contractually and a whole host

20:19

of things that lead to building the right assortment

20:22

and having the right gross margin associated with

20:24

it. And then Two, after

20:26

you've built your your target

20:29

because, like, our AOV's improved hundreds

20:31

of percentages since we've launched the business.

20:33

Right? And we had an AOV in

20:35

the teens, then in the twenties, now

20:37

in the thirties, right, on the on

20:39

average basis, as the basketball sides

20:42

continue to improve and as we continue to build

20:44

more technology to be able to have been in

20:46

batch better, the next layer of

20:48

that is just more orders. because now every

20:50

order that's leaving the door is very profitable.

20:52

So to get profitable on aggregate

20:55

basis, right, and the total EBITDA basis, you

20:57

just need enough orders. That makes sense? It totally

20:59

makes sense in terms of the orders. The thing that I think

21:01

too straightaway is actually Facebook, which

21:03

sounds terribly weird, but I'm gonna explain

21:06

Facebook obviously had the magic that once you added,

21:08

I think it was five friends, you were like a

21:10

retained or an engaged user. Thinking

21:12

about kind of order frequency and cohorts,

21:14

How do you determine a retained Go

21:17

Puff user? What is the frequency which

21:19

shows you that you have a retained user

21:21

with a behavioral change towards Go

21:23

Puff? actually two ways to look at it. A customer

21:26

that orders across three categories in

21:28

their first order will spend six

21:30

hundred dollars more that year. than

21:32

a customer that orders from one or two categories.

21:35

So it's not just how it's

21:37

not just how frequent

21:38

they order. It's what is

21:40

the first time, the very first time they get

21:42

come to go above. What is their shopping behavior?

21:44

So are they coming into the with the intent

21:46

of I heard this place has really great ice

21:48

cream. I'm gonna buy a pint of ice cream. That

21:51

customer their first year will spend

21:53

less money than customer that comes and

21:55

buys their ice cream and also buys a

21:57

snack and also buys some

21:59

household items and maybe some bad Drier

22:02

more categories means significantly more

22:04

spend that first year. So what we

22:06

try to do is read better discovery.

22:09

on the first experience. Right? Give broader

22:11

kind of category discovery, right, when

22:13

you launch a go above, especially on a new time

22:16

And also, we try to drive behavior

22:18

to get to two orders in the first fourteen

22:20

days. That's really, really important. What

22:22

you're seeing is that you have your biggest

22:25

drop off from order one to order two,

22:27

then you have a smaller drop off from

22:29

order two to order three. And once it gets into the third

22:31

order, they're our customer. not leaving go. Right?

22:33

If you look at order three customers

22:35

that meet it over three and you look at the retention

22:37

cohorts over the next twelve months, we're losing,

22:40

like, low single digit percent of our or is that

22:42

two three percent. So once that gets at order

22:44

three, there are hours. The struggle is not

22:46

just getting into order three, but getting into order

22:48

three quickly. us like many other e commerce

22:50

players used to do an incentive only off

22:52

one order. Right? All of our incentives now

22:54

are value over time. Right? We built

22:57

a gamification into our platform

22:59

where daily you could come in, you could spend

23:01

the wheel, get free puff points, which

23:03

can be then used for for prizes. You

23:05

can win things and spin the wheel like a

23:07

white claw sponsor at a Tesla. So one customer

23:10

is gonna get a free Tesla. or Live Nation

23:12

tickets on a global scale to see their favorite

23:14

artist. So, like, we give people a reason to keep

23:16

coming back. Even after purchase, just keep coming

23:18

back in the app and utilize it. And one of

23:20

the single largest driving factors

23:22

is we improved fan tremendously. So

23:25

we started the year with eleven

23:27

percent of our subscribers being fan customers.

23:29

So fan is our subscription program. Two

23:31

quarters later, eleven percent has

23:33

now become thirty percent. Thirty percent now

23:35

of our ordering customers are fan customers

23:37

and their behavior, especially if

23:39

we get them on the first order, is widely

23:42

different than customers that don't sign up

23:44

to fan, whether diverse second third order.

23:46

We believe we're just getting started there. We believe

23:48

the steady state number is north of

23:50

fifty five or sixty percent. couple of things I

23:52

just wanna touch on. Can I push you on

23:54

the fan side? Have you done testing?

23:57

And how much does it cost to be a fan member?

23:59

I am in the UK, but I can't remember how much

24:01

cost, which is not my point, but how

24:03

much is it? Six dollars a month. Have you

24:05

done price elasticity testing on

24:07

that six dollars a month? because if you increase

24:09

it right now, we have test running right now. As

24:12

we speak, we have a test running right now. So it's

24:14

out in the wild. because I think on that

24:16

It's one of those ones where you could unbelievably

24:19

increase revenues without changing

24:21

the thing. So we haven't seen

24:23

a big drop on conversion on

24:25

price The question is is what

24:28

that behavior looks like 234 months

24:30

out. Is that customer continues to hang

24:32

a customer at a higher price point where we think

24:34

consumers spending is gonna get accepted over

24:36

the next couple of quarters. So where I

24:38

believe the world is gonna head is in

24:40

the next two or three quarters, the customer is gonna

24:43

get more price conscious they're gonna have

24:45

less disposable income, and they're gonna start

24:47

making decisions on what are the most important

24:49

things in their life. And the way that

24:51

we've structured Go Pop Is it like

24:54

BAM specifically? It's like a no brainer

24:56

to be a part of BAM? It's very, very affordable.

24:58

In general, Gopah, it's very, very affordable.

25:00

It's in line to what people see in traditional

25:02

retail from a pricing perspective. And

25:05

the last thing that we want them to do in a real

25:07

is start increasing fees and pricing

25:10

in a way where today doesn't matter,

25:12

but two or three quarters where consumer spending

25:14

starts getting affected. They're like, well, I hope it's

25:16

too expensive for me to continue to

25:18

be there's efficient customer or such

25:20

an active customer. Does it change your inventory?

25:23

Do you think about, hey, how do we introduce

25:25

more? We have pound land in the UK,

25:27

I guess, be Dollar General in the US,

25:30

but like very much, very dollar

25:33

centric products, which shine

25:35

on that it to dollaries. Do you think about

25:37

changing inventory in that way or not?

25:39

Yeah. I've been studying a lot the past two

25:41

recessions that have been happening in the US

25:43

and what are the industries that grew

25:46

through recessions. Alcohol is

25:48

particularly resistant to

25:50

any effects of an economic downturn. I

25:52

think people drink when they're happier. They drink

25:54

when they're sad. I think the the type

25:56

of alcohol that's purchased during the recession

25:58

is different. Right? People are not gonna be buying your

26:00

three three hundred dollar price tag item,

26:02

but they're gonna be buying more of

26:04

your fifteen, twenty dollar price point item.

26:07

So I actually don't think baskets are gonna

26:09

change from a dollar amount perspective,

26:11

but the assortment inside of the basket today is

26:13

gonna change. Right? More of the

26:15

budget bottles, but more quantity versus

26:18

one high ticket, high end item. So

26:20

We've been leaning into alcohol in a really big way.

26:22

Convenience also grew during the last

26:25

recession, especially a few categories within Convenience.

26:27

Vices do very well. So we've been focused

26:30

on studying the trends of

26:32

the two previous years as the best data we have. I've never

26:34

lived through a recession. The closest thing I've

26:36

had to economic downturn was on a micro

26:39

basis because we didn't raise any money in the

26:41

beginning. So we had to behave like we were in recession,

26:43

but we actually never lived as CEO's

26:45

third recession. So we've been studying the

26:48

last two times it happened, how did people

26:50

behave? And we've been building continuing to

26:52

build an assortment. that kind of matches those

26:54

kind of behaviors. Before we touch on kind of leadership

26:56

through more macro challenging times,

26:58

we sat with friendlies and so we can do this, but

27:01

I'm just I was interested. Why did you put out

27:03

of Spain? I don't think we should ever launch

27:05

Spain. This is like Harry, me being very,

27:07

very honest with you. We got into Spain

27:09

via the Didia acquisition. we

27:11

probably should have pulled out immediately. I

27:13

think as founder, when you're in the midst

27:15

of a bull market and everything

27:18

is going great and you're core

27:20

US business is rocking. Things

27:22

are just piling on top of each other. Good

27:25

things I'm talking about. Piling on top of each

27:27

other. Everyone is telling you to do more.

27:29

because you've shown a massive track

27:31

record of operational excellence, you

27:33

kinda get this idea that

27:35

you could take on more than you should take

27:37

on. And we've always had

27:40

a nail it, then scale it mentality.

27:43

And Spain was a scale it, then

27:45

nail it strategy. What we really should have

27:47

done in Europe is we should own the UK.

27:49

We're now like I think twenty five percent market

27:51

share in UK and needs Now

27:53

that in the next two months will be in

27:55

low to mid thirties. We're gonna continue to grow

27:58

and kinda dominate dominate there. We should have become

27:59

the number one player. k. On the UK,

28:02

then expanded to our next country. You know, that's what

28:04

we did in the US as we continue to kind

28:06

of expand throughout states. We used to own a market

28:08

entirely own a market, kill everybody in there,

28:10

and then continue to expand. That

28:12

strategy put it out to be super fruitful

28:15

because we opened up New York for example

28:17

last a lot of people thought that, like, you

28:19

guys are way too late. There's so many players.

28:21

Right? We own seventy percent of the Anthony's market

28:23

in New York right now. That's not even close.

28:25

to the number two player, but they were the last player

28:27

to come in because we really part of

28:30

my life, we had our shit together in a very, very

28:32

deep way. That's the way we should have handled

28:34

Europe, right, in hindsight. Right? no one has a crystal

28:36

ball. Right? No one a year ago could have told you in

28:38

the midst of a bull market that we'd be going through

28:40

this kind of economic downturn and maybe it wouldn't

28:42

have mattered. If we continue to stay through a bull

28:44

market, and people continue to value

28:47

kind of growth over consolidated EBITDA.

28:50

Here we are. Have you known that it was

28:52

coming? What else would you have done differently?

28:54

Like, closing Spain straightaway would have been one.

28:56

Is there anything else that you would have done differently?

28:58

Probably wouldn't have test did as many

29:01

things as we've tested. Right? I mentioned pharmacy

29:03

to you. It's not even the money aspect of

29:05

the distraction factor for the team.

29:07

Not focusing on the things that matter most

29:09

and mentioned kitchens earlier, we probably

29:12

opened up too many kitchens too fast.

29:14

Like, right now, we're we're ready to open

29:16

up a lot more kitchens. because the business

29:18

is so well oiled. In general, we

29:20

were moving very very fast because

29:22

the market was rewarding

29:24

us for moving fast. because we continue to deliver

29:26

in a really big way. Here and I continue to

29:28

over deliver in the things that we do it.

29:31

And the market's like, you know, wires and we did

29:33

everything and our investors every we'd be doing

29:35

even more, right, who you're saying no so much.

29:37

What about Southeast Asia? What about Japan?

29:39

What about, you know, the rest of your we said

29:41

no so much of things, but in hindsight,

29:43

we probably should have said no even more. And just

29:45

really focused on the things that we're exceptional

29:48

at. Innovation is good, but innovation just

29:50

for the sake of innovation is not good. I mean,

29:52

innovate where it's important for the customer

29:54

and where the customer really wants. And it's

29:56

a funny thing. Right? You get rewarded as a byproduct.

29:59

My one question though, actually, when I look at it

30:01

is, is this time and, you know, listen, a

30:03

recession is always horrible. People lose

30:05

jobs. It's not a nice thing, obviously.

30:07

But is this time literally secretly

30:10

good for you. And what I mean by that, and I say

30:12

this is your friend. But if I analyze the last two

30:14

years, bluntly the competition, I don't think

30:16

served you well, think the likes of local

30:18

players in the UK made you go to the ten minute

30:20

delivery when or try and do the ten minute delivery when

30:23

it wasn't optimal. It obviously increased cats

30:25

for everyone. Do you at think

30:27

that this period will cause a lot of people

30:29

to not be in business anymore

30:31

and only the strong survive. Any

30:34

business across any industry. Let's not focus

30:36

on profitability is cooked. Instant needs

30:38

is no is no exception. As it

30:40

relates to instant needs, a lot

30:42

more people are gonna find it really hard to stay

30:44

in business, especially the people that are

30:46

today, which is a good majority and

30:48

are thinking that this is not so bad. Right? We're

30:51

gonna come out the other side of this really

30:53

stronger. This is gonna be over in a quarter or

30:55

two. And, Harry, my experience, I've seen

30:57

that paranoid founders are usually

30:59

the founders that win. the ultra paranoid,

31:01

right, that are prepared for anything, right, are usually

31:04

the ones that win. And that's how we're

31:06

church treating it. We're we're ready for

31:08

anything that the macro

31:10

throws at us, and we're building towards

31:13

a business that's completely self funded. Is

31:15

this an acquisition opportunity fee?

31:17

with many of these players really looking for access.

31:20

We've seen them looking for access. We're we're both

31:22

in the business. We've seen them shopping around

31:24

and they're brokers shopping around. Is this one where

31:26

you're like actually we have real opportunity

31:28

to buy something at a good price here that

31:30

wouldn't be around without us buying them.

31:32

You know, yes or no. It's such a massive

31:35

distraction to integrate a

31:37

shitty business. Some of these businesses

31:39

have a decent amount of customers, and

31:41

it just makes sense to to think about acquiring

31:43

them for the user base. which is

31:45

very different than in our business.

31:47

The logistical technological business,

31:50

the acquired business that doesn't have really good infrastructure,

31:52

doesn't have really good tech, You have to scrap

31:54

everything. You have to integrate your systems. You

31:56

go into their buildings. Their buildings are

31:59

their trash. Right? The distraction of

32:01

having to do this the juices not

32:04

worth a squeeze, not out of ten

32:06

times. But at one out of ten where you

32:08

had a really strong founder that really

32:10

focused on building the right kind of business

32:12

that's worth looking at. We saw that in DJ, we

32:14

saw that in Fancy, where not even necessarily

32:16

the businesses were very big or strong, but

32:18

the founders were so good and they

32:20

matched our values so well that it just made

32:22

sense to integrate. Not today. In today's

32:25

environment, we're being very, very picky,

32:27

right, and bringing on businesses that have

32:29

not set up that same correct

32:31

infrastructure that we want them to. And two,

32:33

frankly, like, we don't wanna inherit the

32:35

losses that this business has. and sometimes

32:38

those losses are massive. Very small

32:40

business from a revenue perspective with

32:42

very, very large losses. It's got to be

32:44

right is the long and short way

32:46

of answering that. Two to three years out,

32:48

what does the space look like?

32:51

I'm obviously biased. No.

32:55

I'm not III obviously have a bias.

32:57

The instant needs world

33:00

is very very complicated. And

33:02

I think all kind of a chip on our shoulder.

33:04

A lot of people say, this business can't be profitable

33:07

too decades ago. Web ban and Cosmo

33:09

couldn't make it. So today, two decades

33:11

later, all these players plus go

33:13

by who started this thing it remains

33:16

to be seen whether this could be an even

33:18

a profitable business. That puts a massive

33:20

chip on our shoulder on the Q and I. First of

33:22

all, because we built a profitable business bravo

33:24

for three years. And second of all, a near hundred

33:26

percent degree of confidence that we're gonna do it again in

33:29

the next eighteen months. We have a massive chip on our

33:31

shoulder. delivering that, proving to

33:33

everyone that this is not just an amazing

33:35

consumer business, not just something that consumers

33:37

really love, but a very profitable business.

33:39

and sustainable business. To answer your question,

33:41

folks that are thinking that way, we'll be here to

33:43

stay on top of all of that. We're gonna continue

33:46

to be the number one global player, but

33:48

anyone else that positions themselves

33:50

to build really strong economics and

33:53

profitability will have a right to compete

33:55

in this space. final one for a quick fire.

33:57

If you wouldn't choose one competitor that

33:59

that you most admire, who would it be

34:01

since day one when we launched Gopher.

34:03

We have a look, almost and odd, Amazon.

34:06

I'm talking about not in the instant need space,

34:08

but from a global e commerce perspective,

34:11

everything that we saw from Amazon

34:13

and Bezos why we hired so many people from Amazon.

34:15

It's because we have an immense amount of respect

34:17

for what they built. Right? Specifically in

34:19

the US, getting into any industry

34:21

they see fit. And then for many

34:23

of the years, dominating in that industry

34:26

was something that we drew a lot of inspiration

34:28

from. not even in our industry. I think it's

34:30

probably the most complicated and

34:33

amazing business in the world. Right? And I think

34:35

what they built from logistical perspective

34:38

and then expanding to new business units.

34:40

Right? Whether it's a BA or AWS.

34:43

is something that we take a lot of inspiration

34:45

from. As we launch our new businesses, right,

34:47

whether it's Gopa Bads or some of the

34:49

new businesses that we have brewing, they're launching in

34:51

next two quarters. So If you were to place a bet

34:53

on new business growth for your new business

34:56

lines, it could be ads, it could be kitchens,

34:58

it could be any of the others. What in the next

35:00

two to three years do you think will be the biggest from where

35:02

it is today. I have one that I can't mention that I

35:04

think will be the biggest because we haven't launched it

35:06

yet. I think that business one day can

35:08

be as large as our retail business or as large as

35:10

Go Bub as it exists today. Right? The Go Bub app. think

35:13

we're talking about existing business units that exist

35:15

today. I think our ads business has done

35:17

tremendously well and

35:19

has grown over the last couple of quarters.

35:21

Personally, the kitchen's business is my favorite

35:24

business. I order our cauliflower pizza every

35:26

day. My wife thinks I'm insane, but

35:28

I enjoy it, and I really do think

35:30

that we built an amazing consumer

35:32

product. What I love about the kitchen's business

35:35

even more is that on the stand alone,

35:37

the kitchen's business doesn't make sense. So we

35:39

just launched kind of go up kitchens

35:41

as a stand alone business without

35:43

core go up. Right? All of our general merchandise,

35:46

alcohol, everything else is a byproduct. You

35:48

just don't have in a basket size

35:50

to deliver a profitable business.

35:52

But goboof kitchens married with the core

35:54

goboof assortment together, it really

35:56

is something special that you're seeing in

35:58

markets where we have go of kitchens

36:01

attachment rates of twenty percent. So

36:03

twenty percent of consolidated orders

36:06

adding a kitchen item in there. So I think

36:08

that business shows a lot of promise

36:10

and a lot of growth in something that consumers

36:12

obviously really love. I'm gonna continue

36:14

to place a really massive bet on that business even

36:16

though is capital intensive. Right? You have to physically

36:19

build and open up kitchens. But the

36:21

ROI on those kitchens is becoming

36:23

better and better as we're we're continuing

36:25

to refine this assortment and the quality.

36:27

And then two, it's very rare that you introduce

36:30

a category that improves retention,

36:32

improves frequency, and improves basket. Alcohol

36:35

was one of those categories. The go up of the

36:37

Kitchen's business is another one of those categories.

36:39

It improves all it moves all three KPIs

36:41

in the right direction. One one invests have

36:44

you disagreed with the board on making? And

36:46

it doesn't mean there's like a board disagreement, but like,

36:48

you know, board members have I think we should focus on

36:50

ads. I think we should focus on kits I think it's your first

36:52

home. As I've been one way you've disagreed. Midpoint

36:56

last year, there was a lot of conversation.

36:58

That's just with our board, but investors on how

37:00

fast we should be moving in Europe. and a

37:02

lot of folks were really pushing us

37:04

to expand to Germany, faster, expand

37:07

to other areas in Europe faster, and

37:09

I'm really glad that we didn't. wasn't

37:11

very much a disaster. More of a conversation than

37:13

anything else. I'm like, how fast should we

37:15

be moving in Europe? And how many countries can

37:17

we open up? Because, like, yeah, it's funnier. Right?

37:20

You do well. and you start producing results.

37:22

The word is, like, you know, just replicating that.

37:24

Right? You could get some pattern recognition. Just keep

37:26

replicating what you've been doing. But it's not

37:29

always that simple. Right? Just kinda

37:31

continue to layer. Again, it doesn't

37:33

match our core cut tonnage of nail

37:35

it and scale it. So I think that's probably

37:38

been the

37:38

only one in the last year

37:40

We've had conversations about how fast we should

37:42

be moving in Europe, how much we're expanding. Obviously,

37:45

today, everyone's looking back and saying, good

37:47

that we did it. Again,

37:48

in hindsight, probably should have been

37:50

had a little a little bit more focus if we

37:52

knew this was gonna happen on the bull market basis.

37:54

Ralph, I could talk to you all day as you know. We

37:56

really should do this with every question

37:59

I ask you have to do a Don Julio

38:01

forty two. In every question I answer,

38:03

I can't do that. Oh, yeah. This will

38:05

be a much more open interview. Your

38:07

team are gonna be going holiday. Oh,

38:10

man. I I think fifteen minutes, and we're gonna

38:12

have a hard time talking to one another. There's I'm gonna

38:14

do a quick fire round, which means your screwed if we

38:16

do it to kill a shot. So I say a short statement,

38:18

you give me your immediate thoughts. What gets harder

38:21

and what gets easier with scale? What

38:23

gets harder managing people

38:25

in culture. You have to be even more transparent

38:28

and you have to spend and have been bigger

38:30

time with your team to make sure that everyone

38:32

has the same vision and understanding where you're

38:34

going through. It's easier. Right? It's a

38:36

different kind of hard work. You and

38:38

I still spend a day in the week inside of

38:40

the MFC every single week. who travel to

38:42

a new MFC and visit it. So I think it's

38:45

a core and important part of who we are,

38:47

but the physical labor gets easier

38:49

to mental labor gets a lot harder. Tell

38:51

me, what do you know now that you wish you'd known at

38:53

the start of Goprof? Hire Mueller faster.

38:55

And Mueller doesn't mean a person

38:57

that comes from pedigree of a background,

39:00

but a person that has deep subject matter

39:02

expertise in a given topic.

39:04

So all the advancements that we

39:06

made on the routing side for his but we hired

39:09

we're out and started to have our expertise seven

39:11

years ago instead of five years ago or four years

39:13

ago, we would probably be even more advanced today.

39:16

So given the state we were in our first three

39:18

years of being bootstrapped, we had to be very,

39:20

very careful on the talent we

39:22

bring onboard because of how much it costs. if

39:24

we hired some of that talent earlier, especially

39:27

on the engineering and product side, we would have

39:29

been even further I mean, like, we're the furthest

39:31

ahead of any incident you'd player by

39:33

a mask of margin, but that margin

39:35

would be even wider. They were able to hire

39:37

even earlier. Peninsula one. Who's your closest

39:40

mentor on what he learned from them? So, you know,

39:42

Karen, I've been really, really fortunate.

39:44

You know, we're cognizant of the fact that we're twenty nine.

39:46

And the way that we've gone into the place

39:49

where we got into is by surrounding our owned by

39:51

the best people. I'm gonna mention someone because you

39:53

spoke to them, which is a meal. Meal Michael

39:55

has been close friend and an adviser

39:58

to Jared and I for five years,

40:00

six years now, and he's probably

40:02

the best dealmaker in the world. I firmly

40:04

believe that. He's been nothing besides being

40:06

an ally and a closer Vyze or in everything.

40:09

He's been an amazing friend. He's been he's

40:11

been really, really awesome. Final one for you,

40:13

my friend. Where is Gopuff in five years

40:15

time? Very simple. In the US,

40:17

we are a dumb disputed leader and

40:19

instead needs, hey, we cover a third of the

40:21

US. Hopefully, that number is much higher

40:23

in five years. and we've broken

40:26

into and becoming the dominant player

40:28

in a lot more categories. Again, I never

40:30

thought that the in authority and the baby

40:32

and pet category. I think I'm gonna be

40:34

saying in five years, a lot more categories

40:37

than ever thought that I'd be an authority in,

40:39

but we're an authority in, on a global scale.

40:41

we're continuing to dominate expansion.

40:44

But I think this time around, we're gonna own

40:46

a market entirely and open

40:48

up other markets that we're gonna own entirely

40:50

before expanding to new markets. don't know how

40:52

many markets that includes, but we're excited

40:54

to see. Graph, I could challenge you all day. Nice

40:56

and third time lucky that comes tequila.

40:58

But thank you so much this has been fantastic.

41:01

Here you're an investment.

41:04

I

41:04

just love doing the twenty VC memo

41:06

episodes. Let me know what you think of the memo

41:08

so it's on Twitter at harrystepings. Likewise,

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43:14

And on Friday, we have the wonderful Michael

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economic thinkers on the show. He

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is fantastic, stay tuned, incredible

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episode to come.

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