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Sounds. Music, radio, podcasts.

1:26

This is Steve Richards with The

1:28

Week in Westminster. Hello

1:30

and welcome to A Week in Westminster, where we'll

1:32

seek to make sense of these election results. A

1:35

lot in and many more to come. Their

1:38

immediate implications, what they tell us

1:40

about the looming general election. And

1:43

we'll also reflect on whether devolution is

1:45

working in all its different forms. Mayors,

1:48

many of them, are declaring these

1:50

days. Police commissioners. And

1:53

that, of course, connects with the other

1:55

big political drama being played out in

1:57

Scotland as it prepares for a new

1:59

election. new SMP, Earth

2:01

Minister. To delve

2:04

deep, I'm joined by the Times

2:06

columnist and director of the London

2:08

Defence Conference, Ian Martin, Sonia

2:10

Soder, Chief Leader Writer of the Observer,

2:13

and George Parker, Political Editor of

2:16

the Financial Times. Thank you all

2:18

very much for coming in. Can

2:21

I give, and we've had so many

2:23

different results, the Blackpool by-election local councils,

2:25

mayors. Just a quick take from each

2:27

of you as to where we are

2:29

at 11 o'clock

2:31

on a Saturday morning. Ian

2:33

Martin. A quick take. A

2:35

broadly terrible set of results for the Prime

2:38

Minister, but with a couple of caveats. Ben

2:40

Houchin's win probably sees off

2:42

a leadership coup, and there are some

2:44

suggestions that while Labour's done very well,

2:47

it maybe has not done quite as well

2:49

as expected. Sonia Soder,

2:52

your quick take. So

2:54

I think it's a very positive set

2:56

of results on balance for Labour, and

2:58

the reason for that is where they

3:01

are outperforming, and they are

3:03

doing particularly well in the sorts of seats

3:05

and areas that they really need to do

3:07

well in in order to win a general

3:09

election. And where they are losing votes, it's

3:12

tending to be in sofa seats. George

3:14

Parker. Yeah, I mean, it was a grim night

3:17

for the Conservatives, pretty much as bad, I think,

3:19

as many Conservative MPs expected it to be. But

3:21

I agree with Ian that she's seen that it's

3:23

got some straws to cling to, the Teeth's Valley

3:25

result with Ben Houchin, and possibly some larger

3:28

straws to cling to later on today, if Andy

3:31

Street holds on in the West Midlands, and

3:33

of course the London result looking particularly interesting

3:35

as well. Labour, great

3:37

set of results. Is it putting on

3:39

course for a landslide? Probably not on

3:41

the basis of last night's results, yesterday's results.

3:44

OK, well, let's explore all of those themes

3:46

first, and then we'll have a look at

3:49

how it's all working out with this mayoral

3:51

system and other elements

3:53

of the sort of somewhat haphazard

3:55

way we devolve power in the

3:57

United Kingdom. Ian Martin, you said...

4:00

There was much speculation, whilst they were

4:02

in the build-up to these elections, that

4:04

Rishi Sunak might face some kind of

4:07

coup. It looks as

4:09

if he won't, and you say

4:11

it's almost certain. You think it's still

4:14

potentially there as

4:16

a possibility? I don't think

4:18

so, unless something changes in the next week or so.

4:20

But if you look in the hours after

4:22

the results started to come in, people

4:25

like Nadine Doris, not an MP anymore,

4:27

but someone who's not sympathetic to Rishi

4:29

Sunak, she was out there saying that changing

4:31

Tory leader would be madness. People

4:34

must remember that the group of plotters is

4:36

actually relatively small, and they're not

4:38

really that close to the 50-odd letters that

4:41

they need to trigger a challenge. I think

4:43

that win by Ben

4:45

Houch and Tease Valley Mayor, that

4:48

was what number 10 were really looking

4:50

for, and that takes the steam out

4:52

of any potential challenge. If

4:54

they had lost that, and then they lose Street,

4:56

and there's this climate

4:58

of disaster, then there

5:01

might have been a few more MPs who

5:03

were persuaded that, look, things can't get

5:05

any worse, it's worth just rolling the dice

5:07

and trying for a new leader. The

5:11

sense talking to Tory MPs in the

5:13

chatter is that that's not going to

5:15

happen. Yeah, it is interesting, isn't it? We'll

5:17

come on to mayors, because people tend to

5:19

vote for the individual rather than the party.

5:22

It seems that was Ben Houch and his pitch, but

5:24

if Ian's right, Rishi Sunak is

5:26

clinging to that to protect him.

5:29

If we've got clarity on this

5:31

issue, that it's Rishi Sunak leading

5:33

the Conservatives into the election.

5:37

What levers are available

5:40

to him to narrow what is

5:42

still a big Labour lead on

5:44

all the extrapolations and the sort

5:46

of debate about what they

5:48

mean in terms of the share of the vote?

5:51

Well, it is interesting as you say that

5:54

his fate was pinned on a couple of

5:56

candidates, Ben Houch in the Tees

5:58

Valley and Andy Street in West Midlands, who

6:00

weren't. really campaigning as conservatives at all. In

6:02

fact, Ben Houchin forgot in inverted

6:04

commas to take his conservative Rosetta along to his

6:07

camp. So that's interesting, but that

6:09

opportunity isn't available to Rishisin, the idea of him

6:11

being able to detach himself from his own party.

6:13

So what does he do? Well, you've

6:15

got a flavour, I think, in the last 10 days or

6:17

so of the way that conservatives intend to fight the campaign,

6:19

which is more of the kind of stuff that we heard

6:22

them talking about before. So it's going

6:24

to be tough on welfare, tough on

6:26

illegal migration, strong on defence. And

6:28

then, of course, what they expect the election

6:30

to be fought on and what they hope will be better

6:32

news for later in the year is that the economy, where

6:35

they're hoping that inflation will fall to

6:37

below 2% the Bank of England target

6:40

next month. They're hoping that

6:42

interest rates will start to fall sometime in the summer,

6:44

but almost certainly in the autumn. And

6:46

there's that autumn statement of mini-budget in

6:48

September, where Jeremy Houchin is expected to

6:51

cut national insurance again, if he can

6:53

afford to, in effect halving the

6:55

rate of national insurance between last November and this

6:57

year. And that will be their down payment on

6:59

a tax cut to come. That will be the agenda. Now,

7:01

whether it actually makes any difference is the

7:03

big question, because you've talked to Tory MPs,

7:06

who've been out on the doorstep in these

7:08

local election campaigns, and they say, frankly, people

7:10

are still listening to us. And that's the

7:12

real problem. It is interesting, isn't it, Sonia,

7:14

that we've had two national insurance cuts. They've

7:17

got the Rwanda legislation through in

7:19

the House of Commons, in Parliament

7:21

as a whole. And

7:24

yet there doesn't

7:27

seem to be much change. If

7:29

you were a strategist in number 10,

7:31

would you continue along that

7:33

so-called, I don't know what you want

7:35

to call it, populist right approach or

7:37

not? And then

7:39

there's reform. It's tough, isn't it? You've got

7:42

reform on one level, the Lib Dems perhaps

7:44

pressing in in the so-called blue wall. I

7:47

mean, politics as a game of chess doesn't come

7:49

tougher, does it? No. I

7:51

mean, I think if I were a strategist in number

7:53

10, Steve, I might quit my job, which is probably

7:55

not the answer that you were looking for. I don't

7:57

think that's what he wanted to hear from a strategist in number 10. I

8:00

think, you know, coming back to what

8:02

George was just saying, I think one

8:05

of the issues is it's quite hard

8:07

to see actually what the Tories can

8:09

do to really shift the dial in

8:11

terms of the polling. And

8:13

you know, the issue with Rwanda

8:16

is I just don't think

8:18

that enough people care about it to make

8:20

a difference in the polls. And

8:22

you know, even if there is this sort

8:24

of an inverted commas success of a plane

8:26

taking off with

8:29

some asylum

8:31

seekers to Rwanda, you know, what

8:34

does that sort of say to people? And

8:36

then when you come onto the economy, I

8:38

think the issue is that even if things

8:41

start to look rosier just before a general

8:43

election, a lot of the pain

8:45

that people have already suffered is baked in.

8:47

So people have already experienced inflation of 9%,

8:49

10%. Those high

8:51

prices have made a difference. They're

8:54

baked into the system now, even

8:56

if interest rates come down. They're coming down

8:58

from a very high base. And

9:00

I do think this is going to be an

9:02

election that is for as much as the Tories

9:04

want to take it away from these issues is

9:06

going to be for on the economy and what's

9:08

happened over the last kind of five to 10

9:11

years, not just what's happened in the two months

9:13

in the run up to the election and on

9:15

public services. And that is quite a grim story,

9:17

I think, for the Conservatives. So if

9:19

that is the case and you're all

9:21

fairly bleak in terms

9:23

of the Sunak perspective, on

9:26

some levels, inevitably, if someone had said

9:29

to Kia Stama a few years ago

9:31

when Boris Johnson won the Hartlepool by-election,

9:33

you would be sitting where you are

9:35

today, spectacular gain in Blackpool in a

9:37

by-election, big swings in councils

9:39

across the country. And

9:42

yet you hear also that

9:44

assessment punctuated with some qualifications.

9:47

Let me, George Parker, ask you about

9:49

one of them, that Gaza has caused

9:52

a big problem with the Muslim vote.

9:54

And we see that in different manifestations.

9:56

The George Galloway win in a by-election.

10:00

The the rumors that perhaps one of the

10:02

reasons why Andy Street will win is that

10:04

the some of the Labour vote will have

10:06

gone to other candidates

10:09

because of this issue Is

10:12

this a problem of some significance

10:14

and weight that one way or

10:16

another kiss Dharma needs to address?

10:19

I think it is significant and you can

10:22

tell that from the very blunt language being

10:24

used by Labour politicians including kiss Dharma acknowledging

10:26

they've got a problem here They

10:28

realize that the trust has broken down between the labor

10:31

party and the Muslim community in some parts of the

10:33

country As you mentioned we'll get

10:35

the results of the Western Midlands mayor or she quite

10:37

soon But the talk is in some of the inner

10:39

city areas of Birmingham with strong

10:42

Muslim population concentrations Independent

10:44

pro-power flying candidate is doing very well

10:47

and You've seen that across

10:49

the country here Labour MPs saying that maybe four or

10:51

five Labour seats could be in danger

10:53

as if the Labour vote Fractions in those

10:55

seats as well. So yes, the

10:57

Labour Party does need to start rebuilding trust with

10:59

that community Sonia so

11:01

do you think the? leaders

11:04

offices are both formidable and Sometimes

11:07

quite insular and do you think this kind of

11:10

preoccupation with we must show every second

11:12

of every day We're not Jeremy Corbyn.

11:14

We've moved on from Jeremy Corbyn in

11:17

this particular case led them to a

11:19

different trap His

11:22

famous interview with LBC during the Labour

11:24

Party conference where he appeared to say

11:26

that Israel had the

11:28

right to block access

11:30

to food and water in Gaza and so on caused

11:34

a problem that they should have Contemplated

11:37

right at the beginning of all of this

11:39

and it's a problem now which won't go

11:42

away Yes,

11:44

I do think it's a problem and I

11:46

do think that that interview that kissed on

11:48

gate LBC was A very

11:50

serious error and I don't think it was

11:52

just that the error was made in the first

11:55

place And you know the Labour Party claimed that

11:57

he you know, he meant something different in

11:59

that interview and it was interpreted

12:01

differently. I think the issue is

12:03

that once all of us watching it sort

12:06

of looked at it in a different way,

12:09

the Labour Party and Kia Sarma were quite

12:11

slow to correct that, it took them a

12:13

matter of days. And I think

12:15

that's left them in a difficult position now because

12:18

I think what you look, what you see

12:21

when you compare what Sarma's

12:23

been talking about and what

12:25

he's been saying on Israel

12:27

Garza with say, for example,

12:29

David Cameron, the Foreign Secretary,

12:32

Cameron actually has appeared more deft and

12:34

more able to shift his position according

12:36

to what's going on on the ground

12:39

and actually deliver some pretty strong messages

12:41

to Israel as an ally of Israel

12:43

in a way that, you know, Sarma

12:45

sort of appeared on the back foot.

12:48

And I do think that some of that

12:50

is the fact that it is, you know,

12:52

very high up in Labour

12:54

strategist's mind that they do need

12:56

to differentiate themselves and that

12:59

Jeremy Corbyn would have handled this

13:01

international conflict and what he said about it

13:03

in a very different way. And

13:05

say that that can lead to other

13:08

traps. Ian Martin, you wanted to comment.

13:10

But look, Labour are winning. And

13:12

as you said, Steve, compare this to

13:15

just a few years ago, we're

13:17

arguing about really whether Labour is on

13:19

course for a comfortable majority

13:21

or a historic landslide of, you

13:23

know, 200 seats. I

13:26

think on this question, where it's going

13:28

to be a problem for Labour, is in government

13:31

if and when it wins. The question then is,

13:34

how large is the group

13:36

of Galloway adjacent MPs? And

13:38

what do they do and how do they vote when

13:40

the Labour government has to take very

13:43

difficult decisions on defence and

13:45

international affairs? Who knows where the war in the

13:47

Middle East will go next? That's,

13:50

I think, the real concern

13:52

for Labour, that they may be vulnerable

13:54

to the appearance of a force which

13:56

is almost a reform of the left.

13:59

So it is... left-wing style Farage

14:02

movement, probably not led

14:04

by George Galloway, maybe led by someone we

14:06

haven't heard of yet, popping up and trying

14:08

to harvest those votes and making life in

14:10

the Commons potentially difficult. Let's

14:13

look briefly at the liberal Democrats. Very

14:16

interesting. There's a lot of talk about the

14:19

echoes with 1997 and the Tory MPs who

14:21

were worried

14:23

about a pincer movement with the Labour gaining

14:25

in some parts of the country, the Lib

14:28

Dems in others. But

14:30

in the build up to 1997, Paddy Ashton, the

14:32

then leader of the Lib Dems, was very clever

14:35

at appearing relevant and significant. There was

14:37

a lot of talk about him, his

14:39

relationship with Blair and all kinds of

14:42

things. They

14:44

are very low profile. I'm told it's

14:46

kind of deliberate, they're targeting Tory seats

14:48

and they're confident of getting them. What's

14:50

your take? We

14:52

are right. I mean, there's no talk at all about Lib

14:54

Library, but the

14:57

electrical geography actually works rather well

14:59

in favour of the Lib Dems and Labour in the

15:01

sense that both things will be fighting almost completely separate

15:03

battles against the Conservatives. I think it's only Sheffield Hallam

15:06

where the Lib Dems and Labour are going head

15:08

to head. And as a consequence, you can see

15:10

without any sort of formal deal, both the Labour

15:12

party and the liberal Democrats concentrating their effort in

15:14

where they can cause the most damage to the

15:16

Conservative party. So there is a sort of informal,

15:18

un-deterralised as there was in the build up to

15:21

1997. Precisely. And if you look back to the 1997

15:23

election, Paddy Ashton was sweeping the West country. And if

15:25

I was in central off, Conservatives central, because I'd

15:28

be looking at those results, being quite worried, there

15:30

was a big result in Dorset council,

15:32

big council down in the south, near Southwest, as

15:34

you call it, where the

15:36

liberal Democrats could control on the

15:38

Conservatives. I think for the first time, the Conservatives lost control

15:41

of that council. And it was

15:43

a big moment. They also won the liberal Democrats in

15:45

place like Tunbridge Wells too. And you

15:47

can see that, though we haven't

15:49

talked much about the liberal Democrats in the context

15:51

of these elections, they've actually looking at the

15:53

latest data, they've won 505 seats against 479 seats for

15:58

the Conservatives. So they won more than the. So it actually

16:00

hasn't been a bad night for the Lib

16:02

Dems, even though nobody's really talking about them.

16:04

It is interesting, Sonia, that I was speaking

16:06

to a shadow cabinet member, one of the

16:09

more experienced ones, who was saying there are

16:11

a lot of wild cards in the build-up

16:13

to this election. You know, we are, as

16:15

Ian said, we're working on the assumption of

16:17

a Labour majority and the debate is whether

16:19

it's going to be a landslide or a

16:21

smaller one. And

16:23

of course, you know, one of them is

16:25

what impact some of the smaller parties will

16:27

have. The Greens picked up

16:29

quite a few votes, didn't they, in

16:32

the elections.

16:34

Do you think there could be a

16:36

reaction to the left

16:39

of the Keir-Stama project of any significance

16:41

at all, or is that a red

16:43

herring? I don't think

16:45

it's a red herring in the sense that

16:48

I think there are particular areas of the

16:50

country where the Greens have done very well,

16:52

particularly in Bristol. So if

16:54

you look at a seat like Fangam Debonheurs,

16:57

you know, they made a significant

16:59

number of gains there. So I

17:01

think Labour really does need to

17:03

keep an eye on that. But

17:05

I think it does, you know,

17:07

it does fit in with a

17:09

trend of being quite concentrated, I

17:11

think, in particular areas rather than

17:13

a widespread phenomena across the country. So

17:16

I think Labour need to worry less

17:18

about the Greens picking up enough of

17:20

the vote share that across a large

17:22

number of seats they may cost, you

17:24

know, they may cost Labour that seat

17:26

against another party, for

17:28

example, the Conservatives. So I

17:31

think, yeah, I mean, I

17:33

don't think it should be dismissed. It's certainly not

17:35

a red herring. It may well start

17:37

to play in, you know, a very

17:39

small number of parliamentary seats in the same way that

17:42

I think, you know, what's going on with with votes

17:44

around Gaza may play in a small number of

17:46

seats. But we are talking quite small number of

17:48

seats. And if you look

17:50

at the national picture, it's very different. And

17:53

Ian, what about reform? There they came,

17:55

millimetre away from the Conservatives in

17:57

the Blackpool by-election. We

18:00

all know Tory MPs and indeed number 10

18:02

are worried about the impact of reform. What

18:05

do you take about where they are

18:07

from the results as we've had them

18:09

so far? The disaster for the

18:12

Tories, they're being squeezed in three ways. We've

18:14

talked about Labour and the Lib Dems and

18:16

how that's working and how those votes are

18:18

being distributed efficiently. But reform

18:20

is also splitting the centre right vote.

18:23

It's an interesting set of results for

18:25

them because they're waiting to find out

18:27

whether Nigel Farage will sweep

18:29

back in and try and reclaim

18:31

the party from Richard Tyson, run it

18:33

during the general election. Actually

18:36

looking at these results, I'm not quite sure they're good

18:38

enough for him to

18:40

want to do that. Does

18:42

he want to give up his very

18:45

large fee from GB news to spend

18:47

the next six months with people following

18:49

him around with threats

18:52

to his safety and all of that

18:54

sort of stuff which he's encountered before

18:56

and he has a very difficult decision

18:58

to make. So I think

19:00

the Tories will be slightly

19:03

optimistic about that. They just haven't quite

19:05

had that breakthrough. I know they

19:07

almost came in second place in Blackpool

19:09

but almost there's not quite enough in

19:11

politics and they were expected to come

19:14

second and actually they fell slightly

19:16

short. Interesting and Farage

19:18

will have to decide pretty soon, won't he? The

19:21

clock is ticking as Richard Tyson says

19:23

and I don't think all is well

19:25

in reform actually. Ah, okay well that's

19:27

interesting. Could we widen the discussion, George

19:30

Parkers? Pre

19:32

1997 there were none of these elected

19:34

mayors and then it began very tentatively

19:37

with London, the election of Ken Livingston

19:39

as an independent. You didn't get Labour's

19:42

backing and what was

19:44

striking yesterday, endless declarations

19:46

of mayoral results, North

19:48

Yorkshire, West, East Midlands,

19:50

all these mayors. Do

19:53

you think as a way of

19:55

handing power away from the centre,

19:58

this mayoral system which is sort of of just

20:00

built somewhat, as I said at

20:02

the beginning, haphazardly, is working. I

20:05

think it is working. I think it's been one

20:07

of the unsung successes of actually Labour

20:09

and Conservative. Yeah, they both done it. Of course it

20:11

was the Labour Government that set up the London mayor,

20:13

obviously, but it was George Osborne for the Conservatives who

20:16

really promoted that regional agenda, set up the Greater Manchester

20:19

experiment, which has been very, very good

20:21

as well. I think it's really interesting

20:23

that these mayors have quickly established themselves

20:25

as big local figures able to defy

20:28

national swings. I mean, Ben Houchin, for

20:30

a Conservative to hold the Ties

20:33

Valley in the face of national polling, like

20:35

British and

20:48

British, but you can see it's actually had a real effect.

20:51

And I think one of the interesting things about it

20:53

is that we often say in Western democracies it's become

20:55

very difficult for incumbents to win, whether

20:57

the Prime Ministers or Presidents. But

20:59

these mayors have shown that if you do enough

21:01

locally and have a high enough local presence, you

21:03

can win and you can win as an incumbent.

21:05

And this is the third term for Ben Houchin

21:07

and Ties Valley, if Andy Street wins today in

21:10

the West Midlands, that will be his third term as

21:12

a Conservative mayor there too. Sonia, it is interesting, isn't

21:14

it, in politics, sometimes it's quite hard for

21:17

voters to make the connection between what's happening

21:19

and where the policy came from in the

21:21

sort of blur of British politics. But with

21:23

these mayors, there does seem to be a

21:26

kind of direct line of accountability, you

21:28

know, London Transport, the mayor, and

21:31

that clearly is applying in other places,

21:33

West Midlands and George was mentioning Ben

21:35

Houchin. It works on that level,

21:37

doesn't it? That people have a clear idea

21:40

of who is responsible and whether they're going

21:42

to deliver and if they deliver, whether they're

21:44

Tory or Labour and whatever is happening at

21:46

Westminster, they've got a chance of getting back

21:48

in. Yeah, I think

21:50

that the incumbency advantage that some of

21:52

the mayors have clearly had shows that

21:55

probably some voters actually quite like it

21:57

and they like having quite a presidential

21:59

party. figure at the local

22:01

level who they can clearly identify

22:03

with successes and failures at the

22:05

local level. I think

22:08

as well as the substantive points around

22:10

devolution and it's showing that

22:12

you know devolution really has worked in some

22:14

areas particularly you know some of the powers

22:17

differ from area to area but when you've

22:19

got a region where actually you've got a

22:21

mayor big region but an a mayor with

22:23

lots of joined-up powers that go across different

22:26

domains like transport and skills for example I

22:28

think it can work really well but I

22:30

think as well as those substantive points it

22:32

can also shift the sort of national political

22:35

conversation and you know we've seen for example

22:38

Andy Burnham in Manchester has been

22:40

a very prominent figure in terms

22:42

of kind of you know criticizing the conservative

22:44

government he's a sort of prominent Labour figure

22:47

who's actually got executive power in a way

22:49

that Labour opposition politicians don't have and I

22:51

think you may see the reverse if they

22:53

were a Labour win at the next election

22:56

as well. Ian

22:58

could I ask you about the Scottish situation

23:00

you wrote about it in the Times this

23:03

week now there is an

23:05

argument that says because I know you're

23:07

going to put a different one so let me put this to you that

23:10

the voting system for the Scottish Parliament

23:13

will mean quite often there are hung

23:15

parliaments in Edinburgh that not one party

23:17

win an overall majority that

23:20

will involve the bigger party negotiating

23:22

with another a deal will be

23:24

formed policies will come up where

23:26

they disagree and it breaks down

23:28

and they have to renegotiate perhaps with

23:30

a different first minister and

23:33

it's nothing unusual but

23:35

you would argue I think and

23:37

a lot of commentators have argued

23:39

that what is happening at the moment

23:41

raises questions about the whole introduction of

23:44

the Scottish Parliament and obviously I

23:46

think you would suggest shows the SNP

23:48

particularly to be at a

23:50

moment of crisis after such dominance. Yeah I mean I

23:52

was going to say that English devolution

23:54

is working really well and there needs to be more

23:56

of it but devolution is not working quite so well

23:59

in Scotland. Is

24:01

it about devolution or is it

24:03

about a particular moment in the

24:05

electoral cycle? Two things are happening.

24:07

Firstly, the SNP has been in

24:09

power for longer than the Conservatives

24:11

have and it's 17 years now

24:13

since Alex Hammond first became first

24:16

minister. That's a very long time,

24:18

too long in politics. Politics, political

24:20

parties then become become

24:22

tired but something else which is partly

24:24

the SNP's fault is happening which is

24:27

that it has Scottish politics has become

24:29

too confrontational in the aftermath of the

24:31

referendum. Actually I agree with you, Steve,

24:34

the way to make the Scottish Parliament

24:36

work and it'll probably end up being

24:38

under a Labour first minister is

24:41

a bit more the spirit of cooperation which

24:43

and I'm not a fan of Scottish devolution

24:45

I wasn't at the time I thought it

24:47

would cause intense problems but it actually is

24:50

going to require the Scottish first minister to

24:52

work in collaboration and cooperation with Westminster

24:54

which kind of started to happen in

24:56

1999 and then the Iraq War happened

24:59

the SNP got in the referendum happened

25:02

so I think a much more practical

25:04

approach. Scotland learn lessons

25:07

from you know from Andy Burnham

25:09

or Andy Street or what's happening

25:11

at Westminster rather than seeing everything

25:13

as the SNP and its Green

25:15

Allies have done as evidence

25:18

of Westminster being this

25:20

terrible place that always wants to do

25:22

down Scotland so maybe I'm being a

25:25

bit too optimistic optimistic I

25:27

think we're moving into a different political

25:29

cycle and I think actually there will

25:31

be a bit more cooperation. It is

25:33

interesting George isn't it that the SNP

25:35

they would admit it themselves have been

25:37

in a degree of

25:39

trauma the the post-Nicolas Sturgeon era

25:41

and now we're having another first

25:43

minister and so on and

25:46

yet polls suggest support for

25:48

independence still remains quite

25:50

high. Does that suggest

25:52

there is still space for the SNP

25:54

in the devolution settlement which

25:57

they themselves don't like? to

26:00

to re-emerge to

26:03

marry that poll rating for independence with support

26:05

for them or do you Endorse

26:08

the idea that they are in a crisis

26:10

and therefore their project for independence is

26:12

also in a crisis Well,

26:14

I think they're in a crisis Partly because

26:16

they're the vision of independence is slightly further

26:19

away than and they would like and the

26:21

glue that held the SMP together the prospect

26:23

of an imminent independence second independence referendum is

26:26

somewhere over the horizon But as you

26:28

say the support for independence is still running

26:30

strong if you talk to labor people like

26:32

Douglas Alexander Longtime watcher

26:34

of Scottish politics. He'll say

26:36

look it's it's actually really intrigued It's

26:38

very difficult to get that back But you

26:40

do get the sense that after the calamity

26:43

after calamity that beset the SMP people

26:45

on the labor side are now starting to sound

26:47

a bit more confident about the prospects of a

26:49

Breakthrough at the general election and then of course

26:51

at the Hollywood elections in 2026 and also if

26:54

you ask if you ask those Voters do they

26:56

want a referendum anytime soon? They might like the

26:58

notion of independence But they don't want a referendum

27:00

next year or maybe not even the next five

27:02

ten years So the union is a lot

27:05

safer than it was a few years ago Oh the

27:07

other thing that the SMP have been struggling with as

27:09

well Is that you know, they've had this sort of

27:11

nationalist sort of rallying cry that has worked

27:14

for it as a party electorally But

27:16

their domestic record when you look at it

27:18

It's actually very very poor for example in

27:21

terms of education and school results and I

27:23

think probably you know Scottish voters who

27:25

support Independence can see

27:27

that too. Okay. Well, we're

27:29

almost out of time and this is just a

27:32

bit of fun But we've given so much clarity

27:34

on everything. We know soon that's going to be

27:36

leading them into the election It will be soon

27:38

at stoma, etc, etc. Done Scotland mayors and everything

27:40

else. When will the

27:42

general election be? Ian

27:45

I gonna go

27:47

for Gonna give her

27:49

late October. Ah not November. Okay, George

27:52

Well, I Think the local election results were neither so

27:54

bad nor so good that we're soon. that's going to

27:56

go before the summer. So I Think it's going to

27:58

be the middle of November. Maybe. Can

28:00

I would never have an upsetting some

28:02

of it moves on a party conferences

28:04

will be held and he will then

28:07

springfield have lots are now sit up

28:09

and his party conference speech for for

28:11

some budget post office becomes a pre

28:13

election rally of the against the polls.

28:15

And then with the American elections big

28:17

held in parallel well we just before

28:20

that preselection. so some tweets trust a

28:22

sites if the that but national actions

28:24

results in some sort of chaos, may

28:26

get six rates. They smoke looking for

28:28

someone to cling to and difficult times.

28:30

Sonia, you're getting. A second or third

28:32

week December so only the closer you

28:34

get to suddenly that blinds the holiday

28:36

rats it becomes psychologically to go early

28:38

and the height that something's gonna come

28:41

along and savior insist the polls even

28:43

slightly and am I think when we

28:45

were we won't go till January til

28:47

the very last possible moment because I

28:49

think and no one wants a campaign

28:51

over Christmas and debaters wouldn't significance as.

28:53

Okay, not the only kid and somber

28:55

like that. Twenty nine see will soon

28:58

knows that's it for today. Thank you

29:00

to my guess George Parker Sonia soda

29:02

and he had Martin Ben Reilly Smith

29:04

from the Telegraph. Will be here next

29:07

week. Thank you for listening. Tune in

29:09

for more results coming in and from

29:11

all of us. But now. It's.

29:13

Goodbye. That

29:16

was me, Steve Richards With a

29:18

week in Westminster. you can download

29:20

this and other political programs. On.

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Bbc Sounds. I'm

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