0:00

hey everybody we've got an amazing show for

0:02

you today friend of the pod alex

0:04

wilhelm is with us from tech crunch in

0:06

his six appearance and we're going to cover tesla's

0:09

unbelievable queue for earnings and

0:11

the ip a window is closing opening

0:14

and then finally since we have alex that we

0:16

break down all of the most hotly

0:18

contested waited ip one of twenty twenty two

0:20

we talk about whether they're going to happen how they're

0:22

going to go what our favorites are and

0:24

what we think is going to be in the dumpster

0:28

and those specifically r

0:30

we can give it away now know who you tell them what

0:32

companies we're gonna we're gonna go here totally

0:34

so we're gonna talk about the ip at the

0:37

potential idea of stripe discord

0:39

reddit impossible insta card

0:41

go pop and time

0:43

no one's gonna win by think's gonna lose who

0:45

thinks it's gonna bail on i feel completely

0:49

any be an amazing show sick

0:51

with us

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twist

1:50

right everybody we have alex wilhelm senior editor

1:52

at techcrunch host of the equity

1:54

podcasts and i would say not even just

1:56

a friend of the pod more like a favor

1:59

of the pie six or appearance

2:01

i'm to as there is only nobody better

2:04

to break down the financials the man is an s

2:06

one wizard and

2:08

the master of ip oh dissection

2:11

so we brought him on to talk about

2:13

obviously we're earnings

2:16

and amazing quarter and amazing gear for

2:18

the company i'm alex beg

2:20

your own rebuttal i didn't know this was my sixth

2:23

time showing up i think it just goes to show that

2:25

i say yes to watch jason whatever he asks

2:27

maybe i should tighten up my money's worth

2:29

it and i wouldn't send i i talked

2:31

to my team but i would like to have the blazers i

2:33

would like to send people a blazer or a

2:36

a what do a quarter zip with like fifth

2:38

appearance you know twist five then

2:40

make it with ten the figure because i

2:42

were going to judge the thing about like saturday alive

2:44

they have the five nine with such as a smoking jacket

2:48

gotta be hilarious a smoking jacket would be funnier

2:51

and i was gonna actually where my usual tank top

2:53

but i figured for you to i would dress

2:55

up and were sweets so this is not my my

2:57

my chest the core we don't get

2:59

the adult label of partner contacted

3:01

them going on showed his shoulders here

3:04

and you and everybody follow alex of course

3:06

on twitter for the first name club alex

3:08

so tesla i guess is the big

3:10

news and amazing company obviously and

3:13

obviously and quarter

3:15

twenty twenty one full year revenue fifty three billion

3:18

every seventy one percent

3:21

your of here that

3:23

is bonkers you for was

3:25

a juggernaut seventeen billion of sixty

3:27

five percent year over year so driven by

3:29

their seventy one percent increase in total deliveries

3:32

model s x production was down ninety percent

3:34

year over year i think that

3:36

is because you're so busy building

3:38

the other cars cause everybody i

3:40

know who's put down deposits

3:43

for their ass and acts plaid

3:45

you know the site with the yo isn't telling me

3:47

they have like six months to a year wait time we

3:50

think the put my guess is that are have inside

3:52

information was gonna do that not scam a lovely

3:54

my a look at the chart i'm in model three

3:56

and why production up seventy nine percents

3:59

yeah you really need a tension to

4:01

their as they moved essentially their production over

4:03

to the model three and they actually start expanding

4:05

automotive gross margins that's insane

4:08

i thought when they moved the cheaper kind of glass

4:11

so i'm you buy a model last you pay a lot of money

4:13

for it you buy a model extra paint a lot a

4:15

lot of money for it generally speaking

4:17

more expensive items have higher gross margins their

4:19

kind of higher quality revenue hi bob

4:22

and tesla moved to more model three the revenue

4:24

quality will go down as their of all you went on

4:26

and on but if you actually take a look at the numbers

4:28

of i recall when i read that as last night

4:31

the automotive gross margins are actually better

4:33

and so bad to me is just a cool to the business

4:35

and just goes to show how well run it's

4:37

very very impressive uncovered live reckless

4:39

how do you do that what is the efficiency

4:42

that you could do to make sure that those margin

4:44

stay the same as that a manufacturing efficiency

4:46

is that of hiring efficiency like how to pull

4:48

that off i think of manufactured and source

4:51

added a lot on and i think tesla

4:53

has shown that with scale they will improve i mean that's

4:55

the concept of operating lovers that disease

4:57

like y'all love to see and businesses that at their

5:00

possible the increases as their revenue scales

5:02

are i just let us go struggle when and with supercars

5:04

but up today and a shocker you

5:07

have ah now that i

5:10

remember getting the factory

5:12

when they were first building some of them and

5:14

it with attention of like what in the car

5:17

would be built by tesla and

5:19

then what would be source and

5:21

i've had many commentators the lot about as he likes

5:23

to build the stop himself he's a bit of a builder

5:25

if if you haven't noticed so you

5:27

look at their monitors you look at their age

5:29

back unit as just one they

5:31

have built their own that

5:33

your age fact would would put the heat and the cooling

5:36

in the car is they are designed them and if you

5:38

watch the guy because they monroe

5:40

who breaks down the cars and rip them apart

5:43

he did the break out that he acts and the why

5:45

he started looking at what

5:47

they're building versus what the source and

5:51

when you build everything yourself that's incredibly

5:53

expensive requires factories and

5:56

you have a couple of years of get a rating on it

5:58

will all of that innovation from alaska the

6:01

view on saying like we can build a better a track

6:03

you know for this we could build better wiring

6:05

harness as we could build a better display all

6:07

of that now has come to fruition yeah

6:10

because it's the same monitor

6:12

are now in all the cars they

6:14

were needed the refresh on the model s in the act the

6:17

cooker landscape monitor that's

6:19

right a portrait moderate they flipped that landscape

6:21

right so years at that's exactly

6:24

what you're seeing here and then of course the big stories

6:26

batteries the fact that

6:28

they make their own battery packs and have the gig a factory

6:31

if they can just make the battery is a couple

6:33

of percentage points cheaper every year

6:36

they can expand the range and then they make

6:38

a more efficient with software the time

6:41

that's gonna be the killer vegan i i

6:43

think the big news here which isn't anywhere

6:45

in any of this reporting is what happens

6:47

when they have the twenty five thousand or car if they can

6:49

show this level the efficiency

6:52

what happens when there's a what

6:54

is the cheapest car you could buy now like i said i'm a

6:56

fat honda fit or a ford focus

6:59

or i dunno this category very well it's probably

7:01

in the honda fit range or anything i mean that he's

7:03

not the twenty five k know it's

7:05

cheaper like a honda fit i'm gonna go

7:07

out of it as eighteen thousand and seventeen

7:09

thousand i have to be in a long

7:11

term relationship with a honda fit fanatic

7:14

sixteen thousand and one other familiar credible

7:17

there's a sixteen thousand dollars dollars

7:19

is none of you modify hold i don't people

7:22

spread succeed as about over a free but

7:24

always like me seriously gigantic on

7:26

the inside this is hundred magic thing is those

7:28

cars are like a tardis they're bigger on the inside

7:30

and they are outside it's the weirdest phenomenon

7:33

anyway were like were slightly i put a little

7:35

bit of like features into

7:37

it i see it quickly goes up to twenty five the real

7:39

question though i want to know is like what is the cost of

7:41

a chevy bolt right because that's where

7:43

like right now you've gotta leave you've got

7:45

the chevy bolt like you do have

7:47

cheaper he be options that have less rains

7:50

and less infrastructure and

7:52

if prices your consideration you're probably still

7:54

gonna make that trade offer the key and nero

7:57

in the really popular one that i think maybe now has an

7:59

all but as a party when i grow any to

8:01

chevy bolt starts at thirty one

8:04

five that's true that's

8:06

it that is supercharged so

8:08

do you know that you're lying them right

8:10

or not popular the i see them everywhere

8:13

really it has was

8:15

i mean so what my liberal ideals

8:18

lot of balls what a major

8:20

to rhode island and i consider going to mass

8:22

market and i see a lot of us laws and i see

8:25

a handful of of holes and most are

8:27

both forever the might be

8:29

twenty one cells the

8:32

que three in the us twenty

8:34

five thousand total for the ball tv

8:36

and the both tv that's not a man

8:39

thousand of them are and of

8:41

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like when i was i was like i need to buy and ebay

10:18

for my how each arrived like as a like i gotta

10:20

like it's part of the story and whatever

10:22

what am i gonna get and i was like i'm

10:24

totally going to get the bolt and then

10:26

i was like wait i need range and infrastructure

10:29

and i that brings me back to tussles earnings

10:31

actually because when you look at another

10:34

area of growth the silence

10:36

like this secret deadly weapon

10:39

the catholic the tesla universe

10:41

is this supercharge or stations up

10:44

thirty six percent year over yeah supercharged

10:46

or can number of that thirty five

10:48

percent year over year the

10:51

number went from

10:52

and queue for twenty two to three

10:54

twenty twenty one twenty nine thousand

10:57

two hundred and eighty one supercharger connectors

11:00

three thousand two hundred fifty four stations up

11:02

to thirty four seventy six on seasons

11:05

and thirty one thousand and four hundred ninety eight connectors

11:07

that right there is why you why

11:10

test like cannot be be right now even if the

11:12

cars are bad it

11:14

did all of that will generate in the

11:16

max free cash flow that it ever has

11:18

ended a that we currently have available to us surfers

11:20

us one last quarter of two point eight billion a

11:23

year ago is one point nine went as far

11:25

as to tutor ninety three million so

11:27

like a this company is this i

11:29

don't have to africa just we swear on the show up for

11:31

the rules yeah okay so

11:34

, as i did on some shows

11:36

that you know he was totally in gold

11:38

all over the place know also

11:40

manage the i'm in sealed out it's

11:43

a supercharger network and drives go back to

11:45

my post earlier it's automotive gross margin some

11:47

twenty four point one percent a year ago to thirty

11:49

four percent this year that's six percent

11:52

or twenty five percent of it's fire total

11:54

as an enormous improvement in revenue quality i

11:58

went to divert income is my next for the company

12:00

not will survive when did it it

12:02

out so much cash shared to fourth alive

12:04

now it would be horrible if they

12:07

gave dividends i would much rather see them

12:09

the invested that when you

12:11

bought a car maybe even not have

12:13

great margins on it increase the

12:15

number of those cars out there like

12:18

shouldn't be doing the supercharger the

12:20

think people don't realize is the going to have a

12:22

subscription revenue business i just turned

12:24

on because i was added charging station on the way

12:26

to tahoe two nights ago and

12:29

i realized oh my free

12:31

high speed connection or that

12:33

was over us or whatever yeah

12:35

so that they have this premium service and

12:37

yeah i get connected to my rise in

12:40

l t but i just want to deal with actors the connectors

12:42

are never great

12:43

there's like twenty bucks a month shorter forty a year

12:46

shore hear it as and i just

12:48

the my app is click ok and know like

12:50

we have your credit card already mr chow down his phone you

12:52

know how about what's your book

12:54

a bulbous that while supercharging

12:56

with my daughter's in the car and they were thrilled right

12:58

as in and now the about that a million

13:01

cars paying twenty bucks a month for connectivity

13:04

then maybe there's going to be a thirty or forty hour

13:06

package where you could have the

13:08

remote viewing of your camera so it becomes

13:10

like a security camera bang like

13:12

a remote dash cam city just

13:14

keep charging up selling people and

13:17

maybe that becomes they have a million people some

13:19

de subscribe the were twenty or

13:21

thirty dollar a month service officer

13:23

stock is still really expensive you

13:26

have to buy into that entire grocery to make the

13:28

the most was work out like tesla is a killer

13:30

is i think now you're ready for the once great company

13:33

the proof it's really the pudding is consistently improve

13:35

it's overall business for business for long now i'm blown

13:37

away when i will say what i like take about

13:40

you begin me like ten came with pick a start i wouldn't

13:42

i wouldn't it does with the that i think the upsides price

13:44

them because people are enthusiastic about the

13:46

somebody and especially about you on and that spot

13:49

why not new sort of about but i mean

13:51

i'm like oh god sochi been and

13:54

i think it's an and and and and right it's like

13:56

yes they are killing it yes they are deep also

13:59

the yes

14:00

right now if you are really looking for a

14:02

a a day to day driver

14:04

right seconds and that picture

14:06

is gonna start to change rapidly right like every

14:09

manufacturer is now legitimately in

14:11

the he be game i have started to drive

14:13

a couple of them just to sort of see what

14:15

the differences between car makers who

14:17

are switching to ease and he be makers who

14:19

are you know i mean the reinventing

14:22

the car not everybody's into want that

14:24

there's gonna be out there i think that competitive

14:26

landscape question gonna

14:28

be really interesting over the next year or two

14:31

as it relates to that sacrifice right

14:34

now price to cells so

14:37

the price of the entire company

14:39

and the sales fifty three billion is

14:41

sixteen point to which is pretty rich and maybe

14:43

five to ten would be what you would you

14:45

know expect and then that based on

14:48

their price to earnings hundred fifty

14:50

six think is right five billion yeah

14:53

it's it's fully i would say fully valued

14:55

would be a kind way of saying it's it's expensive is

14:57

another way of saying it for a the expensive

14:59

as yeah let's say a little game has allergies and i'm

15:01

i guess what gm

15:03

current price to sales race i was honored

15:06

freely gonna look that up and running by

15:08

around or for a trailing i would say oh and for

15:11

even more what he added

15:14

on so mansour those a three it

15:16

er m a point seven my

15:18

dear god right outside so it's probably

15:20

like companies probably saddled with dad

15:22

rebel well what sport little get forward

15:25

which is actually had a super strong like series

15:27

of even or ago and i'm not going

15:29

to become br but the really close

15:31

out of the that new pick up in alaska

15:33

and have to delay was the venue

15:35

the raptor the guy that

15:37

gets worse point six four the

15:40

why i mean basically people are

15:42

looking at the those companies have lots of death

15:45

a lot of them they they lose money on most

15:47

cars they make money on trucks and they make money

15:49

on their finance divisions so what are the things

15:51

that happens with these companies as they get so

15:53

old they way they

15:56

operate them is with this crazy get structure

15:59

and then the finance business

16:01

and i think that's part of the story here is that after

16:03

the much cleaner cap table the

16:06

not have a finance as though they

16:09

right but they have added the finance or they

16:11

will eventually carbon offset the carbon credit

16:13

sales business though don't have a finance

16:16

business i'm sure it got the carbon

16:18

the fairy tales is is declining

16:20

in importance in fact that renderings i've been checking

16:22

for a long time to the regulatory credit income as

16:24

a percentage of over automotive revenue that

16:27

the last quarter of was super months

16:29

like the company i no longer cheating to fill

16:31

up your quote profitable it just is profitable

16:34

the it's a job this wasn't the case

16:36

for years go never miss or shouted at me on twitter like

16:39

ah yuasa do it i'm like maybe but

16:41

not yet and here we are at the yes

16:43

point where can you imagine you are far

16:45

it's just what you like

16:47

those crazy conspiracy theorists who were like that's

16:50

taking the deliveries and these cars

16:52

are not don't exist and were shorting the start

16:54

at one hundred dollars of my lord well

16:57

you don't hear from them because they all random money and couldn't

16:59

pay their comcast bill so she

17:02

what a layup

17:04

how did you kill a person i bet against

17:06

this early on like and we should give frankly

17:09

we should give both credit and honesty

17:12

this there was some weirdness bright like

17:14

be honest and say the test do in every

17:17

goddamn trapping trick in the book to

17:19

stay in business there was ah

17:21

don't understand that in your beer just moments

17:25

and then there a lot to cover up for

17:27

that not cover up in the like criminals

17:29

and right but it was just like just keep running

17:31

just keep running until you get where you want to

17:33

go and a desire to sables that tesla

17:35

has gotten were wants to go and probably will

17:37

only continue to do that and that

17:39

for awhile their leg no

17:43

better how to go will be model

17:45

model three almost to the company that that

17:48

was a distinct moment in time where if

17:50

they didn't have that five thousand production a week

17:52

and the a building the can send stuff

17:54

i bad and just getting those but sars out a

17:56

quality issues that came from that still stick

17:58

out in my mind because folks but those cars

18:01

not an issue but ah

18:03

than most people don't have the guts of

18:05

moves are most oh no i about no

18:07

no no i have a while now that i have quality issues

18:09

with the added that the gap

18:11

panels were an issue and

18:14

then you know wanted a while i get mean if you're going at that speed

18:16

yeah you gonna have some quality issues but

18:18

i think i've got a lot better i sent letters less

18:20

of that the people who do with

18:22

social media if people get a car that's

18:25

not good they're just like every

18:27

day they tweeted everyday you

18:29

know in tell their promise all the new

18:31

you heard a lot of out with the gap analyst yeah

18:34

you know i'm considered tweeting about it but

18:36

it does not seem worth the frankly the transaction

18:38

cost of tweeting about a tesla at this point is

18:40

just too high for me are pleased to know

18:42

your tweets to our molly would if you have asthma

18:44

and and exactly are you keep

18:47

talking to the company about it i dunno no no

18:49

on a on the last one on this one i'm

18:51

i'm just gonna say that i'm not going to buy a tesla i think

18:53

i'm going to buy an extra forty recharge from

18:55

volvo cars it's like the perfect too many

18:58

as you need yeah i know i

19:00

it's a that he actually recharge will say

19:02

i'm going to give up my leave for the bmw the

19:06

oh hell yeah one hundred years

19:08

i mean i'm a bmw girl all

19:10

the way the infrastructure thing

19:12

still is an issue like when it's your only car

19:15

the ability to supercharge nearby

19:17

where every i really cannot be overstated

19:20

so like i'm just waiting for you

19:22

know the results of the infrastructure bill some

19:24

of that he be charging to

19:27

really have no choice but to go to test the new he

19:29

did not wanna get

19:30

yeah when i wish i was like range infrastructure

19:33

going to go on road trips allergy a road trippers

19:35

you like to go to new york you like to go to the cape

19:37

i mean the were like to go to new york know

19:39

because the are full of people and people attitude

19:42

them the about

19:44

our daughter didn't sign for two years that i i don't even

19:46

know what i like to do anymore as i might are providing

19:48

said saddam in hotel right now

19:51

it's over for me i'm risking ever dies

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having to stop to charge

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slow charger like back in the day when you are getting

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you need to charge or four hundred fifty thou

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and it was you know not as many charges

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available it was it became a i'm sorry

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the seven to ten years ago you really

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had to think things through now

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car supercharger network as like

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it there were i

21:55

didn't come on the show tonight actually talked about stock

21:57

market i came on the show recorded long sediment

21:59

convincing myself as do not make us by

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of although actually forty recharged so now thanks to this

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i can get it has a lot thank you guys i'm gonna send her now i didn't

22:05

even have although it's so pretty though so yeah

22:07

i'm looking at it now has actually are usually

22:10

they make them so so ugly like i

22:12

think they seriously made the both in the vault

22:14

and all those cars ugly because they didn't want

22:16

them to be popular just one i throw that i know

22:18

i three will our like a letter sell

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them out we will they knew they couldn't they

22:23

knew they couldn't sell them profitably so

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they didn't make the mainstream they made

22:28

them they knew they were losing money on them

22:30

they had to do it for the what i was at the cafe standards

22:32

or whatever to ya gotta hit the number they needed to

22:34

hit i think they purposely were just like i

22:36

do something wacky who cares now

22:38

you're seeing people who are making them indistinguishable

22:41

from their existing product line or better that

22:44

is a major turning point that means they

22:46

see this as the future much as were

22:48

argument that as do you remember the first prius

22:50

the came out we're going to look like a small pinched bug that

22:53

began in consumer it feel that they managed

22:55

to may get lost the ugly overtime

22:58

the now know about with the automatic

23:00

a nominal price younger man

23:02

was known expensive car that got not you know

23:05

tiller gas mileage and people were like okay

23:07

ah that's ah win a win hour and and if

23:09

i'm being completely honest and now i will get yelled

23:11

at even more it was for people who don't care that much about

23:13

driving like not like car people

23:15

know that drove like a milk carton it was

23:18

not fun to drive the gearshift was a little knob

23:20

on the on the it was in the wrong the

23:22

wrong spot like i mean it was a we

23:24

drive a volvo sedan

23:26

four cylinder manual because super

23:30

she says you're so cool know

23:32

because we're just see ah but

23:34

eventually breath while but also i appreciate the sadistic

23:37

odile on my favorite back in the day

23:39

and i am was considered get us when considered moved to l a i

23:42

wanted getting me they

23:45

get the mini cooper like the second year the mini cooper loved

23:47

that car but i was that the honda insight

23:49

because i saw all these people online on message

23:51

boards the original had the inside

23:54

hybrid from my maybe

23:56

two thousand to two thousand and ten era they

23:58

were getting some of them sixty seventy

24:00

eighty miles to the gal they

24:02

learned how to drive it perfectly are behind

24:04

a big se ve he looked super weird

24:07

they were like having these competitions the

24:11

how much gas they could save and then guess became two

24:13

dollars a gallon again and

24:15

people didn't care anymore about gas mileage illiteracy

24:18

money hypermiling hypermiling

24:21

yeah that sounds good yeah if not it's a great

24:23

term a i think that's what is called when you're trying to get every

24:25

single possible miles per gallon of the car which to

24:27

me just sounds like torture

24:29

the hard cause i'd rather just work more make

24:31

more money and afford fuel

24:33

do you mean i've i do honestly i find a kind

24:35

of annoying that the tussles we'd like am your battery

24:37

life will be way better it does lower and like

24:40

but i don't want your not need to have a slow

24:42

on the sled why why

24:44

would have to go so i should we stop the heart attack

24:46

and move on to ip oh yeah

24:48

wasn't it the charges are

24:50

taught me to a or you wrote a great

24:53

story alex the ip a window or

24:55

is it closing or not

24:57

people forget because we been an ip

24:59

oh friends zealand

25:02

since i guess uber and airbnb

25:04

he went out i think those were the two big ones everybody was

25:06

waiting for and now everybody

25:08

in the found a communities like yeah of course you can go public

25:10

anytime you want realizing

25:12

that we have ip oh windows that are

25:14

shy what may be explained

25:17

to the the unions and the sort of community

25:19

about the concept of ip a windows

25:21

and then what what your premise of this

25:23

piece was critically jason just didn't

25:25

include many young and category which is evidence

25:28

that my hairline receding is accelerating

25:30

as i age into my thirties i mean you are talking

25:32

about by animal though so i

25:34

yeah i , i asked

25:36

getting of of our our

25:39

i'd ask i'd is

25:41

this is middle aged it's been great so far

25:44

as far as an idea fine

25:46

here are some of the water script

25:48

odd milk and idea window jesus question

25:50

is a period of time the which can take can company

25:53

public and there are exceptions to

25:55

this people will say that you could always say that

25:57

company public and us emotional

25:59

care about we

26:00

there's a time period in which many companies

26:02

can take the company public at a reasonable

26:04

price and knock of absolutely hammered by public

26:06

investors and essentially it's a moment which

26:08

you can translate a business when the private to the public

26:10

markets with minimal intrigue and both

26:13

and view come and go for a somebody conditions

26:15

usually when a market is more risk on

26:17

the i feel window is open and the martyrs

26:20

more risk off the up your windows closed

26:22

so if the values offer stocks is

26:24

at an all time high the idea windows open last

26:26

november today's offer such takes

26:29

a huge died now the idea window

26:31

closes and so we have noticed through

26:33

the just for savio and the we transfer

26:35

of your both been delayed could have put off

26:38

that the moment for taking companies topic was

26:40

actually last year and are wrapped up

26:42

around christmas time wow

26:44

that's very definitive okay

26:47

though when you say wrapped up what

26:50

does that mean like let spin that out a little bit

26:52

your

26:53

haha company or maybe a medium hot

26:55

company or we were considering a

26:57

sbac merger

26:59

what is this like you know lay out the ripples

27:01

in the pond here for years so i was back

27:03

deals been called off because

27:06

essentially companies were an obvious fact deal

27:08

you know back in june twenty twenty

27:10

one getting a lot of hype and by the

27:12

time to deal came together or no one

27:15

wanted the combined entity lot of redemptions

27:17

on the car so we're gonna go into the new business and the to

27:19

begin to trade and they drop like a rock very

27:21

few spot combinations of tech companies have performed

27:23

well and frankly it's been pretty

27:25

embarrassing for lot of folks who were protein these

27:28

in the media and investing fairly easy as

27:30

curb dicey hundred years know i

27:32

feel side the you're

27:34

a medium a hot unicorn service or

27:36

your was one of the half billion dollars he done pretty

27:39

well you probably got a lot of built

27:42

in hype enterprise investors who expected you

27:44

to keep doing well with your own set of medium

27:46

hot you may struggle they match dot same

27:48

price we do go public is the ip a

27:50

window is wide open currently

27:53

biggest companies don't want to see the virus and declined

27:55

an idea which is messy for a bunch of reasons

27:58

there's going to hold off a not go public the

28:01

at some point we're gonna

28:03

have to get some is unicorns out was nearly

28:05

a thousand now in the private markets and

28:07

with the cause i feel and of it's own going to keep going up

28:10

and i'm really worried about does that

28:12

unicorn indigestion of pick a whorehouse

28:15

metaphor there

28:16

it is exactly accurate if

28:19

, look at what happened to

28:22

just to give you like from the insider view the

28:25

it is the case that

28:28

you'll have you'll have company somebody

28:30

really wants own shares in it's there's competition

28:33

oh you know you have a bunch of competitors

28:36

who want to make that last let's go at

28:38

the yuri milner

28:39

the kleiner perkins the

28:41

softbank final that before pablo

28:44

in other words a large amount of money that

28:46

you're pretty sure it's going to double or go

28:48

a fifty percent in the next two years like

28:50

or yuri milner famously did by overpaying for

28:52

facebook and twitter finer overpaid for

28:54

twitter is kind of like a classic late

28:56

stage now

28:59

a bunch of people get in on that and you got other people

29:01

when you've got ten people doing the same thing prices

29:03

go up so now maybe you're going to get

29:05

twenty percent

29:07

the overpaid could accompany the ip or windows

29:09

not great the fundamentals of the business or knock

29:11

raids you go out by us back it

29:14

doesn't perform

29:15

the now what was a four billion

29:17

dollar company the private market shoots up to

29:19

ten billion in the public the crashing

29:21

down to two then

29:24

you look at that as an added that get a

29:26

better like myself and decide what did we

29:28

take this out why did we just quietly

29:30

belt without the distraction the

29:32

would have much rather certain companies that

29:35

when our bodies ideas didn't i

29:37

don't need a liquidity and

29:39

you know desktop metals private example we had a small

29:42

that on a company it went way

29:44

up way down if you look at their stock

29:46

price i would have been totally fine with i'm not

29:48

going problem the the public markets

29:50

don't understand how to be patient the

29:52

people buying back the day

29:54

traders

29:56

that you're only your inventory

29:58

their companies that are morning so you

30:00

have ever venture a private market investor mindset

30:04

or at least a public market mindset the

30:07

long term angle what did

30:09

we get we got a crater saw that the worst

30:11

possible situation who should

30:13

not be trading assault that trying

30:15

to figure out how to scale their revenue that

30:18

what their exact product market said as which i said

30:20

over and over again

30:21

you really as a private public market

30:23

investor want to be investing in nicola maybe

30:26

an it out whatever

30:28

company virgin galactic do

30:30

you actually have the appetite the

30:33

wait five or ten years and then

30:35

look at the stock price you die that's

30:37

the challenge

30:40

is your entity investors e

30:42

to not special from as vehicle

30:45

with and investment vehicle thousand

30:47

to hundred fifty investors to invest

30:49

ten million dollars in one entity

30:52

on founder or start can angel

30:54

and you could start your one syndicate

30:57

and you can power it with and as e the

30:59

as the magic of it and hundred watch loves

31:02

working with the ten as shore special

31:04

as as you or e power

31:07

nine syndicate syndicate the can which is

31:09

largest angel syndicate the world with

31:11

well over nine thousand members and

31:14

with had thousands of them to india with

31:16

as shore is the lean provider

31:18

of as e vehicle and founder administration

31:20

with over to five five million

31:23

of a you a as under administration

31:26

and over five thousand complete transactions

31:28

syndicate the of not over five thousand

31:31

the on the developed and invest of software

31:33

power from can glass for the or them e the

31:35

entire investment experience from the entity

31:37

formation or the only

31:40

to and ipos and nine ten

31:42

loves glass for the loves working with the shore

31:44

not only to investors loves founders

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31:49

not as lean power transactions entity the

31:52

the only magic the entire process over the entire

31:54

life of the investment for you software of your

31:56

start take five six seven take nine ten your

31:59

to because they're going to be with you that

32:01

whole time in a the with me for years

32:03

my whole career sacks as an investor so to

32:05

get twenty percent off your first special purpose vehicle

32:08

is it a sure dot co slashed with a

32:10

as as you are he dot c o

32:12

slashed with that's a sure dacosta interesting

32:14

a twenty percent off your first stv

32:17

and tell them your uncle jason center then

32:20

why was

32:20

that you push i mean like he ate

32:23

you're saying you don't need a liquidity you may not

32:26

may be other people in different positions but also

32:28

it does feel like nevertheless

32:31

there was a big push to put our i pad back

32:33

i have my own not only going

32:35

to happen what i i know the answer

32:37

but i want to hear you to guess

32:40

a amalia you ask the questions do you think you should

32:42

answer first well that's where do you

32:44

ain't got nobody to all ,

32:46

i'll i'll put my money right it was

32:48

right it market there's a ton of money in the market why

32:50

wouldn't you because there's a lot

32:52

of like

32:53

the raiders and retail investors and in

32:55

all people making bad decisions so like when

32:57

there's blood in the streets by property

33:00

the corollary of that is like if somebody throw

33:02

in money out the window

33:04

though toward the window your bag

33:06

and collected on i think of how to what happened we

33:08

saw the value for software revenues

33:10

and particular scale dramatically

33:13

in the back half of twenty twenty as

33:15

the market realize that everyone wasn't

33:17

gonna stop on software and so startled

33:19

and other tech companies when a great position to since

33:21

we grow well they

33:24

are on course when don't present in office anymore

33:26

you to hire wherever you want until these companies

33:28

really became only a safe bet because

33:31

of the world consumer cyclical i'm going to fall style

33:34

the people's kept putting money

33:36

into them in a sort of look more valuable at a public

33:38

some super valuable so why wouldn't you take

33:40

your company out then it was essentially a free

33:43

pass to getting a great ip

33:45

uprising and therefore an enormous fund raise

33:47

a lotta hi i mean going public isn't

33:50

just the bad stuff adjacent talking about

33:52

the other day traders in the haters and so

33:54

forth i mean europe tesla public

33:56

and that worked out great as a fundraiser mechanism

33:58

for the company is enormously the

34:00

out your tummy time in money

34:03

liquidity many things came together or

34:05

is just now kind of behind us as

34:07

he will you yeah you guys got a perfectly we

34:10

if you remember just two years he called

34:13

dave portnoy was trading stocks and

34:15

his rallying cry was stocks go aren't

34:18

i only go up and if

34:21

you would literally or in a world

34:23

where everything sparks go out

34:26

then why wouldn't you go public because stocks go

34:28

up

34:28

we care about know to the realization

34:31

that they could actually go down and what would it be like

34:33

to be trading at

34:34

if years back was at ten both what

34:36

would your stomach be like at play what

34:39

would you know if robin hood

34:41

was trading in the private market a third our

34:43

to share before republican our training at twelve

34:45

how can people stomach that you know

34:47

like i'm sitting here i could have sold by robin who chairs

34:50

and the public the private market for probably

34:52

twenty to thirty dollars i'm sitting here disrupt

34:54

our sought i disturb them to my appease

34:56

and i tell him with and i'm holding

34:58

i'm in a been a long time but you have

35:00

to make your own decisions diameter for the locks himself

35:03

this is like very complicated stuff and

35:06

, just got a little greedy you know we're

35:09

going to throw those how quickly this happened so in december

35:11

we saw reddit and via both file

35:13

privately just works was going to going

35:16

out

35:16

they pulled his ip only for nothing sense

35:18

for anyone else so this when from kind

35:20

of hero to zero pretty quickly and

35:22

efficiently was one forty five days

35:25

of software sox setting value on

35:27

public markets that ended this and so that means

35:29

the liquidity cycle for twenty twenty two i

35:31

keep forgetting what your does amazingly not as

35:34

ah this year's looks

35:36

kind of crappy and i'm worried about he

35:38

sees who do need to liquidity jason who's funds

35:40

are closing and who's lps are

35:42

tired of paper returns and one some paper

35:45

is you

35:46

the eiger new at this is a to a nice

35:48

place cities ahead to sunday to bc

35:50

sunday school where we're gonna talk a little bit about what

35:52

this does mean for this industry but

35:55

we want to run through because there is

35:57

a nice little list here that are producers have

35:59

combined the most anticipated i pin

36:01

number twenty twenty two the know to his are already

36:04

asking what does this mean for some of these ideas

36:06

and so let's run through this with alex

36:09

let's start with strike what do you think i'm

36:12

highly anticipated yeah i

36:14

mean got such copyright strike is

36:17

you don't to be she's about stripe who don't

36:19

have money than it they talk

36:21

about it like the one that got away

36:23

back in college like they are wistful

36:26

are disgusted with company so to me

36:28

everyone knows that it's hot everyone knows that it's use evernote

36:31

as doing well i just

36:33

want to know that actually true and so does

36:35

ip oh finally is the one that's gonna really

36:37

i think the obfuscate the business

36:40

and site has been very aggressive in

36:42

certain ways to control it's

36:44

market positioning do with that in

36:46

a mafia well

36:47

the time i might harm

36:50

, your okay the three

36:52

of the mafia i'm

36:54

thinking about cynics and sequoia

36:56

and that particular saga in which they kind of bullied

36:59

one of the most legendary busters in the history of technology

37:01

into giving up twenty one million dollars

37:04

oh move on strike but now i want to see

37:06

the proof and i johnson in the

37:09

wings for so long just animal a the like it's

37:11

about time it was use how many they have been

37:13

it's sort of at all it's time a unicorn it's just

37:15

a huge business

37:17

than just a look at it if they're at seven point

37:19

four billion and twenty twenty that was the number

37:22

in the wall street journal let's

37:24

say they either went up forty percent

37:26

year over year be high growth company but who knows

37:28

maybe we saw you know other companies have grown faster

37:30

you know any head and billion

37:33

to get to the two hundred and thirty

37:35

one billion dollar market cap record of alibaba

37:38

that have to be at twenty four times

37:40

the evaluation you know sales to the valuation

37:43

which is pretty rich as we think boil

37:46

it down and read support a payments

37:48

company last year actually yeah on

37:50

i think it's much harder this year a question

37:52

about this going back to my favorite topics on

37:54

board is gross margins and how high quality

37:57

this revenue as because southern point four

37:59

billion ads for percent it

38:01

is not nearly as good as seven point four died at

38:03

seventy five percent and no one's given

38:05

me hard numbers on their revenue

38:07

quality so i'm curious armed

38:10

and it's not a t business run they've hired

38:13

why don't more people that can get their hands on which

38:15

is expensive so so let's let's pull

38:17

a number at a great thirty percent margin

38:19

they're making ten billion they got three billion dollars

38:22

in earnings rebellion dollars in earnings times

38:24

fifty price earning would be on my mood

38:27

thirty percent was necessary to see this margin

38:29

to be three billion gross profit after but

38:31

you are operating costs are like sure if

38:33

it's sort of isn't that the there

38:35

right okay so let's what what would you guess

38:38

they're turning off to when it comes

38:40

to beating ali baba of the water they're

38:42

fine on tech got

38:44

it i want to loose with the as like thirty percent

38:46

margin doesn't sound to me like i'm

38:48

new here but right well

38:51

if you want to see for ourselves ratio

38:53

does yet essay on that i mean tsunami

38:55

nice assume know that at this point being that record

38:57

is like it's not the year for it like sorry

39:00

i can't then turn around

39:03

the reason i mean think about march twenty one i have

39:05

ever the everyone is or what decided most to and twenty

39:07

that the started with our our economy's

39:10

done that your capitals are set up shop for fall under

39:12

that last three , he

39:14

added by various times different

39:17

times think that i'm is a fundamental repricing

39:19

of assets that got outta control and

39:21

i think it's like a crash for some people

39:24

correction for others and then neutral

39:27

for you know people which strong

39:29

predictable run

39:31

you know or index funds like

39:33

i am sorry i'm just gonna keep on

39:35

buy into the the downturn here i

39:38

mean a funds are going to be least impacted

39:40

and you can just keep you know it's it's not about

39:43

timing the market in that case it's about time

39:45

in market i'd

39:47

put their value are going to take about a thousand a sad

39:49

and over under hundred thirty five billion

39:52

after one week of training so i'll take out a little

39:54

spike in us so on the five

39:58

days you know what other day to go public the

40:00

next week you know that day hundred

40:03

thirty five billion dollar market cap at the close

40:05

of business on the six they're fighting what

40:08

do you got over or under oh

40:11

the family

40:15

like you their mean i get that bothers me

40:17

thinking about what our to saying which is like what's

40:19

it gonna look like when we really get a look behind

40:21

the curtain but yet like the look of the

40:23

scuttlebutt around

40:25

the values that they just print money so i gotta go

40:27

over i don't think i get an idea we

40:29

look at it is a reason i should have set the line at

40:31

one hundred seventy and you guys would have had to wear

40:33

all our dependence on fire that

40:35

would have been yes i might have taken the under i had

40:38

a bad lighting on that of them

40:40

i just thought if they're making ten thirteen

40:42

point five times by cells ratio after

40:45

a week and it's a choppy market who

40:48

does they should be verified discords the next

40:50

one then you also have read it in this

40:52

but discordant reddit or really enigmas

40:55

a as well try to try to understand

40:57

we did see microsoft wanted to buy discord

41:00

for like ten billion was the rumor maybe fifteen

41:02

billion who knows and their last private

41:04

mark evaluation was fifteen billion in september

41:06

twenty twenty one revenue

41:09

and twenty twenty one hundred thirty million

41:11

said tiny revenue but our

41:13

water users so finally to facebook

41:15

story in the early days and twitter story nearly

41:17

days if i post or the road

41:19

as low the high

41:22

users low rapid what's your take on

41:24

this company alex

41:26

i'm pretty bullish were on distort in general

41:28

i don't know exactly how i would start

41:30

of it's current valuation to it's current revenue

41:33

but i will say other as a regular

41:35

discords user i'm amazed

41:37

they haven't taken money for me and

41:40

frankly i presume they will then

41:42

i became a lot of folks out there like me who

41:45

likes to play video games have friends

41:47

bringing together and that demographic

41:49

has money for buying stuff and so to me i

41:51

can't believe they haven't said alex come on come on

41:53

suboxone months for high quality audio come on

41:56

and i'll i'll just a justice as an

41:58

hour's on to score is amazing

42:00

the court has really become the messaging platform

42:02

of choice for a lot

42:04

of young people a lot of jerseys who

42:07

are not necessarily even using it for games like

42:09

maybe they got introduced the games

42:11

but now they're using it's talk about homework i mean that

42:13

is really happening as a youth they have built a

42:15

pipeline in over the same reason that

42:17

like apple used to be in schools

42:19

and google and microsoft now are they've built

42:21

this pipeline of future paying customers

42:23

that is super loyal and has an entire

42:26

friend basin community existing

42:28

they're like i do think that there's the

42:30

have a lot of value and growth potential as a product

42:33

i just wonder if it is in the category

42:35

of of what did i got a medium hot unicorn

42:37

like in terms of or it would it discord

42:40

risk and i p o this year

42:43

in a massively under

42:46

monetized so lots

42:48

of users now lotta revenue if

42:50

you get one hundred and fifty million the

42:53

monthly active users but you're only making hundred

42:56

fifty million dollars a year exactly what's

42:58

going on here like ten

43:00

for the wedding what's got a very concerned

43:02

for his apartment is insane for the mountain club

43:04

was funnier it of eight posts making

43:06

you know in the us what seventy five dollars

43:08

a year per user on him in his eye on

43:10

monetize yeah says that means lot

43:12

of the team in

43:14

think of a a business model m a lot of people

43:16

are using as or go to for like group chats like

43:19

you know i suppose to signal or

43:21

facebook messenger or whatever so i

43:24

wonder if it's more like twitter and that they'll never

43:26

be able to figure out the monitors asian or more likely

43:28

spoken twitter is doing well fine

43:30

twitter is doing to me nine hundred a

43:32

month now i'm a twitter or at

43:35

three dollar blow i don't necessarily

43:37

like

43:38

i don't want to encourage this because discord

43:41

have a lot of data and it would just be like and

43:43

it would could get ugly and a hurry but like

43:45

score does not have ads we

43:47

have a to sell it on earth i

43:50

mean discord clear literally turn on

43:52

ads tomorrow so hi

43:55

to kill yeah yeah imagine

43:57

like the next netflix or disney movie or

43:59

book a bow before advertising on discord

44:01

i mean it would kill it or like your new computer

44:05

that our peripherals apple ads with your

44:07

as a second us into this i'm sorry what

44:09

what the hell is book of bobo set

44:11

just struggling look at a

44:14

the fat was like a we

44:16

will ya will ya far how basically we're over

44:19

and over sized had like three lines

44:21

and the whole original trilogy

44:23

but then became a nerd geek

44:25

out you know i need my

44:28

of can ban they decided to do massive fan service

44:30

and build out the concept of the mantle

44:32

orients which is the armor he wears and

44:35

the without his character or that

44:37

it a new series after the mandatory yeah

44:40

bro is now building the world of bobo

44:42

sad post being a bounty hunter edits

44:45

awesome is going anywhere in other

44:47

words and sorry an hour and a very

44:49

real timing eloise a religion

44:51

based on weapons and armor the

44:54

fat is a the fat is a bounty

44:57

hunter who had acquired mandatory

44:59

and armor okay you know the like

45:02

an enigma and yeah so there were

45:04

there world building i'm

45:06

literally based on this like throw a character

45:08

who with no got built out in the clone wars

45:11

fan now it's like

45:12

we go from car talked to star wars nerdy relay

45:15

i just want to join those worlds of science

45:17

fiction out there that isn't trash they're trying to recycle

45:20

to make money from disney so if you want to reads

45:22

mean better just hit me up for the book rex

45:24

absolutely what what's your best what's your best

45:26

life i book of the last five years ah

45:29

most a memory told empire oh

45:32

my god it's what i can say you stinker

45:35

my memory or a decoy me and twenty

45:37

, hundred and we are this and the desolation

45:40

causes yeah those are fantastic or the salvation

45:42

sequences tremendous on paid a lot they

45:44

don't don't incognito

45:47

turn this all by

45:49

an author named are paddy

45:51

martini are paddy

45:55

you know really these are these books are you

45:57

to for their like donating

46:00

you put your money doing star wars

46:02

lot of the rings when a when they sit in there

46:04

is more international star wars for sure i

46:06

didn't assholes a lot of discussion

46:09

of culture and are in

46:11

are seizure context and also word the definition

46:13

of civilization as it will evolve into the space

46:16

age you have a

46:18

you have an empire that is colonizing planets

46:20

and absorbing that much as a turnip a classic

46:23

you know classic being anti by and

46:25

but the these stories are told

46:27

from the percent the of essentially an m

46:30

grant into that empire

46:32

who's like in love with the empire

46:34

and the halter that they've built but also trying

46:36

to maintain her own i mean it is they

46:38

are just so good

46:41

yeah i go wow i'm amiri

46:43

i am a winner recommended same when i'm so excited

46:46

i feel like nobody else knew about this book feel like

46:48

we gotta feels like we got it this way concerns book club

46:50

ah and and then we get the author on to are

46:52

so we did discord we did let's

46:56

to read it because this is crazy reddit

46:59

eyeglass pacing capital a barrier smile

47:02

i mean it was bought by content ask for

47:04

like a case of like peanut butter

47:06

and superpower like

47:09

as a couple of old vhs tapes of the

47:11

hobbit animated the movie

47:14

and then may spun it out and bet it became

47:16

a juggernaut revenues over three hundred and fifty

47:18

million from advertising according to the information

47:20

in twenty twenty one what a more

47:22

to sites in the world for just thirty monthly active

47:24

users again massively

47:27

under monetize that that right ga

47:30

thirty million monthly active users

47:32

are again according to the information though

47:35

the price to south of fifteen billion

47:37

would be something like forty two acts and it's

47:39

business models ads which

47:41

adds is a tough business model i simply

47:43

don't have like have a better subscription revenue

47:45

but what do you think broad strokes

47:48

about reading

47:50

yeah i'm bullish on this one i just looked

47:52

at my rent a recount i've been on since june

47:54

of two thousand and eight and actually

47:57

i was a user before we didn't sign outside been

47:59

on reddit really since

48:01

it was like the lesser dig if

48:03

you go back in time foreigners were

48:05

absolutely and what's amazing to me about

48:07

reddit is how much i still for

48:09

it in lhasa now

48:11

the be clear that's because i found communities

48:13

that i'm a part of like bears and it does a progressive

48:15

metal community on reddit is

48:18

fantastic fares are stopped drinking

48:20

community that been on for years and

48:22

so to me as it has managed to find

48:24

a way to scale micro communities in

48:26

a way that is inherently sticky and

48:28

they have been tinkering with different ways to make money

48:30

off advertisements are better gold

48:33

i give them but even up first launch

48:36

none of the other little coins you can give up their going to

48:38

figure it out i i just found

48:40

a way to keep us and i've not chinese their best

48:42

for us over between a the sober

48:44

metal heads is there any opportunity

48:46

there with those to the diagram

48:49

uber or go to a metal show a drink

48:52

it's the latter days straight edge remember

48:54

that more you're

48:56

telling me i i only only got a metal

48:58

shoulders actually see more than four feet

49:00

but i will say that it's it's okay so i remember

49:03

shows now and i boss i saw slayers

49:05

the blur

49:06

well you are you down with the reddit or

49:09

are you know is it i have to like topic

49:12

again red is the only news source i trust these days

49:14

you love it alondra oh i like

49:17

i sincerely love read it read it that

49:19

reddit has figured out so much of this

49:21

like be as that's happening everywhere else

49:23

this whole conversation about like moderation

49:25

said look like and yes read it did step in

49:27

and introduce more moderation than and had

49:30

but what it has his communities who moderate

49:32

each other and i think that that is

49:34

added some asthma nominal and that's why

49:37

reddit and wikipedia are literally my

49:39

go to yes or their heirs sir or

49:41

their mistakes absolutely as their veracity

49:43

that can like up make things go awry

49:46

absolutely but for the most

49:48

part the community moderation on both

49:50

of those sites makes them to me fundamentally

49:52

trustworthy yeah i know seem to agree

49:54

alex reddit is like public

49:57

discord and just towards like private reddit that

49:59

you know the dummy orleans i could say that again

50:02

reddit is like public discord and discord

50:04

like private read sorry but

50:06

they dietary and son will scale community

50:09

in two different ways but doctor

50:12

content is king and the stones partially

50:14

true but i think community

50:16

is seen as much more trendy thing to say and

50:18

if you one thing about who's actually built communities

50:20

as scale and maintain them well as

50:23

those those puppies are there and left a great

50:25

on itself allow exaggerate money

50:27

i don't need it he has been the ongoing question of

50:29

the internet right like and

50:31

unfortunately the only one is figures out his face

50:34

so far so i think

50:36

there is an open i think i am less

50:38

bullish on discord and read it as long term

50:41

business plays i think like the court

50:43

like surprised that about it reddit

50:45

i don't know what happens if it goes public because

50:47

it is hard too because it's one there's

50:49

there's the perception of toxicity those

50:52

right fad stuff exists like in

50:54

humanity faces you're gonna control of

50:56

that the right like they got rid of some of the more

50:58

extreme groups when ellen pao was there are

51:00

closer but like perception drives

51:03

markets and so the question is

51:05

like do everyday investors want

51:07

to be in this do pension funds wannabe

51:09

and best said and reddit with reddit

51:11

ip owes and i think that sil

51:14

probably probably a now the

51:16

my thing what read it represents

51:19

is all of those people who buy stocks

51:21

who believe in it are now going to get to vote with their

51:23

dollars to buy one the can shares

51:26

of read it they put that on their profile

51:29

and then say there a reddit shareholder

51:31

neither four hundred thirty million users there

51:33

it could become the most diverse share

51:35

base of any company and adding tessa

51:38

an apple are probably

51:39

in that group of you don't they just have a lot

51:41

of fan boys and girls fans

51:44

of their products can you imagine if ten

51:46

percent of reddit users or five percent decided

51:49

we should on the stock to support the company i

51:51

mean it could become like an m c type situation

51:53

for that reason the first three companies

51:55

i think it's got more upside not

51:57

because the fundamental they are recorded crazy

52:00

fan base maybe reddit said i see

52:02

out like i

52:04

see else the coin operated know it would be worth

52:07

ten trillion would literally be that

52:09

number three traded crypto currencies just let

52:11

me think about what if wikipedia went public what would it

52:13

be worth i didn't make it how can

52:15

i and our company may big a token bro know

52:18

so don't don't listen demolish my

52:20

cellphone dollars would not only a drone every

52:22

big don't worry guys years back my

52:25

i can't i get thousand get thousand

52:27

sovereign one i still a true unicorn

52:30

the oldest to the right thing

52:32

to do i remember the out just like just like

52:34

to look at the fundamentals i like to know the numbers his show

52:36

me be speaking at the earnings the quality of the revenue

52:39

and then they're like hey i'm the major

52:41

crush your crunch basis like alice can you tell

52:43

us to the same thing for this and he said

52:46

the white paper with seven spelling

52:48

errors for page and there's

52:50

no product there's no employees

52:52

you can't do any fundamental analysis

52:55

on poorly written novella

52:58

the are you getting a lot of sunni know alex

53:00

is there was brutal i will say though the

53:02

i see a boom was hilarious they're

53:05

like uber entertaining hubert or title doesn't

53:07

flow thought no bs know hedging did

53:09

you put any of your own money and i see as

53:12

into two dozen seventeen i see above zero point

53:14

zero dollars or go zero point

53:16

zero dollars i know a scam when i see then

53:18

i just said you know

53:20

show me every time i met with

53:22

at least twenty five for investment

53:24

because of and right listen if this is getting this popular

53:26

i have a bathtub do my diligence here

53:29

okay can you show me the product and know like yeah yeah no

53:31

his or my papers agree that the white paper with monica

53:33

i guess i never going to raise a hundred you know

53:35

ted's as honorary the hundred million

53:38

a damn about the project had them on the podcast was like this

53:40

crazy we're giving everybody

53:42

the ip overboard the

53:44

riding a poor version of a potential prospectus

53:47

that was the same more than a it just clicked

53:49

the my head immediately outside i

53:52

saw this during the dotcom era there was company

53:54

there were company there was one company that

53:56

went public that a plan

53:59

to build twenty company i

54:01

forgot the name of it will come to depend on there were companies

54:03

like a capital group

54:05

or something like that and vertical that and they became

54:07

worth all this money cause they were going to build a website

54:09

in every category people

54:12

did like okay with that makes sense so it's going to be

54:14

like one hundred ip i was in one here's one

54:16

hundred million dollars and when you give people

54:18

the reward before they do the work that

54:20

could have whether it had n b

54:23

a player who get some huge contract i

54:25

get a guy on williams said his like

54:27

you know getting huge contract a

54:30

and you know endorsement deals

54:32

he hasn't done anything in the and be i yeah that's a

54:34

really bad thing because than the person gets

54:36

that that doesn't work hard

54:39

has no work

54:40

that's what happened in i see us people got fat know

54:43

work ethic is if you're on a plate norland

54:45

pelicans fan and you don't agree are jason

54:47

the analysis their of of a be

54:49

a player wait movements no

54:51

idle i don't think you're you're wrong and fin de

54:53

large part i mean think about the nineties

54:55

people would raise money to

54:58

go really raise

55:00

money and by servers and a was a really

55:02

risky proposition in a restaurant

55:04

have started building has even i was forty eight dollars an

55:06

amazon account build something tested august

55:08

and data that's the magic of they sort

55:10

of market giving us so much more with so much

55:13

less before you need to raise money the

55:15

idea of whom was the inversion of that list

55:18

with cocaine it wouldn't all areas

55:21

i miss a very entertaining the same

55:23

level of for where everybody maybe an hour heidi

55:25

it up attach them funding sewell yeah

55:28

reddit or how about a mental

55:30

you know just why i'm like you to

55:32

have a fundamental dark already

55:35

the my job is to be about go my like that's

55:37

you know long as we had we had

55:40

a been a real that implanted is basically be like

55:42

hey i'm wildly years multiple now you

55:46

, there's

55:48

there are a balance between a flu like

55:51

that we have a world where we expect a world where we have

55:53

enough teas and a world where you have read

55:55

it and read it is literally the meeting point for

55:57

all of those and why would we ever expect reddit to

55:59

do traditional yeah but

56:02

yet they are something rules here rather

56:05

not on on to read it to the ip

56:07

out

56:08

you've got bridge or fifty million in revenue that's

56:10

real money yeah four hundred million people

56:12

using the product that's a real user base like

56:14

continue on but

56:17

you know in fairness like my we just the

56:19

question about a company and your

56:21

enthusiasm and i said

56:24

me let me think about do any of us

56:26

with when they have one customer we can talk

56:29

because that is like this incredible

56:31

chasm to cross forget

56:33

about zero to one like in the peter eutelsat

56:35

alexander to one am a customer sense a

56:38

paying customer

56:40

the amount of work it takes to get one person take

56:42

a credit card out is phenomenal

56:45

the second a bird is like one percent

56:47

of the work once you get one person to paper superhuman

56:49

or slack the second and third or like a while

56:52

already proven somebody will pay for i also

56:54

recall the one time i did that i

56:56

built a little to me company was a between

56:58

iceland colleges and friends and or be launched a

57:00

duck and cover is ironically and i recall

57:02

the first time people gave us the money i was

57:04

like reading , thing as

57:07

too humble a moment it was in his awesome

57:10

like putting your first dollar on the wall and then you start to get

57:12

back customer feedback the changes

57:14

how you operate yeah no one hundred percent

57:17

that get and actually actionable

57:19

feedback like skin in the game feedback

57:21

is so much different than the

57:23

you know your

57:24

then fraternity brothers

57:26

feedback on some free software know like this

57:28

is incredible concedes world is like with a dummy

57:30

ten bucks a month and like the i know

57:33

the video we've got a bunch other guy i mean

57:35

do i p s latest posts we do like a lightning

57:37

round like many well i feel

57:40

that no idea sure ah ah yes

57:42

no pl impossible foods know

57:45

the i need is losing money possible

57:48

food has to be losing might not the right time for them to go

57:50

public

57:51

commodity business overplayed

57:53

martyred category i was gonna pile into

57:55

it like is if they pulled off a tesla

57:58

and that of italian or and also skilled in owns

58:00

most of the market sure i might have more face but i mean

58:02

it's it's it's soy in a little

58:05

package it's not hard to redo

58:07

the fact defensible now so

58:09

that's a solid no yes no i pl insta

58:11

car

58:12

pandemic darling save a lot of people's bacon

58:15

pandemic save their begun it's gotta go public

58:17

it's going to be missed the

58:19

i say no on this one i know it has to go public

58:21

this is where so much money so much it apart into it but

58:24

in the court versus amazon

58:26

go past the door

58:28

dash eu breeds and

58:30

whole foods own by asked is on it's like

58:33

i don't think they own i don't

58:35

think there's any real value here to the company

58:38

what is their actual value they

58:40

just have relationships with stores and

58:43

lewis's with customers and so what they're trying

58:45

to do highly is moving to kind

58:48

of like totally with and size which to me

58:51

the worst possible business you can if it's not

58:53

right or yeah it does

58:55

that them okay well then corollary

58:58

the entire lighting around slow down acquisition target

59:01

no who can afford their of

59:03

my me i was in town

59:06

when he collapses down to five to

59:08

ten billion it's acquisition target

59:10

like relative there we go oh

59:14

no not saying palatine crowd yelling my

59:16

gosh you can talk with that required just

59:18

like the who are door dash i got

59:21

a door dashboard the

59:23

european cup it was just eat just

59:25

yesterday and then a uber bought

59:27

postmates both of those were you know whatever

59:30

when your number three four five six seven

59:32

your your your acquisition bait when the valuation

59:34

comes to reality yeah i guess me

59:36

out here yes no i p o go puff commerce

59:40

thirty minute deliveries of snacks household goods

59:42

etc we have an interview coming up with

59:44

a burger so but when you get a that's awesome

59:46

about the their overall economics because

59:48

i'd love it as a consumer

59:51

so i hope it's a great business i'm

59:53

going to go yes i feel because i wanted to

59:55

keep bringing me advil importance to maybe

59:58

it's so fast i'm going to say yes

1:00:01

because i think that they know

1:00:03

how to pick categories that

1:00:05

are profitable and markets are profitable based on

1:00:07

our interview them all and i did with found i

1:00:10

think they have discipline and

1:00:12

i understand they need to

1:00:14

be convenience store margins not

1:00:16

grocery store margins which is the opposite of

1:00:18

instagram so it's the anti it's the cart

1:00:20

i don't think they want to

1:00:22

try to make money off of your cereal

1:00:24

and bananas i think they want to make money off your vodka

1:00:27

and advil and vulcan out

1:00:29

a bill or small high margin and you're

1:00:31

going to pay for them when you want them unlike oranges

1:00:33

like you'll pay out the nose run

1:00:37

you can never

1:00:39

as a champion and finally yes

1:00:41

no i pl time

1:00:43

i just for hunter was i'm gonna say

1:00:46

yes playboy

1:00:49

the oh really the to

1:00:51

tell me that they were he but are positives like

1:00:54

and twenty twenty and i was like ok guys will talk

1:00:56

adjusted you but are are like a big kid he but

1:00:58

i do like big kid he bit of so theoretically

1:01:00

if they have a history of material possibility

1:01:03

that time if you are not familiar by the way

1:01:05

the neo by of the to the hodge

1:01:07

face and

1:01:08

the bank robbers no fee i don't

1:01:10

mean or news it is well it means new

1:01:12

but it also means basically let's be real a

1:01:14

fancy skin over somebody elses f the icy

1:01:16

answered process so i will make is not

1:01:18

a real best you can take the curtain down like

1:01:20

that to people the behind the scenes so is

1:01:23

this or any know instead of saying new

1:01:25

or near we could say phobia

1:01:27

the sidebar the nominating

1:01:29

facade yes it makes banking nicer

1:01:32

is actually just like the request for sort of

1:01:34

that we made be there be amazon like

1:01:36

put a nicer friendly interface

1:01:38

and then they do nice things like i'm they'll

1:01:40

give you a little bit of a payday loan

1:01:44

yeah me too banking slumped if you

1:01:46

well if we're gonna go down to facade now

1:01:48

you have a good way to put it has been out of front

1:01:50

in the mafia sense like stripe is a mafia

1:01:52

right exactly and shot a striped as a mafia

1:01:55

china's of fraud on the lawn service

1:01:59

the we're not gonna get some emails with

1:02:01

the so sorry i never around smokers

1:02:03

were going to fun oh yeah i don't know

1:02:05

enough about chime except they

1:02:08

have over ten million account holders

1:02:11

that's kinda hard to fake so when

1:02:13

i look at an assessor start up i look at what's

1:02:15

our debate i don't know

1:02:17

enough about it and i think faking

1:02:20

you know whether it's you that when you start

1:02:22

to get into tens of millions to tens

1:02:24

of millions of people using a product very

1:02:27

hard to fake or manufacture as

1:02:29

so especially when it's up a product or

1:02:32

it involves a deposit though

1:02:34

to open up a coin basic

1:02:36

out and actually grade

1:02:38

something worth of a robin hood accounting traits

1:02:40

other were time and make a deposit or wealth front

1:02:43

shoutout to scapa you bs i'm

1:02:45

yeah i'm all of that stuff takes we'll

1:02:48

work in the real world and so

1:02:51

i say this is yes for me

1:02:53

i say idea i say go you

1:02:55

on both fronts lot i

1:02:58

tried to invest early on and

1:03:01

they've had closed around i said hey can i reopened

1:03:03

vegas how much you want of us and i told them

1:03:05

a number that like take out for you when

1:03:07

advise you to the come they gave

1:03:09

me the amount i tried to pay for the

1:03:12

early in my career when it was like of when you're

1:03:14

all company in equity

1:03:16

so free i got a free are

1:03:19

you want to get out

1:03:21

the to be to your your but you're blaming we were not as

1:03:23

i said i see jesus a or

1:03:25

mourn or are you never know alex whatever

1:03:27

know alex let us get idol i don't want

1:03:29

to be any further negativity plays

1:03:31

i check my how he told the birds of

1:03:34

a robin has a tendency

1:03:36

to

1:03:37

expand the possibilities of a person

1:03:39

in a row you in the pool at aria

1:03:41

but he is gonna take you to this one special lens

1:03:43

and everything is in a change for you my friend of

1:03:46

putting on a , resolve even

1:03:48

if that providence

1:03:51

reporters elected he

1:03:53

view and repeat back to us molly be so kind

1:03:56

there would be back to us all the ip i was we did

1:03:58

yes no ideas that i just

1:04:00

want to go around the horn and pick our

1:04:04

most favorite or wild

1:04:06

card and are least favorite so

1:04:08

most favorite

1:04:10

or wild card one that we just love

1:04:12

for some real weird reason and that are

1:04:15

least favorite

1:04:17

so our list to recap is stripe

1:04:20

the scored read it impossible

1:04:23

since the car the opa

1:04:26

the

1:04:27

chime let's do least favorite first i'm

1:04:29

going with instacart is my least favorite because evaluation

1:04:31

doesn't match reality and competition had

1:04:34

the same ethical or next i

1:04:36

read it is a tie between insta card and impossible

1:04:38

foods for the reason luxuries and outlined

1:04:41

and i i i just want to say that

1:04:43

people kept telling me that everything was going to be different this time

1:04:46

wes low margin high cost liver

1:04:48

isn't i'd never believed yeah

1:04:52

what do you that my least favorite in the i

1:04:54

p o department actually discord

1:04:57

i get why and like discord is

1:04:59

my favorite in many other ways i just don't

1:05:01

necessarily see discord going public

1:05:03

in a down market

1:05:05

coconut or okay down now

1:05:07

let's go for our favorites are

1:05:09

favored in all of this the company

1:05:11

i'll define said or favorite the

1:05:13

strongest idea and you got out

1:05:16

strongest i think it's strongest i be are not

1:05:18

favorite it's stride if it's favorite

1:05:20

is discord just the smaller

1:05:22

emily associated with mailing the let

1:05:24

me rephrase that the one that with a red the

1:05:27

one that would be the best investment if you

1:05:29

hold the for ten years strike okay

1:05:32

side i try to the largest

1:05:34

all right now we go like are the one we love

1:05:37

for some weird reason and

1:05:40

for me that's reddit then i gave

1:05:42

my reason before which was i

1:05:44

think

1:05:45

that it is the slow juggernaut that

1:05:48

just gonna keep growing ten percent a year they

1:05:50

never changed the interface added under monetize

1:05:52

and make it go by beings and

1:05:54

expand

1:05:56

that currency and i think the stock is gonna

1:05:58

run up ridiculously be the eyes

1:06:00

of the songs user base

1:06:02

you know how to manipulate stock okay

1:06:05

i read it became my favorite when you said

1:06:08

that like you would have been my favorite anyway because i

1:06:10

absolutely adore read and i think the smartest people

1:06:12

on the entire planet or on that platform

1:06:14

and i am grateful to have access to them

1:06:16

but also the idea that every single one of them

1:06:18

my by reddit soccer's to speak however

1:06:22

i'm going to go pro

1:06:24

kyle snow forget what is called joe

1:06:27

foss it is designed to take

1:06:29

care of people who are consuming cannabis based

1:06:31

products which are becoming more more legal around the world

1:06:34

and there is no one more likely to order

1:06:36

a bag of chips and paid enormous

1:06:38

delivers it to someone who cannot move off the couch

1:06:40

and swine making a long term that on college students existing

1:06:43

all around the nation stone author of order

1:06:46

to go but also because your vision phone companies

1:06:48

do well you know one of the ah or

1:06:50

oh nice wildcard little that's

1:06:52

a little jag slash fire

1:06:55

the how i look at a data to

1:06:58

sue the company that was gonna

1:07:00

robot van pizzas i'm pizzas lot of emails

1:07:02

about them gives me the gives was i

1:07:05

curled up he said the better

1:07:07

in a company with it said i a

1:07:10

pizza was a six out of ten

1:07:12

i ate from the pieces of one night at our poker

1:07:14

game the pizza trek came because one of my friends

1:07:16

was going to invest they had a mobile

1:07:18

delivery pizza try that was brilliant

1:07:21

here's how it works there were

1:07:23

forty of into the back of like a tractor trailer

1:07:25

but big big car

1:07:28

each one of them had a pizza in it already

1:07:31

and i guess it was refrigerated or they

1:07:33

hit were frozen the added never got an answer to this

1:07:35

but this was or concept the you order your pizza

1:07:38

molly

1:07:39

and it's driving to your you know one hundred

1:07:41

main treating you order to pepperoni and

1:07:43

then alex ordered and your he's at five

1:07:45

hundred main street and he ordered you know to veggie

1:07:47

lover delight now knows

1:07:50

the gps location of the trial buyers

1:07:52

off the and six and seven with

1:07:54

pepperoni the way to your house

1:07:57

the you are watching the

1:08:00

really i've been getting shots of your pizza

1:08:02

and you see the gps location it gets your house

1:08:04

they had to the hot pizza which

1:08:06

is watching his veggie delight and

1:08:09

they could take the thirty forty fifty

1:08:11

minutes of pizza crooked

1:08:13

mobile in a robotic thing down

1:08:15

to whatever that part

1:08:17

i love and part of the making

1:08:20

the pizza in the store

1:08:23

with a robot it wasn't that

1:08:25

much different then what

1:08:27

peter has already doing and

1:08:30

i like soup to nuts robots robots

1:08:32

second go from the

1:08:34

or had to one hundred percent of the job that's

1:08:37

why to combat it's a hundred percent the job

1:08:41

the pizza and the burgers got somewhere

1:08:43

between forty and sixty percent a job which

1:08:46

to me if i doing here

1:08:48

you gotta get one hundred percent

1:08:50

you can't do sixty per cent robotic not helpful

1:08:53

when you play your private poker game with your friends

1:08:55

which we've talked about offline before i forget what what

1:08:58

what state do you guys for like fifty one hundred

1:09:00

or like hundred to one hundred as the center game

1:09:02

or i i

1:09:06

it down to a a

1:09:11

a a to

1:09:15

oh like angeles ca

1:09:17

that how are you will not let you

1:09:20

go to the extent i have had

1:09:22

people offer me like

1:09:24

i'll pay for your by

1:09:26

that the game if you can get me into the game or my

1:09:28

dad know i could have mumbai and know that

1:09:31

are , if you let me talk that's all

1:09:33

i've been

1:09:36

here ever since seventy three and a half

1:09:38

weeks and have gotten three emails

1:09:40

requesting to be part of this script fish

1:09:44

sorry my god are now so i'm

1:09:46

so i'm it in my twitter bio like i can lead

1:09:48

to do and cause of their seats don't come up the i

1:09:50

didn't say this noise and brothers on

1:09:52

there on this room and so forth i didn't

1:09:54

hire some of the as the unsullied todd you're not

1:09:56

mood treasure and it's a true to the hang out

1:09:58

with you more and i just

1:10:00

the good luck on all things that are new i'm really

1:10:02

proud of you and baton

1:10:04

alex think you

1:10:06

all right everybody thanks for tuning in thanks

1:10:08

to alex thanks to mali follow alex alex

1:10:10

and then go ahead and a go into your

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podcast player and search for equity

1:10:14

tech crunch and subscribe to his podcast

1:10:16

it's amazing you get more of what he got here today

1:10:19

and a half hour molly word follow jason

1:10:21

yada yada yada see all excited by both

1:10:24

of i

1:10:32

affording hear on february fourteenth fifteenth

1:10:34

will hosting founder university in ten

1:10:36

to this is to a program for

1:10:38

founder this , is only

1:10:40

open to women founders will be hosting are

1:10:42

course open everyone on a nine

1:10:45

and ten you can apply for both founder

1:10:47

dot university and applications

1:10:49

for the longer twelve week founder university

1:10:52

program are due on february fourteenth

1:10:54

and you can also apply for those at founder

1:10:56

dot university follow jason and

1:10:58

molly on twitter twitter ,

1:11:01

molly wood if youre not a and ten

1:11:04

starts for this be can startups to find fan

1:11:06

account this underscore

1:11:08

week underscore in underscore

1:11:11

startups and artificial account at

1:11:13

to february startups but honestly to fan

1:11:15

account is way better than ours and if still

1:11:17

tired of hearing can jason six days hearing can

1:11:20

you can hear readers book angel a

1:11:22

angel the book dot can apply audible