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0:30

Thanks for listening to the tunnel.

0:32

I'll review with Hugh Hewitt pot cash bringing to you

0:34

the best voices on the stories and issues

0:36

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0:39

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graduate school of public policy. Here's

0:43

another piece I'll trust you enjoy.

0:45

Yeah. So

0:46

Joe Biden had thirty nine percent

0:48

approval. What does that mean historically in

0:51

the first off year of a presidency, Dan

0:53

Balls? Well,

0:55

historically, it means that his party's

0:57

going to take a pretty big beating in the

0:59

in the in the election. That

1:01

if you're that far under

1:03

fifty historically, your

1:05

party can suffer some significant

1:08

losses. I would say

1:11

two things about that, Hugh. One

1:13

is that I

1:15

think we're in an era when presidents

1:19

in general and politicians in general

1:22

are more likely to be or as likely

1:24

to be underwater with their approval rating

1:26

as above water. We're just

1:28

in period in which people are sour

1:30

about president. So I think you have

1:33

to keep that in mind. It doesn't negate the

1:35

fact that he's well underwater. The

1:37

second is, as the poll

1:39

shows, this is an

1:41

election in which they're kind of cross

1:44

currents operating. And

1:47

there's no question that inflation is

1:50

a dominant issue. Crime

1:52

is an issue that the Republicans are are

1:55

trying to make a dominant issue. And

1:58

all of that argues in favor of the

2:00

Republicans, but the abortion issue that

2:02

Bob's decision has clearly energized

2:05

a part of the Democratic base. And so I

2:07

think we're looking at

2:09

an election in which figuring out exactly

2:12

who's going to turn out it may be a little

2:14

bit trickier.

2:15

Now, Dan, I've always thought of off years

2:17

as the closest thing we come to

2:19

parliamentary style elections where it's

2:21

party versus person The

2:23

recency bias in my screen

2:25

is the Brexit vote, the Boris Johnson

2:28

vote, the Swedish elections and the Italian

2:30

elections, which have been decidedly center right

2:32

in their result. And

2:34

so I think if it's a nationalized

2:36

election and this is, well, there

2:38

is undeniably an impact

2:40

on some marginal abortion rights

2:42

minded voters. There's also an

2:44

impact on some marginal pro life

2:47

voters I think they set each other

2:49

off and it comes back to the economy, the

2:51

economy, the economy, and that's pretty grim

2:53

for democrats.

2:55

Well, they've got, you know, they've got a healthy

2:59

double digit lead on the economy and

3:01

inflation. And that that should be

3:03

a big warning sign for Democrats.

3:06

I think if you

3:08

look at this pool in its totality, you've

3:11

come to a conclusion that isn't surprising

3:13

and that is that Republicans are

3:15

on track to win the House,

3:19

but that's in part because they don't have to they

3:21

don't have to do all that well to win the House.

3:24

The question is how much

3:26

their margin is likely to be

3:29

by the time we get through through the election.

3:31

But I think they are

3:33

still favored to win the House,

3:35

but perhaps not by as much

3:37

as they were pre

3:39

knobs. But the other

3:41

is that -- so if you're Kevin McCarthy,

3:44

you look at this cold and you say good.

3:46

I mean, we're moving

3:48

in the direction that we need to move and

3:51

we've got to keep the pressure on. If you're

3:53

Mitch McConnell, it's

3:55

harder to say, things

3:57

are going to really be good because a lot

3:59

of these races are – these competitive

4:02

center races are

4:04

within the And it looks

4:06

as though Pennsylvania is

4:08

one that the Republicans could give

4:10

up So they're going to

4:12

have to find some seats to win elsewhere.

4:14

Now they have some possibilities, obviously. Georgia

4:17

and Nevada being two prime

4:19

ones. So So, but if

4:21

you're Mitch McConnell, you can look at

4:23

this call and say, well, it doesn't tell me

4:25

exactly how I'm going to feel the day

4:27

after the election or by December.

4:30

No.

4:30

They run through you have to run through the tick because there'll be

4:32

a runoff in Georgia and all likelihood. But I feel

4:34

pretty good about Herschel, and I feel pretty

4:36

good about Dr. Oz, very

4:38

confident about JD Vance, very confident

4:40

about Adam Lachshalt. The two toss

4:42

ups are O'Dea and Tiffany Smiley

4:44

that you didn't mention in Blake Masters,

4:46

can he put it on and does the turnout? Katie

4:48

Hobbs a terrible candidate. If you saw how you

4:50

follow that, Dan? I know if you follow Arizona.

4:53

Katie, I'm maybe the worst candidate. Tom,

4:55

I think at this point,

4:58

I would give Mark Kelley

5:00

an advantage in that race.

5:04

But in the governor's race,

5:06

I think that Cary Lake could well win that.

5:08

Yes. And I think poor Mark Kelly.

5:10

He's got a deal with Katie Hobbs who

5:12

won't show up anywhere. And

5:14

the difference of of course in

5:16

Pennsylvania and you'll know this, you know everything.

5:18

You're like, I used to talk to Barron and Broader.

5:21

In Pennsylvania, they have a history of splitting

5:23

tickets because Joshua is gonna win.

5:26

He's gonna be on the ticket in twenty twenty

5:28

four and twenty twenty eight. He's like the perfect

5:30

candidate from central casting for Democrats.

5:32

And I don't know if Democrats

5:34

split tickets over there or independents.

5:37

What do you think in the Keystone State, Dan?

5:39

Would they go for Shapiro and vote

5:41

for us?

5:42

the

5:44

Well, I think it depends on

5:46

Shapiro's margin. I mean, we could see tickets

5:48

living in a variety of places, right? I mean,

5:50

we could see -- you may be right

5:52

about Hersha Walker in Georgia,

5:54

but we could see a situation in

5:57

which Stacey Abrams, you know, loses

6:00

and loses by more than a couple of

6:02

points and we're not

6:04

called on. I'm not saying that

6:06

will happen, but I think that could happen. I think

6:08

in Pennsylvania, you could see a situation.

6:11

I would be more inclined to say

6:13

that the Federman pulls that out.

6:15

I think that the health issue is still

6:18

unresolved I think in some voters'

6:21

minds probably. But I

6:24

think if Shapiro is winning

6:26

pretty handily, I think that gives

6:28

Federman, some help.

6:30

I mean, Federman has captured

6:32

the imagination of the Democratic base.

6:35

And so I think that those those swing

6:37

loaders in Pennsylvania, which there are clearly

6:39

some, will

6:41

hold the balance. But at this point,

6:43

I would think that Federman has a little bit of an

6:45

edge in that race. Okay. Let

6:47

let's put that aside. Dan and I will talk

6:49

about that after the election because I'm

6:51

feeling very good about doctor Oz, but he

6:53

still inclined towards Federman. Let's

6:55

conclude, Dan, by telling you about

6:57

the dog that doesn't bark. A

6:59

month ago, Joe Biden announced with ruffles

7:01

and flourishes the student

7:03

loan bailout. Yesterday, the congressional

7:06

budget office said it will cost four hundred

7:08

billion dollars I am not alone in

7:10

noticing that president does

7:12

not ever bring this up.

7:14

Has anything ever been as

7:16

off target as that in the middle of

7:18

an election season?

7:20

Well, you know, I'd have

7:22

to scroll back a long time. You

7:27

know,

7:27

that four hundred billion dollars number that

7:29

CDX-four zero, yes, today is going

7:31

to bring that issue back to the fore.

7:36

And having talked some voters

7:38

this fall.

7:39

There

7:40

are Democratic voters who are clearly conflicted

7:42

about this. I'm not telling you anything you don't know.

7:44

I don't know whether that

7:46

is going to rise to the level of being

7:49

the issue that in

7:51

one way or another really turns

7:53

some of these races. I think

7:55

that's the question. I think that issues

7:58

like obviously inflation and

7:59

crime

8:01

and abortion are going to be more

8:04

powerful issues in people's minds than

8:06

that. But it

8:09

was a very controversial decision.

8:12

And one of the reasons we know

8:14

that is it took President Biden

8:16

a very, very, very long time

8:18

to decide to do it. That

8:21

was on the table for months and months

8:23

before he finally agreed to do it. So

8:25

I think even in his mind, he knew

8:27

that that this was one that

8:30

had some pluses, but also a lot of minuses.

8:32

The dog that didn't burn. Last question,

8:34

Dan Ball is when we come back around at

8:36

the end of all this divided

8:38

government is going to loom one way or the other.

8:41

How well do you think

8:43

president Biden is equipped deal with

8:45

divided government, given his

8:47

age, given his sort

8:49

of aggressiveness towards the

8:51

semi fashion reiterate consider. Can he

8:53

actually work with the people he worked with for so

8:55

long going forward? Well,

8:58

I don't know the answer to that. I mean, we've

9:00

seen instances in which he's tried to

9:02

work with Republicans. And

9:04

there have been some bipartisan successes.

9:07

And I think that think

9:09

that that's still part of his instinct

9:11

that he would like to get back

9:13

to

9:14

a

9:15

governing environment

9:17

which he was used to for for many,

9:19

many years. I frankly

9:21

am not convinced that that governing

9:25

environment is possible today. I

9:27

think he will have trouble with a house

9:29

that's in Republican hands, particularly

9:32

if they launch a series of

9:34

investigations that that he could well

9:36

get his backup over. But

9:39

the Senate is the institution

9:41

he knows and loves and

9:43

if the Senate is a Republican

9:45

hands, he'll he'll I suspect

9:47

try to work with Mitch McConnell, but I don't

9:49

know how successful that will be. I just

9:51

think that you know, Hugh, you know

9:53

this. We're going to get plunged into twenty

9:55

twenty four immediately after this

9:57

midterm election and that's going to color so

9:59

much of what goes on over the next two

10:01

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and so can you, your CSL

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10:35

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