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BBC Sounds music radio

1:17

podcasts. Hello, it's 555 days

1:21

since Russia began its full scale invasion

1:23

of Ukraine.

1:24

And today we are going to explore in detail

1:26

how Ukraine's counter offensive is

1:28

going. On Thursday, Ukraine's

1:31

foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba dismissed

1:33

criticism of the pace of the counter

1:36

offensive.

1:36

Criticizing the slow pace of

1:39

counter offensive equals to

1:42

spitting into the face of Ukrainian

1:44

soldier who sacrifices his

1:47

life every day moving

1:49

forward and liberating one

1:51

kilometer of Ukrainian soil after

1:54

another. I would recommend all

1:56

critics to shut up, come to Ukraine

1:59

and try. to liberate one square

2:01

centimeter by themselves. Thank you.

2:04

That is so powerful, isn't it, Vitaly,

2:06

spitting in the face of a Ukrainian soldier? Yes,

2:08

and all those square kilometers of

2:12

Ukrainian land retaken by Ukrainian

2:14

forces, the price is

2:16

blood, sweat and tears. And

2:19

the Ukrainian foreign minister also

2:22

said that recent gradual

2:25

advances such as the capture

2:27

of the village of Rabotene. ...in

2:31

the Parisia region could help lead

2:34

to pushing the Russians back to

2:36

Crimea, all the way to Crimea.

2:38

Yet we do have to point out that the

2:40

counter offensive hasn't

2:42

achieved as much as the Ukrainians would

2:45

have wanted by this stage. It's yielded

2:47

small gains. We're not criticising,

2:49

we're just reporting on it. But yeah, if

2:51

you're criticising it, go to Kiev and

2:53

try and reclaim one square centimeter,

2:56

as Dimitro Kolebo put it. So

2:59

in this episode, we'll look at the latest developments.

3:02

Do they indicate any kind

3:04

of possible breakthrough? Is that wishful

3:06

thinking? Why is it such

3:08

slow progress for Kiev? And

3:11

how long might it all take? This

3:13

is Ukraine. Ukraine

3:16

is an epicentre of

3:20

unbearable heartache and

3:22

pain. Millions of people are without

3:24

heating, without water. Putin

3:27

is the aggressor. He will be ready

3:29

to use nuclear weapons.

3:31

They killed him and fled. I do not know

3:34

how we managed to survive. I want

3:37

people to know the truth.

3:40

Hello, this is Victoria Derbyshire in the Ukrainecast

3:43

studio. And this is Vitaly Shavchenko

3:45

at home in Reading. Later in this episode,

3:48

we're going to talk to CNN's Christiane Amempor,

3:50

who is currently in Kiev. But

3:52

first, we're really going to drill down into

3:55

how Ukraine's counter offensive is going.

3:58

To help us, we're going to talk to two people

3:59

who essentially follow the counter offensive

4:02

for a living.

4:02

Riley Bailey is Russia analyst

4:05

from the Institute for the Study of War in

4:07

Washington DC. Riley, welcome to

4:09

Ukrainecast. Thank you for having me. I'm excited

4:12

to speak today. And Professor Michael

4:14

Kark is with us, defense and security

4:16

analyst based here in London. Michael, hello

4:18

to you.

4:18

Yes, hello. We're gonna try

4:21

and split this conversation up into three

4:23

parts. So we make it as straightforward

4:25

as we can for our listeners. So the

4:28

aim of the counter offensive,

4:30

how's it going, and where it might

4:32

end up. Riley, let's

4:34

start with you. First of all, where is the

4:36

counter offensive going on and what is the

4:39

point of it? So currently we see

4:41

the Ukrainian counter offensive

4:43

operations in three main areas

4:46

of the frontline. So we have a

4:48

Ukrainian effort around Bakhmout

4:51

in Eastern Ukraine. And then we have two

4:54

Ukrainian counter offensive efforts in the South.

4:58

One along the administrative border between Donetsk

5:00

and Zapparizio Oblast, and then

5:02

one in Western Zapparizio Oblast.

5:05

Overall, the Ukrainian counter offensive

5:08

aims to liberate Ukrainian

5:10

territory and bring Ukrainian forces

5:13

closer to key Russian

5:16

logistics

5:16

lines in the South, allowing

5:19

Ukrainian forces to heavily interdict

5:21

those and essentially cut

5:24

Russian logistics along the land

5:26

bridge between occupied Eastern Ukraine,

5:29

the South

5:30

and Russian occupied Crimea.

5:32

I wanted to ask Professor Clark, Ukrainian

5:35

officials are saying they

5:37

want to restore Ukraine to

5:40

its borders as they were in 1991,

5:44

which is to say, including Crimea

5:47

and Donbass. Is this the

5:49

ultimate aim of the counter offensive?

5:52

Is it realistic? No, it's not the ultimate aim

5:54

of the counter offensive. It's the ultimate aim of

5:56

the war. And you would expect Ukrainian

5:58

officials to say that.

5:59

Ukraine was established in 1991 along with 14 other

6:02

states. When

6:04

the Soviet Union collapsed, it was replaced by 15 states

6:07

of which Ukraine is one, the Russian Federation was

6:09

another. So Ukraine has

6:11

an absolute claim to the full territorial

6:14

sovereignty that was established in 1991. You

6:17

wouldn't expect them to give an inch on that, at

6:19

least rhetorically. This offensive,

6:21

I mean, as Riley was saying, is going on

6:24

in two or three places. And

6:26

realistically, if they can reach the coast,

6:29

either it's a Marie Apollo, Berdy Andsk, if they can

6:31

get to the sea of Azov from Zappodesia,

6:33

then they cut the Russian land bridge in half and

6:35

make it unviable for those

6:38

troops to the west of the land bridge, those Russian troops

6:40

who'll be marooned on the west of the land bridge. Most

6:43

importantly, they can threaten Crimea. Now,

6:45

they're not going to take back Crimea in this offensive,

6:48

but they could put themselves in a position to threaten Crimea.

6:51

And that would be a big strategic advantage

6:54

to the Ukrainians in any ceasefire negotiations

6:56

that take place. But I stress ceasefire,

6:59

I mean, it'll be an unstable ceasefire

7:01

because we're heading for this is the second war,

7:03

there'll be a third and fourth on present trends.

7:07

But a favorable ceasefire would actually

7:09

give Ukraine some leverage in

7:11

any subsequent negotiations. But their claim,

7:14

of course, is they want the whole of their territory

7:16

back. Why wouldn't they?

7:17

So the third or fourth on

7:19

current trends, obviously, this the

7:22

first is 2014, the second war is 2022.

7:25

What are you saying, Michael? Well,

7:28

I say that the best we can hope for

7:30

is a ceasefire on reasonable

7:33

terms to Ukraine, which will be an unstable

7:35

ceasefire. So a third war we could expect,

7:37

you know, in the next three or four years and then a fourth

7:40

war. I mean, this antagonism whereby

7:42

Russia is determined to snuff out Ukraine

7:45

as an independent state, that's generational. So

7:47

that will go on for 40 or 50 years.

7:49

And Ukraine, look at the the

7:51

Balkan crisis started in 1992. It's still

7:54

with us. The Cyprus crisis started in 1964. It's

7:57

still with us. These things are generational.

7:59

What we're looking at is whether

8:02

this phase of the antagonism of

8:04

Russia's antagonism against Ukraine, whether

8:06

this phase can somehow be halted,

8:08

let's guess, sometime next year,

8:11

and some sort of stability

8:13

put in place so that we can all get on

8:15

with our lives, even though

8:17

Ukraine probably won't by then have

8:20

full control of all of its 1991 territories. Riley,

8:23

do you agree with that assessment? I would say

8:25

that by allowing

8:27

Russian forces to maintain the positions they

8:29

do in occupied Ukraine, even

8:32

with a ceasefire,

8:33

you are giving Russia favorable

8:36

conditions to launch another

8:39

invasion of Ukrainian

8:41

held territory. And

8:43

so at this point, the most secure

8:46

way for Ukraine to defend itself

8:48

is for it to liberate all of its territory

8:51

and degrade the capabilities that Russia

8:53

has to launch another invasion.

8:55

Yeah, I don't disagree with that. I'm

8:58

not recommending that this is what I would like to happen.

9:00

I'm just saying this is what I think will happen. Okay,

9:02

so we've discussed

9:03

what Ukraine may be trying

9:06

to achieve as part of the

9:08

counteroffensive. Now let's talk about

9:11

how it's going. Riley, what are your thoughts?

9:13

Yeah, so I think a lot of the

9:15

reaction, the West at least, is

9:18

that they were expecting a

9:20

rapid mechanized breakthrough for

9:23

Russian defensive lines, and that

9:25

hasn't quite materialized.

9:28

And so a whole lot of people in the West have now

9:30

painted the counteroffensive as

9:33

slower than expected. I think

9:35

this misses how Ukrainian forces

9:38

have been fighting this war, and

9:40

specifically how they have fought

9:42

in previous counteroffensive operations.

9:45

So currently, the Ukrainian effort

9:47

across the line is to

9:50

both thoroughly degrade Russian

9:52

defensive lines, while stretching

9:55

and pinning Russian forces in certain

9:57

sectors of the front.

9:59

the Russian command, prioritize

10:03

where they're going to have to defend. What

10:05

the Ukrainians don't want to see is

10:07

the Russians falling back in good order in front

10:09

of them, because they fall back in good order, they'll dig

10:11

in 20 miles further south and then 20 miles further south

10:13

again.

10:14

What they're hoping, and there is some indication

10:17

that they may be justified now in this

10:19

hope, is that the Russians will crack,

10:21

is that having broken through the first

10:23

line of defense, the Russians have got basically three

10:26

lines of defense in what are called the sort

10:28

of the vekin lines in the south towards Tokmak

10:30

and then Molita Pole and then

10:32

the coast. And that they've broken through the

10:34

first and some of the second lines,

10:37

and the Russians may now be finding

10:39

that they're so stretched, as Riley says,

10:41

that they can't now man the third line properly.

10:44

And what the Ukrainians are hoping

10:46

is that the Russians, as they get pushed

10:48

back, will be disorganized, they'll be unbalanced,

10:50

and they'll be able to keep them unbalanced. And

10:52

they think that they've done enough damage to the

10:54

Russians both on the front line and behind the lines

10:57

in actually destroying their supplies,

11:00

their ammunition, and so on, that they'll

11:02

crack. And the fact is the Russians are now bringing

11:05

some of their elite forces to

11:07

plug the holes in the front line, let alone

11:09

the second and third lines, which indicates that

11:11

they've probably, the Russians are stretched, and

11:13

we know they haven't been relieved. We

11:17

know that they haven't been rotated. So they've all been fighting

11:19

on those front lines, certainly since the

11:22

4th of June when the Ukrainian offensive started.

11:24

And most of them for some time before that. And

11:27

so the theory is that the Russians

11:29

may now be at a point where they won't

11:31

fall back in good order. They'll crack

11:33

in two or three places at once.

11:34

So how significant

11:37

or otherwise is this apparent breakthrough in

11:39

a place called Robotona, which is in

11:42

Zapparizia?

11:48

Is it a village? Is it a town?

11:50

How big is it? Where is it in the front line? How

11:53

does it help the Ukrainians?

11:55

It's a Chinese settlement south of O And

11:57

the point is the fact that it's a tiny settlement.

11:59

isn't important. What's important is it's on the high

12:02

ground. There's a sort of a bridge that runs north

12:04

to south and Robertin is

12:06

on the top of that ridge and having taken

12:09

it, the Russians defended it quite hard, but

12:11

having taken it, the Ukrainians have now got, they can

12:13

see Tokmak, which is a big

12:15

objective for them in the south and that's

12:18

only about 10 miles away from where they are. And

12:21

they're already south of Robertin

12:23

now and they're fighting around Novo

12:25

Prokivka

12:26

and also at Ocherichovale

12:29

to dominate the two main roads that

12:31

go into Tokmak and they're doing pretty well

12:33

there. And so the point is the Ukrainians

12:36

have got the high ground and they've got the access

12:38

points into Tokmak. If they get Tokmak,

12:41

then they get the road and rail hub

12:43

for the south that the Russians are using. And

12:46

that's a bit tough one, but if they get Tokmak,

12:48

then they are in good position to get to Molita

12:50

Pole.

12:51

If they get to Molita Pole, then they've achieved the

12:53

first of their big strategic objectives, which

12:56

is to put Crimea at risk of

12:58

their artillery. And it's a good

13:00

jumping point, jumping off place maybe to get

13:02

to the coast on the sea as of, as we

13:04

mentioned earlier. Let us now talk about the

13:06

how, how Ukrainians are doing it, how

13:09

they've taken Robertin in particular. Have

13:12

they committed the

13:13

best weaponry

13:16

that the West has given

13:18

them or are they holding

13:20

back things like the Challenger tanks waiting

13:23

for something to happen before they go all

13:25

in? Professor Clark.

13:27

No, the, the challenges are in, are in action.

13:30

At least the 82nd air

13:32

assault brigade is in action. Ukrainians 82nd and they've

13:34

got, they've got the 14 challenges

13:37

with them. So the 82nd are fighting

13:39

and they've been there at Robertin. The

13:42

Ukrainians have committed now all,

13:44

but I think two or three

13:46

that we know of, of their brigades,

13:49

of their new brigades to

13:52

the frontline. And there's only a couple of brigades we

13:54

can't really account for. So everything they've

13:56

got is now in play.

13:57

May not all be fighting today

13:59

as we speak, but it's all there now.

14:02

I think they decided that

14:04

they'd reached the point a couple of weeks ago

14:06

that they had to go for it.

14:09

It's now all or nothing. They've got maybe two months

14:11

left of the available time

14:13

before the weather turns. I think logically,

14:16

all offenses run out of steam eventually.

14:19

They've probably got another eight weeks

14:21

or something like that of being

14:24

on the front foot of having the initiative,

14:26

and they are using all that they've got now

14:29

against the Russian front lines.

14:32

Okay. Let's go to the third

14:34

part of our conversation. Where might

14:37

this end up? And by this, we

14:39

mean the counter offensive and

14:42

the bigger

14:43

war. What would you say, Michael? How

14:46

well this counter offensive is perceived to

14:48

do by the outside world will be critical

14:50

to what happens next in the war.

14:53

So if the outside world feels

14:55

that this counter offensive is changing the balance

14:58

of the war, if it gives us a realistic

15:00

sense

15:01

that Ukraine can be successful in the

15:03

next year or eight or 18 months, then

15:05

the West will feel encouraged to keep on supporting

15:08

Ukraine. But if the sense at the end

15:11

of this counter offensive is that actually we're

15:13

heading for stalemate,

15:14

then Ukraine loses politically,

15:16

however well they've done militarily on the ground.

15:19

But like all military operations, it comes down to

15:21

a matter of political perception. Does

15:23

this counter offensive

15:25

put Ukraine within reach

15:28

of a real military victory in a realistic

15:30

time? If that's the feeling in the West,

15:33

then it has succeeded. If it doesn't,

15:35

then it will have failed. A counter

15:37

offensive operation is not a

15:40

very defined linear

15:43

set

15:44

of operations. And what we

15:46

might be seeing here is

15:49

a very intentional effort to set

15:51

conditions for future counter

15:54

offensive operations. So

15:56

I think it would be very premature

15:59

at this point.

15:59

point or even at the end of this

16:02

series of counteroffensive operations to

16:04

call them a failure. They

16:07

have

16:08

continued to thoroughly degrade

16:10

the overall Russian offensive

16:13

campaign in Ukraine.

16:14

And if Ukraine even

16:17

is able to liberate even

16:19

a smaller amount of territory than

16:22

what Western observers were expecting

16:24

at the outset

16:25

of this counteroffensive, that will still

16:28

set conditions. For Ukrainian

16:31

forces to exploit

16:33

deep, deep weaknesses and

16:36

the overall campaign design of

16:38

the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

16:40

Okay,

16:41

a couple of quick questions from our listeners.

16:43

This is from Vaughan on Discord.

16:46

During the counteroffensive in the Harkiv

16:48

area and Hason city, we saw some pretty

16:51

spectacular victories for Ukraine. Tonight

16:54

at 10, Ukrainian soldiers reenter

16:56

the city of Hason after Russian troops

16:59

withdraw in what could prove to be

17:01

a decisive moment in the nine month

17:03

war. Have

17:09

these caused people to have unrealistic

17:11

expectations during this current counteroffensive,

17:14

Michael? I think it led people to

17:16

make too many assumptions. Those victories last year

17:18

were because the Ukrainians took

17:20

the Russians by surprise and they attacked them where their forces

17:23

were weak. In the case of this counteroffensive,

17:25

the Russians knew it was coming

17:27

and they've had months to dig in. So

17:29

the conditions are completely different to

17:31

what happened in Harkiv and Kerson last year.

17:33

We've also got a question from Tamzin, who's

17:36

asking, approximately

17:38

how long is it before

17:40

we hit winter again and what conditions could

17:42

come into play? And

17:45

could the offensive carry on through

17:47

this

17:47

next winter? Yeah,

17:50

I would like to say that this notion

17:52

that there's a fighting season in

17:55

Ukraine is a very Western

17:57

notion.

17:58

There are definitely period. of the year

18:01

in which fighting is easier

18:03

to do. This notion that winter

18:06

is the difficult time to conduct operations

18:08

is a little false. It's more so

18:11

the transition between fall into winter

18:13

and winter into spring when the ground is muddy.

18:15

That makes mechanized maneuver

18:18

warfare with heavy military equipment

18:20

very difficult. But the

18:23

middle of winter when the ground freezes,

18:25

you actually can move across country

18:28

in that heavy military equipment. And

18:31

we actually kind of saw proof of this once

18:33

again, Russian forces launched

18:36

their winter spring offensive

18:38

operation

18:40

towards the end of winter. Okay.

18:43

If you would like to join our Discord community,

18:45

leave us a voice note. There's a link to it

18:47

on our episode page and also

18:49

keep sending your messages on email to ukrainecast.bbc.co.uk

18:53

or via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram. It's plus

18:55

four, four, three, three, zero, one, two, three, nine, four,

18:58

eight, zero. Michael, Professor Michael

19:00

Clarke. Thank you. Riley, Riley Bailey,

19:02

thank you so much for being with us on UkraineCast and

19:05

for really nailing the detail of where we're up

19:07

to with this counter offensive. Thank

19:08

you so much. Thank you. Yes, thank

19:10

you. Pleasure to be

19:11

here. We

19:15

are going to welcome back to UkraineCast CNN's

19:18

chief international anchor, Christiane

19:20

Amanpour, who is in Kyiv. Hello,

19:22

Christiane. Hi, hi Victoria. So

19:25

how are things in Kyiv right now? Does this

19:27

feel like a critical time in this war? Well,

19:30

it does. I mean, it may not look

19:32

it in terms of the international sort

19:34

of picture and the reporting. Sadly,

19:37

I have to say that, you know, the longer this

19:39

goes on, the less journalists

19:41

are here. And I think that's a critical mistake

19:44

because what's happening

19:44

is absolutely vital for

19:47

everyone to know. And particularly

19:49

what we've experienced here in Kyiv in this

19:51

just week alone is the biggest

19:54

cruise

19:54

missile attack on the capital since

19:56

the spring, but even more significantly

19:59

and important. is the biggest ever

20:02

Ukrainian drone attack into

20:04

Russia. We've

20:09

been discussing the counter offensive

20:12

in detail in today's podcast.

20:15

What's your sense about how it's

20:17

seen in Kiev?

20:19

Are people

20:21

hopeful? Are people tired? Are

20:24

people critical that it's going too

20:26

slow? What's the mood there?

20:28

Everybody knows that the time

20:30

that the Russians have had to, ever

20:33

since her son for sure, which

20:35

was back in November, they

20:37

have been laying very sophisticated

20:40

and deep trenches and defensive

20:43

lines and minds. And that's

20:45

what's causing some difficulty. Ukrainians

20:48

tell us, certainly the Ministry

20:50

of Defense and others, that they've broken through

20:52

at least the first line of defense in the South.

20:54

So it's a gradual effort. We understand

20:57

that in the North, the Northeast, it's

21:00

slightly

21:01

more difficult. The Russians are trying to

21:04

retake territory that

21:06

they had, and then the Ukrainians liberated

21:08

it. And now it's back, trying

21:10

to be taken again by the Russians. So look,

21:12

it's a long frontline, some 600 miles.

21:15

British General Sheriff,

21:17

who was the deputy NATO commander, he

21:20

said, a lot of what Ukraine

21:22

has been given in just recently

21:24

should have come a lot earlier. They needed the tanks

21:27

earlier. They needed the long range missiles

21:29

earlier. They certainly needed fighter

21:31

jets earlier. And the fact that

21:33

it's coming later is

21:36

playing out in the field as we see right now. But

21:39

in terms of timescales,

21:42

yep, it's a hard slog for the Ukrainians. It's

21:44

going to take time. There are elections

21:47

in the US just over a year away. And

21:49

depending on who wins, it could be absolutely

21:51

critical for whether support from the US for

21:53

Ukraine's war effort continues or not.

21:56

The Western Alliance, the Democratic Alliance,

21:58

the NATO Alliance, whatever you want to call it.

21:59

the bloc that supports Ukraine

22:02

is doing it not just for Ukraine,

22:05

but obviously for Ukraine, because that's

22:07

where they feel the battle for the

22:09

international rules-based order, the

22:11

battle for democracy is playing

22:14

out. And if it is not won on

22:16

the Ukrainian battlefield, then that will

22:18

compromise this whole process that

22:21

has defined this post-Second World

22:23

War era. So they seem

22:25

to be serious about their mission. So

22:27

the question is, are they serious about backing

22:29

it up with credible

22:32

force and timely force and

22:34

the right force at the right time? I think

22:36

in the United States, both Republicans and

22:39

Democrats, if you want to talk about the centrist

22:41

Republicans, the more Republicans

22:43

in Congress, I do believe that

22:45

they

22:46

acknowledge this. This is

22:48

your fourth time in Ukraine

22:50

since the start of the war last year. Have

22:53

you been able to see

22:55

any changes? Is Ukraine

22:58

any different now from what you saw

23:00

on your first few visits there?

23:02

What's happening is that it's progressing

23:06

and they essentially

23:08

move the war away from the capital

23:10

and it's progressing. Frankly, and I'm

23:13

sorry about this, mostly out of sight

23:16

on the southern and eastern front. The Ukrainians

23:18

do not give general access

23:21

to the press to the actual ongoing

23:23

war, unlike many of the wars we've covered before,

23:26

particularly US wars. There's this

23:28

whole process of embedding

23:29

and this and that. And I think that's a

23:31

disadvantage because when you're trying to tell a

23:33

story, you've got to tell a story and you

23:35

can only tell the story when you're there.

23:38

So

23:38

that is an issue. I

23:40

would say that all the civilians

23:42

are still, they all know that everything

23:44

they do is also part of the war effort. And

23:47

I have had incredible access

23:49

to drone making, I'm

23:51

going to say factory and inverted commas. Here

23:55

in this innocuous looking field with

23:57

a rudimentary obstacle course.

23:59

could almost be child's play, but with

24:02

deadly results, of course. These

24:04

are all civilian drones, but it's civilians

24:06

who are literally buying because they're not allowed to

24:08

buy military

24:09

drones. They are buying off

24:11

the shelf civilian drones, drones

24:13

that might look like you can play them in, you know, sort of computer

24:16

games,

24:16

those kinds of things. And they are converting

24:18

them. And this is having an effect.

24:21

Would you want to be embedded with Ukrainian

24:24

troops? And why aren't they allowing that

24:26

kind of access? I don't know. I think

24:28

that they may be operational

24:30

security. Maybe they're just not used to

24:32

having press. This is

24:33

not, you know, the Western military

24:37

operating, which have been much, much, much

24:39

more used to press being embedded.

24:41

I mean, you know, obviously, ever since Vietnam,

24:43

maybe they just don't want to give away anything.

24:46

As a seasoned political

24:48

observer, Christian, what's

24:51

your view of how

24:54

Ukrainians are

24:56

approaching, shall we say, cooperation

24:59

with the West? There have been reports of

25:02

disagreements of how this counteroffensive

25:05

should be conducted. There have been claims

25:07

that Ukrainians, President

25:09

Zelensky in particular, are ungrateful.

25:13

Do you think

25:15

he's doing it right? The Ukrainians are doing it right.

25:17

Talking to the Americans like that? President

25:20

Zelensky has been the main

25:22

messenger and communicator

25:25

for this country since the first day when

25:27

he surprised everybody by coming

25:30

out, you know, and standing in the square

25:32

by the presidency and saying, I'm here,

25:34

we're here.

25:41

We're going to defend that famous

25:43

line that he said when he was offered apparently,

25:45

and I asked him this in my interview with him. Were

25:47

you really offered to be flown

25:50

out by President Biden? And did you really

25:52

say I need ammunition and not

25:55

an exit ramp?

25:56

And he said, yes. So I think

25:59

that he. and the Ukrainian

26:01

people have been masterful

26:03

in their communications, in their messaging.

26:06

I mean, it surprised me

26:07

to be honest. They've been very, very

26:10

adroit in how they have

26:12

pursued public awareness

26:15

and public support and shown their

26:17

people that they are not afraid

26:19

to ask the much more powerful

26:22

countries, please give us what

26:24

we need and give it to us now. We thank

26:26

you and we're grateful for everything. And

26:28

without what you gave us, yep, we might've folded

26:31

early, but they need more.

26:33

And the thing is, what they're saying is, it

26:36

is much better politically

26:38

for the West to see results

26:41

much, much quicker so that they can

26:43

show their people that this fight was

26:45

worth it. And the truth is

26:48

that many of the military

26:48

experts who are more than

26:51

experts, but actual former commanders and who know

26:53

about this kind of battle, tell me

26:55

that they should have received so

26:57

much more of this important military

27:00

equipment much earlier.

27:02

You have covered many conflicts. You've have years

27:04

of experience of reporting on wars

27:06

right around the world. From

27:09

your observations over many years,

27:12

how might this conflict end? Here

27:14

in Ukraine, the end game is to get

27:17

all Russian forces to withdraw

27:20

first and foremost. There is no diplomatic

27:23

space right now. There's no groundwork

27:26

for a peace negotiation right now. This

27:28

fight has to continue. You can

27:30

take the first Gulf War. That was ended

27:32

by overwhelming force. And

27:35

they beat the Iraqis, period,

27:37

end of story. The Sarajevo-Bosnia

27:40

War was ended after four years

27:43

of not supporting them militarily. And

27:45

then finally supporting them militarily,

27:48

the NATO forces bombed from the

27:50

air for about 20 days or less and

27:52

bombed just Serbian artillery

27:54

positions that were around Sarajevo and other parts

27:57

of Bosnia that were attacking civilians.

27:59

what ended that war

28:01

and permitted the

28:03

diplomatic process called the Dayton Accords to

28:06

start. That's what ended that war.

28:08

These

28:09

nations that are attacked have incredible

28:11

heart,

28:12

incredible understanding

28:14

that they are fighting for their lives, that they do

28:16

not want to live under, as I've heard over

28:19

and over again, a Russian-style

28:21

dictatorship.

28:21

I guess they're trying to change the

28:23

lay of the land. And the only way it's going to end

28:26

is if enough pain is inflicted

28:28

on the battlefield so that the aggressor

28:31

gets it

28:32

and knows that the cost is getting too, too

28:34

high and they need to come to the

28:37

negotiating table. Christian, thank

28:39

you very much for talking to us and our

28:41

listeners around the world on UkraineCast. We appreciate

28:44

it as always and take

28:46

care in

28:46

Kyiv. Thank you to both of you.

28:54

Just before we go, on the last episode of UkraineCast,

28:57

we talked about the fact that children across

28:59

Ukraine were going back to school

29:01

today, Friday, both

29:03

in person and via

29:05

Zoom. There are some incredible

29:08

videos doing the rounds on social media,

29:11

including this one of children

29:13

in Kraviriyev singing the popular

29:15

Ukrainian song, Chervona Kalina, from

29:18

a bomb shelter.

29:21

They

29:24

just sound so cute. Let me just describe

29:27

this video. There are a group of about 12

29:29

kids facing

29:32

each other. There are no desks. They're in a shelter. There's

29:34

a very low ceiling. There are a few adults and teachers

29:36

standing around, one teacher holding

29:39

a fan because it must be so hot in

29:41

that shelter. A couple of kids are holding

29:43

bunches of flowers or a sunflower,

29:46

but literally just singing

29:49

and getting on with it. So delicious,

29:51

I have to say.

29:51

Absolutely incredible. And

29:54

whatever you're listening to us in the world, take care.

29:57

UkraineCast from BBC News.

30:00

you