Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin returns! Peter first came on the pod a few months ago to discuss the famous prediction he made in 2010 that we were headed for crisis, circa 2020. Last time, we covered the controversy he’s stirred up within the historical discipline, the methodologies behind cliodynamics/his data-based predictions, and the drivers of social unrest (in particular, elite overproduction). This conversation — recorded on the heels of the publication of his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration— we pick up where we left off. Peter explains it all: how do we prevent all-out civil war? What’s the most likely outcome if we keep on the path we’re currently on? And is he more of a Harry Seldon or a Leto II?

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On the agenda:

-L’intro [0:00-3:30]

-A quick re-cap [3:30-7:29]

-Breaking the rules [7:30-15:04]

-Clearly in crisis [15:05-19:28]

-The British Empire circa 1848 (the Chartist Period) [19:29-26:57]

-A huge outpouring of human misery [26:58-33:46]

-Culture as a prerequisite for reform [33:47-40:57]

-The social psychology of the New Deal [40:58-45:22]

-A new generation of elites without a culture of reform [45:23-53:48]

-Designing a science of history [53:49-58:05]

-Charismatic Jesus Types [58:06-1:10:48]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

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