In the mid-1990s, the mayor of Istanbul was quoted saying: “democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off”. That mayor is now president and his critics fear he believes Turkey has reached its democratic destination. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power, his consolidation of it, and his ability to shape world events makes him one of the 21st century’s extraordinary leaders. But he is currently at risk of losing his re-election battle as rampant inflation and the mishandling of rescue efforts following an earthquake and its aftershocks wrecked the south of the country. Now we’re faced with the question of whether one of the longest-serving autocrats in Europe’s neighborhood could lose in the forthcoming election. This week we recorded the first of a two part episode on Turkey. This edition covers Erdogan’s rise to power, his ideology, the clash between Kemalists and Islamists and finally (for our Patreons only) a discussion of what could happen when Turks vote this week. Our guests for this deep dive into Turkey and its mercurial president are Birol Baskan, a professor at Georgetown University and non-resident scholar at The Middle East Institute. Professor Baskan has published a number of books including The Nation or the Ummah: Islamism and Turkish Foreign Policy (2021). We also welcomed back Ryan Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is the author of six books, and his most recent work The Last Days of the Ottoman Empire (2023) is available to purchase now and linked in the show notes. The views he expresses here are not those of the Naval Postgraduate School, the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.

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