0:03

It's such a miracle. The

0:06

man of the queen, the king of the brain.

0:08

Wake up and wrap up. Wake up. The

0:12

political

0:12

division in the country, undeniably deep

0:15

right now. A big question on a lot of

0:17

people's minds can Americans come together

0:19

and

0:19

heal. I'm

0:22

Van Jones, and this is

0:24

uncommon ground.

0:28

Welcome

0:29

back to Uncommon Ground. This is a show

0:31

where we're exploring what it takes to make

0:33

meaningful change in a country is as

0:35

divided as our country has become.

0:38

You know, we talk a lot about political

0:40

polarization on the show. That just

0:42

means you on the left and the right are getting further and further

0:44

apart And this has been a deepening

0:47

phenomenon now for years, but

0:49

it's really gotten to the point now where you can't ignore

0:51

it. It's not just that people disagree

0:54

with the opposite party. We sometimes

0:56

see them as our mortal enemies. We're operating

0:58

from a different set of facts. and

1:00

many of us are finding it's hard to even trust within

1:03

our own news feeds because things are just

1:05

so crazy, you know, as we're down

1:07

our own algorithmic rabbit

1:09

holes I call them, you know, when you're looking at your phone,

1:11

you know, you're looking at the stuff that's in your

1:14

feed, but your neighbor's feed may be totally

1:16

different. I want to bring somebody on

1:18

whose job it is to cut through all that

1:20

and to figure out, you know, using

1:23

the top polling data

1:25

and programs and methodologies. Really,

1:28

what do people actually think? What do Republicans

1:30

actually think about anything? What do Democrats actually

1:32

think about So today, I'm talking

1:34

with Kristen Soltis Anderson. She's

1:37

a Republican. She's a millennial. She's

1:39

a founding partner of a research firm

1:41

called Echelon Insights. Part

1:43

of her day to day work includes advising corporate

1:46

leaders, government leaders on polling, on

1:48

messaging, but she's undoubtedly has

1:51

her own view about all this stuff because

1:53

her job is to listen and understand and

1:56

try to capture in an objective,

1:58

realistic way what

1:59

is going on. That is very rare.

2:02

The two groups that were the least likely

2:05

to have someone who was a close

2:07

friend who is of the other

2:09

political

2:09

party, were

2:10

Republicans who think of

2:12

themselves as Trump's supporters first and

2:14

foremost, and sort

2:16

of young progressives if you

2:18

don't have any close friends of

2:21

the other's party, when you

2:23

see an example pop up on

2:25

social media or on the news,

2:27

of someone of the other side doing something

2:29

horrible, saying something horrible,

2:31

being something horrible. It is easy

2:33

to assume that everyone

2:36

else on that team must

2:38

agree with that or hold that view.

2:40

I am blessed to have friends from

2:42

when I was growing up. We're very aggressive

2:45

who I love dearly and and talking

2:47

to them about issues and me being

2:49

able to explain why I believe what I believe

2:52

helps. It doesn't mean I'm persuading them.

2:54

I'd love to think I was, but I'm sure I'm not.

2:57

But at least it helps you keep perspective on

3:00

what does the other side actually think?

3:02

And isn't there a diversity

3:04

of opinions within people who all may wear

3:07

that same label?

3:09

want

3:09

you to listen for how Kristen

3:11

addresses a bunch of stuff, including

3:14

number one, the skepticism a lot

3:16

of people have about pollsters today.

3:18

And now she responds to that. You know, she talks

3:20

about the concerns of people on the political

3:22

right from a a real data

3:25

informed point of view Toward the

3:27

end of our conversation, we talk about how

3:29

we can turn down the temperature across

3:31

the board and maybe have

3:33

a little bit more of a civil

3:35

discussion about the things that we don't agree about.

3:38

She's been very smart about that in our own

3:40

life, and she certainly gets us smarter on

3:42

this podcast. Stay tuned for my

3:44

conversation when we get back with Kristen

3:47

Soltis Anderson.

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4:31

I am very, very glad to get

4:33

a chance to talk with you not

4:36

on TV, which is our usual

4:38

thing, but to actually maybe have a little bit of

4:40

a a deeper and longer conversation here

4:42

on on common ground. You and I actually

4:44

met at a time when you

4:46

were just coming on the scene of this sort

4:48

of young Republican

4:50

pollster speaking up for a new generation of

4:52

conservatives. And, you know, the conservative party

4:55

and movement has gone through a lot of changes since

4:57

then. The democratic party has gone

4:59

through a lot of changes since then as

5:01

well. I wanted to start

5:03

with just you as a poster

5:05

today. Why'd you get started doing

5:07

this stuff and how has the game

5:09

changed? in, you know, twenty sixteen,

5:11

twenty twenty, twenty twenty two, and beyond.

5:14

So

5:14

I love being a pollster. I've been in this industry

5:17

since two thousand and five. It was my

5:19

first drop out of college. It's not

5:21

the thing that I came to Washington

5:23

thinking I wanted to do. I

5:25

wanted to be a speech writer. I wanted to

5:27

be communications professional. I had watched

5:29

way too much West Wing. Yeah. Oh, I

5:31

wanted to be Sam Seaborne. Like, that I

5:33

was one of those people. And

5:35

yet, when I came to Washington, wound

5:38

up getting a job, very entry level

5:40

at a polling firm, and loved it

5:42

because what I found

5:44

so compelling about the field

5:46

is that it's not about my opinions.

5:48

Everybody in Washington has an opinion. So

5:50

many people in politics, they've all got opinions.

5:54

My job is not to be about my

5:56

opinions. My job is to go out and

5:58

listen to other people's opinions.

6:00

When

6:00

Trump

6:01

got a election in twenty sixteen that

6:04

shocked a lot of people because the polls had

6:06

said that it was either nearly

6:08

impossible, totally impossible or completely impossible.

6:11

and yet it happened. What did

6:13

you learn from that experience? And and how do

6:15

you see the, I guess,

6:17

skepticism now that some people have even

6:19

about your profession despite

6:21

your hard work to do it the right way.

6:24

So

6:24

whenever somebody tells me, you know, I don't listen

6:26

to the polls because I think the polls are wrong

6:28

in their fake news. I

6:30

tell them, I don't blame them.

6:32

The one thing I like to remind people of

6:34

is that I I think the impression that

6:37

posterrs go out and try to push

6:39

a false narrative is

6:41

wrong, because think about what our incentives

6:43

are. My incentive is to be right.

6:45

If I had come out in twenty sixteen and

6:47

said, you know, I think Donald Trump is gonna win

6:49

and here's the data that shows it, people would

6:51

have thought I was a

6:52

genius. you know, there's

6:54

a

6:54

strong incentive to get it right.

6:56

No one wants to be out there

6:58

pushing data that they think is

7:00

incorrect to try to further sub narrative

7:02

because At the end of the day, political

7:05

polling, unlike almost every other piece of

7:07

the polling industry. There's a verdict

7:09

of, were

7:09

you right or were you wrong? So

7:11

after the twenty sixteen election, you know, methodologically,

7:14

we learned that by

7:16

sampling the way we were as

7:18

an industry broadly we weren't capturing

7:20

enough voters who didn't have college

7:22

degrees. And

7:23

in previous elections, that hadn't been a big

7:25

deal. It was almost the equivalent of saying, well,

7:27

I didn't have enough people who are handed

7:29

in my sample. Doesn't necessarily

7:31

correlate strongly one way or the other

7:33

with vote, but in twenty sixteen

7:35

it did. What worries me the most

7:37

about twenty twenty four is that in

7:39

twenty twenty pollsters had fixed that,

7:41

they were sampling enough people without college

7:44

degrees We had fought the last

7:46

battle and we'd gotten it right, but

7:48

that didn't necessarily mean everything

7:50

was fixed. And the The good

7:52

news is since then, there have been a

7:54

number of elections where the polls have gotten

7:56

pretty right. In the Virginia governor's race

7:58

for instance, But polls are

8:00

not perfect. And the other big lesson

8:02

I took from twenty sixteen was humility.

8:04

To be very humble about what we

8:06

can know in the face of the

8:08

data. If I get a pullback that

8:10

says somebody is ahead by three points,

8:13

there's a margin of error involved that means

8:16

that in reality, that person could

8:18

be a head by six. They could be

8:20

evenly split. And

8:22

so going on air and confidently saying,

8:25

ah, well, you know, Joe Biden's job approval

8:27

fell by two points last month. He's

8:29

slipping with the public. I mean, that's too

8:31

bold a claim to make off of

8:33

a very small data point. So It

8:35

might make me a less interesting TV guest, but I

8:37

try to be a little more equivocal and

8:39

humble about what any one data point can

8:41

tell us.

8:42

Well, you know, I I think

8:44

that's one reason why you're respected on on

8:46

both sides in the way that you are. And,

8:48

like, I I came over the nineties. It's never

8:50

been this kind of rosy walk in the

8:52

park that everybody wants to pretend it was.

8:54

It's always been tough, but, you know,

8:56

sharp elbows are not the same thing as

8:58

chainsaws. I mean, it just seems like Now

9:01

it's different. But am I am I wrong?

9:03

Do you see that? Does does the polling data

9:05

suggest that the parties are moving apart?

9:07

And if so, what do you make of it? So

9:09

you're not wrong. Back in the nineties,

9:12

there was a lot of polarization

9:14

in congress where you

9:16

had the complete breakdown of

9:19

Republicans and Democrats ever

9:21

crossing the aisle to vote with one another.

9:23

But that was very different than

9:25

polarization in the

9:27

electorate in the public. And we

9:29

still do have that if you look at what

9:31

people's views are on

9:33

the issues. By and large, a lot

9:35

of people who think of themselves as Republicans

9:37

hold some views that you'd consider in

9:39

line with the Democratic Party and

9:41

vice versa. where the polarization

9:43

now comes from, I think is from

9:45

politics bleeding

9:47

into a lot of

9:49

different facets of life to where it feels

9:51

a bit more all consuming.

9:54

And at the same time, people

9:56

feeling more and more

9:58

powerless. in the face of what they

9:59

view as a hostile other

10:02

side. When people feel

10:04

powerless against a powerful

10:06

adversary, they're more

10:08

likely to turn to someone

10:10

who says, I have the answer

10:12

and I'm willing to take extreme

10:14

measures to win. It's not

10:16

that all Republicans believe

10:18

one set of issues and all Democrats

10:20

believe another set of physicians and

10:22

there's no overlap. Instead,

10:24

it's that people believe if the

10:26

other side acquires more power,

10:28

that they will use that power

10:30

to harm you And that

10:32

view that the other side is accumulating

10:34

more and more power, I think is what is

10:36

supercharging our polarization. Look,

10:38

you know, the way that I see it is that

10:40

feel like we actually now have four political

10:42

parties instead of two. I feel like you

10:44

have the the mainstream establishment

10:47

Republicans that you know, are

10:49

pretty hawkish, militarily, pro

10:52

global business, you know, like like

10:54

free trade. They seem to be

10:57

shrinking.

10:57

and this other party, the

11:00

Magna Party, that is,

11:02

you know, hey,

11:05

tariffs are fine with them. Protectionism is

11:07

fine with them. Don't wanna be

11:09

involved in anything overseas isolationism.

11:11

They both call Republicans, it's really two

11:14

different political parties. And certainly on the left, know,

11:16

the corporate Democrats hate

11:20

ALC and Bernie and,

11:22

you know, the younger

11:25

more progressive crowd. I

11:27

think they're corporate mainstream of Democrats,

11:29

frustrated and they have to carry the water for

11:31

all that stuff and especially in in battleground

11:33

elections. And so I just

11:35

wonder, you know, you as a pollster. I mean,

11:37

do you see that there's a there

11:39

seems to be some ideological

11:41

confusion here. The labels don't certainly

11:43

mean the same thing things they used to mean at least in terms

11:45

of policy anymore or or DCA differently?

11:47

There's definitely been an evolution

11:50

of what it means to be a

11:52

Republican, but I think the divides

11:54

within the Republican Party these

11:56

days are less sharply

11:58

ideological than the divides on the Democratic

12:01

side. the divides between

12:03

the two groups of Democrats you talked about

12:05

are very clearly around

12:07

issues. Where on the Republican

12:09

side, I think you'd find even

12:11

those were Republicans who were kind of

12:13

Bush era Republicans

12:15

would still nevertheless express

12:17

a little more hesitancy these days

12:19

to send US troops overseas.

12:21

Because the world's very different than it

12:23

was ten years ago, and frankly, a

12:25

lot of Republicans have seen some of the

12:27

consequences of free

12:29

trade or whether it was, you know,

12:31

aggressive use of American military force

12:33

overseas, you know, there's a little bit more

12:35

immigration hawkishness. you know,

12:37

even among what you might call the establishment side

12:39

of the party. I think the biggest difference

12:42

is more around sort

12:44

of tactics and

12:47

language and posture than

12:49

it is on policy where I

12:51

think on the Democratic side, it's much more

12:53

about an ideological

12:54

gulf between the two

12:59

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I

14:44

do think that hard for it progresses

14:46

to understand that the

14:48

conservatives feel outnumbered.

14:52

And to your point, We jeez. You guys

14:54

you

14:54

got this

14:56

US Senate. You is

14:58

got, you know, states like North

15:00

Dakota would really have many people in them. with

15:02

two senators. California, New York,

15:05

tens of millions of people, same two senators.

15:06

You're you're certainly well represented in the

15:09

senate. The the House, the Supreme Court,

15:11

obviously, Democrats beat

15:13

Republicans, you know, going away by the

15:15

popular vote, most presidential elections, we still

15:17

barely squeak it out in the electoral college. What more do

15:19

you guys because we're looking at it from the political

15:21

point of view and the policy point of view. But

15:23

as you're as you're saying, from a

15:25

cultural point of view, if you're

15:27

sixty year old conservative

15:29

white Christian, you have a very hard

15:31

time just turning the dial on your

15:33

television and finding

15:35

your worldview reflected back to

15:37

you in a an

15:39

affirming way. They feel

15:41

surrounded without a number to overrun and

15:43

under and and disrespect it.

15:45

And in that story, they're the little David's

15:48

up against us as a Goliath's. That

15:50

is the hardest thing for Progressive's understand

15:52

that anybody would think that we're the the the

15:54

Goliath in this story. I did

15:56

a focus group for The New York

15:58

Times a couple of weeks ago

16:00

of eight conservative men.

16:02

And it was less about, what do you

16:05

think about Donald Trump? What do you think about

16:07

immigration? None of that. It was more,

16:09

do you feel there's a place for you

16:11

in society? And

16:13

what was kind of interesting was these men

16:15

broadly said, no, I

16:17

don't feel like there's a place for me in

16:19

society these days. And then there was

16:21

a huge backlash to these

16:23

focus groups because people were saying,

16:25

you know, why are we elevating the

16:27

voices of a bunch

16:29

of men whose voices have

16:31

been the dominant voice

16:33

in in American culture

16:35

for centuries. And just that whole

16:37

discussion was so fascinating because in one

16:39

sense, it was confirming that these

16:41

conservative men's anxieties were

16:43

right. It doesn't mean that they are right

16:45

about their views on society, but

16:47

it it means that their assessment

16:49

of their place in society

16:51

was kind of confirmed by the

16:53

very people who were saying, how

16:55

dare you do a focus group of these men? I just I

16:57

thought that was very fascinating. Well,

16:59

like I I often find myself

17:02

trying to caution my fellow

17:04

progresses. be

17:04

careful that you don't feed what you're fighting.

17:07

Because when you say to

17:09

somebody else, you know,

17:11

your pain doesn't matter a whole bunch to me

17:14

and I'm gonna be relatively

17:16

narrowly self interested. You're creating a

17:18

certain environment. where

17:19

you're not

17:20

that different than people you're fighting. You know, one

17:22

of the things that I have discovered,

17:24

you know, people why are the black people so

17:26

angry? Man, like, you know, it's know, the black

17:28

people are really angry. Why are you guys angry? You

17:31

know, the better question is,

17:33

why are black people so afraid

17:35

that anger is concealing a lot of fear?

17:37

a lot of anxiety. And

17:40

if you respond to the anger with anger, you

17:42

miss the whole point. I think the same thing

17:44

with the conservative white guys are so angry.

17:46

when they have to be angry about, they've been in charge forever,

17:49

you know, geez, you know, share the ball. But, you

17:51

know, I think the question with them

17:53

is, what are you having trouble

17:55

grieving? Like, why are you sad?

17:59

That's a better question because it gets

18:01

to the underlying grief

18:03

The grandkids don't look like the grandparent in

18:06

any US city. And,

18:08

you know, some people feel great about

18:10

that other people don't. but I

18:12

just think that we're in the situation where

18:15

we as progressive feel

18:17

we'll be losing ground somehow

18:19

if we extend a little empathy to

18:22

the people who were asking to or

18:24

insisting give up a bunch of stuff.

18:26

And I don't think we lose anything at all.

18:28

And then, frankly, I think that we make

18:30

it harder on ourselves

18:31

the

18:32

by being so

18:35

tough on the people that we want to

18:37

make a change. Does that show up in the polling data? I

18:39

mean, you you said that, you know, some of these

18:41

guys feel they only have a place in their own

18:43

country. One of the

18:43

the things that struck me in that

18:45

focus group was when my

18:47

co moderator, Patrick Healy, who's the

18:50

deputy opinion editor at the Times asked these

18:52

men, you know, when was the last time you

18:54

made a new friend? And a lot of them

18:56

said, it's not worth it. Like, I'm I'm

18:58

old enough at this point. I've got

19:00

people that have been my friends for

19:02

decades. We don't always agree on everything,

19:04

but they know who I am as a person.

19:06

So, you know, politics aren't gonna break us

19:08

up. But going out and trying to make a new

19:10

friend these days, just so fraught, and there's so many things you have

19:12

to avoid talking about, just doesn't seem

19:14

worth it. And so I actually did

19:17

a survey asking people

19:20

you had to guess, how

19:22

many of your close friends

19:24

do you think are of the other

19:26

political

19:26

party from

19:28

you? and the two groups that were the least likely

19:30

to have someone who was a close

19:33

friend who is of the other

19:35

political party.

19:35

party were

19:36

Republicans who think of themselves as

19:38

Trump's supporters first and foremost, and

19:41

sort of young

19:43

progressives if you don't have any close

19:45

friends of the other's party,

19:47

when you

19:48

see an example pop up

19:50

on

19:50

social media or on the of

19:53

someone of the other side doing something horrible,

19:55

saying something horrible, being

19:57

something horrible. It is easy to

20:00

assume that everyone

20:02

else on that team must

20:04

agree with that or hold that

20:06

view. So, you know, a lot of folks were

20:08

commenting well, how can you expect me be friends with

20:10

someone who doesn't acknowledge my

20:12

humanity? And I think

20:14

is that what you believe all

20:17

Republicans want. I think

20:19

that's an erroneous assumption. I know not

20:21

all Democrats are

20:24

the negative caricature you might see in

20:26

conservative media because I am blessed to

20:28

have friends from when I was growing

20:30

up. We're very progressive.

20:33

who I love dearly and and talking to them

20:35

about issues and me being able to explain

20:37

why I believe what I believe

20:40

helps it doesn't mean I'm persuading them. I'd love

20:42

to think I was, but I'm sure I'm not. But at

20:44

least, it helps you keep perspective

20:47

on What does the other side

20:49

actually think? And

20:51

isn't there a diversity of opinions

20:53

within people who all may wear that same label?

20:55

And

20:55

and I think that that's the key point

20:58

you said the word understand. That's

20:59

the

21:00

word.

21:02

Agreement is hard. I I don't

21:04

agree with myself half the time. Agreement is

21:06

very very hard. On

21:08

the other hand, for me, I have friends

21:11

who are Maga Republicans,

21:13

conservative Republicans, mainstream

21:15

Democrats, left wing Democrats, beyond

21:17

left wing, and I learned so

21:20

much. in my own position that I

21:22

understand myself better and I understand

21:25

the world better. But if I were just trying to

21:27

figure out what these people think based on I don't

21:29

know Fox News and, you know,

21:31

Dan Bongino's podcast. I

21:33

would have the same messed

21:35

up perspective on Republicans. that

21:37

some Republicans have thinking that, you know,

21:39

they can understand what progressives are about by

21:41

just reading the Wall Street Journal or, you know, listening

21:43

to Tucker Carlson. If

21:45

I got a neighbor that I disagree with, but I know where

21:47

she's coming from, I understand

21:50

her, even we disagree because there'll

21:52

be neighbors. if I disagree with her and I don't

21:54

know where the hell she's coming from, it's hard to

21:56

even be neighbors, let alone, you know, to have a

21:58

nation. So I wanna just dig into a

21:59

couple of things I

22:02

wonder if you could give us some feedback on as progresses.

22:04

There are certain topics and certain

22:06

issues that we've taken a strong

22:08

stand on as progresses or at least

22:10

have been labeled as taking a strong stand

22:12

on that I just don't think

22:14

land the way we think they

22:16

land beyond the progressive circles.

22:18

you know, I I just wanna sort you know, defund the police.

22:20

That slogan made me a little bit uncomfortable

22:23

because it seemed to basically be f

22:25

the police with just one more

22:27

syllable in terms of how it landed

22:29

linguistically. And it seems like maybe

22:31

if you look at, you know, who's gonna win

22:33

the, like, here in LA from here, and

22:35

you just went in here from here, that that

22:37

slogan may have done more harm than good. And yet,

22:39

there was enthusiasm for that slogan from

22:41

some parts of the progressive left can

22:43

you help us think about

22:45

some of the things that Democrats are doing

22:47

or position that we're taking

22:50

that just from your point of view, we might

22:52

wanna reconsider if we want to have

22:54

broader appeal. I think

22:55

number one is recognizing that

22:58

there are things that make

23:00

progressives very anxious

23:01

about America. And that that list

23:04

of things is very different

23:06

than what keeps Republicans

23:08

and Conservatives up at night. I've done a lot

23:10

of polling over the last two years of parents

23:13

for a group called the National Parents

23:15

Union. And they wanted to understand

23:17

how were parents weathering

23:19

the COVID-nineteen pandemic.

23:22

You'd lot of progressives were very,

23:24

very, very concerned about the

23:26

spread of COVID-nineteen and believed, look, if

23:28

you are reopening schools, I'm putting kids

23:30

back in classrooms, were putting people

23:31

at risk. And yet it

23:33

was oftentimes kids who were the lowest

23:35

income, kids who had the least advantages

23:38

were the ones who were gonna most hurt by not having

23:40

access to in person instruction. And

23:42

so conservatives for a long time

23:45

were saying, This is a problem. What

23:47

are we doing to our children

23:49

by not putting them back in

23:51

classrooms? And we're accused by

23:53

progressives of not caring about kids,

23:55

wanting to kill kids, you know what have you.

23:57

And now, of course, two years in, we are getting

23:59

data back that is absolutely devastating

24:01

about what has happened to

24:03

kids. And that because of this

24:05

polarization that we talked about earlier, sometimes

24:07

there's not even a willingness to

24:09

acknowledge that the other sides,

24:11

anxieties, and concerns might

24:14

be valid, that you're concerned,

24:16

that online school just might not work out

24:18

as well as in person school for a lot of kids

24:20

and that's a trade off we should have an honest

24:22

conversation about. That's the

24:24

sort of thing where If you say,

24:26

nope, I don't want to acknowledge this as

24:28

a problem at all, how dare you

24:30

even mention it, you suddenly

24:32

have a lot of voters in the middle who

24:34

go, well, I'm a little worried about that too. And so if

24:36

the only person who's gonna talk about

24:38

it are the Republicans, does

24:40

that mean I'm a Republican? I

24:43

think crime is another example of

24:45

this where, you know, you might

24:47

be somebody in the middle who, you

24:49

know, you think that

24:51

black lives matter, and you you

24:53

support the idea of making sure that

24:55

people who are unarmed and are shot

24:57

by police that there is justice

24:59

there. And yet, you've also

25:01

begun to hear of more car jsavings

25:03

in your city or what have you. And and

25:05

you think, is even acknowledging

25:08

this problem something that only

25:10

one side wants to do, I'm worried

25:12

about it. So if only Republicans are

25:14

gonna talk about it, I

25:16

guess does that make me a Republican? So

25:18

I think voters in the

25:20

center have begun to look a little more

25:22

like Republicans, not

25:24

because voters in the center are

25:26

Donald Trump build the wall,

25:28

etcetera types. But if they feel like

25:30

their concern just in

25:33

general is dismissed as

25:35

irrational, well, what else are they gonna turn?

25:37

I often

25:38

say, I disagree with the policies on

25:40

the right, you know, pretty uniformly and

25:42

and pretty strong and progressive.

25:45

but there is, in my

25:47

experience, a little bit more

25:49

room to try

25:51

to ask tough questions about some of the

25:53

the newfangled thinking. And

25:55

if you are

25:57

on the left is

25:58

less room. And so I think

25:59

when

25:59

there's less room, there's less people.

26:02

But I wonder what you think about our friends

26:04

on the right. There does seem to be this

26:06

move for the conservative

26:09

party to try to become the party of the

26:11

multiracial working class, which is

26:13

to move rightward on

26:15

some of the cultural issues but

26:17

to call it parents rights, you

26:19

know, or they're not saying that they're opposed

26:21

to transgender folks, but they

26:24

do say, hey, parents rights on that stuff.

26:26

So I think that the all of the moves

26:28

to the right on culture, they've marketed pretty

26:30

well as parents rights or something else. But they

26:32

also seem to be moving left on economics,

26:34

the anti big business, you know, pro tariffs, the anti

26:37

globalization, the anti globalization. Right?

26:39

That seems to be a formula they may

26:41

think is working for them. But

26:43

but they

26:43

sure have alienated

26:45

and pissed off a bunch of

26:47

people, the MAGA crowd. And

26:49

the the level

26:51

of fear that I hear from

26:54

Democrats

26:54

about democracy and rule

26:55

of law, the level

26:58

of concern, that I

26:59

hear from Democrats about

27:01

the rise of white nationalism and

27:03

the and

27:04

race related violence.

27:06

is really

27:07

high.

27:08

And I wonder if you talk

27:10

to your Republican friends

27:13

and colleagues, what are they

27:15

getting right and wrong? And from a polling

27:17

point of view, where are there some dangers for for

27:19

them if they try to build a a

27:21

governing coalition? I of

27:22

the biggest challenges Republicans

27:24

are going to face is that Republicans

27:26

by and large really

27:29

still like Donald Trump. I mean, he's

27:31

he's viewed quite favorably among

27:34

Republicans. As long as he

27:36

remains the figurehead

27:38

of the party, he brings

27:40

with him enough sort

27:42

of baggage and enough focus

27:45

on the wrong things that

27:47

it it does make it harder

27:49

for Republicans to be able

27:51

to continue to build that

27:53

kind of coalition that you

27:55

were just talking about that is a little more

27:57

economically centrist, that

27:59

is a little more socially conservative,

28:01

but but more multiracial as

28:03

well. Now granted Donald Trump

28:05

was at the top of the ticket when Republicans

28:07

made big gains in South

28:09

Florida, Central Florida, South Texas back

28:11

in twenty twenty, and and

28:13

some of those gains look to be solidified and built upon in twenty twenty

28:16

two. But the Republican Party's problem is

28:18

that on the one hand, there's

28:20

no sense of like who or

28:22

what comes after

28:24

Donald Trump, but we also know that the

28:26

vast majority of Americans don't

28:28

necessarily want Donald Trump to run for president. Again,

28:30

they don't think of him very

28:32

favorably And so think that Republicans

28:34

are not interested in elevating

28:37

voices that are anti

28:39

Trump. But they are okay with voices that

28:41

are just not about Donald Trump. It's

28:43

possible to win a Republican primary even

28:45

if Donald Trump doesn't like you very much. If

28:47

you don't turn your campaign into an I'm

28:49

an anti Trump, never Trump a crusader

28:51

trying to save my party. That's dead on

28:53

arrival in the GOP. But you can say

28:55

I wanna be about other things

28:58

And I think that's the way that Republicans begin to

29:00

turn the page a little bit and

29:03

begin to explore what does

29:05

a post Trump party

29:07

look like. if they're unable to do

29:09

that and it's just maga

29:11

all the way down, I do still

29:13

think you have the generational problems that I've

29:15

been writing about for Caid were

29:17

for a lot of younger voters. Donald Trump is

29:19

just very much not where they're at and they're taking

29:21

up a bigger and bigger and bigger share of

29:24

of the political pie with each

29:26

passing election. So

29:28

it's not sustainable forever for

29:30

the Republican party to be the party of

29:33

Donald Trump. The question is,

29:35

what's the exit strategy? And it's

29:37

not a never

29:39

Trump disavowal there

29:41

a way to build on that kind of

29:43

more economically centrist,

29:45

still socially right of center

29:48

coalition to not alienate

29:50

people? but also not make

29:52

fealty to Donald Trump the price

29:54

of entry. Mhmm.

29:55

That makes sense to me. Do you

29:57

think that the scientists could be

30:00

Trump? So

30:00

when we have tested head to head match ups, Trump

30:03

still wins, but DeSantis at

30:05

least at this point and are way too

30:07

early to take them seriously Republican

30:09

primary polls is out in the

30:11

lead. So,

30:11

DeSantis at

30:12

the moment seems the strongest,

30:15

but I also think we, a

30:17

assume a higher profile for someone like

30:19

Rhonda Santos because you and I live

30:21

in the cable news world every

30:24

time he you know, sneezes down in

30:26

Florida, it gets covered

30:28

on air because people view him as the

30:30

sort of heir parent to Trump. you'd

30:32

be surprised how many Republicans nationwide have have

30:35

a pretty loosely formed view of

30:37

him. Oh, he fights the media. Oh, he

30:39

kept Florida open during COVID, but

30:41

really know that much about him. Get a long way to

30:43

go to

30:43

the twenty twenty four primary. Two

30:45

more questions. One

30:46

should bite and drop out

30:48

When you

30:49

ask voters, do

30:51

you want to see Joe Biden run for president

30:53

again? A majority say no.

30:55

And when you ask Americans, do

30:57

you wanna see Donald

30:58

Trump run for president

31:00

again?

31:00

Americans say no. But when you

31:02

ask Democrats, a majority, not a

31:04

robust majority, but a majority of Democrats

31:06

say sure I'd like to see Biden run again.

31:08

And same thing with the Republican

31:10

side. If both Biden and Trump

31:12

decide to run, are likely to

31:15

see a rematch, at least according to the

31:17

polls at this point, but that's

31:19

also not what most

31:21

Americans would like to have as

31:23

their options. in twenty twenty four. I

31:25

think Democrats have a similar problem to

31:27

Republicans in that, you know, you

31:29

have a candidate that can

31:31

say credibly Hey, I won. I know how to

31:33

win. And for Republicans, that's

31:35

complicated by the fact that so many Republicans

31:37

believe Donald Trump ought to have been the

31:38

rightful winner of the twenty twenty

31:40

campaign. That's whole other can of worms. But

31:42

both Biden and Trump can try to

31:45

claim this mantle of, well, I know how

31:47

to win And in a moment where

31:49

we're so polarized and we're so worried

31:51

about the other side taking

31:53

power, are we okay compromising

31:56

on support a candidate I don't like

31:58

that much because I think they can

31:59

win. That may be the thing

32:02

Biden has going for him It's

32:04

unclear to me who else on the Democratic side can make

32:06

a better claim to say, no,

32:09

no, I'm actually the one that

32:11

knows

32:11

how to win.

32:13

So, like,

32:13

you know, final question just is, how do

32:15

we begin to heal some of this stuff?

32:18

Like, how can we

32:20

start to depolarize some

32:22

of these conversations. I mean, I feel this

32:24

kind of retreat into hostile

32:26

camps. That's the feeling that

32:28

I get. and that

32:30

scares me because

32:32

you know elections can

32:36

resolve things in countries

32:38

like you go vote and people accept the outcome of the vote and you move on,

32:40

you try to govern, you vote again next

32:42

time. Or election, if it's

32:45

contested enough, and

32:47

neither side will concede, suddenly the

32:49

election can be the precursor to

32:51

real chaos. And so I just

32:53

really worry and and

32:55

I wonder Do do you share those worries? And what do you wish

32:57

people were doing more of, Valessa, to try

32:59

to get us back towards something that's

33:01

maybe a little bit more workable as

33:03

a country? I

33:04

I think the rebuilding

33:06

of spaces in our

33:09

society where we can

33:12

put

33:12

down our political arms

33:14

is really important. You know,

33:16

you've watched the politicization of

33:19

churches the politicization of workplaces.

33:21

Places where people used to be

33:23

able to build social bonds and

33:26

perhaps leave their political identities at

33:28

the door, Some of that feels like

33:30

it's been going away lately. And I think

33:32

there is simultaneously a

33:34

heightened anxiety and anger in the public, but

33:36

also an exhaustion. in in the most

33:38

recent survey I did at my firm Echelon, we

33:40

asked people for the qualities they were

33:43

most looking for in leaders and

33:45

in candidates and the number one

33:47

characteristic that almost half of

33:49

respondents said was absolutely necessary,

33:51

was someone who seeks to unify

33:54

the country. So I think there's an

33:56

appetite there for

33:58

leaders who unify for the

33:59

creation and or reclaiming of

34:02

spaces where people don't have to

34:04

have their political armor on

34:07

constantly. I think the demand is out there. It's

34:09

just a question of Is any

34:11

leader going to step up to the plate and push for it? And it doesn't have to

34:13

be somebody running for president, but are you as

34:15

a leader of a church? Are you as a

34:17

leader of a workplace? Are

34:19

you as the leader of a social club or community

34:22

going to push to try to create a

34:24

space where people can

34:26

all come together and focus on

34:28

community and not politics that that

34:31

rebuilding those bonds as we

34:33

become more fragmented and

34:36

isolated I think is how you build foundation of lot stuff

34:38

that we've talked about. Howard Bauchner:

34:39

I think that that's right.

34:41

And I just

34:43

really appreciate you in the work that you do. None

34:46

of us are gonna do well without good data, without

34:48

good information, without good polling, and you're one

34:50

of the best, and we appreciate you being

34:52

oncoming ground. Thank you,

34:54

Van. We see

34:55

the beauty of hope.

35:00

That's scary. is so beautiful. Those

35:02

who

35:02

become American citizens love this

35:05

country even more. and that's why

35:07

the statue of liberty lifts her

35:10

land to welcome them to the

35:12

golden building.

35:21

Do you think

35:24

the

35:24

people think that pollsters are up

35:26

to no good and and on some

35:28

crazy conspiracy. I think it's very hard to say that she's that way, and

35:30

I think her argument that most pollsters are

35:33

trying to get it right I

35:35

found that to be very compelling. So let's get to talk to

35:38

somebody who's got an objective view because she's talked

35:40

to enough people, pulled enough people that she

35:42

can really see both sides, and

35:44

she's also a good strong

35:46

republican. I think that's the

35:48

goal. Having enough information about

35:50

everything that's going on that you can

35:52

have your own opinion, but understand the

35:54

other side. should be

35:56

the ideal. And I think

35:58

that she points

35:59

in that

36:01

direction. I can't tell you how shocking it is to me

36:03

whenever I actually sit down and listen

36:06

to a conservative podcast

36:08

or an ultra far left blog

36:10

and realize, oh, okay, there's a very

36:12

different set of sources and

36:14

data. There are reports I

36:17

hadn't know about their news events

36:19

that weren't covered my favorite outlets. All that

36:22

stuff is shocking. This is what I

36:24

discovered and and

36:26

consume that media, I think it makes me stronger

36:28

in my own point of view,

36:30

and I think it also makes

36:33

me a better problem solver for the people I care about. I just

36:35

think we gotta recognize that the other

36:38

side are human beings

36:40

too, which is not to say that

36:42

we should let them win

36:44

or excusable.

36:46

But it's just to say, maybe we should be asking

36:48

different questions. Why are

36:50

people doing with their feeling? And if

36:52

the answer every time is it just evil bigots, that probably is

36:55

not a sufficient answer. I think we've

36:57

got to stop accepting that

37:00

the default assumption that the other side is just a bunch of terrible

37:02

people can't be right because that's

37:04

their assumption about us, whatever side

37:06

you're on. The assumption is

37:10

you're a terrible person, that all of the things that you're saying

37:12

are just pretexts for your own greed and

37:14

meanness and laziness and stupidity

37:16

and evil. So I don't think

37:19

that's true about the people on my team. I

37:21

don't think we have to believe it's true about everyone

37:23

on the other

37:26

team. So I think that we need

37:28

bigger hearts smart with no heart, it can get you some dangerous

37:30

places. I want to

37:31

understand the people in

37:34

this country. people on this country the

37:36

ones I like, the ones I don't like, the ones I agree with, the ones I don't agree with, the

37:38

ones I vote against, the ones I vote for, I

37:40

just wanna have a better understanding.

37:43

because my suspicion is that with

37:45

better understanding, I'll do a better job at getting

37:47

to better answers. And with

37:50

better understanding, might only have to fight you on three things instead of And

37:52

I'd frankly rather fight you on three than thirty because

37:54

the time I'm not fighting you on the other twenty seven,

37:56

we might be able to work together to get something

38:00

done. And so that's a point of, I think,

38:02

posters like Kristen, is definitely the point

38:04

of this podcast. So thank you for

38:06

listening this time, and we'll look forward to talking to you

38:08

again, Wilson. is Dan Jones

38:10

on common ground.

38:13

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