Institute for the Study of the AmericasSpeakers: Dr Adam Quinn (Birmingham) and Professor Iwan Morgan (ISA) will be arguing the case for decline. Professor Mick Cox (LSE) and Dr Nick Kitchen (LSE) will be arguing the case against declineThis question has been asked repeatedly since the United States emerged as a world power at the dawn of the twentieth century. As the last century drew to an end, the answer seemed to be a resounding “No” because the United States bestrode the post-Cold War world in what appeared to be a new unipolar era. As the twenty-first century dawned it became conventional to speak of a new American empire.Some ten years on, however, the “declinist” thesis has gained renewed strength. America is leaving Iraq amidst doubts whether it can claim “mission accomplished” and is looking for an exit from Afghanistan without the assurance of total victory. The emergence of new powers, led by China, suggests that the present century will not be an “American century,” as was the last one. The U.S. economy is in the doldrums. Last but not least, the US faces a huge problem of sovereign debt growth that seems likely to constrain its global power and prosperity.Such indicators suggest that America is finally in the decline that has long been predicted. On the other hand the US has always shown capacity to renew itself in the face of crisis. On the global stage, is there truly any country that can replace it as “the essential nation” (Madeleine Albright’s phrase). Finally, we should take account that the prophets of American decline have always been wrong in the past. As Bill Clinton recently observed, “People have been betting against America for 200 years and they always lost their money.”