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live from the betting capital of the world.

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It's Wager Talk with Teddy Covers

0:42

at Ralph Michaels

0:51

day Here. It's in city and

0:54

welcome to the Wager Talk Weekend

0:56

preview edition on the Sports Grade TV network.

0:58

This is your sports Central

1:01

for betters. I'm Ted Sabranski,

1:03

a k a. Teddy Covers at Teddy

1:05

Underscore Covers on Twitter, joined by

1:07

my co host and good friend or Ralph Michaels

1:10

at cal Sports LV on Twitter.

1:13

Will be joined later in the show by Arthur

1:15

to Caesar from the Link Sports Book

1:17

right here in Las Vegas, one of the Caesar's properties.

1:20

We'll just toss We'll discuss with him about what's

1:22

going on in town and what's not going on in

1:24

town. We'll talk future book wagers, how those

1:26

are gonna be graded, how that was gonna be dealt with, and

1:29

what's going on in Vegas right now. But

1:32

before we get to Arthur to Caesar, before

1:34

we get to any of the numerous

1:38

sports and sports betting related topic,

1:41

Um, this is a wtf

1:43

just happened moment Ralph. None

1:45

of us have ever been through anything like this. We're

1:48

kind of an uncharted territory

1:50

here. What's your take on the

1:53

last forty eight hours where

1:55

basically life in the United

1:57

States has changed pretty

2:00

dramatically, not just for sports

2:02

bettors but especially for

2:04

sports fans and sports bettors. Yeah,

2:08

unprecedented, tennant, you know, the no champions

2:10

and and the way the season stopped and slowed

2:13

down. You know, you know, is

2:15

it best for the country absolutely to be proactive.

2:18

So you know, it's an approach that

2:20

I think the dominoes fell once

2:23

the NBA made the move, which they needed

2:25

to make with a player being there. Um,

2:27

you know, it was just that domino's effects.

2:30

So uh, it's something that

2:32

no one has an edge. We're all living through

2:34

it. It's something that will have to deal with but

2:37

we're a strong nation. We'll get by and sports

2:39

will be with us around the corner. And

2:42

I mean that's the truth of it. Okay, there are no sports

2:44

right now. There won't be sports for the rest of March April.

2:47

We'll see what this

2:50

will not be or end all for

2:53

sports or sports betting. We'll talk about

2:55

a little bit more at the break. Let's get a live

2:57

new ductat right now for that war. Thank

3:06

you, Jenny with your

3:08

sports grade news update.

3:10

Augusta National has announced the Masters

3:13

will be postponed. It was set

3:15

to take place April nine through the

3:17

twelfth. That is now the fifth tournament

3:19

postponed by the PG eight Tour. No

3:22

word yet on what and

3:24

or if they will make up the Masters

3:26

just yet. So NFL news, the

3:28

Ravens have put the franchise tag

3:30

on pass rusher Matthew ju

3:33

Don. This will keep the outside

3:35

linebacker on the Ravens for

3:37

at least one more season. The seven

3:40

year old had a season high nine

3:42

and a half sacks last year,

3:44

and he was fourth most quarterback hits

3:46

in the NFL with thirty three.

3:49

Of The tag on Judan will cost between nineteen

3:51

sixteen and eighteen million dollars.

3:55

Other cancelations, the

3:57

NASCAR five hundred that was going to be

3:59

played raced in Atlanta,

4:02

that is postponed at Atlanta Motor

4:04

Speedway as well as home said Miami

4:06

Speedway next weekend. They

4:08

will make a decision on the future races

4:10

in NASCAR after that time. And

4:12

this goes along with Major League Baseball postponing

4:15

at least for two weeks the start of the season,

4:17

which was set to begin March. And

4:20

it goes along with La Liga, the

4:22

Premier League, all canceling for

4:25

now their games. La Liga set

4:27

to resume April third,

4:29

but stay tuned on that. Everything is fluid

4:32

as we talk right now. And this goes with

4:34

March Mannus being canceled for the men and

4:36

Women's n C double A, actually canceled

4:39

all winter and spring sports.

4:42

Unprecedented move as you guys talked about

4:45

unprecedented times. Right now, we

4:47

are dealing with one other note.

4:49

Jazz Center Rudy Golbert has

4:51

apologized first careless quote actions.

4:54

This after he was diagnosed

4:57

with the Corona virus on Monday.

4:59

He was seen touching microphones and

5:02

sharing um hull

5:04

with players. Unlike Rudy Gobert

5:06

apologizes for his careless action. That

5:09

is your sports scrid news update, not

5:11

back to Teddy and Ralph. Guys shuts

5:17

down the NBA, shuts down the world of sports.

5:19

And that was the domino, you know, I mean what

5:21

happened on Wednesday night. Of course I

5:24

was an action, or it would have been an action

5:27

on Utah versus okay se

5:29

had that game not been canceled. But

5:33

when you say, you know, what was the straw that

5:35

broke the camel's back is Rudy Gobert.

5:38

Um And boy, this guy. I mean, I

5:40

honestly, Ralph, I feel a little bit and it

5:42

sounds strange to say I feel bad

5:44

for the guy, and I feel bad for the guy like

5:46

this. Okay, we've all talked about

5:49

in the previous month. We've all

5:51

made coronavirus jokes. We've all been like,

5:54

yeah, yeah, yeah, whatever. And

5:56

in general, I want to keep

5:58

things light. I don't want to you

6:00

know, I'm a joker. I'm a practical joker.

6:03

You know. That's what makes this show fun, That's

6:06

what makes Rudy Gobert fun. In

6:08

this case, it had devastating circumstances.

6:11

I feel horrible for Gobert, but

6:14

that's his personality, just being a goofball, you

6:17

know, and now, oh, by the way, you're a goofball to kill sports.

6:20

What do you think of Rudy Gobert? Do you think he's a victim

6:23

again he's sick. Yeah,

6:26

you know, I have to imagine Teddy

6:28

that, you know, him joking

6:30

around and touching people and doing

6:33

what he did. I have to believe

6:35

that it would have been contacted anyway.

6:37

I mean, tol's touching a ball, sweating

6:40

on a court. You know, didn't

6:42

did he? Did he make

6:45

it happen? Well, I don't know. It happened,

6:47

and he joked about it happening, and therefore

6:49

it happened. But I have to believe it would

6:51

have been a case anyway that it would have got

6:54

transferred. So yeah, I feel bad for him.

6:56

It's one of those people you get caught in the cookie jar making

6:59

that joke, and when it comes to fruition, you

7:01

really do look like an idiot. Yeah,

7:04

I mean, you know, it doesn't look good for him,

7:06

not good for his career long do you have any not good for how

7:09

many elbows to the face he's gonna take, you

7:11

know, And again he's talking about messing

7:13

with people's money. That's their paychecks.

7:16

Um, you know there will be consequences from Gobert

7:18

in that regard. But with the Masters

7:20

being postponed today, and that's you

7:22

know, the one of the last remaining dominoes,

7:25

what do we have left. There's UFC

7:28

in Brazil, there's Bellator

7:30

two forty one in Connecticut. This weekend,

7:32

we have NASCAR in Atlanta. There's NASCAR

7:35

futures to win the NASCAR Cup. There's

7:37

the German bundes League that's still holding

7:40

gayses. That is the Mexico Premier Division lines

7:42

rough for this weekend. Same story for the Russian Premier

7:44

League and the Turkish Super

7:47

League soccer. There's futures

7:49

for the you for Earl eurow

7:52

and for the championships, the champions league

7:54

winners. And then you have darts, you

7:57

have horses, you have cricket matches

7:59

and rug be This is

8:01

not the typical betting

8:04

uh typical betting

8:06

menu for American

8:08

bettors. Anything in there

8:11

that you know anything about Ralph and through the manicamping.

8:14

Let me make two corrections, Teddy on

8:17

our news coverage, you may have taken your microphone

8:19

out. They just canceled the NASCAR in Atlanta.

8:22

And the next and the next few weeks. So

8:25

that is out. Looking at the horse

8:27

racing Faremont Park has

8:29

canceled, Golden gate Fields has canceled,

8:32

and in California, New York, where you're

8:34

not allowed to have over two fifty people congregated,

8:37

I'm sure there's gonna be more tracks canceling

8:39

as well. Sure, which

8:41

leaves us with darts. You

8:43

know, there's there's Australian cricket, there's Australian

8:46

rugby. The bottom line is there's

8:48

not a lot for US

8:51

bettors to get involved with right now. And

8:54

what does this mean for Las Vega? Go on? I'm sorry,

8:56

Ralph. You know we

8:59

talk about how people sometimes

9:01

have an issue and can't take a break sports

9:04

betting, my god, by

9:06

all means, do not bet on darts or cricket.

9:08

You know nothing about it. Just go buy

9:10

a lottery ticket if you want to throw that money

9:12

away, take the break, reassess

9:15

what you're doing, start working on your football

9:17

numbers, start working on your basketball

9:19

numbers. And a break for gambling isn't

9:22

a negative for anyone in a short

9:24

period of time. Obviously, those like

9:27

you and me that do it for a living. If it's

9:29

a very short period, we're gonna be fine. If it's

9:31

an extended period, then we'll struggle

9:33

like everyone else. But take the break,

9:36

enjoy the break, refresh, do

9:39

those things that you haven't done in the past. Hell,

9:41

read a book, go do something. But do

9:43

not throw money on on darts

9:46

and cricket because it's the only thing to bet

9:48

on. What about UFC, man,

9:50

everyone's got. If you're

9:52

a UFC better and you're betting UFC,

9:55

I have no issues with that. Continue doing

9:57

what you're doing. If you followed horses

9:59

in your bet horses, I have no problems.

10:01

But just don't jump into a just

10:04

don't stop jump into a fill gap just

10:06

to try to get some action down. So

10:09

the numbers for

10:12

Nevada are pretty substantial.

10:16

The basketball betting handle for March

10:19

two thousand, nineteen was just shy

10:21

of five hundred million dollars in

10:23

the state of Nevada. In previous

10:26

years has been estimated that was

10:28

on n C Double A tournament game. There's about three d

10:30

and fifty million from last year.

10:32

Sports books got to keep thirty

10:34

six point five million of that a year ago

10:37

here in Nevada that seven point three.

10:40

There's no March madness. This year, And

10:43

that's just from the sports betting point

10:46

to the equation. There's also so much

10:48

more than that when it comes to visitors to Vegas,

10:51

casino revenue, restaurant revenue,

10:53

et cetera. But from a sports betting

10:55

standpoint, I mean half

10:58

a million dollars and lost wager in

11:00

Nevada, that's just a tip of the iceberg.

11:04

Oh. I completely think if you know, the one

11:06

thing that's probably the worst thing for the Vegas

11:08

economy, Teddy, are

11:11

the conventions canceling because hotels

11:13

get premium dollars for those, the restaurants

11:15

are filled, they're paying for those space,

11:17

and it's bringing those people in with the airline.

11:19

So I think the convention business the

11:22

number one thing that's gonna hurt Vegas the most.

11:25

D a short term, this town is gonna

11:27

be in trouble period. But

11:30

if we're talking about thirty days, sixty days,

11:32

we can handle it. We're talking about six months,

11:35

nine months a year, that'll

11:37

be a very different story. Stay

11:39

on the grid what you're talking to line

11:53

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11:55

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12:00

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12:03

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12:13

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12:15

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12:18

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12:21

is sports Crade, Get off the grid.

12:34

So for the play. Well,

12:37

when I were talking about some of the economic

12:39

impacts here in Las Vegas, I

12:41

got some quotes from some of these

12:43

sports book directors that I want to bring up right

12:45

now talking about this particular week.

12:47

John Murray, the executive director for

12:50

the super Book at the Westgate, a frequent

12:52

guest on this show. His quote,

12:55

it's our busiest week of the year in

12:58

terms of ticket counts and crowds. That's

13:00

our busiest week of the whole year, the first week of the

13:02

n C Double A tournament. It's a big concern,

13:05

but every sports work in the country is in the same

13:07

boat. There's nothing we can do to control

13:09

it. We're just hoping for the best while keeping the

13:11

safety of our guests, our staff and everyone

13:13

involved is our number one priority.

13:17

And that makes perfect sense. That's all they

13:19

can do is let

13:22

you know, Uh, we'll do whatever we

13:24

can. But we're talking about the biggest week end of the

13:26

year in Las Vegas. That's

13:28

a pretty big loss in terms of revenue.

13:31

And it's not just Vegas. It's Jersey, it's Pennsylvania,

13:33

it's Mississippi, Louisiana, it's all around

13:35

the country. Think about poor Michigan.

13:38

They got sports betting. Nine hours later

13:40

sports are canceled. I

13:42

mean, that's such a Michigan thing to have, such

13:44

a Detroit thing to happen. Uh. They

13:47

we finally got our first legalized wager.

13:49

Let's get a bunch of bets down. Oh sports

13:51

canceled? Um? Do

13:55

you agree with that assessment? You know, a couple of months

13:57

is not gonna be that big a deal. If this turns into six or nine,

13:59

it be a huge deal. Yeah,

14:02

I agree, And you know it's gonna again.

14:06

It's not as if though there's certain areas

14:08

having to deal with it, we all have to deal with it. And you

14:11

know, it's much better again, I'll say

14:13

it again that the leagues

14:15

are proactive than have an

14:17

epidemic break out tenfold

14:20

worse than it was because we didn't do anything.

14:22

So everyone just do the right thing, everyone

14:24

stay healthy, and you know, problems

14:27

solved in a few weeks. If everyone does the

14:29

right thing and the problems are solved and we get back

14:31

to it, so again, a little restpite

14:33

never heard anybody. Yeah, that would

14:36

make Rudy Gobert a hero. You

14:38

know, you gotta go into because no one was paying attention

14:40

to this before Rudy Gobert, and now everyone's

14:42

paying attention to it. And if this gets solved

14:45

quickly and relatively easily,

14:47

and relatively you know, without mass

14:49

pandemic across the country. We

14:52

got to give the guy credit because otherwise this

14:54

would have gone on weeks, maybe months before

14:59

definitive action was taken.

15:02

There's a lot of questions about what's gonna

15:04

happen with bets that have been made, futures,

15:07

props, future, whether

15:10

it comes to to win something or whether it comes to

15:12

season wins. I'm gonna

15:14

go through some of the quotes from things that I've tracked

15:17

down over the course in the last twenty four hours.

15:19

Let's start with Caesar's Entertainment.

15:21

Of course, we'll have Arthur to Caesar from the Link Sports Book,

15:23

one of the Caesar's properties joining us in our

15:26

next segment. But when it comes to futures.

15:29

The quote from Kevin Fulmer, the VP for

15:31

Caesar's we're waiting until leagues

15:33

either canceled the season or

15:36

declare a winner now

15:38

season. Win total bets the over under

15:40

propositions in the number of games that team is gonna win you in

15:42

the regular season. Those rules

15:44

vary from book to book. Most

15:47

books, for example, for n b A, you have to

15:49

play at least eighty one games. Many

15:51

books you have to play all eighty two games. Those

15:54

bets likely to be refunded

15:56

because this season is not likely

15:59

to include with eighty two

16:01

games. No matter what happens when

16:04

it comes to who's gonna win at all the future bets,

16:07

they'll still get paid out assuming somebody

16:10

eventually wins the title, right, Ralph,

16:12

And that the case absolutely,

16:14

And you know, I think anyone that bet any

16:17

type we're gonna talk baseball today obviously,

16:19

but any type of m v P home

16:21

run when the you know, when the division

16:24

the win the division ones, I don't know, but like

16:27

you said, the win totals are gonna

16:29

have to get readjusted. So you know,

16:31

I'm sure if you better win total

16:33

and they're not gonna play the first two weeks of the season

16:35

and just skip those games and shorten the season.

16:38

Then those are gonna be invalid and

16:40

you're gonna have to rebet it with a new number when

16:42

it gets posted exactly.

16:45

Uh. You know, what you'll see is a lot of you.

16:48

You'll see a lot of tickets getting validated.

16:50

Good number, bad number, doesn't matter. There'll

16:53

be new numbers to post once

16:56

we start to see you, you know, when we're

16:58

on the other side of this curve that I

17:00

was expecting in terms of corona

17:02

of virus um uh

17:05

COVID nineteen UH diagnoses.

17:08

Now Uh, here's from William

17:11

Hill. Okay, they're saying that they're

17:13

continuing to take bets on odds to win

17:15

the Eastern and Western Conference. Uh.

17:18

Caesar's has halted betting on

17:20

NBA futures on events like

17:23

the Super Bowl in the World Series. They're

17:25

still on the board at most sports

17:28

books, you know. Um. Quote

17:31

from UH from Kevin

17:33

Fullmer, the vice president for Caesar's, again

17:36

saying there will be futures available to bet,

17:39

but not a lot. Let's

17:42

be realistic when it comes to you

17:44

know, windows open encounters being full. Most

17:47

sports books likely to be one window

17:50

right now. There's not that much to betta.

17:53

You know. Absolutely. One thing, Teddy that

17:55

I'll tell you is, um, you

17:58

know, there's gonna be much sharper

18:00

numbers when you come back because the markets

18:03

have been bent into people know what the public

18:05

likes. So when you see the new numbers

18:07

come out, you have to remember there's not going to be as

18:09

much value. And then something else,

18:11

you know, we're we're gonna talk about some baseball futures

18:14

here. Something I just looked up real quick.

18:17

Let's say they just skipped the first two

18:19

weeks of the season and say we're gonna shorten the

18:21

season. We're gonna forget those games.

18:24

I started looking and the team that

18:26

pops out to me that would would benefit

18:28

the most the St. Louis Cardinals.

18:30

They have seven games with the Dodgers,

18:33

three road games at Milwaukee, and

18:35

three road games at the Cubs. So we'll

18:38

have to see how much a schedule like

18:40

that would change the team's futures, where

18:42

if you're St. Louis and you're missing seven games

18:44

with the Dodgers, that's a big benefit to

18:47

your season win total with the percentage

18:49

of games that would be left. But sure

18:52

is I mean there's no question.

18:54

And that's one of those interesting disparities

18:57

that could create some opportunities

19:00

in an MLB marketplace, because

19:02

let's be real, these numbers are gonna get rushed up there.

19:05

And if you find, you

19:07

know, the St. Louis

19:09

Cardinals in particular, UH lose

19:12

four series against quality foes, that

19:14

means of the four series against quality foes, that won't

19:17

be factored into that number. So we'll see

19:19

it'd be very interesting to see how this marketplace

19:21

comes back and when it comes back, and

19:23

again, we do expect all

19:25

of this to come back. This is temporary.

19:28

This is not the end of all sports forever,

19:31

or all sports betting forever. Whether it's

19:33

a month, whether it's too whether it's

19:35

six, we'll be here.

19:37

Let's talk about what prop swap is doing. I thought this was

19:39

really interesting because of course prop swap one

19:42

of the as a company that allows people

19:45

to buy and sell future wagers, which

19:48

is, you know, allows you to cash in on

19:50

something without the team actually winning, allows someone else to try

19:52

to get a big score. The

19:55

quote, you know, this cancelation has left everyone

19:57

in uncharted territory. We appreciate everyone's

20:00

patients, UH, prop swaps funneling

20:02

me different from a sports book. What customers

20:04

purchase tickets are not buying from the company, but they're

20:06

buying from another individual. We're

20:09

calling on our community of sellers to return the profits

20:12

collected from their college basketball sales this

20:14

year, and he'll make the buyers on prop smot

20:16

Coal whole. Call it a good carm

20:18

up, but we will leave in times like these, profits to

20:21

be the last thing on anyone's minds.

20:23

Sell us your chooesday partner. This will be compensated as

20:25

such. What do you think of that? Do you think people are actually

20:27

going to if they made future

20:29

book purchases at props walking, they'll give

20:31

that money back? Or does no one have any money to give

20:33

back anymore? And we're all broke now, you

20:36

know my buddies like, well, we're all gonna be broken sick

20:38

for the next year, so let's deal with it. Is

20:41

this one of those circumstances where prop swaps

20:43

doing the right thing, or is this one of those circumstances

20:46

where hey, sorry, buyer, beware, Well

20:49

I'm gonna say this. The right thing would

20:51

be for props swap to automatically make

20:54

the buyer whole and them

20:56

worrying about the seller paying, not putting

20:58

the onus on the seller. They're the company

21:01

that did what they're doing. They need to

21:03

have insurance for this, they need to plan it. I don't

21:05

know. The guys are prop Swap and they do a good job, and

21:07

I'm not calling them out, but they

21:09

cannot come out and say, hey, it's up

21:11

to the seller to make the person hole. It's your

21:13

company, it's your responsibility. You

21:15

have to plan these things, and running

21:18

a business sometimes has risk for that. So

21:20

I would expect prop Swap to make the buyer

21:23

hole. And if the seller wants to

21:25

give them moneys in lieu of something in return,

21:27

that's fine. Yeah, they're

21:30

they're quote from for our part props returning

21:33

of our revenue made on any march Manness sales during

21:35

the nineteen two nineteen

21:38

two thousand twenty season.

21:41

So Ralph I got a whole bunch

21:43

of discussion, a whole bunch of numbers up for

21:47

MLB futures, and

21:49

a lot of it right now is a little bit premature. You know, we

21:51

still have wind totals. We have odds to win the division, we

21:53

have odds to win the league's we have odds to win the World

21:56

Series. Is there any

21:58

team in particular that is stood out to

22:00

you over the course of the last twenty

22:02

four hours that may benefit from

22:05

this or that may hurt

22:07

hurt from when you talked about St. Louis as being a team

22:10

that just lost uh

22:13

four tough series, you know, or he's not gonna

22:16

play, assuming that that is the case that they don't

22:18

play the first two weeks of the season. Is

22:21

there a team like the Cardinals in

22:23

either league that stands out in that regard? You

22:26

know, I followed the Indians. Obviously I would

22:28

impt them, as you know, they weren't

22:30

in my mind to bet them. But you know, you

22:32

were going to start the season without Carrasco and Clevinger.

22:34

You're one and two pitchers are gonna start off the first

22:36

few weeks on the I L and

22:39

all of a sudden, that puts you in perspective where

22:41

they may be healthy. So any team

22:43

that has those injuries, devastating

22:46

injuries the first couple of weeks of the season and

22:48

now may have an entire roster healthy

22:50

when the season starts. I think our teams

22:52

you're gonna have to look at individually, and

22:55

that's something that I was talking about in the NBA when

22:58

you talk about which team's bet if

23:00

it from you know, again,

23:02

nobody benefits, but which teams have a chance to

23:05

to get better because

23:07

of the layoff? And boy, team like the

23:10

Boston Celtics stood out to me a team that had

23:12

key injuries. Oh yeah, they haven't had their four best

23:14

players on the floor I think like twenty five minutes

23:16

all year, and now they may have that. So

23:19

Boston a team that could be

23:22

undervalued in the markets coming back. The

23:24

team like the Brooklyn Nets, and again they're

23:26

two und to one to win the title. They're not even sure to make the

23:29

playoffs. But if

23:31

this drags on a couple of months, who knows the way the Nets

23:33

have Kevin Durant back in play. They

23:35

have Durant and Kyrie and all of a sudden, there's

23:37

two shot is now a twelve

23:39

to one shot. Um. So there may well

23:42

be opportunities like that in

23:44

the NBA as well as

23:46

in Major League Baseball. Totally

23:50

agree. You know, it'll be interesting to see

23:52

what players potentially might come back

23:54

that may have not come back. But you know, again,

23:57

we can't really decide anything positive

24:00

that are negative until we have a firm date

24:02

of when the season will start, how many games

24:04

they'll play, and when the playoffs will start.

24:06

We'll be right back after this break from

24:09

wager talk on the Sports Grid.

24:13

Are you ready for the nation's first and only

24:15

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24:17

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24:19

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24:21

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24:52

welcome back to Wait you're talking

24:54

here in the Sports Grade TV never an Arcus Saser

24:57

from the Link Sports Book will be joining us at the moment

25:00

early whatever. You to get them on the battle door right now

25:03

here in just a minute. Um

25:06

that said, I mean Caesar still has a Lignes

25:08

up for all of MLB. They have win

25:10

totals right now to win the divisions. All

25:12

of that. Ralph, I'm looking at what you said earlier

25:14

this morning or

25:16

anything there that stood out to you. St. Louis

25:19

two to one to win that division? Do you want to make that bet?

25:21

Now? Yeah?

25:23

You know, the one team that that I looked

25:25

at is you know right now, I

25:27

like the Tampa Bay Rays. Um.

25:30

You know, I think with the pitching staff they have, the

25:33

manager they have, of the defense

25:35

they have, Uh, Tampa. The

25:37

Tampa's tea is to me as my number

25:39

one team as far as a over underprop

25:42

goes. We'll see what happens with the adjusted

25:44

numbers though. Yeah, I mean, obviously

25:46

we don't know what the numbers are going to be once

25:48

they get re posted. Let's

25:51

bring in Arthur Caesar right now from the link.

25:53

Sports were so excited to have him on the show because

25:56

this is one of those times we need to hear

25:58

the truth from the other side of

26:00

the counter all at art

26:03

Dice. He's a great follow on

26:05

Twitter. I encourage you, uh if you'm a follow

26:07

today at art Dice. Arthur,

26:10

how you holding up, buddy? This has been as crazy a week

26:12

as any of us can ever remember when

26:15

it comes to sports and to sports betting. Yeah,

26:18

gentlemen, this is this has been a tough, tough couple

26:20

of days. Obviously, very somber. We all love

26:22

sports and I listen, things

26:24

are a lot bigger than sports. But this

26:27

has been tough. But I'm happy to be here with you, guys.

26:29

I'm glad to have you and and look, I mean I

26:32

don't have normally on most shows, I've got notes

26:34

up and down on what we're gonna ask you. I want

26:36

a free flowing discuss today. I want to talk about

26:39

Let's start with this. Is the

26:41

link busy right now? Is anybody in there? I

26:43

saw some pictures from the link yesterday looked like a ghost

26:45

town? Is it a ghost town in there? And

26:47

is link? Is the link

26:50

comparable to other properties that you've seen

26:52

and heard of on the strip right now? Yeah,

26:55

Teddy, I think you hit it, uh in the previous

26:58

segment. I mean, you know we we are

27:00

dead where ghost count. I think most places

27:02

are going to run with you know, one counter limited

27:05

hours. You know, instead of opening

27:07

at eight am, maybe you're opening at eleven or

27:09

noon, we're staying open all four or five instead

27:11

of being open all ten. I mean,

27:14

this is really just so unprecedented

27:17

that we just we kind of have to almost

27:19

go day by day with it, and you know, week

27:21

by week and see, you know where we are

27:23

with this it's it's pretty incredible,

27:27

you know, are you know you're you're there

27:29

and if you're at the link, you know you're you're right

27:31

in the pit there with the band caves

27:34

and the other machines and the bars. You

27:36

know, just give us, give us a feel. Can

27:39

Is it a noticeable difference with just the regular

27:41

casino crowd? We know what the sports

27:43

books, you know have such limited

27:45

action. Obviously there's not much action around

27:48

the sports book, but the casino as a whole

27:50

from the flow that you see, is it down

27:52

as much as you would expect or is it not that

27:54

noticeable? No,

27:58

I mean it's pretty noticeable. Let me say this. I mean

28:00

when all this broke, I

28:03

think it was what, uh Wednesday

28:05

or two when to day when the NBA we're

28:07

like we're going to suspend. I was literally at work

28:10

and they suspended the games and like we couldn't

28:12

be in totil that day, Like not a

28:14

lot of people were in there. And this was you know, people

28:16

were already starting to cancel

28:19

fan case because maybe they weren't going to travel here

28:21

from March MADNUS this before that was even

28:23

canceled, So you could even start

28:26

in the beginning of the week, seeing like, okay,

28:28

we're starting to see this starting to creep

28:31

in before all the announcements. So yeah,

28:33

it's like I said, it's hard not to

28:35

notice it. So I

28:38

know that you know from Ralph and I, you

28:41

know we make our living three ways. We

28:44

make our living off of bets, we make our

28:46

living off and talking about betting, we make our living

28:48

off plays well over

28:50

three. I'm basically

28:52

after this show today, I'm basically unemployed

28:55

as is Ralph. Are you dealing with

28:57

layoffs? Are you gonna have to are people gonna

29:00

get let go? Are you in danger? I mean, what's

29:02

going on right now in the upper echelons?

29:04

Because when revenue crashes like this

29:07

and nobody's getting hours, what does

29:09

that mean for you

29:11

know, the you know, the people who you

29:14

work with, and for yourself. Are you as

29:16

concerned as we are right now about you know, how

29:19

the bread is gonna get better the next couple of months? Yeah,

29:23

Teddy, I mean listen, I I don't know if it's

29:25

going to be that extreme where you know, everyone's

29:27

gonna lose their jobs I work with or myself included,

29:30

But I I really do think we all

29:32

are worried. Hey, you know, like

29:34

I said, hours of being cut, I mean, we're still going

29:36

to be open to a certain extent. You

29:39

know, like you guys said the Star future sees

29:41

have been on. You know, we do hope

29:43

this isn't you know, sports isn't canceled,

29:46

but you know, we hope this comes back at

29:48

some point. But because this is

29:51

something you know, none of us could ever

29:53

have seen or ever thought would happen. I mean, we really

29:55

are just going day by day, week by week,

29:58

just kind of see you know where we're here. You

30:00

know, the leagues are going to tell us more and more and more,

30:03

and then we're just gonna go from there. And I mean,

30:05

you know, who knows that it's a month or two months. We

30:07

just don't know. So it really is a day by day,

30:09

week by week process at the moment. And

30:13

and I just I'm gonna cut off Ralph real quick. But

30:15

I still remember Post nine

30:17

eleven, all right, because that's I mean,

30:19

that's what if this feels like in

30:22

some sense where everything just shuts

30:24

down in Vegas, just shuts down. Um

30:28

Post nine eleven, That first

30:30

baseball game, that first football game.

30:34

Man, you know, the swell of emotion

30:37

was very real. You know as this

30:39

is, this is who we are, this is what we believe

30:42

in. Um. I

30:44

would think that once

30:47

betting comes back, as long as people still have money

30:49

handled, it be just fine, do you agree, And

30:52

that first game back will be fantastic, That first week

30:54

back will be you know, really um

30:57

invigorating. Oh

31:00

yeah, no, Teddy, I totally agree with that. I mean, listen,

31:02

I think we're all you know, we've had a day

31:05

to whatever this process all of this. Listen,

31:08

I think we're still going to be processing it. You know, next

31:10

week when Thursday hits and you know we don't have March

31:13

Manus games, We're gonna be Wow, this

31:15

is this is real. But uh yeah,

31:18

I agree. I think you know, Americans are

31:20

pretty good at you know, getting back to the flow

31:22

of things when we can. I mean, listen, once again,

31:24

sports is right. We love it. It's the greatest distraction

31:27

and greatest theater in the world. But you know,

31:29

there are people out there dying and you know, being

31:32

sick and all this stuff. So once we can

31:34

get through this, I agree with you. I think people

31:36

will be happy to have the games back. If they still have some

31:38

money, they'll be happy to put some wagers back.

31:41

So let's just hope this all happens and

31:43

happens, you know, in a speedy

31:45

time. Price. You

31:47

know, one thing I want to mention guys is that, you

31:51

know, there's such a difference between the college

31:53

game and the professional ranks. The

31:55

college is needed to cancel because

31:58

number one, they were closing

32:00

down the schools. You can't have kids

32:02

practicing in schools when you're not allowing other

32:04

kids on campus, and you

32:07

know you have student athletes not

32:09

getting paid. The pros are gonna resume,

32:11

We're gonna have a playoff most

32:13

like, I mean, right now, the way it's

32:15

going, I think there's absolutely going to be an NBA

32:18

playoff. There's absolutely gonna be an NHL

32:20

playoffs. There's actually gonna be a few regular

32:22

season games to work up to that. So, you

32:24

know, I've talked to a few people. They go, they

32:26

canceled March Madness, but they're going to cancel everything.

32:29

You have to remember two completely different

32:31

perspectives, the college game with college

32:34

athletes and the professional ranks

32:36

that are getting paid to do it, and

32:39

the arenas that is their livelihood

32:41

as being a pro sports team. Yeah,

32:46

well, I mean you said it perfectly. College

32:48

kids don't get paid. I mean, they probably should,

32:50

but you know the kids, the

32:53

kid who's nineteen years old playing it too, you

32:55

know, he's not getting paid where Lebron James

32:57

is getting paid, you know, and you know Sydney Cards

33:00

he's getting paid. So I agree pro

33:02

sports are going to come back. They're gonna come back at

33:04

some point. Listen, it's we

33:06

all love March Matus. It was very unfortunate they

33:08

had to do, but like you said, they had no choice.

33:10

It's just you know, it's the

33:13

way it is. And it's uh, we will remember

33:15

this for the next fifty year. They'll say that. Well,

33:18

and I'll say this too, is that next year's March Man, it's

33:20

gonna be amazing, you know what I mean, It'll

33:23

be a two year weight between cause we didn't get the conference.

33:25

I mean, honestly, this week yesterday

33:27

and today probably my two favorite days of the entire

33:30

year when it comes to sports betting. These conference

33:32

tournaments are gold. Um not this

33:34

year. Unfortunately. Let's talk about the impact

33:36

because there's one thing that people

33:38

are still asking about, and I think

33:41

it's very real, the impact on futures

33:43

bets. There's two different kinds of futures bets. There's

33:46

wind totals, and then there's odds

33:48

to win something, whether it's a division, a conference,

33:50

you know, the the World Series, etcetera,

33:52

etcetera. Wind totals

33:55

and two win bets. How are you dealing with

33:57

those futures right now at

33:59

Caesar Sports Brook at the Link in particular. Yeah,

34:02

I mean right now for you know, NBA and NHL,

34:05

everything is just kind of on hope. We're

34:07

just still kind of wait to see what's going to happen,

34:10

you know. I mean for wind totals, for for

34:12

the most part, you know, if they come back and play

34:15

uh condensed schedule. You know,

34:17

a lot of stipulations in these wind totals are

34:19

like they gotta play eighty one game, so a

34:21

lot of those could be refunds. But once

34:23

again, there is nothing. It's

34:26

it's not yes or no right now. It really is just

34:29

we're kind of in a weight and hold pattern. I

34:31

mean, and when we come back, and like I said, I

34:33

agree with her up, we're gonna have a Stanley Cup, We're gonna

34:35

have an NBA Finals, So you

34:38

know, those futures will be futures. I mean, you

34:40

know we're gonna Crown champions so those

34:42

type of things to win, you know, NBA

34:44

Championship, when Stanley Cup, those will be back.

34:47

But the wind totals, we just don't know right now,

34:54

you know, are you know I have I have one

34:56

question then you know, I don't

34:58

think this has ever happened. There may be in some season

35:01

that's been delayed for for a reason. I

35:03

just want to get your best guests. We're not holding

35:05

you to it. When and

35:08

I had mentioned earlier talking about looking

35:10

through some schedules, how St. Louis played a very

35:12

difficult schedule early. Do you

35:14

envision that when Major League Baseball

35:17

win totals come back with a shortened version

35:19

that you're gonna say, Okay, we had this

35:22

at a hundred wins, a hundred wins

35:24

divided by a hundred sixty two games. Is this

35:26

percentage the schedule? Is this percentage?

35:28

We're gonna open the number here, or you

35:31

think they'll do a deeper dive and look at the

35:33

players that might have missed and will be back. The

35:35

schedules the teams played as far as home

35:37

and road go, and the strength of those schedules

35:40

that people played. Yeah,

35:43

well, you know that's a great question. And I heard you guys talking

35:45

about that earlier, and it's gonna be very

35:47

interesting to see, Like you said, like a team like St.

35:49

Louis maybe avoids thirteen or fourteen

35:51

really hard games at the beginning of the season.

35:54

Yeah, I mean the way they're gonna break that down

35:56

people way smarter than me. You're going to figure that out.

35:58

So I'll this, I think

36:01

hopefully. You know, we missed two three weeks and they

36:03

do come back with a condensed schedule and a condensed

36:06

over under number and we can still have that.

36:08

We can still have some fun with that. But yeah,

36:10

not positive on how they're

36:12

gonna go about that. Thirty

36:15

seconds Arthur, I know we got flights n

36:18

off to Vegas this week. What's going

36:20

on? Anything at the lake you want to promote right

36:22

now? Listen, guys,

36:24

this is all the tough time for us and sports

36:26

will be back eventually, and when it comes back,

36:29

you come see us down to the lake. All right, guys, and

36:31

I will talk to you guys soon. All right, you guys be sick

36:34

thanks to Arthur. Be safe yourself, buddy,

36:36

we'll talk soon. Wager talk

36:38

continues. Football is kage right

36:41

there? Are you ready for

36:43

the nation's first and only free, twenty

36:45

four hour network dedicated to you, the

36:48

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36:50

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36:53

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36:56

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36:58

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37:00

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37:05

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37:08

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37:24

Jo where you're doc. We get the free

37:26

DoD Division, Jeddie covers and

37:28

a Ralph Michael. That was a great segment with Arthur

37:31

to Caesar, and I really appreciate his candor.

37:33

You know, um, a lot of sports

37:36

directors might not give you what's actually going

37:38

on. Arthur's like, we're slow, it's

37:40

trouble. Um. I thought it was a really good segment. Rop

37:43

what about you? Oh, you know that's what's

37:45

great about art, And you know, people

37:47

assume and people hear things, and you

37:49

know it's the old. It's the old. Find

37:52

out the real facts and don't listen to urban

37:54

legend and don't listen to hear saying with

37:56

Art, we get here exactly how it is. You know, ve

38:00

isn't gonna shut down, It'll just be slow

38:02

for a little while. Yeah, although

38:04

I'm pretty sure that someone flushed a

38:06

crocodile down my toilet. Uh, there's

38:09

alligators in the sewers. Uh, that's

38:11

that's the most famous urban. Remember, let's

38:14

talk NFL futures all right, because

38:16

look, we still have Super Bowl odds up.

38:19

We has odds up to win divisions. We have

38:21

odds up to win the a f C and NFC championship

38:23

games. Um, so

38:26

we don't have free agency yet, we don't have the draft yet. But

38:30

is this a time that in theory you can

38:32

find some value with long

38:34

shots? And then I'll tell you one that absolutely jumped

38:36

out at me, and not that

38:38

much jumps out of me, but the NFC

38:41

South, the Bucks to win the NFC South

38:43

at eight to one is one

38:45

that jumped off the page at me. I'm like,

38:50

that's too high in

38:52

a division where you don't see a

38:54

lot of repeat champs, where New Orleans

38:57

has gotten older, and we're Tampa

39:00

certainly showed signs last year being a

39:02

good team if they could avoid the turnovers.

39:05

Bucks eight to one stood out to meet Ralph What about

39:07

you well, you

39:09

know I love looking at turnover

39:12

differential because you know,

39:14

going back to the field still days and we had

39:16

an article every year in the magazine Turnover equals

39:18

turnaround. People don't realize how much

39:20

an effect turnover has had. San Francisco

39:23

was one of my top teams last year to win

39:25

the division. The over under problem why because

39:27

they were minus twenty six turnovers the year

39:30

before. Your records are relevant when

39:32

your minus twenty six turnovers. The teams

39:34

with negative double digit turnovers this year,

39:37

Tampa Bay was minus thirteen, Carolina

39:40

was minus fourteen, Cincinnati

39:42

minus fourteen, the Giants minus

39:44

seventeen, and the Chargers minus

39:47

seventeen. I think the

39:49

number Teddy was seventy

39:51

four percent of the time, when your minus

39:53

double digit turnovers, you improve your

39:55

record. Now that doesn't mean you're going to improve

39:57

and make the playoffs, but when you have tam

40:00

Pa Bay, when you have a coach I love

40:02

in Bruce Arians, when you have someone

40:04

like Jamis that made so many mistakes,

40:07

if those mistakes get cut down, I absolutely

40:09

agree with you. I'm looking at the odds from

40:12

Caesar's for that were just released

40:14

a couple of days ago. You can get Tampa

40:16

Bay to win the super Bowl at

40:18

fifty to one. Now, you may not think

40:20

they're gonna win the super Bowl, but if you

40:22

like the Bucks and at fifty two one, you

40:25

certainly could put something small on him and always

40:27

hedge back later. Yeah,

40:29

And I'm I personally prefer the

40:32

division titles and the win told us a lot more than

40:34

the odds to win the the

40:36

the the champions the league

40:39

championships, the conference championships, with the super Bowl, but

40:42

fifty one, there's worst bets to make

40:44

than Tampa at fifty uh

40:47

to one. Four next year, can you go through those

40:49

five teams again that finished with

40:51

double digit negative tournamentvential

40:54

and just do it slow because I'm gonna give a quick take

40:56

on each of them as you go through. Because starting

41:00

but the reason I want to do this is

41:02

because when

41:05

we talk about turnover tential and

41:07

and turnovers will turn around, there

41:10

are teams that are built to

41:12

have positive turnover differentials and

41:14

there are teams that are built to have negative

41:17

turnover differentials. Not

41:19

all of them are that way, but they're in

41:21

the five. I think you can give five teams.

41:24

There were a couple of them like they're still gonna have problems

41:26

this year with turnovers, and a couple of them am

41:28

like they're going to turn it around this that year. So

41:31

if you go through those teams real quick, we

41:33

can give our takes on the Let me

41:35

get let me go to your field, let me go to your second

41:37

example. First, Teddy Bill

41:39

Belichick teaches

41:42

takeaways and New England

41:45

they're at the top of the board would takeaways last

41:47

year, so you would think they would have a fallback

41:50

to the median. But if you go look

41:52

at Bill Belichick's history, two thousand

41:54

sixteen, New England was plus twelve

41:57

turnovers. Two thousand seventeen,

42:00

they were plus six. Two thousand

42:02

eighteen, they were plus ten. Last

42:05

year they were plus twenty one. So

42:08

the same thing holds true in college teams

42:10

like Ohio State, teams like Bama that teach

42:12

that turnovers, they are normally

42:16

plus turnovers. That's part of their DNA.

42:18

Now let's go through from the bottom. The Giants

42:21

and the Chargers were both minus seventeen turnovers

42:23

last year, So Giants

42:26

poised for a turnaround, all right. Daniel

42:28

Jones rookie season last year, now he's in his second

42:30

year. There's upside for the Giants and Giants

42:32

are not going to be as bad as they were last year. Um

42:35

I would think then I'm not gonna say they have

42:37

a positive turn differential, but I don't

42:39

look at the Giants as being a minus seventeen this year.

42:41

That's something that I think Daniel Jones will be a lot better

42:44

at in year two than he was with

42:46

year one. The Chargers,

42:49

in theory, have a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor,

42:52

so we don't know what they're gonna do draft free agency

42:54

wise. The thing with Taylor that makes

42:56

him and he fairly unique, he

42:59

doesn't turn the over. You

43:01

know, it's all low

43:03

risk, low expectation

43:06

throws. When Tyrod Taylor's behind

43:08

centered uh for l

43:10

A for the Chargers as

43:12

it was in Buffalo. That's

43:15

his m O. So the Chargers too

43:17

should be better than they were a year

43:19

ago, even though they're

43:21

not going to be even

43:24

with Taylor and questions at

43:26

the QB position, because my initial thoughts

43:29

was l A. You know, if they draft a QB, they

43:31

might be bottom of the league in turn of margin again this year

43:34

with Taylor they won't be, but the offense

43:36

won't be as explosive. To

43:38

your point, Teddy, Tyrod Taylor lifetime

43:41

a fifty four twenty touchdown,

43:45

the interception ratio in interception

43:47

percentage of one. I'm

43:49

gonna ask you this, Let's

43:52

let's throw to Tom Brady. Talks into the mix

43:55

with Tom Brady be the perfect fit for the Chargers.

43:58

Tom Brady isn't the perfect fit in awhere. Okay.

44:01

Tom Brady is is an a forty three

44:03

year old quarterback coming off

44:05

a season in which he clearly declined, coming

44:08

off a season in which he looked old.

44:11

I don't think Tom Brady makes Let let me make

44:13

this very clear. Tom

44:16

Brady does not make any team

44:18

that he's on better next year, not

44:21

any of them. Doesn't matter if he's back in New England,

44:24

doesn't matter if he's in the l A with the

44:26

Chargers. And there's no natural fit

44:29

for Tom Brady on any of the free agency teams.

44:31

Okay, when you say where does Tom Brady

44:34

fit? He fits with the

44:36

team that has every piece in place

44:38

but the quarterback to make a Super Bowl run. Find

44:42

me a team like that. Who's that team? There

44:44

is none? You know was

44:47

done for a few years then for a few years

44:49

ago, right with Osway or a Manning that got

44:51

there? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, sure,

44:53

but they had every piece in place but

44:57

the quarterback, and that's doesn't

44:59

have and off And I'll just leave it like that. I'm

45:02

not I'm not bullish on Brady in any

45:04

way, shape or form moving forward.

45:07

And again, this is what the eyes told me. You

45:09

know, we bet against New

45:11

England in December. We bet against New England

45:13

in the playoffs because they weren't any good,

45:16

because Tom Brady wasn't any good. I

45:19

don't think that changes with an offseason. And

45:22

I mean, if there's one guy that would do a work stopping

45:24

to be great for Tom Brady or Philip Rivers,

45:26

the middle of the season, you have a chance

45:28

to rest up. Brady can't go seventeen

45:31

games anymore, let alone twenty um

45:33

and I feel the same way about Philip Rivers. I don't thin Philip

45:36

Rivers makes any team better next year to you? No,

45:39

no, I agree. Well, let's talk about those other three

45:41

that are double digit plus Tampa Bay,

45:43

Caroline and Cincinnati minus

45:45

thirteen, minus fourteen and minus fourteen.

45:48

Who there piques your interest? So

45:51

I'm very I like Tampa Bay as being a better team.

45:54

Carolina and Cincinnati are primed

45:56

to be bottom feeders this year. All

45:58

right, the Bengals will be going one would

46:00

think, uh with

46:02

the with the rookie quarterback um

46:06

and I would not be surprised. All see Carolina

46:08

do the same thing. So when

46:11

we're talking about handicapping turnovers and

46:13

turnover differential, we're basically

46:15

talking about handy capping quarterbacks and offensive

46:18

lines. And when

46:20

we look at Cincinnati, we look at Carolina, they're

46:22

both problematic units and

46:24

neither team has a defense that's

46:27

known for creating thirty turnovers a season.

46:29

You know, So I've got questions

46:32

about both of those teams. Since

46:35

and Carolina the two squads on your list

46:38

that I would not be particularly excited

46:40

about expecting a turnaround when

46:42

it comes to turnover differential for twenty

46:46

twenty. Let's talk some props. We

46:48

have some Caesar's props. Number of quarterbacks drafted

46:51

in the first round over under

46:53

four the over minus

46:56

one forty. Hearing anything on NFL

46:58

Draft first round QB, I honestly

47:01

think that normally everyone goes in the first

47:03

round. With the quality of the free

47:05

agents this offseason and the number of qbs

47:07

available, I take under

47:10

four before I bet over. What about you, Ralph Well

47:13

you know someone I respect very much and I'm gonna

47:15

mention his name here that I was on, you

47:17

know, the Coking Show with Chuck Esposito from

47:19

Sunset Stations, and Chuck is as knowledgeable

47:22

about anyone in the draft. He said

47:24

at their casinos they actually went from three

47:26

and a half to four because

47:28

of the buzz that uh,

47:31

that the Utah State quarterback has gone.

47:34

And there's another great point

47:36

he made up that a lot of people don't talk about.

47:39

In the first round, if you draft a quarterback,

47:42

you get five years on his

47:44

rookie contract. If you dropped that same

47:46

quarterback one one pick later,

47:49

you only get four years on the rookie quarterback.

47:52

That's a lot of talk about. Baltimore came up

47:54

and and took Lamar Jackson

47:56

in the last pick on the first round, trading up

47:58

because it gives him an extra year, which is

48:00

a huge boost to the team trying to build

48:02

a young quarterback. That's a really

48:05

smart move and that's an excellent astute observation.

48:07

The reality is that it's likely to land

48:10

right on four uh, you

48:12

know, with the burrow and two at

48:14

the top, uh and then

48:16

the love uh and uh probably

48:22

going later later in the first round. That

48:24

does make a ton of sense. That's likely to be a

48:26

push. What about the team to draft two? Uh,

48:28

this one was interesting to me. Lions and Dolphins

48:30

both at minus one ten Redskins

48:32

plus six fifty Redskins have a QB Chargers

48:35

plus seven hundred Bengals plus a thousand Panthers

48:38

plus fifteen hundred. You

48:40

know, it really depends

48:42

on the team. If you love a guy that much, you're gonna You're

48:44

gonna mortgage the house and move

48:47

up. So I would go Lions.

48:50

Great stuff from Ralph Michaels.

48:53

Thank you Arthur Season for joining us here on wager

48:55

Talk Fun Show. We'll do it again

48:58

next time. Enjoy the games, well,

49:00

enjoy the break, Good luck this weekend, drop

49:03

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