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Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Released Sunday, 7th April 2024
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Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Retail inflation and big bank earnings arrive

Sunday, 7th April 2024
Good episode? Give it some love!
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Episode Transcript

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0:06

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch,

0:08

our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving

0:10

events, along with the weekend's top news

0:12

and analysis. Hello,

0:14

today is Sunday, April 7th, and I'm your

0:16

host, Kim Khan. The top story is to look

0:18

out for. Macro focus will be on

0:21

the March consumer price index, which hits on Wednesday.

0:24

Economists expect that the headline number was 0.3% on

0:26

the month, pushing the annual rate up to 3.4% from 3.2%. The

0:31

core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast

0:33

to have risen 0.3% as well, with the

0:36

annual rate ticking down to 3.7%. The

0:40

last time we got CPI figures, FedFund's futures were pricing

0:42

in a 70% chance of a rate

0:44

cut in June. Those odds are

0:47

now down to 50-50, following the stronger-than-expected

0:49

rise in March non-farm payrolls. Whilst

0:51

Fargo economists say that while their base case

0:53

is for 100 basis points of cuts this

0:56

year, risks are skewed towards less

0:58

easing rather than more, and the

1:00

CPI and the employment cost index at the

1:02

end of the month will provide evidence that

1:04

a healthier balance between supply and demand in

1:06

the labor market is translating to lower inflationary

1:09

pressures. Returning inflation back to

1:11

2% for the long haul remains the Fed's

1:13

primary concern, and it will take at least

1:15

a little more progress on the inflation front

1:17

before the first rate cut occurs, they add.

1:20

But based on what we know now, the strength of

1:22

the labor market suggests the FOMC can continue

1:25

to await further improvement on the inflation

1:27

front before easing policy. Meanwhile,

1:30

the big banks kick off earnings season at the tail

1:32

end of the week. Friday will

1:34

see JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock,

1:36

and Citigroup all issue results pre-market.

1:40

Analysts have noted that investment banking came

1:42

back strong in Q1, with high yield

1:44

issuance, leveraged loan syndications, and equity underwriting

1:46

volumes all at their highest level since

1:48

Q4 of 2021. But

1:51

corporate loan demand has been weak. Speaking

1:53

off, analysts' Kavanaugh research has a strong

1:56

buy on Citi, saying shares are deeply

1:58

undervalued. of

2:00

rate cuts are fostering optimism for a

2:02

better credit landscape, supporting potential loan growth

2:05

as well as a sharp uptick in

2:07

investment banking activity," Kavanaugh adds. Among

2:10

other notable earnings this week, NeoGen,

2:12

Pricemart and Tilray Brands weigh in

2:14

on Tuesday. Wednesday brings numbers

2:16

from Delta Airlines, Applied Digital and Rent the

2:19

Runway, and Constellation Brands, Carmax

2:21

and Fastenal report Friday. Looking

2:24

to the news of the weekend, Elon Musk's

2:26

XA-RAs and talks with investors to raise

2:29

$3 billion in a funding round that

2:31

would value the artificial intelligence startup at

2:33

about $18 billion. That's according

2:35

to the Wall Street Journal. Venture

2:38

capital firm Gigafund and investor Steve

2:40

Jervitsen are among the backers considering

2:42

investing in XAI's funding round. Gigafund

2:46

was co-founded in July 2017 by

2:48

Steven Oskui and Luke Nussek, who

2:51

previously co-founded PayPal. Jervitsen

2:53

is the co-founder of his own venture capital

2:55

firm Future Ventures. With

2:57

Gigafund and Jervitsen are longtime backers

2:59

of Musk's companies, with stakes across

3:01

SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company and

3:03

Neuralink. National

3:06

Amusements, which controls Paramount Global through a voting

3:08

stake and owns a movie theater chain, is

3:10

an exclusive talk to sell itself to Skydance

3:12

Media. Under the terms

3:15

of the deal being discussed between Sherry Redstone's

3:17

National Amusements and Skydance, Redstone's firm would receive

3:19

more than $2 billion in cash as part

3:21

of the first step of the transaction, according

3:23

to a Wall Street Journal report. After

3:26

that, Paramount would acquire Skydance in an

3:28

all-stock deal valued at about $5 billion.

3:32

Skydance could provide a substantial cash infusion to

3:35

Paramount to help its balance sheet and pay

3:37

down debt. Under the

3:39

terms being discussed, Redstone would receive cash,

3:41

while investors with non-voting shares would get

3:43

shares in the combined company and wind

3:45

up with a diluted shareholding. CNBC

3:48

reported Thursday that under the plan being contemplated,

3:50

there would be a need to raise as

3:52

much as $3 billion in new equity by

3:54

Paramount. This is David Ellison

3:56

and his partners would step up for a good amount of

3:59

that equity, but it was be dilutive. For

4:02

income investors, companies going ex-dividend this week

4:04

include MasterCard on Monday with a payout

4:06

date of May 9th, AT&T

4:08

and Gap go ex-dividend Tuesday with a

4:10

payout date of May 1st, and AbbVie

4:12

goes ex-dividend on Friday with a May

4:14

15th payout date. And

4:16

in the Wall Street Research Corner, city

4:19

analysts downgraded the infotech sector to market

4:21

weight from overweight after cutting the hardware

4:23

and equipment subsector to underweight. Software

4:26

and services remain overweight with high sales and

4:28

earnings trends. Strategist Scott

4:30

Krohnert says AI remains a big source

4:32

of demand for chip and chip equipment

4:34

companies, but pressures on fundamentals are growing.

4:37

The team also surfaced their big buy

4:39

rated and sell rated stocks within infotech.

4:42

Among the buys are Dynatrace with an estimated total return

4:44

of 48%, followed by Apple at 27% and Micron

4:46

at 26%. Sales include NXP Semi with an ETR of

4:53

negative 37% and Skyworks

4:56

Solutions at negative 19%. Be

4:58

sure to check out all the stocks in our story on Seeking

5:01

Alpha and screen for

5:03

your top tech picks at

5:05

seekingalpha.com/screeners. That's all

5:07

for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for

5:09

links to stories in the show notes

5:11

section. Don't forget, these episodes will be

5:14

up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash

5:16

WSB. And join the

5:18

elite community of real investors to earn our

5:21

great investing ideas. Just head

5:23

to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.

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