Episode Transcript
Transcripts are displayed as originally observed. Some content, including advertisements may have changed.
Use Ctrl + F to search
0:06
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch,
0:08
our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving
0:10
events, along with the weekend's top news
0:12
and analysis. Hello,
0:14
today is Sunday, April 7th, and I'm your
0:16
host, Kim Khan. The top story is to look
0:18
out for. Macro focus will be on
0:21
the March consumer price index, which hits on Wednesday.
0:24
Economists expect that the headline number was 0.3% on
0:26
the month, pushing the annual rate up to 3.4% from 3.2%. The
0:31
core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast
0:33
to have risen 0.3% as well, with the
0:36
annual rate ticking down to 3.7%. The
0:40
last time we got CPI figures, FedFund's futures were pricing
0:42
in a 70% chance of a rate
0:44
cut in June. Those odds are
0:47
now down to 50-50, following the stronger-than-expected
0:49
rise in March non-farm payrolls. Whilst
0:51
Fargo economists say that while their base case
0:53
is for 100 basis points of cuts this
0:56
year, risks are skewed towards less
0:58
easing rather than more, and the
1:00
CPI and the employment cost index at the
1:02
end of the month will provide evidence that
1:04
a healthier balance between supply and demand in
1:06
the labor market is translating to lower inflationary
1:09
pressures. Returning inflation back to
1:11
2% for the long haul remains the Fed's
1:13
primary concern, and it will take at least
1:15
a little more progress on the inflation front
1:17
before the first rate cut occurs, they add.
1:20
But based on what we know now, the strength of
1:22
the labor market suggests the FOMC can continue
1:25
to await further improvement on the inflation
1:27
front before easing policy. Meanwhile,
1:30
the big banks kick off earnings season at the tail
1:32
end of the week. Friday will
1:34
see JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock,
1:36
and Citigroup all issue results pre-market.
1:40
Analysts have noted that investment banking came
1:42
back strong in Q1, with high yield
1:44
issuance, leveraged loan syndications, and equity underwriting
1:46
volumes all at their highest level since
1:48
Q4 of 2021. But
1:51
corporate loan demand has been weak. Speaking
1:53
off, analysts' Kavanaugh research has a strong
1:56
buy on Citi, saying shares are deeply
1:58
undervalued. of
2:00
rate cuts are fostering optimism for a
2:02
better credit landscape, supporting potential loan growth
2:05
as well as a sharp uptick in
2:07
investment banking activity," Kavanaugh adds. Among
2:10
other notable earnings this week, NeoGen,
2:12
Pricemart and Tilray Brands weigh in
2:14
on Tuesday. Wednesday brings numbers
2:16
from Delta Airlines, Applied Digital and Rent the
2:19
Runway, and Constellation Brands, Carmax
2:21
and Fastenal report Friday. Looking
2:24
to the news of the weekend, Elon Musk's
2:26
XA-RAs and talks with investors to raise
2:29
$3 billion in a funding round that
2:31
would value the artificial intelligence startup at
2:33
about $18 billion. That's according
2:35
to the Wall Street Journal. Venture
2:38
capital firm Gigafund and investor Steve
2:40
Jervitsen are among the backers considering
2:42
investing in XAI's funding round. Gigafund
2:46
was co-founded in July 2017 by
2:48
Steven Oskui and Luke Nussek, who
2:51
previously co-founded PayPal. Jervitsen
2:53
is the co-founder of his own venture capital
2:55
firm Future Ventures. With
2:57
Gigafund and Jervitsen are longtime backers
2:59
of Musk's companies, with stakes across
3:01
SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company and
3:03
Neuralink. National
3:06
Amusements, which controls Paramount Global through a voting
3:08
stake and owns a movie theater chain, is
3:10
an exclusive talk to sell itself to Skydance
3:12
Media. Under the terms
3:15
of the deal being discussed between Sherry Redstone's
3:17
National Amusements and Skydance, Redstone's firm would receive
3:19
more than $2 billion in cash as part
3:21
of the first step of the transaction, according
3:23
to a Wall Street Journal report. After
3:26
that, Paramount would acquire Skydance in an
3:28
all-stock deal valued at about $5 billion.
3:32
Skydance could provide a substantial cash infusion to
3:35
Paramount to help its balance sheet and pay
3:37
down debt. Under the
3:39
terms being discussed, Redstone would receive cash,
3:41
while investors with non-voting shares would get
3:43
shares in the combined company and wind
3:45
up with a diluted shareholding. CNBC
3:48
reported Thursday that under the plan being contemplated,
3:50
there would be a need to raise as
3:52
much as $3 billion in new equity by
3:54
Paramount. This is David Ellison
3:56
and his partners would step up for a good amount of
3:59
that equity, but it was be dilutive. For
4:02
income investors, companies going ex-dividend this week
4:04
include MasterCard on Monday with a payout
4:06
date of May 9th, AT&T
4:08
and Gap go ex-dividend Tuesday with a
4:10
payout date of May 1st, and AbbVie
4:12
goes ex-dividend on Friday with a May
4:14
15th payout date. And
4:16
in the Wall Street Research Corner, city
4:19
analysts downgraded the infotech sector to market
4:21
weight from overweight after cutting the hardware
4:23
and equipment subsector to underweight. Software
4:26
and services remain overweight with high sales and
4:28
earnings trends. Strategist Scott
4:30
Krohnert says AI remains a big source
4:32
of demand for chip and chip equipment
4:34
companies, but pressures on fundamentals are growing.
4:37
The team also surfaced their big buy
4:39
rated and sell rated stocks within infotech.
4:42
Among the buys are Dynatrace with an estimated total return
4:44
of 48%, followed by Apple at 27% and Micron
4:46
at 26%. Sales include NXP Semi with an ETR of
4:53
negative 37% and Skyworks
4:56
Solutions at negative 19%. Be
4:58
sure to check out all the stocks in our story on Seeking
5:01
Alpha and screen for
5:03
your top tech picks at
5:05
seekingalpha.com/screeners. That's all
5:07
for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for
5:09
links to stories in the show notes
5:11
section. Don't forget, these episodes will be
5:14
up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash
5:16
WSB. And join the
5:18
elite community of real investors to earn our
5:21
great investing ideas. Just head
5:23
to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.
Podchaser is the ultimate destination for podcast data, search, and discovery. Learn More