0:02

Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular

0:04

headlines heard on mainstream financial

0:06

media to bring you unscripted interviews

0:08

and breaking commentary direct from Wall

0:10

Street right to you on mainstream. Let's

0:16

go after it's more Peace. I

0:19

think, Curry's just to wash your hip hop pockets. We're back to the headlights

0:22

and

0:28

Day, what's really moving these markets? So

0:32

it's gymnastics competition time?

0:36

My daughter does competitive gymnastics.

0:40

In March, crazy month and into April,

0:42

travel almost every single weekend to go

0:44

to competition. And most

0:46

these competitions are in Georgia. We're, like, right

0:48

on the border. My daughter goes to a school in Georgia, which

0:50

is thirty minutes away from us. And

0:53

some of these places we have to drive four or five

0:55

hours away. It's like by Atlanta, another

0:58

place in the middle of nowhere, And

1:01

two weeks ago, not too bad, the competition was I Jackalisle

1:03

and beautiful place. We'll hang up there for a little bit.

1:06

It's only about an hour away. Last

1:08

week, it was at Savannah. It's two hours away,

1:10

been there a few times out of competitions. Big

1:14

big gym there and the convention

1:16

center they have. It pretty cool. It's nice.

1:19

Next month, the final competition is gonna be in Orlando.

1:22

But the one last week that I

1:24

went to Savannah, I

1:27

mean, what a racket? It

1:29

was like three thousand girls

1:32

in the competition. And they're different

1:34

divisions. I think it's spread out through

1:36

two sessions. So we're looking at five to six hours.

1:40

And they charge twenty dollars

1:42

per person to get it. So

1:44

you have at least one family member

1:46

there who's gonna drive the child. I average

1:49

just probably like two or three. So let's say

1:51

even at forty dollars per

1:53

family, that's a hundred and twenty

1:56

thousand dollars. Of

1:59

which, by the way, they only accepted

2:02

cash at the door. You have to love that.

2:05

They also charge final officer parking, which is another

2:07

fifteen thousand. So

2:10

the food drinks, you calculate everything. Again,

2:12

I shouldn't really be doing this, but that's what I do as

2:14

an analyst. Because you've

2:16

better perspective of the economy, people are

2:18

spending on. But then basically, this place

2:20

is breaking at a hundred and fifty thousand dollars for

2:22

like two sessions. I went forward

2:25

for A56 hour event. Get

2:27

in cash. One event.

2:30

If you look at these kids travel teams, what a

2:32

business? You families out there, you know exactly what I'm

2:35

talking about, you have young kids, basketball, baseball,

2:37

gymnastics. When it comes

2:39

to your kids parents, we'll do anything, they'll pay

2:41

a fortune. When we travel, we gotta say hotels

2:43

hotels are very expensive now. You

2:46

buy in food, you stay for a couple days? We

2:50

pay thousands of dollars for this. Okay.

2:54

When you look at Leo Todd's practice, one on coaching

2:56

sessions, not just the hotels who control that stuff.

2:59

And it's a fortune. And

3:01

maybe the sport like basketball, I get

3:04

it. We might

3:06

be able to get you a scholarship. Do

3:08

college? Give her a thousand

3:10

schools in D1D2D3? They're

3:12

gonna offer scholarships for you? To

3:16

play professionally overseas. A lot of my friends did

3:18

that that I played against. There's money

3:20

leagues. I mean, so hard to make it a professional but

3:22

there's always make money playing basketball. People do.

3:26

When it comes to gymnastics though, and

3:28

you look at hundreds of thousands of girls competing,

3:32

there's only about sixty Division

3:34

Oncologist that have gymnastics programs.

3:37

Only sixty. And if you're

3:39

really really good and you have your

3:41

hopes on the Olympics, They

3:43

take twenty four girls, of

3:46

which six will

3:48

get a chance to actually compete. If

3:51

you get the last Olympics, it's

3:54

on piles. What did you bow out of the Olympics? Did

3:57

you have mental problems or whatever, the grace goodness ever?

4:00

The girl that took her place on

4:02

the US team finished eighth overall.

4:05

She was a substitute for you. She finished eighth

4:07

overall in the world, at a twenty four

4:09

best in the world that competed in overall. Eighth,

4:12

that's how hard it is to make it. But

4:16

what a business? And

4:18

we all love watching our kids and watching my daughter,

4:20

a best event of Florence, she got nine point one last weekend

4:22

where she got the bronze. However, they don't call the bronze

4:25

medal. It's not the bronze. They call third

4:27

place. Not bronze. Since

4:30

there are twelve places in her group, that's how

4:32

many people competed, on

4:34

our level? So everyone

4:37

gets a medal. And

4:39

I hate this. And a lot of people

4:41

say they but you really do. Even though you see a kid

4:43

in it, they don't get a you're gonna be upset. When

4:45

I play basketball, that may be better. You gotta earn

4:47

your trophy. Couldn't

4:50

walk at a team that no one had to dribble a basketball and

4:52

get a trophy just for showing up.

4:56

With that said, when I'm going to these events,

4:58

you'd know why they give toll place medals.

5:00

It's a business. If they

5:02

didn't, young girls and boys would be upset, because

5:05

their friends got medals. I didn't get a medal. I'm not

5:07

gonna quit. I'm not gonna go in this. I mean, you know, it's

5:09

make it easy for kids to quit nowadays. There's

5:12

so much negative. So working

5:14

hard, trying to be great. And working

5:16

your ass off to finish fourth, which is a valuable,

5:19

extremely valuable lesson, Just

5:21

by doing that, even though you don't get a medal, it's like, oh, I

5:23

didn't get a medal. Isn't it? So so let's get medals

5:25

there. So everybody else I want medals and they're showing

5:27

them everything is pretty cool even though it's eleven twelve.

5:29

It doesn't matter. Can you get it

5:31

because it's a business? As long as

5:33

you deal with the parents who are absolutely insane,

5:36

some of them, mostly their

5:38

child is an absolute superstar, you'll be okay.

5:41

Because I see that basketball time. The one that was

5:43

a a breath, it was insane. In

5:45

parents, we yell at me, yell at the coaches.

5:50

They'll post a coach. As a child

5:52

is crying, say, how could we don't play that more? The coach's not

5:54

gonna write my fault. I'll play a little bit more next game.

5:56

Are they gonna get fired? My day, First

6:00

of all, parents really didn't come to the games that much.

6:03

It was because my parents looked bad. I had a great

6:05

relationship. My parents loved my parents. But

6:07

they were busy. We had three kids. It

6:11

was tough. Work

6:13

in both of them working. Hard

6:17

to do. Try the kids everywhere and go

6:19

to the games. They basically barely had any free time.

6:21

They're gonna sat in. They're like, alright, you play. You have fun.

6:24

They went up to coaching next, why didn't play much? Coaches

6:27

say because your son sucks. He's not

6:29

good enough. I mean,

6:31

all the other kids on the team, they dribble and they're shooting every

6:33

single day. Your kid doesn't pick up up all two weeks other than

6:35

practice, you have him here

6:37

because you wanna get him at a house. You may want

6:39

him a long time. You don't want him through TV, but

6:41

he has a practice if he wants to play. But

6:45

sorry, you gotta get better

6:47

as to what it was. Today,

6:50

it's different when it comes to youth sports. Again,

6:52

a lot of your parents out there. Frank

6:55

cruz research dot com, are I getting emails about this?

6:59

It's different. And

7:01

to me understanding the money business

7:03

aspect of it, I get it.

7:05

But to the bigger point, much, much bigger

7:07

point. I'm not sure

7:09

what teaching our kids about the real world by rewarding

7:11

them. For being

7:14

media? I just

7:16

don't get it, but maybe it's me. I

7:18

do love watching a compete. It's a lot of fun.

7:20

It's awesome. The issue gets

7:22

a little upset she doesn't get a metal here and there, but, man,

7:24

she's gotten progress better, harder,

7:26

working harder. She loves to

7:28

compete. She wants to beat her friends.

7:31

I love it. It's a great valuable lesson. A

7:34

man, just rewarding everyone for just

7:36

showing up. I don't know. We all

7:38

say we don't like it, but it is gonna continue because

7:40

the business behind travel sports is

7:43

absolutely massive.

7:45

And so many people will make hundred and fifty

7:47

thousand dollars and six hours in cash.

7:49

And cash. How great is that? That's a

7:51

pretty decent business. Anyway,

7:54

let's get to the markets. And

7:56

what do we see? Yesterday,

7:59

Powell came out to spider friend of the

8:01

house panel. Unfortunately,

8:04

he's there today, the second day, which is

8:06

really boring. The reason why they have it live in all the financial

8:08

media programs if you're watching, what you have in the background,

8:10

or whatever you're doing with your job is because

8:12

earning season's basically over and there's nothing else to talk

8:14

about. We have to listen to all this garbage and all

8:17

the grandstanding by politicians and jobs.

8:21

You keep razor rates. We're gonna lose billions

8:23

of jobs. And, yes, it true, but

8:26

you have to control inflation because getting a lot

8:28

lot worse for those beep. Sounds

8:32

familiar. Right? What do we've been saying? There's no

8:34

easy solution for this. The

8:36

markets have fundamentally changed. So as soon

8:39

as Powell said, it's not transitory. We're gonna have aggressively

8:41

raised rates. It's a different market. We haven't been

8:43

here pretty much in

8:45

a career of most people that are gonna give you advice.

8:47

Over twelve thirteen years. They've

8:49

never lived in an environment with higher interest

8:51

rates. No

8:54

easy money policy. Money

8:56

being flooded into the markets? Do

8:59

you places like Dave and Buster's?

9:04

Five below discretionary places

9:07

surge. I went to pavement

9:10

buses yesterday with my kids. All of a sudden, they started and

9:12

taxes on the money that you put on the cards.

9:14

So you just put a hundred dollars on each card. We go

9:16

several times going for, like, you know, ten years of this

9:18

place. So

9:21

the more money put in the cards, the more free tokens

9:23

you get, right, which is money for play the video games.

9:25

We put it on the card and, you know, we'll go and rather

9:27

do that, get more and go 234 times when

9:29

they spend it, now they're charging you with sales

9:31

tax on that. That's not like Florida

9:33

Law or anything. Usually, you know, if you charge something

9:36

and you maybe you make it up other ways,

9:38

you're gonna raise price. It's really a shady, shitty

9:40

thing to do to your customers. I was really pissed.

9:42

My wife actually went up and said, really,

9:44

like, we have to get charge you get charge you fifteen

9:46

dollars for those two cars, an extra fifteen dollars for those

9:48

two cars now. And, like, I know a lot of people have been

9:51

complaining. We don't have to do about it.

9:53

You're gonna see this with more businesses because as we

9:55

went there, twenty five percent of the games didn't work.

9:58

There was hardly anybody there, so you're getting

10:00

much worse service and yet they

10:02

continue to raise prices and squeeze out as

10:04

much money as they can, you're gonna see that from

10:06

business to business and business. And what happened to me

10:08

is they lost me as a customer for doing something so

10:10

stupid. It's about it's fifteen

10:12

bucks, but still it pisses me off that

10:15

you get raising prices for the games, raising prices

10:17

here. I don't care about raising price. I understand the

10:19

business believe me, I understand most businesses

10:21

run. I get it. I've been doing this for thirty years.

10:24

But there's ways to do it where provide

10:27

more value for your customer if you're gonna charge them

10:29

more. Don't give them more

10:31

service. Don't take more

10:33

items off a menu. At

10:37

your favorite restaurant and your bill is forty

10:39

percent higher than it was twenty

10:41

four months ago, probably much higher than

10:43

that. But that's what we're

10:45

seeing. It's resulting people saying, you know what? I'm not gonna

10:47

go to that restaurant anymore. I'm gonna go someplace else.

10:50

And that's a next trend that you're gonna see. It's gonna

10:52

happen. You can only take out so many employees out in

10:54

the marketplace before, it impacts business.

10:57

You should see earnings go up temporarily, and

10:59

that's good, but you need to see that top line growing,

11:01

which we're not seeing, especially based on

11:03

this past earnings season. Earnings started to come down

11:06

despite all these layoffs. But

11:08

getting back to Powell with yesterday, basically

11:11

a one eighty from thirty days ago when he's interviewed

11:13

at the event watching the DC. Gotta

11:15

remind me of my wife, It's going

11:17

through menopause. I'm hot. I'm cold. I'm

11:19

cold. I'm cold. I'm cold. Turn

11:22

on TV. Turn on a ladder.

11:24

I can't hear it. Turn it

11:26

lower. Back of what? Like,

11:28

this is all like within a day. But the

11:31

back of fourth, Pampa, thirty

11:33

days ago. Right? The Sesame Street word of the

11:36

day. The one he used, should the market love,

11:38

Disinflation. Disinflation. All these inflation

11:40

is coming down. Disinflation. Disinflation

11:43

has begun. That's what he said. We

11:45

expect twenty twenty three to be a year of significant

11:48

declines in inflation. That's

11:50

what he said. Third days ago,

11:54

his overall to me at the meeting, Daniel,

11:56

I covered that. It was

11:58

kinda like joking and he was laughing. I feel

12:00

like he was taking like a victory lap and everybody was

12:02

happy about it. And

12:04

the markets, they ate it up. You

12:07

look at Fed funds futures, right, pricing

12:09

in what they believe the rate's gonna be in the future.

12:12

After that meeting, they'll pricing in just one more

12:14

rate hike. And a terminal rate, a

12:16

peak rate of four point eight percent. The

12:19

futures were also pricing in for

12:21

rate cuts starting at September. It's

12:23

not that far away. If

12:26

you've watched the financial media outlets that day,

12:28

which that's our job. See

12:30

what's going on? Most comments,

12:32

market pundits, They

12:34

want an agreement, hey, one more hike. Fed's

12:36

almost done. Rick Santoli. Respect

12:39

them lot and bond market. He said, hey, I think

12:41

this is it. We're done. Fed's not raising rates

12:44

anymore after this, which is fine. That's what he said.

12:46

And I kinda see why he said it. Good

12:51

thirty days ago. Right? Powell's really like, you

12:53

know, Gidi, happy, excited. Yesterday,

12:57

power changes to him? He said

12:59

there's little sign of disinflation. That's

13:02

different from what you said thirty days ago. Inflation

13:05

is running harder than expected. That's different

13:08

from what you said thirty days ago. Inflation

13:10

reversed the deceleration trend. And

13:13

I'm quoting him here. Getting different from when you said

13:15

thirty days ago. And

13:17

what happened? After yesterday's meeting, the Fed

13:19

funds? The futures are pricing at likelihood

13:22

of one more rate hike. So

13:26

now pricing in over a sixty percent

13:28

chance of a fifty basis

13:30

point hike when they meet a

13:32

couple weeks from now, along with,

13:35

hey, no cut this year. Now

13:38

the terminal raise projected to be five point

13:40

five percent. Five point five

13:42

percent, think about that. That's a seventy five

13:44

basis point hike in interest rates that's now

13:46

expected compared to just

13:48

thirty days ago. You need

13:50

to understand the significance of that.

13:53

Because if we look prior to COVID,

13:56

so if we look pre-twenty twenty,

13:58

the last time we saw the Fed make a seventy five

14:00

basis point move in the Fed funds rate, decrease or

14:02

decrease prior

14:05

to twenty twenty. Was

14:08

November nineteen ninety four? One

14:11

time. Close

14:13

to thirty years. And good luck going back.

14:15

You're gonna have to go back I think to the eighties.

14:21

That's where? Yet just one

14:23

month, we'll look from February seventh, To

14:27

today, the market went from pricing in a territory

14:29

of four point eight percent to now five point five

14:31

percent. And all

14:33

fairness. I'm not picking on Powell

14:35

here because a lot

14:37

has changed over the past month. Look

14:40

at the data CPI, PPIPC8,

14:42

PC indicator. Well,

14:44

inflation gauge, the Fedwatches cold air carrier much,

14:47

much, much harder than expected. And

14:50

to say, well, maybe it's the weather. It

14:52

was nice. Record weather in January

14:54

maybe. But now what do we

14:56

have? The CPRs come out next week, and you could tell

14:59

by his tone, it's not gonna be pretty.

15:01

Already announced are raising estimates for

15:05

the CPI. And

15:08

that's an indicator that was going down.

15:11

Nice pace. And

15:13

now it's not. It's

15:16

not going down the pace that they want to see it.

15:20

And all while wages and

15:23

jobs remain strong,

15:26

which is puzzling. I

15:29

was like, what's going on? Well, the data, I don't

15:31

get it. Why are more people losing their jobs. We're seeing

15:33

these layoffs, but in the service sector, more people are

15:35

hiring, and you're losing more jobs in technology sector.

15:41

You're looking to use car prices? The Manheim Index

15:44

came out yesterday. Did you see that? Use

15:47

car prices, a start and a surge again. This is

15:49

like several months, but February to

15:51

February increase was the largest

15:53

since two thousand and eight. Does

15:55

that sound like inflation moderating? How

15:59

come we're not seeing food prices

16:01

go lower? How come we're not seeing a

16:03

a major decline in home prices? Even

16:08

though mortgage rates have surged, how

16:11

come rentals aren't coming down quicker?

16:13

In some areas, seen a little bit? You'll

16:16

say, well, a real time if you look at the data,

16:18

real time what? You let me know.

16:21

I just got run my

16:23

mom is Sailing her house,

16:25

that's that border. And she's moving to

16:27

the villages. And she's signed

16:29

a rent over there. And let me tell you. Rentals

16:31

aren't coming down at all. And we've been looking. She just

16:34

locked in a place. We shouldn't have locked it for three, four months.

16:36

Three, four months in a prime of this where rates

16:38

have gone significantly high. We're supposed to see decline

16:40

of rents. We're not seeing it. Good

16:44

luck. People are looking for rent. To pay

16:46

rent. You're really seeing a decline, like,

16:48

you're really saying, oh, I'm gonna wait a couple months, gonna

16:50

go lower? But

16:56

again, all fairness to power, what has happened in past

16:58

thirty days? Look at it two year from

17:00

four point one percent a month to go to five percent.

17:02

That is unheard of. That does

17:04

not happen. Thirty

17:07

a mortgage. Five point nine percent

17:09

a month ago, it's over seven percent.

17:12

You know how many items go into a house when you purchase

17:14

it? Believe me, I know this. I know

17:16

this well, and I'm gonna know

17:18

even weller.

17:21

I'm gonna make up words because I'm

17:23

moving into my house in two weeks. And, yes, we have to get

17:25

a lot of furniture. But

17:29

if you were homes that are purchased, in

17:32

that transition into buying new appliances for

17:34

the new home or cameras or whatever

17:37

you gotta buy TVs, upgrade

17:39

anything. Gone.

17:44

Get home prices stay high. Why? Because supply is relatively

17:47

low. So the homebuilders are still Doing

17:49

pretty well. don't know if you'd be trading at fifty two week

17:51

highs. Demand falling off

17:53

a cliff. Doing a good job of selling

17:56

existing homes. Paying points, giving

17:58

away a lot of free shit to new people. I

18:00

get it, because an existing

18:03

year, eighteen month supply in the market that they

18:05

have, man, six months from now,

18:07

what are they gonna do? So

18:09

a lot has changed for Powell

18:12

to actually come on and have this face on

18:14

And you gotta have that face on, I guess, because last meeting,

18:16

was one on one and sent a view. The guy

18:18

was kinda joking around and laughing, and now you're getting

18:20

grilled by by congress. Just you know, getting

18:22

to an agenda with Congress as you could see.

18:24

The last time this happened, it was in the Republicans

18:26

were in charge twenty years ago, whatever, all the bullshit

18:29

back and forth. Nobody cares. Participants

18:32

make money bullshit or garbage. But

18:36

he's not too happy today. Now

18:38

the bigger point here, guys, is the

18:41

Fed's current strategy. Raise

18:43

raise by small increments now with the US kinda will have

18:45

a soft landing. It's not working. Good

18:49

adamant that we will not have a soft landing.

18:51

It cannot happen. It's impossible. It's

18:54

impossible. To

18:57

control, out of control

18:59

inflation, you need to force

19:01

a recession. Most

19:04

of the time, it's gonna be a deep recession.

19:07

You have to make conditions extremely worse with

19:09

demand falls off a cliff, unemployment rises.

19:12

People drastically cut back spending You're

19:14

not seeing that and you're not gonna see that with these

19:16

smaller ray hikes. Why? Why is it different

19:19

this time? Because you injected eleven

19:22

trillion dollars into this

19:24

market and handed it directly to business

19:26

and consumers this time. He didn't hand it to the banks

19:28

who decided who they're gonna lend to and not

19:30

and have the greatest balance sheets on record.

19:32

And most of large banks are

19:36

three x to five x bigger than they were during the

19:38

credit crisis. Where they're able to kick

19:40

businesses out. Other

19:42

banks without any questions

19:44

being asked. That's another rant you guys probably know

19:47

about. And

19:51

what do the banks do? Hey, let's raise dividends

19:53

and buyback our stock since we can

19:55

only lend

19:57

out a certain amount. We have to be careful. Our

19:59

capital ratios have to be in line. Dot

20:04

Frank now and all this, so we have all this cable we're gonna

20:06

do, well, let's buy back stock, make more money

20:08

for ourselves, great, great system they got in place

20:10

there. But

20:13

this time is different. With

20:15

somebody going, right to people, they spent it

20:17

like crazy, they still have some money in the sidelines. Yes.

20:21

When I see the savings dwindle, they still have a

20:23

lot of money. They're much richer than they were two years

20:25

ago. Even though their portfolios are

20:27

down a little bit from their highs, down more than a little

20:29

bit from their highs. The home price is starting

20:31

to decline. Probably little worried

20:33

about their job right now. You should be no matter

20:36

what job it is, especially if you're

20:38

making above average money you should worry?

20:42

To easily be replaced by someone

20:45

making half as much? Especially if

20:47

you job skills are not great and you're not

20:49

a necessity, some people are.

20:51

Most people, maybe not so much.

20:54

You thought you were until the company is cutting

20:57

costs because there's no way that can be

20:59

deflated earnings expectations. But

21:03

if you're looking at this playbook of a soft landing,

21:05

it's just it's impossible. These

21:09

conditions have to get worse and the Fed

21:11

knows that now. If

21:13

you're looking at it, what's the playbook? The playbook

21:15

is the late seventies and eighties. And they made

21:18

a huge mistake. Trying to do what Powell's doing

21:20

right now. Have a soft landing. Because

21:22

with a Fed, Though they

21:25

had inflation under control is by

21:27

significantly raising rates in nineteen seventy

21:29

eight and into nineteen seventy nine halfway midyear,

21:32

They did that under control and they start lowering rates,

21:34

like right away. And it bit

21:36

the FedNY the FedNY ass. Inflation

21:41

came roaring back. Into

21:45

nineteen eighty, the Fed had rage race aggressively

21:47

again. A lot of people got crushed, markets

21:49

got crushed, everybody got hurt during that time.

21:51

It's very, very difficult. But

21:54

that's the playbook. It wasn't, you know, hey,

21:56

there's no self landing here. And

21:58

Powell was saying last meeting to

22:00

be fair. He was saying, look,

22:02

we got to raise rates. We got to go high.

22:04

Just the market was like, he's full of shit.

22:07

They're like, they might not raise rates again and we're

22:09

good and inflation's other control. Like, he was saying

22:11

it. I just don't like the fact that

22:13

he uses the term. This

22:16

inflation and now he's like, we don't

22:18

have this inflation because that that's a change.

22:20

Right? Well, look at that guy that every word matters because

22:22

he's the most powerful person on Earth. He controls

22:24

the global economy based on

22:27

what his organization is gonna do at rates.

22:33

If you look at inflation, it's like having

22:35

fleas in your house. You

22:38

can't kill eighty five percent of them.

22:40

Show you see the difference and be like, alright, the house

22:42

is better. That's okay. It's less sleeves than you hope. They're gonna

22:44

come back even stronger. Unless,

22:47

you eradicate them. With inflation,

22:50

you need to kill it. You can't

22:54

just pretend you're killing. You can't just go Oh,

22:56

halfway. Oh, okay. We're looking good. No.

22:59

It's this thing that's always gonna come back unless

23:01

you destroy it. It has to be destroyed or

23:04

destroy it. It's pedal to the

23:06

metal. And that's what you did

23:08

early on, and it seemed to be working

23:10

the seventy five basis point hikes. But

23:13

now you slow down, it's not worth just

23:15

too much money in the system still. And

23:17

you're seeing that. People continue to spend, prices,

23:20

continue to go higher, And

23:22

you're not paying for anything right now,

23:24

maybe gasoline prices might be a little

23:26

bit lower, but from last month to

23:28

this month, are any of your bills lower? They're

23:31

not lower over the past three months. Definitely haven't

23:33

had sixty six nine year, two year,

23:35

three years. Right? But even over the past month, you

23:38

look at your bills and go, holy shit, man. Everything's lower now.

23:40

No. Prices are not coming down.

23:43

Go shopping. Get food. Go places. Go out

23:45

to a restaurant. Go to a hotel where they're gonna charge

23:47

you you know, eighty dollars a night in

23:51

incidences, just to walk into the hotel

23:53

on top of whatever you booked it on whatever site you

23:55

booked at. Maybe if it's their own. Charging

23:59

more and more and more and more fees. That's what you're seeing

24:01

everywhere with much less service. If you're not seeing

24:03

inflation come down, especially as fans they wanted

24:06

to, they know it. And a CPI

24:08

rating or this CPI

24:11

rating, which is gonna have next week, It's

24:14

gonna come in hotter than expected. We're expecting it.

24:16

They're gonna talk about. They're gonna talk it up. They're gonna they're

24:18

already linked to the Wall Street Journal. Do they do

24:20

whenever they have something that they have that, you know, just

24:23

to prepare the markets for, but

24:25

it's significant. Some of your rates are going

24:27

higher? And

24:30

you have to adjust. And what

24:32

does that mean to you in your portfolio? It's

24:34

significant. Yesterday's

24:36

news With the Fed, it

24:39

wasn't priced into the markets. That's why you sort

24:41

of fed funds futures. Are

24:43

you pricing a fifty basis point cut? So

24:45

think we did the same pretty much

24:47

two months ago that they should be doing. But

24:50

now, we saw at the last meeting that so

24:52

we were saying, okay. They're done. That

24:54

I'm gonna go fifty basis points? Okay.

24:57

This wasn't priced into the market, so I mark

24:59

a hit a little bit. It's gonna

25:02

get hit. I mean, you'd let me know what the catalyst is

25:04

to buy stocks right now. Let me know. What's the catalyst

25:06

to buy stocks? They're not cheap. They're more expensive

25:08

than the arms. Any of the time when

25:10

you factor in interest rates, almost any

25:12

of the time of the past twenty years, twenty

25:14

five years. When

25:17

you're really looking at at the returns

25:19

that are expected compared to

25:22

the risk free rate, And

25:27

it's called the equity risk premium. Look at

25:29

it. It's at the lowest level. You expected one half so

25:31

you usually expect four percent gains annually

25:34

over whatever the

25:36

risk free rate is, but the risk free rate of

25:38

six months e bills is five percent. So

25:41

if you're going into stocks, when you get five

25:43

percent for free, when you know all this shit

25:45

going down, I didn't even mention the

25:47

fight that these guys are gonna politically these assets

25:50

gonna have, right, back and forth, raising

25:52

a debt ceiling, Russia making

25:55

much more progress in Ukraine, how much

25:57

money we're gonna give you Ukraine, gonna continue to fund

25:59

them. They're not gonna win that war.

26:01

They won't. Again,

26:04

look at from a market perspective, not, you know,

26:06

getting a lot of people dying its war, jeez.

26:09

We're not factoring that. We're not factoring our ties

26:11

with China right now. Geopolitical risks?

26:14

Not even talking about that. China

26:16

reopening, did you see their latest numbers? Really?

26:18

Everyone's stocks have been going higher like everything's

26:20

great over there. Did you see the imports and exports?

26:23

The exports down ten percent, imports down,

26:25

was it five percent? Both

26:28

more than expected? Really?

26:30

Because that's compared to last year,

26:32

and I would think that you reopen those numbers

26:34

should be booming, and they're not,

26:37

when you compared to last year, My

26:39

conditions again weren't that good. So

26:42

where are we seeing the reopening in this whole, you know,

26:44

China growth? That's where the growth is coming from. I

26:46

don't see it in the data. I don't know who sees

26:48

in the data. Show me data points. The

26:51

debt, they're trying to flood money with cash.

26:53

They're everyday can to stimulate that market, but

26:55

based on the data, you're not seeing it. Now

26:58

you talk about those risks, but

27:00

what Powell said yesterday is

27:02

significant to your portfolio. Again,

27:05

not talking about the the obvious risks with

27:07

higher rates, slowing the business. There's

27:10

another major factor we learned from Powell's

27:12

testimony yesterday. Gonna result in a lot of

27:14

big names that likely in your portfolio that

27:17

are gonna get smoked, come next earnings season.

27:21

And this is definitely not being priced

27:23

into those names. Since tomorrow's Wall Street

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and Club premium podcast, we and Daniel are gonna list one

27:27

to twenty of these big cat names that

27:29

some of the most widely held stocks in the

27:31

world that you should be buying

27:33

puts on right now based on what

27:35

Powell said yesterday. Wall

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29:31

for you, Wall Street and

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29:35

With that list of twenty plus names that'll likely

29:37

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29:42

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gonna send a training idea what we think

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the best way to play this

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29:53

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