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Okay, and here's the legal Mumbo jumbo, the

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The stock market hit another old time, records

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rates by 250 skyrocketing cost

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Carson and wealth is a Barron's hall of Fame

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as one of America's top wealth advisors

1:01

and they're right here in Omaha. This

1:03

is where you can count on straight forward

1:05

and objective advice that could help you make

1:07

the most out of every della you've saved

1:10

for retirement. Welcome to wealth

1:12

from wisdom with Carson wealth.

1:15

Hey everyone. Welcome to wealth or wisdom cohost.

1:17

Today is Scott [inaudible]. Scott,

1:19

I'm Paul West. Just want to make sure you know who you figured

1:22

I was. Okay. I knew you from the last time we cohost.

1:24

I cohosted with you. Just want to make sure you didn't change

1:27

at the same, you're looking good man. Glad to be back.

1:29

Scott is our senior investment strategist

1:32

and it was part of the theme of the show today.

1:34

Scott is we're going to talk a little bit about required minimum

1:36

distribution. So is that why we picked

1:38

you? I hope not for the age and

1:40

I'm not, I'm not 70 and a half or

1:43

headed to 72. Yeah. Yeah.

1:46

Possibly not necessarily

1:49

a, but Scott, you know, when you're on the show, we were going to talk a lot

1:51

about the markets, what we're seeing, what we think

1:54

is gonna happen. But,

1:56

um, you know, one of my themes in the show I want

1:58

us to talk about today is turning

2:00

70 or 70 and a half.

2:03

It's just easier to say 70 is

2:05

the church. It's a big milestone in your life.

2:07

Actually. Any zero birthday as a milestone.

2:10

2030, 40,

2:12

50. All right, keep going. Right.

2:14

I, I stopped eating. I 50 was

2:16

not as significant. I as is getting too

2:19

high up, so yeah. Well you're

2:21

halfway there. Okay. All right.

2:23

Or a third of the way there. If you think like

2:26

saw people, uh, but what's your in

2:28

d under current law, uh, your

2:30

required minimum distribution kicks in. Maybe

2:33

you might've been seeing the news weather, uh,

2:35

on TV or pops up on your iPad

2:38

or your phone. They may change that

2:40

age 72, but let's just operate under

2:42

the current rules now when,

2:44

when this happens, you're forced,

2:47

you do not have a choice. This

2:49

is a law that you

2:51

have to figure out and

2:54

you got to answer to in one of the things we talk about

2:56

on today's show is

2:58

what is the

3:01

best, I would say time

3:04

to do it of the year. Should you do it in January

3:06

or June or whenever.

3:09

December. Right Scott or should

3:12

you do it systematically? And we're

3:14

going to talk about that. But the big

3:16

thing is what we want to avoid people doing

3:18

is forced to take this distribution

3:21

when the market is down.

3:24

So that's something that we're going to look at and

3:26

let's just talk about where we are.

3:28

So Scott, we're in June. Happy summer

3:30

to you. Thank you. I know it's not officially the

3:32

summer. It's not yet, but I'm

3:35

telling you, everybody thinks

3:37

this way. I shouldn't say everybody. The majority

3:39

of people, it's past memorial

3:42

day. So summer's here

3:44

at summer. The pool's open lemonade,

3:47

cold, refreshing cocktails, whatever

3:49

you're enjoying. And, but

3:51

you know, one of the things we have to think about is the market

3:54

and what's going on and what's happening. And

3:56

you know, one of my favorite things you do every

3:59

single week, one of my favorite Scooby

4:01

snacks. So as long as my

4:03

right, that's all right. I will be, I will

4:05

answer to that is you love, you

4:08

love to put images up and kind of talk

4:10

about what's going on and what's happening

4:12

this week. So help with our listeners. What are,

4:14

what are the images, what are the Scooby images

4:16

of the

4:17

we clean out of the week, you know, there were no or

4:19

big anniversaries this week. And so

4:21

I thought one of them was a resounding success.

4:23

One of them maybe depending on your point

4:25

of view, but for most people, not so much. Uh,

4:28

it was the 75th anniversary of d day,

4:31

um, [inaudible] on this two, six

4:33

of June. It was coming up this week and

4:35

are now last week. And I just

4:37

a amazing story of all the

4:39

people, not just the soldiers who gave the

4:42

lies with the French citizens, uh, all

4:44

the people that allow that. I mean, it was a year's

4:46

worth of planning to go into that as amazing

4:48

and still there were challenges. So they were able to overcome

4:51

those. I thought that's worth remembering. That's

4:53

worth remembering the great things in the great

4:55

sacrifices people made. And then on

4:57

the same geo sense of bravery, but,

4:59

but none of us attorney down nearly as well. It was

5:01

the 30th anniversary of tenement square as

5:04

well. I believe that was 30 years ago. Yeah. And,

5:06

and you know, in the forgotten time

5:08

actually if you think about it, yeah. And it just,

5:11

it, it never really materialized. In fact,

5:13

it's probably gotten worse since then, a lot

5:15

of different ways. And so that's been tough. And

5:17

then there were

5:18

true, hold on, I'm gonna stop. You are saying no. Is it true

5:20

though that if

5:22

you live in China and you

5:24

Google, you can't find it

5:25

imagery? I don't believe he can. It just

5:28

really goes to the Yale. It's, it's uh, if you've

5:30

read 1984 from George

5:32

Orwell just goes down the memory hole.

5:34

Yeah. A day. I interesting

5:36

that, that you, you think of Google

5:39

as this unabridged universe

5:42

and wealth of data, but yet certain

5:44

countries still take control of what you can

5:46

do. That

5:46

there were reports in China that they banned the image

5:49

of Winnie the Pooh. Now you're like, why? What

5:51

did Poodoo ate too much high? Well, it

5:53

turns out that the police don't like the name, the

5:55

president of China's physique

5:58

and poos physique or not as, so people

6:00

started to use poo as a representation

6:03

of him. He got banned for a little while over

6:05

that. Right.

6:05

Because of that. That didn't make Disney happy. No,

6:07

I'm sure not. That's why they started

6:09

their own content

6:10

division. That's, well that might've been

6:12

that flicks instead of the Chinese

6:14

doing that. But I think they're bigger

6:17

Netflix, that's for sure. Yeah.

6:20

So those are, you know, they're very visual

6:22

images to me, Scott, like, I mean, I think about

6:24

the picture of course for

6:26

me, you know, one of the most visible images is like

6:29

take saving private Ryan. Such a famous movie

6:31

in the image of them coming off the boats

6:34

and what happened to me. So that day I will

6:36

never forget the first time I saw that movie.

6:39

And how intense that first

6:41

30 minute scene.

6:42

Yeah. And you, you hit that with that ramp fell

6:44

and a lot of times people were shooting right in

6:46

there and you were like, how can I get out of here? Cause there's nowhere

6:49

to go. And there really isn't all that much protection

6:51

in there as well. And so that, that just had

6:53

to be, I just had to be some

6:55

heroin minutes to write it

6:56

into that beach. Thank you again to all of our

6:58

listeners to, for you, if you've provided

7:00

your service, any of your family members and all the people

7:02

that we've lost before us. Thank you. Um,

7:04

I'll just spend a half of everybody throughout, you

7:07

know, of course the United States. I was here at Carson.

7:09

We appreciate your service. Um,

7:11

and you know, those are the things that we

7:13

have to remember. And I know we talk a lot about

7:15

wealth from wisdom is you've got to learn

7:17

from your mistakes and always get better for

7:19

the future. Uh, so, you

7:22

know, it's interesting to me, Scott, earlier

7:24

this week I was out in Newport beach, California,

7:27

visiting with some great families.

7:29

Uh, you know, I got a chance to meet, uh,

7:31

some of the children and they had some friends

7:34

that showed up at the place we were having dinner.

7:36

Uh, one of them was getting deployed and

7:38

I was just thinking about the life they're going

7:41

through. Here's this person,

7:43

you know, a family member and

7:45

think about this family. Their son's getting deployed.

7:48

Um, and he can't say where he's going

7:50

and what he's doing. So imagine that

7:52

I just sit here thinking, I'm like, I have a parent of three

7:54

children and we view children's. Got, imagine if

7:56

you knew your kid was going overseas but you

7:58

didn't know where you didn't know what they were doing. It'd

8:01

be tough. Really hard. Wait.

8:03

Um, you know, we joke all the time

8:05

about investing that

8:07

we don't have a perfect crystal ball, that

8:09

we can only take the best information

8:12

we have to make a decision. I can't

8:14

even imagine how much my brain would wander

8:16

if I had a child that was somewhere

8:18

in this world, most likely in a challenging

8:21

situation and

8:23

I didn't know where they were. How to communicate. Yeah.

8:25

Yeah. It's tough. And it reminds us

8:27

all to that, you know, there's invest, there's

8:29

risks in the investing market, which we, your

8:32

assertions of those, but they're just life risks. There are things

8:34

that get put in front of you and things that are, it

8:36

also reminds you to, investing is just about investing, but

8:38

it's about how you can take care of your family

8:41

and support them in difficult times and challenges

8:43

that they run through. And I, it's just

8:45

a good lesson. I think that's one of the reasons I like to Harken

8:47

back to some of those historical events as well,

8:50

is remember that these bad things could happen and

8:52

they can change the world in major.

8:55

And I think it's just good to remember that. Yeah.

8:57

So what else is new in this week in Scooby pictures

9:00

is, was a great picture of a, of a, a

9:02

US air force, um, the,

9:05

uh, graduation there and just have happy

9:07

cadets. And it tied in well with

9:09

the, uh, the picture of the soldiers coming off the landing

9:11

crafts as well. And then obviously

9:13

I thought that, you know, just the very tragic news that

9:15

we saw the Virginia Beach with another mass shooting

9:17

just seems to be that they come up so

9:19

frequently at this point and

9:22

a, just a picture of the victims to remember that

9:24

the, nope. Nobody expected that. Nobody went to

9:26

work thinking that was going to happen.

9:28

And that's, that's, uh, just, it's, it's a tenuous

9:30

difficult world at times. It, I mean, we've made

9:33

it so much safer than used to be, but

9:35

still, every once in awhile it just kind of

9:37

grabs up and grabs people in a way that just

9:39

doesn't seem fair.

9:41

Yeah, it's gut wrenching. It's heart wrenching is

9:43

tragic. I mean, there's many, many

9:45

words we could use to describe

9:47

it, but you know,

9:50

for, for me, Scott, Eh,

9:52

it makes me sick to my stomach. I mean, certainly

9:54

you hear about this and I get, people

9:57

have mental challenges

9:59

and diseases and there's a lot of challenges

10:01

that we have to think through. Um,

10:04

but you know, if you spot somebody like that,

10:06

try to help, try to do what's best, try to help

10:08

get them in to help try to do those things.

10:10

But it also, when we talk

10:12

about living your life by design

10:15

and not by default, and many of us think,

10:17

oh, we're in a bubble and we're safe.

10:19

And you know, we live in Omaha, Nebraska, we probably feel

10:21

more protected than other places because we think

10:23

the Midwest is safer. And I believe

10:25

it is, but it doesn't mean it's bubble

10:28

proof by

10:30

any means. And so one of the things

10:32

that we'll talk about today is how

10:34

do you insulate yourself from bubbles? How

10:36

do you protect yourself?

10:38

And if I can't share this enough,

10:42

if you haven't protected

10:44

yourself by having your

10:46

will or your trust updated,

10:50

you're making a huge mistake. If

10:52

you don't have a power of attorney, Scott,

10:54

if something happened to your family, you

10:56

know, and you became paralyzed

10:59

or did something, who's going to help you make decisions?

11:01

Your wife, right? I hope you have a healthcare power of attorney

11:03

in place. I do for my wife Courtney. So,

11:06

but what happens if your kid goes to college

11:09

and your kid gets

11:12

in trouble or gets hurt or it goes to the hospital?

11:14

Who can make the decision on them?

11:18

Guess what? If they're now age of majority,

11:22

no one, no one, right? Unless

11:24

you actually have a healthcare power of attorney

11:26

for our college aged kid. That is something

11:29

actually we've talked about here at the Carson Group. We

11:31

have had several, if not many of

11:33

our clients go through with that. And I just shared

11:35

this with you because that's a great way

11:37

to protect yourself. Um, that's a great way

11:39

to protect your family. And many moms

11:41

and dads out there haven't done it. It doesn't

11:43

last a long time. But could you imagine

11:45

your kids in the hospital and there's not a

11:47

darn thing you can do about it. Wow, I

11:50

can't. How are you going to feel how

11:52

you're going go through it. So one of the things,

11:54

and if you want questions on this, doing

11:57

this on your own, on legal zoom or other

11:59

areas is a bad idea. There's

12:01

two pathways you can either do fixed or

12:03

variable. And working with the state planning attorneys.

12:06

If you want advice on who to work with

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and how to do that correctly, that's something

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about Virginia and of those things,

12:34

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419-8513 and now back to wealth from wisdom

13:17

with Carson wealth. How

13:19

volatile is this mark?

13:21

Good. And compared to

13:24

historical times? Slightly below average.

13:26

So below average. Yeah. This year has

13:28

been below average Dallas and yeah,

13:30

slightly below average as far shell. And when you look at it from

13:32

the number of 1% moves,

13:35

um, generally speaking we've seen fewer than,

13:37

than I average. The why in the world is everybody thinks it's so

13:40

volatile. I have, I have long or I

13:42

have long thought that there are certain things that you could

13:44

get up and say in front of financial audience and

13:46

no one would ever challenge you in one of those

13:48

lines is while the market share is

13:50

volatile right now, I don't think ever, maybe

13:53

in 2017 when it was not

13:55

volatile at all, it was the calmest year may

13:57

be somebody would have challenged you. But outside

14:00

of that, I think that people experience

14:02

that. And of course the other thing is they forget

14:04

how volatile it was in the past. And

14:06

the fact is that we all 1%

14:09

move every week either up or down

14:11

really isn't all that abnormal when you get down to

14:13

it. Yeah. Well, and of course if we have a

14:16

couple of days where it moves, I mean it's, it's like that's

14:18

expected. That's life. That's, that's

14:20

why it is a market. It's not rational

14:23

everyone. It's not. So

14:25

what happens with irrationality, things

14:27

happen in weird ways and people

14:30

and people heard too, you know, I mean

14:32

every assist the Fed isn't going to move. And then insurance,

14:34

ours is, everybody says the feds are going to cut two or three times.

14:37

And so those big swings back and forth can really

14:39

move the markets and big directions as well.

14:41

Well,

14:41

yeah. So folks, the market,

14:43

you just heard it here. Just to remind you,

14:45

this is why it's called wealth from wisdom. The

14:48

market is actually not more

14:50

volatile here in 19 at this point,

14:53

that historical averages. So just

14:55

realize that now, why do people

14:57

say it interesting again?

15:00

When did they say it? When the market's had a couple

15:02

of down days or a couple down weeks. Yeah. You

15:04

don't hear him say, oh the market is volatile on the good side effect

15:06

in January and February there was these, some

15:09

neo decent levels of volatility. It just happened to be

15:11

that you were always making money and no one complains

15:13

about that. No, not at all. So

15:15

talking about where people are making money,

15:18

um, or not, you know, where do you see right now,

15:21

what's been some of the best performing sectors

15:24

or sector year to date? You know,

15:26

we've seen really the lowest

15:28

risk sectors that have some tie to

15:31

income production be the very best

15:33

purport areas. So real estate has been extremely strong.

15:36

Utilities have done very well. And

15:38

then to some extent a consumer staples, uh,

15:40

you know, the things that you buy every day, those sorts

15:43

of companies, where that sell those in the stores

15:45

as far as the, you know, the retail providers that do

15:47

those, they have done very well. They don't pay quite

15:49

as high of dividends is the real estate and utilities

15:52

markets too. Uh, but that low risk nature

15:54

has actually been a pretty positive, uh,

15:57

PR period overall. And those, those have just done really

15:59

well. I, um, he actually year

16:01

to date two, um, that's probably more related

16:03

to the downturn. What was stretched

16:06

out year today. Information technology,

16:08

while it's been rough lately, has still had a pretty

16:10

solid year, just got eclipsed by real estate

16:12

finally as the top performing sector

16:15

in recent weeks. We've seen that. Yeah. So

16:17

even though it's been rough lately, it

16:19

has such a huge surge on that early

16:21

in the year that really profited from that. And that's one of the areas

16:23

that we, we've focused

16:26

too much on that short term and we forget

16:28

the fact that that markets have actually done pretty well.

16:30

And some of the volatile sectors have actually had good

16:32

years so far this year. Yeah. So

16:34

I would put real estate and utilities,

16:37

and I'm gonna go out on a limb here, Scott. So be careful

16:40

is they're not actually sexy pics,

16:42

right? They are. They would be qualified

16:44

as adults, so boring or

16:47

bland to people. So

16:49

most people think about technology

16:51

and healthcare and others is the

16:54

high flyers and done really well. But really

16:56

which ones are at the bottom end of the sector

16:59

so far this year? Yeah. You know, the space

17:01

that we've seen though is healthcare. Ah, interesting.

17:03

Yeah. And so the, there's a, the berries,

17:06

they're two real reasons why one of us versus healthcare

17:08

was one of the top performing sectors last

17:10

year did very well. So it had a bit of a lead.

17:13

Uh, but what we've seen is some political pressure

17:15

in that area. Both, um, you remember there I

17:18

think 23 Democratic presidential candidates

17:20

and there are 23 of them that are criticizing healthcare

17:22

companies. And so that does have some pressure.

17:25

But what pushed it over the edge a little bit politically,

17:27

uh, was a proposal that a

17:30

healthcare companies would actually have to disclose the discounts

17:33

that they get between the hospitals and the drug makers

17:35

and really open that up. And that

17:37

was not viewed positively cause that was a republican

17:39

led proposals. So they were getting it from

17:41

both political parties. And you know, one

17:43

of the things you look back on, it's the United States as

17:46

a percentage of GDP has

17:48

some of the highest costs in the world.

17:51

And so that's a real big issue for everybody

17:53

that when you look at life expectancy versus

17:55

those percentages of what we pay, we're

17:57

not getting a whole lot of extra boost in life expectancy.

18:00

In fact, there are countries who spend less than we do that have higher

18:02

life expectancy. And so that's just

18:04

become a very popular political issue and

18:06

certainly one that everybody wants to shore the credentials

18:09

up as we started looking towards

18:11

campaign season already, which is, it's disturbing,

18:14

but it is the reality

18:15

where we are only going to become more

18:17

and more prevalent. I mean, is

18:19

this, to let 23 candidates I've lost,

18:22

I think that's the last count I,

18:24

a couple of weeks ago on the pictures I

18:26

do, when the vendors came out, we showed all the

18:29

Pantheon of all the Avenger, uh,

18:32

superheroes up there and then right below it I refer to him as the

18:34

revenge years. Uh, which are all the debt and that

18:36

seems to have done pretty well. So if anyone on

18:38

the audience wants to use that, you don't have to

18:40

quote me, you can do, you can just steal that line or you

18:42

don't want it. I do, but I

18:44

kind of have control over it anyway. So Cook

18:48

Scott Coby Avengers versus revenger is yes. And I

18:50

think it'd be interesting to see how that's certainly starting

18:53

to appliance markets, uh, to some

18:55

degree in, you know, in a greater fashion.

18:56

Yeah. Um, and you know, may with a

18:59

challenging month here for all of us, Scott, and I think for,

19:02

again, that's why I think everybody's saying it's volatile because

19:04

it was a down mom, uh,

19:06

and, and every week was down as well. Um, you'll

19:08

every full calendar week, there was parts of the early

19:10

part of May. They did, you know, peak fairly early

19:12

in the month. It didn't really go up a lot, so it felt

19:14

like a very negative spirits after a series

19:17

of really strong ones. But remember, I'm as

19:19

of the year to date on and last

19:21

Friday, a week ago, Friday, it's

19:24

actually was up 10.7% and it's

19:26

actually climbed a little bit. This is bigger than historical

19:29

historical averages. So as higher year

19:31

it's been a pretty good year. Yeah. You know,

19:33

even with the volatility in May, but we

19:35

did see where the s and p has been done about 6.4%

19:38

nae, which tells you how well it did and a,

19:40

and we've seen other weaknesses. Well except in the bond

19:42

market, which I think that's one of the big

19:44

stories is feel bonds are up. Oh

19:47

y'all 4.8% so far this

19:50

year, which is huge. It gets during the rates,

19:52

that means there's had to been a lot of price appreciation

19:54

cause they don't yield that much as anybody's

19:57

living off the interest of them knows. And so that's

19:59

a really dramatic change and really speaks

20:02

to some of the reasons why you want to have diversified

20:04

portfolios that have all your chips in

20:06

those highest equity baskets, both cause boring stocks

20:08

as we talked about doing well. Um, but also

20:10

some of the bonds also provided very

20:12

nice cushion and in tough times make that

20:15

ride a lot smoother.

20:16

Yeah, it is. It's a big miss so far

20:18

this year. Uh, if people

20:20

haven't understood

20:23

that bonds have performed actually extremely

20:25

well. Uh, and I'll bring this

20:27

up. So when I was taught, started the show, I talk about

20:30

required minimum distributions and

20:32

when's the best time to retire and

20:34

what does that look like? But

20:36

one of the worst times to retire, and

20:39

I know it sounds really obvious here, so stick

20:41

with me because it's one of the most missed

20:44

things is the worst time to retire

20:46

is when the equity markets

20:49

declined. Because what we

20:51

found in historical evidence

20:53

showed this, this your

20:55

account balance on those first three

20:57

to five years of retirement is

21:00

the most important thing you have because

21:02

that's when you start drawing money. That's when

21:04

you need it. And if it goes

21:06

down a lot, right when you need that dap

21:08

and it dramatically changes

21:11

either two things, one, the likelihood

21:13

of you not running out of money or

21:16

are you actually running out of money? And

21:19

two, how much money you can actually enjoy

21:21

your life with

21:22

you wa and Jamie Hopkins, who's is an expert

21:25

in that space. Absolutely. Stakeholder

21:27

here, he won the things he points out. Just do you actually

21:29

spend more in those earliest retirement

21:32

years you need to do so you've got, you've lost

21:34

you and you no longer have the salary. You've got

21:36

the biggest nest egg. So the biggest risk and

21:39

it's your biggest expenditure time. All of those hitting at

21:41

that same point.

21:42

Yeah. Most people don't believe us on

21:44

that, Scott. Like, Oh and I'll

21:46

tell you why. So I watched behaviors is one of

21:48

the most important things I do and I

21:50

explained this to people all day long. Like what's

21:52

the power? Why is Carson Wealth so

21:54

highly rated? Why are you highly ready to Paul? Why is

21:56

the firms so highly rated? It's

21:58

because it's not about just

22:01

the numbers, it's about behavior.

22:03

It's about how we coach you. And better

22:05

yet how we hold you accountable. Segment one

22:08

I tell you we're going to hold you accountable and getting

22:10

your will, your trust and your healthcare power of attorney

22:12

set up. Number two, I'm going to hold

22:14

you to your asset allocation. Number three,

22:17

I'm going to hold you on your spending it withdrawal

22:19

techniques to make sure you're making the

22:22

right decision. And to

22:24

your point, and to Jamie's point,

22:27

it is a huge mistake people

22:29

make is like, oh, I want to grow my

22:31

401k as fast as

22:33

humanly possible so when I retire

22:36

I have as much as possible. So

22:39

I'm just going to challenge you right now as a listener.

22:41

So if you're between the, if you're going to retire

22:43

in the next two years or three years, you

22:46

better go as conservative as possible on your

22:49

farm on k really.

22:51

I know you're looking at me funny Scott, but I mean

22:53

it's something, I'm not saying it's a decision

22:55

for everyone, but you're, if

22:57

you're truly going to retire, let's just, I'll give you an example.

23:00

If you have $1 million right now in

23:02

your 401k, which is an abnormal

23:04

to be a six year old and have $1

23:06

million. So if

23:08

you go conservative and your 1

23:10

million goes to 1.1 million over the next

23:12

two years versus

23:15

if the market goes down 30%

23:19

and you stay in your all equity allocation

23:21

and now you have 700,000

23:23

versus 1 million or 1.1

23:26

they change, is that change? If that

23:29

changes, your retirement is 1 million

23:31

versus once, right? Absolutely. So

23:33

you may say, oh well Paul, I want to get to 1.1

23:35

or 1.2 I'd love for you to get there, but

23:38

what's more important getting to there or

23:41

your assuredness to actually

23:43

be able to retire?

23:44

Yeah, I think that's what that preretirement

23:46

stage, those five ish years before

23:48

retirement, especially when you start to have a good

23:50

idea of when you're going to step out of the workforce. A

23:53

very, very crucial period. A great time

23:55

to get out if you haven't already and don't assume

23:57

and don't assume you should do

23:59

it at the same time. Someone else did it. Uh,

24:01

you need, you need professionals to look at

24:03

it. And I call, one of the things that

24:06

good professionals do is do what? What

24:08

if modeling? What if this happens?

24:10

What if that happens? What if they both happen

24:13

on a fall? Three things happen. And

24:16

it's like laws of probability. So Scott, if

24:18

I'm going to ask you to roll the dice, what's

24:20

the odds of you rolling? Oh, one, one

24:23

six. Okay. What's the odds of you rolling? A six

24:25

one six. Okay. What's the

24:27

odds of you rolling six the first time

24:29

in a six again, the second time. One in 36.

24:32

Okay. Right. Don't keep going

24:34

and see 16 after that I want to, I'm then the math,

24:36

I get a little tougher. But here's the point.

24:40

How, how willing are people going to go to keep gambling

24:42

and worrying about those things? They don't think about it.

24:44

So one of the things we specialize here is getting people ready

24:47

for retirement. So if you have questions for us,

24:49

we love to talk through those. If you want to help getting

24:51

ready for retirement. (888)

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You're listening to wealth for wisdom. Major

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25:15

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25:46

Imagine this, we have a big downturn

25:48

in the stock market and you're forced

25:50

to sell your investments at

25:52

that, the worst possible time. So

25:55

essentially you're locking in

25:57

your losses. What

25:59

does that mean? You're never going to get this money

26:01

back again. Same thing as light that on

26:03

fire. Hey, I'm Paul Weiss. You're listening

26:05

to well for wisdom coast today

26:07

is Scott [inaudible] and Scott, let's keep

26:09

talking about what's going on in the market

26:12

in the world, uh, how it affects

26:14

your distributions, how it affects your life.

26:17

Um, you know, so we spent some time talking about volatility

26:20

and again, we're not that volatile this

26:22

year compared to historical norms. So get

26:24

that word out of your language, uh, to

26:27

you already know my feeling on this. I always feel

26:29

like people say that the stock market's volatile.

26:31

I agree. Like you can see in front of a stage and people

26:33

won't disagree. Just like

26:36

I can't stand when I ask people, how are you doing?

26:38

And they say, busy. It's

26:40

my least favorite word. Everybody knows that.

26:42

You get irritated. I that was starting

26:44

to get ready. My hands are cringey now even

26:46

thinking about it for me to fist,

26:49

but just live your life.

26:51

I mean stop worrying about building

26:53

your plan around

26:55

what everybody else wants you to do. Do what you

26:58

want to do and how you approach it.

27:00

So when I think about what we can offer you here

27:02

on wealth and wisdom, it's advice to help

27:04

you make a right decision. But no. So

27:06

I said to make a decision to

27:08

not sit around and do nothing to

27:11

actually move forward. I got to tell

27:13

you, one of the things we do here, and I'll share

27:15

this with you, it's a technique we do here at the

27:17

Carson Group. We call it our

27:19

six most. So every

27:21

night before we leave as an employee

27:24

here at the firm, or we don't call them employees,

27:26

we call them stakeholders. You're

27:28

supposed to write down the six

27:30

most important things you can do

27:32

tomorrow. So

27:34

two reasons. One, when you come in

27:36

in the morning, you know exactly where

27:38

to focus your time too. It's

27:40

got a chance to work in your brain overnight. And

27:43

you can sometimes even work those out in your

27:45

brain. Three I benefit, I see is

27:48

if there was a reason why you couldn't come in,

27:50

your colleagues could pick up what was most important

27:52

on your plate. So why I share

27:54

that with you is Scott, I love

27:57

doing that just for multiple reasons. One,

27:59

I feel more productive, but to, you

28:01

know, I love doing and I got mine here with me

28:03

crossing it off

28:05

is the best, isn't it? Yeah, I did that check

28:07

check.

28:07

Yeah. I know you do one as well

28:10

or I call it the honey do list on the

28:12

weekend, right? That we

28:14

get you just cross it off

28:16

and it uh, makes

28:18

you, it just makes you feel

28:20

better knowing that you got something done.

28:23

So what we want to help you on wealth and wisdom is crossed

28:25

those things off. And one of

28:27

the things that people spend a

28:29

lot of time is talking about

28:31

our trade policy, but I really, Scott,

28:34

I'm not sure they even know what our trade policy is.

28:36

And what people tend to do is take bits

28:39

and pieces of

28:41

what's happening. And then they combine

28:43

them, but kind of like squish them together to

28:45

form or, and render their own opinion.

28:48

So here we are, we're in the first

28:50

week of June. Where are we

28:52

on trade policy? I mean, what are you seeing

28:54

right now? So we can kind of bring people to speed and ignore

28:57

everything else you've heard. But where are we right now on the trade

28:59

policy?

28:59

Well, last, last, last thing when we talked some about how

29:02

the market had gone down in May and really

29:04

trade has been the biggest catalyst,

29:06

or at least the key catalyst to that are

29:08

we, everything was pointing to that we

29:11

were going to hit it, get to a deal with the Chinese,

29:13

and then it's pretty safe. I think

29:15

it's pretty fair to say that the Chinese backed

29:17

away from some promises that they indicated

29:19

they were going to make. And so therefore the president

29:21

stepped in and, and raise the tariffs

29:23

on that. My favorite quote on that, it comes from

29:26

a New York Times columnist who leans a little bit left,

29:28

but he's talking about the president in a positive

29:30

way. He says that, that, uh, he says, I'm

29:32

not, I'm not sure that the, you know, from his

29:34

own bias, he's, these are not mine, so don't, don't,

29:36

don't email me yet. How would he says, I'm

29:39

not sure that the, the Trump, the

29:41

president, the u s deserved, but there was

29:43

clearly the president that the Chinese deserved

29:45

in a sense that this going

29:47

back presence from both parties have

29:50

been very willing to let the Chinese continue

29:52

to steal intellectual property from us

29:54

corporations and basically not pay him

29:56

for that, whether it's movies, but more importantly,

29:59

uh, designs of techniques and skills

30:01

and patented things that would be very valuable

30:04

that people spend a lot of time investing on that

30:06

basically the Chinese will turn around and steal that

30:08

and compete with you. And, and they do it for a

30:11

particular reason, which we can delve into a little bit later.

30:13

So that's, that's the one that really kicked us off.

30:15

And then the last bit of pressure is there was a big

30:17

surprise, uh, that the

30:20

president, uh, announced that they were be

30:22

tariffs coming on, uh, for the, against

30:25

the Mexican goods shipped from Mexico.

30:27

I started starting to 5% haylage up to

30:30

25 cents. That was a big shock to the market for a couple

30:32

reasons. One, it came out of nowhere and

30:34

people are sort of scratching their heads because they say,

30:36

well, I thought we had a deal that we s we have agreed

30:39

to that we haven't ratified and we're already

30:41

changing the deal that we haven't ratified between

30:43

the countries. Even though the presidents, the countries have all

30:45

agreed to it, they haven't gone through the, the ratification process.

30:48

So that was really confusing because people were sort

30:50

of anticipating that they would get that deal approved

30:53

as part of the overall strength that the administration

30:55

would show in trade, but they kind of undercut their own

30:57

policy. The other one says that trade

30:59

was used as a tool

31:02

for a nonbusiness or non trade

31:05

activity. So this isn't about the shipping of goods is about business,

31:07

it's about immigration. But they introduced

31:09

a tariff, which is a trade policy on that. And so

31:11

the question is what other things could

31:13

they, or would they do, you know, down the different president,

31:16

would they say, uh, somebody isn't

31:18

cutting their co two emissions as fast as we want.

31:21

We're going to slap a 10% tariff on their goods.

31:23

And that becomes a great degree of unstability

31:26

for, for businesses to figure out how to invest if

31:28

the terrorist can come on and off very quickly, you don't

31:31

know how to shape your supply chain.

31:33

And that becomes a big challenge. And so that's why

31:35

we saw the market decline on that.

31:37

Yeah, I mean, and I think a lot of it is,

31:40

you know, Scott, I joke that people tend

31:42

to just infer

31:45

what the right answer is. They either say, oh,

31:47

they're former against him, they don't know if

31:49

they're right or not. And what you're bringing up

31:51

here is a great case study

31:53

on this is it could be right,

31:55

but it's different per country, right? So

31:57

I think people have to realize like most people

31:59

when they're in, I'm going to call him here in New York, coffee

32:02

cafe conversations. Oh,

32:04

do you like the tariff deal or not? Well,

32:06

for who? Right? That's like, do you

32:08

like stocks are not well sure

32:11

do I like us stocks or foreign stocks?

32:13

Do I like small cap or do I like large cap?

32:15

Do I like value or do I like growth?

32:18

You know? So you have to drill

32:20

down to that next level. And I think what we got to do is

32:22

people stop saying, oh, either for or against tariffs because

32:24

there could be some, like you said, that are great or make sense,

32:27

whether it's China, some of them may be that

32:29

don't make sense whether it's Mexico,

32:31

but I think we have to educate our

32:33

listeners that is

32:35

different. And it's just like

32:38

advice. I give somebody it, you could

32:40

have two people both. So say you

32:42

and our producer Mag and you both slid your statement

32:45

across to me for $1

32:47

million each. All right. Good job.

32:49

You're doing awesome. Saving. All right. Thanks a lot.

32:53

[inaudible] oh yeah, it's quite a cold man.

32:55

Okay.

32:56

Well, but let's say you both had

32:58

the same holdings. Does

33:00

that mean it's right for both of you? Yeah,

33:03

absolutely. No, no. So

33:05

same thing for tariffs I would say is it doesn't mean

33:07

the same policy is right for the country. Each country

33:10

is different relationships with the United

33:13

States. So I just want to help educate

33:15

people. And another thing to educate people on

33:17

is there's a lot of credence

33:19

put on a three letter

33:22

term called GDP. Yup.

33:24

And a lot of people, uh,

33:27

I want to say live and die by it, but they, they monitor

33:30

her closely. Uh, and it's

33:32

also, I would say probably one of the bigger mover

33:34

of the markets, which you say Scott.

33:36

Yeah. I mean certainly the premier

33:38

expression of how the US economy is performing

33:41

at this time. Yeah. So what's the look like recently?

33:43

So the top, I never, we just had a revision

33:45

this week from where first quarter came out in first quarter

33:48

came out originally. 3.2 is just revised down

33:50

to 3.1. Yeah. It's a very

33:52

strong number. If s economy grew at 3% every

33:54

quarter we will be growing like gang busters and we would be

33:56

concerned about inflation and not about the

33:58

federal lowering rates but that we,

34:01

they'd probably be raising it at that point. What

34:03

we saw though as you look under the numbers that it

34:05

wasn't quite as strong a,

34:07

there was a lot of you know, inventory buildup in

34:09

certain like one time factor. So what we really

34:11

saw was the economy growing at just a little bit below

34:14

2% that had some one time

34:16

factors that boosted up to above three and

34:18

that's one of the things that we always want to focus on

34:20

it Carson is to get deep enough into the

34:22

numbers that we understand where it's really moving in the market.

34:24

Yeah. And I think it's so important, like in GDP

34:27

is an important number and I would say a

34:29

number that everyone's got to pay attention to

34:31

is their own personal number. So

34:33

Scott, we came up with a concept here and I want to share

34:35

this with you. So that

34:37

is our family index number. And

34:40

what I mean by that is a lot of people say, hey,

34:42

I want to earn 3% I want to earn 5%

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7% 9% 11%

34:47

yes, there are people that I go higher than that.

34:49

Now I have to talk them off the rational cliff.

34:52

But that's a whole different story. But when

34:54

I share this with you is you're really, your

34:56

targeted rate of return should be based on

34:58

what's important for you and your family. So

35:00

that's why we call it the family index number. I'd

35:03

rather help the QB family and the West family

35:06

target. What's their rate of return that's going to help

35:08

them maximize their life rather

35:10

than just pick a number.

35:13

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35:15

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with Carson wealth. And you're listening to well for wisdom.

36:16

Do they have, do I buy a Scag QB senior investment

36:18

strategist here at the Carson Group? Um, Paul

36:20

West especially some time talking to you about what's going

36:22

on in the market. Spend some time talking about terrorists,

36:25

spend about time talking about investments

36:27

and what we're thinking. The lack of

36:29

volatility, even though people think it is volatile.

36:32

Uh, let's next talk about something and I say it

36:34

all the time. Uh, my favorite

36:37

f word is fiduciary

36:39

with that one. Right? Oh, hi. I'm Niecy

36:41

was coming for [inaudible]. Okay,

36:44

that's good. All that's good. Fine. That's for sure.

36:46

Uh, yeah,

36:47

so it just still amazing to be all,

36:50

all of you listening. Very few

36:52

of you truly know what the difference is between a

36:54

broker and a fiduciary. So

36:57

the fiduciary has a legal and ethical obligation

37:00

to do what's in your best interest. A

37:02

broker only asked to do something with it. Should they

37:04

deem suitable for you? Suitable

37:06

doesn't mean best. Does

37:08

not. Okay. Just because

37:11

it's suitable for you to have cable TV,

37:13

does it mean you need to have it? No.

37:16

Right. You could use, it doesn't Mean

37:18

Hulu sling, whatever you want to do

37:20

direct to UB. You choose what's best for you.

37:23

It doesn't mean the suit that you buy is suitable

37:25

for you may be suitable for you, but it may not

37:27

be the best looking one.

37:29

It could be a, uh, a lower cost

37:31

one versus a

37:33

four figure one, whatever you want it to be. But

37:36

so Scott, I'm going to tell you I'm bummed.

37:38

All right man. I'm just bummed that I

37:41

worked. So you all know we're a fiduciary and you

37:43

think, Amy, we're pushing her best interest here. I'm not,

37:46

our job on welfare wisdom is to educate

37:48

people. And I almost said a bad word there and I'm

37:50

just, I just, cause I get so passionate about this

37:53

and so the sec

37:55

had a chance to level the plain field

37:57

and make people that are held to the

38:00

broker standard come

38:02

up to our standard as a fiduciary

38:04

and they didn't come through.

38:07

So the new rule

38:09

creates, well I'm going to call,

38:13

um, a best interest standard. So this is going

38:15

to require your broker that they

38:17

at least have to adhere to what's called a best

38:19

interest standard. And what do they

38:21

mean by that? Is that it's basically a broker has to act

38:23

in your best interest, but this means

38:26

they just disclose conflicts and

38:28

I'll light requirement to mitigate

38:30

them. However, it's not clear how much

38:32

mitigation will actually be necessary.

38:36

You know what that says to me, I'm going to go bury

38:38

it in some extra long document and

38:40

that's going to suffice.

38:42

Yeah, I think that's tough because they've now they've given

38:44

them some words that they can sort of wrap

38:46

themselves around and say, no, we're acting in your best

38:48

interest when it's not nearly as stuff a standard

38:51

as a fiduciary has to face. And that's almost

38:54

a worse situation than we were in before where

38:56

they didn't have to, they couldn't say they were

38:58

working the best interest. They just had to say it

39:00

was suitable.

39:01

Yeah. Well, and here's the, here's

39:03

the thing. I want you to ask your advisor.

39:05

If they propose something and they say, Hey, I

39:07

think you should do this. Ask them the following

39:09

question. What's the next

39:11

best alternative to that? What's

39:13

your next best recommendation? Why?

39:17

Okay, which one pays you more or

39:19

less? Who? You

39:21

see what I'm saying here? So those are questions

39:24

I would be asking. By the way, if you ask

39:26

me as a fiduciary, okay,

39:28

I'll give you my next best recommendation.

39:30

Do I get paid more or less? Neither.

39:33

It's the same thing. So that's why I'm

39:35

always going to give you my best recommendation

39:37

first because I have a legal and ethical

39:40

obligation. I have no conflict with compensation,

39:43

no conflict with commissions, get

39:45

it in writing. And so I wished, wished

39:48

the sec would have stepped it up. It doesn't mean we're going to

39:50

give up the advocacy. Um,

39:52

plenty of people in our profession. We're in Washington

39:54

DC earlier this week trying to really fight

39:57

for it. Uh, but it really,

39:59

you know, confirmed that we've

40:02

got a long ways to go in this business.

40:05

Um, I think it's great for firms like us at this

40:07

Carson group. I'd rather be vocal and out

40:09

in front of this trend than being trying

40:11

to keep any tailwinds

40:15

they have going. Now, at the

40:17

end of the day, all consumers are gonna figure this out

40:19

and it's just like everything else in life.

40:22

It's only so long before

40:24

people finally said, man, this is

40:26

really silly that I

40:28

need to go to a brick

40:30

and mortar store to get a

40:33

VCR tape, a DVD.

40:35

And if I don't return it on time, I could

40:37

hit with late fees. Right?

40:39

Let me make asked what would a VCR tape was.

40:42

I didn't even say Peyto was trying to even really be

40:44

careful here,

40:45

but think about it. Those

40:48

people realized they couldn't handle it anymore,

40:50

so people developed a new

40:53

way. So I'm telling you right now,

40:55

we're at the forefront of this

40:58

is advisors who behave as

41:00

fiduciaries are.

41:02

And so I'd rather be affiliated and working

41:04

with them ahead of time

41:07

then not because

41:09

you make a mistake and we'll keep updating

41:11

you on what's going on with this sec rule.

41:14

Uh, you know, I just give you an example. Um,

41:17

think about sales competitions with

41:19

the ward trips, bonuses and other

41:21

rewards that tend to prioritize growth of

41:23

over Customer Care, Aka

41:26

think wells Fargo and what's happened

41:28

to them and been very public. How

41:30

is that good for you? It's

41:32

not, so let's just not beat around the Bush

41:34

on that one and what that is.

41:37

But what I would like to keep talking about, Scott

41:39

here is as we think about the market and

41:41

what's happening and what's going

41:43

on, um, you know, one of the things

41:46

that people ask us is about

41:48

fed rate hikes in or is it going to go

41:50

up or is it going to go down? So I'd love just to hear some

41:52

of your current thinking related

41:54

to that. Yeah, so we're, one of the things we don't see

41:56

that it shifted even more than

41:58

than a w in the last report is that there's

42:01

been a really a big movement towards the expectations

42:03

the Fed's going to cover SF chairman Powell

42:06

was out and said that if

42:08

we continue to have trade challenges that

42:10

are pushing the, causing the economy to slow,

42:12

and we can delve into that and this for a second or two.

42:15

Uh, but within the Fed does, is watching

42:17

that they're paying attention to that. And

42:19

the basic impression they left with is if things

42:21

are good, slow enough, the Fed, the Fed is going to

42:24

cut rates at some point in order to do that.

42:26

And that's clearly what the market would like it to do.

42:28

They have are going to have expectations that they were going to cut by

42:30

at least, you know, 75% chance of a cut or

42:33

more, uh, in September. And that's

42:35

even moved way past that now at this

42:37

point where the market is clearly pricing in

42:39

a fed lowering interest and because

42:41

the economy seems to be slowing, it's to some degree.

42:43

Yeah. So if they don't do it, are we going to see

42:45

a down? Yeah.

42:46

Well I think that's a good question. You know, it's almost now

42:48

that if your good news comes out

42:50

that shows the economy is not doing as poorly

42:52

as people anticipate, then

42:54

that may take some of those fee fed, fed

42:57

rake hats off to the table. And so then the market will process.

42:59

But I'd rather have the rate cut or would I rather have the stronger

43:01

economy and it made me, they vote for the rate cut

43:03

so that we could be in a situation where good economic

43:06

news might actually push the, the market

43:08

lower, which is hard for people to understand. But

43:10

that's part of the overall incentives that we created

43:13

when we use interest rates and how that all requires

43:15

were

43:15

required rate of return. Yeah, I mean, so

43:19

it's it for me, Scott, and I've talked about

43:21

this and here's my belief and I help a

43:24

ton of families through just our entire

43:26

Carson wealth organization across the country.

43:29

I really think there is this

43:31

huge ceiling that

43:33

is just blocked at

43:35

5% on mortgage rates.

43:38

And the reason why I say it, and I'm

43:40

nodding and I'm actually was going to look right at my producer,

43:42

but she already beat me to it. So

43:44

people that are millennials, Gen

43:47

z's, and others are, they've never

43:49

experienced the world where

43:51

they've had to pay a mortgage over 5%

43:53

yeah. Right. So now if

43:56

they like to flip houses or do things like that,

43:59

could you imagine if I said, Oh

44:01

meg, our producer, it's 6% or

44:03

7% you'd probably not do it right?

44:06

Not because it doesn't make the right percentage. You're

44:08

probably a four, three or 4% today,

44:10

but it's because it's

44:13

a behavioral thing. I can't pay more than five. I've

44:15

never seen it more than five. I could never do it

44:17

where Scott, I mean, I remember my first

44:19

mortgage was eight and a half percent. Many people.

44:21

That was double duty.

44:22

Yeah. You talked to people from the 70s and then

44:24

this is, the rates now are just

44:26

unbelievably low.

44:28

Yeah. So it makes a world

44:30

of difference people. But you

44:32

know, and as I think about many of people have

44:34

to be great savers and figure out what

44:36

to do. But once you are a great saver,

44:39

it's, you gotta figure out how to take actions

44:41

you can't keep saving and saving. And I see a lot

44:44

of people right now that have saved and have a ton of

44:46

cash and don't know what to do. And

44:48

there are strategies, there are ways

44:50

to do that. If you want to hear one of them, we didn't

44:52

talk about them confidentially with you. (888)

44:58

419-8513 there's actually ways to not be correlated to

45:00

the market to help you earn a good return.

45:02

(888)

45:05

419-8513 hey, Scott, really enjoyed having you on the show this

45:07

week. Thanks for being here. Can you come back again?

45:09

Absolutely. All right, well you have some more Scooby images

45:12

for me. All right, perfect. Hey, thanks

45:14

for letting everybody you've been listening to wealth

45:16

for wisdom,

45:18

social security, income taxes,

45:21

estate planning. Every week we talk

45:23

about how to make your money go further in retirement

45:26

right here on wealth from wisdom with

45:28

Barron's hall of fame. Advise there, Ron Carson.

45:31

Okay, and here's the legal Mumbo jumbo. The

45:34

opinions voiced in wealth from wisdom with Ron Carson or for general

45:36

information only, and are not intended to provide

45:38

specific advice or recommendations for any individual

45:41

to determine what is appropriate for you. Consult

45:43

a qualified professional. All indices are

45:45

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45:47

Investing involves risk, including

45:49

possible loss of principle. No strategy

45:52

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45:54

is no guarantee of future results. Advisory

45:56

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45:59

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