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Wheat Market OutlookEpisodes
Episodes of Wheat Market Outlook
Mark All
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According to Mercantile, the recent tenders demonstrated both the lack of cover of the major importers, but also the abundance of available old crop wheat. Weather is still a major issue in some regions (Russia and France) while politics are ca
According to Mercantile, wheat prices seasonally decline in June as harvest begins in the Northern Hemisphere. However, weather concerns, especially in Russia where the drought is expected to deepen, will challenge the seasonal weakens of the w
It is a short week, so Mercantile doesn’t see much change in the markets. The futures will be lightly traded and a little weaker by the and of the week, but thin according to Mercantile. Growers will sell some old crop and leave the new crop al
All markets opened the week stronger, according to Mercantile. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were up 21.75 to 28.25 cents across the board. Weather is likely playing a factor, as the next seven days remain dry for the Southern Plains. Mercan
According to Mercantile, many of the origins saw their stocks lowered, so Mercantile says these are bullish statistics. Ukrainian domestic supplies are the lowest since 2013, as production declines and stocks normalize. According to Mercantile
Mercantile says wheat has benefitted fund-led short covering, but now will watch corn, where funds are still near record short and long-term moving averages have been broken. According to Mercantile, wheat has become expensive vs. corn, so any
While weather continues to be difficult to read and plantings are delayed, Mercantile does not see any major reasons for markets to fall, although wheat could be overdone.Nevertheless, 97.9 per cent of Kansas is experiencing some sort of abnor
Mercantile says geopolitical tensions are causing additional uncertainty in the commodity markets. There is currently a standoff between the fund short and farmer holding. - Mercantile would use this rally to finish old crop wheat sales but wou
Mercantile says the international climate remains fractious, particularly in the Middle East. Mercantile is slowly seeing energy prices increasing and inflation starting to rise. In their view, world buyers are largely finished with old crop pu
Mercantile will have a new WASDE report on Thursday. Mercantile expects the USDA to lower wheat exports because of the Chinese cancellations a few weeks ago. According to Mercantile, the USDA will leave wheat production estimates alone and stil
Mercantile believes Russian and Black Sea politics will likely dominate conversation in the coming week. If the dispute between RIF and Moscow continues, Mercantile says it could be bullish the current crop wheat. The USDA seeded area and quart
According to Mercantile, Chinese wheat cancellations/deferrals will weigh on the market in an environment where old crop demand is limited. The EU and Black Sea still have old crop wheat in need of a home before June. Mercantile would recommend
Mercantile expects some weakness in wheat futures following the decline in cash values. Mercantile says there will be more pressure on the old crop as weather concerns and low returns makes new crop sellers reluctant. Chinese cancellations of w
Mercantile says there are few buyers left for the current crop wheat so prices could be headed even lower whilst they still have current crop sellers who need to sell. However, Mercantile does expect some Fund buying so they would leave cash ma
According to Mercantile, Russia still has wheat to sell and this is lowering world price as the EU needs to reduce stocks. Wheat needs to fight for feed demand as well as milling demand. Meanwhile, Funds have a record short at a time when price
The opportunity for an old crop wheat rally is dwindling, according to Mercantile. Every major wheat exporter still has wheat to ship, and exporters will be competing for shipping windows in the next three months before the new crop harvest sta
The EU, Russia and Ukraine need to see record export demand for Feb. through June to meet USDA projections, and there seems to be little evidence at the moment that demand will come close to those numbers. At the same time, traders are concern
As prices fall, there is a declining likelihood of further decreases, but at the same time, there are indications of more distressed sellers trying to generate cash to pay for spring inputs given expensive storage and finance costs. Heat and dr
Mercantile’s outlook this week: Mercantile believes it is tough predicting markets with so many trouble spots in play. Their inclination is that growing conflicts will prove to be a little negative for most commodities as demand will be lower.
Mercantile expects wheat futures to continue sideways. They think the wheat market is supported but will have difficulty moving higher while corn remains under pressure. Traders will watch the Southern Hemisphere weather and focus will be on t
Mercantile’s Outlook This Week:The markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We do not expect much of a decline in wheat during the week. In fact, we expect wheat to show some strength. Funds will continue to buy in their short.
The next USDA report is out on Friday (Jan. 12, 2024). Mercantile says the trade is expecting a smaller winter wheat seeded area. Cold temperatures in parts of Europe, and excessive moisture in parts of the EU are giving rise to some production
From Mercantile’s perspective, Saudi Arabia’s tender was unexpectedly large, but the price does not support North American execution. Traders are going on holidays, so futures markets will be thin until after Christmas.
Mercantile says Russia continues to be the dominant force in the wheat market as shown by its performance at the GASC tenders. According to Mercantile, Chinese buying is supportive should it continue. Chinese holidays will have them away until
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