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1:21

Me about a frightening incident you've had

1:23

as a pilot. Okay. I'm gonna apologize

1:25

to my mom and my wife on this one.

1:28

Uh-uh. I had a smoke

1:30

and fumes emergency when I was departing

1:32

Guam, and we thought our airplane was

1:34

on fire. And when you have an

1:36

internal fire you have

1:40

not a lot of time. So we

1:42

turned around. We had to put the airplane

1:44

on the ground very quickly. We had a lot of gas

1:46

on board. I was in charge

1:48

that day even though the other pal was even

1:50

more senior in experience than I was.

1:52

But I said, okay, I'm gonna do these

1:55

tasks. You're gonna do these tasks. And we

1:57

had separated mentally to go take

1:59

care of what we needed to take care of to get that airplane

2:01

back on ground as fast as we could. And

2:04

when we reconvened, All things

2:06

were done. We had our oxygen masks on.

2:08

We landed the airplane safely and egress

2:10

the aircraft. How scared were you?

2:12

At the time, you're not

2:14

scared. You're training kicks in. You

2:16

just start turning in an automaton and doing what

2:18

you know to do correctly. That

2:22

is Adam Yuhan. Today, he

2:24

is a pilot for a major US airline,

2:27

but the emergency he described was

2:29

some years ago during an air force flight.

2:31

It was a Boeing KC-one hundred thirty

2:33

five stratow tanker heading out to

2:35

refuel a bomber mid air

2:37

over the Pacific Ocean. That's why

2:40

his plane had so much gas onboard.

2:43

Yuhan joined the Air Force in two thousand

2:45

one, and he's still in the National Guard,

2:47

training other pilots. The first time

2:49

I said that I was going to be a

2:51

pilot, the United States Air Force was when

2:53

I was in first grade. We were walking over

2:55

from school and the three other little guys

2:57

with me

2:58

said, Yeah. No. You can't do that.

3:00

That's only for, like, superheroes. I

3:03

asked you, Han, if he'd ever had a frightening

3:05

incident as an airline pilot. So

3:07

In the

3:08

airlines, I've never had a real issue

3:10

that I would call frightening. The safety

3:12

records are true. Go ahead, read the NTSB reports.

3:14

It's gonna be blown away at how few incidents

3:16

there truly

3:17

are. This is correct.

3:19

According to the NTSB or National

3:21

Transportation Safety Board, which investigates

3:24

every civil aviation accident in

3:26

the

3:26

US, Since twenty ten,

3:29

there have been only two fatal accidents

3:31

involving large US carriers.

3:34

Two. That's out of more than a

3:36

hundred million flights. It's

3:39

a

3:39

miracle. It's a miracle that we can

3:41

push enough thrust out of the back of this airplane

3:43

to make enough air go over the wings

3:46

to then make that airplane rise

3:48

into the air and fly smoothly

3:50

safely to a destination and then lower

3:53

it by controlling

3:54

control surfaces and making them move in certain

3:56

ways that we can bring the airplane

3:58

down at an exact speed to touch down

4:01

and then take you to your

4:03

Today, on Freakonomics Radio, it wasn't

4:05

always this way. If you go

4:07

back thirty or forty years, air crashes

4:09

were not on common. And

4:11

now, it's safer than riding a bike,

4:13

safer than driving a car, safer than crossing

4:15

the street. And what can the rest of the

4:17

people driving cars, especially what

4:19

can we learn from the people who

4:21

fly planes. In commercial aviation,

4:24

we train ad nauseam. There are,

4:26

of course, other things that can go wrong.

4:29

They just made an announcement asking for

4:31

a medical professional

4:34

and we do a little safety

4:36

training of our own.

4:37

Release seatbelts. Leave everything.

4:41

Least seatbelts. I just say I'm

4:43

flipping out right now, even though I know it's

4:45

singularity. This

5:00

is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast

5:03

that explores the hidden side of everything.

5:05

With your host, Stephen Dubner,

5:15

This is the second episode. In our

5:17

series, Freakonomics Radio takes to the

5:20

skies. Early on, we deputized

5:22

our listeners. To make audio diaries

5:24

of their recent airline trips. So

5:26

here's listener named Alex Polson

5:29

traveling with his infant son.

5:32

Okay. So we got them all wrapped up in

5:34

a blanket, rocking him now,

5:36

past fire in. Hopefully,

5:39

we can get him to sleep.

5:44

We heard from Faye Walsh Grouyard, whose

5:46

concern was other people's kids.

5:49

There are three children sitting behind

5:51

me under the age of ten

5:53

with no parent

5:54

nearby, at least that I can tell. And

5:57

I have been kicked a few times.

5:59

And we heard from a listener named Charlie Wood,

6:01

who was just enjoying the ride. Flight

6:04

attendants said it's gonna be a bumpier arrival.

6:06

But the way I look at it, turbulence is kinda like

6:09

a free roller coaster.

6:11

We received hours and hours of

6:13

audio diaries covering every phase

6:16

of the air travel experience. People

6:18

were concerned about all sorts of things.

6:20

Tight connections and tight seats,

6:23

lost baggage, noisy passengers,

6:26

smelly food, but there was one

6:28

concern that not a single person

6:30

mentioned. Getting in a crash.

6:33

And that makes sense. Last year,

6:35

there was only one fatal crash

6:37

in the world that involved a large

6:39

commercial jetliner. A China Eastern

6:42

flight that killed all one hundred and thirty

6:44

two people on board, and that crash

6:46

is thought to have been caused by a suicidal

6:49

pilot. Some other crashes

6:51

involving smaller aircraft brought the

6:53

global total of people killed aboard

6:55

commercial carriers to a hundred

6:57

and seventy four. That's for

6:59

the entire year. That

7:02

same number of people die in

7:04

car crashes every day and half

7:06

in the US alone. Last

7:09

year, there were zero deaths

7:11

in the US on regularly scheduled

7:13

commercial flights. Private air

7:15

travel is riskier, there

7:17

around three hundred people die each year

7:20

in the US. Still, the

7:22

overall progress in air safety is

7:24

almost hard to

7:25

fathom. So how did that happen?

7:27

Yes. You know, I'm knock on

7:29

wood here, but but is really,

7:31

you know, a part and a pun. It hasn't been by accident.

7:34

That is Billy

7:35

Nolan, and I am the acting administrator

7:38

for the Federal Aviation Administration. The

7:40

FAA regulates about every aspect

7:43

of civilian aviation. Airports

7:45

and airlines, air traffic control,

7:47

and the certification of pilots and

7:50

aircraft. To look back the early

7:52

nineties, while the rate was fairly

7:54

low, we could still see, you know,

7:56

more accidents than we wanted. So

7:58

we said about to create a framework

8:01

which was designed to bring together

8:03

the regulator and the airlines to

8:05

openly share safety data

8:07

and trending information. So

8:09

we set out to reduce what

8:11

we call the rate of fatal accidents by

8:14

eighty percent over ten years. We

8:16

wind up exceeding that, reducing it

8:18

by eighty three percent from nineteen

8:20

ninety seven to two thousand and

8:22

seven. And in two thousand and seven,

8:24

we realized we wanted to expand that even

8:27

more. We wanted to continue to

8:29

reduce that fatality risk by fifty percent.

8:31

In the nineteen seventies, there was

8:33

one death for every three hundred and fifty

8:35

thousand passengers who took a commercial

8:37

flight anywhere in the world. By the nineteen

8:40

nineties, that number was one death for every

8:42

one point three million passengers.

8:44

And today, it's roughly one in

8:46

eight million. It is a

8:48

great and an enviable safety record,

8:50

but we will never claim

8:52

victory. Right? It's one that we are forever

8:55

innovating. We're forever iterating to

8:57

say what's next. For all the investment

8:59

in safety training, which we'll get into

9:01

later. Nolan says that technology

9:04

has helped a

9:05

lot. You look at the amount of data

9:07

coming off a modern jetliner. Let's

9:09

take a Boeing seven eighty seven.

9:11

That's got nearly a half a terabyte

9:13

of data coming off of it per flight.

9:16

Are there trends that we're seeing that we

9:18

can have very early indication of

9:20

something that we need to address? When

9:22

you think about sensors, things

9:24

like engine health monitoring. All

9:27

those can be early warning or early

9:29

indicators that you might need to do some

9:31

sort of maintenance. Our goal is to

9:33

be able to share data openly and

9:35

to be able to volunteer report

9:38

where we think there are issues out there so that we can

9:40

address those. And almost real time manner.

9:45

Our industry is such that with our regulator, when

9:47

we see something that looks odd, we

9:49

want them to know. That is

9:51

Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta

9:53

Airlines, one of the biggest airlines in the

9:55

world. And when a Delta pilot

9:58

for

9:58

instance, does see something a

10:00

bit odd? They report it whether

10:02

it was due to their judgment or their

10:04

decision or not. It's a program

10:07

that our employees all know.

10:09

As long as they report something they see as an

10:11

anomaly, they are held harmless as

10:13

to whether they made a mistake or there was a judgment

10:16

error. They may wind up having to go learn from

10:18

what they did and maybe take a class or receive

10:20

some additional

10:21

training. But we want everyone to report

10:24

anything that they see Bastian

10:26

says this sort of program has been

10:28

a key driver of airline safety.

10:31

If you go back thirty or forty years, air

10:33

crashes were not uncommon. It was something

10:35

the industry spent an enormous amount of time

10:38

collaborating

10:39

together, sharing information, sharing

10:41

learnings, working closely

10:44

with the FAA to understand best

10:46

practices and how we could have

10:48

an open book with our regulator. This

10:50

close relationship between regulators and

10:52

industry plainly has benefits, but

10:54

it can be complicated. Two

10:56

of the worst crashes in recent years.

10:58

One in Indonesia, the other in Ethiopia,

11:01

involved a brand new airplane, the seven

11:03

thirty seven MAX, made by Boeing,

11:05

the big US airplane manufacturer. The

11:08

FAA had certified the MAX

11:10

as safe, but in both those

11:13

crashes, the plane's new automation

11:15

system was found to be at fault.

11:17

It has been suggested that the FAA's cozy

11:20

relationship with Boeing led it

11:22

to sign off on the automation system

11:24

before it had been fully tested? Those

11:27

two crashes killed three hundred and

11:29

forty six people. That

11:31

said, Airline travel has become

11:33

the safest form of transportation

11:36

in the world.

11:37

It's safer than riding a bike, safer than driving

11:39

a car, safer than crossing a street. So,

11:42

Ed, in a given year in the US,

11:44

roughly forty thousand people die

11:46

from traffic crashes. If you look at the

11:48

global numbers, it's more than a million people

11:50

a year. And yet to most people,

11:52

an airplane seems a

11:55

lot more dangerous than an automobile.

11:57

Can you talk about that from the perspective

11:59

of an airline CEO?

12:01

Well, safety is paramount and

12:03

we're proud of that. You compare that

12:05

to the auto industry. Obviously, you have a

12:07

lot more operators, so you've got a lot more variability.

12:10

And the other thing that's very different, you will

12:12

not see airlines compete on safety.

12:14

We will not say that we're the safest airline in

12:16

the sky. All of our airlines in this country

12:19

are safe. However, autos

12:21

for many years used to compete on safety.

12:23

It used to say on the most reliable car

12:25

in terms of safety and other ratings.

12:28

They don't do it as much anymore. And that's

12:30

one of the things I've learned from the airline industry.

12:32

Safety is not something we should compete

12:34

on, we should collaborate on. Do you

12:36

think that the average airline pilot is

12:38

a

12:38

safer automobile driver than the average

12:41

automobile driver? 0II

12:44

That's hard to know. I do know that

12:46

our pilots also receive a tremendous

12:49

amount of support in terms of technology

12:52

from the aircraft itself. I'm sure

12:54

they're safer flying planes than they are driving

12:56

cars. We

13:00

tried to find some data on whether airline

13:02

pilots when they're driving cars are

13:04

safer or less safe than the average

13:06

driver, but we couldn't. We

13:08

asked Billy Nolan, acting FAA

13:11

boss and himself a former military

13:13

and commercial pilot if he

13:15

had seen any such

13:17

data. I don't know of any,

13:19

but if I could say one thing, One

13:21

of the things we look for in pilots

13:23

is that sense of

13:24

perception. Now, I'm not gonna suggest that

13:26

every pilot has perfect situational awareness.

13:29

But I can certainly assert that every commercial

13:31

aviation pilot has an enhanced

13:34

sense of awareness because you're constantly

13:36

thinking about what are the threats

13:38

that could impact my flight from the time I

13:40

depart to the time I land? Whether

13:43

birds, thunderstorms, traffic,

13:46

terrain, all of those things that we are

13:48

forever training to and we're thinking

13:50

about. Do you find that

13:52

that sense of observation and awareness

13:55

are more natural or learned? You

13:57

know, there's a lot of assessments that

13:59

pilots go through Part

14:01

of it is spatially, physically, you go

14:03

through all kind of testing. And over the arc of your

14:06

career, your presented scenarios

14:08

to say, how would you react? You're

14:10

flying over the Rocky Mountains? And

14:12

what if you were to suddenly have a

14:15

fire? Or were you sort of have depressurization.

14:17

Where would you go? What would you do? In my helicopter days,

14:20

I was always looking for some place to land because

14:22

if something happened, your decisions were almost

14:24

immediate. Then you had to react. But

14:26

much of that is learned. We sit down and we talk

14:29

about the man machine interface, how we

14:31

work together. Because a lot happens, you know,

14:33

on a flight deck, you see symptoms. You've got instruments.

14:35

You say something is happening, but you've got a

14:37

whole cabin behind you. So you're receiving the

14:40

stimuli all the time. And is your

14:42

ability to synthesize that and say,

14:44

Is there a threat? Is there something I need to

14:46

address? We do want you to have

14:48

that heightened sense so that muscle

14:50

and that mental memory kicks in.

14:52

Described for me, you as

14:54

a pilot, whether it was military

14:57

or commercial later, the

14:59

harriest or scariest moment

15:02

or flight. I was a helicopter pilot back

15:04

in the day, and I was flying into and

15:06

out of Pemun John. So you're

15:08

right here on the line between South

15:11

Korea and North Korea. I found that always

15:13

to be

15:13

interesting. Yeah. I would that

15:15

could be another story for another day. Only military

15:18

would say I found that to be interesting. But

15:21

in commercial aviation, we

15:23

train ad nauseam. So we try to say,

15:25

okay, what could happen? What are the possibility? What

15:27

are the consequence? What is the greatest outcome?

15:29

So be it a fire be it

15:31

wind shear micro birds. We put

15:34

people in the simulator and I used to be training

15:36

captain myself to the point we throw the book

15:38

at him so that that muscle

15:40

memory and that mental memory is

15:42

there in terms of what to do. Obviously,

15:44

you saw it expressed in miracle on hearts and

15:46

that ability to extensively know

15:48

what it is I need to do in the

15:50

moment. Right? That all comes from

15:52

training. The miracle on

15:54

the Hudson that Nolan mentioned happened in

15:56

two thousand nine on a US airways

15:58

light out of LaGuardia Airport in New York.

16:01

The plane, an Airbus a three twenty,

16:03

carrying a hundred and fifty passengers, had

16:05

just taken off when it hit flock of

16:07

birds and lost power in both

16:10

engines. The pilots, captain

16:12

Chesley, Sully, Sullenberger, and

16:15

first officer Jeffrey Skiles were

16:17

able to glide the plane into position

16:19

and land it safely in the Hudson River.

16:22

Everyone survived. One

16:25

NTSB member called it the

16:27

most successful ditching in aviation

16:30

history. Much was made of

16:32

the fact that Sullenberger was a longtime

16:34

Air Force pilot before moving into

16:36

commercial.

16:38

You don't lift one weight one time

16:40

and near the size of Arnold Swartz and Egger. It

16:42

took him rep after rep after rep

16:44

to do what he

16:45

did. It takes a lot of reps to get good at these things.

16:47

Well, the same thing is when you're flying an

16:49

airplane. That again is Adam Johan,

16:51

another commercial pilot who used to fly

16:53

military. Those simulators we are

16:55

throwing a lot of different problems and we have to

16:57

work together to

16:58

get the problem done. There just hasn't

17:01

been that much airline catastrophe in the

17:03

past fifteen, twenty years. And

17:05

it's just been gradually getting safer and safer

17:08

to the point where gosh. I mean,

17:10

I think it's bizarrely safe.

17:12

What would you say have been the key drivers of that

17:14

improvement? If you go back to

17:16

the twenties and the

17:17

thirties, pilot was a sky

17:19

god. They could figure anything out. Right?

17:21

Well, slowly, but surely, they

17:23

had to adjust to technological inputs

17:26

like the first auto pilots that came

17:28

online or the ability to use

17:30

navigation, like instrument navigation,

17:33

not just looking out at cornfield and

17:35

going,

17:35

oh, yeah, I think that's the right way. Why

17:37

things just got safer is

17:40

the evolution of this culture of saying,

17:42

hey, technology can help us.

17:44

I asked you Han if being a pilot

17:46

has made him a better car

17:48

driver. My

17:50

arrogant self would say yes. For

17:53

me personally, I'm able to

17:55

tap into that situational

17:58

awareness and task prioritization mindset

18:00

that's been beaten into me over twenty years of

18:02

being a

18:02

pilot. Like, I really I've adopted

18:05

that mentality. So

18:07

what would it take to bring some of the safety standards

18:09

of airline travel to roadway

18:11

travel? I went back to Billy

18:13

Nolan for this. His FAA,

18:15

by the way, is part of the Department of Transportation.

18:18

In fact, it makes up around eighty percent

18:21

of the Department of Transportation. The

18:24

airline industry has become remarkably

18:26

safe. To the point where I

18:28

would posit that the average person when

18:30

they get on a flight, they don't even really think

18:32

about safety anymore. They think about

18:34

my seat's too small the food is

18:36

not good and so on. So you could say that

18:38

complaining is sort of a luxury of not having

18:41

to worry so much about safety. If

18:43

we look at automobile travel, however, We've

18:46

made great strides over the decades,

18:48

but not as great as one

18:50

might like, and indeed there's been a setback during

18:52

the pandemic and there

18:54

are wrinkles like pedestrians now or

18:56

dying at a higher rate in the last few years

18:59

than in the past. I realize there

19:01

are many, many, many fewer miles

19:03

flown than there are miles driven. Everybody

19:06

is a driver. Most of us are not pilots,

19:08

but are there lessons to be drawn from

19:10

aviation that can make driving safer?

19:12

Absolutely. We know just exactly to

19:14

your point. We say aviation is the safest mode.

19:17

It comes as a result of our

19:19

willingness collectively to

19:21

say that we cannot tolerate a

19:23

fatal aircraft accident. When we

19:25

look at the ecosystem of all

19:27

things automotive, there's

19:30

so much more in play. Right? You've got fewer

19:32

players in the aviation arena, and

19:34

you've got high levels of controls

19:36

around certification of pilots. Certification

19:38

of mechanics, certification of air traffic controllers,

19:41

heavy oversight of airlines. I

19:44

can tell you I've had communications in the

19:46

past with automobile manufacturers

19:48

and their senior leadership in the safety space

19:50

of how do we work together. So I

19:52

think you'll see us continually advance

19:55

at the federal, state, and local level.

19:58

We're all vested in that zero

20:00

fatal traffic accidents. Right? And

20:02

when we can come together and leverage technology,

20:05

we can certainly put a big hole in that big

20:07

number, which is unacceptable. I liked

20:09

your answer. It was a diplomatic answer,

20:11

but let me poke at a couple pieces of it because

20:14

pilots, let's say, both training, recertification,

20:18

but also things like sobriety

20:21

tests. Right? And monitoring with

20:23

technology and so on. Doesn't

20:25

it seem a little bit bonkers

20:27

that just about anybody can

20:30

get behind the wheel of a car just about

20:32

any time and put the

20:34

public at risk. So you see

20:36

where insurance companies will say, you know,

20:38

if you've taken a defensive driver course,

20:40

here's a reduction to your premium. Right?

20:42

So there are some voluntary tools out

20:44

there. I will say personally, I'm a

20:46

big advocate of recurrent training. My

20:49

training used to be every nine months during my

20:51

airline career. And I knew that

20:53

I was gonna get put through my paces to make

20:55

sure when I came out of there, there was a sense comfort

20:57

on that part of the check captain that

21:00

Billy's ready. Right? And so could

21:02

we take some of that and see how that would

21:04

work on the automotive side? I think that's an opportunity

21:06

for us to have that kind of conversation. It

21:09

was never given that we were going

21:11

to get to zero fatalities in aviation.

21:13

Right? It took a lot of work as I said. Look

21:15

at the work being done. I mean, I've got several

21:18

you know, cars and one for my one of my

21:20

daughters. You know, it's got pre collision

21:22

warning. It's got lane departure warning

21:24

lane keep assistance. So we're seeing technology

21:27

evolve. We've got a collective

21:29

sense of ownership in aviation,

21:31

which is why we're so safe. We need that

21:33

same collective sense of ownership and

21:36

responsibility

21:37

that when I get behind the wheel of something that

21:39

weighs three thousand plus pounds. Right?

21:41

The physics of it are is

21:43

something that people just don't always account

21:45

for. Commercial airliners

21:48

rarely crash these days,

21:50

but smaller and private planes

21:52

still crash with some regularity. I'm

21:55

curious what the FAA is doing to

21:57

diminish

21:57

that. Yeah. It's a great point. We

22:00

have done a lot work in the general aviation space.

22:02

We have something called the general aviation joint

22:04

steering committee. We have the helicopter safety

22:07

team. I was at Oshkosh this

22:09

summer. Ten thousand general aviation

22:11

airplanes were on the ground. Six hundred

22:14

plus thousand people were in attendance. And

22:16

we talk about safety. And I gotta tell,

22:18

it's a pretty responsible community. We

22:20

are saying technology that used to be the purview

22:22

of airliners. Now, some of

22:24

that can move quite fast into general aviation.

22:27

You've got better tools. You're using iPads.

22:29

You've got better systems that have weather

22:31

that have moving map displays. In

22:34

fact, sometimes they can move even faster because we're

22:36

such a heavily regulated industry and when it

22:38

comes to commercial

22:39

passengers. But we're making it every effort

22:42

coming up after the break. Commercial jets

22:44

almost never

22:45

crash, but there is still a risk

22:47

to find. Turbula is

22:49

the biggest threat to our

22:51

safety. I'm Steven

22:53

Dubner. This Freakonomics Radio. We'll be

22:55

right back.

23:01

What is this? Prepare for survival.

23:03

don't like our angle here. Am I paranoid?

23:05

No. You're right. So I don't

23:07

like the tension. Can you tell me,

23:09

like, what's causing this emergency evacuation?

23:13

Well,

23:13

you might see it in a second I'm let it go and

23:15

see what she think. I know. True. I know.

23:17

I'm sorry. That is Katie

23:19

truett. She used to be a musical

23:21

theater performer, and now trains

23:23

flight attendants at the Atlanta headquarters

23:26

of Delta Airlines. The training

23:28

is six weeks long and much of

23:30

it involves responding to emergencies.

23:33

Right now, we are inside an old

23:35

plane that's been rigged up with hydraulics to

23:37

simulate turbulence.

23:39

Great. Fair enough. When? So

23:41

this is a command from the captain that tells

23:43

us what to do. Don't pay

23:45

down. Then over, pay

23:48

down. And end over. Stay

23:50

down. We're checking outside. We're

23:53

looking to see if it's

23:53

safe. We're looking to see what our conditions are.

23:56

Evacuate. Get back to work. Alright.

23:58

So then we tell you to get up and get out, which

24:00

is release seatbelts. Leave

24:03

everything. Release see

24:04

it, bro. Can

24:05

just say, I'm flipping out right now?

24:08

Leave everything. Come this way.

24:11

Leave everything, jump

24:12

inside. Are you gonna put your hands out right in front

24:14

of you? Put them right out in front of you and

24:16

arm straight from here.

24:17

Stand there. You jump from here. Or I'm

24:19

straight ahead. There you go. Nice.

24:25

Even though every passenger on every

24:27

airplane sits through a safety briefing

24:29

at the start of every

24:30

flight, Truit acknowledges that

24:33

very few people think they'll need that

24:35

information. Everybody thinks that

24:37

our job is really to give you peanuts.

24:39

Right? But actually, our job is to

24:41

keep you safe. That's the number one job. We are actually

24:44

first responders in a way. Everything

24:46

from deescalating someone who's angry about

24:48

something to evacuating an

24:50

aircraft, and we are trained to evacuate an aircraft

24:52

in ninety seconds. And ninety seconds

24:54

for three hundred people is a lot. What's

24:57

going on over here? She's actually doing

24:59

ICQ. This is our continuing qualification.

25:01

So continuing qualification means our flight attendants

25:03

all have to come back every eighteen months

25:06

to get requalified to be a flight

25:07

attendant. Thank you. Yeah. We actually

25:10

need this real fast. Oh, sure.

25:12

Oh, I'm so sorry. Pardon me? Tool trade.

25:17

Isn't this more important getting a demonstration?

25:21

Worldwide, there are only around thirty

25:24

full plane evacuations each year

25:26

out of around forty million flights.

25:29

Yet another sign of how safe airline

25:31

travel has become. If you

25:33

need help from a flight attendant, it's more

25:35

likely because you're having a heart attack

25:38

or other medical issue, and that happens

25:40

around forty four thousand times

25:42

a

25:42

year.

25:43

We're trained to understand how

25:45

to handle basic medical problems.

25:47

How many times in your flying career have

25:49

you needed to ask for a

25:51

doctor or nurse onboard? Three or

25:53

four.

25:54

And how many times did you get one? Every

25:56

time.

25:59

It just made an announcement asking for

26:02

a medical professional and

26:04

there's some flight attendants running

26:06

around. It's not quite clear what's

26:08

going on. That is Connor McGill,

26:10

one of the Freakonomics radio listeners who sent

26:12

us an audio IRIE OF A RECENT TRIP.

26:15

HE WAS FIND FROM AMsterdam TO MINNEAPOLIS.

26:18

WHEN THE CALL FOR HELP WENT OUT,

26:20

HIS PLANE WAS ALREADY OVER THE HUD in bay

26:22

in Canada, and there wasn't a good option

26:25

for a closer airport than Minneapolis.

26:27

The patient was apparently unconscious

26:30

But luckily, there was a passenger

26:32

onboard with medical training. So

26:34

we're definitely be lining it to the

26:36

airport. You can tell that

26:39

the

26:40

the flight path is different than normal.

26:43

It is very important that everyone remains in their

26:45

seats. Once again, everyone needs to remain in their seats

26:47

upon our into the medical personnel to

26:49

come up with the aircraft?

26:52

There's airport fire,

26:54

EMTs. Okay.

26:57

It looks if they got them off and looks

26:59

scary. That's unfortunate.

27:03

When somebody goes unconscious, on a plane.

27:05

That's a serious issue. That is

27:07

Sarah Nelson. She is a flight attendant

27:09

with United Airlines as well as president

27:12

of the Association of Flight Attendants.

27:14

We're trained to jump into action,

27:17

give CPR, revive people.

27:19

Flight attendants do this every single

27:22

day. This is big part of what

27:24

they do. And when there's that medical

27:26

emergency, we also have to be on the lookout

27:28

for any security risk because we

27:30

have been trained that anything that happens

27:32

on the plane could be as distraction

27:34

from a bigger plot.

27:36

The role of the flight attendant has

27:38

evolved along with commercial air travel.

27:40

So our career was

27:43

started by a brave woman, Ellen

27:45

Church, who was a certified pilot and

27:47

certified nurse, by the way. And

27:49

she really really wanted to fly.

27:52

And so she tried to get

27:54

a job as a pilot and airlines

27:56

just said no, you know, women don't

27:58

belong in the flight deck. They're too emotional. And

28:01

so she made the argument

28:03

that and passengers get sick, then

28:05

there should be someone in the cabin to be able to assist

28:07

with that. And if they fall ill, they need someone

28:10

to attend to that. You don't want to land with dead

28:12

passengers. So she made the argument

28:14

that flight attendants were stewardesses

28:17

back then should be in the cabin

28:19

to attend to the needs of what was

28:21

mostly men flying for business

28:23

in those days. She was really arguing

28:26

that flight attendants needed to be in the cabin

28:28

in order to take care of the emotional men's

28:30

needs. Spell.

28:34

You know, from the very beginning, there's

28:37

sexist tones there. We were defining

28:39

this job as women's work, and we had to fight

28:41

through all those discriminatory barriers

28:44

that were put up for our job. We had to quit at

28:46

age thirty. We had to step on

28:48

a weight scale until nineteen ninety three.

28:51

You couldn't be married or have children. And

28:53

we fought for diversity

28:55

too. WE FOT FOR MEN TO HAVE

28:57

THE SAME RIGHTS ON THE JOB AND WE FOT

28:59

FOR THE AIRLINES TO BE INclusive

29:02

AND HIGHER PEOPLE OF COLOUR

29:04

As for the current functions of

29:06

the flight attendant, Nelson says

29:08

there is one constant danger to

29:10

be aware of. Turbulence is

29:12

the biggest threat to

29:14

safety. So a lot of people are used

29:17

to choppy air where the airplane

29:18

is making your coffee spill, things

29:20

like that.

29:21

We're encountering some pretty decent turbulence

29:23

right now. Nothing that would make

29:25

the news. However, all the flight attendants

29:28

have been ordered back into their jump seats,

29:30

and everybody is required to have their seat

29:32

belt on. That is Freakonomics Radio

29:35

listener Brandon Morell on a flight

29:37

from Tokyo to Chicago.

29:39

I've never once been scared by turbulence. If

29:42

you know anything about the engineering behind the

29:44

planes and the wings, there's no reason

29:46

to be scared at all. Honestly, the

29:48

best stressful part of turbulence is

29:50

making sure this glass doesn't topple

29:53

over. That's about the only I'm worried

29:55

about. It is true that

29:57

turbulence doesn't mean the plane is about

29:59

to crash, but it can still be

30:01

dangerous. Sarah Nelson again.

30:03

Severe turbulence is when there's,

30:06

like, an air pocket that's hit where

30:08

the plane is dropping very quickly. There's

30:11

no warning for it. The plane will just

30:13

drop thousands of feet, and that's

30:15

why you'll hear people

30:17

being thrown to the ceiling, hitting their head, and

30:19

coming down along with anything

30:22

that's loose. So we take turbulence

30:24

extremely seriously. The

30:26

flight deck will often be working

30:29

with ATC to get reports

30:31

of turbulence ahead. It's something that all

30:33

the pilots will report out. Over the

30:35

Pacific Ocean, they don't have

30:38

the same kind of technology to be

30:40

able to identify where that turbulence

30:42

is. So that is actually also

30:44

more likely where you're gonna hit. Spiritual

30:46

influence. If

30:50

they hit a bubble in the air and the bubble

30:52

burst and we collapse for little bit at Bet

30:54

is Pepper De

30:55

Roy. He's a singer and bassist for

30:57

an Australian country rock band

30:59

called Hurricane Fall. That's

31:02

back. That's nice. Turn

31:04

them to my feet. Can't

31:06

don't feel right.

31:10

In July of twenty nineteen, the

31:12

band got on board an air Canada

31:15

flight

31:15

Here was AC thirty three from Vancouver

31:18

to Sydney with an unscheduled stop

31:20

in Hawaii.

31:21

Hurricane fall had just finished playing some

31:23

dates in Canada.

31:25

We all had pretty severe hangover.

31:27

And that's Luke Wildeen, a guitarist in

31:29

the band. It was our last night in

31:31

Canada, and it was successful. So

31:34

Everyone was ready for a good sleep, really.

31:36

Flight was fine until yeah. We

31:38

were just passed away, I believe. And

31:41

I was awake. But, yeah,

31:43

there was a sudden jolt and

31:46

half the plane flew into the roof.

31:49

It was just shocking.

31:51

Weldon had his seat belt

31:53

on, but Droroy didn't.

31:55

I got up, went to the toilet, came

31:57

back, was walking down the aisle, sat

31:59

down with no seat belt on. The plane

32:02

shook a

32:02

little, and in an instant, I just remember

32:05

being back on the seat with

32:07

what I thought was just I saw and

32:10

then proved to be much more that

32:12

flight attendants were awesome. They immediately

32:14

started trying to help people and people that

32:16

were bleeding and that sort of

32:18

stuff. The most disturbing thing was

32:20

that there was nothing from the public

32:22

for, like, ten minutes. I

32:24

was like, you gotta say something man.

32:26

Like, it

32:30

felt like forever. I don't know how long

32:32

it was really. But it was a

32:34

long time. And I

32:36

don't

32:36

know. He was probably busy saving our lives.

32:38

So, you know, there's that too.

32:41

The plane made an emergency landing

32:43

in Hawaii thirty seven people were

32:45

injured. The doctors in Hawaii

32:48

cleared Duroy and his

32:49

bandmates, to fly back to Australia.

32:52

When he got home, he went to the hospital.

32:54

And I was like, yeah, it doesn't feel right.

32:57

And then when the doctors showed me the CT

32:59

scan with fragments of my neck floating around.

33:01

He's like, just stop what you're doing right

33:03

now. Put me straighten the neck brace and, like, do

33:05

not move. Troy had a

33:07

broken

33:08

neck. Took them eighteen months to

33:10

recover. Turbulence is

33:12

the leading cause of accidents on

33:14

larger US commercial flights

33:16

and Its share is increasing. That's

33:19

because other types of flying accidents

33:21

have become less common, but there may be

33:23

another

33:24

reason. Sarah Nelson again.

33:26

The underlying issue here is

33:28

that turbulence is getting worse because of climate

33:30

change. The idea here is that rising

33:32

temperatures are making air currents

33:35

more unstable, and that

33:37

is essentially the definition of

33:39

turbulence. Here's Adam Yuhan.

33:42

We could go into more specific meteorological terms,

33:45

but the reality is you're going

33:47

through an air that is no longer

33:49

as stable as the air that you just came

33:51

out of. And that is why even in the

33:53

middle of a seemingly smooth

33:55

flight, a pilot will sometimes turn

33:58

on the seat belt sign. It's the biggest

34:00

risk mitigation strategy

34:02

that we have in the airplane. We

34:04

don't want people to get hurt. Nobody wants anybody

34:06

to get hurt on an airplane. That seat

34:08

belt is really there to protect you because

34:11

If you hit turbulence hard

34:12

enough, it can lift you out of that seat and

34:14

move you around to that airplane any way it wants

34:17

to. The good news is that predicting

34:19

and avoiding turbulence is getting

34:21

easier. Thirty years ago, there was

34:23

no way except for a forecast that was printed

34:26

out. And back in the day Northwest Airlines

34:28

had these turbulence plots, which were

34:30

the envy of the industry. Now a lot of

34:32

other airlines have adopted this methodology,

34:35

My Airline has probably one of the best

34:37

weather radar packages

34:40

on our tablets. We have a

34:42

different WiFi on board the airplane and

34:44

when it's working, which most of the times is

34:46

we can actually see down the road

34:49

where there could be turbulence issues. And then we

34:51

can do stuff like climb up to send,

34:53

go left, go right, navigate around it.

34:55

I wish if something I was in

34:57

person, I'd show you, you'd be blown away by this

34:59

system.

34:59

By what you can actually see. Oh my god. I mean,

35:01

you can see all the earthquakes

35:03

that are happening in the world, volcanic activity,

35:06

it's wild, and you spin the globe around and you can

35:08

see everything. It's so cool,

35:10

you know what? I just got a great idea to go to

35:12

the bosses with. I'm gonna say we should be doing

35:15

little mini documentaries and say,

35:17

hey, this is how we do all these different things. I mean, they

35:19

wouldn't be a hit with everybody, but a lot of people would

35:21

love two minute informational clips about

35:23

how things work.

35:27

And how does all that information get onto

35:29

the pilot's tablet? We're

35:32

set up with almost two different

35:34

groups. That is Warren Weston.

35:36

He is a lead meteorologist at

35:38

Delta Airlines headquarters in Atlanta.

35:41

We've got a division where we look at

35:43

upper air features, turbulence,

35:46

thunderstorms, keeping an eye on volcanoes,

35:49

ozone, all the different kinds

35:51

of things that could interrupt a

35:54

flight that's at cruise altitude. The

35:56

other side is more on the surface

35:58

side where we're looking at weather on

36:00

the ground, weather at our big

36:02

airport operations, New York, Atlanta,

36:05

Los Angeles,

36:06

and we're doing hour by hour forecasts

36:09

for those hubs.

36:10

Just describe this screen, which is a beautiful

36:13

screen, but people can't see it. What

36:15

we're looking at here is tonight's

36:17

routes that go across the North Atlantic

36:20

Ocean to Europe. So that's

36:22

these tracks. The tracks are kinda like a highway

36:24

in the sky. We're producing turbulence

36:27

forecasts and then maybe it will

36:29

show, hey, we're expecting some turbulence along

36:31

this route between thirty and thirty

36:34

five thousand. So when we take that information

36:36

to the flight planner, they might

36:38

file their flight that night

36:41

higher, maybe thirty eight thousand, forty

36:43

thousand, so that they are able to go over

36:45

or around the depicted

36:47

areas. There are a lot of

36:49

meteorologists in the world and there's a lot

36:51

of information you can buy. Why does

36:53

Delta bother to have this pretty big

36:55

many meteorologists So we've got twenty

36:57

five meteorologists. So

37:00

why is that an in house function meteorology?

37:02

We are looking at things

37:04

a lot more tailored towards

37:07

our operation.

37:08

A lot of the stuff that we produce, those

37:11

are products that they aren't getting anywhere

37:13

else. And what's the ROI on

37:15

that for the airline? Is it worth having

37:17

twenty five of

37:18

you? Yeah. I think it is because we first

37:20

of all, we're a global airline. So we're covering

37:23

our routes across the Atlantic Ocean, the

37:25

Pacific Ocean, Hawaii routes,

37:28

all the domestic routes, South and Central

37:30

America, What

37:31

about you? Why did you become a meteorologist?

37:33

I grew up out in Colorado, and I would

37:36

get frustrated when it wouldn't snow.

37:39

I wanted to go skiing and so

37:41

when I would see a forecast they would call for snow

37:44

and maybe we would only get a little

37:45

bit, the young me was very interested

37:47

in why is this happening? Why can't they get this right?

37:50

Weston's meteorology department is

37:52

one of many departments spread across

37:55

a vast expanse in a building adjacent

37:57

to the Atlanta airport. This is Delta's

38:00

OCC or operations and customer

38:02

center. The person in charge is

38:04

a man named Greg

38:05

Brandner. We meet up with him in a conference

38:08

room that feels as serious

38:10

as its name. This is our IBR,

38:12

so incident briefing room. It

38:14

is built primarily as

38:18

a command center for an incident.

38:20

If we have an incident or accident incidents

38:23

and accidents do happen. We have cyber

38:25

threats now that happen we would stand

38:27

this room up, and it's built for

38:29

senior leaders to come in and

38:31

be able to work through the incident,

38:34

be briefed, and then work it through till

38:36

the end. Brandner walks us out onto

38:38

what looks like a Wall Street trading floor.

38:41

You could call it a trading floor because there

38:43

are thousands and thousands transactions

38:45

that are taking place. What do you mean? What kind of transactions?

38:47

Whether it be a dispatch release or a flight

38:50

plan being sent or

38:52

we get a look across the room, the maintenance coordination

38:54

team could be working on an aircraft

38:57

that's broke or needs to be

38:59

routed certain way. Can you just

39:01

read down those three columns of

39:03

functions or Sure. So we've got the aircraft

39:05

routing team, airport customer

39:07

service. We've got catering

39:11

cargo charters, corporate

39:13

communications, corporate security,

39:16

both crew teams, crew tracking, crew scheduling

39:19

We have our maintenance control manager

39:21

that sits up on the bridge, the reservations,

39:24

revenue management and system

39:26

operations managers that are managing the

39:29

fleet. And this guy whose shoulder we're

39:31

kinda looking over, he's got looks to be 1234567

39:34

monitors at least what's he

39:36

doing? Six monitors and one of the other, the seventh,

39:38

as you mentioned. That's actually the phone system.

39:40

There were less a lot of video that is

39:42

presented to everybody in this room.

39:45

A lot of information comes to

39:47

them on these screens, whether it be

39:49

just the alerting or they can just look at things

39:52

to just

39:52

monitor. He's got the weather. If you were

39:54

up there, you already

39:55

always have the weather up. Because

39:57

it's such a driver of our operational

40:00

outlook can ultimately result. So

40:02

yes, there is a lot of video. We are working

40:04

hard to reduce that

40:06

footprint of monitors and try

40:08

to present it. In a more logical way,

40:10

I'll call it. Just to be clear

40:13

to someone who's listening, we're not anywhere

40:15

near a flight tower. Okay. That's a

40:17

common misconception when

40:19

I say I work at our operations in

40:22

customer center. We're not in the airport

40:24

when I say if you think of it as mission control

40:26

at NASA, right away they go, oh, you work

40:28

in the tower? No. I don't work in the tower.

40:31

If you've seen Apollo thirteen, the movie

40:33

mission control, that's kinda way

40:35

this is set up. Apollo thirteen was

40:37

one mission and we're running well over three

40:39

thousand missions a day. So that's

40:42

the level of detail we have to put fourth

40:44

for every flight, every customer, every

40:46

day. So this is our

40:49

dispatch team. This is our strategic planning

40:51

team. They're trying to maintain the schedule

40:53

integrity of an irregular operation.

40:56

I love that description. They're trying to maintain

40:58

the schedule integrity of an irregular operation.

41:01

That describes

41:01

airlines. It's it's very complex.

41:04

Every day has something come up.

41:07

No day just runs perfectly

41:09

smooth. We'll certainly have one hundred

41:11

percent completion factor days, but

41:13

that doesn't mean we didn't have to address

41:16

and I'm making this number up, you know, five thousand

41:19

disruptions of some degree. Coming

41:23

up after the break, Will even more

41:25

technology make airline travel even

41:27

safer? And will technology

41:30

ever replace the humans who

41:32

fly the planes. The real big issue

41:35

is production of pilots

41:37

has slowed. I'm

41:39

Steven Dubner. This Freakonomics Radio.

41:42

We'll be right back.

41:50

Okay. We're talking about how airline travel

41:53

got so safe, and I wanna get back to

41:55

Billy

41:55

Nolan, the acting administrator of

41:58

the Federal Aviation Administration. I

42:01

have to tie my oldest I'm the youngest in a big

42:03

family. My oldest brother was an Air

42:05

Force pilot.

42:06

Oh, cool. Yeah. Very cool. I didn't

42:08

inherit any of the

42:11

I've asked him to explain to me over the years

42:13

many times, literally how

42:15

it were the physics and the

42:17

engine. And I can't I just don't have the brain

42:19

for it. There's always time. The world is in

42:21

dire need of pilot, so you know Steven, you

42:23

may have

42:24

alternatives career there. Well, I can

42:26

assure you that my eyesight alone will preclude

42:29

me from that. But let me ask you, since you brought

42:31

it

42:31

up, the pilot shortage, how do you think about that

42:33

from your perspective? There's a couple

42:35

of dynamics in play. As

42:37

a result of the pandemic, we have

42:39

a large number of pilots who elected

42:41

to retire. And at the same

42:44

time, we didn't have at universities

42:47

or flight schools, the numbers that

42:49

we needed. Right? You could call that as

42:51

sort of a perfect storm. But as a result

42:54

of that, we've seen a real

42:56

uptake in terms of what the airlines

42:58

are doing on their side. They've

43:00

established aviation academies. And

43:03

at the same time, on the government

43:05

side, we're producing more designated pilot

43:08

examiners, mister FAA, who

43:10

certifies them. Right? Y'all get

43:12

a license with my signature on it. So at

43:14

the end of the day, we wanna make sure that they're

43:16

safe, they're ready to go.

43:20

There is a shortage broadly in

43:22

our country. lot of it was driven by

43:24

the pandemic because a lot of airline pilots

43:26

retired. That again is

43:28

Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta.

43:31

Delta alone, we had two thousand pilots

43:33

that we retired through an early incentive

43:35

arrangement that we provided them. And the

43:37

amount of training that takes to bring two thousand

43:40

new pilots in and the time it takes

43:42

has created a long

43:44

life recovery period. Then

43:46

you have that same ripple effect going on throughout

43:48

the industry. Because we didn't have a lot of pilots

43:50

on the streets and the military isn't producing as

43:53

many pilots these

43:54

days. Well, I'll speak to the military

43:56

to civilian pipeline. And

43:58

that again is Adam Yuhan, a

44:01

former air force pilot who now flies

44:03

for a major airline. Yes, that

44:05

pipeline's gotten

44:06

smaller. It's gotten smaller for

44:08

a host of reasons. Obviously, the military

44:10

has had some downsizing events.

44:13

The real big issue is production

44:16

of pilots has slowed.

44:19

And this goes back to the very first

44:21

point that we were talking about the magic

44:24

of aviation in flight. The

44:26

magic that attracted me and

44:28

that blew me away as a little kid, I

44:30

don't think it's out there as much as it

44:32

was and the whole romance of

44:35

flight and then the service aspect

44:37

of wanting to be a military aviator.

44:39

I think there's people who fear the military aviation

44:42

thinking I don't know if I have

44:44

that service bone in my body. And the

44:46

reality is I think a lot more people do

44:48

have these kind of things that they can bring

44:50

to the table in aviation And

44:52

one of the things that I'm applauding is

44:54

we're now reaching past the traditional communities

44:57

because let's face it. Aviation

45:00

is predominantly a male dominated sport.

45:03

And that is starting to be flipped on

45:05

its head just a little bit and you don't

45:07

make a pilot

45:07

overnight. You can't go to a ten week school

45:10

and have a degree in aviation

45:11

and go out and fly as a captain for

45:13

major airline. That's not how it works. takes years

45:15

to get there. And that gets us into

45:18

the economics of pilot

45:19

creation because it is not cheap.

45:22

Why would somebody pay a hundred

45:24

and fifty thousand dollars and student loans

45:26

to become a pilot when they can pay hundred and

45:28

fifty thousand dollars and student loans to become a lawyer

45:30

and they walk out with a much better paying career

45:32

in the beginning. Pilots do make

45:34

good money

45:35

eventually. At airlines like Frontier,

45:38

Alaska, and Southwest, the

45:40

first year's salary for captain ranges

45:42

from around a hundred and eighty thousand dollars a year

45:45

to two hundred and forty thousand. Although, typically,

45:47

you don't start at captain, you start

45:49

as a first officer or what used

45:52

to be called copilot. At the bigger

45:54

US airlines, like Delta, United,

45:56

and American, first year captain

45:58

salaries are in the three hundred thousands.

46:01

The problem is, as Adam Wuhan

46:03

said, pilot training takes

46:05

a long time and costs a lot of money. This

46:08

wasn't always the case and that two

46:10

is connected to the rise of safety in

46:12

commercial aviation. In two thousand

46:15

nine, a flight out of New York, New Jersey

46:17

operated by Colden Air crashed

46:19

on its approach into Buffalo, New York,

46:21

killing all forty nine people onboard

46:24

and one on the ground. The

46:26

National Transportation Safety Board determined

46:28

the crash was likely caused by pilot

46:30

error, specifically the captain's

46:32

inappropriate response to the activation

46:35

of the stick shaker, which led to an aerodynamic

46:37

stall from which the airplane did not recover.

46:40

The NTSB cited several other

46:43

contributing factors all related

46:45

to crew or airline failures.

46:48

In response to this crash, Congress

46:50

mandated that all commercial airline

46:53

pilots have at least fifteen hundred

46:55

hours of flying experience. Until

46:58

then, airlines could hire pilots with

47:00

just two hundred and fifty hours. The

47:02

FAA says there is no quantifiable

47:05

relationship between the fifteen hundred hour requirement

47:08

and airplane accidents, but

47:10

the fact remains that the Culligan crash

47:12

was the last major commercial aviation

47:15

crash in the US, and that

47:17

was in two thousand nine. This

47:19

is an astonishing safety record.

47:22

Produced as we've been hearing today by

47:24

a number of factors, including advances

47:27

in aviation tech. I asked Adam

47:29

Wuhan what he thinks the job of

47:31

pilot will look like in a few

47:33

decades. The generation that's currently

47:35

employed at the airlines and the folks who are just

47:37

starting their journeys, I

47:39

think that they're gonna be okay.

47:42

I think that there is regulation in

47:44

place, the contracts from the airlines

47:46

to the

47:46

unions, A lot of those jobs are

47:48

protected. I don't know about after

47:50

that. I don't know if we're gonna

47:52

start seeing single

47:53

pilot operation. In some, how about

47:55

a zero pilot operation? I don't ever

47:58

wanna think that way because I don't know I

48:00

love the idea of self driving cars and

48:02

the hyperloop but I also

48:05

know because I've seen it where the machine

48:08

does something that just doesn't make

48:09

sense. When

48:10

you say you've seen it, what do you mean? I've

48:12

flown both Boeing and Airbus products,

48:15

and I have seen both of those

48:17

products do something that was unexpected.

48:20

I've seen a system

48:22

fail or a weather radar

48:24

return come up and it looks

48:26

nominal or not important and you fly

48:29

close to it and you're getting

48:31

moderate to severe level of turbulence or

48:33

you're in icing that you didn't expect. And

48:36

I don't know if our predict of technology is

48:39

quite there yet. I'm not saying it won't be. I'm

48:41

definitely not saying that because I do believe we will

48:43

be able to figure all these things out. And that's

48:45

great. That's progress. The other thing

48:47

is is your emotional response

48:50

of getting on an airplane where there's no voice

48:52

that comes from the front. don't know how many people

48:54

are ready for that. I know I'm not I want somebody

48:56

to be able to, if the machine

48:58

goes

48:59

wrong, can at least shut the machine off and turn it

49:01

back on again, control out to lead it back into

49:03

correction.

49:07

I never want to be on an airplane without a Delta

49:09

pilot at the wheel.

49:11

Ed Bastian again. Our planes do

49:13

have a lot of autonomy. They are operated largely

49:15

by technology and pilots are there

49:17

to manage the technology and intervene

49:19

as necessary. But there are other

49:21

companies that are developing platforms

49:24

where planes can be controlled through remote

49:26

operation. And the argument is that they're

49:28

safer. I won't get on one and I think

49:30

it's going to take quite a number of years

49:32

before consumers will

49:34

eventually be willing to get on one.

49:37

Although a human pilot can

49:39

override a confused computer, the

49:41

primary cause of most fatal accidents

49:44

is human error. This

49:46

past January, there was a near

49:48

miss at JFK Airport in New York

49:50

City when two planes nearly collided

49:52

on a

49:53

runway. Delta flight nineteen

49:55

forty three was getting ready

49:57

to take off. Delta nineteen forty

49:59

three canceled takeoff plans. Of the

50:01

nineteen forty three canceled takeoff plans.

50:03

That's an air traffic controller telling the Delta

50:05

flight to abort takeoff. There was

50:08

another plane on its runway. Just

50:10

a thousand feet ahead. The pilots

50:12

of that plane, an American Airlines

50:14

jet, had made a wrong turn.

50:16

Alright. And oh, it

50:18

does sound like quirk. Before

50:20

we get to zero pilot planes,

50:23

the interim step is probably one pilot

50:25

planes. After

50:26

all, technology in the cockpit just

50:28

keeps getting better. Adam Yuhan

50:31

again. The next generation of

50:33

these airplanes it's the starship enterprise

50:35

or even further along the line. So

50:37

you bring on this new technology that

50:39

has made a safer weather radar. It's far superior

50:42

than it's ever been before. Traffic collision

50:44

avoidance systems, ground proximity warning

50:46

systems that we have. The fact that we

50:49

now communicate when we're flying over the

50:51

ocean instead of listening to a high

50:53

frequency radio that's spinning out

50:55

static for seven hours, you

50:57

basically have a text message system

51:00

with somebody on the ground, which then

51:02

keeps me from getting audio

51:04

fatigue. So I am now less tired

51:06

as I fly through the air. So when something

51:08

bad does

51:09

happen, I can react. It's an

51:11

interesting point you raised about audio fatigue.

51:13

I guess that's a case where better

51:15

technology lets you be better at doing

51:18

the things that you do as a human.

51:20

Are there other examples of technologies that

51:22

you feel accentuate or

51:25

highlight your human abilities? One

51:28

that's very, very small, but

51:30

for instance, some aircraft have what's called

51:32

auto trim. So trim is

51:34

the basic aerodynamic 101

51:37

here is a tab on parts of the

51:39

airplane that you can trim off pressure

51:42

so the airplane is easier to control or

51:44

maneuver. Well, over the

51:46

years, they have developed an auto trim

51:48

system on some airplanes where there's no

51:50

button for us to actually manually

51:52

manipulate the trim tab. And the

51:54

computer does it for us. So

51:56

now instead of me having to click

51:59

click click click and move that trim tab as

52:01

I'm moving the stick, all I do is

52:03

point the airplane in the position I want it to go

52:05

and it goes there. Now people say,

52:07

well, that's easy. Yeah, you're right. It's totally

52:09

easy. But when you're flying into a really crowded airspace

52:11

situation, and you have weather,

52:14

now you have a little less to concentrate on.

52:16

Those things do make you sort of super human

52:18

because of your situational awareness, which

52:20

is critical for pilots. Instead

52:22

of it being taken away, your situational

52:25

awareness now has

52:25

expanded. You know where other airplanes are. You know

52:28

what's happening on the runway. You you understand

52:30

all those kind of things. Let

52:33

me ask you this, Adam. Are

52:36

pilots normal people

52:38

who happen to fly airplanes? Or

52:40

are you all sort of weirdos? A

52:43

little from column a and a lot from column

52:45

b.

52:46

I think when you meet us

52:49

as a whole at a party, you'd

52:52

know something was maybe a little different

52:54

about that person. There's an old joke.

52:56

How do you know that a fighter pilot's at your

52:58

party is he'll tell you. And

53:01

the reality is most pilots like to

53:03

talk about aviation, especially when they're

53:05

new and younger in the field. It kind

53:08

of feels like part of who we are. And

53:10

no matter how much we might try to deny that,

53:12

kind of ingrained in our personality.

53:17

Also ingrained in the pilot personality,

53:19

from what I can tell, is an absolute

53:22

obsession with safety. I

53:24

think back to something, my brother, Joe, the

53:26

former Air Force pilot once told me,

53:28

we had just had a family reunion on

53:30

the east coast. He lives out west

53:32

and he had flown in on his own plane.

53:34

It is a tiny little experimental jet

53:37

that he built. It's basically a motorcycle with

53:40

wings. On the last night of the

53:42

reunion, we were all having an early dinner

53:44

together in the hotel restaurant. It

53:46

was only around five thirty or six PM,

53:49

and Joe stood up, said he'd enjoy

53:51

the reunion, and now he was saying goodbye.

53:53

And we all said, Joe. It's so early

53:55

what your hurry. He said he

53:57

had several hours of flight planning

54:00

ahead of

54:00

him. And then he said, there are

54:03

old pilots And there are

54:05

bold pilots, but there are no old

54:07

bold pilots. Here

54:09

again is Adam Yuhan. I've

54:11

done this for a long time. When I

54:13

was younger, I sure as hell wanted people

54:16

in the military to appreciate what I was doing.

54:18

And then when I got to the airline, I thought the same

54:20

thing, but I realized after the

54:22

years that go by, the best thing that can ever

54:24

happen is I never make

54:26

a highlight reel. Everything went smooth.

54:29

I tire and I get a nice lithograph signed

54:31

by my friends. The reality is

54:33

as things do run really smoothly and

54:35

that's why when people the

54:37

traveling public sees the hiccup.

54:40

It is so eye gougingly

54:42

painful because now all of a sudden you're

54:44

delayed twenty five minutes and it's like Think

54:46

about it for a second. You're hurtling through the air

54:48

at five hundred and thirty miles an hour going

54:50

from New York to Los Angeles. You're going

54:53

to be there in less than

54:55

five hours. Less than two hundred

54:57

years ago, it took people twenty eight

54:59

days or more to travel at same distance

55:02

and most of them didn't make it. So I

55:04

think the perspective is needed. And it's even needed

55:06

for guys in the industry. Sometimes we need a little

55:08

bit of that too. I hate to say this because

55:10

it does become a job sometimes and you forget

55:13

my favorite thing about flying. It's still to this

55:15

day, it's my favorite thing. It's when it's cloudy outside

55:17

and you punch through the cloud layer and you

55:19

get that first glint of

55:21

sun. It's it's It's still.

55:23

It blows my mind every time I do it.

55:25

Coming up next time, in the third and final

55:28

episode of Freakonomics Radio takes to

55:30

guys. It's

55:33

time to sort out the economics. Airlines

55:36

face incredibly volatile demand.

55:39

And they have huge fixed cost.

55:41

How do airlines make their money?

55:44

Are tickets too expensive? Or

55:47

too cheap? And what's it like to run

55:49

a business where one of your major costs fluctuates

55:52

wildly? When you have

55:54

a commodity that's as volatile as

55:56

fuel in your hedge on

55:58

longer term basis, it's very expensive.

56:00

And what about the pollution from burning

56:03

all that fuel? It's next time

56:05

on the show. Until then, take

56:07

care of yourself. And if you can,

56:09

someone else too. Freakonomics

56:13

is produced by Stitcher and Red Bud Radio, you

56:15

can find our entire archive on any

56:17

podcast app or at dot com

56:19

where we also publish a transcript and show

56:21

notes. This episode was produced

56:23

by Ryan Kelly and mixed by Greg Ripon

56:26

with help from Jeremy Johnston and

56:28

in Atlanta from Evan Profont. Special

56:31

thanks to all our listeners who sent in their

56:33

travel diaries and to Lilian Bates

56:35

for helping organize them. Our staff

56:37

also includes Zac Bupinski, Morgan

56:39

Levy, Katherine Moncure, Alina Coleman,

56:41

Rebecca Lee Douglas, Julie Canford, Eleanor

56:44

Osborn, Jasmine Klinger, Daria Klenert,

56:46

Ematorel, Lear Voutage and Elsa

56:48

Hernandez. The Freakonomics Radio

56:50

Network's executive team is Neil

56:52

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56:54

Steven Dubner, Our theme song is

56:56

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56:59

of our music was composed by Luis Guerra.

57:01

And thanks to hurricane fall for

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57:05

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57:08

always, thanks for listening. Can

57:13

I tell you, our guests are never early,

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