0:00

Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security.

0:02

How long did you go out trick or treating with your

0:04

kids this year? I don't know, because we're recording this

0:06

right before I do, but I plan to do it for

0:08

about an hour. An hour?

0:11

Maybe more, we'll see. He's not going

0:13

to last more than that. When you're out of the house, it's great to

0:15

have SimpliSafe keeping your home secure. And

0:18

right now, you can get up to 50% off any new system.

0:21

Woo!

0:22

Good deal. Good deal. I steal it twice

0:24

the price. I set up a SimpliSafe system and

0:27

couldn't believe how easy it was and how reliable

0:30

and useful and good it was. I

0:32

think you should get one. And it

0:34

won't stop people from egging your house though. Hey, can't

0:37

stop that. That's true, you gotta have candy for that. People still doing

0:39

that? With the price of eggs these days? In this Biden

0:41

economy? Nobody's throwing eggs at houses. With

0:46

new 24-7 live guard protection and the smart alarm

0:48

wireless indoor camera, monitoring

0:50

agents can see and speak to intruders, helping

0:52

stop crime in real time. A powerful technology

0:55

exclusively from SimpliSafe. Satisfaction

0:57

is backed by SimpliSafe's money-back guarantee. Try SimpliSafe

0:59

for 60 days risk-free. If you don't

1:02

love it, return your system for a full

1:04

refund. For a limited time, Pod

1:06

Save America listeners get a special 50% off any

1:09

SimpliSafe system with a fast protect plan. Visit

1:11

simplisafe.com slash crooked. That's simplisafe.com

1:14

slash crooked. There's no safe

1:15

like SimpliSafe.

1:17

Welcome to Pod Save

1:20

America. I'm

1:38

Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's

1:40

show, George Santos lives to lie

1:42

another day. Donald Trump is lapping

1:44

the field in the early states. His

1:47

Republican rivals in the press are finally starting to point out

1:50

that the old man has lost a step, and RFK

1:52

Jr. is taking more support from Trump

1:54

in two new polls.

1:56

But first, MAGA Mike Johnson

1:59

is living the dream. up the nickname in his first week

2:01

on the job, Dan. Even though

2:03

there is a bipartisan majority

2:05

in Congress to fund the government, he has

2:07

decided to start with a bill that

2:09

would fund $14 billion

2:12

in aid to Israel by making

2:14

it easier for the

2:16

richest Americans to cheat on their taxes,

2:19

which doesn't really fund the aid at all. Cutting

2:22

the IRS budget will add another $12.5 billion

2:25

to the deficit. Johnson

2:28

then reportedly told Senate Republicans that

2:30

he's open to a separate bill that

2:32

would provide some support for Ukraine, though

2:34

not as much as President Biden wants, and

2:37

only if it's paired with beefed-up

2:40

border security. He also wants to blow up

2:42

the bipartisan budget deal that Biden agreed to

2:44

with Kevin McCarthy by demanding deeper

2:46

cuts, which Democrats will never go for,

2:49

which means there may be a

2:51

government shutdown in our future. Fun.

2:54

So Dan, it seems like we're right back to where

2:56

we were when McCarthy had the job,

2:59

only with a speaker who cares even less about passing

3:02

anything and even more about

3:04

keeping the MAGA base happy. Sure

3:06

enough, House Republicans had their best week of

3:09

online fundraising of the cycle since

3:11

Johnson was elected last week. Wasn't

3:13

last week? I can't even remember. What's your read

3:15

on all this, Dan? I

3:18

think we knew that whomever the

3:20

Republicans picked was going to be an unserious,

3:24

cynical, MAGA

3:26

ass. That's the job requirement. And the only question

3:28

was, which unserious,

3:30

cynical, MAGA ass were they going to agree on? And they picked

3:32

Mike Johnson. And I do think it's worth

3:35

understanding exactly what he's doing on Israel aid

3:37

to realize just how cynical and unserious he is.

3:40

Obviously, we should stipulate he was never going to pass

3:43

Biden's $106 billion

3:45

appropriation request as written.

3:48

He's Republican. That's what happens to divide a government.

3:50

He has a right to change it. We can also

3:52

stipulate that his own politics, both

3:54

in the country and in the Republican caucus, meant he could

3:56

not pass Israel aid and Ukraine aid together.

3:59

who's always going to separate that out. So we had

4:02

a few options at that point. One would be to

4:04

just pass the $14 billion with

4:06

no cuts, no riders, just pass it

4:08

as is, he supports

4:10

what's in it. And that would be consistent

4:13

with how these things are usually handled, all

4:15

these emergency aid requests are handled. That's

4:17

how Mike Johnson certainly voted for them when he was, when

4:19

Donald Trump was president, how the COVID packages were handled.

4:22

It's how the Trump tax cut was handled, which

4:24

is how we know that Mike Johnson doesn't really care about cuts.

4:27

So once you add cuts, your choice could

4:29

be like you've decided on principle,

4:32

which we know he doesn't really believe, but it's principle, we are going,

4:34

we feel like the deficit is too high, we should pay for this.

4:37

And Democrats held that position when it came

4:39

to Bush's constant requests of funding for

4:42

the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. And

4:44

one way, if that is your actual position, which you could say is

4:47

I'm going to find $14 billion in

4:49

largely inoffensive bipartisan cuts,

4:52

raising custom fees, finding unused

4:54

money here, fraud, wasting, abuse, all the sort of

4:56

budget money that's out there. Gimmicks.

4:59

Gimmicks, really. But that's a way to do it that allows you

5:02

to have cuts and also have a bill that can pass the House and

5:04

the Senate. Did he do that? No.

5:06

He picked $14 billion

5:09

in funding for President Biden's signature legislative

5:11

agenda. And to do so

5:13

in a way that it try and very specifically

5:16

splinter the Democrats and make this a very,

5:18

very tough effort for him, which he knows will do two things. It's

5:20

dead on arrival in the Senate, the president won't sign it. And it means

5:22

now that it's going to take longer to

5:24

get the aid to Israel. So he picked the absolute

5:27

most cynical strategy possible. And it's even

5:29

dumb because the cuts he picked actually don't reduce

5:31

the deficit. And still now, even because

5:33

we know that collecting more taxes from rich people,

5:36

raises money, doesn't lose money, he

5:38

failed on all of his tests. It's just an

5:41

utterly ridiculous approach to

5:43

this. Well, so now Democrats

5:46

have a choice. They are going

5:48

to have to either vote for a bill that

5:51

adds to the deficit by making life

5:53

easier for rich tax cheats

5:56

or vote against a bill that helps Israel.

5:58

If I were...

5:59

advising a Democrat in a competitive district,

6:02

I would tell them to vote against the bill, and then I would run

6:04

an ad saying that Republicans tried

6:06

to exploit the crisis in the Middle East as a way

6:08

to help their rich friends cheat on their taxes. But

6:11

what would you do? I think that is the exact

6:13

right message that Democrats should be using about this.

6:15

I think the approach that Hakeem

6:17

Jeffries will take here is to keep

6:20

the number of Democratic votes down as much

6:22

as possible, but give some room

6:24

to these members of Congress in very

6:27

tough districts who are going to be under some

6:29

pressure to vote. Ultimately, I think

6:31

the significance of voting for this or not voting

6:33

for this are going to matter close to

6:35

zero

6:36

by November.

6:37

It's like there are a thousand votes now. We

6:39

also know that facts, if you will,

6:41

are not a huge part of the Republican message. So whether you vote,

6:44

if you vote for it, it's not like all of a sudden they're going to say, well,

6:46

that takes that attack off the table. We'll do something else.

6:49

But if, you know, I could see the perspective

6:51

where a small handful of people in very tough districts

6:54

get a pass to vote for it, and it doesn't really

6:56

affect the overall outcome because we're just, this is all

6:59

just a dumb dance. It's wasting time

7:01

in the end because this bill is not becoming law. You

7:04

think that the Democrats in tough districts

7:07

would be scared of an

7:09

ad that said you voted against a bill for

7:11

Israel, even though they could also

7:14

run an ad saying that this was just a way

7:16

to get help of rich people? My

7:18

general experience is that Democrats in tough districts are

7:21

scared of their shadow. Yeah. So

7:23

are they right to be scared of it? Probably

7:26

not. But I imagine they're also under some

7:29

pressure. The politics are very tricky and

7:31

very intense right now. And so I just understand,

7:33

I have no doubt that there's a handful of Democrats who are

7:35

coming to a keem jump reason saying, can we

7:37

please get a pass to vote for this? Because I just, I've,

7:40

I'm taking on so much water in so many ways, because

7:42

I'm in a Trump district or it's incredibly

7:44

purple district and politics don't feel great for

7:46

Democrat right now. I don't want one

7:48

more brick on the load. And I imagine that there are

7:50

some people who will give that pass too. There's

7:53

been growing opposition to more support for Ukraine

7:56

among Republicans in Congress and the public.

7:59

And now Johnson's basically saying it'll

8:01

only go through if Congress also agrees

8:03

on border security. That seems

8:06

highly unlikely to me. What do you

8:08

think? Can you see a resolution here? No,

8:10

I can't. I think this is really, really hard.

8:13

There has been a coalition in the Senate, led

8:15

in part by Mitch McConnell, to ensure

8:17

that he can work in a bipartisan way with President Biden

8:20

and the Senate Democrats to force the House to

8:22

pass Ukraine aid. That's why he has, to date,

8:25

supported keeping Ukraine and Israel

8:27

aid together. But he is

8:29

under, from all the reporting I've read, tremendous

8:32

pressure within his own caucus to back down

8:34

from that. We

8:36

are really in a situation where there's pretty irreconcilable

8:39

differences between what Republicans would want

8:41

and what Democrats can agree to, and

8:44

combined with their, I think, very

8:46

correct substantive belief that if we do not get

8:48

more aid to Ukraine, it's going to be a huge win

8:51

for Putin and Ukraine's sovereignty at risk. I

8:55

mean, I could see Democrats probably going for a little

8:57

less Ukraine aid than Biden asked for

8:59

and some extra money for border

9:02

security, but it doesn't seem

9:04

like that's what Republicans want. It

9:06

seems like some Republicans want no aid for Ukraine, some want

9:08

a lot less. And then on the border, it doesn't

9:11

seem like they're just going to be happy with more funding for

9:13

border security. They want policy changes that

9:15

are going to restrict immigration, which I don't

9:17

think Democrats will go for. There's

9:20

already $11 billion for beefed up border security

9:22

funding in the bill by NASA, and they've already said

9:24

no to that because Democrats are open to it because we actually need

9:26

more funding to manage what's happening down there. Based

9:29

on what we know of one week of MAGA Mike, they're

9:32

going to specifically demand policies they

9:34

know splinter Democrats, not because they're

9:36

good policy, not because they actually support them. It is about trying

9:38

to drive a wedge in the Democratic coalition. It's

9:41

a lot of shit sandwiches coming down the pike.

9:44

Yes, it's a real shit sandwich buffet, if you will.

9:49

Okay, well, the House did accomplish something this week.

9:51

They voted against a motion by several New

9:53

York Republicans to expel George

9:56

Santos by a count of 213 to 179. with 24

10:01

Republicans voting to expel and 31

10:04

Democrats voting not to expel.

10:07

The House also voted against Marjorie

10:09

Taylor Greene's motion to censure Rashida Tlaib

10:12

for speaking at a pro-Palestinian rally

10:14

at the Capitol. All the Democrats plus 23

10:17

Republicans voted against the

10:19

motion to censure. Marj was not

10:21

happy. She said the Republicans

10:23

who voted against censure were rhinos who

10:26

have joined the Hamas caucus. She's

10:29

just lovely. One colleague, one

10:31

Republican colleague, called her a very

10:33

charming lady. It

10:36

was a lot of sarcasm there in

10:38

case you couldn't tell. I love it when you call her Marj. Marj,

10:41

yes, Marj Marj. Two questions. Why

10:44

do you think those Democrats voted against expelling

10:46

Santos and why do you think those 23

10:49

Republicans decided to save Tlaib

10:51

from that stupid censure? Do

10:53

you remember how our old boss, Barack Obama, used to say

10:55

that Democrats were born with a responsibility gene? That

10:58

even in moments of maximum political opportunity

11:00

we feel the need to do the right thing? Most

11:03

of these Democrats, and I specifically went and looked for Katie Porter,

11:06

who voted, who's in this primary with two other

11:08

Democrats, Schiff and Barbara Lee, who

11:10

voted to expel and she voted against.

11:13

And her argument was that he

11:15

is deserving of due process. There's an ethics committee investigation

11:18

and that should conclude before you

11:20

take up expulsion, which is a very,

11:23

very serious, well thought-out position

11:26

that will frankly probably get lost in this media environment.

11:30

You know, I read, I did not see

11:32

Katie's statement. I saw Jamie Raskin's

11:34

statement and he said, he

11:37

also voted against expelling. He said, I'm a Constitution

11:39

guy. The House has expelled five people,

11:42

three for joining the Confederacy as traitors

11:44

to the Union, and two after they were convicted

11:46

of criminal offenses. Santos has not yet

11:48

been convicted, nor has he been found guilty of ethics

11:50

offenses in the House. He's a bad president.

11:53

He said, I can also think of like four or five House Democrats

11:55

that Republicans would like to expel without

11:57

a conviction. And I just don't want to go down that line.

12:00

that road. I have to say, reading

12:02

that statement, I'm somewhat persuaded.

12:04

I do think it is a dangerous

12:07

thing to start expelling people from Congress

12:10

with, forget it, even about obviously

12:13

no conviction, but also no internal

12:15

process from the House Ethics Committee that found

12:17

anything. It's like, we can all wait for

12:19

this. Even if you want to go pure

12:21

politics, it does seem like

12:24

no one's too scared about running against George

12:26

Santos in 2024. It seems

12:30

like some of these New York House Republicans put

12:33

forward the motion to expel him because

12:35

they're nervous about the politics, and the longer George

12:37

Santos is in Congress embarrassing

12:39

them, the worse it is for them and the worse the politics

12:42

are. I'm not even convinced that it's

12:44

the best politics to get

12:47

him out of Congress right now. Yeah,

12:49

I think that's right. The point of this resolution put

12:51

forward by the Republicans was so that they know that

12:53

this is going to be a huge issue in New

12:55

York in 2024. Most of

12:58

them are in districts that Joe Biden won in 2020, and they are definitely

13:00

afraid of having

13:02

George Santos be a huge political problem for them. So

13:04

it's not particularly serious. I agree with you. I am

13:08

broadly persuaded by the idea

13:10

that on all these things, censure,

13:13

expelling people from their committees, expelling

13:15

people from Congress, we have reached a level of ridiculousness

13:18

and an unseriousness that does not fit

13:20

with the historical precedents that you want, and we're

13:22

sort of in a tit for tat. Now, can Democrats

13:24

unilaterally disarm in this process? No,

13:27

but on the merits, I think what Raskin and Porter and

13:29

others said was correct. And

13:31

look, you can say, I'm sure some people are thinking,

13:33

well, they would do that to us.

13:37

Do you really think that Republicans would

13:40

vote not to expel when in a situation like that?

13:42

And like, yeah, maybe who knows what they would do?

13:45

I do know that 23 Republicans found

13:47

it within themselves not to censure Rashida Tlaib

13:50

when they could have easily done that. And so

13:52

there's some that have a responsibility gene somewhere

13:54

left in their body. But

13:57

I also think that like, if we're going to be. the

14:00

party about democracy and rule of law,

14:02

then we should like wait until someone's

14:05

convicted to expel them, or at the very least,

14:07

is found guilty within a house ethics process

14:09

because like I think George Sanders is a fucking

14:11

joke. I think it's very likely it's gonna

14:13

be found guilty. There's a lot of charges, a lot

14:15

of evidence, but again, like we can't adjudicate

14:19

these things through the press and social

14:21

media and just our feelings about it. Like

14:24

you actually do need a process before you start

14:26

kicking people out of Congress. The podcast

14:28

where we all came to argue that George

14:31

Santos should stay in Congress. If

14:34

there's one thing you get from this podcast today,

14:36

it's that George Santos should stay in Congress. Make

14:39

that the YouTube title, Elijah. We're

14:42

gonna see that clip online. Okay, we'll

14:44

be right back with more news, but before we go to break, a

14:46

few quick housekeeping notes, some pretty

14:48

cool news. This weekend we're headed to Chicago

14:51

to interview our old boss, Barack

14:53

Obama, on the 15-year anniversary

14:55

of his 2008 election. I

14:58

feel old, Dan. You

15:00

do? That was 15

15:03

years ago. I know. I'm

15:05

staying across the street from the old campaign

15:08

HQ and I'm walking slower

15:10

down those streets these days. I know

15:13

I'm heading there after this. We'll be chatting

15:15

with the former president about what's at stake in 2024, how to strengthen

15:18

our democracy, and which of us he still

15:20

thinks about the mode.

15:24

I did not read that until just now. Follow

15:26

Pod Save America on Instagram, TikTok, and the

15:29

platform formerly known as Twitter for live updates

15:31

from our interview and catch the full conversation

15:33

on next Tuesday's pod. Also,

15:36

Pod Save America tickets for our November 10th

15:39

show in New Orleans are still

15:41

on sale. You can come out and see us live.

15:45

Many people are calling us the Mardi Gras

15:47

of political podcast recordings. Where does

15:49

this come from? Here's the

15:51

good news. We'll be joined by Tim Miller, our pal Tim Miller, guest

15:54

Devontae Lewis, and more. Who

15:56

knows, maybe Dan will throw us some beads. Tickets

16:02

are going fast. Sure,

16:05

I'll throw beads. Alright, Dan's

16:07

gonna throw beads. Head to crooked.com

16:09

slash events to get yours today. Tickets, not beads.

16:21

Pod Save America is brought to you by Kariuma. Kariumas

16:24

have been our go-to sneakers for a while now because

16:26

they're really comfortable. They'll go with everything, and

16:28

they're made with consciously sourced materials.

16:31

I wear Kariumas all the time. I just

16:33

got a new pair of white ones and a pair

16:35

of gray ones. Really crazy with the colors,

16:37

huh? Last year we collaborated with Kariuma

16:40

to create No Steps Back Sneakers, and

16:42

we can't believe they have now designed

16:44

a second limited edition collaboration with

16:46

us. That's right. The Love It or Leave It

16:49

sneaker. These shoes have

16:51

a colorful design with lots of Easter eggs. I

16:54

mean, not Taylor Swift level Easter eggs? Yeah,

16:56

that's right. We're not insane. Just fun stuff

16:58

like pundit on a surfboard. I don't know, I think

17:00

you should have gone a little

17:03

deeper with some of these Easter eggs. Yeah, it's like,

17:05

is that pundit with Carly Kloss? Plus,

17:09

a portion of the proceeds from every pair sold

17:12

is donated to VSA's Every Last Vote Fund.

17:15

Our first Kariuma collab sold out super

17:17

fast, so if you want a pair for yourself

17:19

or the Love It fan in your life, God

17:21

help that person. Make sure to snag one now.

17:24

They make the perfect gift for the holiday season with free

17:26

return. They're awesome. Check them out. Just head to

17:28

cricut.com slash store. That's cricut.com slash store. This

17:32

show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Talk about how

17:34

you feel about the end of the year season. Do

17:36

you look forward to the holidays? Maybe you struggle with seasonal

17:38

blues. Share anything that comes to mind. I

17:41

mean, I don't know. Yeah, so we got

17:43

a lot of tours, then we go to the holidays, then I'm

17:45

having another child. So yeah, there's a lot. We're on... There's

17:48

a lot on my plate. Look, your pod

17:50

boys are running ragged. A

17:53

little ragged right now. And you know what? We need

17:55

to stop and talk about our feelings. That's

17:58

why you need 30 minutes. If

18:00

you're thinking of starting therapy, give BetterHelp a try. It's

18:03

entirely online, designed to be

18:05

convenient, flexible, and suited to your

18:07

schedule. You just fill out a brief questionnaire to

18:09

get matched with a licensed therapist and switch therapists

18:11

any time for no additional

18:14

charge. Therapy can be a bright spot

18:16

amid all the stress and change, something to look forward

18:18

to to make you feel grounded and to give you

18:20

the tools to manage everything going

18:23

on. Find your bright spot this season with BetterHelp. Visit

18:25

betterhelp.com.psa today to get 10% off

18:28

your first month. That's betterhelp.com.psa. Pottsdave

18:33

America is brought to you by SmileActives. Have you ever

18:35

wished that you had a whiter and brighter smile? Oh yeah. Of

18:37

course. very

18:40

expensive and it's not just the price. You also

18:42

have to book the appointment and schedule time away from

18:44

work or family to fit in a dentist's

18:46

office chair while undergoing the procedure. It's

18:49

a hassle. Fortunately, now you can try SmileActives

18:51

at home or anywhere, anytime. SmileActives

18:54

offers a safe and affordable alternative to those expensive

18:57

whitening procedures. SmileActives

18:59

is the whitening boost your favorite toothpaste needs to give you the smile

19:01

you deserve. Simply add SmileActives

19:04

Pro Whitening Gel to your regular toothpaste. It's

19:07

been formulated with PolyClean technology to boost

19:09

stain removal and deliver active whitening ingredients

19:11

into teeth, grooves, and crannies to get better whitening.

19:14

97% of SmileActives users in a clinical trial reported

19:17

up to six shades whiter on average, all

19:19

within 30 days. SmileActives

19:21

is so important to me that we just

19:23

went on a trip, we did

19:26

some shows, and I remembered the SmileActives,

19:28

didn't remember my toothbrush. Oh my gosh. Yes,

19:31

I had to get one from the hotel. Visit smileactives.com.com

19:34

today to receive our special buy one get one

19:36

free offer with auto delivery plus free shipping and handling.

19:39

That's smileactives.com.com. Terms and

19:41

conditions apply. See site for details. Pots

19:44

of America is brought to you by Rocket Money. So

19:47

we've used Rocket Money when it was called something else.

19:49

I don't remember what it was called. Anyway, it's

19:51

great because if you have a bunch of subscriptions

19:54

that you keep forgetting to cancel

19:56

and then they just keep charging you every month, Rocket

19:59

Money, you...

19:59

It goes through finds all your subscriptions and

20:02

it cancels anything you want us cancel. Yeah,

20:04

it's great It's a personal finance app that finds

20:06

and cancels your unwanted subscriptions Monitors

20:09

your spending also and helps you lower your

20:11

bills all in one place with over 5 million

20:13

users and counting Rocket money has helped save

20:15

its customers an average of seven hundred and twenty dollars a year

20:17

and one billion dollars in total savings So far

20:20

rocket money can even negotiate to lower your bills

20:22

for you by up to 20% All

20:24

you have to do is take a picture of your bill and rocket money takes

20:26

care of the rest Rocket money also lets

20:29

you monitor all your expenses in one place

20:31

Recommends custom budgets based on your past spending

20:34

and they'll even send you notifications when

20:36

you've reached your spending limits With

20:38

rocket money you can easily cancel the ones you

20:40

don't want with just the press of a button No

20:42

more long hold times or annoying emails with customer

20:44

service rocket money does all the work for

20:47

you Stop wasting money on things you don't

20:49

use cancel your unwanted subscriptions and manage

20:51

your money the easy way by going to rocket

20:53

money.com slash crooked that's rocket money.com

20:55

slash crooked rocket money slash

20:58

crooked All

21:02

right, let's talk about 2024 in

21:04

the Republican primary two

21:06

new early state polls show an incredibly

21:09

tight race for second place

21:12

With just 74 days to go until

21:14

the Iowa caucuses the Des Moines Register

21:16

poll The very best in the business

21:19

maybe the most accurate poll in the entire country

21:21

shows Trump at 43% DeSantis

21:25

at 16% Haley also

21:27

at 16% Tim Scott

21:29

at 7% and Christie

21:31

and Vivek at 4% and

21:34

a CNN poll of South Carolina shows

21:37

Trump at Haley

21:42

is at 22% DeSantis

21:44

is at 11% and love

21:46

its guy Tim Scott with

21:48

only 6% in his home State

21:52

he is the senator from South Carolina

21:55

and he is pulling 6% After

21:58

a lot of money spent High

22:00

in AIM ID, especially in his state, 6% for

22:03

Tim Scott. Not dropping

22:05

out, tells us that he guarantees he's gonna get

22:07

one or two in Iowa, which

22:10

is fucking hilarious. So the race for

22:12

second could get pretty heated at the debate

22:14

next week. And

22:16

Nikki Haley just gave us a preview of

22:19

what that might look like when she did

22:21

an interview with Charlamagne on The Daily

22:23

Show this week. Let's listen to the clip. Are

22:25

you wearing higher heels than Ron DeSantis

22:27

next week at the debate so you can look taller than him?

22:31

On the stage? I don't

22:33

know, we'll have to figure that out.

22:35

I can tell you, I've always talked about my high

22:37

heels. I've never hid

22:40

that from anybody. I've always said don't wear them

22:42

if you can't run in them. So we'll see if he can run

22:45

in them.

22:45

This

22:48

is the whole thing now, Dan, that DeSantis

22:51

is wearing lifts in his shoes. There's

22:53

like articles about this now. Don

22:55

Jr's having some fun with it. He's been having some

22:57

fun with it for a while. This

22:59

is what Ronnie D is dealing with. And

23:02

you know what? I'm enjoying it.

23:06

I also think that Nikki Haley, not to just give

23:08

her some advice, but should have just said, I

23:10

don't need to, I'm taller than him in bare feet. It's

23:13

a good line. No. Nikki Haley, we know

23:15

she's a listener, a big fan. If

23:18

you're listening before the debate next week, Dan

23:21

just gave you the line. So, all right,

23:23

so during our last show, we played a little fantasy

23:26

politics and I sketched out

23:28

a scenario where everyone but Nikki Haley

23:30

drops out so she can run against Trump in a one-on-one

23:32

race. Based on these polls, how do you think that

23:34

would go? Well, not great is what I

23:36

would say.

23:39

A

23:42

couple of things. Let's start with the Iowa polls. So any

23:45

Iowa poll, 61% of

23:47

Trump's voters say they've

23:49

made up their mind and are not changing it. That is

23:52

an unprecedentedly large number. Steve

23:54

Kranacki pointed out that the last candidate

23:57

to have a significant lead and nowhere near

23:59

as big a lead as Trump. in a Republican primary was George

24:01

W. Bush in 2000. And he

24:03

generally had 20 to 30% of his vote was

24:06

fully committed. So Trump has a locked-in

24:10

electorate. They asked about enthusiasm, too. 87% of

24:14

his voters are either extremely

24:16

enthusiastic, 47%, or

24:19

very enthusiastic, 40%. That

24:21

is wild. He's

24:23

quite popular among them, mega-base. The

24:25

base named after his campaign message, yeah. Yeah,

24:28

that's true. That's true. And the other thing that

24:30

is notable in there is of Ron

24:32

DeSantis's whopping 16% of voters, 41% of

24:37

them have Trump as their

24:39

second choice. So if Ron DeSantis

24:42

were to drop out, those votes don't

24:44

accrue to Haley. A

24:46

portion of them accrue to Trump, which actually put him over 50

24:49

in that state. To

24:51

me, that sort of tells the story of the entire Republican

24:53

primary in 2024, which

24:56

is that Ron DeSantis is

24:58

the only candidate who can

25:01

draw from the mega-base. If you

25:03

look at who Haley's supporters

25:06

are, they tend to be independent,

25:08

college-educated, just sort

25:11

of the, I don't want to say anti-Trump,

25:14

but people who are willing

25:16

to look beyond Trump, right? People who either

25:18

aren't favorable towards Trump or who

25:20

are looking around for another

25:23

alternative. That's Haley's, that's

25:25

who's Haley's consolidating. But that

25:28

part of the Republican Party is not nearly enough

25:30

to win. The only candidate who

25:33

can draw from both the mega-base and

25:35

the group of people that Haley's drawing from,

25:38

the anti-Trumpers, is Ron DeSantis. And

25:41

sure enough, DeSantis in this Des

25:43

Moines Register poll is viewed more favorably

25:45

than any other candidate, including

25:48

Trump. So that's the other thing. For

25:51

all that we make fun of Ron DeSantis for, and as

25:53

bad as the campaign he's run, Republican

25:56

voters in Iowa actually

25:58

like him. They just... like Donald Trump more.

26:01

They just want Donald Trump. And

26:04

it's weird that it's nothing necessarily

26:07

against Ron DeSantis. They

26:09

love them from Donald Trump, and that's the fucking story

26:11

of this primary. I think the analysis

26:14

of the primary that all of us have

26:16

brought to bear has two initial and

26:21

fundamental mistakes in how we understood it that

26:23

have been fruit from a poison tree to everything

26:25

else. One is this idea that

26:27

this is a battle between

26:29

the MAGA wing and the non-MAGA wing. That's not a

26:31

thing. It is almost

26:34

entirely a MAGA base, and then

26:36

it's a battle for who can

26:38

consolidate parts of that MAGA base. So that's one.

26:41

There is not a significant- I think like 25%

26:43

of the Republican electorate is probably not

26:45

MAGA. Yeah. Well, that mean if three of every four

26:47

Republican voters is,

26:50

believes in the Trump view of the world, then ...

26:52

Because there's always that in every primary. But

26:55

we came into this idea that it was a little closer to

26:57

50-50, which meant that someone had a real chance.

26:59

And the second mistake was is we treated Donald Trump

27:02

like a new presidential candidate

27:04

like he was in 2016, as opposed to

27:06

who was essentially the incumbent president for

27:08

these people. So much of an incumbent

27:10

president that many of them think he should be president

27:13

right now because he didn't lose, which is again a fundamental

27:15

problem. And some still think he is. And then the other

27:18

challenge here is that people

27:20

like us have been pushing and pushing and pushing

27:22

this idea that why don't these guys run on an electability

27:25

message? Like why don't they say Trump can win?

27:28

That went to shit when Joe Biden's poll numbers went

27:30

to shit. So that's problem one, right? Is the

27:32

Republican voters believe that Donald Trump is the

27:34

most likely to win? But in the CNN polls,

27:36

this is a very interesting question, which they ask, what

27:38

is the most important quality you

27:41

want in your presidential nominee? And the

27:43

number one choice by 41%

27:46

of voters was someone

27:49

who fights for conservative values even

27:51

when they're unpopular. Way

27:53

down the list at 16% is someone

27:55

who can reach voters outside of the Republican

27:57

Party. Yeah. I

28:00

will say that if in an alternate

28:02

universe, if Biden

28:04

was really strong in the polls and

28:08

you were just seeing poll after poll

28:10

where Biden was beating Trump by like

28:13

five points, six points, but

28:16

Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley was tied

28:18

with Biden, I think those electability

28:21

numbers would go up. More Republicans

28:23

would care about electability because they would be

28:25

so worried to lose to Joe Biden,

28:27

but they haven't had to make that choice. And

28:30

would they actually see that information? Right. That's

28:32

the other question is that they were shocked that Joe Biden won

28:34

because they weren't consuming all of the polls that

28:36

we were that showed that they were incorrect.

28:39

And so maybe these people were correct and we were wrong, but

28:42

throughout the entire general election 2020, even dating

28:44

back to the primary, all every single poll, the

28:46

entire time, every single high quality poll showed

28:48

Joe Biden winning by a lot in many

28:51

cases. And that just never penetrated

28:53

into the Republican media ecosystem.

28:55

That's true. That's true. Let's

28:58

say this is a low likelihood scenario,

29:00

very low likelihood scenario. It

29:02

seems impossible that someone other

29:05

than maybe Tim Scott, who has declared it so, is going

29:07

to win Iowa other than Donald Trump. The

29:09

question would be, could Haley

29:12

win in New Hampshire? New

29:14

Hampshire is a very bizarre electorate. It

29:16

is an open primary where independents can vote. There

29:19

is no real democratic primary happening on

29:21

the same day. And so in a scenario

29:23

where that, if that word happened, I'm talking like a 1% or

29:26

less like a 1% likelihood here, then

29:29

you head to South Carolina, which is

29:31

her home state. And could that, just

29:33

the thing we don't know, because we've never really seen is Donald

29:36

Trump taking a loss and a significant

29:38

loss in a Republican primary and how that

29:40

would affect things. And so that would be

29:42

the only possible

29:45

shot ever. And it would require a lot of things.

29:47

Joe Biden to strengthen. Donald Trump

29:49

to weaken. Probably require a run to Santas to

29:52

strengthen among MAGA voters to take

29:54

some people from Trump but not Haley. And

29:56

then have Haley have some sort of massive, incredible.

30:00

relatively lucky, highly unlikely surge

30:02

with independent voters. That

30:05

is the question. You think it would require DeSantis

30:07

to stay in after coming in second or

30:09

second. It would have to be a thing where Haley is gaining

30:12

either DeSantis's numbers go up because he's

30:14

taking some from Trump or

30:16

his numbers stay the same, but the composition of his

30:20

15% changes where it's more of those people

30:22

who are Trump, for Trump

30:24

voters who DeSantis is their second choice, change it to DeSantis,

30:27

and then Haley taking some of the

30:30

college-educated, more independent-leaning,

30:33

more moderate voters that are

30:35

more overrepresented in New Hampshire than

30:37

in the other primary states. And

30:40

I guess then if you're Haley or DeSantis,

30:42

you really run on electability because

30:45

the inevitability of Trump is

30:47

punctured by losing New Hampshire, and then you head to South Carolina

30:50

and you say, he just lost

30:52

in New Hampshire and look at all these

30:54

legal troubles and blah, blah, blah. And we all

30:56

love Donald Trump, but it's too much of a risk.

31:00

And look how strong Nikki Haley is in New Hampshire. And

31:02

then she puts out some polls saying she could beat Joe

31:04

Biden, and then she's off to the races.

31:07

Although I still think at that point, that's South Carolina

31:09

poll, Trump at 53 and Haley at 22.

31:13

Now, we know from experience that numbers

31:15

in South Carolina can move quite a bit

31:17

after what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire can move like

31:20

a lot that happened to Barack Obama. Hillary

31:23

Clinton was leading by a lot in South Carolina

31:25

up until we won Iowa, and then she wasn't. So

31:28

that could change, but that is a big gap. Yeah.

31:31

I mean, look, I'm not saying this is likely probable,

31:33

possible, maybe possible, slightly, maybe

31:36

in some strange world possible, but that's the scenario that

31:38

it would take. There are a million variables that have

31:40

to go right for that to happen, but I think it's New

31:42

Hampshire has to is the case. And if Donald Trump

31:44

wins Iowa, New Hampshire, it's over. awesome

32:00

but also is environmentally friendly is

32:03

the perfect way to go. Outerknown

32:06

was founded to make high quality clothing that doesn't

32:08

negatively impact the planet or the people that

32:10

work to bring it to your closet. So when you

32:12

wear Outerknown, you're not just wearing a piece of clothing,

32:14

you're wearing a product for a better planet. Outerknown

32:17

makes men's and women's clothes that are made from organic

32:20

and recycled materials using fair trade

32:22

factories all over the world. They're comfy, cozy,

32:24

fit great, and are designed to last.

32:27

They're also designed to make you look good and feel good about

32:29

your purchase. Their best selling product, the

32:31

blanket shirt, is the perfect blend of style and comfort.

32:33

It's the perfect gift for anyone in your life. They

32:35

also make tees, denim pants, swim trunks, sweaters,

32:38

and everything else you could want. All made with the highest

32:40

regard for sustainability and the planet.

32:42

We love Outerknown. Love it. Love

32:44

the shirts. So comfortable. Love the

32:47

jumpsuits. I'm always wearing the jumpsuit. He loves the jumpsuit. John

32:49

loves the jumpsuit. Love the jumpsuit. Now

32:52

that it's getting a little colder, get some sweaters. Go

32:54

to Outernown.com slash PSA today and you'll get 25% off

32:57

your first order. That's Outernown.com

32:59

slash PSA spelled O-U-T-E-R-K-N-O-W-N

33:04

dot com slash PSA to receive the 25% off discount.

33:07

Check them out today, Outernown.com slash PSA,

33:09

and don't forget to use the promo code on the page for 25%

33:12

off.

33:18

So some of these goobers have lamely and so far

33:21

unsuccessfully tried to criticize Trump, but

33:23

the latest line of attack is at least enjoyable for

33:25

us. They're suggesting that he's old and

33:28

losing it, and a few media outlets are finally

33:30

starting to pay attention. Here's the New York Times quote,

33:33

big story in the Times this week. Mr.

33:35

Trump has had a string of unforced gaffes, garble,

33:37

and general disjointedness that go beyond

33:40

his usual discursive nature and

33:42

that his Republican rivals are pointing to as

33:45

signs of his declining performance. Story

33:48

also includes a quote from Ron DeSantis

33:50

quote, this is a different Donald

33:52

Trump. Lost the zip on his fastball.

33:55

In 2016, he was freewheeling. He's

33:58

out there barnstorming the country. Now

34:00

it's just a different guy and it's sad

34:02

to see. What could Ron possibly

34:05

be talking about, you ask? Well, here's

34:07

some greatest hits from just the last month.

34:10

I have weaponized law enforcement to arrest

34:12

their leading political opponent, leading by

34:15

a lot, including Obama. I'll tell you

34:17

what, you take a look at Obama and take

34:19

a look at some of the things that he's done. And

34:22

we did with Obama. We

34:24

won an election that everyone said couldn't be

34:26

won. The windmills are

34:28

driving the whales, I think a little batty.

34:31

You don't have to vote, don't worry about voting. The

34:33

voting, we got plenty of votes. You got to watch

34:36

Victor Orban. Anyone over here?

34:38

He's the leader of Turkey. You know how you

34:41

spell us, right? You

34:43

spell us, U.S. We're

34:45

going to turn Christmas around. Remember the department

34:48

stores, they refused to use the word

34:50

Christmas. Big hello

34:53

to a place where we've done very well. Sioux

34:55

Falls, thank you very much, Sioux Falls. So

34:58

Sioux City, let me ask you, theism

35:00

and pro-terrorism,

35:02

what you're doing, the terrorism,

35:05

Hezbollah and Homer. And

35:08

just in conclusion, we

35:11

have a man who is totally

35:13

corrupt and the worst president in the

35:15

history of our country, who

35:17

is cognitively impaired,

35:20

in no condition to lead. They

35:22

would be the World

35:25

War II very quickly.

35:28

Wow, that's good stuff. Homer.

35:31

Any indication that Republican

35:33

primary voters will suddenly think

35:36

that Donald Trump is losing it and run into the arms

35:38

of Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis? Can

35:41

you lose a step if you'd ever had one? Yes,

35:45

like what was his fastball like? The

35:50

fastball that never got him again above

35:53

like 47% in the national popular vote? What

35:56

are you talking about? I think this

35:58

stuff is all... feature

36:01

not bug for most voters. And then once again,

36:03

for these people to actually see this,

36:06

someone's going to have to show it to them. And we

36:08

know Fox News is not doing super cuts of

36:10

Donald Trump's worst moments for them to see.

36:13

It's not showing up on radio. I mean, theoretically,

36:16

DeSantis or someone else could run ads showing

36:19

this stuff. I can't imagine they will

36:21

actually do that. But most

36:23

people who do not record

36:26

podcasts for a living do not watch

36:28

Trump's rallies from beginning to end on 1.75 speed

36:30

on YouTube. They're not seeing

36:33

it. What do you do with that? You don't have to, guys. And

36:36

I promise you this is one of the real problems

36:38

with, in the ways in which the president and I figure how to cover

36:40

Trump, is that local news tends

36:43

to sanitize Trump. They

36:45

pick his more coherent moments because they're trying to tell

36:47

a story about what he actually said. And you

36:50

can't do that with him calling

36:52

Hamas hummus and the Biden stuff. Donald

36:56

Trump came to town today and he called for X, Y, and

36:58

Z. And then they'll play clips that support X, Y, and

37:00

Z as opposed to the worst stuff. Republicans

37:03

have a media apparatus that will take the worst

37:05

moments of Joe Biden and show it to all of their

37:07

voters and then pump that content through social

37:09

media in front of people who aren't just their voters. Democrats

37:12

don't have that apparatus, at least, it's particularly

37:14

does not have that apparatus in a way that would reach Republican

37:17

voters who would otherwise

37:19

consider DeSantis or Haley. And except,

37:21

of course, all the Republican voters who listen to Pods Save America

37:23

who just heard that wonderful compilation. Yes,

37:26

that's true. That's true. In fact, we should put that online

37:29

so that our friends can share with the Republican uncles

37:31

and cousins. That's great. Well, and speaking of that, the Biden

37:33

campaign has been doing this. They've been having some fun

37:36

tweeting out all these clips. There's a Biden

37:39

Harris HQ Twitter account that is- It's awesome

37:41

on threads, John. It's awesome on threads. It's also

37:43

very active on threads. That's important. Maybe they do.

37:45

Maybe they skeet. I don't know, but it's possible. Anyway,

37:49

they've been tweeting these out. Trump obviously

37:52

presents a lot of targets. We've talked about

37:54

this. Scary demagogue, criminal

37:56

defendant, congenital liar.

37:58

What do you think of- the crazy old

38:01

guy strategy. I think this is more

38:03

tactic than strategy. I don't think

38:05

this is necessarily how Biden

38:07

is going to run against Trump, but

38:09

I think they are trying to solve a specific

38:12

problem, which is the media

38:14

coverage of Biden is centered around this narrative

38:16

that his biggest political weakness is his age. And

38:18

so every time Joe Biden, who has been

38:20

dealing with a lifelong stutter, says something

38:23

the wrong way, or trips on a

38:25

sandbag or anything like that, that is then used

38:28

as a massive political gaffe

38:30

that could cause him to lose the election. And so it's all

38:32

framed through that. While over here, Donald

38:34

Trump, who, don't get me wrong, has his own series

38:37

of problems, separate and apart from the crazy things he

38:39

says, says crazy stuff all the time,

38:41

but it's never put in that same framework. And

38:44

there is this, you see what I know, this tremendous frustration

38:46

among Biden aides that Biden

38:48

and Trump are basically the same age, but

38:51

it's all about Joe Biden being the

38:53

oldest president, not the fact that if Donald Trump wins, he

38:55

will also be the oldest president in American

38:58

history, right? He will be the second oldest president in American

39:00

history. So they're just trying to change

39:02

the matrix by which the press

39:04

is covering the race to focus a little more on Donald

39:07

Trump stuff, which I think is probably the right thing to do. And

39:09

plus, if you've been working on Joe Biden's campaign for the last

39:12

seven months or so since he announced, you

39:15

deserve some fun. This has not been an easy seven months.

39:17

So if this is fun, let's get you to the day. I fully support

39:19

it. So I think

39:21

there's some nuance to

39:23

the Trump is a crazy

39:26

old guy argument, which is like, I

39:28

don't think and I agree with you

39:30

that you don't necessarily win a battle

39:33

between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, where you say like, I'm

39:35

not old, he's old, or he's just as old as me,

39:37

or you think I've lost a step? No, no, no, he's

39:39

lost a step. Like I don't know that that's the field

39:41

they want to be playing on. I don't think it's like, like

39:43

you said, it's a tactic. I do think that

39:46

reminding everyone what a fucking clown Donald

39:49

Trump is, is actually effective. I

39:51

think that authoritarian

39:53

leaders, fascists throughout history, they

39:56

do not like to be made fun of they do not like

39:58

to be mocked. Donald Trump. does not like to be

40:00

mocked. And I think we need to get back

40:02

to, like he is an extremely

40:05

scary demagogue, right? That we've said

40:07

a million times, you got to take them seriously and literally.

40:09

We've all seen it in action for four years. Did you just do

40:11

seriously and literally? Seriously

40:14

and literally, yeah, we all talked about that. He's,

40:16

you know, he tried to overturn the election,

40:18

cited an insurrection, all of that for sure.

40:21

Second term would be fucking terrifying. But

40:23

he's a clown. And I think for a lot

40:25

of Americans, they don't want to be embarrassed

40:28

by their president. They don't want to elect a clown

40:30

as a president. They don't want to have someone who like

40:33

says crazy shit all the time.

40:36

Even among Republican voters, the only

40:38

sort of crack in the in

40:40

the armor there is when they say, oh, I

40:43

don't like his tweets. And I wish he would. I

40:45

don't like his behavior. I wish he would. And

40:47

so that is Donald Trump's weakness.

40:49

And I think getting that out there more,

40:52

reminding people of that more is going to be important.

40:54

I think that's slightly different than saying he's

40:56

lost a step, but it is. It does

40:59

require us to like make sure that

41:01

people are consuming content where Trump is

41:04

acting as crazy as he always has been. I

41:06

think that's right. There, what I'm specifically

41:08

referring to is a series of

41:10

tactics that campaigns often do to try to

41:13

affect the way the media

41:15

tells the narrative of the race. And that's what

41:17

they're doing here. That's why this is framed through the cognitive

41:19

decline, right? Which is how the

41:22

headline of that time story that was

41:25

surprisingly great was about

41:27

how Donald Trump has

41:30

a lot of misstatements and gaffes that make it harder

41:32

for him to run against Joe Biden

41:34

as someone too old or going through cognitive decline or

41:36

whatever the Republican message is. I

41:39

think the way to think about the

41:41

crazy Trump moments is

41:43

to make him seem weak. Because

41:46

too much of it, Donald Trump is running on a classic

41:48

strong man strategy. And

41:50

too much of our messaging reinforces

41:53

that element of him. He's an authoritarian, he's

41:55

going to overturn the election. That all makes him seem powerful.

41:58

In fact, in some ways... the

42:00

indictments have made him seem more powerful.

42:03

Not so much if he has marched out of a courtroom in an orange

42:06

jumpsuit. That will not seem making

42:08

him seem powerful. But the fact that, you

42:10

know, the narrative that all of these government agencies, the

42:12

deep state everyone is coming after him, is

42:15

something he has turned into an evidence of his

42:17

strength. Our messaging needs to

42:19

be about evidence of his weakness. And

42:21

that's what I think some of these, the moments that are

42:23

currently being put through this cognitive decline framework

42:27

can be used for. Right, is it, this guy, he is a

42:29

clown. He is not serious. You

42:31

can't be strong

42:33

if you're a joke. Yeah. I think

42:35

is the important thing here. And like, just

42:37

calling it, I mean, like we have to show his

42:40

weakness, you know, and not tell people he's weak, because people

42:42

aren't gonna be primed to think he's weak. But

42:44

if he's a joke, if he's mockable, if

42:47

everyone's laughing at him, no one's really

42:49

afraid of him. That's not scary, that's not strong. He

42:51

wants us to be afraid of him. He wants to

42:53

seem like powerful and strong. And

42:56

I do think mocking him is gonna help fix

42:58

that Do you remember the ad the Biden campaign

43:01

ran in early 2020 with the

43:03

footage of all the world leaders laughing about Trump

43:05

from some sort of G20

43:07

or something like that? And people, I think

43:10

you, a lot of us said that this was a great ad.

43:12

And a lot of people were like, no one cares about foreign policy.

43:15

People hate other countries. It's

43:17

like, no, the point here is he's a joke.

43:20

Yeah. And a joke cannot be a strong man who can

43:22

protect you from chaos in the world. That

43:24

is right, that is right. All right, I

43:26

also gotta ask you about a few new general election

43:28

polls. Oh, fun. That tested

43:31

some third party candidates, particularly RFK

43:33

Jr. So the new Quinnipiac poll

43:35

has the race Biden 47, Trump 46. But

43:39

when they add in RFK Jr, the

43:41

race is Biden 39, Trump 36,

43:43

RFK Jr 22%. When

43:48

they add in Cornel West, it's Biden 36,

43:50

Trump 35, RFK

43:52

Jr 19, Cornel West

43:55

six. And there's also a new Susquehanna

43:57

poll that shows RFK Jr hurting.

44:00

Trump in the three-way race, which Biden

44:02

does win. So it's similar to the

44:04

Quinnipiac poll. What do you make of those polls?

44:06

Are you more convinced that RFK

44:09

Jr. will hurt Trump more than Biden

44:11

or is it still way too early to tell? I

44:13

have a lot of thoughts on this, John. Yeah,

44:15

there we go. So... Sort of surprised

44:18

you with this. It wasn't in the outline, but I was just... But

44:20

I do read it when you sent the script back, so I

44:22

was prepared. Thank you. Okay. Appreciate it. I'm

44:25

not your co-host who's surprised by the questions.

44:27

So it's like... So

44:32

I... Spoiler,

44:36

it's not Tommy. It

44:41

is still too early to tell for a couple of reasons.

44:44

One, it's going to depend a little bit on

44:46

how RFK Jr. runs his campaign. Is

44:48

he going to spend his time and money attacking

44:51

Biden and trying to appeal to disenchanted Democrats?

44:53

Or is he going to go after both of them or

44:56

go after Trump and try to get some

44:58

sort of disaffected Republicans,

45:00

some of the Trumpy independents

45:02

who do not vote for Republicans other than

45:05

Trump to try to get them? And so just...

45:07

Because there's a dynamic of two on one

45:10

in advertising. And

45:12

I think it's particularly problematic for Biden

45:14

as a former Democrat named Kennedy going

45:16

after Biden. So that's one. The

45:19

numbers in these polls are kind of absurd. The

45:22

idea that one in five Americans know enough about

45:24

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to pick him as their presidential

45:26

choice is ridiculous. He's essentially

45:29

representing the mystery box phenomenon right here, where

45:31

if you don't love option A and B, you're going to go see

45:33

what's behind door C. And so that's

45:35

sort of... He's sort of, I think, representing generic other

45:38

in that sense. And then the most

45:40

important thing of all, more than any

45:42

of these polls, whatever they say now, whatever

45:45

they say a year from now, well,

45:47

I guess a year from now would be pretty consequential, but

45:49

six months from now is where he gets on the

45:51

ballot. I was just going to say, okay. Yeah,

45:53

right. If he is, he does not have

45:56

guaranteed ballot access anywhere. He's not running on the

45:58

Libertarian Party ticket or the Green Party ticket. where their

46:00

nominee automatically gets on the ballot in some states.

46:03

He's got a- And neither is Cornel West now, also, we

46:05

should say. And so if

46:07

he gets on the ballot in Alaska,

46:10

Kansas, and California, it's

46:12

not going to matter.

46:13

If he gets on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,

46:16

Arizona, Georgia, one of those states, or even just

46:18

one of those states, it could be very consequential,

46:21

whichever group he takes from. And

46:23

we should say it's not an easy thing

46:26

for an independent candidate with no

46:28

party, literally, libertarian, green, whatever,

46:31

to just get on ballots in these states. That

46:33

is a pretty difficult process, right? Oh,

46:35

absolutely. It takes, you have to, a ton

46:37

of money. It's very expensive. It takes a lot of time.

46:40

You have to gather a tremendous

46:42

number of signatures. Some states have very

46:44

difficult ballot access, where the signatures have to be

46:46

from all of the counties or some portion

46:49

of the counties, then they have to be verified.

46:52

It's very, very expensive. And one of the

46:54

problems for RFK Jr. is his money

46:56

to date throughout the Democratic primary,

46:59

it was MAGA donors who thought he was hurting Biden,

47:01

funding him. And if they now think he's

47:03

hurting Trump, which the Trump campaign reportedly does,

47:06

so this is consistent with their polling, I assume,

47:08

I don't know where he's going to find the money to do

47:10

that. I mean, that's

47:12

why he turns to the all-in pod. I

47:14

was waiting for you to say that. They

47:19

like him. No, I know. He

47:22

does have some money, so I worry about that. Look,

47:25

I think I agree with you that 22% is sort of absurd.

47:29

It does give me some concern

47:31

that so many voters want

47:34

that third option, knowing

47:36

that it's not going to take many defections

47:39

to swing the race to Donald Trump. Yeah.

47:42

These poll numbers, in all the third party polling, in

47:44

all the polling that asks, do you want Biden,

47:46

Trump, or someone else, or not voting, all

47:49

speak to our biggest concern, which

47:51

is Joe

47:53

Biden is currently not popular

47:55

enough to guarantee a victory. Right.

47:58

And we need more enthusiasm on the Democratic side. I mean, more. of

48:00

the anti-magma majority in this

48:02

country to come back to vote for Joe

48:04

Biden again, and we have zero margin of error. Okay.

48:08

Yeah. All right. Well, so before we go, I

48:10

just want to take a second to remember

48:13

our friend, Adi Barkin, who died

48:16

this week from complications of ALS

48:18

at just 39 years old. So

48:21

a lot of you probably heard Adi on the show

48:23

trying to get people involved in the fight

48:25

to make healthcare human right. First

48:27

time we talked to him was right after he was

48:29

arrested for protesting Trump's tax

48:32

cut in 2017. On his way

48:34

home from that event, he confronted

48:36

former Senator Jeff Flake on a plane to

48:39

beg him to vote against Medicare

48:41

cuts. The video went viral, and

48:43

then we booked Adi on the show. So

48:47

he starts off the interview by saying, hey,

48:49

guys, I'm pretty excited right now. And I

48:51

said, oh, well, thanks. That's nice to say. We're

48:54

excited to have you on. And he says,

48:56

no, man. I'm not excited about being on your

48:58

podcast. I'm excited about rejuvenating

49:00

our democracy with thousands of my closest

49:03

friends. So

49:05

he then lets us ask like two questions

49:08

before he completely takes over the interview and

49:10

starts interrogating us about Republican

49:13

politics, economic policy,

49:15

Barack Obama shortcomings. And

49:18

at one point he says, okay, last question

49:20

for you guys. In love, it says, well, now

49:22

you're just fully hosting the show. And

49:24

Adi says, too bad, guys. Dying

49:27

man gets to do what he wants. And

49:30

that's who Adi was. He was every

49:33

bit as as brave and determined

49:35

and inspiring as he seemed. But

49:38

he was also witty and

49:40

self-deprecating and darkly funny.

49:42

He was wonky and shrewd

49:45

and tough. He would call you on

49:47

your bullshit when you weren't doing enough or

49:49

fighting as hard as you could. Adi did

49:51

not become an activist because

49:54

of his ALS. He was an activist

49:56

his entire life who understood

49:58

that His ALS would

50:01

allow him to reach more people,

50:04

organize more people, persuade more people,

50:07

pressure more politicians to do the right thing.

50:09

But he did all of that with just

50:11

the most big-hearted, generous

50:14

spirit. And what he taught me

50:17

is that in the face of pain and

50:19

suffering and even death, it's

50:22

important to find joy

50:24

in the struggle for equality

50:27

and justice. And the reason it's important

50:30

is because that struggle is with

50:33

other people and it's for other people,

50:35

people you love and people you may never

50:37

know. And that's, I think, why

50:39

Adi embraced that struggle right up until the

50:42

day that he died. He did it for his

50:44

brilliant, incredible wife, Rachel,

50:47

his two beautiful children, Carl and Willow,

50:50

and for all of us. He

50:53

was the best organizer, best

50:55

human, and I loved him very much. And

50:59

because he wouldn't want it any other way, I

51:02

will go ahead and we will give Adi

51:04

the last word today. I

51:06

have come to understand the difference this way.

51:09

I can do nothing to change the fact of my

51:11

terminal illness.

51:13

There is no cure for ALS right now, and

51:15

there is nothing I can do to stop my rapid

51:18

neurological decay. To

51:20

flail against it helplessly would only cause

51:22

me additional grief and suffering, so

51:24

the only thing I can do is accept it. That

51:27

isn't true about the healthcare crisis in

51:30

this country or systemic racism

51:32

or the climate emergency barreling towards

51:35

our shorelines every day. Resisting

51:37

those challenges, whether by marching

51:40

or voting or petitioning, that's

51:42

the only way to solve the most pressing problems

51:45

facing our society. And

51:47

that is why I'm doing everything I can, even

51:50

as paralysis grips more of my body every

51:52

day. Struggling for justice

51:54

is a fruitful endeavor.

51:56

All right, everyone, thank you, and we will

51:59

talk to you next week.

52:00

Bye, everyone.

52:02

Hot Save America is a crooked media production.

52:05

Our producers are Olivia Martinez and David

52:07

Toledo. Our associate producer is Farrah

52:09

Safari, writing support from Hallie Kiefer.

52:12

Reed Charlin is our executive producer. The

52:14

show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick.

52:17

Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio

52:19

support from Kyle Sedwin and Charlotte Landis.

52:22

Madeline Harringer is our head of news and programming.

52:24

Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Andy

52:27

Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks

52:29

to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley

52:31

Jones, Mia Kelman, David Tolz,

52:33

Kiro Pellevi, and Molly Lobel. Subscribe

52:36

to Pod Save America on YouTube to catch full episodes

52:39

and extra video content. Find

52:41

us at youtube.com slash at

52:43

podsaveamerica. Finally, you can

52:45

join our friends at the pod subscription community for ad-free

52:48

episodes, exclusive content, and

52:50

a great discussion on Discord. Plus, it's

52:52

a great way to get involved with Pod Save America. Sign

52:54

up at crooked.com slash friends.