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1:45

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau.

1:47

John Lovett. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. I'm Tommy Vitor.

1:50

On today's show, democrats fight

1:52

off a red wave in a historic midterm

1:54

that defied most expectations and

1:56

handed Donald Trump and Magna

1:58

Republican election deniers a stunning

2:01

defeat. That felt good to say.

2:04

We'll go through all the big races and early data

2:06

to unpack exactly what happened, including

2:08

some of the races that are too close to call

2:10

at this hour. And we'll also talk

2:12

about what's next for both parties. But

2:15

first and most importantly, thank

2:17

you to everyone who signed up for

2:19

Vote Save America, everyone who

2:21

gave your time and your money and your

2:23

energy to this campaign, especially

2:26

in such a tough year. We said

2:28

a lot of these incredibly close races

2:30

would be decided by the

2:32

margin of effort and

2:34

that's exactly what happened. That's because of

2:36

all of you. So we wanted

2:38

to thank you all for that. Alright. Some stats.

2:40

In in this mid term cycle, VSA volunteers

2:43

and donors raise five point two million

2:45

dollars and filled forty six thousand six hundred

2:47

and seventy two volunteer shifts to help

2:49

elect progressives and past progressive ballot measures

2:51

across the country and our VSA community of

2:53

twelve hundred and seventy super volunteers were

2:55

a huge part of its success making over one

2:57

point five million voter contacts. That's

3:00

amazing. That's unbelievable. That is

3:02

unbelievable. You guys were the best. Alright. Let's

3:04

get to the news. And for the first time in a long

3:06

time, it is good. As of

3:08

this morning, the Democrats have a very good chance

3:10

of holding the senate, thanks to big

3:12

wins by Maggie Hasson in New Hampshire

3:14

and John Federman in Pennsylvania, Republicans

3:16

are still favorite to flip the house,

3:19

but it's still not a sure thing. And right now,

3:21

they're only projected to have a very

3:23

slim majority Democrats won governor's

3:25

races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kansas,

3:27

New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota,

3:30

and Michigan where they also flipped the

3:32

state legislature giving Democrats

3:34

the first trifecta there in forty years.

3:37

It appears right now they're they're about to flip the

3:39

Pennsylvania state house as well.

3:41

Pennsylvania, such a big deal. That's voters

3:43

enshrined abortion rights in the state constitutions

3:46

of California, and Vermont while

3:48

Kentucky rejected an abortion ban

3:50

Missouri and Maryland legalized marijuana,

3:52

Nebraska raised the minimum wage, and South

3:54

Dakota expanded Medicaid. There's

3:56

probably more, but let's stop there for now.

3:58

and talk about big picture before we dive into

4:01

these results. Obviously, we don't have all

4:03

the data yet, but what do we know

4:05

so far about how and why

4:07

this happened last night? Dan.

4:09

Verbald message box. Yeah. Yeah.

4:11

Hey. Never got a chance. Just for a second.

4:13

Yeah. No. That have to go read the message

4:15

box. Say, yeah. What am I hey, Dan. What am I gonna say on

4:17

Monday? It's sitting in my out back. It did send

4:19

over down here. So I'd say a couple of things

4:21

here. One, it's very clear the red wave did

4:23

not happen. Mhmm. And it did not

4:25

happen because Democrats very

4:27

successfully were able to turn this

4:29

election from a simple

4:32

thermostatic up or down typical mid

4:34

term into a referendum on republican

4:36

extremism embodied by the decision

4:39

the Supreme Court in the Dobbs case.

4:41

And you saw Democratic turnout go

4:43

up, you saw independence who

4:45

may have qualms about president Biden

4:47

or concerned about inflation, vote for

4:49

democrats because democrats were

4:51

running as the bulwark against that extremism,

4:54

and it allowed us to dramatically outperform

4:56

in any one thought was possible in the House. potentially

4:58

hold the senate, you know, with the obvious caveat

5:00

that there is a lot of vote to be counted. Some

5:03

very important senate

5:05

races that could go either way and could tip

5:07

this we could we could still end all of this with losing

5:09

the house on the senate. Yeah. But the early

5:11

results show that the anti

5:14

maga pro democracy majority in this

5:16

country came out to vote and sent a pretty

5:18

powerful message in a in lot of in blue and

5:20

purple states. Dan, what's the what do you think the

5:22

verdict is on the Mitch McConnell one

5:24

sentence answer candidate quality matters.

5:26

I think that is I mean, very,

5:28

very clearly matters. It is you you can

5:30

look at it in a couple ways. Like, there are some political

5:33

environment, partisan makeup of states is obviously

5:35

the most important thing. So you

5:37

saw very good candidates like Tim

5:39

Ryan, fall along

5:41

the lines of that state, but in very, very close

5:43

races. And he probably pulled some of those

5:45

house races over the finish line. He probably won

5:47

some seats in Ohio because of Tim Ryan.

5:49

and you said but you saw in whether it

5:51

is in Pennsylvania, it is in government

5:54

versus in Michigan, you saw good candidates,

5:56

beat bad candidates. And if we hold

5:58

on in Nevada and win the

6:00

runoff in Georgia. That will be yet another example

6:02

of the Republicans will have left a lot of potential

6:04

opportunities on the table because they had they

6:06

ran very bad candidates who are

6:08

out of the mainstream who embody that

6:10

extremist message. In fact,

6:13

where Republicans ran less

6:15

trumpy candidates those

6:17

candidates outperformed the

6:19

more Magna candidates in those same states.

6:21

So like Mike DeWine in Ohio,

6:24

outperformed JD Vance by a lot. Chris

6:26

and new Chris and new New Hampshire outperformed

6:29

on Bullock by a lot. Brian

6:31

Kemp in Georgia outperformed Hershel

6:33

Walker by a lot. split ticket

6:35

voters exist people. Yeah. I

6:37

know. Remember when that was a debate? Everybody to

6:39

believe it's a real thing. Yes. Split ticket voters

6:41

exist. Also, like, that, like,

6:43

it looks like independents just

6:45

didn't break bad, which is really unusual.

6:47

I do wanna like, I mean,

6:50

hasn't ever happened in mid

6:52

term -- Really surprised for the president's

6:54

party in as and since,

6:56

like, what, two thousand and two? Two thousand and two

6:58

is the one modern political goal,

7:00

history exception to that role. And in two

7:02

thousand and two, George W. Bush's approval

7:04

rating was sky high, which has

7:06

never happened. Joe Biden's

7:08

approval rating as of this midterm was the

7:10

worst approval rating of any post war

7:12

president to head into a midterm. I wanna understand

7:15

more as we get more

7:17

votes and people look at it more closely. So

7:19

McConnell was saying candidate quality matters was a

7:21

dig at McCarthy because he was saying people pay

7:23

attention to their senators and not as much to their

7:25

house candidates. But, yeah, we

7:27

did see a lot of these more extreme MAGA House

7:29

candidates lose, but then you have, like, a

7:31

guy that was at the intersection winning

7:33

on My Island, which I think is kind of strange.

7:35

And so, like, how much of what

7:37

happened in these house races where it's

7:39

closer than we thought it would be is because there was this

7:41

national conversation about how extreme these Republicans

7:44

have gotten. how much of it was the breaking through

7:46

of these individual candidates and

7:48

how terrible they were. And I just I don't think we

7:50

know right now. Yeah. There are some examples like

7:52

think it's the Marcy Kaprosy in Ohio, which

7:54

was Jibana for the specific purpose of forcing

7:56

her out. She won because of a Trump endorsed

7:58

candidate, named Jay or Majewski, who lied

8:00

about his service in Afghanistan. It was a general

8:03

nut job. And, like, that's one specific example. He

8:05

got a set of attention, part because Trump and we'll

8:07

talk about a little later, shot shine the spotlight

8:09

on that candidate and nationalize that race

8:11

away. It was actually helpful to Democrats. Yeah. I kinda wanna

8:13

understand how much attention does it take

8:15

to get how bad a house candidate is

8:17

to cost them their seat. That's because we have a few

8:19

places where there there are some lumpy people

8:21

that won in, like, kind of, more

8:23

moderate districts and we have cases like that where because

8:25

it was so big and it was so public, it seems like

8:27

it mattered. I still think in the house,

8:30

it's more about sort of

8:32

larger structural environmental versus

8:34

here. I mean, you you're talking about the anti Trump

8:36

majority. I remember talking of

8:38

Michael Potter's or for the wilderness,

8:40

like, before the election season started

8:42

or at least at the very beginning, And he said to

8:44

me, like, I know Democrats are nervous. Democrats have

8:46

a lot of things to be nervous about,

8:48

but there is a path and that path

8:50

is the anti Trump coalition showing

8:52

up and the best chance to get them to show

8:54

up is to make them understand

8:56

that the threat of Trumpism

8:58

is still very real, and the threat of

9:00

Republican extremism is still very real. that,

9:02

of course, was before Dobbs. Right. But

9:04

and then Dobbs became the greatest

9:07

example of mega extremism.

9:09

But also, all of these candidates

9:11

that Trump had were also just terrible

9:13

terrible candidates. The economy was

9:15

the top issue for voters. Three

9:17

fourths of voters said it was fair or poor,

9:19

four fifth said inflation caused them either

9:21

severe or moderate hardship, but

9:23

Democrats still won forty

9:26

percent of voters who said the economy

9:28

was just quote, not so

9:30

good. So that was actually a big deal.

9:32

It looks like slightly more

9:34

Republicans turned out than Democrats. This was

9:36

an r plus for

9:38

electorate, but

9:40

independents and especially independent

9:42

women broke for

9:44

democrats slightly, and then broke for democrats by a

9:46

bigger margin in the senate races

9:48

in Arizona, Georgia, New

9:50

Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. abortion

9:52

was the second most important issue for voters.

9:54

and the most important issue for most Democrats,

9:57

especially especially in states

9:59

where the outcome of the race

10:01

would determine the future of abortion

10:03

access in that state like Pennsylvania

10:05

and Michigan. Yeah. It it's

10:08

interesting notable that abortion,

10:10

obviously, we talk about this. for,

10:12

but abortion was more salient in issues

10:14

where the vote really, really mattered as opposed to

10:16

California where there's a constitutional amendment

10:18

now that will be in place soon. It's also interesting and

10:20

probably not surprising that independents broke

10:22

particularly hard against the

10:24

wackiest republican candidates. Yeah. Like,

10:26

does that make sense? I do it

10:28

like, just thinking back how we were feeling in just

10:30

before in the days before that,

10:33

obviously, the the narrative

10:35

had turned sour

10:37

on us. And there were a lot of bad polls, but

10:39

there was this hope, right, that that we were, you know,

10:41

we talked about it, that we're, like, lighting this candle for

10:43

this Dobbs boat that's gonna be out there, that's gonna

10:45

show up. and it does seem like that that

10:47

happened. Like, it seemed like we did have

10:49

that Dobbs vote in a way

10:51

that that really helped us. In with

10:53

independence, and independent women. I mean,

10:55

in Kentucky, we'll have we'll have, you

10:57

know, the the data will come in the next month and we'll

10:59

have more sort of, like, demographic

11:01

data. But in the initial exits

11:03

that are now, you know, weighted with

11:05

some of the results. You see

11:07

that, like, young people made up

11:10

slightly less of the electorate than in twenty

11:12

eighteen. There was some erosion among voters

11:14

of color. There's some erosion for

11:16

Democrats among white college

11:18

voters. but still the

11:20

coalition basically held

11:22

that we had in twenty twenty and twenty eighteen. I also

11:24

think it's worth just caveating that some

11:26

of times the sub samples that you just

11:29

mentioned within the exit polls get

11:31

changed drastically over time. That's what you were

11:33

not talking about you know, the those are not the

11:35

best number. We're gonna have to wait unless they confirm our prior

11:37

beliefs. In which case And they're going to the

11:40

They're a little religion. The point is they're better than

11:42

they were last night because overnight,

11:44

they they sort of wait them to the One other

11:46

just exit poll result that I think is worth noting is

11:48

that in Pennsylvania, the Pennsylvania exit poll,

11:50

abortion was the number one issue. outpacing which

11:53

Inflationary set points -- Yeah. -- because --

11:55

If Master on the other hand, they

11:57

would have banned abortion. Yeah. And just, like,

11:59

I I just mentioned it, but The fact

12:01

that in Kentucky, by

12:03

polls, one of the most anti abortion states,

12:06

a an anti abortion

12:08

measure failed at the ballot box just tells you that

12:10

there really is from Kansas to Kentucky to

12:12

everywhere, this big pro choice majority that

12:14

turned out. And I think that that is

12:15

It was

12:17

it's really helpful. Let's talk about the senate.

12:19

As of this recording, it's still too early to

12:21

call it. Mark Kelly

12:23

is leading in Arizona. Rafael

12:26

Warnecke is leading in

12:28

Georgia, though, it's looking like

12:30

that. We'll definitely go to a runoff.

12:33

Catherine Cortez Masto is behind

12:35

in Nevada right now, but she could end

12:37

up winning once all the mail in ballots are

12:39

counted. We just don't know how many are out there or

12:41

where they are or what the split is, but we should

12:43

find out that more about that

12:45

today. But the big win to celebrate

12:47

right now is John Federman's victory

12:49

over the he drinking

12:51

puppy killer from New Jersey. No. That's

12:53

John T. Doctor Austin Why

12:55

don't you take your boot off his neck, he lost? Why don't

12:57

you sit on that branding field today? I like that.

12:59

Oh, I'm Dan knows that. We we talked about that in

13:01

the Thursday part. Yeah. Let's do a shot Thursday.

13:03

Thursday. Yeah. I know.

13:05

Alright. Here's pretty good. Here's

13:07

a clip from Federman's victories. speech.

13:10

This race is

13:12

for

13:12

the future of every community all across

13:15

Pennsylvania for for every

13:17

small town or a

13:19

person that ever felt left behind.

13:22

I'm proud of what we ran on.

13:25

Protect think a woman's right

13:26

to choose. Raising

13:32

our minimum wage, fighting

13:36

the union way of life, healthcare

13:41

is a fun a human right. It

13:46

saves my life and

13:47

it should all be there for you. Would

13:49

you ever should need it. Standing

13:54

up the corporate greed,

13:58

making more things right here in America

14:00

and right here in Pennsylvania

14:01

and

14:04

standing up for our democracy. How

14:07

did fishermen do it? I

14:09

mean, I just wanna say pour one out, in

14:12

this case, I guess, a a warm glass of pee

14:14

for all the the people who

14:16

add Federman's done because of the

14:18

debate takes. You know? Look.

14:20

I've made my I've Dan and I

14:22

have made our thought. Yeah. That's great. talk

14:24

about this. I like to be known that at

14:27

four thirty this morning. I woke up to see what time

14:29

it was. I saw that John was texting with one

14:31

of our friends on the East Coast about Clark County

14:33

mailing ballots at that exact momentum time he was

14:35

also running through his list of people. Democratic

14:37

strategist who complained about federal being trying to do

14:39

exact for a vetting job. I

14:41

was. It was, like, my Aria Starkl.

14:43

I like that a lot good for

14:46

you. I mean, it would yeah.

14:48

Anyway, enough about that. Yeah. So anyway, why don't you

14:50

wanna talk about how Federman did it? I mean, it

14:52

seems like he outran Biden and

14:55

some of the more rural counties and

14:57

then did incredibly well in Philadelphia. Right?

14:59

I mean, this is sort of the bath. Yeah. The

15:02

what we talked about since

15:05

Hillary almost won in twenty sixteen. In

15:07

Pennsylvania is, no, you can't just focus

15:09

on the places where we'd drive up the boat in

15:11

places like Philadelphia, you have to drive

15:13

down the margin. in rural

15:15

counties. He was explicit about that even in his

15:17

victory speech that he wanted to go to those places to

15:19

try one though. From day one,

15:21

and he was the right person to do it. he

15:24

outran Biden by eight to

15:26

ten points in a lot of those rural counties, the

15:28

Trump won. It's the Obama twenty twelve

15:30

coalition. That's what he reconstituted. Yeah.

15:32

With it added, like, sprinkling of

15:35

suburban former Romney suburban voters.

15:37

Yeah. And I will also say that, like, you

15:39

know, there's a there's an online debate that

15:41

probably doesn't translate into the real world

15:43

between, like Is it is it yeah.

15:45

Right? Make it. it up. Is it is it economic issues?

15:48

Is it kitchen? There's the much maligned kitchen

15:50

table issues? Or is it abortion than

15:52

democracy? John Federman did all

15:54

of the above. he talked he he talked

15:56

about abortion law. He talked about democracy, but he

15:58

was relentless on talking

16:00

about economic issues

16:02

He was focused on economic populism, and

16:04

he was still progressive on issues like

16:06

choice and and marijuana

16:08

legalization and and stuff

16:10

like that. So he has criticized

16:12

before John Federman the sort

16:14

of like left moderate ideological

16:16

divide. He says it's kind of voting. It's

16:18

really about voters wanting to know

16:20

that you're someone who's going to fight like hell for

16:22

them. And that's exactly who John

16:24

Federman is, and that's, I think, why he won. He

16:26

also did a very, I think, good

16:28

job of planting some of the

16:30

crime attacks that he was

16:32

facing just by, I think, he never really

16:34

got defensive. He doesn't really do defensive.

16:36

in way I think, people should look at

16:39

because even when he was getting hit

16:41

for being on the parole

16:43

board, he never backed away from talking about

16:45

the importance form. You talk importance of giving

16:47

people a second chance. He didn't he didn't pivot

16:49

and say, no, no, no, I'm the tough on crime

16:51

guy. He kind of kept

16:53

to his he kept to what people

16:55

liked about him. And I think that that

16:57

was

16:57

good. Yeah. I mean, he's obviously

16:59

a very non traditional candidate. He was

17:01

running against a really non

17:03

traditional opponent, but it was the classic

17:05

way in which you just win a campaign.

17:07

You run

17:08

everywhere, you take no vote

17:09

for granted, you the

17:12

measure that has almost always

17:14

decided who's gonna win win or lose is the

17:16

question in the poll, but who's gonna fight for you?

17:18

Always. He hammered that home He had

17:20

an actual economic plan. He had a four point

17:22

plan. He mentioned it all the time. Make shit at

17:25

home. Take on corporate grade. It was it

17:27

was good. It is

17:29

the model. of what Democrat should do

17:31

because we for all we're we can talk

17:33

about some of the, you know, troubling

17:35

trends in some of the otherwise very

17:37

good night. But if we want to have a

17:39

consistent shot at a senate,

17:41

Democratic senate and and

17:43

make the electoral college more friendly to us, we

17:45

are going to have to have the Federman

17:48

coalition in all of these

17:50

states. They also won with, like, the most enormous

17:52

disadvantage you could ever imagine, which is you're

17:54

candidate having a stroke and not being able to campaign for months and

17:56

months and months and ran a

17:58

relentlessly brutal

17:59

but funny and lighthearted

18:02

and devastatingly effective campaign

18:05

to change the way people think

18:07

about Doctor Oz. It was

18:08

so so impressive. Ian made sure that he was

18:10

framed as this out of touch

18:13

plutocrap. this is not gonna fight for you. I

18:15

mean, I also to, you know, we we talked a lot in the last

18:17

couple of episodes about, like, the

18:19

media narrative is mostly about the issues of

18:21

democracy and abortion. But,

18:23

like, when we were in Nevada

18:25

with the candidates there and we

18:27

were with Katie Porter down in Orange

18:30

County, like, Democrats in their speeches, in their

18:32

ads, like, they all had economic

18:34

plans. They were all talking to volunteers about, you're

18:36

gonna hear inflation when you

18:38

when you knock on the doors. Here's what you say

18:40

about inflation. Here's what you do it. And don't

18:42

forget to talk about protecting abortion access,

18:44

and don't forget. You know, like, it was just an

18:46

all of the above strategy and it worked. Yeah.

18:48

We were I actually just went to look

18:50

because Susie Lee, who we were with

18:52

in Nevada, and

18:54

is currently that was one that Ralston

18:56

thought we might lose just kind of up by

18:58

nothing. We'll see if it holds. Hopefully, it

19:00

does. When we were

19:02

doing a Canvas kickoff with

19:04

her, she ran through all these issues, democracy, ran through abortion.

19:06

But then she said, you're gonna get questions about

19:08

inflation. And here's how I want you to talk about inflation.

19:10

Talk about how serious it is. talk

19:12

about how we're the people that are address it. And I do

19:14

think, you know, we talked a lot in the run up about

19:16

how we felt like Democrats had

19:19

a cleaner argument on abortion than

19:21

they were able to make on inflation. But I

19:23

do think Republicans just

19:25

hoping that they could say, look at these terrible

19:27

Democratic cities, look how bad things

19:30

are, crime, crime, immigration, immigration, inflation,

19:32

inflation without having a clean message of

19:34

their own of what they're gonna do really

19:36

hurt them because doctor Oz had nowhere to

19:38

go. None of these Republicans has anywhere to

19:40

go. And if even if we're winning forty percent of

19:42

the people who said this was their most important issue, that

19:44

is a real failure

19:46

on the part of Republicans to make a clean message in a year where

19:48

they really could have sex. It was a massive

19:50

strategic miscalculation from

19:52

McConnell and McCarthy is they wanted to

19:54

be the generic alternative. And by

19:56

being the generic alternative who stood for nothing, they

19:58

created a vacuum that Democrats filled

20:00

with accurate pictures of their extremism.

20:03

And they did You know who else vacuum is Donald Trump? Yes.

20:05

Yeah. And a lot of their candidates But yeah. No. But in

20:07

the in the Supreme Court, but To contrast

20:09

it on to contrast it on

20:11

on a board abortion access in Dobbs,

20:14

Florida Republicans passed a

20:16

fifteen week abortion ban. So there

20:18

was a law in place that they

20:20

could point to and say, this is our

20:22

alternative. And, you know, look, Florida might have been just

20:24

sort of a uniquely weird situation in

20:26

the cycle, but Democrats didn't seem

20:28

to benefit from turnout

20:30

around the Dodds decision in Florida like they did

20:32

everywhere else. That is true. What do

20:34

we know about the outstanding vote in

20:36

Arizona, Nevada, and what's going on

20:38

with Georgia. Georgia's likely

20:41

to be runoff. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. That's an

20:43

easy one. We're waiting in Nevada. We

20:45

are we were we thought we were waiting

20:48

for the county Reno is in

20:50

and and Clark County, which where Las Vegas was in, and

20:52

we got some of the Reno vote and it

20:54

wasn't leaning towards Katherine Cortez Massimo

20:56

as we hope. So now as of as of

20:58

in in five minutes, we're gonna it's a we're recording this in

21:00

on the morning on Wednesday. five minutes, we're gonna find

21:02

out how many votes there are outstanding in Clark, which

21:05

will tell us if

21:07

Katherine Cortez Masstow can catch up. But either way,

21:09

even whatever we're gonna hear, it's gonna be

21:11

incredibly close Nevada. The fundamental

21:13

question in both Arizona and Nevada

21:15

is there was a

21:17

bunch of outstanding mail

21:18

vote. Some

21:19

portion of that mail vote is

21:22

mail ballots that were dropped off on election

21:24

day. There is some theory that those

21:26

mail drop off on election day voters

21:28

are actually profiled more like

21:31

in person election day voters who profile is more

21:33

Republican. So what you the split between

21:35

traditional mail balloting and in

21:37

person drop off on election day

21:40

it helps will determine whether how much

21:42

outstanding Democratic vote there is in

21:44

Arizona and Nevada. And

21:46

if it is we need a

21:48

ton in Nevada of we

21:50

need to win we need to win the

21:52

in person drop off at a very good

21:54

rate to make up the delta In

21:56

Arizona, the number of

21:58

in person drop offs and how those voters

22:00

profile will determine whether Masters

22:02

and Carry Lake can catch up to Kelly and

22:04

Hub. Yeah. And right now,

22:07

Kelly is outrunning Hobbs

22:09

by a few, so he's in better shape than

22:11

she is. So as you guys mentioned, George

22:13

is headed for a runoff. How

22:16

does Rafael Werner win

22:19

a runoff? Is it and is easier or

22:21

harder if the demos have already

22:23

won the senate by then? Here, I

22:25

wrote I wrote a couple I wrote a couple advantages and disadvantages.

22:28

Cool. advantage of procon list. Why

22:30

not? Here's a couple. Kemp Kemp was on

22:32

the ballot. He will not be on the ballot this

22:34

time. Democrats are genuine Is this a are these

22:36

these these are advantages for for worn out

22:38

for worn out. Yeah. I'm I'm doing it from the perspective of

22:40

Democrats. I don't know. Democrats are little

22:42

both sides. No. No sides, Zach. So, you know,

22:44

Democrats generally love

22:46

Rafa Wuorna because he's an incredible candidate, senator

22:48

and president, Republicans were holding their noses.

22:50

So that's and and

22:52

without having other Republicans, they have to churn out just

22:54

for the purpose of electing Mishamaka Fine. If

22:56

we managed to pull it out in Arizona, Nevada, the

22:58

fact that Senate Control is not at stake would make

23:00

revving up enthusiasm more important and would make it more

23:02

about the candidates themselves. And

23:05

then as in twenty twenty, once again, we'll

23:07

have a massive amount of Republican

23:09

in fighting as the kind of, you

23:11

know, the story unfolding Trump

23:13

and DeSantis. Trump Trump go to

23:15

Georgia. All of this arguing and that

23:17

was that was extremely helpful

23:19

in helping us gain the majority Wen

23:21

Warmack and John Osseth won

23:23

the day before the introduction. By the way,

23:25

Kayleigh McEnany was on Fox News this

23:28

morning, saying Rhonda Santos should go

23:30

to George jut and campaign and that Donald Trump should not. So I'm

23:32

sure that landed well at Mar a Lago.

23:34

Okay. The nineteenth hole. Yeah. Yeah. We're

23:36

gonna get to him now. God. he's

23:39

just -- There he is. -- doing. Pudding

23:42

and looking at Iwona's

23:44

grave and furious.

23:46

Got it. That's why They're blaming Melania

23:48

for doctor Oz -- Yeah. -- his future write

23:50

off. His yeah. And then

23:52

if now disadvantage, if Senate

23:55

Control is its stake, then it

23:56

becomes a massive

23:59

clusterfuck

23:59

with Republicans revving up the

24:02

base and That's what I'm I'm worried

24:04

about the hold your nose and vote for

24:06

Hershel Walker because even if you don't like him,

24:08

Senate controls it. Yeah. That's my decision.

24:10

That's my fear. That's my fear. I'm like so yeah.

24:12

It's interesting. The other the other question

24:14

is one of the take takeaways may have from this election is

24:16

that Democrats are now a better

24:18

midterm voting party because our

24:20

coalition has changed. And and and we do

24:22

very well in special we've done very well.

24:24

Always in virtually virtually the particularly well, special assembly. goes to

24:26

run off. This will profile as a special election. So,

24:28

I mean, you can sort of argue either way and then put

24:30

it on everybody to run off. The point if we

24:32

go to run off, Senate controls its

24:35

stake, we're all gonna be freaking

24:37

out and pushing everybody to everything they can be. Yeah. No one's

24:39

gonna know. And I think he has good

24:41

Democrats have a good argument there, which is senate

24:43

controls at stake, and this is about

24:45

Joe Biden's ability to fill a whole

24:47

bunch of judicial vacancies And

24:50

let's remember the reason that we're in this mess

24:52

because of dobs is because of judicial

24:54

vacancy. For sure. Yeah. Yeah. This is what's at

24:56

stake in this election. I mean, they got pretty clear. Yeah.

24:58

Check the check the Republican court. Make sure have the

25:00

ability to confirm is good. Although, you

25:02

know, stop Joe Biden from confirming any

25:04

more radical judges is also gonna work in

25:06

the decide. Pod

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28:49

Let's talk about the house.

28:51

So as Lovett mentioned, the fear going into the

28:53

election was the candidate quality would matter less

28:55

in house races. which would help Republicans pick

28:57

up anywhere from twenty to forty seats,

28:59

that isn't gonna happen. So what

29:01

did happen with the House? Dan, what do you think? And where

29:03

where do you think this ends up? It's hard to say. We there

29:05

are a lot of outstanding votes in California. We're

29:08

probably not gonna know the answer about a whole bunch of

29:10

California house races for

29:12

weeks maybe, but it looks

29:14

like it's gonna be very, very close. I think some

29:16

of the projections are somewhere between a one

29:18

seat Republican majority to a thirteen seat

29:21

Republican majority. depending on how some of this stuff

29:23

breaks. A lot of the places

29:25

Republicans had to win were in

29:27

purple and blue states. and

29:29

purple and blue states voted just like

29:31

in a presidential election, not in a midterm election.

29:33

It's certainly not like the midterm election we

29:35

expected. And so Democrats did

29:37

better and they won mostly in seats that Joe Biden

29:39

won. And with the one exception which I know we'll

29:41

get to. And so Republicans

29:44

then blew a bunch of races. They shouldn't have

29:46

blown, like some of the ones who talked about Ohio that were

29:48

Trump's fault. And

29:50

therefore, they they, like, they blew

29:52

up a historic opportunity to take the

29:54

house and a pretty spectacular

29:57

fashion. How much of a difference does it

29:59

make if Republicans have

30:01

a small house majority

30:04

versus a bigger one?

30:06

though

30:06

So Kevin McCarthy

30:10

by temperament and

30:12

f

30:13

flaws at the core of his being was always gonna be a weak speaker.

30:15

He just gives off a weak and

30:18

ability to be manipulated kind

30:20

of energy. him

30:22

were needing to keep his

30:25

entire caucus together where

30:28

342 whatever defections

30:30

means he no longer has majority to pass

30:32

things, makes him extraordinarily me

30:34

me makes him someone

30:36

who needs everybody, has to respond

30:39

to everybody, It also a lot of

30:41

must pass bills

30:44

into a real cluster fuck for

30:46

him. where if he's losing anybody and

30:48

all of a sudden it's do we shut down the government

30:50

or do I go walk over this walk across the

30:52

street, ask Nancy, walk across the aisle and

30:54

ask Nancy Pelosi for help, is gonna be a question

30:56

that comes up more frequently. So

30:59

and that will be in a in a climate in which

31:01

everyone is fucking furious at him for not

31:03

delivering the bigger majority. If

31:05

he does manage to become the speaker, which he still

31:07

probably will, but -- Man is up in the area. --

31:09

it's it's pretty fucked. It seems

31:11

like Marjorie to have a green and

31:13

that crew is going to try to

31:15

extract concessions from him to even,

31:17

you know, give there to in exchange

31:19

for their support for him being support. And look and

31:21

listen, you know, Donald Trump, engages,

31:23

you know, once every two years

31:25

on congressional strategy, and he's been

31:27

shouting about using the weapon of the

31:29

debt ceiling against Democrats.

31:32

So that that's coming. That train's

31:34

coming down the tracks. If the

31:36

Democrats cannot eliminate

31:38

or at least force all the debt ceiling confrontation And

31:40

that and that is not gonna be joke that is gonna

31:43

be really Joe mentioned here in Carson City to get that done. Yeah. Did you have

31:45

to do it in reconciliation to it? You mean during you're

31:47

talking about basically that they should do it during In the

31:49

lame dock. In the lame dock, we have one last chance to

31:51

this detonator out of the Republican's hands. But it's up to them.

31:54

It's up to Germany. They have to do that sentiment.

31:56

Yeah. But, I mean, the the other story of the house

31:58

is clearly

31:59

Rhonda Sanchez' strength in a in

32:02

a Florida gerry mander was enormously helpful. And

32:04

then for Democrats in New York,

32:06

the map we wanted got tossed

32:08

out. Thank you, Andrew Cuomo.

32:11

and we lost a bunch of seats there. I wonder though how much in New York,

32:13

Lee's Eldon running

32:15

a surprisingly

32:16

strong race kind of pulled some

32:19

of those those Republican

32:21

candidates over the finish line. Yeah. I wanted to ask

32:23

you guys about New York because, you know,

32:25

everyone's first reaction, and this is a correct

32:27

reaction, is like, oh, we

32:29

got screwed on the maps in New York. Right? And if

32:31

if that, you know, Andrew Cuomo's

32:34

conservative judges didn't

32:36

strike down the map we might win

32:38

the house, which I think is true. But

32:41

the seats that we're losing, including

32:43

Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the d triple

32:45

c, just lost his. are still Biden plus five

32:47

districts, all the way up to Biden plus fifteen.

32:49

And then Kathy Hockel only

32:51

is is five or six

32:53

ahead of Lee's Eldon. Chuck Schumer, who in

32:55

his previous two elections, has senate

32:58

one, sixty six percent, seventy percent is

33:00

in the mid fifties -- Yeah. -- after spending a

33:02

lot of money, you look at the upstate map, the

33:04

bottom fell out, a lot of upstate New

33:06

York, behaving like a lot of other kind of rural,

33:08

wider parts of the country, kind of kind of

33:10

reverting to the mean Yeah. There were there were a

33:12

lot of indicators on the Bad vibes

33:14

scorecard before the election. There was the

33:16

economy. There was inflation. There was

33:18

a lot of Trafalgar polls. We can get into

33:20

that later. then there was also the fact that the

33:22

president of the United States was campaigning in

33:24

Yonkers, which didn't make

33:26

me feel great about sort of the broader

33:28

trends or what numbers people

33:30

were probably seeing that have more access to data than I do, but it does

33:32

seem like there's a weird Florida and a weird New

33:34

York story this year. Yeah. I also say too, like so

33:36

it does look like we're losing couple of

33:38

these New York Congressional. We'll see what happens

33:40

when it's all done, but we're gonna lose a

33:42

couple by a point or two win, I

33:44

think, one by a point or two, which

33:46

means everything mattered.

33:49

And New York had

33:51

the chance to pass a couple ballot

33:53

measures. one of which would have kept the

33:55

better redistricting, the redistricting in

33:57

place, but also New

33:59

York Democrats didn't get behind

34:02

enough a measure that would have gone rid of this

34:05

antiquated requirement. They have to be registered ten

34:07

days in advance of election. and

34:09

that would have gotten rid of another dumb rule which

34:11

requires an excuse for absentee ballot. So,

34:13

like, New York has been behind in

34:15

how accessible voting is compared to

34:17

California, Colorado, and a lot of even Republican states.

34:20

They had an opportunity to fix it.

34:22

Republicans spent a ton of money to stop those

34:24

ballot measures. Democrats didn't

34:26

do enough. And it really could be that the control of the house at stake

34:28

in the fact that Sean Patrick

34:30

Maloney, who

34:32

kind of run a bunch of

34:34

shenanigans to put himself in place because he was the guy

34:36

that could win the seat and then loses. It's

34:38

just not been it's not a

34:40

great day to be

34:42

a a leader of the New York Democratic Party.

34:44

But what do the voters do? So

34:46

so I will I keep wondering.

34:48

Right? Like, why I I do think it might come

34:50

down to something as simple as there's cranky

34:53

people all over the country. Right? Wrong

34:55

track and all these exapoles was like off

34:57

the charts. in New York when it's just all

34:59

Democrats in charge from

35:02

local all the way up to state.

35:04

The only thing you can

35:06

do to express your distaste is to vote

35:08

against the democrats? Yeah. Of

35:10

course that yeah. Of course that's true. I mean, like, two things

35:12

can be true. One can be that democrats democrats

35:14

really fucked up strategically.

35:16

Another, does that you know, democrats

35:18

that that no. Another can be that

35:20

they just had a bad a bad a

35:22

bad night in a few cheap places. Although,

35:25

I will say that, like, you know, the district I I

35:27

my my district from growing up is sending

35:29

an insurrectionist to Congress. Right? Like,

35:31

there's it was a it was a

35:33

very bad day in your So

35:36

one of the biggest concerns about this midterm

35:38

was the number of

35:40

election deniers running for offices that would put

35:42

them in charge of our like governor, secretary

35:44

of state, just about all

35:46

of them lost. Though we are

35:48

still waiting on final results in Arizona and

35:51

Nevada and, you know, Carrie Lake could

35:53

end up being governor still, but there was a lot of

35:55

pearl clutching over Democrats employing various

35:58

tactics to boost some of these mega

35:59

candidates in

36:02

the primaries. Any lessons from the results? Any reflections on

36:04

the the Democratic meddling, the much

36:06

maligned Democratic meddling? The ends justify

36:08

the means. Sure

36:10

did. Look at somebody who lost a lot of

36:12

money in casino recently, you you can't win if you don't

36:14

plan. I

36:16

mean, listen. I grew up under the tutelage

36:18

of Mitch McConnell in Canada quality matters, and we learned that in a lot of places.

36:20

Where did you grow up? I was just

36:22

making Joe.

36:24

Yeah. So I want to be like, really good to know you were. Are you

36:26

guys engaged? Yes. Are you Josh

36:30

Holmes? Not a high help lobbyists.

36:32

Yeah. You got them

36:34

a a lobbyist in

36:36

Lyft, I think. It's so funny. No. Look. I

36:38

looked at it. I I realized there's a lot of of strategists and

36:40

people who are very upset. Twitter strategists and

36:43

people who are very upset by

36:45

this. But, like, this is one for and,

36:47

like, Democratic strategists, people

36:50

who work on these campaigns, the DSCC, the

36:52

d triple c, you know, they get

36:54

a lot of shit. they did really

36:56

well in this midterm. And, like, also,

36:58

in this strategy and others, like, let's

37:00

give these people their do they

37:03

did really well. I hate this

37:05

conversation because it takes place

37:07

in Twitter. There's a very black and white thing. Like

37:09

Democrats either did it. Yeah. You know? everything

37:11

that did was exactly right or exactly wrong, and it's different

37:13

in every single case. If we had not

37:16

meddled in Pennsylvania, Doug Massarano was

37:18

probably still winning that race. He won by, like, twenty

37:20

four points. You know, the same things likely happen in a couple other

37:22

places. And Trump endorsed

37:24

these people too. So was it the Democratic

37:26

ads or the endorsement

37:28

of the very popular with

37:30

Republican based former president who looms larger of

37:32

everything. We don't really know. But the point

37:34

is extreme candidates

37:37

are less electable. and we want to run against extreme candidates. There is

37:39

risk in that for sure. And when Kerry Lake

37:42

takes Arizona and succeeds from

37:44

the union, we may reap the

37:46

re some of the the whirlwind there.

37:48

But Which for some reason is so hard for people to

37:50

understand, especially Twitter people. Right? That

37:52

extreme candidates

37:54

easier to beat than than less extreme

37:56

candidates. But, like, would you have rather Maggie

37:58

Hasson run against Chuck Morris in New Hampshire?

38:01

I wouldn't have because now we could be sitting here talking about how

38:03

we're not gonna get the senate back. It's a

38:06

look, it's

38:06

we live in an uncertain world.

38:08

It is a decision to try to maximize

38:10

your your victories while taking a certain amount of risk. That is that is

38:13

looking to rebound to our benefit right now. It

38:15

could have gone the other way, but but you

38:17

make the best decision you can.

38:20

Also, one other part of this that always bothers me. You know, Democratic

38:22

consultants are not going door to door putting a

38:24

gun to Republican voters head. Yeah. It is based

38:26

on a theory, the theory being

38:29

their public debate has become so extreme and so

38:31

radical that if you show them how awful

38:33

these candidates are, they will

38:35

get behind them. and and show the other the

38:37

independent and Democratic voters in these states how

38:40

unpalatable and extreme the Republican

38:42

Party has

38:44

gotten stepping back and letting Republicans nominate someone

38:46

who is seems less extreme even

38:48

though that is not giving Republicans what

38:51

they actually want. is also a way of kind of covering

38:53

for what's become of the Republican Party. So why would we why

38:55

would we do that? Why would we help them? It's

38:57

not our job to fix

39:00

Republicans' public. and start job to beat

39:02

them. And in this case, we did. Yeah. And

39:04

in the, you know, the the examples that

39:06

worry me the most are, like, the Carrie

39:08

Lake example, But as to to as you point out, the the

39:10

type of meddling was different in every

39:12

election. And I think in that one, it was like

39:14

some Yahoo at the Arizona Democratic Party put

39:16

out a press release

39:18

saying that like, supported Barack Obama once, like Well, that's not a -- Right. -- that's not a

39:20

lot of meddling. And then and then in

39:22

Maryland, when Democrats helped,

39:24

you know, get a a far right candidate

39:28

into the nomination on for the governor's race,

39:30

Larry Hogan, the very popular Republican governor,

39:32

declared the race was over the next

39:35

day. And it was. And

39:36

we flipped the district. Yeah. We we flipped Maryland,

39:38

baby. Maryland. Massachusetts.

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43:44

So all this

43:47

talk of election

43:50

deniers brings us to MAGA King

43:52

Donald Trump, who might have had the worst

43:54

night of anyone This is now the third election in a row. He has for

43:56

the Republican Party. There are

43:58

reports that he's ripped shit, and that

43:59

everyone in the party is ripped shit

44:02

at him. Though, of course, they're

44:04

not saying it out loud or on the record. You know,

44:06

everyone's very afraid as

44:08

usual. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis just had the

44:10

best night of arguably any

44:12

Republican in the country. How does

44:14

last night change the dynamics of

44:16

twenty twenty four for Trump and

44:18

the GOP? I mean,

44:20

like, what Trump will always benefit from

44:22

is is he has an army of

44:24

of pundit, janitors,

44:26

mopping up term on prime time on Fox and news maps and

44:28

OAN. So they'll find a way to spin this.

44:30

But Ron DeSantis comes out of this

44:32

thing looking like a political force to be

44:34

reckoned with.

44:36

And that makes me happy in the short term because

44:37

it'll make Donald Trump very, very sad,

44:40

but it's nerve racking in the long term.

44:42

But I do

44:44

think like people who are looking for an alternative to

44:46

Trump are gonna see DeSantis getting

44:48

stronger and stronger. And like the people who

44:50

ran strongest

44:52

last night, were Republicans

44:54

were DeSantis and then

44:57

Brian Kemp in George Dudley

44:59

who kicks the favorite who kicked

45:01

the shit out of a hand picked Trump

45:03

candidate in a primary, and then one

45:06

overwhelmingly because of perceived

45:08

distance from Donald Trump that helped him to get

45:10

independent. So

45:12

I mean, unfares that was, you know. Yeah. Look, I mean, I wish Stacy

45:14

Abrams said one as well, but, like, you know, I I

45:16

think Trump attacking Kemp probably

45:18

helped him. So Look, it

45:20

was not a it was a very very bad

45:22

showing for Mongo World. I mean, it should come

45:24

as no surprise that Trump has

45:26

terrible taste. Yeah.

45:26

And, I mean, his choices for candidates, if Democrats hold on here, it

45:29

will it it will be Donald Trump's fault.

45:31

He gave the Republicans bad

45:34

candidates. that it easier for Democrats to

45:36

win. He caused them a whole bunch of house

45:38

seats. He caused them governorships. And

45:40

that that is on him, and that is only on

45:42

him. And we were trying to as

45:44

we talked before this election, this was gonna be this incredibly unpredictable election. And

45:47

what hurt Republicans is one

45:49

Trump picked bad candidates force

45:52

them on them. But then also, Donald

45:54

Trump is very, very unpopular. There were

45:56

only a small slice of people who

45:58

did not like Donald Trump who

46:00

voted for Republican. Joe Biden, also struggling in the polls,

46:03

but the much larger swath of people

46:05

who were not particularly pleased with Joe Biden were

46:07

willing to vote for Democrats. because

46:10

Donald Trump had to make this election about him. He picked the candidates. He

46:12

did the rallies. He teased his

46:14

presidential endorsement the night before

46:18

the election. Also, he made all of his handpicked

46:20

candidates embrace the

46:21

big lie

46:22

about the last election And

46:25

it turns out that's not very popular voters.

46:27

And didn't raise a hundred million and

46:29

spend fifteen million? I mean, he kinda like me.

46:31

He didn't do all he could here. He didn't leave it all

46:33

in the case. Let's chill out, you'd keep this talk up. He might

46:35

not Yeah. That's right. Alright. No. I I mean, the only way it could

46:37

have gone worse is if he had followed his if

46:39

only he had followed his

46:42

own instincts, and announced on Monday night -- No. -- that he was running.

46:44

That's the only way he could've gotten to

46:46

announce your next movie before your current

46:48

movie. Yeah.

46:50

I think he made a mistake. I think he should have announced this. Well, his instincts are right.

46:52

He got taught about it. He wanted to do it

46:54

Monday. Yeah. You know what was gonna do? He was right. He

46:56

was right. Well, now it seems much more that

46:59

we get a a Trump DeSantis

47:02

primary. And and and we're gonna now go through

47:04

another round of do the

47:06

conservative elites and the conservative

47:08

media have the sway

47:10

to actually help defeat Donald

47:12

Trump or are they just going to

47:14

fall in line? The Murdoch's this morning

47:16

are already fluffing DeSantis. They're on the new they've

47:18

been on that train for a while. On the New York, you

47:21

know, cover the New York Post -- Oh.

47:23

-- for DeSantis and some

47:25

of the Fox pundits have been talking up to Santos. Like you

47:27

said, Kayleigh McEnany, former Trump White House press

47:30

secretary. It's, you know There's a look,

47:32

who knows what's gonna happen?

47:35

we don't even we don't know if the sense is gonna do it or

47:37

not. Obviously, he's gonna be getting his phone is

47:39

just people telling him to run today. But

47:41

everyone seems to even the people

47:43

that maybe correctly say, hey, DeSantis is a much

47:46

better national figure for the Republican Party

47:48

in Donald Trump. They seem to skip this part

47:50

where that requires beating

47:52

Donald Trump in an election, and then him

47:54

doing what? Like, being cool

47:56

with that for a while. Like, you

47:58

know, like, it's like path

48:00

for veranda Santos becoming the Republican nominee runs

48:02

through Donald Trump either by either you lose to

48:04

him or you make him lose. And

48:06

Donald Trump losing to veranda Santos makes

48:09

it existential for Trump that DeSantis

48:11

go on to lose his ego requires

48:13

it. So it's like I don't see how all this.

48:15

I don't see how this DeSantis train

48:17

doesn't run into this, you

48:20

know, Trump

48:21

train?

48:22

Trump train.

48:24

Yeah. Thank you for having me there. I

48:26

was trying I was thinking it's a

48:28

dream. I was trying to

48:30

figure out, like, could Trump be I

48:32

forgot the word heard. a herd of cows on the tracks. That

48:34

wouldn't have been better. I don't think it would have

48:36

that. That's why that's why I hesitated. Alright. How

48:39

about Joe Biden? So How about

48:41

Joe Biden? His approval rating in exits again was the worst of any

48:43

post war president at this point in his

48:45

term, including Trump,

48:48

And yet he is on track to have the best midterm results of

48:50

any post war. President, how do we explain

48:52

that? What does it mean for Joe Biden's future? Senior

48:55

White House official told playbook this

48:58

morning he's running. Who wants to who wants

49:00

to take that first? Look, I mean, the

49:02

pink politics is pretty binary. Right? And the national

49:04

narrative will be like a win is a win is

49:07

a win. And they if I were them,

49:09

I would run out in front of as many cameras as I could and take credit for this. And I

49:11

think that's what's gonna happen today.

49:14

Whether these

49:16

results show, like, strength under the hood, I think is a far more

49:18

nuanced debate that is answered in

49:20

some of the exit polls. If if

49:22

we had woken up today,

49:25

and

49:25

we were looking at

49:27

the bloodbath, the scenario we were, you

49:29

know, worried that could be the case

49:31

on Monday night. Everyone would

49:33

be talking about Biden has to say he's not running, Biden's

49:35

done, Biden's done, Biden's done. And

49:38

none of

49:38

those people today are gonna say

49:40

that the opposite is true. But

49:43

Joe Biden is, he's well aware what people have said if he would have

49:45

lost. So how could he not view

49:47

this as a validation

49:49

of his case? I think

49:51

if you if you wanna try to unpack, like, what

49:54

role Joe Biden played in this, if you want to here

49:56

here are the positive things things that you say

49:58

is passing the inflation reduction

50:00

I gave democrats something to run on. That that

50:02

was no question a jolt of

50:04

enthusiasm for democrats. Remember how

50:06

depressing the depressed the

50:08

was in late July and August after, like, a raft

50:10

of failures. He also had didn't

50:12

Joe mention pass that? Someone named Joe

50:15

was involved. I don't really know. Just

50:20

Scarborough. And then he

50:22

also had unlike Trump had the self

50:24

discipline to not make it about himself.

50:26

Very obvious, the data showed that in the core battleground states,

50:29

president Biden and vice president Harris were

50:31

not going to be a net benefit with

50:33

the voters who were still

50:35

making their decision. So her husband was in

50:37

Yonkers and Kamalares was a UCLA. Yeah. And but she's, like, campaigning Georgia Drive.

50:40

Not an easy decision for politicians to

50:42

make. Right? They did they they

50:44

did that. what

50:46

it says about twenty

50:48

twenty four and his and his

50:50

ability to win, we don't really know that. And I don't

50:52

think we're you will ever know that. This is an

50:54

election that happened where

50:56

really it was not

50:58

about Joe Biden. And that was good for Democrats.

51:00

And then he, you know,

51:02

what comes next? We'll next minute to how

51:05

the next several months played out. He you know, I if he abides by you

51:07

know, besides the one random White

51:10

House aide, trying to send a

51:12

message to the FEC this morning via

51:14

playbook. The I mean,

51:16

Joe Biden's timetable as we've understood it

51:18

to date is that he would operate on the same

51:20

timetable that Brock Obama used for his reelection, which

51:22

was in announcement, I think ours was, like,

51:24

on April first or early

51:26

April of

51:28

twenty eleven. So we there's a several month period here. Some

51:30

of the reporting suggests that he's gonna talk

51:32

to his family and he's gonna talk to Jill

51:35

and, you know, confirm a decision that is leading

51:37

towards running, the next many

51:40

months play out will sort of shape that political

51:42

environment and will include likely some

51:44

pretty harsh confrontations with a

51:46

new Republican congress. Yeah.

51:48

The really negative indicator was the exit poll

51:50

that said sixty six

51:52

percent of respondents do not want Joe

51:54

Biden to run for president again. Now that

51:56

number can change over time when the economy

51:58

gets better, inflation goes down,

52:00

etcetera, but that would prob that no one likes that number. Well, wait

52:02

us. And you said if the

52:04

the economy gets better. I mean, I think this is so,

52:06

like, look. I

52:08

am a big fan of how Joe

52:10

Biden has governed as president.

52:12

I will forever be grateful for him

52:14

for the fact that he beat Donald Trump and got and

52:16

governed Donald Trump. he has governed really well. I'm a

52:18

huge fan of his agenda. He has

52:21

basically done everything that

52:23

the Democratic Party's base has asked him

52:25

to do that is within his power to

52:27

do. Right? And I do not think it

52:29

is his fault that we are dealing with

52:31

inflation right now, particularly because inflation

52:33

is up all over

52:35

the world. But if we if

52:37

inflation persists, if the economy tips into recession,

52:40

if there is some combination of both,

52:42

then, like, fairly

52:44

or not, he is going to be

52:46

held responsible by voters

52:48

for those economic conditions.

52:50

And we already saw

52:53

in this election how many people are holding him responsible for

52:55

that. And we already saw that all these Democratic

52:58

candidates who outran Joe Biden in

53:00

their states didn't have

53:02

Joe Biden campaign with them. They were

53:04

actively running ads, touting

53:06

their independence from Joe Biden, criticizing Joe

53:08

Biden on a whole bunch of

53:11

issues. saying that they don't vote with Joe Biden all the time, that

53:13

they disagree with him on certain issues. And

53:15

so, like, I do, you know, I

53:17

do wonder about like,

53:19

you're right. The White House is gonna tell this as like a big Biden

53:22

win, but I think it was

53:24

and I think he did everything that you

53:26

said Dan to help make that win possible.

53:29

But I think this was really democratic candidates in

53:31

these states sort of running their own race here.

53:33

And part of doing what it took to win

53:35

was not being in some of the key states

53:37

and key places. Yeah. Look, I also

53:39

think this is probably the least this is going to be the hardest

53:42

time to have a conversation about

53:44

this. Joe Biden

53:46

is having the best performance

53:48

in the near term of any president

53:50

besides George w Bush after nine

53:52

eleven. But again, that

53:54

we will face the same question

53:56

yeah,

53:56

a lot of people look at Joe

53:57

Biden and say, he's he's too old. That's what I'm talking about. That's

53:59

that's the

53:59

issue. And a

54:00

lot of people are gonna look

54:04

at it's

54:04

not just gonna be about do they want Joe Biden to run again. We're gonna same conversation we

54:07

had in twenty twenty, which is, like,

54:09

who is the alternative? Who is

54:11

gonna step up? is that a

54:13

valid alternative? And are those

54:16

people gonna start making that noise in the next

54:18

few months as the memory of this

54:20

midterm phase? And we start to kind

54:22

of understand the the broader environment that we'll be heading into. I

54:24

just think we don't know. When we dig

54:26

into the results here? This is well, like, a

54:28

lot of votes will be counted, but this is

54:30

undoubtedly a very, very

54:32

good effort democrats. We averted an absolute catastrophe, which a

54:34

lot of historical political indicators said should

54:36

have happened. We could have woken up

54:38

today, losing forty house seats, losing

54:40

the senate, losing,

54:42

you know, with big lie believers in terms

54:44

of the electoral apparatus in almost all of

54:46

the battleground states, that did not happen. Donald Trump

54:48

could have a burst of momentum behind them.

54:50

that did not happen. There are underneath it some, like,

54:53

tough questions or troubling trends that we are

54:55

going to have to

54:58

so with -- Mhmm. -- the electoral map got much more narrow.

55:00

Florida is gone. Ohio is

55:02

gone. I didn't talk about Texas, but not a

55:04

lot of good news at Texas. last

55:07

night. And the that the more narrow that map gets, the fewer paths the Democrat has

55:09

to two seventy. It also speaks

55:11

to a narrowing of

55:14

our coalition. and that we

55:16

continue to struggle with

55:18

in rural areas with white

55:20

voters not college potentially. We don't know

55:23

yet, but some erosion Some erosion with

55:25

black and the tina voters, we even though

55:27

they overwhelmingly support the democrats, well, that's in the

55:29

exit polls. We have to see in precedent

55:31

level data, if that's real. And what

55:33

we don't and then another one of those is it is very hard to run for reelection

55:35

if the vast majority of the country is not sure to run. Now that's how

55:37

we said that can change, we are going

55:40

to we can't allow the good news to which we

55:42

should celebrate and enjoy and take all of energy and not

55:44

worry about this until after the Georgia runoff. But

55:49

think about those questions because we have a lot of work

55:51

to do before twenty twenty four whether Joe Biden runs or not

55:53

-- Yeah. -- to address those things in the economy

55:55

is a huge part of that because a huge part

55:57

of it. I I think even more the age issue. Right? Like,

55:59

if

55:59

if we are in a

56:00

recession, there's inflation, it's I don't care who you are.

56:03

I don't care for the most talented politician

56:05

in the world. Yep. It's just really tough. And look, I

56:07

think the the upside of this is, the good news

56:10

here is, you know, we now

56:12

know that the the next Democratic candidate has

56:14

to win

56:16

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

56:18

Arizona, Georgia. Right? That's it. And

56:20

that that's the path. And we have now seen

56:22

we've we've been worried about like a

56:26

Democratic bench Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer,

56:28

hopefully Mark Kelly, John

56:30

Federman. Right? At Rafael

56:32

Warner, hopefully. Right? We have

56:34

just seen a whole bunch of

56:36

Democratic candidates, younger Democratic

56:38

candidates who are like mainstream

56:40

Democrats who united the progressive and

56:42

moderate wings of the party win in really

56:44

tough states like that's good news. Yeah. We got some people to model success. So

56:46

every candidate

56:46

should go and talk to the people

56:48

on John Federman's team to talk to them about

56:50

how they thought through and executed a

56:54

messaging strategy. everyone running a campaign should go talk

56:56

to organizers in Michigan to see how they

56:58

figured out how to flip the state house in the

57:00

senate, keep the

57:02

governor's race, take control of the

57:04

state government, keep the supreme court, the

57:06

AG, pass an abortion ballot

57:08

measure, voting rights ballot measure, and

57:10

then go hang out for a couple weeks with the Wisconsin Democratic

57:12

Party organizers who did an

57:14

unbelievable amount of work over the

57:16

course of

57:18

years building, organizing,

57:20

like putting together an organization in

57:22

an incredibly difficult state and are probably the

57:24

reason that we kept that governor's seat. Ben

57:26

Wickler is hero. Truly. I mean,

57:28

this whole team. Cannot even say how dangerous situation

57:30

we would be in right now. If Tim

57:32

Michael's Internet was the hero republican governor of

57:34

Wisconsin with the Republican legislature when it came

57:36

time to certify in the twenty twenty four votes

57:39

in Wisconsin. Oh, and by the way,

57:40

we said that the Democrat will never win in the state again.

57:43

And by the way, we should say that the Wisconsin Republicans

57:45

did not win a supermajority on

57:47

that legislature today. Which was Unfortunately,

57:49

to render Tony Evers like

57:51

just, you know, unfortunately, probably looks like we're

57:54

losing that Senate seat if it's not been called

57:56

yet. Yeah. I do also Oh, right. Yeah. It has been. As I

57:58

think too, like, look, we're recording this

58:00

on Wednesday. we could

58:02

have had this great night and still lose the

58:04

senate, still lose the house, that is very

58:06

much in play. But what I was feeling just last

58:08

night and watching this all come

58:10

in is I think a lot of us, all this

58:12

feeling of, like, do people care about these

58:14

things? Like, do they care about democracy? Like, do

58:16

they will they actually show up? Like,

58:19

does it matter that there are these people out there that that don't

58:21

believe in democracy that that won't that believe

58:24

the the twenty twenty was stolen?

58:26

Like, are is this breaking through? Like,

58:28

are these crime attacks

58:30

gonna work? Are people really like, are

58:32

people gonna be kind of buffeted by all this

58:34

misinformation and

58:36

propaganda? And This is another election in a row

58:38

where right wing fear mongering just

58:40

didn't deliver for them. It really didn't. And

58:42

it's and it's

58:44

another election where despite

58:46

our worst fears, there really is a majority

58:48

out there that is paying attention enough

58:50

to reject some of the most extreme and radical people.

58:53

and that continues to be true. And

58:55

I think that is a, like, broader reason

58:57

just to be hopeful as we head into this slog

58:59

of the next two years. Hey, Tina Kotak wins.

59:01

in the ordinary race. Pod Save America bounce.

59:03

Boom. Nice. More importantly,

59:06

any thoughts on the polls? Is this the

59:08

end for

59:10

Trafalgar who won the nad off? Is Simon Rosenberg or

59:12

God now? I think so. Yes. On Simon

59:14

Rosenberg. I mean, that's Dan. Correct me if I'm wrong.

59:17

It seems like good posters did well, shitty posters did badly.

59:19

Like Anne Seltzer nailed the Iowa

59:22

results. Yes. I think she got it identical.

59:24

The final New York Times polls

59:26

were good. But, like,

59:28

it was hard knowing how well,

59:31

Trafalgar did last cycle

59:33

to tune those pulls out. but

59:35

they had they had Bullock

59:37

beating Maggie Hasson in New Hampshire. They had

59:39

Zelda beating Hawken in New York. And they

59:41

had Michael Bennett winning by only one point in Colorado, and

59:43

he just mopped up. And, like, those are huge

59:46

misses. And what those misses

59:48

did is they

59:50

also impact did like the five thirty difficult

59:52

job of trying to figure out how to incorporate

59:54

or not incorporate

59:57

those pulling out fit. So, like, that

59:59

that's a hard job. I

59:59

I don't know how I would do it

1:00:01

better, but I do think it's a it's an

1:00:03

industry that is really struggling to keep, you

1:00:05

know, pace with methodology

1:00:06

to

1:00:08

account for no one answering the phone and then just these partisan outlets like

1:00:10

flooding the place. Whether it's because the

1:00:12

polls worked or we just got

1:00:14

lucky because Trafalgar has its ratings

1:00:18

because for the same reason that a broken clock is

1:00:20

right twice a day. They just have a pro Trump bias

1:00:22

in in in states that have that were Trump

1:00:24

over reforms they're right. And when

1:00:26

the other performs, they don't. But the polls were right. They're

1:00:28

just like, they are not they are not

1:00:32

precise instruments. they had something called

1:00:34

a margin of error. Right. These races fell within the margin of error as advertised. The

1:00:36

democratic panic that happened

1:00:38

over the the last couple of which I

1:00:41

very much felt over the week before

1:00:43

the election did not show up in the polls. It showed narrowing

1:00:45

in the polls, but didn't show Republicans winning, and then

1:00:48

Democrats ended

1:00:50

up winning the close

1:00:52

races by within the margin of

1:00:54

error of the polls. And and I do think one of one

1:00:56

part of the freak out was the fear that the

1:00:58

polls would show the same bias. that it had in the

1:01:00

previous races, and that didn't happen. Yeah. Yeah. Which that

1:01:02

was real for you? There there there still some

1:01:04

question, I think, in Ohio where there are some good

1:01:06

polls, you know, like a data for progress poll

1:01:08

kinda nailed the Tim Ryan JD Vance race, others had it much

1:01:10

closer than it seemed. Like, we I think

1:01:12

there's still a challenge in some of those states that have

1:01:14

a high

1:01:16

percentage of rural voters and non college white voters. Those are the Trumpier

1:01:18

states. But in general, polls

1:01:20

are supposed to give us a general idea of

1:01:22

how things are gonna go. They're not supposed to tell

1:01:26

us exactly gonna happen so we can modulate our emotions in advance. And they did.

1:01:28

And they say, you know, I like to live on a

1:01:30

roller coaster. Yeah. And I will say that, you know, New

1:01:32

York Times, Sienna, which is an

1:01:34

a plus poster. Like,

1:01:36

their their senate race polls and

1:01:38

those house polls were

1:01:40

very accurate -- Yeah. -- very close,

1:01:42

which was pretty good for them. And and I know they've worked

1:01:44

hard at figuring out the nonresponse issue, including, like, trying like,

1:01:46

paying some people to take it's a tripogger,

1:01:49

real clear politics, Bye bye.

1:01:51

No. We we don't we don't Yeah. That's your

1:01:54

you embarrassed yourself. And good for Simon

1:01:56

Rosenberg. Yeah. You know, Tom

1:01:58

Bonnier too. tell anybody who the who's So you're on a when you're using

1:02:00

this concept, I think. These are people who are very

1:02:02

frustrated. We talked about it a lot. We we talked we didn't have a

1:02:04

sense of the

1:02:06

new website. Simon Rosenberg Democratic strategist who, as we said

1:02:08

last pod, was saying

1:02:10

that the Republican leaning

1:02:12

polls flooding the zone were

1:02:16

screwing up the averages designed for a narrative. And Tom Beiner at target

1:02:18

smart, who's been on this part before as well.

1:02:20

He was modeling the early vote and

1:02:22

saying that the early vote was

1:02:25

not not definitely

1:02:26

showing a Democratic win, but at least not showing a red Yeah. That part

1:02:28

was definitely correct. So alright,

1:02:30

guys. Well, that's all we have.

1:02:32

We'll be back next week. and

1:02:35

hopefully we'll have a whole bunch more results to

1:02:37

talk about. But for

1:02:38

now, good night. Well done. For

1:02:41

everyone. Well done everyone. Yeah.

1:02:46

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